Tom Brennan: Fangraphs Mets Prospects; "Draft Miss" Tidbits

 

"HEY! WHERE'S MY GUY ON THIS LIST?"

Before I start:

Rumors, I've heard a few

But then again, too few to mention

OK, TO THE ARTICLE…

Fangraphs is a truly impressive website. 

It has SO much data on all teams.

It actually ranks many dozens of prospects for all 30 minor league teams, including the Mets.

Interestingly, in one of its data troves, it ranks the prospects in overall MLB order.

So, for instance, a Brennan favorite, Rhylan Thomas, is not in Fangraphs' MLB Top 100... or 200... or 300... or 400 ...or 500 ...or 600.  

Nope, he is # 603.

But, since there are 30 teams, divide that 603 by 30 and he is a top 20 prospect on an average MLB team.  Which is close to where I have him after his fine, first, full season, hitting .328 with solid defense.  

Paul Articulate's guy, JT Schwartz?  They have JT at MLB # 758!  

But, divide by 30 and you get #25 on an average MLB team's prospect list.  Pretty fair ranking, I'd say.

Both should climb in 2024. But Schwartz is not (yet) grading out as a Pete alternative.

Scary on this list, if you are a Mets maniac, is Kevin Parada. Fangraphs has him all the way down at #1003.  Divide that by 30 and you get a 33rd overall prospect for your average MLB team, which likely means that his defense and high K rate of concern to Fangraphs rankers.  

Not at all where you want the 11th overall draft pick of 2022 to find himself on this baseball-wide list.

I personally like Quick Nick Morabito a lot, but they only have him at #1,427, which is 48th in an average top 50.  Fangraphs, while wonderful, can make mistakes, is my guess!  Kidding aside, I expect Nick the Quick to jump 1,000 slots in the next 12 months. 

There are also inexplicably some bloopers in their list (e.g., DJ Stewart, Baty and Vientos, and others who are now gone, are in it.).  I think this tells me the list I accessed was last updated right after the July 31 trade deadline, at least that is my guess.  

Tomas Nido is listed as the Mets' 102nd "prospect", an unenviably poor ranking!  (Likely, he was included on the list in the first place because he was in the minors in August). So, you Nido lovers may wish to chew on that dismal assessment for a bit.

Joander Suarez was 93 slots above Nido, at #12, so that is interesting.

Joey Lucchesi # 82 round? No respect at all for 4-0, 2.89 as a Met Joey.

Fangraphs’ list also excludes recent draft picks, so the list clearly needs updating.  I imagine they will do so soon enough, and when they do, I will pass that list along - if I remember to look for it.

Of course, adding the draftees in would push Nido to # 110 or lower.

Anyway, here is an excerpt of a few columns from the top 105 Mets on their list.  The list was longer, but I stopped there.

Column B is the overall MLB rank in their database.  

Column A is my calculated rank, where I divided their ranking by 30 to get what would be a Mets-only ranking (highlighted cells were their highlights, not mine).

Whaddya think of the extracted list?

A	B	C
1	18	Luisangel Acuña
1	24	Ronny Mauricio
2	45	Jett Williams
4	108	Drew Gilbert
5	157	Dominic Hamel
8	227	Ryan Clifford
8	234	Blade Tidwell
9	261	Christian Scott
9	282	Jeremiah Jackson
10	308	Brandon McIlwain
10	313	Rowdey Jordan
12	355	Joander Suarez
12	357	Wilfredo Lara
12	359	Tyler Stuart
14	434	Danny Mendick
15	451	Carlos Cortes
16	481	Paul Gervase
17	508	Mark Vientos
17	520	Mike Vasil
18	545	Nate Lavender
19	565	Luke Ritter
19	574	Felipe De La Cruz
20	603	Rhylan Thomas
20	610	Jacob Reimer
21	618	Jonathan Araúz
21	619	Alex Ramírez
24	707	Wyatt Young
25	758	JT Schwartz
26	769	Matt Rudick
26	776	Saul Garcia
26	778	Stanley Consuegra
26	789	William Lugo
27	813	Jose Peroza
28	838	Douglas Orellana
29	873	Junior Tilien
33	1003	Kevin Parada
35	1057	Robert Colina
36	1073	Wilkin Ramos
38	1141	Marco Vargas
38	1153	Kevin Villavicencio
40	1189	Daniel Juarez
40	1205	Trey McLoughlin
42	1250	Mateo Gil
42	1253	Justin Jarvis
45	1342	Luis Moreno
45	1363	Layonel Ovalles
47	1404	Brendan Hardy
48	1427	Nick Morabito
48	1430	DJ Stewart
49	1472	Benito Garcia
51	1544	Joe Suozzi
52	1569	Ronald Hernandez
53	1591	Jefrey De Los Santos
54	1614	Yeral Martinez
56	1667	Cameron Foster
57	1722	Jordany Ventura
59	1759	Brett Baty
63	1879	Dylan Tebrake
63	1894	Eric Orze
64	1907	Jimmy Loper
66	1967	Vincent Perozo
66	1978	Yohairo Cuevas
66	1994	Eli Ankeney
70	2094	Tyler Thomas
70	2110	Nolan Clenney
70	2114	Jace Beck
71	2126	Karell Paz
71	2134	Joshua Cornielly
74	2215	Josh Walker
76	2275	Coleman Crow
77	2317	Hunter Parsons
82	2474	Joey Lucchesi
83	2494	Jordan Geber
84	2516	Jaylen Palmer
86	2593	Dedniel Núñez
87	2612	Drake Osborn
87	2622	Michael Perez
90	2705	Diego Mosquera
93	2793	Ernesto Mercedes
93	2802	Yonatan Henriquez
96	2889	Omar De Los Santos
96	2893	Candido Cuevas
99	2973	Jesus Baez
99	2976	Reed Garrett
99	2984	William Woods
101	3037	D'Andre Smith
102	3062	Tomás Nido
104	3127	Willy Fanas
105	3135	Wilson Esterlin
105	3143	Andinson Ferrer

DRAFT TIDBITS FROM  TIMES PAST:

As my next subject today, in 2008, Mets drafted Javier Rodriguez 68th overall, and he never got past Low A. 

# 96 that draft year? Craig Kimbrel.  You know, the guy who is 49-42, 2.40, 417 saves, 1,192 career Ks in 757 career innings.

The # 100 selectioncwas strikeout-prone Kirk Nieuwenhuis. 

No doubt, the Mets definitely pick Kimbrel at # 100, if he’d slipped by the Braves…right?

After all, their love for power draft arms shows no bounds (sarcasm here).

Maybe the Mets will sign the 36 year old Kimbrel for their pen this year. 

I vote YES. Steve Brennan is all in for Kimbrel.

The fact that he hit 12 opposing batters in 190 innings over the past 3 years makes me want him more, frankly. 

Toughness is valuable. 

And Kimbrel is tough.

Also, the Fangraphs prospect ranking above has previous year 5th rounder d’Andre Smith as the Mets’ #101. 

101 is better than 201, I suppose, but not meaningfully. 

101 objectively is not good. Tells me he is a MLB long shot.  

Heck, they have him ranked below extreme K machine speedy hitters Jaylen Palmer and Omar De Los Santos. The latter 2, in 2022 and 2023, fanned 625 times in 434 games. 

Palmer, though, was a 22nd rounder in 2018, a worthwhile gamble in that round - fine tools, and flaws in the tools sometimes can be fixed.

D’Andre Smith was drafted by the Mets in round 5 instead of a “112 steals Cardinal with 80 speed” named Victor Scott, a subject I discussed several days ago.  For that draft pick, folks excused the Mets’ pass as “the draft is a crap shoot, it happens.” I call it horrible decision making, the same sort of bad calls that had them pass on the great Craig Kimbrel 15 years ago. 

You have a guy available with 70/80 grades, you pick him.

Repeat after me: 

Draft Power Arms, Power Bats, Power Speed. 

Skip guys without those attributes in early rounds.