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11/29/23

Reese Kaplan -- More Prospective Bullpen Help for the Mets (2 of 2)


It seems that nearly every year since the franchise began in 1962 you hear the familiar refrain that "this year we're going to have to do something about the bullpen!"  Well, after the losing season in 2023 and the departures of both Adam Ottavino and David Robertson once again the Mets have relief pitching on their to-do list.  Monday we started looking at prospective support pitching choices.  Now it's time to continue that examination, again putting productivity and age somewhat ahead of being strictly for youth as they are seeking to do to fulfill other positional needs.


Who's in the Next Group of Bullpen Prospects?

Lefty reliever Andrew Chafin seemingly has been on the Mets lips as a potential late innings guy for the last several years but he's never made it to work in Queens.   At age 34 he's hitting the latter stages of a pitching career, but the numbers don't lie when it comes to his ability.  Coming off a bad 2023 split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, Chafin might become a little more affordable.  

For his career he owns a 3.40 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning pitched.  His control is not stellar but he's been able to withstand the 3.7 walks per 9 IP.  He was earning $5.5 million last season and likely will see that drop a bit for his new employer.

Young right hander Jordan Hicks broke into the National League for the Cardinals at the ripe old age of 21.  Now 27, he's got a career ERA of 3.85 with his season ending mark of 3.29.  What's truly impressive is his over 11 Ks per 9 IP mark though he's holding only a 2:1 ratio over the number of walks given in the same span.  The arm is quite live but there is the issue of control to consider.  Still, at his young age and modest salary of a tick over $1.8 million for the season that just ended.  


John Brebbia may not be a household name having spent his career with the Cardinals and Giants, but as he hits free agency he's definitely worth a look.  Now turning 34 he's delivered a career ERA of just 3.42 while exhibiting outstanding control for striking out hitters and limiting the number of bases on balls.  

His 2023 work was a little less stellar than other years, but at an ending salary of just $1.15 million he should definitely be a step up from some of the outgoing or already gone hurlers who did little to support the starting pitchers.  

Big righthander Robert Stephenson has had a somewhat mediocre career but might be turning into something of a late bloomer.  With a career ERA of an unspectacular 4.64 you have to look at recent accomplishments to decide if he's turned the corner.  In the past two years of 2022 and 2023 he has brought his ERA down to 3.38 after a midyear move from the Rockies to the Pirates and then the following year ended at just 3.10.  

If it was a hot week or a hot month you might write it off, but it's been now a year and a half showing good productivity and excellent control.  Turning 31, his ending salary was just $1.75 million.  Food for thought.

Young lefty Jovani Moran debuted and struggled in 2021 but rebounded in 2022 over 31 games for the Twins and was excellent, sporting an ERA of just 2.21 while fanning over 12 per 9 IP.  The control was not great but not awful.  Unfortunately he became a free agent after a very poor 2023 season and as such is yet another roll of the dice.  

At 27 years of age and being a southpaw he might be worth a gamble, but on the other hand the club has dismissed pitchers who could not measure up to one excellent year.  His ending salary was $726K and might be worth some consideration hoping Jeremy Hefner can help him rediscover what was working so well just a year prior.


While the former Brewer and Rockie Brent Suter may pronounce his name the same way as a Chicago Cubs Hall of Famer, his pitching is not that far off from what Bruce did in the majors.  While serving as a support reliever, this Suter has a career ERA of just 3.49 while winning nearly twice as many as he's lost.  He's not a strikeout specialist but he keeps the ball in and around the zone to limit the free passes.  Going into his age 34 season his last salary was a modest $3 million.  He's sefinitely someone that POBO David Stearns should have on his short list.

A blast from the past is long ago NY Met Michael Fulmer who was traded to the Tigers in the 2015 pursuit of a World Series title by acquiring Yoenis Cespedes.  That deal helped both clubs as Fulmer went on to win Rookie of the Year while Cespedes carried the Mets on his back towards October baseball.  Fulmer was a productive starting pitcher until injuries curtailed him and he was asked to reinvent himself as a relief pitcher.  Think Dennis Eckersley.  

He missed all of 2019 on the IL and then ended his starting pitching career poorly in 2020.  Since then he's appeared in as many as 67 games in a season and been a reliable reliever.  Now that he's a free agent he might be worth a reunion with the club that developed him.  His 2023 salary was $4 million and after a mediocre year for the Cubs he might sign for less particularly if it's for more than a single season.  

The San Francisco Giants were the unfortunate recipients of the one bad season Scott Alexander has provided during his professional career.  With a career ERA of just 3.29 the left hander is certainly going to find plenty of suitors.  The fact that he's not a strikeout guy is going to hurt him, but his stellar control will help.  With an ending salary of just $1.2 million there should be a long line of prospective employers interested in Mr. Alexander.

Going in the exact opposite direction is former Minnesota Twin hurler Emilio Pagán who had one of his best ever seasons in 2023 as he entered free agency.  Having played for 5 teams in a 7 year career doesn't sound like he's the solution to a team's bullpen problem, but a career ERA of 3.71 with strikeout ability and great control, he's someone on many teams' radar.  His last salary was $3.5 million and based upon a good 2023 he'll likely approach $5 million per year on a multiyear deal.

Big lefty Will Smith has been in the majors for 11 years already and delivered quality bullpen work.  He can strike people out and owns a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  The issue with Smith is going to be what is a proper salary.  For a career 3.67 ERA he's decent but not outstanding yet he had driven his salary up to as high as $13 million before plummeting to a $1 million deal.  Expect he will probably get $6 million or more per season as he enters his age 35 season.  Other lefties are less expensive but don't have as long a track record.

Pitching for the Rays, Marlins and Astros over the past seven years, Ryne Stanek owns a career 3.45 ERA with with a very strong arm and mediocre control.  He's not expensive having earned $3.6 million and would likely be appealing to many clubs who need bullpen help.  


A kind of bonus and unexpected name to see on this list is career superstar relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel.  He's seemingly been around forever and will likely have a plaque in Cooperstown when he finally hangs up his cleats, but for now he's still pitching at the latter end of his impressive career.  He owns a winning record, a career ERA of just 2.40 and he has saved 417 games while maintaining a WHIP of under 1 baserunner per inning pitched.  

For the Phillies last season he split closing duties and still got 23 more on his total.  His ERA jumped to a still palatable 3.17.  Maybe it's time to think of him as John Franco with Edwin Diaz being Armando Benitez.  Kimbrel's ending salary was $10 million for the Phillies and if he's no longer closing at age 37 then it's unlikely he will draw the same salary again.  However, even if he did, he's the new David Robertson but even better.  Maybe he's worth a long talk with David Stearns.

So there you have it...quite a few capable relief pitchers who only cost money to sign and not assets to trade.  Who is in your bullpen for the Mets? 

7 comments:

  1. Nice reliever recaps.

    Kimbrel jumps out at me. And my brother said “GET HIM!”

    However, his potential for the Hall of Fame may leave him desiring to pad his career saves totals elsewhere.

    Lots of arms to choose from, but lots of competing teams. We need about 4-5 pen guys.

    Not sure what Stearns thinks he can make work from current Mets minor leaguers as far as the 2024 pen is concerned.

    Hopefully, we find ourselves in February with a different conclusion than I’ve had in prior Februarys…a thin pen, where the flotsam and jetsam get called up to pitch far too many innings.

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  2. Kimbrel would be the ideal 8th inning guy to lead to Diaz. Make it happen.

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  3. The top of my list reads: Hicks, Stephenson, Fulmer (with Robertson in also in there).

    Will Smith also will provide another benefit - he has been on the winning World Series team each of the last three years!

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  4. Reese,
    Michael Fulmer will miss the 2024 season due to arm surgery. He would be a good sign for 2025 if we chose to acquire him.

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  5. Reese

    You have done a wonderful job of breaking out the best of the best here

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  6. I think Kimbrel would be a great set up option. Only issue is he may want to close for someone else and may want a 3 year deal knowing it’s his last big contract.

    Stanek could be a buy low option coming off a down year all though he walks a lot of batters. If we can get Kimbrel with two of (Rodriguez, Moore, Hicks, and Robertson) I’d be very happy.

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  7. Good job as always, Reese. But what about RPs Hector Neris, Dylan Floro, Wandy Peralta and a chance on Drew Pomeranz? Also, the Mets should consider Matt Moore as a quality lefty in the bullpen who gets out right-handed hitters.

    Above all, the Mets should try to sign Yariel Rodriguez who pitched in Japan last year.

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