We talked about the five top first basemen that probably will be one of the top 20 picked in the 2024 draft before we found that the Mets will be assigned the 19th pick in the first round.
So much for that direction.
Me?
I ditch the "best player available plan... God, please not another middle infielder... and target into the one position they have no top prospects in their chain... a front of the rotation starter.
There are some pitchers that should go earlier. Pure pitcher names like Seguro HS (AZ) LHP Cam Caminiti, and Ankeny HS (IA) RHP Brody Brecht should be gone. If not, strike up the band.
But these next five weekend starters could be around for the Mets to pick from:
LHP Hagen Smith -
Smith famously threw six no-hitters his senior year of high school, completely dominating the competition. That’s continued at Arkansas over his collegiate career, slicing and dicing up the competition with flashes of brilliance.
The book on Smith is deception and loud stuff. His delivery makes it extremely difficult to pick up his pitches out of the hand. It’s a herky-jerky, full-limbed delivery with moving parts, but that’s not to say it’s full of effort or that it isn’t repeatable. It is. It’s just unconventional with uncomfortable angles for the opposition.
Smith throws the kitchen sink. A four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a split-finger and a very nascent curve. He’s primarily a fastball-slider-split guy, though there’s pitchability here and a willingness to mix it up when the opportunity calls for it. His fastball has brushed 100 mph in side sessions, however he more comfortably lives in the 93-95 range and will grab the upper-90s in games on occasion. The real weapon is the splitter, a massive fading parachute that’s tormented hitters for the better part of three years. It flashes plus and is consistently an above average weapon. Smith doesn’t spin the ball particularly well, so improving that may be a developmental goal, but he does know how to shape a slider and that pitch too will sit above average and flash plus consistently in starts.
Smith projects a potential mid-rotation lefty if he can get his control and command of the ball up to more consistent levels. There’s a lot of Josh Hader in the overall profile here, and whoever drafts him may elect to throw him out of the bullpen quickly in his career and get him to the big leagues sooner rather than later. Should that be the case, Smith could live 96-98 with two real weapons capable of getting both lefties and righties out.
HEIGHT: 6-4 WEIGHT: 195
BAT/THROW: L-L
Josh Hartle had a lot of money offered his way in the 2022 MLB Draft, but wanted the opportunity to grow and develop inside the Wake Forest Pitching Lab. That appears to have been a good idea. Hartle is a tall, lean, projectable lefty with a prospect pedigree and the ability to pound the zone. He's a five-pitch guy with a sinker-slider-changeup arsenal, working in a curveball and cutter that are usable.
Hartle lives in the low-90s but projects to throw harder with added strength. His slider is a sweeper with huge depth and the changeup really fades back off the slider tunnel. Those two offerings have produced immense whiff rates in the ACC. Hartle has a good frame and can really mix it up. If his stuff ticks up, he has first round qualities.
HEIGHT: 6-4 WEIGHT: 205 BAT/THROW: R-R
Hurd has the makings of a potential number one overall pick with a strong mixture of size, athleticism and pure stuff on the mound. He battled a back injury during his freshman campaign at UCLA, but a now-healthy Hurd has his sights set high on a big junior year at LSU.
Still reasonably green on the mound, Hurd can rush it up to 96, sitting 92-94 over most extended innings. His best pitch is the slider, and it's a banger. Hurd can induce north of 3000 rpm on his breaking ball, featuring strong depth and some sweep as well. He's more than willing to throw it too, posting rates around 30% thus far. Hurd also throws a deeper curveball in the upper-70s with tremendous depth and a ton of sweep. It projects a true plus curveball.
If Hurd can stay healthy and the velocity continues to tick up like many expect it will, it's top-of-the-rotation upside. He's battled command and control woes over the course of his collegiate career as well, so there's work to be done. But it's hard not to like the guy.
RHP Joey Oakie -
6-3 195 Ankeny HS (IL)
Oakie is a hometown Iowa commit with big, projection stuff and two-way potential. Most feel his future lays on the mound where his fastball really plays. He'll sits 94-96 in early innings, settling in 92-93 out of a low launch with tremendous spin and life at the top rail with bat-missing traits. Oakie projects to throw a lot harder due to fairly elite scapular load during his arm action, as well as top-of-his-class explosive athleticism. The slider here could end up plus too. It's a sweeper that'll approach 3000 rpm coming out of the exact same tunnel as the heater.
Oakie throws his sweeper in the mid-80s with tremendous arm speed and conviction. As he learns to add a fading changeup that can live off the fastball, he'll be an extremely tough look on both lefty and righty bats. He's loose and repeatable, staying in the strike zone on most occasions.
This is one of the best arms in the class.
RHP Ryan Sloan -
6-4 220 York Community HS (IL)
Sloan, a Wake Forest commit, has a live arm. He’ll work up into the mid-90s and settle in 92-93 over longer outings. His fastball has a ton of arm-side run. He’s been known to create firewood. Sloan’s sweeping low-80s slider tunnels perfectly off the heat, and it’s been a whiff magnet featuring solid depth. There’s a mid-80s changeup here too, though he’s only used it against LHH and he’s been primarily a two-pitch artist.
Sloan and his 6-foot-4-inch, 220-pound frame figure to add considerably more velocity as he matures. This is what a premium high school arm looks like.
Those 5 pitchers sound great. Hope we can get one such dude.
ReplyDeleteSlipping all those spots due to gross overspending hurts. Hopefully all 7 of those won't be gone by the time the Mets draft.
Another non-winning Mets year, as Howie Rose might say, is being "put in the books."
Let's hope the book next year isn't written by Stephen King.
I fear a full rebuild of the team that will scout and pick future players will take 4-5 more years to pan out
DeleteWe should draft only pitchers in the first 5 rounds
ReplyDeleteIf they don't turn out to be questionable as the 6 current top pitchers in the system seem to be
DeleteOk, time to accept reality and realize that the overspending got us:
ReplyDelete- A 101 win season that should have been at least 102 had somehow the team not choked in late September.
- Two aging aces that were in turn traded for hopefully at least two all-star players, maybe three if we are real lucky.
- A chance to accept that money doesn’t buy happiness because if they didn’t do it, Cohen would have been labeled a fraud. As it turns out, people still want to see him throw tons of money away simply because.
I think the Mets can get at least two of those guys. Comically, they really haven’t drafted many middle infielders lately, but it’s our perception going back to the Alderson years. Lately, it’s been Mauricio (an international free agent signing) and Vientos. That’s it. They have already moved Williams and Morabito to the outfield. They traded Kelenic and PCA and they drafted Dunn and Peterson.
A side note to this article, I just realized that another first round pick that the Mets couldn’t come to terms with two years ago, had Tommy John surgery (no surprise honestly) less than a year after he was drafted #3 by the Texas Rangers. Said prospect is already 24 and will be 25 1/2 when he picks up where he left off in High A+ ball. That’s wild to consider that he may not make the majors until 27 and possibly 28.
ReplyDeleteOne thing you can't predict is an injury.projection on a draft candidate but you can avoid drafting players that have already have had nagging injuries or procedures like TJS
DeleteMy new year's resolution...
Get Gus to write for us
Thank you Mack, but I have committed to someone else when I’m ready to write again. Thank you. I enjoy the site and appreciate the difficulties that come with putting out a daily article: like it’s a job.
DeleteBig question mark is how many of Vientos, Baty, Gilbert, Williams, Acuna and Mauricio become full time major leaguers and a real DH for once also what DS sets the pitching staff up to be so probably this year is a lets see year for Mr. Stern barring anything out of the box here. The other big question is can we sign Soto away from the Yanks next winter as in my view that will only be possible if they don't want to upset the salary structure which prevented them from a higher bid on Yamamoto.
ReplyDeleteGus should be writing for us. Agreed.
ReplyDeleteWhat would make an interesting study is what % of pitchers and what % of hitters drafted in the first round from say 1999 through 2018 made it (20 years, stopping the period after that since the success of a few first rounders in 2019-21 is unclear).
ReplyDeleteMy guess is arms blow up, and perhaps the % is 65% pitchers, 90% hitters. I imagine some clubs shy away from drafting first round pitchers, fearing the arm blows and the pick turns out to be a bust.