The Mets have had a few shrewd, bright moments over the decades.
Like when they got Keith Hernandez, RA Dickey, Bartolo Colon, David Cone.
More often than not, though, they had made dumb decisions.
Like almost winning the World Series in 2015, in large part because of the Daniel Murphy ascension, and then not paying a relatively paltry amount to keep him, instead letting him go to a very tough Nationals team.
Had Murph stayed a Met, likely the 2016 and 2017 seasons would have come out entirely better for the Mets than they did.
Other mistakes ensued, like Travis d'Arnaud being dumped from a team with poor catching talent, but let's move forward to the near-present.
In 2022 and 2023, the Mets spent a supertanker load of cash on two old, future HOF vets, Herr Scherzer and Vladimir Verlander.
The Mets assumed that surely, the sands of time would not trickle through the hourglass for this immortal duo, and that they would somehow remain supremely great into their 40s.
Scherzer was signed by the Mets for $130 million over 3 seasons. His $43.3 million per season exceeded the then-MLB all-time record for average annual value.
He went a solid 20-9, 3.02 over 1 2/3 seasons for the Mets; certainly not bad, but not $130 million worth of "good".
He was then traded to the Rangers in exchange for prospect Luisangel Acuna (Matata), who might turn into a star with a trouble-free philosophy, but might also turn into just a solid utility player, and for cash relief in 2024. Spotrac shows the Rangers on the hook for only $13 million of Scherzer's $43+ million salary in 2024 from a salary cap perspective.
Since all of Max's salary was subject to heightened luxury taxes, his net cost to the Mets in exchange for 20-9 and Acuna will end up being roughly $200 million. Unless Acuna becomes a superstar, this Mets signing of Scherzer wasn't terrible, cost-wise, but I'd say it wasn't great.
My brother disagreed, citing the Mets' dearth of talent and desperate situation. And Max almost helped them to the division title in 2022, he added.
Verlander's Mets deal? Per ESPN at the time:
"Verlander signed a two-year, $86.7 million deal with the free-spending Mets. His contract also included a $35 million option for 2025 that vests if he accumulates at least 140 innings in 2024, a circumstance that scared teams away. The Mets will pay $35 million out of the $58 million remaining on Verlander's deal in 2023 and 2024 and $17.5 million of his 2025 option if it vests" (which I assume it will).
Thus, the Mets' outlay for JV will be $80 million.
For that, the Mets got 6 wins, 5 losses, and a 3.15 ERA in 16 starts, and also Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.
Perhaps not that bad a deal, except when you consider that the luxury tax will likely turn that $80 million outlay into $150 million. Unless Gilbert and Clifford become stars fairly soon, that Mets' Verlander signing? Well...it sucked, too. Even if seemed swell at the time.
Worse, the $42 million the Mets owe in 2024 to Scherzer and Verlander will almost certainly keep them sequestered in luxury tax hell, a true hindrance when considering the signing of new crops of the top free agents.
The $17.5 million due to Verlander in 2025 continues that brutal hangover.
Add to that the $8 million still due Mighty Miserable McCann in 2024 from his terrible signing, and Spotrac shows the Mets are being crushed by $65 million in payroll costs (for tax purposes) that are no longer on the team.
And are on the hook for nearly $21 million due to sore-groined Starling Marte, in both 2024 and 2025, and the luxury tax pain is almost inescapable.
Marte was fine for 5 months of 2022 in the first year of his expensive 4 year deal, but his injuries and advanced age (35 in 2024, 36 in 2025) leave one to conclude that the Mets, after effectively overpaying for Marte's low production in 2023, may well get nowhere near full salary value for those two Marte seasons.
I often think about a similar former "decent power + blazing speed" Mets player, Jose Reyes, who I thought would slowly decline into his late 30s, but instead found his career plummeting to its rapid conclusion at age 35. Marte perhaps could become a similar age-related casualty.
McCann since the Mets (and then Baltimore) acquired him has had 756 at bats, 32 doubles, 19 HRs and 90 RBIs while hitting .220.
Not terrible, actually, I have to admit. It felt worse to me.
Terrible, though, was the Mets eating 80% of the cost of the last two years of his contract to get Baltimore to take him, while the Mets signed Omar Narvaez to replace sweet baby James for a lot of $$ and even lighter 2023 production.
And McCann's and Marte's salaries?
Their committed $$ amounts result in not only huge salary cost, but beaucoups accompanying luxury tax.
Luxury taxes are a brutal penalty for any team, even a Cohen team, to deal with, and the impact on first round pick damage is an added horror.
There also is the negative draft impact of exorbitant spending.
"Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
What a mess. What (in hindsight) a stupid way to run a franchise.
Hindsight is easy for a guy as near-sighted as me.
Fast-forward to today, when premier free agents look at a financially-hobbled, performance-hobbled Mets team that won 75 in 2023 and seems in flux, and those free agents think, "I will feign interest and get the Mets' best offer and then see if the teams I really would consider can match it."
Bad decisions can lead to long-term franchise malaise.
There is a reason it has been almost 4 decades since the Mets won a World Series.
Many reasons, actually.
Stupid decisions being the main one. Bad decisions being another. Add in bad luck and you have the trifecta.
Mack, no doubt, can think of several more.
Hopefully, Stearns is the baseball genius we all hope he'll be.
KINER AND GUILLORME
No, not Ralphie Boy Kiner, not the one who dated Elizabeth Taylor, but Isaiah Kiner-Falefa.
Kiner II just signed a 2 year, $15 million deal as a free agent with the Blue Jays, indicating there is real perceived value in that Falefa player.
Kiner-F in Baseball Reference is projected to put up a 2024 slash line of:
.261/.317/.362
Luis Guillorme was dropped off the 40 man by the Metsies. Perhaps he could have been retained on the 40 man, and then traded. I don't see why not, if Baseball Reference projections are at all reasonable.
For Luis G, Baseball Reference is projected to put up a 2024 slash line of:
.259/.337/.371
Compare those 2 slash lines. That of Luis is a little better than the man who grew up in Kiners Korner.
Another puzzling thing for me. Guillorme only made $1.6 million in 2023, so he'd be a lot cheaper in 2024 than $7.5 million. Maybe low $2 millions.
Any opinions on whether they should have retained and later traded Luis instead?
A late entry to the article list today. I was in a bashing mood.
ReplyDeleteWe seem to always be writing negatives about this team.
ReplyDeleteNot you Tom.
We
It's been a long time since Beltran didn't swing at that third strike
Positives?
For me?
Nothing was more electric than Harvey in that WS game
And, Mack, remarkably, the Mets blew that Harvey game. That's a Mets motto. When it is time to not blink - the Mets blink.
ReplyDeleteHad they won that winnable world series, the level of moaning from Mets fans would be much more muted.
In fact, had they won in 2015, perhaps Cohen would have had far less urgency to go for broke, with bad risky bets following.
Thinking 1
ReplyDeleteTo me, this off season "kind of reminds me a little too much" of the Wilpon Era. But do not fret, because the off season is not yet over.
I tend to think "outside the box" because that is basically where I was born. So bear with me some on my ideas below.
My current thoughts
1. If possible, I'd probably go after Japanese Lefty SP Shota Imanaga over RSP Luis Giolito. The Mets obviously need more lefty starters in their rotation, and Shota has been consistent throughout his career thus far in Japanese baseball. Giolito has a downside career record and unfavorable stats of recent, with a high ERA. He may be another gamble starter, like we saw in 2023. The Mets need to stop bringing in arms based on mostly hopes and past accolades no longer available to that starter. Like pitchers who have established injury concerns, or are ancient mariners to this game. Instead, try to get pitchers in here that are up and running, and have recent performance consistent to a higher level. So Shota over Luis is my recommendation here with this.
2. Do the Mets "have to trade" Pete Alonso now to get a really top-end starter more to give this 2024 NYM season real hope? A: No.
Pete has already stated that he wants to remain with the NY Mets beyond this season. If another trade were necessary for another starter, I might instead trade from greater depth. Perhaps 2B/LF Jeff McNeil would bring back something of decent value starting pitcher wise, although Jeff too would be missed here. The Mets have Jose Iglesias now, who could man second base for '24, with this type of a trade happening with Jeff. They also have Angel Acuna getting ready for second. Depth is prescribed.
3. The Mets need to be more careful with the current list of pitching injury arms then in recent seasons. If pitchers show they are 100% healthy again in like ST, then it's "Bingo Land" for this team with them. If not, a Plan B is advisable here. It's the pitching that will make or break the 'NYM 2024 season, and we all know this having followed this ballclub before.
4. If possible, can we bring back Bartolo Colon as a coach for 2024? The guy has the perfect personality for keeping teams together and having fun, which is at the very base of building a great MLB team. I have forever missed Bartolo here since he left NY. The fans and players all love him.
Thinking 2
ReplyDeleteHere's a quick preliminary plan:
1B Alonso
2B Iglesias
SS Lindor
3B Baty or Vientos (based upon their ST success)
LF Marte
CF Nimmo
RF Drew Gilbert
C Alvarez
DH Stewart
SP (in order 1-5)
Senga, Imanaga, Severino, Lavender, Megill
Why?
A: Because this isn't your Grandpa out there pitching like it's 2023 all over again. This has the potential to be a solid rotation. Regarding Nathan Lavender, he sort of reminds me of a left-handed version of Nolan Ryan as a young rookie here. Fabulous and powerful arm. But Lefty Lavender definitely has the pitch control Nolan did not while in his formative Mets seasons. I would love to see Nathan possibly stretched out and made into a starter for 2024. If he agrees with it of course. It would give us both he and Imanaga from the left-hand side starting. Balance. Then sometime after the All-Star Break, I am hearing that we might even see the arrival of RSP Mike Vasil, for the Playoff Run.
This 2024 rotation is of course not cast in stone yet, it's just way too early on. This will be largely based upon these starters ST successes as well. There are other starters I would work in for ST looks. Namely Quintana, Houser, Lucchesi, Butto, and D. Smith. The beauty of having these additional pitchers onboard above, is that any or all could easily go into long or set-up relief if the rotation inn is full.
RP (Thus far and early on)
LRP Raley
Hartwig
Closer Diaz
Also relievers to get ST looks:
LRP Walker
Tonkin
Lopez
LGM!
Interesting - but I give Eric Orze a long look at relief, after his shaky 2023 with a brilliant finish, and would be surprised if the Mets made Lavender a starter, given that his commendable work has been out of the bullpen.
ReplyDeleteI am still hoping that Paul Gervase K rate means he is a real bullpen candidate by 2nd half 2024.
Why did Iglesias not play in the majors, and not that much in the minors, in 2023? Injured? He had a solid 2022 with the Rockies.
I forgot even that the Mets signed him.
Hi Tom,
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to chime in on Luis Guillorme.
The reason I believe he is no longer here, besides being fat and slow for a utility infielder. I think Luis's father complained to MLB about the way he was shuffled up and down to the minors and his time spent on the injured reserve.
I believe that is the only reason(s)he is not on the team.
Joe P, the "fat and slow" part I concur with. He puzzled me with his Daniel Vogelbach Mini Me look last year. How do you allow yourself to carry too much weight for your size? Hopefully, whomever he plays with this year, he loses 20 pounds.
ReplyDeleteThe other part is not implausible, I imagine. If I were Pap, I'd have been unhappy, too, but the Mets had so many guys up and down as if they were on yo yo strings - David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi were two of the biggest victims.
I guess the answer to that is play more invaluably and it won't happen.
Wow,another toxic clubhouse! Let’s run with it. Or maybe Alonso was behind it.
ReplyDeleteNow Giolito is off the table and all is still silent in Metsland.
ReplyDeleteOnce they took away the shift, Guillorme's lack of range was exposed and putting on the pounds didn't help.
ReplyDeleteWendel and Severino are good signings but they need more.
ReplyDeleteGood comments, gents. The homer-prone Giolito goes to FENWAY(!) on a 2 year, $38.5 million deal? Wow!
ReplyDeleteHe gave up 24 HRs in 72 IP in the second half of the season!