Reese Kaplan -- What If Everything Goes Right With the Offense?

If you talk to fellow Mets fans there is rapidly growing uncertainty about what to expect with the 2024 team.  Some are beyond frustrated with the seeming inactivity to improve the roster with prime level talents.  Others are preaching patience while awaiting the final four roster spots to be added between now and the beginning of Spring Training.  The truth is not really known but the current seeming inertia is harder to accept than good or bad decisions.

Let's play optimist for a moment and try to ascertain a glass half full scenario for the offense.  

Pete Alonso obviously has major home run talent and is a feared hitter in the middle of the lineup as achieving the century mark in RBIs has come to be expected.  Last season's .217 batting average was especially bad yet the power hitting remained formidable.  The contract issues are another matter entirely.  Let's assume he reverts to a 2022 type of season when he hit .271 with 40 HRs and a league leading 131 RBIs.  Suppose Alonso repeated that level of prowess?

Jeff McNeil got rewarded for his 2022 batting title season with a contract extension to compensate him for the Tony Gwynn-like output he provided.  That season he hit .326 with 9 HRs and 62 RBIs which were an acceptable level having routinely hit outside of the middle of the batting order.  Last year like most of the Mets he underperformer with his average dipping down to an otherwise respectable .270, but after a 56 point drop many were concerned that he just wasn't as good as had been the belief which led to the contract.  Chances are he will rebound as his career batting average is a robust .298.

Francisco Lindor has gotten over the initial misgivings fans had when he didn't arrive and appear to be the $341 million dollar man.  He had a commendable 2023 with 31 HRs, 98 RBIs and 31 stolen bases to go with a substandard .254 batting average.  Given his power, speed and defense people were willing to look past that last number as his season was worth 6.0 WAR.  That season followed a 2022 year in which he delivered at a 5.5 level.  He is certainly earning his pay.

Brandon Nimmo when drafted was thought to be a bit of an odd choice with limited competitive baseball on his young resume, but he's gotten past a myriad of health problems to become a dependable top of the order player.  For the second year in a row he hit .274 but this time upped his power output to include 24 HRs jumping up from 16 and 68 RBIs which is pretty impressive considering he hits leadoff.  

Perhaps no one is more important for the offensive production for the upcoming season than hopefully fully recovered Starling Marte.  Yes, it's hard to remember what he's capable of doing after a forgetful 2023 fraught with the injury hampered output of just a .248 average with 5 HRs and 28 RBIs in little more than half a season of playing.  The one surprising positive number was 24 stolen bases over those 315 ABs.  Think back to 2022 and then he hit .292 with 16 HRs and 62 RBIs.  Imagine for a moment he returns to that level of production.

No one knows exactly what to expect from catcher Francisco Alvarez, but his forced promotion to the majors at age 21 demonstrated that he is for real.  In 382 ABs he hit just .209 but hit 25 HRs and drove in 63.  Over the course of a full season it's certainly reasonable to assume he could advance to 30 HRs and 80 RBIs, particularly if his batting average improves.  

So given all of these positives that could indeed happen, it's understandable that for now the remaining three offensive players Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and an as yet unidentified outfielder could add significantly to the hitting other teams' pitchers must face.  If, for example, Baty hits 20 HRs and Vientos slugs 25 then those numbers are a great improvement of what was seen last year.  

The big mystery right now is the outfielder (assuming Vientos is assigned as the DH).  The numbers 4 and 5 have been addressed with D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor, but who will join Nimmo and Marte in the starting lineup?  It is assumed the club wants someone who can provide protection in the batting order for Alonso and Lindor.  That kind of bat won't come cheaply but as of now the club hasn't really spent anything of signficance.  Here's hoping David Stearns has both a plan and the ability to execute it.