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12/30/23

Reese Kaplan -- What If Everything Goes Right With the Offense?


If you talk to fellow Mets fans there is rapidly growing uncertainty about what to expect with the 2024 team.  Some are beyond frustrated with the seeming inactivity to improve the roster with prime level talents.  Others are preaching patience while awaiting the final four roster spots to be added between now and the beginning of Spring Training.  The truth is not really known but the current seeming inertia is harder to accept than good or bad decisions.

Let's play optimist for a moment and try to ascertain a glass half full scenario for the offense.  

Pete Alonso obviously has major home run talent and is a feared hitter in the middle of the lineup as achieving the century mark in RBIs has come to be expected.  Last season's .217 batting average was especially bad yet the power hitting remained formidable.  The contract issues are another matter entirely.  Let's assume he reverts to a 2022 type of season when he hit .271 with 40 HRs and a league leading 131 RBIs.  Suppose Alonso repeated that level of prowess?

Jeff McNeil got rewarded for his 2022 batting title season with a contract extension to compensate him for the Tony Gwynn-like output he provided.  That season he hit .326 with 9 HRs and 62 RBIs which were an acceptable level having routinely hit outside of the middle of the batting order.  Last year like most of the Mets he underperformer with his average dipping down to an otherwise respectable .270, but after a 56 point drop many were concerned that he just wasn't as good as had been the belief which led to the contract.  Chances are he will rebound as his career batting average is a robust .298.

Francisco Lindor has gotten over the initial misgivings fans had when he didn't arrive and appear to be the $341 million dollar man.  He had a commendable 2023 with 31 HRs, 98 RBIs and 31 stolen bases to go with a substandard .254 batting average.  Given his power, speed and defense people were willing to look past that last number as his season was worth 6.0 WAR.  That season followed a 2022 year in which he delivered at a 5.5 level.  He is certainly earning his pay.

Brandon Nimmo when drafted was thought to be a bit of an odd choice with limited competitive baseball on his young resume, but he's gotten past a myriad of health problems to become a dependable top of the order player.  For the second year in a row he hit .274 but this time upped his power output to include 24 HRs jumping up from 16 and 68 RBIs which is pretty impressive considering he hits leadoff.  

Perhaps no one is more important for the offensive production for the upcoming season than hopefully fully recovered Starling Marte.  Yes, it's hard to remember what he's capable of doing after a forgetful 2023 fraught with the injury hampered output of just a .248 average with 5 HRs and 28 RBIs in little more than half a season of playing.  The one surprising positive number was 24 stolen bases over those 315 ABs.  Think back to 2022 and then he hit .292 with 16 HRs and 62 RBIs.  Imagine for a moment he returns to that level of production.

No one knows exactly what to expect from catcher Francisco Alvarez, but his forced promotion to the majors at age 21 demonstrated that he is for real.  In 382 ABs he hit just .209 but hit 25 HRs and drove in 63.  Over the course of a full season it's certainly reasonable to assume he could advance to 30 HRs and 80 RBIs, particularly if his batting average improves.  

So given all of these positives that could indeed happen, it's understandable that for now the remaining three offensive players Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and an as yet unidentified outfielder could add significantly to the hitting other teams' pitchers must face.  If, for example, Baty hits 20 HRs and Vientos slugs 25 then those numbers are a great improvement of what was seen last year.  


The big mystery right now is the outfielder (assuming Vientos is assigned as the DH).  The numbers 4 and 5 have been addressed with D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor, but who will join Nimmo and Marte in the starting lineup?  It is assumed the club wants someone who can provide protection in the batting order for Alonso and Lindor.  That kind of bat won't come cheaply but as of now the club hasn't really spent anything of signficance.  Here's hoping David Stearns has both a plan and the ability to execute it.

14 comments:

  1. "Do nothing" is certainly a strategy, but it is a risky one for David Stearns who must prove his value after accepting a lot of money to come here.

    Everything you say about the everyday starters is accurate, yet they just can't seem to put it all together except for that outstanding stretch in the first half of 2022. It is tough to imagine that this team can hit its way to victory enough times to make the playoffs (even with a low 84 win bar like last year).

    That leaves it upon the pitching staff to limit other teams. That seems unlikely given the dropoff from SP2 to SP3.

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  2. This is Tom. Optimism seldom = actual in Metsville. Likely this team ends up with an offense that is 6th to 12th in NL runs scored, depending on the level of luck and injuries.

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  3. Paul, Tom here. I discuss Megill in an article later this AM.

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  4. The Mets are good at doing nothing but in this case, it might be the right thing to do. You can't continue to build a good / great minor league system when you are being penalized 10 spots in the draft.

    You can't move forward with such an expensive and yet so incomplete team while being penalized with 101M in penalties. The Mets need to go back to planning for 2025/2026.

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  5. BTW,

    Read somewhere that if Pete Alonso were to be traded, he would only get the Mets a prospect between 100 to 200 range.

    What am I missing? comments?

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  6. If Atlanta was trading Pete, they’d get two top 50 prospects.

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  7. I have become much more of a "get this team's salaries under control" and let the kids play

    Baty needs to be the third baseman

    Vientos the DH in some form

    The six SPs, two outfielders and Jett and Acuña arrive soon

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  8. One of the best moves was not signing Giolito.

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  9. Viper: I don't think the $101M is a problem when you're driven to succeed an you're worth $20B, but the losing 10 sports in the draft, plus a reduction in the non-U.S. bonus amount is a problem; however, from what I understand, the 2024 current salary projection based upon players under contract + projected arbitration awards + salaries they owe to players they've traded away is already above the penalty at around $300M. and I agree with Mack to let the kids play, but, at least for this year, they've got potential regulars, but are really short on pitchers; they need to sign some better than 4A pitchers on short term contracts.

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  10. I mentioned yesterday that we need to keep in mind that virtually no one in the new FO has ever met or worked with any of the players in the org, meaning no deep evaluations nor a real sense of whether they can help fix or develop them, and to what level. This gives me pause and makes me think that I’d rather they take this season (or much of it, anyhow) to do those evaluations before making major decisions/commitments for the future, rather than trying to appease the immediate demands of fans and writers. Is Baty fixable? Is Vientos a real ML impact bat? Can Megill harness his stuff and gain consistency? Will Marte get back to health and productivity? Which of the core guys approaching or over 30 won’t age well? I don’t know, and I’m guessing that the new FO doesn’t know yet either. And I’m betting that they’d rather flush ‘24 in exchange for a real and well informed framework of what they actually have and what they will need to spend or trade to get to set them up longer term success. If we don’t add another OF, for example, I won’t be surprised if 23 yo Gilbert parlays a good spring into a roster spot, and if Jett/Acuña start off well, that one or both of them steps into line for an early summer promotion. I can live with knowing that this year is all about that, and the kids, and Alvarez’ development, and getting back under the tax. This offseason is about setting themselves up to get a good look at all that. I expect that next offseason we will feel more like a team that knows what shots they want to take and is willing to take them.

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  11. Adam, the free agents next year will want to want to sign with the Mets. Will they?

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    1. I mean, that probably depends on the individual. But also, I would suspect that once this FO has a real read on the org and its assets, they will focus - at the deadline and next offseason - on trading for some younger (than 30) talent, which, If the kids take a step forward this year, could give the team a much different and more appealing look for FA’s. I think that among the questions the FO is going to want to answer is whether and which of Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil, or even Lindor they want to keep around (though I don’t think Lindor’s contract is particularly attractive in trade). If they’re really moving in from at least two of those guys, and given that most FA’s are close to or over 30, it could be that they wait until the following offseason to make marquis signings.

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  12. So $ can’t buy happiness? Those 40 million $ contracts to HoF pitchers on the downside of their careers didn’t work out to well. The Dodgers might find out the sme thing.

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  13. Hay Lou,the Padres might have buyer remorse too.

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