Mets Prospect Profile: Pitcher Jordan Geber

 This is the next post in a series intended to bring awareness to some of the lesser-known prospects in the Mets' organization  This series will post a different prospect each weekday at 11:00am EST for the benefit of our fans.

Jordan Geber is a minor league player in the Mets organization with a dream to play in the majors just like a hundred other guys wearing the uniform.  Jordan Geber has not followed the same path as many of the others, and his story is an interesting one that gives hope to any aspiring player.

Jordan came out of Archbishop High School in Maryland as a pitcher.  At 6’2” 180 lbs, he was not an imposing figure on the mound or an overpowering arm though he was throwing a low 90’s fastball.  That got him an offer with the Mount St. Mary’s baseball team.  

He played there for four years, moving up through the ranks to become their top starter in the 2021 season and winning all-NEC first team honors that year.  Since his 2020 season was impacted by the pandemic, he had a fifth year of eligibility which he planned to use by playing for Georgia Tech in the 2022 season.  

In January of 2022 on his return to campus after the semester break, Geber suffered a severe concussion in a car accident that landed him in the hospital with no memory of his previous four days.  Geber worked his way back from that setback to pitch in 16 games for the Hokies, striking out 40 in 35 innings of work.  However, with a 5.40 ERA over that span, he went undrafted after the 2022 season.

Geber found an opportunity to pitch that summer with the MLB draft league, which is a mixed league with some drafted players and some undrafted free agents.  He hooked up with a team in Frederick, Maryland and put in some good work there, where he was noticed by the scouts and signed a contract to play with the Mets.  He was assigned to the St. Lucie Mets in early August and threw 27 innings for them until the season finished, then spent a few weeks on the Binghamton Rumble Ponies’ roster in September.  

His numbers for both teams were not extremely impressive, but the Mets had gotten a look and decided to move forward with him.

Jordan started the 2023 season with the Mets rookie league team in the Florida Coast League, then progressed through low A, high A, and finally AA ball by season end.  His performances steadily improved, and by the time he arrived in Binghamton on the last day of August for their playoff push, Geber was throwing well.  In 18 innings for the Ponies, Geber was 2-0 with no runs allowed, a 0.78 WHIP, and no walks.

This rapid improvement warranted another look, so Jordan got an opportunity to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League with the Glendale Desert Dogs, pitching to Mets’ prospect Kevin Parada.   Geber had a rough start there, but after some mechanical adjustments he was throwing well again. 

Scouts had him with a 91-93 mph fastball, a low-80s slider with more run and late life in the zone and an 86-88 cutter that was sharper and tighter.  His confidence continues to grow, and that will likely carry into the 2024 season.  Here is a great video on his AFL experience.

There are not many statistics in this story because this is about perseverance and drive.  The numbers don't tell his story (yet).  Jordan Geber will likely begin the 2024 season with the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies.  I will keep you posted on how he progresses with another post, and maybe an interview later in the season.

Paul Articulates – Thompson, Bannon, Senger – Spring Breakout

Happy Leap Day Everyone!!

There are so many good things about spring training season.  First of all, after a long winter, it is great just to see some sunshine and green grass.  Add to that the sound of a ball hitting leather, a bat striking a ball, and the chatter of the fans and it is going to be a good day.  The other great thing about spring is the opportunity to see how your favorite players are developing and also to get a glimpse of those players that are not as well-known as they make their bid to be remembered.

For those of you that have not been aware, Mack’s Mets is featuring a write-up every weekday at 11am Eastern time on some of the lesser known players to give you some background and perspective.  Please make sure to take a look!

Yesterday was the Mets’ fifth spring training game and they looked very good.  The usual rotation of starters and prospects took place, but we got to see Starling Marte get a couple at-bats, Pete Alonso whack a change-up out of the park, and several other outstanding plays.  Here’s what looked good to me yesterday:

1) The pitching continues to be solid.  In yesterday’s game, seven pitchers threw shutout innings to hold the Cardinals without a run.  Reid Garrett started and was replaced by Josh Walker and they both looked very strong, with each striking out a pair and allowing no walks.  

We also saw innings from Trey McLoughlin who had been honing his game in the Arizona Fall League last we looked.  Trey pitched two innings of one-hit ball.  Overall I was impressed with everyone’s control: seven pitchers, nine innings, one walk, seven K’s.

2) Rylan Bannon had one of those games you dream about.  This is a kid that was drafted in 2017 by the Los Angeles Dodgers, bounced around the minors for five years, and finally got a cup of coffee with a few teams in 2022/2023.  He signed a minor league contract with the Mets as a free agent in this past off-season and had hoped to make an impression with the team.  

Yesterday in his three innings of work, he had a spectacular defensive inning at second base, making a diving stop of a ground ball after many steps then calmly throwing out the runner.  Two more batters, two more assists of the more routine type.  Two more assists later, including the beginning of a ninth inning double play.  One plate appearance, one hit.  What a day!

3) Trayce Thompson is making a bid to be on the roster in April.  He had a grand slam last week and took one deep to center field (416 feet) yesterday to continue his hitting tear.  The 32-year-old former White Sox outfielder is batting .571 with a 1.57 slugging percentage so far this spring.   Did we tell you that he is the younger brother of Golden State Warriors shooter Klay Thompson?

4) Daniel Murphy has now had two days in the broadcast booth alongside Gary Cohen.  He did a very nice job there and gave some interesting insights into how he prepared for the next day’s starting pitcher and how he adjusted his approach at bat to improve contact.  I always loved watching him hit.

5) Gary Cohen called Hayden Senger the “best catch-to-throw guy in the Mets’ organization”.  That is pretty high praise for this catcher-heavy team.  Senger has always brought the defense, but has not hit enough yet to move beyond AA ball.  So far this pre-season, Hayden is batting .500 in four at-bats.  Keep it up, Hayden!

Tom Brennan - It’s All About Getting Better All the Time

SIR PAUL: “I’VE GOT TO ADMIT THEY’RE GETTING BETTER, THEY’RE GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME!”

I love when hungry players self-assess, see deficiencies, and take aggressive action to address them and….get better.

Once such player was Jeff McNeil, a very good hitter who was exhibiting very little power in his early minor league days/seasons10 years ago. He smartly added considerable muscle, giving him enough power to forge his way into the Mets lineup. And become a happy multimillionaire.

Brett Baty apparently has worked hard during the off season on closing a gap in his swing, working out to get stronger, and working hard on his fielding. Dividend checks arrive in 2024.

Tylor Megill has had problems keeping pitch counts down, causing him to get pulled an inning or two earlier than we’d like. So, he adds a solid splitter which (time will tell) should help him induce more swings and misses, reduce pitch counts and make him into a no-doubt rotation starter.

Joey Lucchesi enhances his conditioning, drops 25 unneeded pounds, and that most likely will make him a better pitcher than the .500 pitcher he has been.

Luis Severino feels bad sleeping patterns and poor nighttime sleep have left him fatigued, and left less time for his body to recover. He doesn’t just say, “oh well”, but takes action with hiring a sleep specialist, now sleeps better, and is feeling more energized.

Francisco Alvarez does not sit on his laurels, working hard to be less pull-happy, slims down a bit, works endlessly on his catching skills, and goes all “Edwin Diaz” in learning to speak English well, no easy task.

Jose Butto working on a sinker, aware that allowing HRs is a weak point in his repertoire. Smart.

Sean Manaea last year added a sweeper, and it gave him a major boost.

Our top minor league pitchers are all adding a new pitch or getting in superior shape, or both. Good results should follow, I’m betting.

Some minor league players, though, were ranked in the Mets Top 30 a few years back, but fanned a ghastly amount in the lower minors. There was no evidence in 2022 or 2023 that these tooled athletes did what they needed to do…drastically overhaul their whole hitting approach. 

I wonder if those I have in mind as I write this will make it out of spring training still employed as minor league baseball players.

If something needs to be changed, do it, pronto, fellas. 

Or find another occupation.

SPEAKING OF “BETTER”…

On spring training’s opening Mets game, a few pitchers had (let’s just say it) crappy outings, while others pitched well. End result? A 10-5 loss.

Since then, one fine pitching outing after the next, supported by sharp defense. The team is now 4-1, with a 2.20 ERA. 

23 of the 30 pitchers that have pitched so far have not allowed a run. 3 of the others allowed one run and pitched well. Can we take 26 pitchers north?

Other “Betters”:

TRAYCE THOMPSON: hit another “TRAYCER” for his 2nd spring homer, as he comes out of the gate HOT AND HUNGRY. Can he stay hot into March? If he can keep up his current pace for a full 162 games, he’ll hit .571 with 108 HRs and 324 RBIs. I’ll take it.

QUESTION: Tyrone Taylor is the Mets’ 4th outfielder, period, end of story. Likely to give Stewart and Trayce competition for the 5th OF spot, Ben Gamel isn’t a career All Star, but has solid career numbers. Anyone think he is going to make the Mets’ roster as the 5th outfielder? Career, the 31 y/o lefty hitting Gamel is .253/.332/.384 in 2,221 PAs. 

Stewart career is .220/.329/.426. Trayce career is .212/.300/.411.

BRANDON MCILWAIN: Saw him strike out on Wednesday, but Luke Ritter described him as an athletic freak, and yes, he does look like all of that. Watch him break out in AAA in 2024.

JETT: Beats out another infield hit, looks sharp at SS after Lindor played the first part of the game. He really looks almost ready to this eye.

RAMIREZ: He’s 4 for 8? What? Alex is looking good, but also looks like he avoids the weight room. “Alex, let me introduce you to Mr. Dumbbell.”

NIDO: has matched his 2023 RBI total of 1, and is hitting like it is still 2023 (1 for 7, .143).

VIENTOS: Just 2 for 10, but (nicely) just one K. Pastor Strawberry says Mark needs to decide what sort of MLB hitter he wishes to be, and be that.

BATY: 1 for 6. C’mon, Brett.

Mets Prospect Profile - Pitcher Luis Moreno

This is the next post in a series intended to bring awareness to some of the lesser-known prospects in the Mets' organization  This series will post a different prospect each weekday at 11:00am EST for the benefit of our fans.

Sometimes with all the scouting reports filling printed and online media with the exploits of a team's best of the best top prospects sometimes the lesser known or heralded youngsters don't get much attention.  It's our goal to show you a little about how the other half has been living baseball-wise and we can then form opinions about their potential to ascend up the ladder towards games being played at Citifield.  

The first name to consider today is pitcher Luis Moreno who unfortunately shares the same moniker with another prospect playing for a different team.  This Moreno is a San Cristobal product out of the Dominican Republic who for better or worse shares stature with former Mets starting hurler Marcus Stroman.  

Standing just 5'8" tall but seemingly beefy at nearly 200 pounds he isn't exactly on paper what scouts envision for a guy who can deceive hitters with a lot of odd motion in the arms and legs.  Consequently on more diminutive pitchers you tend first to look at control to see if he's able to keep runners off base.

Having spent 2020 through 2023 in the Mets affiliates you see a pitcher with a lot of work done but it would appear unfortunately still more to do.  On controlling strikes, he's done better at fanning hitters at a rate of about 1 per inning pitched and preventing players from driving the ball against him with hits per game at respectable levels well below 1 per inning.  

It is, however, that involuntary number of pitches that fall out of the strike zone that's been the big red flag.  While he did have one season in 2022 split between a few levels in which he managed to deliver a decent 3.3 walks per 9 innings, the rest of his career both before and after showed major control issues.  

The WHIP number for his four year minor league career is a mediocre 1.444 though his ability to limit hits and strike out opposing hitters suggests that perhaps a transition from the starting rotation to the relief corps might work in his favor.  

Then again, scouting reports are projecting him for more of the same in allowing baserunners which may indeed limit his success as he attempts to make the big club.  He got as high as Syracuse briefly last year and perhaps there is hope that against a higher level of competition he makes or breaks his potential as a prospect, but with a career ERA of 4.28 and a Strikeout to Walk ration of just 1.82 he may be running out of time.  

He's already 24 years old and not yet solidified his status in the upper minors, so the potential for him is greater to be released or to become part of filler names in trade transactions is likely higher than hope is for him to become a quality major league performer.

There is always room for someone who was not expected to excel to surprise you just as occasionally the guys with flashy minor league numbers can't replicate them at a higher level.  Luis Moreno may be in that first group.

Remember1969: The Pete Alonso Conundrum

 

The Polar Bear Conundrum

Some thoughts before the walk year starts

By now, if you don’t know that Pete Alonso will be a free agent at the end of 2024, you must be living under the rock that is on one side of Pete, on the other side of his hard place.  

There has been a lot of discussion about what to do with him – trade him now for best return, wait until the trade deadline and ship him off for prospects or just wait until the end of the year and risk losing him to free agency and getting a compensation pick in next year’s draft.

But while all those are great discussions for the fans and the arm-chair general managers, Pete himself has a few things to look at.     It has been well documented that he switched agents to Scott Boras who always encourages his players to go to free agency and prices them as high as he can to get the most money for the player (and himself). 

Recently, free agency has taken a little different look than it showed in its first 40 or 50 years of operation, particularly in the Scott Boras camp, in that more and more players are unsigned well into the offseason and even as spring training starts.   This has to give pause to Pete and his thinking.    While Alonso has a skill that is quite rare on the market – the ability to hit 50 home runs a year, he still needs to read that market and decide if Boras is doing the right thing with his clients.  

 There was recently a good article by Bill Madden in the NY Daily News with the title of “Teams not willing to play ball with Scott Boras and his ridiculous asking prices”    Link here

 If anyone thinks Pete is different, I’d argue they need to think a bit closer.    The following list of names should raise red flags: 

 (Note, there are really no good statistical comps here for Alonso, but these can be used to demonstrate the process)

Bryce Harper:   While this is 5 year old news, Harper went through a dry off season in 2018-19 with numbers like $400 or $500 million being thrown around before signing on March 2 for less than $30M per season (for 13 years).   He was much younger and much more accomplished at the time of free agency.   

Cody Bellinger:    Just signed a three year deal with the Cubs for around $80M, a far cry from his reported asking price of $200M for the former league MVP.   

Blake Snell:  The current NL Cy Young Award winner:    Unsigned, rumors are he has had only one or two offers, neither close to his $270M asking price.

Jordan Montgomery:    Made his name as a solid starter on the World Series champion Rangers in 2023.    Asking for Aaron Nola money – approaching $200M

Matt Chapman:   Name has been tossed around, but teams seem to be looking at the bad stuff  (low batting average, poor 2H2023) more than his gold glove and very good power numbers

J.D. Martinez:  Looking for a lot of dollars for a one-dimensional player, even though power is the name of the game these days.

Michael Conforto:  Pete’s former teammate found no takers and sat out a full season after declining the Mets qualifying offer.     He will probably not be the last good player to sit out a year. 

Even Brandon Nimmo who re-signed with the Mets after entering free-agency might be good guy to chat with.   I would love to hear “the rest of the story” about his FA experience (although I never will).    Being the cynic I am, I sometimes wonder if he was spooked by his pal Conforto’s situation and when he didn’t have multiple big offers by early December, decided to go the safe route.    Can Alonso learn a thing or two here?  (of course I could be very wrong here, but …)    

Are teams shying away from playing the game Boras has been so good at for 20 years and not believing there is really a mystery team out there?   Or are teams just getting smarter and thinking that paying players top dollar for their age 30 and above seasons is not the best financial plan?

 If I am Pete Alonso, I am going to look at this and do some deep, deep thinking.   When he reads that Steve Cohen says that Pete is an important part of the Mets and would like him to be a Met for life, I would probably ask him now what his best offer is and perhaps try to talk him into a bit more, but I’d think very seriously about signing that contract very soon.   Next winter could be pretty ugly.     

Reese Kaplan -- The Outfield Reserves Are Not Starter-Worthy

While most people feel that the starting 9 for the New York Mets is pretty much already decided, there are some questions regarding the bench and who will back up the regulars.  While Zack Short had a highlight reel defensive play a few days ago, it would take a miracle of sorts for him to dislodge Joey Wendle or supplement him as an extra infielder on the roster.  The same applies for Tomas Nido's quest to become a Mets backup player with Omar Narvaez (and his salary) shoving him far ahead on the depth chart.  

Where it gets a bit more flexible and interesting is in the area of reserve outfielders.  Given the roster projected right now you have Brandon Nimmo slated to play left field, Harrison Bader set for center field and Starling Marte in right.  Yes, you can question the wisdom of the expensive Bader acquisition but what he contributes defensively may make up for his offensive limitations.  No one is expecting major changes to take place with this trio.

However, as the Mets continue their preparatory work in Florida, outfielders D.J. Stewart, Trayce Thompson and Tyrone Taylor need to make their cases to the powers that be to ensure they come north with the team.  Of this trio, Tyrone Taylor is likely the strongest contender as he is a plus defensive player and has demonstrated during his major league career the ability to produce at a 20 HR rate with a modest .239 batting average.  While that doesn't sound like much, it's the combination of power and defense combined with a modest salary that make him pretty much a shoo-in to come north with his current and former boss from Milwaukee, David Stearns, having traded for him.

Everyone here is familiar with D.J. Stewart and for a hot month plus saw he could be a weapon in the middle of the batting order.  Unlike Taylor, D.J. is not known for what he can do with his glove and his running ability is offset by his substantial but not quite Vogelbach level of girth.  He's had part time player written for several seasons in Baltimore and now New York.  Despite the period in which he appeared to have become something of an offensive cog in the machine, he finished the year with a similar .244 batting average to what you would expect from Taylor and clubbed 11 HRs in just 160 ABs which is a pace for over 30 if he played a full season.  That .244 2023 season upped his career average to an unimpressive .220.  The power is for real but you have to wonder if he's essentially  at best Daniel Vogelbach lite (if not light).  We saw how poorly that worked out.  As a lefty swinger he could provide some pretty solid numbers against righty pitching but provides little else to make the case for him playing more regularly.

Non roster invitee Trayce Thompson has flashed power during his big league career but struggled even more than the others to get his batting average up to an acceptable number.  Now 32 years old, Thompson owns a career AVG of just .212.  Think of him as a right handed version of D.J. Stewart.  He also can produce 20 HR power over the course of a full season, but without any stolen base ability having swiped just 17 over 7 years of play, he's not really providing a lot if injury or slumps from the starters forced him to play for an extended period of time.  Coming off a sub-Mendoza season he has a long climb to force his way onto the roster despite his grand slam and 5 RBIs earlier this week.  

It would seem that the youngsters in camp wouldn't be a part of this equation as they need to spend more time playing regularly in AA and AAA.  However, there might be reserve outfielders available from other clubs via trade or roster squeezes that could make Stewart's or Thompson's desires to play in Queens go unfulfilled.  Then again, there are so many holes in the roster as it is right now in terms of starting and relief pitching as well as leaning heavily on a trio of offensive Baby Mets that they may just roll with the punches of who they already have in-house.

Mets Prospect Profile: IF Colin Houck

This is the second in a series intended to bring awareness to some of the lesser-known prospects in the Mets' organization  This series will post a different prospect each weekday at 11:00am EST for the benefit of our fans.

Colin Houck is a 6-2/190 right hand hitting middle infielder that plays short, second, and third base.

The 19/year old was drafted by the Mets in 2023, with the 1.32 pick in the draft, out of Parkview HA (GA).

His signing bonus was slightly above slot at $2.7mil.

He has an open stance with hands held high, which he wraps around the bat placed above his head. 

There is a slight leg kick in his swing, which was graded in school in the top 95% among his peers, at 90.3.

Showing present power with more to come.

6.70 60-yd dash speed

Defense: good action... hands out front and + arm

Projects to remain in the middle

Minimal Mets usage in 2023. With FCL, had 29 at-bats with seven additional walks.

.241/.389/.310/.698

My guess is he starts the season for St. Lucie.

This was a big time steal for the Mets. Houck was projected to go much earlier on that first day.

No rush here for this young, future top rated prospect.

SAVAGE VIEWS – Ray, The Cautious Optimist

 

Gosh, this off-season has not gone as planned.  

We did not make any major free agent splashes.  We knew Peterson would be out until June 1^st at the earliest.  The loss of Senga certainly puts a damper on our outlook.  On top of that our new 100MPH guy is back in Japan. 

However, I did project that the Mets as a playoff caliber team in 2024 and I’m sticking to my guns.  For that to happen, players need to perform like the very talented group they are. 

Last year they scored an underwhelming 717 runs.  To compete they need to increase run production by around 100 runs.  

In other words, nearly every starter needs to outperform 2023.  Here’s the way I see things going.

	Name	BA	HRS	RBI
	Nimmo	0.287	24	73
	Marte/Gilbert	0.270	18	65
	Lindor	0.275	32	105
	Alonso	0.255	48	122
	McNeil	0.312	15	70
	Alvarez	0.240	35	80
	Baty	0.265	26	75
	Vientos	0.250	22	70
	Bader	0.230	12	50
	Bench	0.220	15	110
			247	820

Of course, my assumptions are based on the starting group remaining healthy for most of the season.  My expectations for the baby Mets is for them to produce based on their pedigrees.  I see Gilbert coming up at some point, no later than the All-Star break, to take over for Marte who could lose time to injuries or be a trade candidate.   

It’s going to be an exciting season and hopefully the return of Senga and Peterson boosts what could potentially be a strong rotation.  It’s hard to foresee the makeup of the Pen at this stage but I think we will be okay.

Ray

February 26, 2024

Tom Brennan: Jacob Reimer Revisited; Monday Game Mini-Recap

 

HE’S NO FOOL, YOU KNOW.

INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU HAS HIS KEEN EYE ON “JAKEB RIMMAIR”

Why would I get excited by a Mets prospect hitter who fails to have a .400 on base percentage?

Well, that depends.

What if he was just a 19 year old who split his time between Brooklyn and St Lucie and his OBP wasn't .400, but it was .399?  

Is .399 close enough to .400 for you? It is for me.

That's Jacob Reimer (actually pronounced "Rhymer").

As opposed to the way bumbling Inspector Jacques Clouseau might pronounce it: 

"Rimm-air".  

Sorry, Jacques, it is RHYMER, YOU IDIOT FOOL.

Kidding aside, in October I did my Top 35 Productive Prospects list and had Reimer 11th overall. 

Which is darned good and I would have had him 9th overall if the Mets had not traded for the law firm of Gilbert and Acuna last summer.

Here's what I said in October:

11. Jacob Reimer - 3B - he was raking in St Lucie at age 19, and then struggled in a brief stint in Brooklyn. To me, I'll take a flyer on him as a close to top 10 guy.  In 2023, 336 at bats, 8 HR, 49 RBI, .265 overall.  I think we see him improve in leaps and bounds in 2024.  And he'll have us saying, "another quality infielder?  Where will he fit?"

He was drafted in the 4th round (119th overall) by the Mets in 2022 and signed about 50% above slot, at $775,000.

He has a strong arm, but made 17 errors in 78 games at 3rd base, which no doubt will improve in 2024.

As I see it, maybe he debuts in the big leagues by late 2025 or in 2026, when he will be competing to wrest away the 3B starting job from Brett Baty or Mark Vientos.  

Who knows?  2024 ought to tell us a lot about Reimer..

Home and Away:

NOT due to Brooklyn hitting struggles (he hit well enough there), while playing mostly for St Lucie in 2023, with the last 6 weeks in Brooklyn, he hit about 50 points higher on the road in 2023 overall.  

That hints to me he was having little trouble adjusting to road travel at age 19.  I expect that gap to evaporate in 2024 (which he will play entirely as a 20 year old, with his birthday just passing on traditional Washington's Birthday), and his home results to rise, a positive speculation on my part.

He had just 84 Ks in 100 games, averaging 1 K for every 5 PAs, which is certainly solid for a 19 year old, but outstandingly walked 62 times and was hit by pitches 16 times. 

His 78 HBPs and walks in 100 games for a 19 year old is almost Jett-like.  He only stole 3 of 5 bases last year, so Jett-like speed he clearly does not possess.

Jacob had many balls hit with exit velocities above 100 MPH, so what will that be when he perhaps is a bit stronger in 2024 at age 20?

Man, let's start the season already and get this kid moving on up.  

I see this Rhymer as a quick Climber.  

How about David Wright without the same speed?  One can dream.

P.S. Apparently the Mets Top 30 will play the Nats’ Top 30 in a televised game in mid-March, so we’ll get to see Reimer there. Nice. He did not get in any of the first 3 spring training games.

NO NEED TO PANIC - WE’VE GOT MAX KRANICK

I wonder if Max Kranick is auditioning for Mighty Mad Max II. Two perfect innings yesterday.Tyler Stuart threw 2 scoreless, too. Joander Suarez closed it out with 2 scoreless.

Trayce Thompson hit a grand slam and drove in a 5th run in a 6-3 win over the Nats.  Big Pete was 2 for 2. 

Mets Prospect Profile: OF Brandon McIlwain

We asked our readers about which prospects get little attention on our site. Jett Williams? He receives non-stop Mack's Mets writers' attention, and for good reasons.  Future star.

Others are good, but get far less attention in print. The readers offered up 10 such names they would like to hear more about.  So we obliged in a 10 article series that starts today.  The articles were individually written by 4 of our writers (Mack, Reese, Paul, and me).

One of those 10 players, who missed my “Productive Top 35 Prospects” list from October, was Brandon McIlwain. In that Top 35, I wrote up some honorable mentions. Guys who almost made it on the list.

I wrote this about McIlwain in October:

“Had I not added several DSL guys to the top 35, the list could have included a guy like Brandon McIlwain (.247/.356/.393, 20 steals), but while the 25 year old had a decent offensive season in AA and AAA, "decent" does not get you to the big leagues.  He needs to get a lot better, and do it fast, given his age.  But, despite being 5 years older, he had a whole lot better year than Alex Ramirez.”

Back in mid-2022, I also wrote this:

Brandon is having a very solid year, but turned 24 in July.  Between A and AA, Brandon is a very solid .279/.364/.446 this year.

He turns 26 on Memorial Day weekend this year. He was a 26th rounder in 2019 with the Marlins, but didn’t sign. He was too busy playing football and baseball in college, and that undoubtedly slowed his baseball college development. He played in some college age and indy leagues and also played in college, where he only hit about .235 in 117 games. But he was athletic. Foosball players usually are.

He signed as a free agent in the Mets in 2020.

In 2020, it is obvious that he didn’t play due to COVID.  Dang.

THAT is how you get to be turning 26 this season on May 31 and still be in the minors.

He has stolen a very solid 43 of 60 as a pro. I look at his .243/.356./393 in 551 plate appearances in 2023, with just 119 Ks, though, and think, nah, not gonna make it. 

But he missed a year plus. And played just 172 games in 2021 and 2022, due to injuries and whatnot.

Had he played that year plus, and not then missed roughly 75 more games in 2021 and 2022, how much better would his 2023 have been? I’m guessing .300/.400/.500.  

He’s only played 300 games in the minors, and his theme song must be the Beatles’ “Getting Better All the Time.”

In 2023, he hit a frosty .206 in a Binghamton in frosty April there. When it warmed up in May, he hit .275 from May 1 into early August, and then got promoted. In AAA, he hit just .219, but with a fine .382 OBP in 43 games, and stole 11 of 12. 

FIELDING:

"I know he can core an apple", Ralph Kramden told me. "But can he field?", I asked. "Oh, he can field that apple", Ralph replied. 

In point of fact: ten assists and just 4 errors playing all 3 outfield positions in 2023 is impressive. The righty hitting, righty throwing Brandon is a superior athlete.

CONCLUSION:

Hard to read McIlwain, in terms of his eventually being a future major leaguer, but he seems to be coming “subtly fast.” I think he gets there, due to his speed, fielding prowess, and excellent ability to get on base.

I speculate he won’t be called up in 2024, unless it breaks just right for him, but by the end of 2024, we might find ourselves saying: 

“Hey, McIlwain could well be a 4th or 5th outfielder in 2025.” 

After all, he fields well, is athletic at 6’0” 205, and gets on base a LOT. 

Brandon's 2023 stats were very similar to Brandon Nimmo’s in 2015, and Brandon Nimmo has improved so much since then. Why not the other Brandon, McIlwain, too?

Great article on McIlwain - clear from it that he is strong and a fine athlete.

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2022/10/20/new-york-mets-brandon-mcllwain-fall-league/

Paul Articulates – Initial spring thoughts

We are two games into the spring training exhibition season, the sun is out, the fans are streaming into the parks, and the players are trying to position themselves for a successful season.  In this post, I will just share a few of my early observations.  

Following this post, we begin a series that I think you will all enjoy.  The writers on Mack’s staff have divided up a list of prospects that you are not used to hearing about much, and at 11am (EDT) each weekday for the next two weeks we will share a write-up on one of them.

But first, my thoughts so far.

News about Kodai Senga is the only real down note.  He is shut down for three weeks after being given an injection to heal the shoulder strain, and then will need to build his strength back up.  So he will not be available in April to help with a challenging initial schedule for the team.

Everyone was looking forward to seeing Tylor Megill throw his new splitter when he started the first game.  Some control trouble in the first inning kept that one from being displayed much as Tylor focused on finding the strike zone.  Oh well, maybe next time.  He still pitched a solid second inning.

I was very pleased with the SNY interview that Todd Zeile did with Brett Baty.  In that interview, Baty discussed the off-season work he has been doing with the hitting coaches to fix the “hole” in his swing that torpedoed his 2023 batting average.  The explanation sounded very encouraging because it went to the root cause and the remedy sounded very plausible.  It was all about the strength of his top hand, which when improved will get the bat out ahead on those inside fastballs.  I’m looking forward to seeing this play out.  He also fielded the ball well.

I have mentioned a few times that there are a LOT of catchers on the Mets’ rosters right now, and if that was intended to create some internal competition, it seems to be working.  Day 1: Hayden Senger drives the first home run of the exhibition season.  Day 2: Francisco Alvarez sends one over the right field fence showing some power to the opposite field.  Kevin Parada comes in and immediately picks a runner off first base.  Here we go!

Nate Lavender has been discussed very often in the comments to posts throughout the off-season.  It seems that everyone is right – this guy can throw!  Three up, three down, three strikeouts.  Grand Hartwig and David Griffin also threw an impressive inning each.

I enjoyed watching Jett Williams turn on the jets and steal a base on Sunday.  He’s not nervous under the scrutiny of being one of the most-watched young players in camp.  He’s ready to go.

Finally, some encouraging words from David Stearns in his mid-game interview on SNY.  He made clear the reasoning for bulking up the depth on the MLB roster.  He wants the “waves” of upcoming talent in the development system to have appropriate time at the level they need to be at to grow.  Players will not be “ruined” by being called up too soon to fill a hole created by injury or performance – there are plenty of capable players to fill that hole on the roster.  I like that strategic approach.

I also like the fact that we are watching baseball again.  It could not have come too soon.

Reese Kaplan -- Let's Take a Look at the Mets' Walking Wounded

With Spring Training now underway with actual competitive games being played it's beginning to feel more like baseball has returned for real.  Yes, there are questions to be answered about player health, player performance and the 22nd through 26th men who make the roster, but for now all teams are equally able to dream of October baseball without the fans collapsing into either giggling fits for the silliness of it or sheer wrath for how little has been done to ensure it will actually happen.  

As far as the Mets go, there are a number of health issues to watch.  In no particular order we have the following walking wounded:

Edwin Diaz is a true difference maker for this ballclub.  We all saw after his initial checkered rookie year in the National League he came roaring back with top of the bullpen and then later top of the league capabilities as a closer.  He's showing the knee injury appears to be fully healed and it's a reasonable expectation to believe he will return to the dominance he exhibited in 2022 and 2021.

Starling Marte is also apparently healthy now with the ability not only to play the field regularly but also to run with abandon and to swing the bat for both contact and power.  We all saw the kind of player he could be when he began his Mets contract in 2022 and while there's no guarantee he'll replicate those numbers this season the fact is that he was an All Star level performer in the past.  Too many people have written him off completely due to an injury-plagued year.  Did folks do the same for pitchers like Jacob deGrom or players like David Wright?  The talent is there for sure.  The trick is keeping them healthy.

Kodai Senga is obviously a major unknown at this point.  He could be fine after 4-6 weeks of rest and rehabilitation or he could have a more serious injury that will keep him out for a major chunk of the season.  He was better than expected during his introduction to American baseball in 2023 and was hoped to be heading this somewhat watered down staff.  For now the questions remain about who takes over his innings and for how long.  

Luis Severino can be a stellar pitcher when he's healthy and when he's not tipping his pitches.  Last season he was brutal and everyone hopes that in taking a buy-relatively-low flyer on him that they get the star level pitcher he once was.  For now he's another great unknown, working with a new pitching coach and a new organization.  No one knows how it will turn out but there have been long intervals in the past when he put everything together.  

David Peterson is a long no-show for the club due to his injury recovery.  Some folks like him.  Others feel he is somewhat a prospect unfulfilled by what he's done on the diamond.  For the next 60 days minimum he is a non-entity as he heals and hopefully becomes a part of the 2024 season story.

Ronny Mauricio is another lost cause for the 2024 season.  Yes, it's possible he could make a late year appearance if he heals well and if the club has a need due to injury or incompetence from the others taking his playing time, but don't count on him being a major factor.

There are relief pitchers on the roster who need to show they are capable of throwing regularly and without pain.  For now the whole subject past the intitial four top relievers is a wide open competition as the club didn't venture out much in this regard beyond Adam Ottavino's return and Jake Diekman.