Reese Kaplan -- The Next July Deadline Deal to Ponder...

Yesterday we discussed the prospect of keeping or peddling Luis Severino who is on a one-year deal and pitching quite a bit better than anyone could have reasonably expected.  Today we're going to look at another ballplayer who could (and some say should) be on the trading block, former NL Batting Champion Jeff McNeil.

It seems like only yesterday (though it was back in 2022) that McNeil put in a whale a contact hitting season.  For a refresher, he ended the year batting .326 with 9 home runs and 62 RBIs.  That's pretty good production from someone who doesn't have a lot of long ball talent compared to others on the roster.  He was starting that season to migrate a bit to the outfield in addition to his usual spot at second base where he was the world's most welcome replacement for Robinson Cano.  

The sky seemed to be the limit for the turning-31 hitter.  Billy Eppler signed him to a lucrative contract worth $50 million.  Now at roughly $12.5 million average annual salary it seemed a fair number, though contact hitters are not respected as much as sluggers when it comes to the size of the paycheck.  2023 was nothing like 2022 as McNeil struggled as a hitter and finished the year batting .270.  That's a respectable number if you are many people, but coming of a .326 title winning season in 2022 it was a drop of 56 points.  

Many felt it was merely an aberration for McNeil and come 2024 he would show that type of hitter he's been in the past.  Unfortunately thus far he'd have to go on a major hitting streak to reach that .270 plateau given his sub-.230 batting average and the fact he was benched for three straight games by Carlos Mendoza allegedly due to the Nationals sending three straight southpaws to the mound.  Never mind the fact he actually hits better against lefties than he does against righties.  

Now to hear reports about it, part of the break was physical to let him get a rest.  Part of it was mental so he could get some relief from the self-imposed stress of not delivering at the level he's proven to be capable of doing.  Part of it was also attitude as he has been known to curse a blue streak when the batted ball doesn't go where he had hoped and his game-face has not ingratiated him to neither Mendoza nor to David Stearns.  

Trading when someone is not performing is always a much more difficult task than moving a player delivering at a near All Star Game level.  Unlike Severino who would only represent less than a half season's salary obligation, with McNeil you are on the hook for escalating salaries in 2025 and 2026.  Few teams would find his contract appealing at the way he's been playing.   

David Stearns does not have the loyalty issue of having offered McNeil his current deal.  It was done by his now suspended predecessor, Billy Eppler.  To Steve Cohen who agreed to the terms of the contract, he's showing less tolerance for paying people not achieving what was expected.  Omar Narvaez, Jorge Lopez and others have already been shown the door.  The difference is that they were making relatively little salary.  McNeil represents the balance of $10.25 million for 2024 and then gets $15.75 million for each of the next two years.  In 2027 he has another $15.75 million due if the Mets pick up that option or he is owed $2 million for a buyout of it.  

So get out your spreadsheet (or calculator or abacus) and figure out how much you would have to pay down on the financial obligation to make another team willing to take a chance for a change of scenery deal for McNeil.  I would think you probably need to pay most of his 2024 salary, drop his salary the next two years to the 2024 salary level and throw in the $2 million that would be necessary to buy him out in 2027.  That is another $4 million plus this year, $5 million plus for each of the next two years and the $2 million buyout.  By my math that's $16 million but it presumes another team thinks $10 million for each of the next two years is a fair number.  Maybe that $5 million for each of those seasons needs to be closer to $7 million which would make the deal $20 million of lost money guaranteed to get whatever you receive in return.  Is that enough?

Regarding second base, the natural answer to who would play there would be Jose Iglesias since Ronny Mauricio is still injured.  Jett Williams is also on the IL.  However, the long term answer is probably not the 34 year old Iglesias who would be an ideal backup.  Is Mauricio going to be ready to play 2B full time next year?  How long will Williams need to play when completely healthy before a promotion to the majors seems even remotely viable?

People seemed to like Jeff McNeil a lot when he was hitting .300 regularly.  Last year and what we've seen this year has made many fans and media types question if the now 32 year old McNeil has started slipping in his abilities already.  Whether he has or hasn't, it doesn't appear the club would be left high and dry if a July trade could be made.  A hot streak by McNeil would make it much easier to generate interest, but it would also rekindle the "he's part of the core" conversations and he hasn't contributed much to the Mets reaching October baseball.  

Decisions, decisions...