Reese Kaplan -- Stearns "Done Good" But Now Must Choose

If you want to start a buy vs. sell debate in earnest with Mets fans then it boils down to a single name.  It is not Pete Alonso.  It is not Edwin Diaz.  It is not Sean Manaea.  It is not Jose Quintana.  It is not Jeff McNeil.  It is not Starling Marte.  No, let the name Luis Severino roll from your lips and brace for the fireworks.

Remember when David Stearns proudly declared he had signed former crosstown rival Severino to be one of five starting pitchers for the Mets for a salary of $13 million.  While he had some decent years in 2017 and 2018, the fact is that Severino is hurt quite a bit and in 2023 he delivered a performance that would remind many of 2024 Adrian Houser as a starting pitcher. 

Sometimes the folks in the front office get lucky or know a bit more than the rest of us do.  With Severino’s magnificent start on Wednesday afternoon he raised his season record to 4-2 and lowered his ERA to just 3.25.  How good are those numbers?  Well, for his career he was a 3.76 ERA pitcher going into the 2024 season, but the scariest part is that from 2019 onward he has appeared in 3, 0, 4, 19 and 19 starts.  He did not have the profile of a solid and dependable member ready to take the ball every 5th day.  In fact, he hasn’t done that since 2018.  That’s five full seasons of partial effort due to injury. 

There have been changes to the type of pitcher Severino has become for the Mets.  Gone is the killer strikeout pursuit which showed him notching significantly more than 1K per IP during those two full seasons.  For the Mets he has delivered his quality pitching to the tune of a 1.14 ERA but the strikeouts are down to 58 over 72+ innings pitched.  It seems Jeremy Hefner has convinced the 30 year old that pitching to contact is fine just as strikeouts are fine.  You really can’t argue with the results.

So there you have it.  Tip your cap to Luis Severino for not only reinventing himself but also for having made 12 starts since the season began, well on his way to a 32-34 start campaign.  Also tip your cap to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and a third time towards POBO David Stearns for having negotiated the deal.

Now we return to the will they or won’t they debate that is like trying to get the most extreme and emotional debate for Mets fans.  Do you declare the decision to ink Severino for a single year, ending his association as a one and done contract?  Do you show complete faith and extend him while you have exclusive negotiating rights realizing that his health, his over-30 age, his conditioning and the price it’s going to cost all form a pretty large group of concerns?  Or do you sell high in late July to a contender in need of a starting pitcher, wish him well for what he has done for the Mets and try to get the best return possible for him instead of seeing him simply walk away at year’s end?

Take the Atlanta Braves as an example of a team facing its own injury issues.  They obviously want to recoup their annual position as the winner of the National League East.  They also seem to do a better job developing younger players than do the Mets.  As much stomach contortion it would take to help the Braves, no matter how nice it was to sweep the Nationals the fact is the Mets are at best a wildcard hopeful.  Banking on a long shot entry to the postseason when the club has yet to show it’s even capable of playing close to .500 ball is the very definition of wishful thinking.   

The compromise position to trading the man away is a longer term deal of say 3-4 years but with opt outs included both ways.  They would protect the player if he is indeed healthy and continues to perform at a premium level.  They protect the Mets as they have a way to minimize the financial damage if the previous five year profile of Luis Severino makes an ominous return.

What should not be done is simply playing out the string and letting him walk away.  If you want to see some sheer guts by the front office, you could do that and offer up a QO for nearly $20 million for 2025.  Then if he takes it, you have another one and done situation.  If he turns it down then at least you get a draft pick. 

So, with apologies to The Clash, “Should he stay or should he go?”