It’s now July 6th, 24 days from the July trading deadline. At the close of the Washington Nationals series that the Mets split 2-2, the club finds itself once again at the record of 1 game below .500, 5 games behind the braves and with 77 games left in the 2024 season there are some very difficult decisions to be made.
Just this morning as is common these days among Mets fans the question arises about the remainder of the season vs. the future of 2025 and beyond. Many folks are of the belief that when a wildcard berth is within just a small handful of games it is critical for the club to redouble its efforts to play October baseball. That would mean fortifying the mostly rock solid play that has seen them progress from double digits below .500 to as high as 2 games above.
The more long term approach types instead feel that while the June and July numbers have been impressive, there are so many expiring contracts on the team that you need to look beyond a razor thin opportunity to be one and done in the playoffs. Instead you would make a shrewder business decision to load up again on as many prospects and complementary pieces you can obtain by holding an open sale of the folks who will be gone at year’s end anyway.
Then there are the folks who want to reengineer the team entirely by dismantling some of the core which has not won much of anything in quite some time and begin the quest for a more productive core for the future. This approach is perhaps the most painful of all as it would mean trading away seasoned veterans while paying down their remaining contractual salaries in order to obtain new assets for the organization. In a way it’s the opposite of two steps forward, one step back. It may be a little seen two steps back, one step forward direction for the future of the ballclub.
As a second group approach, well, that’s a bit tougher to speculate. Starting on the offensive side, Pete Alonso and Harrison Bader are playing into free agency. Ditto J.D. Martinez. For starting pitchers it would include Luis Severino and Jose Quintana hitting the auction block during the off-season. Sean Manaea can come back at a one-year drop of $1 million in salary or can opt out at his choice. Then there is the options-expiring duo of David Peterson and Tylor Megill. For relievers you have Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman and the various lesser known pitchers all set to be with new teams in 2025. That’s a lot of prospective transaction inventory.
The third approach would involve looking at the futures for Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and perhaps even Edwin Diaz. McNeil would be very difficult to move given his mediocre 2023 and terrible 2024. Marte was hitting well and stealing bases before getting hurt again which would mean buying out a lot of future money. The Diaz situation is one of potentially getting out from under the embarrassment of the sticky substance suspension, but they did not move Max Scherzer for that reason and they have proven they have no closer with Diaz unable to play.
So do you tinker, clean house or dismantle the core? Or is it a combination of all three?
That “Strong Buy” signal is edging towards a “Sell” signal. The next two games will have a huge impact on that.
ReplyDeleteTwo wins, buying will seem to be the order of the day. Two losses? Selling.
Fujinami might well be a pen answer. The former wild man fanned the side in AAA last week, and just 6 of his 18 pitches were balls, and over his last 3 outings, 3 perfect innings, and 26 of 32 (80%) of his pitches for strikes.
Megill had 2 fine innings, then lost the zone and unraveled in AAA. Eric Orze perfect inning, fanning 2 and he sure as heck is better than Ty Adcock, whose MLB career had to have ended last night.
If you blow it up, I would promote Megill, Fujinami, Orze, Walker, and Oca. Gone would be Severino, Manaea, Quintana, and Diekman in trades.
Last night they failed miserably. Sevy got rocked, the bullpen imploded again and the offense disappeared. They need to turn it around fast or let the selling begin
ReplyDeleteWe have spent a lot of ink discussing whether this team should stand, sell, or buy, but frankly, their efforts against the Nats and Pirates may have made that decision.
ReplyDeleteThey always seem to play down to their competition. Part of the discussion and imk spilled was about the schedule getting easier. That's like the death knell for this team
ReplyDeleteNote that when Edwin got kicked caked out and suspended, and his fill-in Drew Smith blew out his elbow, the Mets’ Wild Card tire seems to have blown out, too. From Hot to Rot.
ReplyDeleteYankees were 50-22. Since then, 4-14. Misery loves company. But id take 54-36, as a Mets fan,wouldn’t you?
ReplyDeleteYesterday I commented that I see this team as a couple of games under 500 or a couple of games over 500 not much more than that.
ReplyDeleteIf the Mets are smart, they should realize that this team is too incomplete to mount a consistent run. These Mets will have their moments where they make you believe that they are for real and then fade away again.
We are in the fading phase right now.
Yes, I understand the lure of trading a couple of prospects for BP rentals but can the Mets afford to trade away prospects or are they much better off adding to the flourishing minor leagues?.
BTW, can someone tell the logic of playing Steward and batting him behind Alonso?. Is he supposed to make the pitchers scared if they walk Alonso?.
Why sit Vientos when he is the most potent bat after Alonso?
Was putting McNeil in RF, Iglesias at 2B and Vientos 3B too much?. Any lineup with Steward is a losing lineup for me.
Anyway, I am on the trade them camp and bring up the kiddies.
Viper, you sound like a Rays GM. 😂
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