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10/24/24

MACK - Thursday Morning Observations - 2024

 

The Mets did good this season. We all had high hopes that they would make the playoffs, but very few though they would go this far in.

Many players stood out to me.

Cather Francisco Alvarez played 2024 as a 22-year old. We have to remember this regardless of what we say about him here. Yes, he has only one swing… all the time. Yes, his intention is to always turn every baseball thrown his way into dust. But his three hits in Game 5 this past Friday was the second youngest Met (1988: Gregg Jefferies) to have three hits in one postseason game.

Someone, or some combination of people, talked to him and proved just how important it is to come to the plate with the correct confidence and attitude.

No one questions his ability. His biggest enemy right now is his age, or lack of it.

I still believe he will be a future all-star in this game and the starter for Mets behind the plate for, at least, through the 2028 season.

 

Second baseman Jose Iglesias has been the emotional sparkplug this team has needed for years. His “OMG” song has replaced “Meet The Mets” as the anthem of this team. He also turned in the highest batting average in baseball this season. Who doesn’t want this guy back next season? 

I expect other teams to make a run for him, but don’t discount his desire to remain a part of this. It could earn him a multi-year contract, as a utility backup, to the next guy I am writing about here.

 

Once in a while, an injury to one of your starters causes you to look to your AAA affiliate for a quick replacement, regardless of how well they did at that level. Second baseman Luisangel Acuna was holding his own in Syracuse, but a call-up due to Francisco Lindor’s injury proved many of us supporters were right when we said this would be a future major leaguer. Yes, it’s a small sample, but it came at a critical time: 39-AB, 0.5-WAR, .308… this was his first 39 major league at-bats!

Normally, I wouldn’t demote a league leader to a utility role behind a rookie, but Iglesias will play 2025 as a 35-year old and he’s getting closer to a major injury with every bat. Acuna is ready to step up long time.

 

I’m not going to spend much time here. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is the best player in the Mets dugout and thank God he is under a long- term contract. If he needs a game off or gets injured, you move Acuna over and put Iglesias back on second. Done here.

 

Third baseman Mark Vientos began his path this season into becoming a superstar in this game. Simply put. I’m so proud of him putting his demotion in his rearview mirror and, not only becoming one of the go-to hitters in the regular season, but also producing record Mets numbers in the playoffs.

I’m not sure where the Mets should play him in 2025, but wherever it will be doesn’t matter. He’s my clean-up hitter going forward.

 

I have always loved closer Edwin Diaz. Even through his dancing days. No, he is no longer the “impossible to hit” guy the Mets signed. Close, but a little slower and much wilder. What’s good is he seems to respect Alvarez who is able to reel him back in when he’s losing it.

Diaz is not a problem in this pen. And he will always be my closer. It’s the rest of the pen that needs Cohen/Stearns' attention, but that’s another post.

 

As you know, I was a big fan of starter David Peterson when the Mets drafted him. I started to consider him a failure and I started to tout him as a future reliever. But I was wrong.

In my opinion, he was the steadiest starter on this team in 2024 and did whatever the team wanted him to do. I no longer have him as an SP5. My team has him at SP3 or SP4.

 

Lastly, starter Jose Quintana put smiles on my face this season, but his age makes me nervous to offer him more than a qualified offer for 2025.

 

There are others that you might think should have made this list, but these are my premier core players that I build around for both 2025 and the future.

27 comments:

  1. Not a core player but love the idea of Mets having Tyrone Taylor in his arb year off the bench and making starts as needed anywhere around the OF next year.

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  2. Mack, I agree with pretty much everything you said, except Peterson to me is SP 2/3, not SP 3/4. A quibble on my part. Ernest, I agree on Tyrone Taylor at the right (low) price. If he would cost $10 million like Bader did, pass.

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  3. Mack,
    We have the core, now let's add the complimentary pieces with a heavy focus on the bullpen and starting pitching.

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  4. Edwin still somehow had a 1.04 WHIP, and 84 Ks in 54 innings. His sticky finger fiasco may, however, have resulted, directly or indirectly, in arm injuries to Smith and Nunez. The bullpen got overworked. I can’t recall if that might have been a factor with the Scott injury, too.

    Edwin got better later in the season when he trusted in his fastball more.

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  5. D J, I think deep pockets Cohen will go hugely after game-changer Soto, too.

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    Replies
    1. Stearns said yesterday in his press conference that he basically can't wait for the off-season games to begin. Almost drooling. LOL

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  6. Mack, agreed. The $65 million for Scherzer, Verlander and McCann in 2024 is zero in 2025, so the hands have been untied. We don't know how much money the Mets made in the playoffs, so that cash inflow is a big factor too, that is sometimes too easily forgotten when thinking about revenues and expenses.

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  7. I will not endorse Inglesias automatically because his abnormally high BABIP is unsustainable. I wrote about a week ago that his .281 BABIP in the playoffs is a little low, but closer to reality. I like Inglesias as a tutor and mentor because he is smart. But, he chases everything and that needs to change.

    I like Taylor quite a bit and if they get Soto, Santandier, or Kyle Tucker, he can stand in CF. Also, Soto has been mostly a 6 WAR player with negative defense. That means that his offense is even better than a 6, maybe 7 WAR offensive player. I offer him 14/$500 or $36MM per year until his 40th birthday. If it isn’t good enough, I move to the next guy.

    The best Mets infield next year has Mauricio at 2B and Vientos at 3B. Vientos deserves it and finding a first baseman if Pete leaves is easier than finding a good third baseman.

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    Replies
    1. Understand your doubting Inglesias. He only led baseball in batting average

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    2. Mack, I understand the guy had a good year, and he is a good player, but all I’m saying is he isn’t “.337 good”, he’s more like his lifetime “.283 good”. Also, he doesn’t walk at all, so as we saw in the playoffs, he will chase curveballs away and he is useless if he does.

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    3. I said that I would resign him as a tutor and a mentor, not a main piece.

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  8. I would add Dedneil Nunez to this list if I was confident he will return 100%

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  9. Diaz may be a superstar and the highest paid closer in the game, but he needs to do some work in spring training. It is unacceptable to me that he has not developed a move to first, a slide step, and the habit of backing up the proper bases when throws are coming in from the outfield.

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  10. I've said it before. Roster has room for one of Iglesias or Acuna, not both.

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  11. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/10/offseason-outlook-new-york-mets-14.html

    This was posted a short while ago and has many answers to our questions. For example, the Mets are tied to $119MM for next year in contracts and another $19MM in estimated arbitration. That means they have $100MM to spend before the first Luxury Tax threshold.

    Also, Taylor is expected to make $2.9.

    Baty has his last option next year, so that may change the equation for him.

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  12. Adames at 3rd Vientos at first Lindor SS Mauricio/Acuna/McNeil 2nd base. Mack mentioned Acuna in CF which works for me and of course we GoGo for Soto pronto. The OMG thing was fun but "Meet the Mets" was my wedding song and were still knocking those home runs over the wall.

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  13. Gus, I still think the real number is $140 million, to avoid losing the first round pick’s 10 spots. $40 million over that $100 million. He may just say screw it, let’s win a few World Series. And SPEND.

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    1. Tom, Stearns said that he wants to have flexibility to add in the future also. So, you completely reset this year, and then next year you have some more room and Marte’s contract finishing. The year after, McNeil is finishing.

      The caveat is that Diaz has an opt out after this coming year…. Keep an eye on that.

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  14. Gary, Adames is very good but fans a real lot. Is he Javier Baez II?

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  15. Hey Mack. I like a lot of what you have there. Here's what I think, and this goes past core. I'll set the lineup in order as well.

    SS - Lindor (enough said)
    CF/LF - Nimmo
    RF - Soto/Marte
    3B - Vientos
    1B - Alonso
    DH - Marte/Soto
    C - Alvarez
    CF - Taylor (Gilbert / Williams waiting in the wings)
    2B - Acuna

    SP1 - Corbin Burns (6 years / 200 million-ish)
    SP 2 - Manea (3 years / 60 million)
    SP 3 - Senga
    SP 4 - Peterson
    SP 5 - Montgomery - build a salary swap with McNeil
    SP 6 - McGill

    Bring back Iglesias is as your infield super sub and insurance on Acuna not being ready yet. Add a few good relivers. This team could freaking rock. Even without Soto there's great options to plug into the DH spot and bring some thunder to extend this lineup.

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  16. Dan, of course, I expect Sproat to arrive quickly in 2025, too.

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  17. Gus, have you heard anything on BMD Oca? He could be a cheaper Stanek next year, IF healthy and IF the control is as good as Stanek's.

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  18. I fully expect Stearns to focus on Re-setting the salary level to be able to keep our draft position and int’l money. Given that, and I am probably in the minority here, but I don’t think they’ll make a big serious move for Soto. Someone is going to overpay for a soon to be DH. Stearns’ comment on not hamstringing the org tells me he’ll be more comfortable spreading $ out than committing 20% of the salary penalty tier on one guy. And I’m ok with that. One back problem and you’re looking at years and years of “hamstrung”. I noted too that Stearns said that he “loves” playing in the trade market. That’s because he and the guys he’s brought in around him are as good as anyone in baseball at evaluating talent. He wasn’t ready to make trades last year, but now that he’s had a season to evaluate the entire system, I think we’ll see multiple trades. The days when it seemed that every team we traded with had a better handle on the value of both their own prospects AND our prospects than our own front office are over. I finally trust out FO. I think that McNeil and Marte will both be on the OD roster, and I’m good with that. Both showed late that there’s something left, and their actual value is probably better than their trade value. Alonso will obviously be key to a number of other moves, and I think we’re probably 50-50 (40-60?) to sign him. Despite Pete’s emotional value to the fan base, I’m not sure that Stearns overpays in years or dollars to keep him. Guessing that we re-sign Iglesias, and that Acuña starts back in AAA, playing as much OF as IF.

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