Earlier in the week we examined the free agents to be for the New York Mets and it’s a whopping magnitude. The active roster is actually half of what you might think it is with 11 members set for their sell to the highest bidder freedom and two more with opt-out clauses. That means you are literally just guaranteed to have 13 folks from the 26 man roster returning. Considering the club made it all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS, there’s an awful lot of turnover on the immediate horizon.
Today we will examine the folks from 2024 who are eligible to return and see if perhaps some turnover is necessary in this group as well. In some cases it is a matter of looking to improve the overall strength of the collective team roster and in other cases it may be a function of reallocating payroll dollars in a different way.
Now do remember that when David Stearns arrive in New York he inherited the team with all of its 100-loss flaws from the dugout and front office people who did not get the job done. One by one changes were made but the 2024 season did not unfold exactly as expected. It was an excruciating April and May leaving folks wondering about the manager, the general manager, the players and whether or not the unsteady footing was going to become permanent.
Well, I don’t need to rehash the mighty changes that took place in the rostre construction, deployment and motivation that led instead to an 89 win regular season and very exclusive entry into October baseball. In some cases it was David Stearns who swallowed hard and made changes when players he selected were simply not the right fit. In other cases it was slumps and injuries that forced new faces onto the playing lineup.
So without further ado, let’s take a look at the great remainder of the Mets roster eligible to become part of the 2025 team. I’ve included some injury recoveries which fluffs up the numbers a bit, too:
Hitters
Luisangel Acuna — This little sparkplug did better than many had expected given his uneven Syracuse season. He showed defensive range, great speed and some power. Though he finished the year on the big club he may start the next one proving he can master the next lower level of competition.
Francisco Alvarez —- No one is quite sure what to make of the catcher of the present (and the future). He is improving defensively but his bat went into lost and found for a great part of the season. He did finish the NLCS with a pair of multi-hit games, so that probably restored a little bit of faith. Bear in mind he’s still just 22 years old.
Francisco Lindor — There’s nothing much to say here. He costs a fortune and plays like he deserves every penny of Steve Cohen’s money that he’s being paid.
Starling Marte — The former All Star is approaching his fourth and final year of the deal that brought him here courtesy of deposed GM Billy Eppler. Injuries have seriously hampered what was expected of the man after year one. The salary kept going up but the productivity didn’t. He can still run and hit around the diamond, but the defense has waned and he’s not delivering over $20 million of value.
Jeff McNeil — On a somewhat smaller dollar scale you have infielder Jeff McNeil who has once won an NL batting title but then went two straight years performing like a shell of his former self. The outfield assignments were relatively new for him who came up as a second baseman, but with limited power and a poor batting average you wonder how much advantage the team has when he is in the lineup.
Brandon Nimmo — What a long strange year it was for Nimmo. He hit with more power and drove in more runs than in the past, yet at the same time the solid and cautious hitter with a great eye dropped down in the eyebrow raising level for his poor batting average. He was fighting off plantar fasciitis which could impact comfort by not being able to plant your foot properly. Still, he’s a keeper.
Tyrone Taylor — A remnant of David Stearns’ Milwaukee days, Taylor showed defense, speed and an occasionally productive bat. He played more innings than would have been ideal, but with injuries and slumps to others there wasn’t much choice for manager Carlos Mendoza. He’s fine as a 4th outfielder but a bit weak to be penciled in as a starter.
Luis Torrens — He’s another player who seemed to be writing the word “steal” on Stearns’ resume. He started off with great hitting and solid defense. He became very important during Alvarez’ time off due to injury. Then he went into a long tailspin with the bat but he’s still markedly better than previous substitute catchers.
Mark Vientos — It’s almost like writing the Lindor comments all over again. Yes, his defense isn’t stellar but it’s improving. The offense was way better than even the most ardent optimist could have predicted. Given his paltry salary there’s no question that he will play. There’s less certainty, however, about where.
Pitchers
Paul Blackburn — News filtered out this week about a surgical procedure for Blackburn that will keep him off the mound for 5 months. Given that it’s late October, that would mean he’d be starting his Spring Training in April when the rest of the team departs for New York. His track record is modest and again I question whether keeping him makes any sense.
Jose Butto — His fantasy value may have been fantastic, but over the final month and in the post season he started showing some cracks in his armor. Still, he was way more good than bad and after transitioning to the bullpen out of necessity he flourished.
Edwin Diaz — Unfortunately he had an up and down year where people’s confidence in his ability took a major hit. Remember how he looked in his first year in Queens? While it wasn’t quite that extreme it was still a series of unfortunate flashbacks. Still, when he’s on his game he is unhittable.
Reed Garrett — The club needs to do what it can to bring the man back. He was unflappable when needed and at times showed the kind of fastball that opposing hitters find difficult to hit well. Sometimes players are late bloomers and in his case it may be what happened here.
Tylor Megill — The options are gone so Megill is a Met or he is trade bait. He showed sometimes he had great ability and other times he looked like vintage Tylor Megill (which was not a good thing for anyone). His chances of making the team are contractually in his favor. How much he would help and whether it’s in the rotation or pen is one of many great unknowns.
Dedniel Nunez — If he can recover well from his health problems then he’s definitely earned a place in the bullpen. He was never regarded as a top prospect but his tenure in the new pitching lab helped push him over the edge into quality.
David Peterson — Unlike his teammate Megill, Peterson put together a season for all Mets fans and stat nerds to enjoy. With free agents and injury recoveries leaving many question marks for the 2025 rotation, Peterson is in one of the top two spots for now until trades and/or free agency brings in more solid arms.
Kodai Senga — Let’s try to remember what he did in 2023 and forget the forced experiments of 2024. His arm (and later his leg) did not have the number of innings of solid strengthening to justify the attempt to force him into games prematurely (and it showed). With a full winter’s recovery time he should be ace quality once again.
Danny Young — While not exactly rock solid on his resume in the past, this Young pitched acceptably well for the Mets after making the team mid season. He finished with 42 games for the big club at age 30. The 4-1 record and 11.3 Ks per 9 IP looked great. The walk numbers of 4.3 per game did not. He’s a left handed option who has a good shot at returning but to be used in less high leverage situations if he does.
Right now it would appear that David Stearns has at best a skeleton crew of a competitive roster and he’s going to be earning his keep given how many holes need to be filled.
While the free agents are many, we have to realize that winning requires some over performance to an extent and rather than looking at what they did, figure out what we think they WILL do. For this reason, I don’t trust Winker and Inglesias. Plus, I believe it’s time to really see the kids: Mauricio, Acuna, Baty. Hard to expect repeat performances from some players, but what if Vientos regresses like Alvarez did? What if you resign Alonso, but it’s just more of the same, low average, less power, not very clutch and strikes out alot? I don’t think the Mets can go forward while trying to hang onto the past.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. You might expect Iglesias to look for a more regular role with another team if the Mets are indeed going to have during 2025 guys like Mauricio, Acuna, McNeil and even Baty fighting for playing time. I have an article for tomorrow with a first glance at the top of the offensive options on the market. There are some good ones who won't cost a king's ransom. Remember, they need not one or two but several.
ReplyDeleteIglesias made just 3 errors in the field. Keep that in mind.
ReplyDeleteAcuna fanned just 6 times in 40 regular season PAs with the Mets, a very good sign. Not sure if he needs more AAA. But his late show of power was flukey, as he hit only 7 HRs in HR-happy Syracuse.
Don’t forget Jeff McNeil had a .547 slug % post All Star game before he got hurt, and I recall a few other very near HR misses in that stretch.
Vientos could get better.
Pitching needs a free agent infusion. Reed Garrett was 5-0, 0.47 in April, and then 3-5 with an ERA of around 5 and lots of walks thereafter. Hopefully, he can pitch better than what he gave the Mets after April.
For everyone wanting to push McNeil off the roster, please remember that Mauricio is still hurt, Williams is off to a slow start after an injury-plagued season, and Iglesias just OPS'd 110 points above his career average. Acuna is still unproven, the 40 or so ABs he had in 2024 not withstanding. If you are going to replace Jeff, it is probably with someone from outside the organization
ReplyDeleteDan, good points, and we need to keep in mind that the median team average was just .243, and the highest team average was only .263. McNeil’s second half (cut short by the wrist fracture) was .289/.376/.547. Be careful what you wish to discard.
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing how little is left of this team.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts would be to first figure.out who your 6 infielders will be. Lindor is a must at SS. Vientos is a must either on first or third. Past that you need 2 starters and 2 utility players.
Candidates are:
Bring back Alonso
Bring back Inglesias
Acuña
McNeil (or in LF)
Mauricio
Baty
Someone else
That’s enough names that you don’t need anyone else. Plus, Baty is controllable until 2029. For everyone that thinks he will be traded off, that’s too much talent with control to give up on.
DeleteI would not discard McNeil. I would use him in RF and have Marte DH. If anything, I’d move on from Marte, if possible. I know Soto is all the wave, but, I don’t know if I should write his name in ink or pencil.
ReplyDeleteIs it too early to look at what prospects we need to add to the 40 man roster to protect them in the Rule 5 draft? I know free agents acquisitions and losses will figure into this. Thoughts anyone?
ReplyDeleteI really believe in Sterns and am sure he will surprise us in a positive way but I hope it starts with that Soto guy he's a good Juan.
ReplyDelete(Probably) unpopular opinions:
ReplyDelete1. I don’t see Stearns making a big, serious push for Soto at the numbers being thrown around. Too much of the (soft) salary cap dedicated to one guy for too long. He’s great, but that’s the kind of risk that can “hamstring” an org.
2. I think that Stearns will re-set the org under the threshold and keep all of his draft picks and int’l $.
3. I don’t see more than one (and maybe none) of Mauricio, Acuña, Williams, Gilbert, or Baty making the OD roster. Though we may see three or more of them at some point during the season, depending.
4. McNeil and Marte aren’t going anywhere this off-season. Both showed late that their actual value is likely much higher than their trade value.
5. With a year to evaluate talent up and down the org, I do expect Stearns to be active in the trade market.
6. They keep Manaea, either around 3/$70 or 4/$84.
7. Sproat will be given a real chance to break camp with the big club.
Trust me...
ReplyDeleteThe Mets will bringnin both starters and relievers