Mack’s Observations –
A while back I posted my, now infamous, blow it up plan for the
2025 season. It included trading off many of the existing contracts and going
bare to the bone with the hopes that the team could get under the penalty tax
level.
The hopes were that much more was going to immediately come out
of Syracuse for 2025. Well, due to injuries and poor performances, that no
longer seems doable.
It also was a little naïve when I assumed other teams would pay
the full salaries of aging players the Mets no longer wanted to pay going
forward.
So, what does a Plan B look like?
First, the ground rules:
Team Luxury Red Line - $241,000,000
Minimal Major League Salary - $760,000
Next, would be the players currently under contact and what I
project team controlled players would be offered:
1B (3B/DH)– Mark Vientos – (24: $590,145) –
2025: proj. $1.5mil
2B (SS/CF) – Luisangel Acuna (24: $590, 145) – 2025: proj. $760K
SS – Francisco Lindor – (24: $34.1m) – 2025 -
$34.1mil
3B (2B/SS) – Ronny Mauricio – (24: $743.5K – 2025: proj. $760K
UT (3B/2B) – Brett Baty – (24: $713,169 – 2025:
proj. $760K
C - Francisco Alvarez – (24: $762.5K – 2025
proj. $1,2mil
OF – Brandon Nimmo – 24: $20.5mil – 2025:
$20.5mil
In my previous “Blow It Up” post, I traded both McNeil and Marte because I felt prospects would be ready at these positions. Sadly, they won’t be on the roster on opening day, so they both will remain starting members of the outfield going into this season:
OF (2B/3B) – Jeff McNeil – ($24: $12.5mil – 2025: $12.5mil)
OF – Starling Marte – (24: $20.750m) –
2025: $20.750mil
SP – Kodai Senga – (24: $15mil) – 2025:
$15mil
SP – David Peterson – (24: $2.15mil) –
2025: proj. $2.75mil
SP – Tylor Megill – (24: $610,993K) –
2025 proj. $1mil
RHRP – Edwin Diaz – (24: $21,250) – 2025:
$21.5mil
RP – Jose Butto – (24: $526,225) –
2025: proj. $1mil
RP – Phil Maton – (24: $2,788,978) –
2025: $2,788,978
RP – Sean Reid-Foley – (24: $772,750) –
2025: proj. $780K
RP – Huascar Brazoban – (24: $590,145) –
2025: proj. $760K
RP – Grant Hartwig – (24: $153,109 –
2025: $760K)
RP – Dedniel Nunez – (24: $596,805) –
2025: proj. $1mil
RP – Alex Young – (24: $1,16mil) –
2025: $1,4mil)
That’s 20 players for a total of: $141,568,978
Let’s
round that up to $142mil
Now, let’s move on to the minors…
MLB says that these are the average salaries in
2024 for minor league players at different levels. I add to this my estimate
for 2025. Then I list the number of players each of these teams average based
on past active rosters, players on the IL, and players on the Developmental
Lists:
Rookie - $19.8K (2025:
$25K) 105 players $2,625mil
Low-A - $26.2K (2025:
$30K) 35 players $1.05mil
High-A - $27.3K (2025:
$30K) 35 players $1,05mil
AA -
$30,25K (2025: $35K) 35 players $1,225mil
AAA -
$35,8K (2025: $40K) 35 players $1.4mil
Total: $7.35mil
Let’s say I am way off on these minor league
numbers and they come in at around $8mil.
Add the $142mil…. TOTAL CURRENT 2025
PAYROLL: $150mil
Tax
penalty level: $241mil
That’s $91mil left for one utility infielder,
two more outfielders, a back-up catcher, and two more pitchers.
Hi Mack,
ReplyDeleteIsn't Tyron Taylor arbitration eligible for 2025. I didn't see him listed as returning next year.
On my 2025 team I still haven't made a decision on him
DeleteI would try to sign Soto before the option date deadline and then I need a no bullshit report from the Doctors on pending prospects in the chain
Mack, a worthy exercise but there are a couple of errors. Peterson will make $4.4MM as you reported from MLBTR. Yes, Taylor is missing. So is Blackburn and Torens.
ReplyDeleteA few thoughts: Make Baty play the outfield in March and use him all over the field. An opportunity to get a bit my playing time, if he is here next year. I would like to keep Inglesias, not for the repeat in production but for the example of play, with experience and leadership, and his good attitude towards the job. Lastly, if Alonso is willing to be realistic, I’d keep him in a short deal and put him at 1B, moving everybody back to their spots.
They ought to hire you to backcheck debates.
DeleteFirst, yes, the Peterson estimate needs to be adjusted
Taylor, Torres, and Blackburn are not mistakes. They just didn't make my MUST list and left the rest for future decisions
Baty has no future in the outfield
An option for Alonso could be a QO
DeleteMack, a QO for Alonso is not going to be accepted. He hired Boras to sign for a bazillion dollars over a lifetime contract. Once he realizes that teams will embrace him, but it won’t be as tightly as he hoped, maybe he will reconsider; or maybe he will leave Citifield and go to Washington or somewhere else where he hits better.
DeleteGreat piece of work, Mack. I agree with the updates in prior comments. One other point of confusion though. The competitive balance tax applies to the payroll, which is defined as the sum of the salaries on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. Your minors estimate does not apply for that quantity of players - only the ones that are on the 40 man but not in the 26 that you are projecting for the MLB team. So if you assume the 14 person difference is all AAA $40k players, it is only another $56k to the total.
ReplyDeleteI should have started this post saying all I wanted to point out that there is plenty of room to stay below the penalty red line AND go after quality free agents like Soto and Burnes
ReplyDeleteThe real “cap” is the $ point where the 10 slot first round draft drop hits, which is $40 million higher. As my brother indicates, Cohen could say screw it all and spend way above that level to buy his way to the top of the heap. Time will tell. I sure want to dominate, but have been thru two Brooklyn Nets attempts to buy a title, both of which were abject failures. Cohen bucks plus Stearns smarts? Or we could just kidnap Paul Skenes.
ReplyDeleteI do not them to pursue this off season frugally. Period. Only if it compiles a winner caliber team.
ReplyDeleteFollow my plan then fill in the holes
DeleteBottom line GET SOTO and Burnes/Fried and build a rock solid pen. We can't expect to win giving up 4 runs Monday in the 8th and 3 last night in the 8th only Lindors miracle saved us and any chance of getting Tylor's brother. I guess he revived his career with the Brewers pitching lab which I guess had Stearn's input...anybody know?
ReplyDelete