The Mets injuries this season were part of the reason they finished the year with David Peterson and Tylor Megill a regular part of their starting rotation. Paired with the veteran trio of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana the Mets proved capable of staying in games by limiting the offensive damage by opposing hitters.
Lost somewhere in this mix was midseason acquisition Paul Blackburn from Oakland. Unlike previous started Chris Bassitt who simply played himself into a regular asset for the top five guys to begin games, things did not progress as well for Blackburn.
Look at his career track record and the numbers suggest borderline 5th starter capability. He hold a career ERA of an unimpressive 4.85 with a record of 22-28. The other scary number is his WHIP of 1.405 meaning he’s allowing nearly 1.5 runners per inning pitched. Part of the struggle is not his control as he’s averaged under 3 walks per 9 innings pitched and he fans a modest 6.9 over the same interval. Where it really hurts is hits allowed. In 428 IP he’s allowed 470 hits.
Recently some folks were commenting on me seemingly having forgotten about him when looking forward to the 2025 rotation possibilities. No, I did not. He will earn about $4.4 in arbitration which is not horrible, but his numbers in New York certainly were. The now 30 year old pitcher over 5 starts for the Mets backslid to a 5.18 ERA, allowing 11.5 hits per 9 IP with a finishing number of 31 hits over 24 IP. His WHIP exploded to nearly 1.600.
Now that he had the hand injury on a batted ball and then spinal fluid issues that kept him on the IL, the Mets kind of out of necessity and desperation turned to Tylor Megill. For the year the numbers are not impressive but they include the earlier and middle parts of the year when he wasn’t refocused to how he appeared later in the year. The season’s 4.04 ERA is a big improvement over what he’s done in the past, but his last 5 games all resulted in Mets wins. Over that period the ERA was just 2.50.
Going into 2025 while the assumption is that Kodai Senga will be healthy and the Mets will negotiate to keep Sean Manaea on the roster, then you have David Peterson and Tylor Megill ready to take two more starting rotation slots. With Christian Scott out for the year with TJS, there’s definitely a need for another starter.
However, ask yourself this question. How big a drop-off in quality would it be to face Paul Blackburn? Yes, for a billionaire a contract in the $4 million plus range is not the issue. What is important is whether or not trotting out Blackburn in his age 31 season is somehow finally going to put it all together? Frankly a Joey Lucchessi would cost less and deliver more. I’m not suggesting he’s a perfect 5th starter, but it would seem that spending over $4 million for Blackburn may not be the wisest thing to do.
Instead, the Mets could look to bring in a fresh arm via free agency or trade. While obviously everyone is drooling over the prospect of Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell, it’s entirely possible to find a middle rotation starter for a lot less money if those $30 million per year starters are not the best investment.
I’m not playing cheapskate, but if the club is serious about potentially paying for Pete Alonso, bidding on Juan Soto and considering other expensive hitters, then factor in the cost for Sean Manaea, well, at some point you have to budget accordingly.
Right now the club would be seeking an improvement over Paul Blackburn, not over someone like Jacob deGrom. You also have to remember that Brandon Sproat who struggled in his first taste of AAA could regroup and work with the pitching lab to make himself into a dominant arm once again.
Consequently a one-year deal for a $4 to $10 million pitcher might be a shrewder move than returning Blackburn. The club has admitted personnel judgments that didn’t work. Remember Adrian Houser? How about Omar Narvaez? Tomas Nido? Joey Wendle? Zack Short? Ben Gamel? Brett Baty? D.J. Stewart? Yohan Ramirez? Michael Tonkin? Jorge Lopez? Jake Diekman? Julio Teheran? The mark of a strong front office is not letting ego get in the way of improving the ballclub.
Going into 2025 I’m ready to start with the top four outlined above and I’m open to a new 5th member of the rotation. How about you?
Blackburn is probably the equivalent of Joey Lucchesi, and yes, Joey might be better. And cheaper. I would consider Max Fried. Hurt the Braves, sign him as a free agent. We will see.
ReplyDeleteMegill is in my rotation. Peterson is "my ace" and is, too. The talent evaluators know pretty much when Sproat will be ready. Hitters (like Vientos) can be harder to predict than pitchers, because MLB pitching is so much better than AAA, and the pressure greater.
Pete? He was HUGE last night. Which is why I suggested previously we see the entire season play out, then evaluate. It is going to be a difficult decision. He may truly love the Mets. But he may be better off as a Cub. I always remember what Kingman did after his struggling initial homer-heavy time with the Mets - he killed it in Chicago. If he sneaks out 10 more HRs a year in Wrigley than Citi, his numbers will look drastically better. Kong II.
Pitcher wise, I agree with Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Butto
ReplyDeleteMy guess last night's incredible win is going to energize Cohen to go all George in the off season and try to sign the biggest names for the open holes in the 26
As for Pete, that home run proves the power he has. Basically threw a bat out at a change he wasn't expecting to receive
ReplyDeleteGuaranteed a QO but watch for other teams to up the anty
He certainly upped his price as a free agent with that home run.
ReplyDeleteWhy not keep the starting rotation as is with a healthy Senga?.
ReplyDeleteBring back Severino or if they want to go cheaper, Quintana. These guys just proved they can take the heat and perform when needed. With the money that it would take to bring in an ace you could keep Manaea and Severino.
Regardless of how the story playoffs go, our starting staff is inferior to Braves and Phillies. Senga even when healthy(an iffy proposition) hasn’t shown he can pitch every 5th day. Trades are difficult for the Mets because every Mets minor leaguer (except maybe Sproat) had a poor or injured year and thus have little trade value. We need a proven ace. Time for Stearns to show he has a big market mentality and use Cohen’s money to sign Burnes
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