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11/9/24

Reese Kaplan -- As Abbott & Costello Say, "What's on 2nd?"


With all of the media furor over the need to supplement the starting rotation that’s currently down three members, fixing the bullpen down even more, addressing Pete Alonso and negotiating for the top hitters available for Steve Cohen’s money, one position that is just as interesting but not nearly as headline grabbing is the story of second base. 

Over the years the Mets have played some great people there like Edgardo Alfonzo, Jeff Kent (he was better than the Mets believed), Wally Backman in his pre-ex managerial days, as well as others.  

Right now the incumbent is long term Met Jeff McNeil who already has a National League batting title on his resume, but whose most recent two seasons have been valued more for his positional versatility than what he does with the stick.

After his second All Star Game appearance in 2022 McNeil went on to finish the season with a stellar .326 batting average to win that title while also generating 5.7 WAR which was the best of his career.  That output helped convince Steve Cohen to make a long term investment in McNeil who followed it up in 2023 by hitting 56 points lower and seeing that WAR metric drop down to just 2.4.  That’s still pretty good considering his first year of the new deal just paid him $6.25 million.  Folks were a bit let down but they weren’t prepared for 2024.

With the terrible April and May the Mets were sinking fast.  McNeil didn’t help much with a frigid bat in the first few months which took a season ending .279 extended streak to raise his season mark to a paltry .238.  The home runs were slightly up while RBIs went down, though to be fair he was up 161 fewer times this season than last.  His WAR dropped again to 1.6 and he was paid $10.25 million for his efforts.  People were much happier seeing utility man Jose Iglesias play 2B and come to the plate than they were about McNeil given his second straight year of offensive decline.

That brings us to the upcoming season and what to do with McNeil.  He is on tap for the next two years to earn $15.75 million each year and then again for a third year or get paid a $2 million buyout.  In grand total at minimum $33.5 million which at an aggregated two-year rate it would amount to $16.75 million for 2025, 2026 and the buyout.  It would take a minimum of 2.2 WAR to justify that level of pay.

Now a great many people became quickly enamored of September call up Luisangel Acuna.  Sometimes it’s only a matter of what they’ve seen recently, but Acuna had a terrific AA campaign in 2023 followed by a bit of a tough time in AAA in 2024.  Combined between the Rangers and the Mets Acuna in 2023 hit .294 with 9 HRs, 63 RBIs and 57 SBs.  Wow!

Unfortunately as he faced a higher caliber of pitching in Syracuse those numbers dipped.  He finished his AAA season hitting .258 which is a big drop, but still he provided a little punch with 7 HRs and 50 RBIs while pilfering 40 bases.  Consequently the brief September trial during which he hit .308 with 3 HRs and 6 RBIs in just 39 ABs had people thinking this guy could be a great asset to watch in the future. 

Forgotten between the run to the playoffs, the bad year by McNeil and the brief flash of Acuna was someone who when facing AAA pitching for an entire year put together the best season of his young career.  Ronny Mauricio hit .292 with 23 HRs, 71 RBIs and 24 stolen bases.  His 108 game trial over 26 games in the majors that year leaves his still with rookie eligibility and after two operations for ACL and scar tissue removal, it’s possible his base running might be a bit tentative until he’s sure he’s fully capable.  Still, the home run power and batting average shouldn’t be impacted and he very much belongs in the conversation for a switch from SS to 2B if they decide McNeil is an outfielder or trade bait. 

Right now I’d like to see the Mets front office look at a swap of questionable contracts to help their needs in the starting rotation, the bullpen and the outfield.  McNeil’s obligation could go to offset whatever paycheck(s) they pick up. 

In the interim, do what you can to sign Jose Iglesias as an excellent fall back position should one of the two top infield youngsters struggle in the early going.  I kind of like that approach better for 2025 than I do expecting another batting title from McNeil.  


13 comments:

  1. I think Mauricio will need time in the minors to reshare en his skills and prove he still has durability. If he does play 2B, no Chase Utley slides by opponents into him, please.

    LAAcuna still feels like a good back up IF to me.

    It will be interesting to see how Stearns re-forms a contending club in 2025. Part of being a contending club is keeping struggling and substandard players to a minimum.

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  2. I can understand how his baserunning skills could be off due to knee problems, but I'm not sure how that would affect his swing.

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  3. Reese, I just think it is a year of rust for Ronny. I think of Mets minor leaguers in the Arizona Fall League who each missed more than half the regular season. All 3 have not hit well, although they have walked a lot in a high walk Fall League. I don't think it is talent - I just think there is a rust period for many players. And for Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert, the two closest to the majors, that rust period since returning from injury has been LOOONNGG.

    They both seem to starting to hit better as the AFL season draws to a close before Thanksgiving, thankfully. But it is hard to imagine Stearns thinking either of them will be ready until mid-season. If I was Stearns, I'd like to see them dominating the minors before any call up. They have not dominated this year.

    I am at least a bit concerned with Mauricio playing 2B on double plays and such after his injury. Doing pivots while guys are sliding in? You better be 100% healed. That is why I'd prefer him in the outfield, which of course he hardly ever played. You can get hurt out there, too, if you do not know what you're doing.

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  4. On my 2025 team..

    McNeil is in a challenging outfield in right, unless Stearns signs that guy who's name sounds like that lizard

    If that happens, I put him back on second and add Acuña as one of my UTIF

    Mauricio starts off in AAA

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  5. This is a great topic. Jeff McNeil has a lot of loyalty from fans (including me) for what he has done over the years. However, if last year was not a fluke, but an indication of declining skills then it is time to establish the new second baseman. Iglesias was great there - tremendous glove skills and an exceptional year at the plate. I don't know if he can repeat that feat nor do I expect that he will sign with the Mets given his new association with Scott Boras. I think Acuna showed us something briefly last year and if he can repeat that in spring training he gets the spot.

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  6. Iglesias is a must-add for the 2025 roster. That way you can see how McNeil, Acuna and Mauricio perform and whether or not they are better at the starting position.

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  7. An interesting stat on Jeff McNeil: He played in 129 games for the Mets in 2024. 69 of those games the Mets won and 60 of them they lost. In the 69 games they won, McNeil hit .268 with an OPS of .758, striking out just 32 times. In the 60 games they lost, McNeil hit .201 with an OPS of .609, striking out 36 times. Interestingly, he hit 6 homers each in the wins and the losses. So one can conclude that "as McNeil goes, the Mets go". McNeil did have a terrific month of July at the dish, coinciding with the Mets coming back. His getting hurt in September probably led to the Atlanta series heroics.

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  8. That shows the importance of having a complete offense and having a real hitter in the #7 hole. When the bottom of the order is hitting, they win, when it isn't they suffer.

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  9. The Mets to me are in a bad situation for 2025.
    If they sign Soto and Adames, it means that 3B and RF will be taken for the foreseeable future. Vientos will move to 1B which means the only position open in the infield is 2B unless they keep McNeil there.

    The outfield could be McNeil in LF, Nimmo CF, Soto RF which basically leaves only 2B as a question mark.

    So what do the Mets do if a couple of youngsters from Mauricio, Williams, Clifford, Baty and others have big years but no path to the majors due to positions being locked?

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  10. Viper, I like how you think. It would make sense to only sign one offensive free agent and maybe two pitchers. However, if they sign two offensive free agents, then you have more prospects to trade for Crochet of whom the White Sox want position prospects for, not pitching prospects. Also, right now, the entirety of the Mets position prospect top ten look bad.

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  11. Most of the top prospects were hurt last year. Mauricio for example, could hit 20hrs, steal 20 hit in the 270 range but he had a wasted year due to injury. Would it make more sense for the Mets to play Mauricio for the league minimum or pay 25M for Adames who may not end up liking his move to 3B?.

    On the pitching side, Sproat and Tong seem like they have what it takes to be part of the future rotation so the Mets would be wise to not lock themselves into too many long contracts for the starters. (Scott may be back for 2026 as well)

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  12. The original plan reported for Mauricio was for him to play in the DWL for rust-removal, then see how he does in ST.
    Given the comments by Stearns a few days ago to the effect that his recovery is going much more slowly than expected, the DWL is out, and his ability to play in ST is very much in doubt.

    AAA has to be his OD assignment.

    Until we learn Pete's home for '25, all other moves have to be on hold, especially going for Adames.

    Syracuse will be closely watched this season, after so many touted-but-struggling prospects there this year.

    Will Jett, Gilbert, Mauricio, Tidwell, Hamel, Vasil and others rebound, or will they struggle/fail again?

    And will there be spots for them in Queens if David signs veterans in the next 2 months?
    It'll be an interesting Winter, to say the least. Buckle your seat belts!

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