Reese Kaplan -- Elections are Over and the Off Season Starts

Now that the election is over and free agents are fully available to be signed, the momentum shifts from politics to superstardom.  Of course, the majority of attention will be paid to Juan Soto and to some extent he stagnates the offers on the table to anyone else until he is officially off the market and the prices can be set for others.

Think about it for a minute...would you take an offer for $140 million for 7 years at an average annual pay rate of $20 million or would you want to see how much more an owner will dig into his piggy bank when all of the sudden your stock has risen notably given when the big fish is no longer swimming freely in the tank?

Since an agent’s fee is usually written as a percentage of earnings from his client, the bigger the contract the bigger the commission check.  Scott Boras is probably the most trenchant of the agents at taking the longest view when it comes to securing a client contract.  Now this approach many indeed be emulated by many other agents this time around, though it doesn’t always work. 

Want an example?  When did J.D. Martinez sign a free agent contract in the last off season?  If you answered a week before Opening Day, you will a prize.  Coming off a season in which he hit .271 with 32 HRs and 103 RBIs in just 432 ABs super agent Boras managed to get him a one-year deal with the Mets for only about half of his maximum annual paycheck.  That waiting game doesn’t always work in a player’s favor. 

So while the pitching market is alive and well being led in any order by Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell and Max Fried, there likely isn’t as much of a prolonged waiting game at play there as no one is seeking a deal worth more than $600 million.  Then again, the waiting game’s gate does swing both ways.  Once two of that quartet are gone will that skyrocket the price for the remaining duo or will they use whatever the top two get as a metric on which to measure what they are now worth?

What also makes it more difficult for pitchers is the greater probability of long term injury.  Take a look at the number of games missed by Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw and many others who when health command every cent that they get but when hurt get that same paycheck for doing nothing in the Won/Loss column for their employers. 

That conjecture brings us to David Stearns and his current plans for the team.  No longer under the mid market constraints of Milwaukee and in the driver’s seat after making it to the National League Championship Game, he’s doubly prepared to shake things up in his sophomore season for the Mets.  Throw in that tidy little payroll availability from departing free agents and ending previous player obligations and he’s especially well heeled for the upcoming negotiations.

Now most of us have focused on the free agent market as the primary approach to take, but taking on big contracts in trade works just as well.  We’ve all heard names of players on other clubs whose paycheck exceeds that team’s 2025 diagrams for how to construct a winning season and as such it might take far less in return for a star caliber player if you’re willing to absorb most of or all of the salary obligation?  It may be time to study who all is out there worth considering via trade.