Reese Kaplan -- Taking Off the Gloves And Examining Juan Soto

So the gloves have come off and thus far already eleven major league teams have been in contact with uber free agent Juan Soto.  Now it will be another three days until money can begin to be discussed, but it does represent the spectrum any team desiring his services will face.

For a moment’s review, let’s take a look at his resume.  He’s a career .285 hitter.  Other than utility man Jose Iglesias the Mets had no one in that range of regularly effective hitting.  He averages  35 HRs, 102 RBIs and 10 SBs per 162 game season.  The 35 HRs is more-or-less what you’d get from Pete Alonso as is the RBI total.  He’s a left handed bat whereas Alonso swings from the right side.  He’s known far more for his bat than his glove, but he’d be playing likely right field should he come to the Mets.  In his career which started in the majors at the ripe  old age of 19 with the Washington Nationals, he has AVERAGED A 6.1 WAR PERFORMANCE PER YEAR through his hardly elderly age 25 season.  

He has four silver sluggers, four All Star appearances and no MVPs to go along with no Rookie of the Year award (Ronald Acuna beat him out for ROY in 2018).

As many folks have done, take a look at Shohei Ohtani and the deal he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as free agent at the age of 29; he’s accrued a Rookie of the Year, 4 All Star appearances, two Silver Sluggers and two MVP awards.  Oh yeah, did we mention that 50 SB speed and the fact he’s a solid starting pitcher as well? 

Los Angeles factored in all he could do and made an offer that was unheralded in the history of the game.  He was going to receive $700 million over the course of 12 years with about $300 million of it deferred.  Still, any way you slice it, that’s about $58.3 million per season.  Somehow it seemed unlikely that the Ray or Brewers or Guardians were going to fork over that kind of dough.  Surely the most well heeled teams could, but the accountants likely put the brakes on the potential for injury and the down sides of hamstringing your budget for a dozen years.

How’d it work out?  Well, there weren’t any pitches thrown by Ohtani as he allowed his arms to heal from surgery, but his 2024 season included MVP level stats with a .310 batting average, 54 HRs, 130 RBIs, the aforementioned 50 SBs.  How did the Dodgers do with Ohtani in their already formidable lineup?  Well, both New York baseball teams got sent home and the Dodgers just scheduled a ticker tape parade in Los Angeles.

So, getting back to the younger, non-pitching and non-stealing Mr. Soto...what exactly is he worth?  You hear numbers being parlayed about in the media anywhere between $500 million and $700 million for the contract.  Let’s go with the higher figure first since it would put him exactly on par with what Ohtani earns.  Would you pay $58.3 million per year with various delays and deferrals to put him in a Mets uniform? 

No.

He is statistically not in the same league as Ohtani but that’s not a bad thing.  It is, however, a chance to drive the price down by browbeating his agent with hard numbers.  He’s never going to pitch a game and even 20 SBs in an unseen use of his legs would pale in comparison to Ohtani. 

Is it possible the Dodgers, Yankees or even the Mets would bid that high?  Frankly, yes it is.  But it would be wrong to do so. 

Then what if Soto demands the money each year in full without any deferrals?  Well, that will cause quite a few of the thus far eleven suitors to high tail it out of the room.  For the sake of argument, let’s say the final number is $600 million, a compromise between the lowest figure and the highest.  That would mean an average hit to your budget of $50 million per season.  

That’s a mighty tough nut to swallow and you wonder how he performs in his late 20s would compare to how he would produce in his late 30s.  With deferrals you can justify the numbers.  Without them, well, knowing that your perhaps $200 million payroll is already 25% gone on a single player is not smart business, but then again the sport of baseball is more about entertainment and momentum than it is about balancing the books. 

We’ll continue this Soto cost discussion on Monday and look at some of the alternatives it either the Mets decide he’s too big a financial hit to absorb or if they’re shut out of the bidding process by someone who feels differently about their fan perceptions on winning this bid for baseball’s current version of the Hope Diamond.  Just remember he's not quite in that same stratosphere as Ohtani.