There have been countless evaluations of what went wrong for the Mets in 2025 and what changes they need to make to ensure a repeat won’t occur for the 2026 season. Everyone who is a fan knows the issues — injuries, lack of depth, inconsistent offense and, if you believe the personnel changes in the coaching staff, a poor performance of the people assigned to keep the players on track.
We can start with pitching as it was a black hole for most of the season that ended without October baseball. First were the injuries with multiple players missing months (or longer) due to arms, abdominal muscles, elbows and other maladies. For awhile it was never clear who was going to start and who was going to relieve due to the revolving door of pitchers who, by necessity, needed to be changed as often as you would your underwear.
Then came the exhaustion. We saw David Peterson morph from ace-like stuff to batting practice pitcher. Kodai Senga did the same and was treated even more harshly with a demotion to Syracuse. Clay Holmes started off quite well but the unaccustomed volume of innings had him go through a less successful period. Sean Manaea had a late start to the season and finished with some pretty ugly numbers including a 5.64 ERA. Frankie Montas requiring surgery was addition by subtraction and Tylor Megill is gone for all of 2026 as well.
Out of sheer necessity the Mets made the three late season additions of Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong. McLean was a life raft for his 8 starts finishing with a 5-1 record and a 2.08 ERA. Sproat who was a 3.83 ERA pitcher in the minors saw his number jump by nearly a full run. The potential is there but not as an ace level pitcher. Tong is perhaps the most puzzling as he totally dominated in AA at age 22 with 20 starts, going 8-5 with a 1.59 ERA, a WHIP under 1.000 and notching an average of 14.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. He hit the wall big time in the majors. After a two game stint in AAA he finished his rookie campaign over 5 starts going 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA. He’s got premier stuff but perhaps was rushed a bit in the club’s dual needs for pitching and their pursuit of the playoffs.
Going into 2026 everyone is truly unsure what the front office will do to address these issues. If Edwin Diaz indeed departs it would not be stunning to see Clay Holmes returned to the bullpen where he has dominated in the past. If so, then the club is looking at potentially Sean Manaea, Nolan McLean, Kodai Senga and David Peterson as starters with Sproat and Tong fighting it out for SP5. That rotation does not exactly fill opposing hitters with anxiety.
Many are advocating the Mets mortgage the future in trades for the likes of Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, Paul Skenes or Freddy Peralta. Skenes and Skubal most definitely have ace stuff, but the asking prices in terms of player personnel will be huge. Peralta and Ryan are probably number two level starters or number ones on less robust staffs. Still, any of these four would immensely help.
The free agent options are plentiful but many of them are going to be seeking long term deals for big money. Since David Stearns has rightfully been reluctant to commit to such an injury prone position as starting pitcher for megabucks and multiple years, it’s more likely they will fish around the middle of the pack for solid starters who are not quite ace material. Hopefully this exploration will not include the likes of the next Frankie Montas.
One name that has come up multiple times is starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai currently with Seibu. He’s a slim and small pitcher who relies more on location and ball spin than sheer velocity. His NPB Japanese career ERA is 3.15 which is quite good, but since 2022 he has pitched even better to an ERA under 2.50. In his most recently complete season he went 10-5 with a 1.92 ERA, averaging 9.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and a WHIP of just 0.892. Going into 2026 he will be just 28 years old and although not as highly regarded as other NPB free agents, he looks to be someone affordable and worth a longer term deal than the over-34 aged pitchers in free agency domestically.
Not to rule out that group entirely, there are some decent arms to explore, including former Met Chris Bassitt, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly who will cost between $14 and $20 million on short term deals of one year plus an option for a second. These types of additions would enable the Mets to keep Sproat and Tong as depth pieces working on improving their games and consistency in Syracuse.



Fixing the pitching will be a dilemma. I am inclined to stay with our “yout’s” as Joe Pesci might say. I think McLean, Sproat and tong will combine on a sub-4.00;ERA next year…and only get better as time goes on.
ReplyDelete1. I expect Jonah Tong to start the season in AAA-Syracuse
ReplyDelete2. I expect the opening day roster to include Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, Chris Holmes,and Kodai Senga
3. I expect a new name in the opening day rotation
4. I expect Edwin Diaz to be re-signed early
5. I expect to be in my bed by 10
Mack, I wonder if they will re-sign Griffin Canning. Seems to mean Achilles tear is more than a 9 month recovery, though. What about Manaea?
ReplyDeleteTom
DeleteI don't think that Cohen % Co. is going to spend as much time, going forward, on loyalty and eating dinners at Peter Luger's. Look for a more no-nonsense approach going forward. The one more game needed loss really stung this year through the corporate offices.
I expect Canning to be canned or put on the shelf
As for Manaea, he's going to have to earn a spot in camp while Stearns tried to find him a new home.
That $50 million Manaea is owed will be expensive to peel off. But will he be functional and tradable if they decide to use him and offload him at the 2026 trade deadline, when he will be owed about $36 million?
ReplyDeleteI’d prefer he go elsewhere this off season, too. Another contract doozy.
The 50mil eating is potentially five months profits in Cohen's new casino.
DeleteI kinda like our internal pitching options. Expect comeback years from Peterson, Senga and Manaea while top prospects mature
ReplyDeleteHave a piece on Senga & Manaea coming next week. Their injuries were devastating to their pitching mechanics this year. Really screwed them up. They are both like old English sports cars, delicate & fussy to fix. Plus now they have aged as well. Can’t really keep both next year.
ReplyDeleteI believe like Mack, Tong will start the year in AAA. Possibly Sproat also if he doesn't pitch well in ST.
ReplyDeleteNow the $64,000 question, what the heck do you do with Manaea's untradable contract. I think he will be on a pretty short leash and if he doesn't turn it around and at least be serviceable they will have to cut him by mis season.
As for Peterson, unless he gets traded, they will run him back for his last year of eligibility. Hopefully he doesn't flame out in the second half like last year. If so, he joins Manaea on the scrap heap.
Canning, been there done that. If you remember he was starting to return to his norm before he got hurt.
I think they go into the season with
Senga
McClean
Manaea
Peterson
Sproat (possibly) unless the make a trade or pick up a mid-level FA
Scott is also returning from injury and his rehab has gone very well. If the rotation is set up something like
ReplyDelete1. McLean
2. (FA or trade target)
3. Holmes
4. Scott
5. Whoever isn’t traded of Senga and Peterson, if both are then Sproat
6. Manaea (wouldn’t be shocked if he bounces back after injury)
Then I wouldn’t be upset with that. Tong and possibly Sproat will start in AAA and be more ready to come up after injuries or trades.
Thanks V, I totally forgot Holmes. And I just believed Scott wouldn't be ready by opening day.
ReplyDeleteI'm not as sold on Scott as some on this site. His ERA was ballooning before he got hurt. Add to that missing a year of development???
Scott isn’t technically a lock for OD but he will most likely be with the major league team for the entirety of Spring Training.
DeleteI don’t think Scott is a TOR starter, but probably has a future as a very solid middle or at least backend of rotation starter. His ERA was ballooned by his inability to get LHHs out and in an interview recently he described how he’s worked on methods to fix that.
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DeleteThat's very encouraging, would help him out immensely.
ReplyDeleteI also look at the quality of innings pitched in addition to regaining quantity. Barring injuries to the young guys in addition to Manaea, Senga and Peterson (if none are traded) you’re probably getting
Delete-175+ IP from Nolan McLean
-100+ IP from Brandon Sproat
-100+ IP from Jonah Tong
-75+ IP from Christian Scott
-50+ IP from Will Watson, Jack Wenninger and/or Jonathan Santucci
-50+ IP from Ryan Lambert and/or Dylan Ross
Removing the IP we are getting from some of those guys this year that’s roughly 460 IP from internal arms
Those innings will replace:
-38.2 IP from Frankie Montas (6.28 ERA)
-23.2 IP from Paul Blackburn (6.85 ERA)
-55 IP from Ryne Stanek (5.17 ERA)
-68.1 IP from Tylor Megill (3.95 ERA)
-23.2 IP from Justin Hagenman (4.56 ERA)
-15 IP from Blade Tidwell (9.00 ERA)
-9.2 IP from Dedniel Nuzez (4.66 ERA)
-8 IP from Dickey Lovelady (6.75 ERA)
Even if some of those guys go down, that’s still a large difference to me.
I'd be surprised to see Watson, Santucci or Wenniger this year.
ReplyDeleteCould see Tong mid season.
Lambert if ready
Should expect Scott at some point, maybe long relief?
Don't forget we resigned Lovelady to a major league contract for next season. YIKES....WHY?
Lovelady was signed because he’s the only guy available before FA starts who will accept immediately being released a week or two into the season when Minter comes back. And it’s apparently a split contract.
DeleteI wouldn’t be surprised if we saw one of Santucci, Wenninger or Watson at the end of the year (but we won’t see more than one most likely). However, the 2025 Mets were a very injured team. One hopes the 2026 team won’t be so we won’t have to call as many players up.
I agree with RVH that the particular injuries Senga and Manaea were the major factors in their performance. Manaea's injury had obvious impact on his ability to throw with fluidity from his now preferred arm angle. Senga's impacted ability to recruit energy and transfer it efficiently through core, the result of which was loss of control of fork ball and inadequate speed differentials among pitches, not to mention control. Can they come back to form? Depends.. But what can you count on from them. Depends on what you see their norm being. Senga's is much higher than Manaea's as without additional evidence, his perfromance in last half of 2024 is presumptively an outlier.
ReplyDeleteWhat is Shane Bieber's status?
I think Sproat's stuff makes him strong candidate for high leverage relief work at this point. That could change with more movement on his fastball and a third pitch.
Tong's delivery makes throwing an off speed pitch with sharp horizontal movement very difficulty ( notice that this was also true of the Toronto 22yr old with an over the top delivery). Tong will need to develop a pitch with horizontal movement and a sharper break on his curveball. So he should start at Syracuse.
Mclean has maturity, range of pitches, and experience. Best to count on him as a really good number 2 with potential to be a 1 for sure.
Pederson is a very plausible candidate for long relief and spot starter and his price is low.
Holmes proved to be a promising 3/4 if he can stretch out his innings a bit more.
IMHO, Mets need a middle of rotation innings eater: can't yet count on that from Senga; and a number 1/1a like Peralta, or maybe Ryan who will need work in the lab to alter his pitch usage; and someone on a par with Bieber to fill out the starter rotation this year. I don't think it makes sense to have mid season call ups as part of a plan for pitching. Best thought of as replacements in the event of injury.
So for me, I think the rotation should look something like:
Peralta/Ryan
Mclean
Senga
Bieber like
Holmes
Peralta/Mclean are both 1a/2 at this point, for different reasons and are complementary
Senga is a high potential 3
Holmes is a very solid 4
I like Bieber as a 5 but then we have no lefty starters, so perhaps Pederson is a fit here, and would be a regular if we continue to have extra rest for Senga
Bullpen
Diaz
Minter
I think Rogers returns to West Coast
Raley
Helsey ( only at a reasonable price) I believe his poor performance was an outlier
Sproat (Stearns has shown willingness to use young potential starters in bullpen roles early in their careers)
Pederson (long relief and spot start)
Broz
Neither Peralta nor Ryan or Bieber will command wealth of top prospects; nor will they command outsized long term contracts, allowing room for promotion of fully developed pitchers from the minors to reach the majors ready to perform at a high level
One other comment. Don't want to count on any pitcher promoted from the minors -- even Mclean-- to perform at their highest level in their first full year in the majors. More strain from higher leverage situations and they usually pitched far fewer innings overall and in individual games in the minors. Can't underestimate value therefore of innings eater, spot starters (remember Trevor Williams) and major league ready appearances now and then from minor leaguers ready to take the ball at the major league level.
ReplyDelete