Tom Brennan - Mets Salary Thoughts of the 2026 Kind

UNLIKE UNCLE STEVE, I HATE SPENDING MONEY 

Danny Abriano of SNY compiled 2026 Mets salary thoughts very nicely in a recent article in October. I’ll consider that estimated and actual data which shared, and share some of my own thoughts about Mets’ Mega Money Moolah Matters in my article today, as I briefly interrupt my 7 part Top Prospects series of articles with this topic.

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2026

Danny notes that Mets enter the offseason with roughly $223 million committed for 2026, per Cot's Contracts. He noted that includes the $18 million estimated for player benefits, the money owed to zero-to-three players in both the majors and minors who are under team control, and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.  

When you have the salaries of Soto, Nimmo, and Lindor, that alone gets you half way to the luxury tax threshold each season.

This will increase with arbitration raises owed to a handful of players, including David Peterson and Francisco Alvarez.

The $223 million does not include Pete Alonso ($27 million player option for 2026) and Edwin Diaz ($18.63 million owed if he doesn't opt out). Both opted out. 

Rolling off the books are the contracts of free agents Starling Marte ($20.75 million in 2025), Jesse Winker ($7.5 million), Ryne Stanek ($4.5 million), Griffin Canning ($4.25 million), and the four major trade deadline acquisitions: Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Cedric Mullins, and Gregory Soto.

If it was up to me, I’d seek to retain Helsley, Canning, and Rogers there.

The Mets will have big decisions to make on Alonso and Diaz. 

WHAT WILL ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?

The Mets have nine arbitration-eligible players.

Abriano noted that those players and their projected salaries, via MLB Trade Rumors, totaling $23.5 million are:

David Peterson: $7.6 million
Tyrone Taylor: $3.6 million
Tylor Megill: $2.6 million
Francisco Alvarez: $2.4 million
Luis Torrens: $2.2 million
Reed Garrett: $1.4 million
Nick Madrigal: $1.35 million
Huascar Brazoban: $1.3 million
Max Kranick: $1 million

I personally believe that Megill and Madrigal are unlikely to get retained, since Megill is not ready until 2027, and Madrigal is “army surplus” with all the Mets’ infielders, and every dollar retained comes with a huge tax.  But, of the two, Megill might be retained because when you need four dozen pitchers a year, give or take a dozen…

But I think I would drop both, cutting $4 million from the $23.5 million, getting the Mets up to $242.5 million ($223MM plus $19.5MM). I think everyone else in that list of nine should get retained.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

Beyond the $242.5 million, which is less than $2 million from the first luxury tax level kicking in, Stearns and Cohen have to decide on where to take the 2026 payroll.   Start a youth movement in earnest, and you could probably keep it to $260MM to $280MM.  And, doing that, then bend it under the cap later on, perhaps as soon as 2027.

Yes, luxury taxes become increasingly onerous, but a whole-scale youth movement could take the 2026 playoffs off the table.  A buying spree would spike salaries and taxes, but could engender a deep playoff run, which brings in huge bucks - and glory - but could rapidly move the Mets towards every home date being Oldtimers’ Day.”  “Now batting, number 38….wait, no, that’s his age.”

Me? I think the Mets, out of sheer necessity, broke the ice with 3 newbie September starters - McLean, Tong, and Sproat - and that could have a huge hidden 2026 bonus for the Mets -  I believe the trio, now broken in, could inexpensively provide 450-500 Mets starter innings in 2026.  

If things go well with those 3 from the 2026 get-go, and with other dandies in the minors  like Santucci and Wenninger excelling in 2026 as I expect them to, in order for them to be ready for mid-season Mets call ups, some starter pitching veterans could be dealt carefully at the trade deadline to reduce team salary cash hemorrhage.

The by-mid-season-from-the-minors additions could also include pitchers Dylan Ross and Ryan Lambert, two future possible bullpen studs for years, and Jett Williams, Ryan Clifford, Carson Benge, Ryan Clifford, and Nick Morabito, if all are retained and some are not traded.

Then, once their youth movement is carefully assessed for realistic 2026 movement upwards, the external free agent market will fill in the blanks.

But me? As hungry as I am for a Mets World Series, I’d like to see an ongoing, concerted youth movement.  Even with the Soto/Nimmo/Lindor annual massive salary iceberg, a case could be made where Mets team salaries come back under the cap again, and stay there for years to come, with re-stocking from a currently-bulging minors.

ANY EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

Alvarez could be extended.  

Just make sure you buy the Alvarez Gold extended warranty.  

If Alvarez does get a pre-free agency multi-year deal, that could add upwards pressure on total team salary for 2026 and beyond, but eventually lead to significant annual salary savings. 

Much of the Mets strategy going forward has to involve frequent playoff appearances, preferably yearly.  

How best to get there, particularly for 2027 forward?  We will soon find out. 

Steve Cohen privately has to be very, very disappointed in what he thought would be a nearly perennial playoff-participating franchise.  If you as his team had made it 5 straight years, you might be more tolerant to rebuild on-the-fly in 2026, and see what happens.  

But the very spotty playoffs action since Cohen acquired the team may make him  extremely reluctant to not spend big again, in hopes of a deep 2026 playoff run.  He may thus attack the free agent market with fervor, and spend huge to try to make the playoffs more of a 90% likelihood in 2026.

We shall see, won’t we?

OK, I have given you the LEGO pieces to build with….now you, dear reader, must go ahead and BUILD, as if Steve Cohen himself ordered you to take the wheel of the Mets Franchise Cruise Liner and steer it to sweet playoff waters.  Watch out for the coral reefs.