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12/17/25

Reese Kaplan -- David Stearns Still Has a Lot of Work To Do


As the off season progresses the Mets fans are getting a bit antsy watching top tier players leave while strong but not equivalent hitters get added.  Nothing has been done about pitching other than Devin Williams who is theoretically the new Edwin Diaz.  Nothing has been done at first base, left field nor center field.

There are lots of way for things to happen moving forward.  Rumors were swirling that the Mets were making a very long term contract offer to Framber Valdez who is indeed a star pitcher but is it the best use of capital resources to hook yourself to someone who might be 38 or 39 by  the time to deal ends.  Witness the multiple injuries experienced by former Mets Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to see how well those nearing 40 starting pitchers fare.

The other hot rumor was Michael King.  Aside from the obvious former Yankee connection and the reliever turned starter change mirroring what current Met starter (and also former Yankee) Clay Holmes has done.  The issue here is not a doubt of the man’s ability.  His numbers have been outstanding.  The concern is durability.  He only appeared in 15 games in 2025 and his high water mark came the year before when he made 30 starts.  He has appeared in as many as 49 games as a reliever but given the Mets horror show with pitching injuries this past year it is curious to lock yourself into someone still recovering. 

Many people are working up lists of who will stay and who will go if they instead execute trades to fill the roster.  We’ve heard the Kodai Senga and David Peterson rumors as most definitely available which is somewhat odd given that they are working on a thin starting rotation as it is.  Still, you have to give to get and both of these players have very high or moderately solid reputations as major league hurlers with a modest price for a 3.00 career ERA pitcher like Senga and a very low price on the not yet free agent eligible lefty Peterson would indeed make them desirable. 

Then there are the other offensive players whose names come up again and again.  Jeff McNeil is surely on this list but crazy rumors leaked about Francisco Lindor and early Tarik Skubal trade packages included Francisco Alvarez. 

The toughest part is deciding who in the farm system is part of the Mets future and who is part of a trade arsenal to appeal to other ball clubs.  Obviously they’re not offering up Nolan McLean in any deals, but after that it gets murkier.  Jonah Tong is arguably the most interesting one on which they can make a deal or sit tight.  His minor league numbers would make other GMs drool despite his 7.00+ ERA in his September major league failed trial.  Brandon Sproat is perhaps analogous to former Met Craig Swan whose career ended with a 3.74 ERA.  The problem with Sproat is that he goes between stellar and merely average, never fully embracing either level of performance. 

On the offensive side Carson Benge is said to be off limits given his moderate power, base running speed and ability to man center field. Jett Williams is even faster and may have his top slot usurped with the double play combo in place and his AAA performance not quite up to a starting major league level.  Ryan Clifford has good power but he needs more time at AAA to improve his batting average lest he become another Lucas Duda. 

Lower level prospects are in play as well but likely don’t hold quite as high a value on the open market since they won’t impact the acquiring team in 2026  Still, there are a great many there to help sweeten prospective packages.

For now everyone is waiting for the other shoes to begin to drop.

11 comments:

  1. I agree - lots of work to do. Maybe the work has happened and we see its fruits this week. Like them or not.

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  2. we can only hope Clifford becomes Lucas Duda... He 's in AAA he is not dominating... usually a good sign of what's to come

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  3. The off-season is always a very anxious time. The strategy to acquire players is not always fulfilled because those players are often sought after by many other teams. Their personal decisions can make or break the strategy.

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  4. From Danny Abriano on SNY this morning, troubling information:
    “The Mets initially offered a three-year deal worth $66 million, with $21 million deferred over 10 years. Following negotiations between the two sides, the Mets amended the offer to add a $9 million signing bonus (which matched the one Diaz got from the Dodgers) and included $21 million deferred over 15 years instead of 10.
    The issue, per Castillo, was that Diaz wanted the average annual value of his deal to be at least $20 million and for the contract have less deferred money over a shorter time frame. The Mets "refused" to meet those asks, the Dodgers sweetened their offer, and that was that.”
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    Now, I have no problem moving on from Diaz, but this information makes me start thinking Stearns is obviously penny pinching and I wonder why.

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  5. Notice today how all of a sudden rumors are afloat about Mets being fully engaged on Bellinger (and Tucker). Notice all the rumors being floated about Mets and Padres. I have grounds I cannot reveal for thinking these are very credible rumors. I believe the Padres discussions all include Pivetta. There are three potential players from the Padres who are being discussed separately to complete their end of the deal: Laureano, Miller, one other reliever not named Miller. The Mets end of the deal of course will depend on who the other player is and what it will cost them. It will also depend on whether they land Bellinger (who is their preferred option between B and Tucker, for obvious reasons -- defensive versatility, years, price, and importantly, health). I have no idea what the priority is in terms o order, but it is obvious I would think that seeing whether they are able to secure Bellinger has a substantial impact on the content of the Padres package they would prefer; it would also impact which of their players they would be willing to move; and which they would want to hold on to for other potential trades. This is most of what I've got. The only other thing I have is that the interest in King is very real if they can land on a way to 4 years, not 5 (which would include higher AAV, and probably the 4th year involving some kind of option/buy out.).
    The key point here is not just that many options remain for them to dramatically improve the team in ways they are explicitly committed to, but also in ways that are consistent with mid and long range planning.
    Of course, there is no way of knowing whether these moves discussed here will pan out, but there are all sorts of quite sensible backup plans in place. It's always important but nearly impossible to distinguish the noise from the information. And with so many outlets, and the cost of sharing information so low, the pressure to do so, so high, you can't blame fans or anyone else for floating all manner of rumor and expressing all levels of emotion. We have a current public culture of disinformation designed to make one skeptical of all manner of epistemic authority -- which, by the way, is central to our ability to navigate the world and help us meet more pressing challenges that we face -- a culture I find deplorable. Fortunately, we have sports which is touched by its own share of both misinformation (good faith mistaken assertions) and disinformation (strategic, bad faith false assertions -- think Bill Belicheck's injury reporting as coach of Patriots), in which so much less is at stake in the grand scheme of things -- except in the off season :-)

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    1. Thank you for sharing Jules. I don’t know that I’m so hot on Pivetta and Laureano, both one year rentals. Sign King and keep your players. Trade for Miller. Take back Darvish to lower the return. As for Bellinger, I don’t trust him, and not sure about Tucker either, but the need for a real MLB outfielder is obvious.

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  6. and when it concerns the fate of our teams!

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  7. TexasGusCC: I believe Pivetta has 3 more years on his deal, but I could be mistaken. I believe it was a very low comp first year then 3 years at 20m; maybe he has an opt out. I am not wild about Laureano. Interesting idea about Darvish; keeping with general Stearns thinking. What I like most of all the ideas I've heard about is Tong for Soderberg (sp?). I like Bellinger more than you do. I don't like Tong as much as I believe you do. My objections to him are based on his mechanics about which I know a fair amount from my experience primarily as golfer and most recently (in my semi dotage) as a golf coach. I've discussed this before. He gets his over the top delivery primarily by lateral left side bend, which bends the spine in the wrong places; and side bend also makes rotation more difficult as rotation is easiest with level hips and straight spine, neither of which he has. And of course he also needs an east-west pitch to increase the zones and planes in which he can pitch. I wouldn't be heartsick if they didn't get Bellinger but did make the Tong trade. I do think they are still lacking a solution at 1B. If they choose to solve that with Okamoto, that would make some sense. They would fall short on the power front if they choose to solve it temporarily with O'Hearn. If they choose to solve it with Contreras, that would make sense but they would have to give up other players from the major league roster of baby mets and maybe some prospects as well.

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  8. To continue: I do like the idea of Contrares/Sodeberg combo, because after his two years, Contreras can move to DH as Polanco's contract runs out; and the door is open for Reimer/Clifford combo, etc. If they could get JoJo Romero with Contreras for combo of two of Acuna, Mauricio, Vientos and one of designated prospect listed from 10-20 in the farm and one in earlier stages of development, that would make sense to me. I am a believer in King who makes lots of sense.

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  9. From the world of AI: Nick Pivetta signed a four-year, $55 million contract with the San Diego Padres in February 2025. The deal includes a $3 million signing bonus and salaries of $1 million for 2025, $19 million for 2026, $14 million for 2027, and $18 million for 2028. The contract features player opt-out clauses in 2027 and 2028, along with a club option for 2029 in case of a specific injury.
    Total Value: $55 million over four years

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    1. Correct, he has an opt out after this year and after next year. I’m passing. Sign King.

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