Good Guy Matt den Dekker Fizzled - Like So Many Do
Sometimes, you see Mets prospects, guys who are on fire in the minors, and expect that they will translate that success over to the big leagues in terms of further real success.
Sometimes, those prospects even have a good stretch when they debut.
But then they fizzle and sometimes fizzle hard…
Two such former Mets prospects were fifth rounder Matt Dan Dekker, and eighth rounder Eric Campbell, both now 38 years old.
In 2014, Matt DD had a smoking stretch in Las Vegas.
In AAA, in 93 games, he scored 70 runs and hit .334/.407.540. Sizzled.
In the majors, he hit a decent .250, with a .345 OBP in 152 Mets at bats that year.
In 2016, he hit .296 in AAA, and in 99 Mets at bats, he hit a nice .253/.315/.485 with your NY Mets.
Then…he fizzled and cratered thereafter. Success was fleeting.
SOMETIMES BIG AAA BATTING STATS ARE MISLEADING
Eric the Red Campbell hit .314 in 120 Las Vegas AAA games in 2013.
Then, he came out in AAA like a surging laser in 2014. In 33 games there, he crushed it at .355/.442/.525. Wow.
Promoted to the Mets, he started hot, cooled off late, and hit .263/.322/.358 in 211 plate appearances. Nice year.
In 2015, in 33 games, smoked it at .363 in AAA.
But, with the Mets in 2015, he hit just .197 in 206 plate appearances.
And was never the same thereafter. They caught up to him.
A career .290 hitter in 979 minors games, and yet he too experienced only brief and fleeting MLB success.
Morale of that story?
Prospects may do well, and greatly entice your interest, and they may even do well enough to have brief success at the major league level.
But it is a very, very difficult game to play at the highest level. So it did not make sense to wear rose colored glasses as far as Matt or Eric were concerned.
How many of the current Mets hitting prospects will fall into the same category, or even fall short of the limited success at the major league level that these two gentlemen had, such as happened with former Mets first rounder Gavin Cecchini?
Food for thought.
My brother Steve?
In most cases, what does he say about those non-elite prospects?
TRADE THEM. FOR BONA FIDE PROVEN STUDS.
Don’t wait for their value to diminish. Many don’t pan out.
Think of SPINDLY, speedy Alex Ramirez, as an example.
As a 19 year old, he sizzled, but then he turned 20 and fizzled. At 19, he was an attractive trade chip. Then he dipped. Now he is just chipped.
Maybe Ronny Mo should have been traded years back?
Food for thought. You may still think he might sizzle.
Think back to when Amed Rosario was the top MLB prospect in all of baseball at one point. He has since had a somewhat decent career, with 10.2 career WAR, but probably could have fetched far more value for the Mets in a trade at the point of his #1 ranking than he has provided value as a major leaguer so far.
Jarred Kelenic? Thankfully, he was dealt early, Shirley.
He looked strong enough in his rookie ball debut in 2018, at .286/.371/.468, but either someone in the Mets FO saw flaws (his K rate was a bit high) and so included him in the trade deal that winter, or Seattle simply demanded him and the Mets acquiesced, but it sure worked out.
Kelenic had a simply brutal 2025 season in the Braves organization (AAA and MLB). Anyone out there saying, “what a mistake it was trading HIM!”
No. Didn’t think so.
His career MLB WAR is a comatose 0.2.
The Mets used him as a key piece in the 2018 off season to get FORMER MET fireballer and current traitor Edwin Diaz.
Sixth overall pick Kelenic?
He has been a real bust, according to baseball bust expert Mae West.
Don’t fear PROSPECT trades. Embrace them.
Get rid of flawed guys pre-bust.
Prospect players are…
Commodities. David's inventory.
So...figure out the future fizzlers now. Sell high. Book profits. Move on.
Last prospect point….no one who writes on our site ranks the Mets’ farm system vs. all 29 others in detail. Such a lot of work.
Some rambunctious Mets fans may feel the Mets system is #1.
Prospects 1500 (see link below), though, has the Mets system at #6.
#6? Very good, but…
Probably far inferior to the #1 Brewers talent. So….
Be excited to be #6 - but be objective, too.
Be ready to DEAL.
The future for us aging Mets multi-decade followers is right now.
https://www.prospects1500.com/milb/2025-end-of-season-farm-system-rankings-the-top-15/
MLB TRADE RUMORS NOTED THIS JUST HOURS AGO:
The Mets are informing teams that corner infielder/designated hitter Mark Vientos is available in trade conversations, writes Jorge Castillo of ESPN.
That aligns with reporting from Will Sammon of The Athletic, who wrote last night that the Mets were willing to discuss each of Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña.
- ME? I'M JUST WAITING FOR THE RUMORED BIG TRADE...
FINALLY...
On a personal note, it is my 43rd anniversary today with my terrific wife Susan. We both have A no-trade clause in our contract...'TIL DEATH DO YOU PART.
43 years is a long time, but that was only 4 years prior to the last Mets championship in 1986, which had its 39th anniversary this year. That is a mighty long time, too.
The Dodgers want to make that 139 years.
Can Cohen and Stearns disrupt that dynasty?
Trade ‘em!
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteI have no problems in trading prospects if they have been given the time to show what they can do. Mark Vientos is a year away from having a great year and even on a very bad one, he still hit 17 homers and 61rbi. That's 10 rbi's less on a year that he didn't hit for great average. I would keep him as the primary DH.
A lot of writers and fans keep talking about the great Luis Robert Jr and what has he done lately?. Yes, he is a great CF but so is Taylor and for the "potential" of more homers and slightly better range you would pay 20M for a couple of years and give up good prospects?.
How many times this past year did we see Mauricio starting to heat up only to be on the bench for a couple of days?. Ignored was the fact of the crazy power this kid has along with great tools.
You trade your blue chip prospects when you already have a great team that is only missing a key player. That's not the Mets right now.
Luis Robert gives me the willies.
DeleteI do think they can make a major trade and still have plenty of prospect talent left. I think a big trade, some bullpen shoring up, and an attitude adjustment may be the ticket to the playoffs in 2026 and beyond.
Swap prospects for prospects. Mets surplus prospects & young, developing MLB talent for other teams talent to “rebalance” the Mets talent portfolio & fill existing positional & skills gaps.
ReplyDeleteThat would make a great article - but there seems to be little buzz in that regard. Maybe it is any team's aversion to trading away the next Pete Crow Armstrong WAR-rior. although he wasn't prospect for prospect.
DeleteDefinitely agree Tom. It’s easy to prospect hug. The benefit of the new mets farm is how deep it is! Mclane is an MLB pitcher now so i dont count him but out of everyone else Benge and Tong are the only 2 that i would not trade.
ReplyDeletePast tucker and belli this year there just isnt a lot of talent in upcoming FA classes in the OF. I hope we get one of those 2 but even then, both because of his talent AND position I feel like benge is untouchable.
Tong… an insane year in the upper minors, if uneven at MLB. I just think with a little more polish he’ll be something truly special. I want to see him in orange and blue.
Past that make deals as long as they make sense!
Dan, glad you agree. We NEVER have prospect surplus like we do now.
DeleteI want extremely much to keep Tong. But Mason Miller would go a mighty long way towards solving their pen woes. And he’d be electrifying.
Hey Tom , Happy Anniversary
ReplyDeletewhere I disagree with you is 2 points... I was never opposed to trading Kelenic, I was opposed to the value... Kelenic was a top 20 prospect... No way you include him in a deal where you took back so much of Cano's salary and Diaz...
look at the smart trades... If i pay the salary you get a lesser prospect, i the other team picks up that salary you get the better prospect...
I will always view the Kelenic trade as miss appropriation of assets.
on my second point, is you trade prospects for elite talent. We trade PCA for Baez. under your premise that trade was a success... I say what the heck were they thinking...
Now i am a prospect hugger but i was also first in line to trade spraot and jett for crochet...
while i have never been a Lindor lover the trade made was fair...
where is that type of trade... i would rather blow away the a's with money and prospects for Nick Kurtz or KC for bobby witt...
those are the franchise altering trades I want to give up prospect for...
( i may have to get my writing quill over the holidays lol)
Thanks, Eddie.
DeleteI hated the Crow trade, for the record. They gave up too much.
On Kelenic, maybe they saw he was going to be the next Billy Beane. And Seattle saw gold, but it was really fool’s gold. It, however, would have been nice if they had eaten less salary.
Man, I would be stunned if Kurtz or Witt got traded now. That would take McLean and Benge and…
Mack sells quills - he got a supply from Ray. Ray wrote for decades with quills
Happy Anniversary and Congratulations! One thing about MDD and Eric Campbell was that they played in the absolutely worst place for gauging a hitter's profile, which was Las Vegas.
ReplyDeleteCirca 1995-1996, the Mets were bombarded with offers for Pulse, Izzy, and Wilson. Trading any one of them then would have probably triggered a major fan backlash. But a deal then would have made then-GM Joe McIlvaine look like a genius. Instead, he was fired.
Here's hoping that Steve Cohen's investments in the FO will prevent another Scott Kazmir or PCA fiasco.
Dan, thanks, and the sud to dude pitching trio of the mid 90s isa great example of how prospects can go belly up.
DeleteThat Kashmir trade was simply awful.
It is true that many prospects don't pan out, no matter how good they look against a less talented opposition. However, if you trade prospects for veterans, you end up carrying a very high team salary and still face the risk that the veterans acquired have unknown baggage. The minor league develop system is a vast gem mine - keeping it full increases the probability of finding a diamond in the rough. After all, Tom found one in Susan. Happy Anniversary!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Paul.
DeleteI am not saying trade them all. But I think we have enough to swing a season altering trade that will benefit the Mets beyond 2026, and still have a farm system with more talent than most Mets systems over the last 20 years. Danny Muno no doubt agrees.
Happy Anniversary 56 years for me but who's counting and all thoughts are on Mack today.
ReplyDeleteGary, you’ve had 56 years of sheer bliss. May Mack knock it out of the park today.
ReplyDeleteHappy Anniversary Tom. I have started believing that there is no such thing as a AAAA pitcher, just AAAA hitters. So, I’d be more apt to trade the hitters and hug the pitchers. I would very keep Tong, Sproat and McLean in the untouchable department.
ReplyDeleteGus, I totally agree - why? Off the top of my head, the Mets used 20 hitters and 46 pitchers in 2025, proving you can NEVER have enough pitching.
DeleteBut if we got Mason Miller, a pitcher, I'd certainly be OK with a pitcher (not McLean) going. There is NOTHING worse than a crappy bullpen. They rip the heart out of teams.
Here is another kid that shouldn't have been traded, Andres Gimenez. A couple of his early years were better than what Lindor was doing here for the base mlb salary. He is still a great player.
ReplyDeleteViper, had the Mets made the playoffs regularly, Lindor would look like a brilliant move. Since they haven't, Gimenez so much cheaper would have been better to have been instead retained
ReplyDeleteTwo things: one about trading prospects; the other about assessing trades. Trading prospects: What percentage reach the majors and last for more than 5 years having done so? What is the distribution of their performance levels measured against the average major leaguer at their position? What is the distribution and correlation, if any, between rating as a prospect and performance as a major leaguer for those who make it. What do the tails of those curves look like? I don't have information on these questions, but I am pretty sure teams do or should. Certainly the answers to these questions and others should inform the strategy one takes to trading prospects: inform it, not determine it, as there are lots of other factors -- many of which differ from team to team -- that go into planning how to value prospects.
ReplyDeleteAs to trades themselves. Like most things assessments of trades can be made from either an ex ante or ex post perspective (and are often made from both. Those making a trade can only assess what they are doing from an ex ante perspective --- that is, before the trade is made; Everyone else has the opportunity to assess both before and after (including long after and including factors that were unforeseeable in advance) the trade has been made. Both perspectives have merit, and their place, but remember that the decision makers can only adopt the ex ante perspective, though they can get to experience regret, disappointment as well as the occasional joy, from the ex post perspective -- like the rest of us.
When evaluating a move, I try to see it from the ex ante perspective, and try to imagine what information the decision maker has about the potential or likely future, recognizing the extent to which the universe tends to diverge from our plans for how it should go!
My wife and I are in the middle of our 54th year. Not the best contract she's ever signed. Me, lucky as can be.
ReplyDelete