Ryan Clifford, who played this week in the MLB futures game, had this reported about him in New York Post:
“With Syracuse this year, the 22-year-old has struck out 129 times in 86 games, a 36.4% strikeout rate that is higher than every qualified major league hitter. The dearth of contact has contributed to a .196 batting average.”
The article noted that he is still trying to work on things, and that he is still 22. The “22 year old” point is misleading, since he turns 23 next Monday.
Apparently, and his one futures game at bat, he walked on six pitches without swinging at once. I would’ve rather have seen him swing at a pitch, than show “plate discipline”.
He has really slipped in AAA in 2026.
Last year, he debuted there for 34 games and fanned “just” 35 times in 142 PAs (1 every 4.06 times up). In 2026, a much higher rate: a K every 2.75 PAs.
His K challenge is enormous, as can be seen in this comparison:
Mark Vientos this year has really turned off Mets fans with his poor OBP. And his Ks.
BUT…
Mark had fanned just 61 times in his first 254 PAs, a 24% K rate, which is not outstanding, but is a gaping 50% better than what Clifford is doing against much lower caliber AAA pitching.
Essentially, to be successful, Clifford needs to cut his AAA K rate from nearly 37% to 20% or less.
Because a 20% AAA K rate probably equates to a very high 30% MLB K rate.
Ewing and Benge in the minors in 2025 and 2026 fanned 0.81 times per game. In the majors, they sat recently at 0.93 per game, in likely slightly fewer plate appearances per game. So, almost 20% more Ks in the big leagues. And Morabito, in a very small MLB sample, fanned 9 of 11 times up, as compared to his 1.5 Ks per game in AAA. His AAA rate is higher because he bats in the top of the order and actually fans once every 4.3 times up.
Simply, Clifford would fan more against MLB pitching, potentially much more.
TWO SUGGESTIONS:
SWING MORE AGGRESSIVELY. AND CHOKE UP ON TWO STRIKES.
P.S.
COLIN HOUCK IN BROOKLYN?
His K rate? 40.4% THRU JULY 15.
FOUR TICKS WORSE THAN CLIFFORD.
If Houck was in AAA all season, would his K rate be 60%? Possibly.
His challenge is far more immense than Clifford’s. Extreme Ks.
Joe Sewell 100 years ago fanned just 3 times in more than a few seasons.
About that Hall of Famer, I saw this Sewell quote: “I hit the ball almost every time I swing at it. I could see a ball leave my bat.“
Pitching is much tougher these days.
But I guess Sewell might fan 4.04% of the time, not Houck’s 40.4%.
Houck has now been in Brooklyn (2025/26) for 130 games. How bad?
201 Ks, and .200/.269/.315. Much more of a suspect than a prospect.
Defense? Decent.
Offense? Indecent.
Felix Millán as a Met in 1974 fanned in just 2.7% of his plate appearances. JUST FOURTEEN TIMES in 585 PAs. Against major league pitching. Not South Atlantic League pitching.
And just 242 times in his entire career, spanning 6,325 PAs.
I wonder if any Mets prospects ever asked themselves, “is there anything I could learn from the strikeout starvation diet of ex-Mets star Felix Millan, a career .280 hitter who spent 12 years in the big leagues?”
My guess? Not a one.
If I were Clifford and Houck, I’d sure ask for Milan’s phone number.
Might get a few great tips.
YET ANOTHER DSL “GEM”
From the league where throwing strikes is strictly optional, one of the Mets squads lost 20-4 in a 7 inning, 3:50 game on Tuesday.
The two teams combined for 24 runs on 11 hits. How?
Non-hit baserunners galore.
Mets pitchers went just 6 innings, but walked 17. And hit some batters.
Mets hitters, facing relatively pinpoint control, walked just 7 times.
The game had 7 wild pitches.
The game also featured six errors and 3 balks.
Imagine if it went nine innings, instead of 7?
The over/under would have been one million baserunners.
BUT, GOOD NEWS!
I just saw a press release that starting tomorrow, DSL pitchers are permitted to pitch without blindfolds.
And pitchers will be allowed to use their normal pitching arm.
That might help slightly. Or maybe not. After all it is the DSL.
RISP BLUES
Mets entered last night 27th in hitting with RISP at .236. Minnesota leads at .286. Imagine if the Mets were hitting .286 with RISP.
MY APOLOGiES
I have not written about how great Zac Thornton truly is. He is GREAT.
18 straight scoreless innings for the Mets.
I apologize.
Well, apology or not, I did write this on May 17:
A BIG ZACH ATTACK
It is possible that Zach Thornton has leapfrogged over Jonah Tong.
In Thorton’s Friday night start, he threw six shut out innings in AAA, allowing just three hits in a walk, and fanning nine batters.
In the previous day’s game, Jonah was beaten unmercifully.
By the same opponent that Thornton whupped.
Tong? 1.2 IP, 7 runs, two homers allowed.
That says “LEAPFROG” to me.
And, oh yeah, I also did write this on March 16:
IS ZACH THORNTON FRANK VIOLA II?
On Sunday, Zach Thornton threw 60 pitches over 3 2/3 innings, fanned just one, but allowed just one run, in the first inning, with a helping hand in that he dropped a ball on the mound that got called a balk that moved the eventually scoring runner into scoring position.
He sure looked sharp to me.
I was scouting him from my easy chair in the living room.
He doesn’t throw quite as hard as some of the other fireballing prospects, perhaps, but I think he throws harder than Frank Viola, and he’s got good control and a fine mix of pitches.
So why not Frank Viola II?
Or maybe Jerry Koosman is your preferred comp?
In his 2 outings this spring, 6.2 IP, 6 hits, one run, one walk, 4 Ks.
How nice is that?
Let’s skip the niceties…
When do you think he will be ready for call up to the Big Show?
SO, ON SECOND THOUGHT…
I GUESS I REALLY DO NOT NEED TO APOLOGIZE.
THE KID IS GREAT - LET’S LEAVE IT AT THAT.
LASTLY…
Luis Robert a 112 MPH, 451 foot homer? Healthy. Tradeable.
And Jared Young’s 7th HR…hitting .251…not bad.
And the outfield defense (Ewing, Robert, Benge)? Awesome.
Clifford - IMO, he will never cut back his K/AB%. In fact it will get worse if he is promoted to the majors. The closest thing to a first baseman prospect in the chain is Randy Guzman and he's only playing rookie ball. Leave Clifford as your AAAA 25 home run hitter
ReplyDeleteHouck - I was a big fan of this guy. Tom isn't. He was right. Take this guy out back and dump him. He's filling up a roster slot another player could fill
"Thor" - not Viola. Johnny Podres. As in Koufax (McLean), Drysdale (Scott) and Podres (Thornton)
Good comps.
DeleteI do think Lorusso has a chance.