Over the last week, rumors have circulated that the Mets were engaged in trade talks with the Chicago Cubs about acquiring the former NL MVP, Third-Baseman Kris Bryant.
On February 11th, SNY's Andy Martino reported that "On January 6, [SNY] reported that any active talks between Mets and Cubs on Kris Bryant were no longer active. That was true at the time. TIL it has changed since. Unclear how likely it is to happen, but there is at least something there."
Sources close to our very own Mack confirmed Martino's reporting, indicated there was "serious smoke" going on between the Mets and Cubs; and that the parameters of the potential deal has "fluctuated from simple to complex."
After that flurry of activity spread across social media, Martino closed his reporting on the subject, indicating the trade talks had reached a stand-still. Apparently, the Cubs "don't appear overly motivated to move Bryant before Opening Day, who "would need to be convinced" to deal him.
These are the facts as of right now.
While the Cubs are signaling to fans that they need to be "convinced" to move their star third-baseman, It is my belief, reading the tea leaves and doing some quick analysis, that they are motivated sellers holding out to see if a better offer comes through. But if I were them, I wouldn't hold my breath.
While Kris Bryant has been a remarkable player during his career, and is still young, his trade value is not the same as name value. He had a bad year in 2020, batting .206 with an OPS of .644 and 40 strikeouts in 147 plate appearances. Beyond those standard outcome metrics, the underlying statistics that sabermatricians use to inform value also point toward a player who performed quite poorly in 2020.
Publicly available metrics such as exit velocity, hard hit%, sweet spot % indicate a player who wasn't hitting the ball well at all; and one of his best traits, his plate discipline, declined from 2019.
While some will argue that Bryant's performance was the result of being injured last season, and that may be true, that doesn't necessarily boost his value.
So lets talk briefly about value. Value is impacted not only by the the current talent of the player, addressed above, but other factors such as his teams current financial situation and chance for winning, as well as the alternative places they could find a market for Bryant.
As it stands today, there are no other suitors beyond the Mets for Bryant's services, all the ostensibly declared contenders have third baseman locked in (LAD, MIN, CHW) or aren't willing to take on a $20 million dollar risk that Bryant will return to form (WAS, NYY).
This leaves the Cubs in a precarious situation themselves, as Fangraphs projects them to finish 10 games under .500 in a very weak NL central, and after already signaling they were sellers all off-season by almost non-tendering Bryant, non-tendering Kyle Schwarber and trading Yu Darvish to the Padres, do they really think they are going to make Sandy Alderson believe that they are suddenly in it to win it?
Alderson, known for his patience, has the luxury to be patient. The Mets are already projected to win their division, are comfortable filling the position with a combination of J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, and Luis Guillorme. They also are probably the only team willing to take on Bryant's enormous salary with the risks attached to him.
So the Cubs have a decision to make; they can take the Mets offer, and I'm assuming the Mets have an offer on the table, or they can go into the season and hope he performs like Yoenis Cespedes did for the Tigers in 2015, when Dave Dombrowski with 14 minutes before the Trade Deadline got Sandy Alderson to blink.
Smart baseball men know that sometimes they can't win a trade, and its better to get something than nothing, and I expect the Cubs to reach that same conclusion too.
Prediction: Cubs will trade Bryant to Mets for Third Base Prospect Mark Vientos and Right Handed Pitching Prospect Tylor Megill.
Jeremy: A deal for Bryant like that would be reasonable from the Mets' standpoint. At least on the surface. I could see the Cubs wanting to do it, and seek a draft-driven rebuild.
ReplyDeleteIt would most likely be a one year Mets rental. You just wonder if Baty will be ready for 2022.
Bryant would be great if they come to their senses and do a DH.
If you bring Bryant in without a DH, getting people like JDD their at bats, without more trades, would be really tough.
Of course, if they score 6 runs per games, there will be a lot more at bats for everybody.
Bryant, if right, would give the Mets a truly scary offense.
Tom - I thought you'd freak out that Jeremy offered Tylor McGill in the trade...lol
ReplyDeleteNice piece, Jeremy.
ReplyDeleteI think one interesting part of this is that Jarred Banner - Former head of Mets Player Development is now a VP with the Cubs. Jarred would know all the under the radar prospects that Sandy and Zack Scott may not know about. It could make for a very interesting trade.
ReplyDeleteMegill being included in such a trade would be validation of his worth - I think he will be a viable power pen arm. So if he goes elsewhere and helps us win a World Series, that would be fine for me. If he stays and helps the 2021 bullpen this summer, I'd love to see that.
ReplyDeleteLook at Megill's numbers and Jake's minors #s. I expected major progress from Megill in 2020 until cancel culture killed the 2020 minor league season.
I think this is spot on value both ways but I am concerned that the mets would keep JDD in a deal that relegates him to the bench. I like JDD a lot, but he is a DH. I think a better match up with Cubs would be to package JDD with that package and send Hendricks over with Bryant. It would further fill out rotation depth with Lugo now a question mark and allow our sixth starter to flow into the pen as long relief/spot starter. Fair value for Cubs with controlled 3rd base and saves them about $31 Million this year which they desperately need. I'd even prefer another B type prospect and Jeurys Familia in the deal this way money is more fair, or we could decide to do that deal separately as many have already been saying. This way we stay under the luxury cap of which we have only about $26 Million to go.
ReplyDeleteSign me up for that deal. I agree wholeheartedly that they are trying to get assets but at end of day will just try and get out from underneath his money owed.
ReplyDeleteIf he does well this year we put a qualifying offer in on him and get a draft pick to compensate for what we lost. It’s only money
The price seems a little stiff with one of your higher draft prospects in Vientos going along with the big man Megill. There is almost zero probability that Bryant would resign here if he has a big year and the Mets wouldn't want him if he sucked.
ReplyDeleteFor that one year gamble it would cost $19.5 million and a few draft picks? Meh!
However, if you railed up the trade to include a capable starting pitcher like Hendrickson, then I'd be willing to cough up more in return.
Interesting idea, and I was on the Bryant bandwagon much of the offseason, but it does not solve the biggest remaining issue of outfield defense and actually creates another rather large issue of how to get Davis into the game.
ReplyDeleteI think Davis either has to play regularly or be traded for something of value to a team that will use him. He is not really a good bench piece, and would not get much play if there were a $20M third baseman ahead of him.
No to that trade. I don’t like getting swindled by people that know the players better than I do.
ReplyDeleteToo, this from MLBTR today, as it seems the Red Sox did the Mets a favor and why?
“ The Royals plan to utilize Benintendi near the top of the order, probably in the two-hole. The Royals have a noted need for on-base ability – Kansas City finished tied for 26th in the Majors with a .309 On-Base Percentage – and while Khalil Lee looked like a potential internal candidate to bring those skills to the table, the 26-year-old Benintendi is the more proven commodity. Even considering questions surrounding his recent performance and decline in foot speed, Benintendi has maintained an ability to get on base with a solidly above-average 10.5 percent career walk rate. If anything, Benintendi was over-patient in 2020 as his swing rate fell to 44.5 percent, though he also saw less strikes than ever with just a 44.1 percent zone rate in the extremely small sample season.
Regarding Lee, the Royals never spoke directly with the Mets about their speedy young outfield prospect. That leg of the deal was entirely cooked up by Boston, writes Ken Davidoff and Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Red Sox know Mets GM Zack Scott well considering his 16 years in the Boston organization, and they knew about his longstanding interest in Lee as a prospect. The Royals were aware of another team’s involvement, but didn’t hear about Lee’s ultimate destination until about 90 minutes before the deal was finalized.”