Reese Kaplan -- Yes, There Is Relief Available After Seth Lugo

Injuries are a part of baseball (and all sports, for that matter).  Just when you think you’ve put together the best possible roster to compete for the upcoming season, something happens to remind you that, as Robert Burns once put it in his famous poem, “To A Mouse”, “The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men Gang aft agley” (often anglicized to read, “The best laid plans of mice and men oft go astray.”)

I apologize for going all literary on you, but this well regarded phrase in poetry immediately came to mind when the news of Mets relief pitcher Seth Lugo’s surgical needs got revealed over the weekend.  Until that message hit the media, the fans and sportswriters were focused on the next “big thing” that was going to happen to improve the 2021 squad of competitive players. 

Now, all of the sudden, the Mets are facing the loss of one of their primary late inning pitchers and the team is suddenly unable to look at how nice it would be to deal away the salaries of Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances.  Instead, they must figure out who is going to handle those 6th, 7th and 8th inning duties often mastered by Seth Lugo.

Now many folks were crowing about the prospect of Justin Wilson once again rejoining the ballclub as an extra quality arm.  During 2019 and 2020 Wilson commanded a salary of $5 million per year with a record of 6-3 and a 2.91 ERA.  That indeed looks like high quality pitching which the Mets likely would have hoped to get at a slightly discounted level given his propensity to walk 4+ batters per 9 IP while striking out over 1 per IP.  He posted a value of exactly 1 WAR over his two Met seasons (which included some time off due to injury).  1 WAR is generally believed to be worth $8 million or thereabouts, so the $10 million he was paid for these two seasons was on the overpaid side of the ledger.

Now, it is Wilson who may be in the driver’s seat as the Mets are a bit more desperate for high quality pitching than they were a few days ago.  Gone is the idea of a reduced rate unless this late into the off-season it is all Wilson can command from anyone not named Brodie Van Wagenen. Yes, there are other quality free agents out there as well but they must all be salivating to take advantage of the Mets’ misfortune.  

It’s far from the first time the Mets were recommended to take a look at the comeback closer named Trevor Rosenthal.  He was twice a 45+ save per season reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals while pitching to full season ERAs of 3.20 and 2.10 respectively.  He had injury issues which certainly offset his career and earning power, but this past 60-game season he delivered a 1.90 ERA with 11 saves over 23 games while earning a modest $1.1 million which included a salary and a buyout of his contract.  He’s still untethered at this late juncture and likely will command less than the $5 million that Wilson will request for his services.

Pitcher Shane Greene is coming off two fine seasons in a row which included his first ever All Star appearance.  He earned over $6 million for the Braves last season and likely is looking for the same or better.  It could explain why he is still unsigned.

One interesting name from the past is Mark Melancon.  At one time he was a premier reliever during the period of 2014, 2015 and 2016 when he posted save totals that once exceeded 50 per season.  He was paid like that, too, commanding a $14 million paycheck.  After 2016 it was not nearly as good for Melancon, though he did post 11 saves during this past season while still earning that formidable paycheck.  He’s not likely to get nearly that much anymore but he’ll want to close and right now the Mets have Edwin Diaz doing that job for much less money and greater ability.  

One Mets reunion not yet mentioned was longtime reliever Tyler Clippard who helped the club achieve the World Series in 2015.  He’s still pitching at a high level, not looking to be a closer and earned a rather modest $2.75 million last year from the Twins.  For that he delivered a 2-1 record, a 2.77 ERA, a WHIP at a stunning 0.885 and maintained a 6.50 strikeout to walk ratio.  

In the same age and salary range is lefty Tony Watson who has a career 40-25 record with a 2.80 ERA and earned just $3 million from the San Francisco Giants.  During 2020 he was 1-0 over 21 games with a 0.889 WHIP and a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.  That’s less than you would pay Justin Wilson for better performance.  

The end result of this baseball mental meandering is that all is not lost with the surgery of Seth Lugo.  The question is whether or not Zack Scott is up to the task.