Pages

2/10/21

Reese Kaplan -- Luis Rojas Has Got No Rookie Free Pass in 2021


 As the team enters Spring Training 2021 it would appear that they are at something of an advantage over the 2020 edition.  No, I’m not talking about the pandemic.  That’s still a national problem.  

No, I’m not talking about Steve Cohen’s money.  That’s been spent fairly liberally already though the haters will point out that the acquisition of Francisco Lindor is really using the $20 million of unpaid salary to PED abuser Robinson Cano. 

The big advantage for the Mets this season is that last year’s 11th hour rookie manager Luis Rojas is not scrambling to learn his first big league managerial job.  The 2020 season, such as it was, provided Rojas with an introduction to what it’s like to create lineups every day, what it’s like to rotate players in and out based upon the need for rest or as a testament to poor performance, and what it’s like to include an extra bat in the form of an experimental DH. 

Going into 2021 there should be no excuses for Rojas being a newcomer.  Some of the malcontents are gone.  Some of the poorer performers are gone.  Some players left in quest of a free agent contract elsewhere.  There are a ton of new faces and Spring Training is necessary to see who is ready, who is not and who has distinct productivity limitation that warrant a necessary but non-regular role as part of the starting lineup. 



Right now the main focus for Rojas will be learning who will or will not be in that lineup.  After all, without a DH how do you squeeze bats like Dom Smith, Pete Alonso, J.D.Davis and Brandon Nimmo into the lineup at the same time?  Yes, the defense last season was mediocre on the best days, but you can’t go all-offense in the hopes that some type of Gold Glove miracle occurs.  

There is a reason Davis cost so little, Smith was a number one draft pick, Nimmo was a number one draft pick and Pete Alonso was a number two behind dual number ones – Mariner Justin Dunn and Blue Jay Anthony Kay. 

The other major issue is figuring out pitching.  Last year’s hurlers were for the most part highly forgettable.  Yes, Jacob deGrom was his usual stellar self.  DavidPeterson turned in a highly credible emergency rookie campaign.  Edwin Diaz redeemed himself after one or two bad appearances right at the beginning to deliver stats among the best in the league for guys closing games.  The rest of the pitching was enough to ruin your appetite.

Starters in 2020 included Walker Lockett, Seth Lugo, Corey Oswalt, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and probably a few others who are better remembered by forgetting them.  We don’t count Marcus Stroman who opted out nor Noah Syndergaard who was injured and recovering from surgery. 


The bullpen wasn’t any better.
  After you cruised past Diaz you saw faces like Dellin Betances, Brad Brach, Miguel Castro, Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman, Jared Hughes, Ariel Jurado, Franklyn Kilome, Erasmo Ramirez, Paul Sewald, Chasen Shreve, Hunter Strickland and Justin Wilson.  Then there were the odd games handled by Seth Lugo when he wasn’t imploding in the starting rotation.  Fortunately for the Mets many of these arms are no longer part of the equation for 2021, but Rojas has to be watching very closely along with Jeremy Hefner to decide who actually has the stuff to retire major league hitters. 

This off season the Mets acquired some role players who may or may not be a good fit, including Jose Martinez who can swing a bat but isn’t too capable in the field, and Albert Almora, Jr. who is the opposite – brilliant in the field but whose hitting is highly suspect.  

Right now it’s possible folks like Jose Peraza and Guillermo Heredia are projected to be part of the bench, but neither seems much good for other than an emergency appearance.  There surely is room to improve the roster on the bench and it’s entirely possible some Non Roster Invitees or folks who have options remaining may wind up in Syracuse.

With the continued interest of free agent Jackie Bradley, Jr., it’s entirely possible that the Mets are considering the value of defense after what they saw last season.  The issue with JBJ is he is an erratic left-handed bat.  Right now the club needs to find spaces for Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dom Smith and other left handed bats.  

That surplus suggests they need to look instead for someone who hits from the right side to complement Pete Alonso and newly acquired switch hitter Francisco Lindor. 



It would seem to make more sense to try to acquire someone like Lorenzo Cain who would be in the game for just two more years and bats right handed.  A deal of that nature could be offset by pushing some existing salary to the Brewers who are on the hook for $35 million in salary for the next two years.  

If they took on Familia and Betances then they are only obligated for half that much and the Mets will have lowered the overall spend on CF down to an average of $8.5 million per season. 

Well, there’s still plenty of time to settle the roster.  I’m just anxious to begin seeing games once again. 

8 comments:

  1. My brother every year would say to me, after the Mets made a few off-season moves, "there are still a lot of holes...now, watch the Wilpons stop making moves." And he was right. Not this off season, though.

    Thank heavens for Robinson Cano. His transgression makes it likely that Steve Cohen can stay within the cap this year, and avoid luxury tax this year and the escalating luxury tax rate next year (2022), when this team might blow the cap big time.

    I think Cohen would have blown thru the cap this year had Cano and his salary not taken a 2021 hiatus. As a result of Cano, it has allowed the Mets to significantly improve, restructure, and deepen the roster without crashing the cap.

    A 2021 team that has a full year of quality pitchers like Carrasco and Stroman and ¾ of a season from a Syndergaard is a vastly improved team even before anything else is considered.

    And the fact that we are signing REAL major league talent for what appears to be the entire 25 roster, with better talent (so far, anyway) to tap into in AAA without a severe dip in capability if they have to call them up is great. What killed this team as much as anything the last 3 years is the dreadful overall performance of so many call-ups that were used far too much, and the signing of retreads, hoping they could recapture the magic.
    Sure, an Almora might fall into the latter category, but why couldn’t he, at 26, bounce back solidly?

    2021 should be very exciting with management that realized that All Roster Spots Matter.

    So, again, we are thankful that after all the moves, they AREN'T done, and are planning to do something about it.

    ReplyDelete
  2. For the bench, Sandy signed three players who hit under .200 last season but had success in the past. You can also lump Peraza in with this group.

    It's the new Moneyball.

    Jimmy

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nice post. I agree on Rojas. He won't get the pass on being handed a poor roster this season.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Cain was brought up months ago and is still a Brewer. If the Brewers are going hard after Turner after signing Kolten Wong, what makes anyone think they will give away Cain and take your headaches off your hands to save money?

    TexasGusCC

    ReplyDelete
  5. They are miffed at him sitting out 2020 and don't like that they still owe him for two more seasons at age 35 and 36.

    ReplyDelete
  6. That Cain scenario, like the Cano one, is a problem due to the cap. All thse players should be paid the most for the earlier years, declining into the player's oldest years when they are likely to produce less.

    If a guy signs a 5 year $100 million contract at age 32, the real value is likely $30 in year 1, $25 in year 2, $20 in year 3, $15 in year 4, and $10 in year 5.

    They'd be less miffed at Cain if the contract conformed to age reality.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I saw the Cain thing as pure speculation on someone's part that maybe the Brewers were interested in clearing payroll.

    The Metropolitan blog has a great, informed, balanced piece on Villar, "Cue the Keith Hernandez Groans." It links to a clip of Villar with Keith saying, "I have NO IDEA what Villar is thinking."

    I remember that game!

    The other stat that came out was that Villar led the MAJORS in whiffs on Ball 4 pitches in 2020.

    He's that kind of player.

    But talented. I'm getting a Jordany Valdespin vibe. Now he's ours.

    Jimmy

    ReplyDelete
  8. If that's the case about Villar I hope he remembers to wear a cup.

    ReplyDelete