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| Despite rumors that Troy Tulowitzki wants to play for a winner (read: not Colorado), he isn't going anywhere. |
The last two op-eds I have written regarding the likelihood, advantage, and rationality for trading or avoiding Starlin Castro and future teammate Javier Baez have arrived at their conclusions from assessing the value (or future value) of those players relative to their cost. I have examined what they bring to a team and if it is worth spending the prospects to attain. Most of my analysis has come from advanced scouting reports and an understanding of sabermetrics.
Let me change gears for a second and say the following:
Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best players in baseball.
Troy Tulowitzki is worth the prospects required to get him.
Troy Tulowitzki is worth the exorbitant amount of money owed to him through 2020.
Troy Tulowitzki is worth the above investment despite his injury history.
Troy Tulowitzki is not going to be traded by the Colorado Rockies.
I am not going to try to say that he is not worth what it would take to get him. This is a difference-maker in every sense of the word and you would be crazy not to try to get him, even at a huge cost. I find it extremely unlikely he plays anywhere except the mountains of the Western U.S. for the next half of a decade.
Now that this is out of the way, let's figure out what it would take to get him. Just for fun. I am doing this piece mostly because it would be glaring not to include him as a shortstoption.
Trading Troy Tulowitzki would be the Mets equivalent of trading David Wright. You built the franchise around this guy, he's the face of the team, the de facto captain, and is owed a ton of money over a lot of years. You also want to contend soon and he is far and away your best player.
So, unless you adhere to the idea that the Mets would trade Wright, don't think you can get Tulo.
That being said, I'm going to play mock GM and propose a trade to which Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd would say yes. You can decide whether or not you would pull the trigger. I've heard enough of the "Jon Niese, Dice-K, Campbell, and Tejada for Tulo!" nonsense that needs to end.
Any deal for SS Troy Tulowitzki will start with your two best players under 25 and two more prospects minimum.
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For a team like the Reds, that would be Billy Hamilton, Robert Stephenson, Jesse Winker, and Nick Travieso. You get the idea--it would take a ton.
The next piece will be Noah Syndergaard. The Mets, as they should, will try to offer Rafael Montero or Jake deGrom, but the Rockies demand Syndergaard or the deal is off.
After that, the Rockies will look at a couple bats. One should be a good, near-ready hitter who could move into the lineup soon and the other more of a lower level guy or "B" prospect with some question marks. Brandon Nimmo and Cesar Puello's names get added to the trade.
Full trade:
Rockies send SS Troy Tulowitzki to the New York Mets.
Mets send RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Noah Syndergaard, OF Brandon Nimmo, and OF Cesar Puello to the Colorado Rockies.
That is a trade I would make if I am Dan O'Dowd. The Rockies would get two front-of-the-rotation starters to go along with Gray, Butler, and Freeland. Nimmo becomes a patient potential leadoff guy for the Rockies within a year or two and it gives them the freedom to move Dexter Fowler or CarGo for additional pieces if desired. Puello is a nice lottery ticket who could hit 30 homers in the thin air in Colorado.
The Mets get their franchise shortstop and have the best left side of the infield in baseball.
The Rockies get a rotation that, by 2016, could look like this:
Jon Gray
Zack Wheeler
Eddie Butler
Noah Syndergaard
Kyle Freeland
And still have enough pieces in the batting order to build around.
The Mets still have:
Bartolo Colon
Jon Niese
Dillon Gee
Jake deGrom
Rafael Montero
(and Harvey in a year)
and a lineup of:
1.) Curtis Granderson
2.) Daniel Murphy
3.) David Wright
4.) Troy Tulowitzki
5.) Lucas Duda
6.) Travis d'Arnaud
7.) Juan Lagares
8.) Chris Young/Eric Young Jr./LF
Instead of Nimmo, O'Dowd could ask for Matz and instead of Puello, he could ask for Dominic Smith or Wilmer Flores but the idea is that it will take Wheeler, along with our top prospect (Syndergaard) and two top-10 or fringe top-10 prospects to get Tulowitzki to Flushing.
Is that the sort of deal you want to make? Answer in the comments below or Tweet them at me (Stephen Guilbert @StephenJosiah13).
To recap:
1.) Starlin Castro is not worth trading for.
2.) Javier Baez is, but not for the shortstop position.
3.) Troy Tulowitzki isn't going anywhere.
0 for 3.
We'll look at 2015 free agent options tomorrow.
--SG
Would I make this deal?
ReplyDeleteSure... what the hell... we will never be a contender unless we can send up 3 potential all-star bats to the plate every nine hitters.
I'm sort of getting sick and tired of discussing the merits of what this team currently is
Three of the players you mentioned have done nothing yet and the other has been underwhelming.
Let's do it
I would toss the dice on such a trade too. My brother Steve would simply say, "Make the trade and New York is ours, and not the Yanks', for years to come.". Attendance shoots up, revenues shoot up, more $ to spend, plenty of other quality pitchers in the Met pipeline.
ReplyDeleteThere's one other thing, Thomas, to consider that we never discuss here because we're talking about the Mets...
ReplyDeletefree agent pitchers would tell their agents to contact that team that has a pitcher friendly field, a decent rotation, and Wright, Tulo and Murphy in the lineup
I'd make that trade because with prospects you never know. Even Wheeler who is already a young veteran is inconsistent and could flourish or founder in the home heaven of Coors Field. You need to give to get and this trade most certainly delivers on both sides. If you did manage to keep Flores then I wouldn't stop there and look to move Murphy to help pay for Tulo's contract and possibly upgrade the RBI production out of the 2nd base position simultaneously. Get us a left fielder and you're onto something.
ReplyDeleteTulo could very well request a trade. In that case the Rox don't have to deal him but very easily could decide it's better to maximize his value in trade rather than having an unhappy player moping around and bad mouthing the organization in the media.
ReplyDeleteand Reese would throw in TC...
ReplyDelete"That said, I’m sure Alderson will put feelers out to understand Stanton’s value, as I expect he’ll do with Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki, who – like Stanton – is unlikely to get moved now, but almost certainly will be talked about again this winter. I still think Tulowitzki is Alderson’s White Whale and I’ve heard from friends in Colorado that Jon Niese, Travis d’Arnaud and a top pitching prospect can get it done."
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned in another post, that sounds like an awful lot less than what's being proposed here. It's a opportunity to get Tulo without gutting our future rotation.
Substitute Gee for Niese, Plawecki for d'Arnaud, toss in Montero, deGrom, Flores, and whatever prospect returned for Colon and overwhelm Colorado while keeping Wheeler and Thor.
I think all of us are starting to realize that, at worst, the Mets are developing a great 6th hitter in C Travis d'Arnaud. Expect Michael Conforto to be fast paced... most who have scouted him (like Keith Law) say he's just about MLB ready...
ReplyDeleteImagine: Granderson, Murphy, Wright, Tulo, Duda, d'Arnaud...
You put Tulo in the middle of that lineup and it's complete, solid top to bottom. D'Arnaud is a great 6th hitter and he can be followed by Conforto soon enough and then Lagares.
Deletethe other risk of this deal is health; Tulo has had some issues in the past with this, but any one player could end up missing the entire season with injury. chances of all 4 proposed trade chips ending up iced for the year is practically non-existent. definitely increases vulnerability when you trade 4 for 1; all other things being equal, the talent swap is fair, but huge exposure to injury risk when you are only getting one player back, especially one who has had injury issues in the past.
ReplyDeletedoesn't really matter because I think the author is correct, Tulo is not going anywhere because of lost ticket sales
I'll have to be the naysayer here. I'd love Tulo, let me make that clear, and he is certainly a stud at a premium position, but his splits and injury record make him a little more of a risk than a Stanton. If I thin out the farm for one player, and a superstar that is available, it would be Stanton. Then I'll find a SS that can pick it with the best of them, move Grandy to LF, and be ready to roll.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I'd be too timid to move all that talent for Tulo. His age and the ballpark splits move the dial for me. Plus, I think the Mets should build the team to suit the ballpark - ie, pitching a defense.
DeleteAgain, I think Elvis Andrus would be the right guy on whom to take a risk. He's not Tulo but the cost in prospects would be substantially less. Though might also be unavailable.
ewww on Andrus contract. boy, I tell you the Rangers have some real dog contracts: Fielder, Rios, Choo, and Andrus. there was an article recently saying that since they emerged from Hicks financial disaster, they have piled on way unsustainable debt and if ML held them to rules, they would have to dump contract, so you might be able to get Andrus for practically nothing
DeleteMack you have it wrong, you say Reese would throw TC in - he'd throw TC out first!
ReplyDeleteAcquiring Tulo would be like hitting the lottery. The increase in stadium attendance, and in turn profits, would pay Murphy's contract. Acquiring Tulo for prospects, who are still highly regarded, but PROSPECTS nonetheless. The Rockies would be hesitant to deal him off. As they should. As we would be (or were) with Wright. But a return of Wheeler, Thor, Nimmo & Herrara/Puello/Flores/Dom Smith would be pretty hard to not seriously consider. Best case you have #1 and #1A starters, plus two future above average major league bats, if not all stars. Worst case you have 2 arms that just cannot flourish in the thin air, plus prospects who are further away that may fizzle.
ReplyDeleteThat future Rockies rotation is borderline lethal. They could always flip one of those pitchers for a big bat in a year or 2.
It's funny, I guess, but I wouldn't do the trade from the Rockies perspective either. Who knows how pitching in Denver will impact Thor and/or Wheeler. Thor seems to be seriously struggling in Vegas against minor league lineups. Nimmo would be a fantastic get in this trade but I'm not sure Dom has established enough value as a pro (zero HRs is a bit scary for a 1B-only prospect, though he's extremely young and has exhibited and excellent hit tool).
DeleteIf I'm the Rockies and had to trade Tulo then I want the primary piece to be a major league ready bat.
I agree with this. I think Plawecki and Flores would have to be in the deal.
DeleteIts a fair trade. i couldnt pull the trigger on it tho. for this trade to be fair you kind of have to feel devastated about what you gave up to get him.
ReplyDeleteBut i also dont think that tulo ever goes anywhere. From a business perspective its very hard to build face of the franchise stuff around pitching ask the Mariners. Think about how annoyed people get if d. wright gets a day off at home.
I cant think of a player of Tulo's caliber with a long term contract that has ever been traded. in three years if they still cant build a winner maybe but not at age 30 season.
also everyone in the the rockies marketing dept kills themselves if you did this trade.
I'm sure there are plenty if marketers looking for work.
DeleteVery happy to see the great discussion on here. I think a lot of you hit on a good point--Tulo's splits are not otherworldly away from Coors. That being said, he's still the best shortstop in the game even away from Coors. And while the injuries do concern me, I worry far far less about someone like him than I do Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes.
ReplyDeleteI also disagree that Niese, d'Arnaud, and Thor would be less than the trade proposed above. I'm also very high on TdA and I just don't think you can trade away your only lefty. Having an all-righty rotation that will also be short a Syndergaard in a year is asking for trouble. Only team I know that did that successfully in recent memory for more than half a season or so is the Tigers after the Fister trade but before Smyly. Even then they found a lefty. I wanna say the championship '06 Cards did it too but they were a team based around hitting.
Just my .02. Great discussion, everyone.
You gotta be kidding me. All that for a guy with an exorbitant contract for the next 7 years? Not a shot in hell. I would probably trade Syndy straight up. Maybe add Montero. Maybe. I wouldn't trade Wheeler or deGrom straight up for him. Both might be top the rotation starters and will have very low salaries for years. Wheeler and Syndy TOGETHER???? Dream on. I would never back that trade at this point.
ReplyDeleteI would give them Wright and Grandelson and Gee.I put Flores at third Den Dekker in right and Comforto in left.We keep Thor and Wheeeler no way I want them going anywhere but Citifield,our strength is pitching and we should keep that at all cost.Harvey,Wheeler,Thor,DeGrom is our future we still have Niece for a piece to move because we have Monterro and Matz ready soon too.
ReplyDelete