Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions: Get Over Starlin Castro"

Recently, Mets fans have been clamoring for Starlin Castro.

They have no idea why that is a terrible idea. Read the rest of this article and you will.

After Billy Beane traded SS prospect Addison Russell to the Cubs, some writers suggested the Mets and Cubs should become trade partners. The Cubs need pitching in their system and have a glut of infielders. The Mets have below average offensive production at shortstop and have pitching.

It makes perfect sense, right?

No. It doesn't. It really doesn't.

Matt Cerrone picked up the rumor and posted it on MetsBlog. Ever since, all I have heard from Mets fans is "We need to trade for Castro." "Wheeler for Castro. Get it done, Sandy!" "Enough with the bum Tejada. I'd give up Thor for Starlin Castro. Syndergaard isn't proven. Castro is." (real quotations)

However, Starlin Castro plays, at best, an average shortstop.

Last year was abysmal for Castro. This year has been much better offensively, albeit with quite a bit of luck on batted balls, especially when it comes to homers. Let's look, rather, at 2012-present as an indication of what kind of player he really is by total value:

18th in the MLB over the past 400+ or so games. In my view, this is meddling production. It's also inconsistent on both sides of the ball:

A few things to look at here:

- His defense is steadily getting worse. His arm is still strong, but his range (UZR, the main component to Fangraphs' defensive metric), is getting worse by the season. That is not a good sign for a 24-year-old and indicates that a move off of shortstop might be in his immediate future.

- Castro went from a good offensive season to a mediocre one to a terrible one to a pretty strong one so far this year. Overall for his career, he is 4% below average, offensively. He has positive overall value from his defensive ability and speed--both of which are declining.

- Castro is not stealing as much and is becoming league average as a base runner, perhaps even a tick below average.

- Castro's HR/FB ratio is high. That helps explain the 11 homers through 94 games. This boosts his offensive value which is supporting his overall status as a good shortstop. Do not be fooled, though.

More on Castro's homers:

This chart, courtesy of ESPN's Home Run Tracker, illustrates the landing spot of homers off the bat of Castro. I have chosen to overlay Citi Field to see how his home runs would stack up here. The image is a bit deceiving, as it looks like all of his homers would be homers in Citi and that is not the case. The chart shows where the balls would land (at field level) if not obstructed--not where they actually landed. If he hits purely moon shots of Mo Vaughn proportions, most would go out.

However, some of his home runs, including one hit in Wrigley, one in Milwaukee, and one in Philadelphia would be home runs in few stadiums. Castro also typically hits line drive home runs. The balls hit to left and left center would most likely find gloves or bounce off walls as doubles in Citi Field. By my estimation in conjunction with the data on HRT, three of his eleven home runs would not be homers in Citi Field. If eight homers is what it takes to earn the affection of Mets fans, why aren't more people on the Chris Young bandwagon? If such a thing exists, that is.

Furthermore, there are countless stories about his work ethic, his attentiveness, and defensive ability as he reaches the twilight of his career his mid-20s.

Starlin Castro will earn 43 million dollars minimum over the next five years.

Starlin Castro will cost the Mets either Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler, at minimum.

Bottom line: Stop trying to make Starlin Castro happen. It's not going to happen.