Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions: Javier Baez is not a Shortstop"

Now that we have established that Starlin Castro does not fit well with the Mets nor should be bartered to attain, the natural next question would be, "What about their other infielders"? Javier Baez gets the most attention as Kris Bryant is a third baseman, many think Addison Russell will have to move off short, and Baez has the power the Mets covet.

I would not mind adding Baez to the system but he comes with an asterisk: He, like Russell, is probably not a shortstop. While Baez possesses a strong arm, his range is less than average and he is a bit clunky and awkward in the field. He makes a ton of throwing errors as well but the arm is strong so I think those will reduce over time. He really is like Wilmer Flores. Except a much better hitter. Much better.

The best position for Javier Baez is third but he would be serviceable at second. He would cost a similar package to Starlin Castro but is younger, cheaper, and significantly more talented at the plate. There is an outside chance that Baez would be serviceable at short for a few years but I have a problem with that and it is the same problem I have with Wilmer Flores or Nick Franklin at shortstop.

The Mets have a very talented starting pitching core. They built this team around it. A lot of these guys, like Jake deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, and Noah Syndergaard get a lot of ground ball outs. Some are extreme ground ball pitchers. If you build a team around a lot of guys who induce contact on the ground, don't you want the best defensive infielders you can find? Daniel Murphy is already a defensive liability at second, adding one at short as well is a death sentence for a pitching staff you invested so much to attain and groom.

I also often open that this is why I think the Mets should look much more closely at Chris Owings or Francisco Lindor and forget player like Flores, Baez, and Franklin as shortstops. Regardless, let's take a look and see if the defensive inefficiencies would be moot:

Javier Baez
Age: 21
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 190 lbs.
2012 stats: .294/.346/.543/.888 with 16 homers, 46 RBI, 50 runs, and 24 stolen bases. 14 walks vs. 69 strikeouts.
2013 stats: .282/.341/.578/.923 with 37 homers, 111 RBI, 98 runs, and 20 steals. 40 walks vs. 147 strikeouts.
2014 stats: .246/.307/.470.777 with 16 homers, 59 RBI, 50 runs, and 15 steals. 28 walks vs. 111 strikeouts in 321 at bats.

Not tough to figure out that this is a free-swinging masher who does not like to walk, strikes out a ton, and hits the ball a long way a lot of times. This is a typical middle-order run producer but the low walk/OBP does not fit the Mets ideology of hitting. Still, this is a young player and pitchers will walk him a lot more when he starts hitting 400-ft. home runs in the big leagues.

Some recent scouting reports on Baez:

John Sickels: Otherworldly bat speed and an aggressive approach plus the tools to (maybe) stay at shortstop if he can get the errors down. If not, he'd slot great at third base. There's some risk here due to contact but I think he can be a Giancarlo Stanton-type hitter. The commonly-used Gary Sheffied comp works in terms of bat speed, but Sheffield had a much more refined approach and I don't think Baez will hit for a Sheffield-like average. That doesn't mean he can't be a star.

MLB.com: Baez has lived up to his lofty expectations since the Cubs selected him eighth overall in 2011. He reached Double-A Tennessee two years later as a 20-year-old, and his 75 extra-base hits and
111 RBI led the Major Leagues.

Baez generates incredible bat speed, resulting in big power. He also has the ability to hit for average if he is able to develop more plate discipline. But Baez is a good bad-ball hitter and often finds a way to get his bat on the ball in spite of his aggressiveness.

Baez isn't as advances defensively. His average speed begets his solid range, and he has a good arm, but he still commits too many errors. Some scouts feel Baez is destined for a move to third or second base, which would be eased by Starlin Castro's presence in Chicago. No matter where he plays, Baez's bat has the ability to make him a star.

Baseball America: Slow down--not his bat, the minors' fastest--but the rest of his game, especially at shortstop. Otherwise, Baez's task will be learning to play another position.

Baseball Prospectus: Has left jaws on the floor and baseballs in critical condition thanks to an electric swing that is as powerful as it is unique. The identifying feature of his swing is a whip of the bat forward during his stride. That inspires many comparisons to fellow bat-waggler Gary Sheffield. On the surface the comparison makes sense as both have a pronounced trigger leading up to elite bat speed. Reality paints a different picture.

Sheffield whips his bat forward using a combination of his forearms and wrists. Watch the angle of his wrists as the bat moves. Sheffield is also wiggling hit bat up until his front foot hits the ground. In the immortal words of musical geniuses LMFAO, Sheffield's bat goes something like wiggle wiggle wiggle yeah (contact).

----------

The experts seem to agree: This is not a contact hitter. This is not a strong defender. This is one of the best young power bats in baseball.

Should the Mets trade for him? Yes. If you can get the right deal, absolutely. But don't think of this guy as your shortstop of the future. He's not a shortstop.


Fun fact about Baez: He has the MLB logo tattooed on the back of his neck.