Reese Kaplan -- Handicapping the Pen

Earlier this week we looked at the bench possibilities for the Mets in 2019.  Now it’s time to turn our attention to the bullpen.  On the bright side, there should be a markedly better performance overall than the firestarters most of the relievers were during last season. 

PC - Ed Delany

Some of the positions are carved in stone.  There’s newcomer Edwin Diaz, he of the 57 saves and the sub 2.00 ERA last season.  Then there’s the more expensive former closer, Jeurys Familia, brought back on a moderate contract.  Behind him you have Seth Lugo who truly flourished out of the pen (though was almost Vargas-like as a starter).  Then there’s Jerry Blevins Lite – Justin Wilson, the sole lefty guaranteed to come north with the team.  That’s four fairly solid relievers that should render innings 7-9 a lot less gray hair inducing than what was there last year.

The next name that everyone thinks should be written in ink is Robert Gsellman.  His wild inconsistency was nerve-wracking to say the least.  There were times he appeared to be throwing effortlessly and retiring batters with aplomb.  He even served as the closer for a stretch. 

However, after debuting with an impressive 2016 campaign with a 2.42 ERA over 8 games (7 starts), he was primarily a starter once again with 22 assignments out of 25 appearances in 2017.  The results were ugly.  The record was positive at 8-7 but it was with a horrific 5.19 ERA pretty much sums up his year.  With a WHIP north of 1.50, he was allowing way too many baserunners. 

Last year they used him instead exclusively out of the pen.  It got somewhat better.  The ERA dropped by nearly a full run.  The WHIP improved, but he was still far too unpredictable.  Don’t let the 6-3 record fool you as some of those Ws were vultured victories.  He appeared in 68 games, finishing 24 of them and recording 13 saves.  The numbers were not as good as what the top four hurlers did, but they’re not quite so awful as to say he’s fighting for his pitching life. 

Behind these five you have quite a few folks hoping to come north but none are guaranteed to do so.  There are the familiar faces like winless Paul Sewald.  He’s a bit more adept at striking people out and he averages about a hit per IP.  He’s had some control issues but 3.3 walks per 9 IP is not terrible.  Frankly he’s been unlucky, too, but an ERA north of 6.00 will not secure your spot on the roster.

Rule V draft pick Kyle Dowdy is going to get a long, hard look in the Spring.  His minor league numbers are fairly meh with a 3.99 ERA, a .500 record but good control.  His issue is being too hittable.  The Mets would have to keep him on the roster all year a’la Sean Gilmartin or offer him back, so I would expect he has a major inside track to one of the available pen slots.

Drew Smith came to the Mets in the Lucas Duda trade and in his brief trial last season flashed some good talent.  In 27 games he had a 3.54 ERA and chances are with some more time to adjust he might improve upon that.  His minor league mark was just 1.99 with a 3.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.  I’d say he’s got a decent shot of coming north as well. 

Luis Avilan has better major league numbers than many currently in the pen, including fellow lefty Justin Wilson, Drew Smith and Robert Gsellman, yet with a minor league contract he’s on the outside looking in.  I’d like to see him come north but he’s something of a long shot.

The other lefty of note in camp is Daniel Zamora who came to the Mets from the Pirates organization for Wild Thing Josh Smoker.  Zamora did a nice job in the minors and over 8 IP in September held his own.  He’ll likely begin the year in AAA but should advance due either to injury or ineptitude on the big team. 

The rest of the candidates for the pen either haven’t had enough time in the minors or are really starters in relievers’ clothing.  Given the mix of available folks, I would predict them going with a seven man pen including the first five plus Smith and Avilan.  I am sure the Mets are hoping for the best from Dowdy but the numbers simply don’t suggest he’s ready to leapfrog the others plus the fact he’s been mostly a starter in his minor league career further complicates his adjustment to the bigs.  I think Sewald gets bumped from the 40-man roster (perhaps directly corresponding to the Avilan promotion onto it). 

What do you all think?