"HEY! WHERE'S MY GUY ON THIS LIST?"
Before I start:
Rumors, I've heard a few
But then again, too few to mention
OK, TO THE ARTICLE…
Fangraphs is a truly impressive website.
It has SO much data on all teams.
It actually ranks many dozens of prospects for all 30 minor league teams, including the Mets.
Interestingly, in one of its data troves, it ranks the prospects in overall MLB order.
So, for instance, a Brennan favorite, Rhylan Thomas, is not in Fangraphs' MLB Top 100... or 200... or 300... or 400 ...or 500 ...or 600.
Nope, he is # 603.
But, since there are 30 teams, divide that 603 by 30 and he is a top 20 prospect on an average MLB team. Which is close to where I have him after his fine, first, full season, hitting .328 with solid defense.
Paul Articulate's guy, JT Schwartz? They have JT at MLB # 758!
But, divide by 30 and you get #25 on an average MLB team's prospect list. Pretty fair ranking, I'd say.
Both should climb in 2024. But Schwartz is not (yet) grading out as a Pete alternative.
Scary on this list, if you are a Mets maniac, is Kevin Parada. Fangraphs has him all the way down at #1003. Divide that by 30 and you get a 33rd overall prospect for your average MLB team, which likely means that his defense and high K rate of concern to Fangraphs rankers.
Not at all where you want the 11th overall draft pick of 2022 to find himself on this baseball-wide list.
I personally like Quick Nick Morabito a lot, but they only have him at #1,427, which is 48th in an average top 50. Fangraphs, while wonderful, can make mistakes, is my guess! Kidding aside, I expect Nick the Quick to jump 1,000 slots in the next 12 months.
There are also inexplicably some bloopers in their list (e.g., DJ Stewart, Baty and Vientos, and others who are now gone, are in it.). I think this tells me the list I accessed was last updated right after the July 31 trade deadline, at least that is my guess.
Tomas Nido is listed as the Mets' 102nd "prospect", an unenviably poor ranking! (Likely, he was included on the list in the first place because he was in the minors in August). So, you Nido lovers may wish to chew on that dismal assessment for a bit.
Joander Suarez was 93 slots above Nido, at #12, so that is interesting.
Joey Lucchesi # 82 round? No respect at all for 4-0, 2.89 as a Met Joey.
Fangraphs’ list also excludes recent draft picks, so the list clearly needs updating. I imagine they will do so soon enough, and when they do, I will pass that list along - if I remember to look for it.
Of course, adding the draftees in would push Nido to # 110 or lower.
Anyway, here is an excerpt of a few columns from the top 105 Mets on their list. The list was longer, but I stopped there.
Column B is the overall MLB rank in their database.
Column A is my calculated rank, where I divided their ranking by 30 to get what would be a Mets-only ranking (highlighted cells were their highlights, not mine).
Whaddya think of the extracted list?
|
A |
B |
C |
|
1 |
18 |
|
|
1 |
24 |
|
|
2 |
45 |
|
|
4 |
108 |
|
|
5 |
157 |
|
|
8 |
227 |
|
|
8 |
234 |
|
|
9 |
261 |
|
|
9 |
282 |
|
|
10 |
308 |
|
|
10 |
313 |
|
|
12 |
355 |
|
|
12 |
357 |
|
|
12 |
359 |
|
|
14 |
434 |
|
|
15 |
451 |
|
|
16 |
481 |
|
|
17 |
508 |
|
|
17 |
520 |
|
|
18 |
545 |
|
|
19 |
565 |
|
|
19 |
574 |
|
|
20 |
603 |
|
|
20 |
610 |
|
|
21 |
618 |
|
|
21 |
619 |
|
|
24 |
707 |
|
|
25 |
758 |
|
|
26 |
769 |
|
|
26 |
776 |
|
|
26 |
778 |
|
|
26 |
789 |
|
|
27 |
813 |
|
|
28 |
838 |
|
|
29 |
873 |
|
|
33 |
1003 |
|
|
35 |
1057 |
|
|
36 |
1073 |
|
|
38 |
1141 |
|
|
38 |
1153 |
|
|
40 |
1189 |
|
|
40 |
1205 |
|
|
42 |
1250 |
|
|
42 |
1253 |
|
|
45 |
1342 |
|
|
45 |
1363 |
|
|
47 |
1404 |
|
|
48 |
1427 |
|
|
48 |
1430 |
|
|
49 |
1472 |
|
|
51 |
1544 |
|
|
52 |
1569 |
|
|
53 |
1591 |
|
|
54 |
1614 |
|
|
56 |
1667 |
|
|
57 |
1722 |
|
|
59 |
1759 |
|
|
63 |
1879 |
|
|
63 |
1894 |
|
|
64 |
1907 |
|
|
66 |
1967 |
|
|
66 |
1978 |
|
|
66 |
1994 |
|
|
70 |
2094 |
|
|
70 |
2110 |
|
|
70 |
2114 |
|
|
71 |
2126 |
|
|
71 |
2134 |
|
|
74 |
2215 |
|
|
76 |
2275 |
|
|
77 |
2317 |
|
|
82 |
2474 |
|
|
83 |
2494 |
|
|
84 |
2516 |
|
|
86 |
2593 |
|
|
87 |
2612 |
|
|
87 |
2622 |
|
|
90 |
2705 |
|
|
93 |
2793 |
|
|
93 |
2802 |
|
|
96 |
2889 |
|
|
96 |
2893 |
|
|
99 |
2973 |
|
|
99 |
2976 |
|
|
99 |
2984 |
|
|
101 |
3037 |
|
|
102 |
3062 |
|
|
104 |
3127 |
|
|
105 |
3135 |
|
|
105 |
3143 |
28 comments:
When you draft really well, you can help avoid the “should I spend $500 million on this guy, or $600 million on that guy?” questions.
Time flies: Steve Matz turns 33 in May. Mets signed him out of high school. Doesn’t feel like 14 years.
Interesting shite
I believe Stuart should be ranked much higher on your list
Also the level of talent falls drastically after the first 10 listed
And three were obtained via trades
Hope these new nerds do their job better than the old nerds
One of the things I'm hoping most for the new front office and coaching administration is that drafts will improve significantly.
I saw there was a home run derby down south yesterday and Vlad only came in #2
The winner?
Alvarez
Also
Pete was at the Ranger game last night wearing a t-shirt:
"New York or Nowhere"
As far as the prospects go, good stuff here. And like all player and prospect rankings, there will always be some differences here. As you pointed out, this list was probably generated mid-year. There are a few whose stock has risen from their listed ranking.
Remember's Random thoughts:
Nate Lavender is definitely higher on my list.
Danny Mendick is a been there, tried that .. too high
Carlos Cortes was promising a year or so ago, has lost luster.
Personally I put both Gilbert and Williams ahead of Acuna (slightly).
Interesting that Hamel is higher than Tidwell, Scott, or Stuart.
Paul Gervase is probably right for the time the list was generated, but I sense he'll find some helium in the next poll.
And yes, I also like Rhylan Thomas. His power numbers will keep the reins on him forever. I really like his game as it is, and I doubt he'll ever develop the power that everybody today seems to want. I saw him a few times in Binghamton and he really puts together the good at-bats, particularly when they are needed the most. I don't think I ever saw him fail in an extended rally where they needed the 8 and 9 hitters to 'keep the line moving'. He excels in those situations.
Tidwell remains in my top 5
Tom, you have to look at their Big Board for updated rankings. Houck is #10, Sprout is #14…
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?org=nym
Just by seeing Brett Baty at 59 on your list tells me that something is wrong… and Mendick was never a Mets prospect… something is definitely wrong. Go to the Big Board instead.
My “wow” is Willy Fanas is #38 and Simon Juan isn’t even listed.
Here's my spin
A lot of these so called expert sites are one 19 year old type writer.giving you his or her opinion. Nothing more.
I value none of them
I rely on the results on the field
Gus, I will look at that updated big board. They do have great data, but you’ve gotta really search for some stuff.
Great research and interesting list. FanGraphs likes data, so the rankings are always going to depend on recent trends. This would explain why Parada is so low, because he did not hit well in the Arizona Fall League. Schwartz also struggled a little at the plate in AFL after a hot start, explaining why he is a little lower than expected in the rankings.
What I find curious is the rankings at the top. It looked like Gilbert and Williams out-performed Acuna in the late-season Rumble Ponies run, yet it was Luisangel on the top of the ranking. They must have listened to Tom about the "power speed" piece!
Bunch of bananas if you ask me.
Paul, the new Fangraphs link that Gus shared has Gilbert, Alex, Acuna, Mauricio, Parada, and Williams, 1 thru 6. Hamel at 19.
Crow at 20, Allan at 35, and Scott and Stuart at 43 and 46? Nah.
No Gervase in top 50, despite 96 Ks in 57 IP, and 2.05 ERA? Nah.
And 27.3 year old Dedniel Nunez at 21?? Nah.
And no Lavender in top 50? Nah.
Like I said
Gen-z bullshite analytics
Ain't never seen an anal lytic hit one over a fence shortened or not shortened
The Baby Mets were a major bust last year. Let’s hope they bounce back his year and that Baby Mets Pt 2 do better than them.
I like my Top 35 Prospects (from about a month ago) better than theirs
Mack, I would love a job like this. Just read what everyone else writes and draw a conclusion. Don’t bother going to see a game. Keith Law tells you if he saw a player or is going by reports from others.
A story:
Several years back the Arkansas Travelers with a .700+ winning percentage were coming to Corpus Christi to play the Hooks. I don’t watch much minor league ball, but the Travelers were the team that Kelenic was on and I wanted to go see this kid for myself. On a Tuesday night, I went but he didn’t play. The next night the Hooks were pitching Forrest Whitley and I knew all the top prospects would play to see how they match up. Well, Kelenic couldn’t touch a curveball if his life depended on it. I wrote a piece on Mets360 (I have video online) about that game and said that this kid was not anywhere near ready for MLB. He crushed fastballs from others guys, however.
I saw most of their kids, and fell in love with Cal Raleigh on sight. He threw bullets down to second and had tons of power, you could tell.
There was this other top prospect, Kyle Lewis, who turned me off immediately. He didn’t run hard on a grounder to second and even though it was bobbled got thrown out, and didn’t kill himself getting to a hit that was rolling up the gap. He did have a strong arm in right field however. But, I didn’t like him. Guess what? He won rookie of the year and I wondered what the heck was wrong with my judgment. Then, he sucked; bad! He is now on his third team, and hitting the interstate.
That was me again…
Here for comparison is my top 35 (and a few others past 35) from an October article:
1. Jett Williams IF/OF
2. Drew Gilbert - OF
3. Luisangel Acuna -IF
4. Ronny Mauricio - IF/OF
5. Kevin Parada - C
6. Blade Tidwell - RHSP
7. Dominic Hamel - RHSP
8. Christian Scott - RHSP
9. Mike Vasil - RHSP
10. Nick Morabito - OF/IF
11. Jacob Reimer - 3B
12. Nate Lavender - AAA
13. Paul Gervase - RHRP
14. Wilfredo Lara, SS
15. Tyler Stuart - RHSP
16. Rhylan Thomas - OF
17. JT Schwartz - 1B
18. Joander Suarez
19. Colin Houck - SS
20. Ryan Clifford -1B
21. Stanley Consuegra - OF
22. Marco Vargas 18 year old IF
23. Jeremiah Jackson - SS - AA
24. Brandon Sproat - RHSP
25. Calvin Ziegler - RHSP
26. Julio Zayas - C, age 17, in DSL
27. Rowdey Jordan - OF
28. Jefry Rosa - OF - led the entire DSL in HRs. And there are 50 teams in the DSL. And he only played 39 of his team's 54 games!
29. Wilkin Ramos, 22 year old RHRP
30. Anthony Baptist - DSL - CF:
31. Heriberto Rincon - CF - DSL:
32. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS in DSL.
33. Daniel Juarez - LHRP
34. Alex Ramirez - CF - High A - bad season, I lowered him. Take out that 6 for 6 game and he hit .210 in his other games.
35. Trey McLoughlin, AA reliever.
The link is on the bottom of the article and still works:
https://mets360.com/?p=40230
That brings back the memories of all the teeth gnashing and end of the world proclamations from the most famous (infamous) trade of the BVW regime.
Who here would now trade Diaz for Kelenic straight-up?
If we want to talk about poor trades, I anticipate that the PCA for Baez trade will go down as a far worse one.
Never trade a guy named Pete, Pete Rose might advise.
Any system that has Ramirez at #34 has to be loaded. They must be doing something right.
I put Alex down at #34 for the reason stated: “ High A - bad season, I lowered him. Take out that 6 for 6 game and he hit .210 in his other games.” He either just had a very bad year, and should remain a top 10 ranked prospect, or was highly overrated by many.” Stanley Consuegra, his outfield teammate, had a much better season.
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