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5/10/24

Reese Kaplan -- Which Approach for the Future NY Mets Roster?


On Tuesday after their second straight victory over the Cardinals the Mets wiped out the bad memory of being swept by the Rays.  Back to .500 they had the opportunity to leave the view of the St. Louis arch with a winning record.  Unfortunately the weather would not cooperate and now that rainout is scheduled on a mutual off-day in August between the Mets having been in California and then heading to Colorado.  It is not ideal, but no one can control when it rains.

With the bats slowly coming to life the conversation among Mets fans are all over the place.  Some are buying into the prospect that this team as it exists now is capable of participating in October baseball.  This group seems supercharged by the impending arrivals of pitchers Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Kodai Senga (likely in that order).  I won´t reiterate the track records of the dubious duo with frequent Uber miles between the majors and the minors, but Senga returning will be a great addition.


The second group of Mets fans seems to expect a great fire sale of current players due to the overcrowding of the roster, the contract expirations and the need to replenish the minor league stock of prospects as they are thinking towards the future.  This approach could theoretically mirror the clearing of the roster in July of 2017 which was the final year of Terry Collins’ 7 year reign of terror.  At that time the Mets dumped Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda and Addison Reed.  Of course, a more recent version with dual Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both being sent to the state of Texas. 

Trading away someone like Jose Quintana wouldn´t exactly mirror either of those previous scenarios.  He is a capable starter but not in anyone´s top ten list (maybe top 50).  He is a free agent at year´s end, so making a deal for him now brings back assets immediately as opposed to getting nothing in return once November free agency begins. 


The third group, however, is more interested in clearing player salaries and opening up opportunities for the minor leaguers on their way up to Citifield.  This collection of fans does not believe the club is playoff bound now and also feels the combination of frustration and boredom watching the veterans on long term deals who have not pushed the Mets into the promised land of postseason baseball. 

Now this approach requires the most courage as players in their early 30s will be around likely for about 4-6 years.  Older players above the age of 36 but still fully capable like Starling Marte may not haunt you for quite as long.  Throw J.D. Martinez into that group as well, not because he has a long term contract, but because his modest salary and stellar reputation as a hitter would make him desirable to another club. 

Think a bit about who the Mets have in the minors and all of the sudden you see the big traffic jam at Citifield.  Where do guys like Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna, Mark Vientos, Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert and others play when they are both healthy and posting solid numbers?  Towards that end, some volunteer that trading away guys like Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and others could replenish the minor league channels instead of continually blocking others in the case of McNeil or ending up with only a compensatory draft pick when Alonso turns down his QO and signs elsewhere. 

This group will quickly point out that Harrison Bader is on a one-year deal, Starling Marte has just one more year left, Omar Narvaez is on his final year, Luis Severino is a goner, Jose Quintana is playing for his free agency, Sean Manaea has a player option for a reduced salary in 2025 and could be departing as well.  The bullpen outside of Edwin Diaz is also pretty much available for the taking. 


Right now a .500 team is better than 2023 and perhaps even better than many fans expected for 2024.  Still, it mathematically puts the club in the middle of the pack which is not how you get postseason revenue.  The question is what do you do to plan for the playoffs — sit tight with what you have, trade off expiring contracts or clear house?  Doing nothing is how the Mets ran their club in the past when it was clear changes were needed.  Steve Cohen is not like that and so far we are not sure what David Stearns intends to do.

8 comments:

  1. I think with the 3 pitchers to return in the next 10 days to a month, JD Martinez hitting his hitting stride, and Alvarez due back in 5-7 weeks, reinforcements are coming that could make this a dangerous team in the not too distant future. I am willing to let the team ride and see where they are at entering July, unless the unforeseen (to me) happens and they fall apart before then.

    I am VERY disappointed that Jett and Gilbert are missing a lot of time here. They need to be ready to go in 2025. Acuna is one of the least potent hitters right now on a potent Syracuse team.

    I personally think right now that a line up of Alvarez, Acuna, Gilbert, Jett, Ramirez, Mauricio, Vientos, Rhylan Thomas and Baty, with Nido as the back up catcher because Parada is falling short, would be a near bottom of baseball offense for 2025.

    Now, add Soto in, and….

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  2. There are a great many players not performing at all on offense yet the club is still at .500. Some would say there is nowhere to go but up. Of course, the pitching could tank and that might spell another losing season, but for now I remain cautiously optimistic.

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  3. I agree. Nowhere to go but up.

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  4. Starting with Scott the strength we have is in our pitching prospects so where do you rank them Tom/Mack? So in 09 and 10 the Nats picked Strasburg then Harper with the #1 choice each year and of course a sweet WS win with those 2 followed highlighting the getting the right picks in the draft AND luck. My question is about scouting and I'm referring to the 19' draft where the O's picked Rutschman #1 overall then Henderson with the first pick in round 2 and wondering especially with Gunnar why he made it to the 2nd round? I know the draft is a crap shoot but certainly with all the available information and the money spent for the process how did he make it to the second round? In a sense the O's got two overall first round picks in one year and your gonna tell me it was just luck?

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  5. I'm in group #3, sell and make room for the kids

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  6. Sell....Sell....Sell.

    Pete Alonso wants a long contract and lots of money while going into long slumps and batting just above the Mendoza line. Mets need to move on from him.

    McNeil could bring back decent prospects once he starts hitting the way we know he can. But the Mets need to open up 2B for Mauricio or Acuna (if he starts hitting again).

    They need to trade Marte for the same reason.

    One player I wouldn't trade because he still seems to be getting better and is more of a leader in my view than Pete Alonso is Nimmo. (can't believe I just wrote this).

    Get cheap by trading over-hyped players, get extra money, spend extra money in Soto.

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  7. Nimmo makes you smile. Too many players make you scowl.

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  8. My keepers: Nimmo, Baty, Alvarez (of course), Lindor. That's really it for hitters, in my opinion

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