Reese Kaplan -- Which Approach for the Future NY Mets Roster?

On Tuesday after their second straight victory over the Cardinals the Mets wiped out the bad memory of being swept by the Rays.  Back to .500 they had the opportunity to leave the view of the St. Louis arch with a winning record.  Unfortunately the weather would not cooperate and now that rainout is scheduled on a mutual off-day in August between the Mets having been in California and then heading to Colorado.  It is not ideal, but no one can control when it rains.

With the bats slowly coming to life the conversation among Mets fans are all over the place.  Some are buying into the prospect that this team as it exists now is capable of participating in October baseball.  This group seems supercharged by the impending arrivals of pitchers Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Kodai Senga (likely in that order).  I won´t reiterate the track records of the dubious duo with frequent Uber miles between the majors and the minors, but Senga returning will be a great addition.

The second group of Mets fans seems to expect a great fire sale of current players due to the overcrowding of the roster, the contract expirations and the need to replenish the minor league stock of prospects as they are thinking towards the future.  This approach could theoretically mirror the clearing of the roster in July of 2017 which was the final year of Terry Collins’ 7 year reign of terror.  At that time the Mets dumped Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda and Addison Reed.  Of course, a more recent version with dual Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both being sent to the state of Texas. 

Trading away someone like Jose Quintana wouldn´t exactly mirror either of those previous scenarios.  He is a capable starter but not in anyone´s top ten list (maybe top 50).  He is a free agent at year´s end, so making a deal for him now brings back assets immediately as opposed to getting nothing in return once November free agency begins. 

The third group, however, is more interested in clearing player salaries and opening up opportunities for the minor leaguers on their way up to Citifield.  This collection of fans does not believe the club is playoff bound now and also feels the combination of frustration and boredom watching the veterans on long term deals who have not pushed the Mets into the promised land of postseason baseball. 

Now this approach requires the most courage as players in their early 30s will be around likely for about 4-6 years.  Older players above the age of 36 but still fully capable like Starling Marte may not haunt you for quite as long.  Throw J.D. Martinez into that group as well, not because he has a long term contract, but because his modest salary and stellar reputation as a hitter would make him desirable to another club. 

Think a bit about who the Mets have in the minors and all of the sudden you see the big traffic jam at Citifield.  Where do guys like Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna, Mark Vientos, Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert and others play when they are both healthy and posting solid numbers?  Towards that end, some volunteer that trading away guys like Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and others could replenish the minor league channels instead of continually blocking others in the case of McNeil or ending up with only a compensatory draft pick when Alonso turns down his QO and signs elsewhere. 

This group will quickly point out that Harrison Bader is on a one-year deal, Starling Marte has just one more year left, Omar Narvaez is on his final year, Luis Severino is a goner, Jose Quintana is playing for his free agency, Sean Manaea has a player option for a reduced salary in 2025 and could be departing as well.  The bullpen outside of Edwin Diaz is also pretty much available for the taking. 

Right now a .500 team is better than 2023 and perhaps even better than many fans expected for 2024.  Still, it mathematically puts the club in the middle of the pack which is not how you get postseason revenue.  The question is what do you do to plan for the playoffs — sit tight with what you have, trade off expiring contracts or clear house?  Doing nothing is how the Mets ran their club in the past when it was clear changes were needed.  Steve Cohen is not like that and so far we are not sure what David Stearns intends to do.