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11/24/24

2025 Draft Prospect - RHP - Patrick Forbes - Louisville

 


https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/11/1/2025-mlb-draft-top-75-collegiate-prospects?s=03  

PATRICK FORBES, RHP - louisville

Prospects Live Ranking - #59

Patrick Forbes is another intriguing arm for the 2025 draft.  Though only logging 29 innings for Louisville last spring, Forbes has premium arm strength on the mound.  It’s no secret, he goes after hitters with his fastballs as he threw it 77% of the time in 2024.  Forbes’s four-seam fastball is violent, ranking 97th percentile in velocity as well as the 98th percentile in spin rate amongst all Division I.  It ranges from 92-95, topping out at 97, that generates both run and ride.  Forbes also incorporates a two-seam fastball that gets more sink inducing weak contact and is tough for batters to get their barrel around.  His best off-speed pitch is an upper 70’s slider, a plus offering that generates tremendous sweep.  It’s one of the best sliders in the ACC, producing a 41% whiff rate and holding opposing hitters to a .143 average.  Forbes also throws an upper 80’s changeup to lefties, though it’s not often and lacks consistency with the pitch.  A member of the Brewster Whitecaps this past summer, he pitched just over 13 innings, recording 22 strikeouts and limiting hitters to a .167 batting average.  Anticipate Forbes to step another step forward in 2025 that would make him a compelling  name to follow for the 2025 draft.

 

https://gocards.com/sports/baseball/roster/patrick-forbes/14664 -

2024: Made 12 appearances on the mound with four starts ... Finished 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA ... Struck out 32 in 29.0 innings ... Made the first start of his career on Feb. 25 against St. Bonaventure, allowing two runs in a career long three innings of work ... Struck out a career-high six over four innings with just one run allowed against Youngstown State on March 3 ... Missed a month with a hand injury after being hit by a pitch ... Threw 1.2 scoreless innings with two strikeouts in his first outing back from injury at Miami on April 21 ... Struck out four while recording the final seven outs for the save at Boston College on May 2 ... Tossed three scoreless innings out of the bullpen at North Carolina on May 11 ... Threw a career long five innings, allowing two runs against Miami on May 21 in pool play of the ACC Championship.

 

https://www.si.com/college/louisville/baseball/patrick-forbes-invited-to-usa-collegiate-national-team-training-camp -

University of Louisville sophomore Patrick Forbes has received an invitation to the 2024 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Training Camp later this month in Cary, N.C.

Working solely as a pitcher this spring, Forbes turned in a strong season on the mound. The sophomore made 12 appearances with four starts, posting a 3.72 ERA in 29 innings.

Forbes missed a month in the middle of the season with a hand injury but returned better than ever. In his eight appearances after the injury, the right-hander allowed just four runs in 17.2 innings (2.04 ERA) with 21 strikeouts and just 11 hits allowed.

2025 Draft Prospect - IF - Chris Barr - Army

 


Brian Recca              @brian_recca

2B Chris Barr           JR | 5'11-165

'24: .341/.446/.471; 2 HR; 26 BB, 28 K

Some I/O and an AB where Barr just missed a HR pull side to the warning track. Undersized but some wiry strength. Pesky hitter. Experience at 2B/SS but also played 12 games in CF on the cape

 

https://goarmywestpoint.com/sports/baseball/roster/chris-barr/22778 -

2024: Made 44 starts at second base and shortstop…Led the team with a .341 AVG…Claimed spot on Battle of the Ballpark All-Tournament Team March 3 after performance in Sugar Land, Texas…February 17: Had a 2-for-5 outing in Cary, N.C. against Penn State, with a triple… February 18: Was 2-for-4 against Penn State, with two runs… February 25: Went 2-for-5 with an RBI double against Fordham in DeLand, Fla… February27: Had a 3-for-4 day at the plate with two RBIs against Maine in DeLand, Fla…March 2: Went 2-for-2 with three walks in win over Air Force…March 24: Was 5-for-9 across doubleheader at Navy… March 25: Was 5-for-7 in doubleheader sweep at Bucknell, while going 3-for-3 in Game 2 with a pair of walks…March 30: Went 2-for-4 with a third inning RBI in Game 1 of doubleheader at Lehigh, homered in Game 2 as Army secured twin bill split…March 31: Had another 2-for-4 day as Army secured series with win over Lehigh, driving in a first inning run and drawing a walk…April 7: Was 4-for-5 with a triple in romp over Holy Cross…April 13: Drew three walks in Game 1 of doubleheader at Lafayette…April 28: Had walk-off base hit in the ninth inning as Army secured the Star Series with rubber matchup win over Navy…May 13: Had RBI double in the seventh inning in Game 2 of league semifinal series against Bucknell to commence five-run rally to tie the game and eventually force a Game 3, would walk with the bases loaded in Game 3 to give Army the lead in the eighth inning…May 19: Was 2-for-4 with an RBI in second inning in Patriot League Tournament matchup against Navy…May 20: Had both hits and two RBIs as Black Knights closed out Navy to win Patriot League Championship Series…May 31: Went 2-for-4 and hit two-run home run against Georgia in NCAA Athens Regional, also drawing a walk…June 1: Was 3-for-5 vs. Georgia Tech in NCAA Athens Regional.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=729848

2021 Miami Prospect Showcase 

Chris Barr is a 2022 SS/2B, OF with a 5-11 160 lb. frame from Sarasota, FL who attends Riverview. Ran a 6.59 60-yard dash. Primary infielder with a medium, athletic build. Worked well to the ball with clean strides. Fluid getting through the ball and showed ability to change arm slots. Switch-handed hitter with a wide base and open feet from the right side. Displayed good bat speed and loose wrists. Torqued the hips well also. Starts from a narrow base with even feet from the left side. Worked the pull side of the field from left side. Has the tools to contribute on the base paths, in the field, and at the plate.

2025 Draft Prospect - SS/RHP/2B - Billy Carlson - Corona HS (CA)

 


Ben McKee              @benmckee14

Billy Carlson, a former Vanderbilt commit who is ranked as the No. 5 overall player in the '25 class, has committed to Tennessee.

The California native is a two-way player. Viewed as the best defensive shortstop in his class and been up to 97 mph.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=678488

2024 National Showcase 

Billy Carlson is a 2025 SS/RHP/2B with a 6-1 175 lb. frame from Corona, CA who attends Corona. Loose and athletic middle infielder's build. 6.68 runner in the sixty. Primary shortstop on defense, has elite level defensive tools, top of the scale arm strength and makes accurate throws, has bounce and lightness in his footwork and glides smoothly through the ball, works through everything cleanly. Right handed hitter, hits from a medium straight stance, gets coiled in his lower half with an inward toe tap, has present bat speed and gets separated well, lived on the barrel with hard pull to mid field contact. Also pitched and could be one of the top arms in the country if he choose to concentrate on pitching. Fastball topped out at 96 mph with big carry through the zone. Curveball was a hammer with 18" of IHB, also threw a nice change up. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt. Selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

https://sports.yahoo.com/top-5-recruit-billy-carlson-193135524.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Billy Carlson, a top-five prospect and a former Vanderbilt commit, committed to Tennessee baseball on Friday.

 

The Corona (California) High School two-way player is ranked the No. 5 prospect in the nation by Perfect Game. Carlson is a shortstop and right-handed pitcher. He's considered to be elite defensively at shortstop, while he throws in the upper-90s on the mound.

He took an official visit to Tennessee in mid-October when the Vols faced Florida in football.

Carlson was a longtime Vanderbilt commitment, but his recruitment shifted in recent months as Vanderbilt's staff changed. The Vols got involved in Carlson's recruitment after coach Tim Corbin fired two assistants, including hitting coach Mike Baxter. Carlson looked at other options and chose Tennessee.

The 6-foot-1, 180-pound Carlson is ranked the No. 6 high school prospect in the 2025 MLB Draft by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.

MACK – MY Sunday Morning Observations – Non-Tenders, Reetz, Dedniel, Meneses, Hobie, Siri, Soto, Rule 5, Cuts


Mike Mayer            @mikemayer22

Mets announce they’ve non-tendered LHP Alex Young, RHP Grant Hartwig and OF Alex Ramírez.

Mack – I found the Hartwig move surprising. I fell in love with this guy in 2022 when he went 0.59/1.14/0.00 for Brooklyn/Binghamton/Syracuse. Yes, he only had par minor league numbers since then and did not pitch well In his limited MLB career, but I thought his young age alone would keep him around in a weak chain. Had him as a BLUE prospect for two years.

 

The Mets signed catcher Jakson Reetz to a minor league contract.

                                                Jakson Reetz          

                                    Catcher, Leftfielder, Rightfielder

                        5-11               205                 RHH               28/yrs.

                             3rd rd. 1996 pick – Nats – Norris HS (NE)

                           2024 – MLB:                     -0.2-WAR, 1-HR, .143

                           Career – MLB:                 -0.1-WAR, 1-HR, .188

                        Strong arm – solid blocker – pitchers like him

Mack – To me, this is a chain roster fill who will be one of many candidates in play to possibly backup Kevin Parada next season in Syracuse.

 

Anthony DiComo               @AnthonyDiComo

Heard Dedniel Núñez is progressing well from a strained right flexor tendon and PRP injection, which is great news for a player who once seemed at risk of surgery. He's going to work out with Licey of LIDOM and could even make a winter ball cameo if things continue to go well.

Mack – I consider Nunez as a major part of the 2025 Mets pen and it’s great to hear that things are going along well here.

 

Mets have signed Joey Meneses to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training.

                                                Joey Meneses        (“cabajoey”)

            6-3                  235                 RHH               1B/DH           32/YRS         

            2021 IFA

            2024:                         -0.5-WAR, 281-AB, 3-HR, .231, .593-OPS

            MLB Career:            0.9WAR, 1114-AB, 29-HR, .274           

            2024 contract:        $752,000      free agent in 2029

            1.000% fielding for three straight years

            Currently has a chance to win the triple crown in the Mexican Winter League

Mack – this sign confuses me a little… there isn’t enough pop here to consider Maneses as a replacement for Pete Alonso, nor as a DH in the majors, and I thought that Ryan Clifford would get the lion share of play at AAA-1B.

 

Hobie Harris has agreed to terms on a minor league deal with the Mets

                                                Hobie Harris

            RHRP

            2024 – AAA:            10.3 K/9

                        + splitter and cutter, both returning gaudy whiff numbers

4-Seam got his hard last season

velo was up 1.5 ticks from 2023

toyed with a "death ball" slider

Mack – I don’t know enough about this guy to comment. Maybe a 1-2 approach next season with the slitter and cutter.


Mets have released the following minor leaguers:

C Christian Pregent

RHP Henry Henry

RHP Luis G. Moreno

RHP Jake Stevenson

OF Kellum Clark

INF Jose Sobero

1B Carlos Oviedo

LHP Jorge Avendano

RHP Eric Foggo

RHP Jean Calderon

RHP Chris Santiago

        Mack - Only surprise to me here is Pregent. Sort of a prospect and you can’t have enough catchers in the chain.


Siri… find me an outfielder…

                                                CF Jose Siri

            29/yrs old   6-2   210   RHH

            2024 – 18-HR, 14-SB, 1.8-WAR, .187

            2023 -  25-HR, .222

            OAA and sprint speed 99th percentile

            12-DRS in CF… .16 above average outs

            16 Outs Above Average,  8 Runs Above Average to his Left

5 Runs Above Average to his Right

            Elite 2025 CF tandem with Siri and Tyrone Taylor

            More power than Harrison Bader ($10.5mil)

            Projected ARB-1 at 2.3mil

            Team controlled through 2027

Mack - there is so much good here… I don’t care if he ever gets on base. And… he has the power to hit home runs and definitely stay off the bases. To me, this is an obvious attempt to shore up the right-center and create a more favorable presence for a poor fielding right fielder. And I’m not talking about Starlin Marte.

Which leads into my next subject…

 

It is my understanding that Steve Cohen and Scott Boras have become quite close. You do not get close to someone that is going to stab you in the back. Forget all that “you have to keep your enemies close” bullshite. These two baseball giants have a trusting relationship and you will not see another Yamamoto snubbing.

I’m told that that the Mets have told Boras that they will go $50mil above any offer for Juan Soto. I have no knowledge of that. I find it hard to believe something like that would become public.

What I do know is Steve Cohen keeps his word and I truly believe the Mets are the frontrunner for the services of Soto.

Moves like trading for Jose Siri feeds right into my theory… far less salary than Harrison Bader which would help the overall budget if Soto was signed, and superior speed that can help flag down those gap fly balls between center and right,

 

Will Sammon          @WillSammon

The Mets aren’t expected to make any 40-man roster additions before the Rule 5 protection deadline.

            Ira Saltz        @SaltzIra

That's two years in a row.  Doesn't say much about the minor leaguers drafted by the Mets before 2022.

Mack – This means the following Mets are not protected from that draft:

            Mike Vasil, RHP

Dom Hamel, RHP

Luke Ritter, UT

JT Schwartz, 1B

Hayden Senger, C

Nate Lavender, LHP

Rowdey Jordan, 2B/3B

Joander Suarez,

Jawilme Ramirez, RHP

Matt Allan, RHP

Matt O’Neill, C

Drake Osborn, C

Vincent Perozo, C/1B

William Lugo, INF

Junior Tilien, INF

Jefrey De Los Santos, INF

Wyatt Young, INF

Matt Rudick, OF

Omar De Los Santos, OF

TJ Shook, P

Luis Moreno, P

Felipe De La Cruz, SP

Landon Marceaux, SP

Douglas Orellana, SP

Luis R. Rodriguez, SP

Trey McLoughlin, RP

Josh Hejka, RP

Nolan Clenney, RP

Joshua Cornielly, RP

Raimon Gomez, RP

Layonel Ovalles, RP

Jeremy Peguero, RP

 

MACK - I hope the Mets didn’t make a mistake here by not protecting Orellana

11/23/24

Tom Brennan: Two Kevin P Mets Catchers, and a Few Others, Compared/Contrasted


Kevin Plawecki Made the Majors as a #2 Catcher; Can Kevin Parada, too?

The Mets selected catcher Kevin Plawecki 35th overall in the 2012 draft.

He turned into a decent # 2 MLB catcher in his career, hitting .235/.313/.341 in 1,426 MLB at bats spanning 8 seasons (2015-2022).

In the minors, he hit better, about 50 points higher than his MLB numbers, at .289/.359/.443, with 287 Ks in 2,347 PAs (one every 8.2 PAs).  

In the majors, his K rate worsened substantially, but to a still-decent K per every 5.1 PAs. 

As with most minor leaguers who reach the majors, the hitting treadmill tilts higher and runs faster, making it much harder to try to come close to matching their minor league stats in the majors.  Regression is almost always significant, when one is facing the likes of a Paul Skenes and not a Dylan "Boom Boom" Bundy.

The Mets in 2022 drafted another catcher named Kevin with the initials KP, Kevin Parada. Way up there pick-wise at 11th overall.

So far, Parada has done this in the minors:

966 PAs, 835 ABs, .233/.322/.395, 292 Ks (one every 3.3 PAs).

Looking elsewhere, the Mets in 2010 early in the third round drafted a catcher named Blake Forsythe.  89th overall pick.

Forsythee never reached the majors.

His MILB career stats were:

1,585 PAs, 1,384 ABs, .226/.313/.378, 456 Ks (one every 3.5 PAs).

So far, as one can easily see, Parada is far short of Plawecki and very close to Forsythe in offensive production.

To add one more catcher to this analytical mix:

Tomas Nido, a Mets former 8th rounder, got up 2,077 times in the minors, and in 1966 ABs, hit .266/.306/.381, with a K every 5.7 PAs.

In the majors, he, however, regressed much like Kevin Plawecki did: 

Just .210/.245/.309, with a K every 3.9 PAs for Mr. Nido.

Even Francisco Alvarez has seen his minors #'s sag at the major league level.   Expect offensive diminution from your called-up hitters.  At least for a period of time.

MY TAKEAWAY:

Parada was perhaps pushed up somewhat more quickly than the other 3 catchers here, spending his entire 2nd full season in AA, so his struggles at bat could be partially attributed, perhaps, to that accelerated pace.  

That being said, Parada needs to drastically improve in his offensive capabilities to be a MLB back up catcher candidate.  Defensively, he is not on par with Tomas Nido, at least not yet, so straightening out his bat will be paramount, since his catcher defense seemingly will most likely be average at best.

With that said, in 2025, I would immediately promote him to start the season in AAA, despite his weak season in AA at the plate, where he fanned far too much. It might take 2 years of AAA for his bat to improve enough to reach the big leagues, but that is OK. 

It could be more likely they will want him to repeat AA, but he hit incredibly poorly at home in Binghamton in 2024, but much better on the road, so for that reason alone, I would get him out of Binghamton and up to Syracuse.

Parada fanned 153 times in 114 games in 2024, and considering how Plawecki's and Nido's K ratios substantially worsened once they made the big show and faced MLB pitching, Parada needs to cut his K rate in the minors by at least 1/3, and preferably by 40% or more, to eventually get to the majors in any meaningful way.

I noted that Nido's minors OBP is lower than Parada's by 16 points, despite a Nido minors batting average being 33 points higher than Parada.  

Which to me implies that Parada has been instructed to try to work the pitcher and achieve a decent walk rate.  I would NOT so instruct Parada - if I was his coach; I would tell him to be much more aggressive at the dish and forget the walks.  

Don't swing at balls outside the strike zone, but don't take strikes to work the pitcher, since YOU are the one being worked when you get to a 2 strike count, based on your K rate.

Nido's minors walk rate was quite low, at only one every 18.5 PAs, while Parada's walked a much higher once in every 10.4 PAs...

I would much prefer to see Parada henceforth be closer to Nido's 18.5 to 1 walk ratio, for three reasons:

1) I would suspect that it would help him to cut down his K rate if he were to be a freer swinger.  Don't take strikes, don't "work the pitcher" until that 3.3:1 K rate significantly improves, to something more like Nido's minor league 5.7:1 K rate, which (do the math, people) is 72% better than Parada's K rate.   

And perhaps, to further cut the Ks, I will speculate that there is a need to choke up and be more defensive in protecting the strike zone than he has been on two strikes.

2) He has much more power than Nido, and so his added aggressiveness at the plate ought to ring up more doubles and HRs, perhaps making Parada more like a Gary Sanchez offensively. Since Sanchez has 184 MLB HRs in slightly over 2,800 at bats, everyone would be OK with that for Parada, including Parada (and me, frankly).  

3) Parada does not want to crash and burn in the high minors like Blake Forsythe did.  Given that Parada's and Forsythe's minors statistical ratios are eerily similar, that has to be a concern that suggests a course change, and fanning a lot less seems to be the key.

High K rates have stalled many a minor leaguer's career.  

I think Parada's goal in 2025 should therefore be to have a slash line of .250/.300/.450 with just a K per game, by basically letting no decent strikes sail past him for called strikes.  Those slash numbers and K rate for 2025 may look modest, but would represent a significant improvement over 2024.  

Then, in 2026, improve that to .275/.310/.500 and a K rate of 0.9 per game, and get a mid season call up to the Mets.  

That, if I was Kevin Parada, would be my plan of attack.  

He, of course, is the baseball player, and not me, and he will have to define his own approach.  But the numbers lead me to suggest a different approach.  

May 2025 be a breakout year for Parada.

LOVE ME NON-TENDERED

Non-tendered are Grant Hartwig, and the Alex twins, Young and Ramirez.

My, oh, my, what the Mets could have obtained in a trade for Alex Ramirez after the 2022 season, when he was in MLB’s Top 100 Prospects. You need to be able to discern your in-house talent, and wouldn’t it have been nice to package Ramirez in the fall of 2022 in a big trade deal?

He is fast, but had two straight horrible offensive seasons in 2023 and 2024 (.215, and just 12 HRs in 1,063 plate appearances).  When I saw him at the plate in a 2024 spring training at bat, I thought, “hasn’t this guy ever been in a weight room?”  Muscles aren’t everything, but emaciated players are puzzling to me.  Solution? Eat more, pump more, add 20-30 pounds.  Like Jeff McNeil once successfully did.

If you-can only hit .215 in a 2 year span in A and AA, what will you ever hit in the majors?  My guess is, not nearly enough.

Hartwig was pretty much Adrian Houser in a bullpen role. Glad they got a 5-2 career record out of him.  Good luck in the future.

Stearns demands better.

 

Reese Kaplan -- 2024 Mets as The Good, The Bad and The Ugly


Way back when I was a mere child Sergio Leone directed what was the creme de la creme of Italian made so-called spaghetti westerns entitled, “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.”  In it Clint Eastwood, Eli Wallach and Lee Van Cleef starred as a bounty hunter, a Mexican bandit and a fairly ruthless killer who would stop at nothing to ensure his job was done. 

What does this reminiscence have to do with Mets baseball?  Well, in their own way the Mets gave us their own Citifield version of The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.  The challenge for David Stearns and Steve Cohen is separating the wheat from the chaff and deciding how to capitalize on the good, minimize the bad and expunge the ugly.  Let’s have a look.


The Good

I’m not going to wax poetic over people who are no longer on the team, but part of the good was the starting pitching.  Part of where things got a little rickety was when that starting pitching did not dominate the opposition and it fed into the overworked bullpen sooner rather than later.  To continue down this path the leadership needs to reinforce the extremely thin starting rotation as well as engaging in the seemingly annual bullpen rebuild.  Kodai Senga will hopefully be healthy.  David Peterson will hopefully repeat what he did this past year.  After that it’s the sound of mostly crickets.

On the offensive side, you got a near MVP season out of Francisco Lindor.  Brandon Nimmo stayed healthy and his power numbers were up a little but his batting average was way off.  Mark Vientos practically put on a one-man-show and the hope is that he can repeat it.  Who you promote from the minors that could possibly be a 2025 version is a great mystery, but the long injured Ronny Mauricio may be a candidate who can respond at the major league level with power, speed and hopefully better defense.  This scenario becomes more real if they choose not to extend Pete Alonso an offer he deems worthy of his run production.

I will offer up three more names in this section — David Stearns, Carlos Mendoze and Jeremy Hefner. 


The Bad

Well, where do you start here?  There is Jeff McNeil downhill in 2024 from where he descended in 2023.  Hoping the late .270-hitting McNeil is more like the guy the club has come to know and love is a bit more of a hope than something you can pencil in as a certainty.  Nowadays people talk less about his hitting than his positional versatility.  When you consider the outfield is unsettled and there are a multitude of infield options in Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna and eventually Jett Williams, it may be time to sell a year too early than a year too late on the former All Star.

The same situation holds true with Starling Marte.  He proved to be mostly healthy this year and his base running was as good as it ever was.  Unfortunately his power was mostly gone and finishing the year with a batting average nearly 20 points off his career average makes you wonder if he was playing as an old 35.  You may need to pay down his salary big time to get someone to swallow him for what would have been his final year with the Mets.

Tylor Megill always seems to end up on one of these lists.  I’ll summarize it his way.  He’s not as bad as he looks on his worst days but he’s also not as good as he appears when he’s manhandling the opposition.  The end result for him was a tick over the 4.00 ERA mark for the season which is actually good for him given his career numbers and only slightly worse than Luis Severino’s ending ERA of 3.91.  Hopefully he is the sixth starter and not in the top five.


The Ugly

Well, where do you begin?  There’s Paul Blackburn and his injury, Dedniel Nunez and his injury, Christian Scott and his injury, Sean Reid-Foley and his injury and nearly everyone in the bullpen other than Edwin Diaz, Jose Butto and perhaps Reed Garrett. 

Then there are some long gone ineffective hitters as well as some who might have looked good to see again.  There are more holes in the roster than Swiss cheese but shoehorning in out-of-place hitters that can’t field or fielders than can’t hit is not the way to go.  There’s a lot of ugly to be pushed out the door if it hasn’t already volunteered for free agency.

The worst part of this section was the April, May, June start to the season, but if anyone told you around high school and college graduation days that the Mets would play for the NLCS people would have outfitted you with a well protected straight jacket.  

11/22/24

PRESS RELEASE: METS ROSTER MOVES


FLUSHING, N.Y., November 22, 2024 – The New York Mets today announced they have opted not to tender a contract to RHP Grant Hartwig, outfielder Alex Ramirez and LHP Alex Young. 

In addition, the team has agreed to a one-year contract with RHP Sean Reid-Foley. 

All other Mets players are signed for 2025 or will be tendered a contract.


OPEN THREAD - Any Advice to Jose Siri on This Challenge?

OK, Jose Siri is now a NY Met.  Siri and the Big Apple are a perfect combo?  Perhaps.

Above average speed and power, well above average defense, and otherwise poor offensive skills, most notably seen when pitch counts get to 2 strikes (i.e., 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2). 

Plate appearances when that 2 strike count occurred totaled:

298 of his 448 total PAs (66.5%) ended when he reached 2 strikes, meaning only 33.5% of his PAs ended when his count was at 0 strikes or 1 strike.

265 ABs with 2 strikes? 170 Ks, .113/.205/.208, 15 runs, 19 Ks.

In other words, on two strikes, he is awful.   

How awful?  Well, poor hitting (for a pitcher) Jerry Koosman was up over 900 times in the majors and hit .119.

Siri does have speed to steal - 279 pro steals in 4800 PAs.  And 167 major and minor league HRs in 4800 ABs isn't shabby.  Ans his MLB HR pace has been a HR every 22 PAs.

My 2 strike advice?  

Bunt, slap, choke up, do whatever you have to on two strikes to not strike out and make more contact.  And watch lots of Mark Canha HBP video, since, if you can't hit to get on base, then get hit by pitches (like Mark) to get on base.

Do you have any advice for Siri?  You can, of course, ask Siri if you'd like.

A puzzle to me is how Senor Siri has had such a glaring hitting defect (Ks) and spent as much time as he has in the majors, and someone else, like Jake Mangum, now 29, has yet to make the majors. 

Jake has hit .296/.349/.424 in his minors career, 81 steals in 1,800 PAs, just one K per every 6 PAs, and a solid defender.  Considerably less power than Senor Siri, but Jake is more "normal" stats-wise. 

I have a feeling the Tampa Rays were puzzled, too.  

Ever the economical franchise, Tampa traded Siri as his salary was about to "soar" from under $1 million to over $2 million in 2025.  And then Tampa promptly acquired Mangum who, if he makes the Rays, will toil at MLB minimum, and also promptly added Mangum to their 40 man roster.




Tom Brennan: Mets' Players' WAR in 2024


MOMENTS LIKE THIS MEANT SOMEONE WAS INCREASING TOTAL WAR

I saw the following FanGraphs listing of Mets' players' WAR calculations for 2024. I thought it was interesting.

I left out the guys below 0.5 WAR, like Brennan favorite Tomas Nido.

Francisco Lindor was head and shoulders above everyone else at 7.8 WAR.  If Mark Vientos had as many PAs as Lindor's 689, Mark would have have been around a solid 4.5 WAR at his 454 PA pace.  

Jose Iglesias had the 2nd highest "WAR per PA" rate behind Lindor. Oh My Gracious.  He had higher WAR than Pete Alonso, who had 400 more plate appearances than Jose.

Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, had a relatively low 2.7 WAR as compared to Lindor's 7.8 WAR in virtually the same number of PAs.

JD Martinez and Starling Marte both clocked in with very disappointing 0.6 WAR amounts, both being lower than Dedniel Nunez, who only pitched 35 innings.

Pitching-wise, it is surprising to see Tylor Megill at 1.4 WAR in just 78 innings, as compared to Luis Severino at just 2.1 WAR in 182 IP.  

Megill also, somehow, had a higher "WAR per IP" than Sean Manaea, and higher than Quintana, despite the Q Man's having 92 more innings than Megill. 

Thoughts?

#NameTeamPAIPBat WARPit WARTotal WAR
1Francisco LindorNYM6897.87.8
2Mark VientosNYM4542.92.9
3Sean ManaeaNYM181.20.02.82.8
4Brandon NimmoNYM6632.72.7
5Jose IglesiasNYM2912.52.5
6Luis SeverinoNYM182.00.02.12.1
7Pete AlonsoNYM6952.12.1
8Francisco AlvarezNYM3421.91.9
9David PetersonNYM121.00.01.91.9
10Tylor MegillNYM78.00.01.41.4
11Harrison BaderNYM4371.31.3
12Jeff McNeilNYM4721.31.3
13Tyrone TaylorNYM3451.21.2
14Edwin DíazNYM53.20.01.11.1
15Jose QuintanaNYM170.10.01.01.0
16José ButtóNYM74.00.01.01.0
17Dedniel NúñezNYM35.00.00.90.9
18Reed GarrettNYM57.10.00.90.9
19Luis TorrensNYM1300.10.80.00.8
20Luisangel AcuñaNYM400.70.7
21Phil MatonNYM28.20.00.70.7
22Starling MarteNYM3700.60.6
23J.D. MartinezNYM4950.60.6
24Brett BatyNYM1710.50.5
25Adam OttavinoNYM56.00.00.50.5