Kevin Plawecki Made the Majors as a #2 Catcher; Can Kevin Parada, too?
The Mets selected catcher Kevin Plawecki 35th overall in the 2012 draft.
He turned into a decent # 2 MLB catcher in his career, hitting .235/.313/.341 in 1,426 MLB at bats spanning 8 seasons (2015-2022).
In the minors, he hit better, about 50 points higher than his MLB numbers, at .289/.359/.443, with 287 Ks in 2,347 PAs (one every 8.2 PAs).
In the majors, his K rate worsened substantially, but to a still-decent K per every 5.1 PAs.
As with most minor leaguers who reach the majors, the hitting treadmill tilts higher and runs faster, making it much harder to try to come close to matching their minor league stats in the majors. Regression is almost always significant, when one is facing the likes of a Paul Skenes and not a Dylan "Boom Boom" Bundy.
The Mets in 2022 drafted another catcher named Kevin with the initials KP, Kevin Parada. Way up there pick-wise at 11th overall.
So far, Parada has done this in the minors:
966 PAs, 835 ABs, .233/.322/.395, 292 Ks (one every 3.3 PAs).
Looking elsewhere, the Mets in 2010 early in the third round drafted a catcher named Blake Forsythe. 89th overall pick.
Forsythee never reached the majors.
His MILB career stats were:
1,585 PAs, 1,384 ABs, .226/.313/.378, 456 Ks (one every 3.5 PAs).
So far, as one can easily see, Parada is far short of Plawecki and very close to Forsythe in offensive production.
To add one more catcher to this analytical mix:
Tomas Nido, a Mets former 8th rounder, got up 2,077 times in the minors, and in 1966 ABs, hit .266/.306/.381, with a K every 5.7 PAs.
In the majors, he, however, regressed much like Kevin Plawecki did:
Just .210/.245/.309, with a K every 3.9 PAs for Mr. Nido.
Even Francisco Alvarez has seen his minors #'s sag at the major league level. Expect offensive diminution from your called-up hitters. At least for a period of time.
MY TAKEAWAY:
Parada was perhaps pushed up somewhat more quickly than the other 3 catchers here, spending his entire 2nd full season in AA, so his struggles at bat could be partially attributed, perhaps, to that accelerated pace.
That being said, Parada needs to drastically improve in his offensive capabilities to be a MLB back up catcher candidate. Defensively, he is not on par with Tomas Nido, at least not yet, so straightening out his bat will be paramount, since his catcher defense seemingly will most likely be average at best.
With that said, in 2025, I would immediately promote him to start the season in AAA, despite his weak season in AA at the plate, where he fanned far too much. It might take 2 years of AAA for his bat to improve enough to reach the big leagues, but that is OK.
It could be more likely they will want him to repeat AA, but he hit incredibly poorly at home in Binghamton in 2024, but much better on the road, so for that reason alone, I would get him out of Binghamton and up to Syracuse.
Parada fanned 153 times in 114 games in 2024, and considering how Plawecki's and Nido's K ratios substantially worsened once they made the big show and faced MLB pitching, Parada needs to cut his K rate in the minors by at least 1/3, and preferably by 40% or more, to eventually get to the majors in any meaningful way.
I noted that Nido's minors OBP is lower than Parada's by 16 points, despite a Nido minors batting average being 33 points higher than Parada.
Which to me implies that Parada has been instructed to try to work the pitcher and achieve a decent walk rate. I would NOT so instruct Parada - if I was his coach; I would tell him to be much more aggressive at the dish and forget the walks.
Don't swing at balls outside the strike zone, but don't take strikes to work the pitcher, since YOU are the one being worked when you get to a 2 strike count, based on your K rate.
Nido's minors walk rate was quite low, at only one every 18.5 PAs, while Parada's walked a much higher once in every 10.4 PAs...
I would much prefer to see Parada henceforth be closer to Nido's 18.5 to 1 walk ratio, for three reasons:
1) I would suspect that it would help him to cut down his K rate if he were to be a freer swinger. Don't take strikes, don't "work the pitcher" until that 3.3:1 K rate significantly improves, to something more like Nido's minor league 5.7:1 K rate, which (do the math, people) is 72% better than Parada's K rate.
And perhaps, to further cut the Ks, I will speculate that there is a need to choke up and be more defensive in protecting the strike zone than he has been on two strikes.
2) He has much more power than Nido, and so his added aggressiveness at the plate ought to ring up more doubles and HRs, perhaps making Parada more like a Gary Sanchez offensively. Since Sanchez has 184 MLB HRs in slightly over 2,800 at bats, everyone would be OK with that for Parada, including Parada (and me, frankly).
3) Parada does not want to crash and burn in the high minors like Blake Forsythe did. Given that Parada's and Forsythe's minors statistical ratios are eerily similar, that has to be a concern that suggests a course change, and fanning a lot less seems to be the key.
High K rates have stalled many a minor leaguer's career.
I think Parada's goal in 2025 should therefore be to have a slash line of .250/.300/.450 with just a K per game, by basically letting no decent strikes sail past him for called strikes. Those slash numbers and K rate for 2025 may look modest, but would represent a significant improvement over 2024.
Then, in 2026, improve that to .275/.310/.500 and a K rate of 0.9 per game, and get a mid season call up to the Mets.
That, if I was Kevin Parada, would be my plan of attack.
He, of course, is the baseball player, and not me, and he will have to define his own approach. But the numbers lead me to suggest a different approach.
May 2025 be a breakout year for Parada.
LOVE ME NON-TENDERED
Non-tendered are Grant Hartwig, and the Alex twins, Young and Ramirez.
My, oh, my, what the Mets could have obtained in a trade for Alex Ramirez after the 2022 season, when he was in MLB’s Top 100 Prospects. You need to be able to discern your in-house talent, and wouldn’t it have been nice to package Ramirez in the fall of 2022 in a big trade deal?
He is fast, but had two straight horrible offensive seasons in 2023 and 2024 (.215, and just 12 HRs in 1,063 plate appearances). When I saw him at the plate in a 2024 spring training at bat, I thought, “hasn’t this guy ever been in a weight room?” Muscles aren’t everything, but emaciated players are puzzling to me. Solution? Eat more, pump more, add 20-30 pounds. Like Jeff McNeil once successfully did.
If you-can only hit .215 in a 2 year span in A and AA, what will you ever hit in the majors? My guess is, not nearly enough.
Hartwig was pretty much Adrian Houser in a bullpen role. Glad they got a 5-2 career record out of him. Good luck in the future.
Stearns demands better.
