Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions- Ruben Tejada Is The Answer…For Now

The rest of the series:

1.) Starlin Castro
2.) Javier Baez
3.) Troy Tulowitzki
4.) 2015 free agents
5.) Why infield defense matters
6.) Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor
7.) Internal Options

Ruben has already won multiple games with his glove. He also has two walk-off hits in 2014. 

If you guessed the conclusion to which I arrived by the title, I commend you. You probably do not agree. If you have kept up with the rest of the series or wish to do so via the links above, you will notice that Ruben is my answer less because of my faith in his talent and more because there are no other better options.

Fans and scouts have over-hyped and overrated Starlin Castro who will cost too much. Javier Baez is not a shortstop. Troy Tulowitzki probably does not get moved, and, if he does, it will not be to the Mets. The 2015 free agents have two options I like in Jed Lowrie and Hanley Ramirez but both come with inconsistency and injury issues, will be expensive, and will be tough to pry away from their current team. Infield defense is of the utmost importance for a team wishing to compete with ground ball pitchers. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor are two players I would trade just about anyone in the system and 25-man to attain, although neither will be moved. As far as internal options go, Wilmer Flores is not a shortstop. I will get to that more later on in the post as that idea (for some reason) still has a lot of traction amongst Mets fans. Wilfredo Tovar is just a lighter-hitting version of Ruben, Amed Rosario is years away, and Matt Reynolds profiles as a utility player and less a starting shortstop for a big league team.

In my book, that leaves us with Ruben Tejada.

Ruben Tejada is not a good hitter. He is kind of terrible, actually. Few have less power in the big leagues, few create fewer runs, and for a quick shortstop, he has cost just about as many runs on the base paths as any member on this current Mets squad.

He does do a few things well. While the sample is not huge, he hits extremely well with the bases loaded, runners on, and runners in scoring position--sporting OPSs of .762 (.951 career. Seriously.), .714, and .716 respectively. The number jumps to .777 with RISP and two outs. It leaps up to an incredible .863 with a runner on third and fewer than two outs. For reference, David Wright's numbers, in the same order, read .200, .740, .693, .406, 1.136.

I am not trying to say Ruben Tejada is a better situational hitter than David Wright. I am merely pointing out that Ruben has been strong in this area in 2014 and it has even contributed to two walk-off wins from Ruben Tejada base hits.

Ruben Tejada also draws a ton of walks, gets hit by pitches, and has the third highest OBP for a shortstop with at least 300 at bats in 2014 in all of baseball. That number is .357 and it truly is a beautiful number for a shortstop. Only Hanley and Tulo have higher on-base numbers. However, his OBP is inflated because of his position in the batting order and the absurd amount of times pitchers have intentionally walked him. Take away those 11 IBB and Ruben's OBP falls to the low .320s, much closer to the league median but still around the top ten in the league for shortstops.

(As a side note, if you bat Lagares 8th, which you will once Ruben is replaced, and you give him all of those intentional walks, all of a sudden his OBP looks really good as well. That's a story for another day, though.)

So what is it that I like so much about Ruben Tejada? Even the few offensive positives he possesses are flawed or misleading. I can answer that question with two main points:

Ruben Tejada costs 1.1 million dollars.
Ruben Tejada is an excellent defender.

Without either of those, I would not be in his corner. The cost of Ruben to play 1-2 WAR baseball with good defense and little offense for 1.1 million is far better than getting 2-3 WAR baseball and inconstant defense from Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus at 10 million a year for the next half decade. It's also probably better than giving Hanley Ramirez 15 million a year for the next six (or more).

As far as his defense goes, he has been nothing short of excellent this year. Choose your favorite defensive metric, statistic, scouting report, or article--Ruben has been very strong all year with the glove as judged by every method of which you can evaluate him. One thing he has improved on in a big way is his arm. His arm strength is a true plus skill now. I had it graded as just average last year and only that high because of its accuracy--not its muscle. Now he throws with both velocity and accuracy and possesses one of the best combinations of range, hands, quickness, arm, and accuracy from the shortstop position in all of baseball.

I have said this many times and I will say it again until readers truly consider it: You cannot build a team around pitching and defense and ignore the second part of that equation. You wouldn't build a team around Dwight Howard then play him at point guard. Scroll back up. Read "Why Infield Defense Matters". We have a ton of ground ball pitchers on this staff. You absolutely cannot have anything less than average infield defense. You thrive with three gold glove-caliber infielders. You already have poor defenders in Murphy and Duda. Wright is strong. If you compound Murphy's struggles with a double play partner who is just as bad (like Nick Franklin, Wilmer Flores, and maybe even Starlin Castro would be), you are sucking away the life force to the strength you built this team to be.

I have heard way too many fans (and even a good number of contributing authors on this very site whose opinions I respect) say that Wilmer Flores "deserves a chance" and that he's an experiment worth taking for the rest of this season. To that I respond with the reminder that we "experimented" with Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda in the outfield to get their bats in the lineup as well. Do you remember how that worked out? It didn't. Neither will Wilmer Flores at shortstop. He is not a shortstop. Wilmer Flores is not a shortstop. He will never be a shortstop. He is on the 25-man now because of Ruben's HBP. He is no more a shortstop than Eric Campbell. Actually, I see some decent footwork from Soup that Flores would kill to have.

Folks, we're left with Ruben. I do not know why fans hate him as much as they do. He is still the age of a kid one year out of college, plays great defense, gets timely hits, walks a lot, and has improved his game over the past year. Is he the long term answer? Short of an offensive outburst and serious improvement on one side of the ball--something I doubt can happen for Tejada--I have to say that no, he is not. If the rest of the lineup were all mashers, I would say that he is. He is absolutely talented enough to be the starting shortstop on a championship team. Just probably not this team.

The problem is: The Mets have to replace him with someone who is just as good a defender if not better. Hanley Ramirez is serviceable but not better, although his bat would probably make up for it (he is the only player on the market I can say this about). I really like Chris Owings and have for a while. The trade that needs to happen this winter is Kevin Plawecki and a pitcher for Owings. Short of an in-season move of the same ilk, there are no other options better than Ruben Tejada. No, he is not a good hitter. But yes, he is adequate, a strong defender, and our best option.

That is the end of the series, folks. I am up for discussion and, as always, open to the possibility I have overlooked key data or arguments. However, I have spent considerable time researching and considering the matter and I keep arriving at the conclusion that Ruben Tejada + his salary + his defense > any other combination available until this winter.

Discuss below.

--SG