Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions: 2015 Free Agents"

Over the past few days, we have discussed Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, and Troy Tulowitzki as shortstoptions for the New York Mets. All three of these players could be had mid-season, albeit unlikely. This following group of players can only be had for the 2015 and onwards, and it is a strong class.

Hanley's 2013, extrapolated over 162 games, would have resulted a 9.42 W.A.R. had he played a full 2013 season, the 87th highest single-season W.A.R. in baseball history and the second highest of any active player in any season (Trout, 2012). He had, in every definition of the word, an incredible season, even if only for 86 games. Those 86 games brought the Dodgers to the playoffs. 

1.) Hanley Ramirez- The star of the 2015 free agent class at any position, Hanley possesses a premier bat and average to above average defense. He's also going to cost 20 million per year for the next five years, minimum. That is a hefty price tag for a guy who will probably move off of shortstop by the end of the contract and has had trouble staying on the field. Still, Hanley adds game-changing offense to the lineup and still possesses good speed, good power, a good eye, and just shy of seven skills on the diamond, including one of the better shortstop arms in the game.

The Dodgers will be outside their minds if they let Hanley go anywhere. They have found a lot of success over the past 200 games and much of that comes from the production they have gotten out of the shortstop position. I also see few alternative to replace him, unless you can convince me Dee Gordon or Corey Seager can play shortstop effectively (you can't). The Dodgers might end up bidding against themselves, but they'll offer Hanley an enormous contract and he will accept.

2.) J.J. Hardy- Hardy has played himself into a big contract. He has steadily improved defensively and has been one of those guys that never jumps out of you but has been one of the most valuable shortstops in baseball over the next few years. If Hanley stays in Los Angeles, as I expect he will, I cannot help but think Hardy will wear pinstripes in 2015. He'll get his 4-year, 48 million dollar contract but he won't get it from the Mets.

Fun fact about Hardy: From the start of 2007 (when Hardy started back to back 4.0+ W.A.R. seasons for the Brewers) until present, J.J. Hardy is 5th in shortstop W.A.R. in all of baseball, trailing only Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, and Troy Tulowitzki. Amongst all hitters, he is 39th in all of baseball over the same period. Someone will pay Hardy a lot of money and he deserves it.

3.) Asdrubal Cabrera- A lot of Mets fans like Cabrera a lot but I am not one of them. I see a subpar, inconsistent defender which is a problem I have written ad nauseum about. However, the bat is very nice and he has had a good career hitting for power at a position lacking good power hitters. How Cabrera finishes the year will dictate whether he is priced out of the Mets pocketbooks or whether or not he is worth the upgrade. I am not saying I like Ruben Tejada better, but Cabrera would not be a great step in the right direction, especially since he will cost a (mostly likely) unprotected first round draft pick. I see no reason the Indians will not offer him arbitration although here's a curveball for you--if you're Cabrera, would you take it?

4.) Jed Lowrie- Lowrie is simply having a tough season but this is an excellent player. A lot of his offensive woes can be attributed to extremely poor luck on batted balls and he has cut down on the strikeouts while walking quite a bit this year. He also plays very solid defense. I am secretly glad he has struggled as that has reduced his price tag. I am not happy Addison Russell belongs to the Cubs, though, as Billy Beane won't let Lowrie go anywhere. He stays in Oakland. That is too bad, though, as I like Lowrie a lot and I do not see the A's offering him arbitration to stay there (I would just accept if I'm Lowrie. Think about it: something like 15 million for one season on a team that will be a world series contender again? I'd do it too). If the A's don't extend Lowrie quickly in November, which I think will happen, Sandy should make a serious run at this guy.

5.) (Jimmy Rollins). I put him in parentheses because there is a complicated team/vesting/player option that makes it seem like he will stay in Philadelphia, unless he is traded. Regardless, I cannot see him coming to play baseball in New York and he should finish his career in Philly.

6.) The others: Everyone else on the free agent list either lacks the talent to beat Ruben Tejada out in spring training for the position, is a part-time player, or just is not very good. The list includes:

Rafael Furcal
John McDonald
Nick Punto 
Stephen Drew (I swear if I have to listen to another off-season about this guy…)
Clint Barmes
Mike Aviles

Apart from "depth signings", the Mets will not look here. The only players are going to be a pricey and risky Hanley Ramirez, an expensive albeit productive and reliable J.J. Hardy, an overrated but powerful Asdrubal Cabrera, or an underperforming, cheap, enigmatic but talented Jed Lowrie.

In case my language was not a tipoff, the free agent shortstoptions for 2015 are flawed. All of them. Some are flawed and extremely expensive.

What's my take? I don't think Rollins or Lowrie change teams but the Mets should look at Lowrie if he becomes a FA. Hardy is priced out for me and will either end up on the Yankees or right back in Baltimore. Cabrera will get the most attention from Mets fans, but this is a guy who does not play good defense, had a very poor year last year and has rebounded a bit but does not look like the player he was in 2011 and 2012 when people started to recognize his name. When you throw in a lost draft pick attached to Cabrera, I am out on him.

Hanley is a different story. Like Tulowitzki, I cannot help but be attracted to the game-changing bat. He would fit into any lineup and make it better. His defense is better than Cabrera's and he is a known commodity unlike either Cabrera or Lowrie. The problem is: He's going to cost between 5 and 7 years and 20 million per season and the Dodgers will give it to him. That's the team the Mets will be bidding against and short of Alderson going against everything I know about him, he will not emerge victorious.

Conclusion: The Mets are a large market team who have been playing small market baseball for too long. Go get Hanley Ramirez. I still think he has five years (read: most of the contract) at short and adds a power and speed combination the Mets desperately need. The money will be insane. The years will be insane. He will get hurt. It's a second generation contract. Yea, all of the red flags are there. This is also probably a Hall of Fame player who has a lot left in the tank. He will let a few more balls through the infield than Tejada, but the offensive upgrade is worth the 20 million for a team that cannot push runs across the plate. You do not have to trade away the bright pitching the team has worked so hard to attain--the only prospect you lose is a draft pick in the 2015 draft.

Do you agree? Answer in the comments below or tweet them at me at Stephen Guilbert (@stephenjosiah13).

Scorecard:

1.) Starlin Castro- No.

2.) Javier Baez- Yes, at the right deal, and not as a shortstop.

3.) Troy Tulowitzki- Not getting moved.

4.) All non-Hanley, non-Lowrie free agents- No.

5.) Jed Lowrie- If, and only if, the A's do not extend him, which I think they will, Lowrie is a very attractive option.

5.) Hanley Ramirez- Spend the money, go get him. Asterisk being- You probably cannot outbid the Dodgers.

We're 1-2 for 6. I see Hanley as a good difference-maker who comes with a high price tag. If this were a small market team, we'd be 0-6. The Mets aren't. Start playing like a big market team and go get this guy. If you cannot outbid the Dodgers, go get Lowrie. If you can't get Lowrie, you're back to square one.

--SG