The next wave of Mets starters seems to be developing right
now on the Brooklyn Cyclone roster. Everyone that reads Mack’s Mets needs to
become familiar with these three. They could all be part of the 2029 Mets
rotation someday.
Nicolas Carreno is a
20-year-old left-handed pitching prospect in the New York Mets organization
(born June 9, 2006, in Barcelona, Venezuela). He stands 5'10" and weighs
155 lbs. The Mets acquired him from the Pittsburgh Pirates in July 2024 in
exchange for LHP Josh Walker.
Signed by the Pirates in 2023 as an international free
agent. Split time in the DSL in 2024 before the trade.
Progressed through the Mets system: DSL → FCL (2025) → Low-A St. Lucie (2025–2026)
→ High-A Brooklyn Cyclones (promoted
June 2026).
Key 2026 stats (through mid-June, across A and A+): 2–1 record, 1.89 ERA in 12 games (7 starts),
47.2 IP.
67 strikeouts (12.7 K/9), 23 walks (4.3 BB/9), low home runs
allowed.
WHIP around 1.05, strong strikeout-to-walk rate, and low
batting average against (~.160–.250 range). He has shown significant
improvement in command and consistency since his high-walk early DSL days. In
2026, he has posted career-high strikeout numbers and performed well in a
recent High-A debut (e.g., 6 IP, 9 K in one start).
Pitch Repertoire
Carreno throws from the left side with a three-pitch mix
(primarily), showing good stuff for his age and size. Data from 2025 and
scouting notes highlight:
4-Seam Fastball (primary, ~50% usage): Sits in the
low-to-mid 90s (up to 96–98 mph in 2026). Good ride/vertical movement.
Slider (secondary, high-usage ~38%): His best pitch — hard
(84–90 mph, up to low 90s), with strong whiff rates (e.g., 58%+ in samples; one
report noted 43.8% whiff). Can be short or sweepy depending on grip/release.
High spin and effectiveness against both sides.
Sinker (occasional, ~10–12%): Mid-90s velocity, used for
ground balls or movement variation.
Some scouting/projection systems mention potential for a
curveball or changeup (with future grades in the 30–50 range), but his current
game mix centers on fastball/slider/sinker. He has solid extension and
generates swings-and-misses, especially with the slider.
Profile summary: Carreno is a high-upside lefty starter
prospect with strikeout stuff and improving command. At 20, he's still
developing (especially control and secondary pitches), but his 2026 performance
in full-season ball is encouraging. He's viewed as a lottery-ticket type with
starter potential if he refines his arsenal and consistency. Keep an eye on his
progress with Brooklyn in High-A.
José Chirinos is a
21-year-old right-handed pitching prospect (born October 16, 2004) in the New
York Mets organization.
The Mets signed him as an international free agent from
Venezuela in 2022. He stands 6'3" and 170 lbs with a lanky frame and a low
three-quarters arm slot.
Chirinos has shown steady progress, especially in
2025–2026:2026 (St. Lucie, A): Strong results with a low-2s ERA, good strikeout
numbers, and improved control (e.g., around 2.36–2.52 ERA in recent samples,
~10+ K/9, low WHIP ~1.05).
2025: Solid full-season debut in A-ball (3.20 ERA over 56+
IP) with better strike-throwing.
Earlier years (DSL/FCL) featured higher walk rates and
inconsistency but promising strikeout stuff.
He projects as a starter with a chance to develop into a
back-end rotation piece if command improves further.
Pitch Repertoire
Chirinos features a multi-pitch mix (typically 5–6
offerings), with data from 2025–2026 showing:
Sinker/Two-Seam Fastball (primary, ~25–50% usage): Averages
~92–93 mph (up to 94–95). It has decent velocity but average movement/spin;
used more as a setup pitch for command and tunneling rather than a primary
whiff pitch.
Slider (key secondary, ~15–20%+): His best swing-and-miss
pitch. Sits high-70s to low-80s with slurvy shape, good horizontal sweep, and
vertical break. High whiff rates (often 35–40%+ in samples).
Changeup (~20%): Mid-80s (wider velocity band, high-70s to
high-80s). Arm-side fade; more effective at the lower end of the velo range.
Decent whiff potential.
Cutter (~15–25%): Mid-to-high 80s. Limited movement on its
own but helps tunnel with the fastball/slider. Often his least effective pitch
by itself.
Four-Seamer and Curveball (occasional): Four-seam ~92–93
mph; curve in the high-70s with vertical shape. Used less frequently.
tjStuff+ metrics rate most of his pitches around average to
slightly above (98–100+ range overall), with the slider and fastball variations
showing promise.
Scouting Notes / Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths: Good feel for mixing pitches, solid strikeout
ability (especially slider), improving command in recent seasons, and a
projectable frame for velocity/stamina gains. He tunnels pitches well.
Areas to Improve: Fastball lacks elite movement at times;
cutter can be hittable; overall command and consistency (walk rates have
fluctuated). Needs to tighten secondaries as he climbs levels.
He's a developmental arm with upside—watch for continued
polish in High-A and beyond. Stats and pitch data can vary by game, but the
sinker-slider-changeup core defines him right now. For the latest, check
MiLB.com or Baseball Savant game logs.
Daviel Hurtado is a
left-handed pitching prospect in the New York Mets organization. Born January
26, 2005, in Havana, Cuba, he is 21 years old (as of mid-2026), listed at
6'1" and 166 lbs, and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. The Mets
signed him as an international free agent in January 2023.
Hurtado missed 2023 with injury. His pro debut came in 2024
with the FCL Mets (Rookie ball), where he struggled with command and results
(0-5, 6.32 ERA in 8 starts). He showed strong strikeout stuff (13.2 K/9) but
walked too many.
In 2025, he improved dramatically: Strong showing in the FCL
(1-0, 0.47 ERA in 5 starts).
Moved up to Single-A St. Lucie (0-2, 2.70 ERA in 13 games/7
starts).
Overall: 1-2, 2.06 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 65.2 IP.
In 2026, he has split time between Single-A St. Lucie and
High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. He has posted strong results overall in limited
action (including a 0.50 ERA at High-A) with excellent command and strikeouts,
though he dealt with a brief IL stint. He was also selected for Cuba's roster
for the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
Key strengths: High strikeout rates (often 10+ K/9),
improving command and control, and a solid strike-throwing ability. He has
shown the ability to miss bats while limiting hard contact when everything is
working.
Pitch Repertoire
Hurtado features a multi-pitch mix typical for a young lefty
starter, with a fastball that plays up due to velocity and movement.
Fastball (primary pitch, ~50% usage): Sits low-to-mid 90s
(90-94 mph), topping out at 96 mph. It has good induced vertical break (around
15 inches, averaging ~2,200 RPM). It's thrown with a slingy arm action from a
three-quarters slot. Command is generally solid in the zone, though hitters can
square it up when they make contact.
Curveball (~30% usage): Big, loopy "lollipop"
pitch in the high-70s to low-80s. It has massive vertical break (around 50+
inches). Primarily used as a chase pitch outside the zone to generate
swings-and-misses or weak contact/ground balls. It tunnels differently from his
fastball.
Slider (~15% usage): "Slurvy" breaking ball in the
mid-to-high 80s. Similar shape to the curve but tighter/harder with good
horizontal movement. It has been effective for strikeouts and swing-and-miss.
Changeup (occasional): Used sparingly but shows promise as a
third offspeed option with fade/separation from the fastball. It could become a
more significant part of his mix for better tunneling and vs. opposite-handed
hitters.
His breaking balls are generally thrown for chases rather
than strikes, complementing a fastball that he can locate reasonably well. The
arsenal gives him good potential as a starter, though consistency, durability,
and further refinement (especially the changeup and overall command) will
determine how high he climbs.
17 comments:
Three Latino arms with potential. Hopefully, they will be Mets contributors in 2-3 years.
Keep it coming Mack we need all the help we can get
Got two posts coming up this week on the hottest Mets bats
You simply can't properly project Latin arms at the DSL level
Mack,
I hope to see a few 2025 draft pitching picks added as they come off IL. Several pitchers were selected and placed on IL due to injuries coming out of high school. Again we are looking at long term prospects.
Long term indeed
You can't draft too many starters
Look what's happening right now to McLean, Tong, Wenninger, Thornton... everyone at the upper levels are currently in the tank
Nicolas Carreno is why you always make lottery ticket trades when you can. You just never know. Grab hard throwing young arms with no command at low risk high reward.
It's so damn hard to pitch against major league hitters; on the other hand, it is so hard to hit against major league pitchers. Most pitchers succeed the most against the less than average major leaguer, and do so most of the time. Most of major league hitters above average, have their most success against less than major league average pitchers, and do so more than 3 of 10 times. Most games are decided by what the above average hitters are capable of doing against the above average pitchers. The best games are ones featuring the elite pitchers facing elite hitters. That is a small percentage of the games.
The percentages of each don't change much.
The differences come at the margins. The first difference is that you are likely to win more of the big swath of games if you can have a team with the smallest number of below average hitters and pitchers. And then you compund that advantage by having two elite pitchers, two elite hitters, and two elite relievers towards the back of your bullpen. Everytime you can develop an elite player at any position within your organization, that is a double win: the player and the savings on money. The cost of obtaining elite pitching is super high and like fancy medical machinery in a hospital it comes with an amazingly short half life. The best bang for the buck is to fill your roster with above average major leaguer hitters settling only for less when you have to, and that would be if you can only get an elite defensive catcher, ss or CF that way.
All this assumes something like a normal distrubution or a smooth curve from top to bottom.
The problem is that the biggest change in baseball has been how far the average re: hitting has dropped and how big the cluster is around it.
Given all this, what's the right strategy you would adopt.
Me, I think pitching first. Recognizing how high cost it is. Never have a less than good arm on the staff if possible..
Hitters are getting progressively worse in BB.
Chirinos had another good start last night; 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K's 2 BB's
I have one, also, on a bat no one else would consider. Yep, a short guy.
Grab those power arms whenever and wherever possible.
Jules, you have to draft more arms than every because too many turn into Matt Allan and Tom Szapucki, chronically injured
Ernest, what happened to that kid rhe Mets got for Jeff McNeil?
Every team drafts Matt Allan types. Some get lucky and draft guys in the mid rounds and find gems
That's why you draft at least 10 starters each year
Precisely Tom, Hitters are getting worse in general. If you hit 280 and have 35 homers and 90 RBIs you are officially elite.. 270 is what 310 used to be. Pitchers pitchers pitchers. As many as you can get; and they will all get hurt at some point. Their careers will be shortened. the difference between starters and relievers, but for back of bullpen and one or two starters will disappear in practice. Wins will be based on 4 innings, and then eventually on who pitched best in the games you win with a one inning minimum.
A lot of this will work like a well functioning market, including a transition period with some lag as an effect. What we will see are more kids becoming pitchers because that's whose getting drafted. Then the price of pitching will go down due to increased supply of everyone not at the tails of the curve. At that point, there will be an equilibrium price for pitching that treats it more like a commodity -- the way middle relievers are treated now.
Once that happens individuals will be incentivized to take up hitting and to excell at it. Not many will excel at first so they will differentiate themselves and enjoy near monopoly power in terms of what they will get paid. And then more will go into it and what happened in pitching will happen in hitting. And that is a common market induced cycle.
What would be interesting would be to have these cycles between hitters and pitchers coincide with similar cycles but in reverse in other countries where pro ball is played at a high level. Then instead of cycles up and down, You could ensure balance by trading across geographically spaced leagues.
Ex. Say when there is a period in the US/Canada when pitching is at high point and hitting is not, and that at the same point, the opposite is true in Asia and LaTAM. Then you could have wholesale trading of good hitters to the US in return for mediocre hitters elsewhere. So in the US you have balanced ball, but you also have balanced ball elsewhere, but it is not high level ball.
The US would then have no incentive to move from where they are. So the rules would have to be set up to incentivize them to do so. That would be by having the best young prospects, regardless of position sent to the major leagues in other countries to create disequilibrium there and US talent ages out creating disequilibrium in US baseball, after enough disequilibrium you see the market work its magic again.
Not reality mind you: just a thought experiment.
If you want the true market to determine shifts in which positions young players make, you have to introduce barriers to entry from players in other markets . It's just fun to think about.
We can expect that players will respond to incentives, and if hitting continues to such players will choose to become pitchers. Increase in supply will drive price down re: pitchers, leaving good hitters with monopoly power and incentivizing others to pursue a piece of that pie. and so we would cycle through short term equilibria.
Jules, interesting. One unrealistic idea I have is limiting any contact length to 3 years for hitters and 2 years for pitchers. Given the frequency of injuries, longer term contracts are very risky.
Pete Rose and Willie Mays and others of that time never faced anything like Jacob Misiorowski. The averages of old time hitters would have dwindled facing daily high velocity guys like those of today.
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