Mack's Mets

10/1/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - C - Julio Zayas

Julio Jorge Zayas is a New York Mets minor-league prospect, primarily a catcher who has also played first base (and briefly pitched). Key Bio

Born: February 16, 2006, in Pimentel, Dominican Republic (age 20 as of 2026).
Bats/Throws: Right/Right.
Height/Weight: 5'11", 190 lbs.
Signed: January 15, 2023, by the Mets as an international free agent (minor-league contract).
milb.com

Career Path and PositionsHe began in the Dominican Summer League (DSL Mets Orange) in 2023, then moved to the Florida Complex League (FCL Mets) in 2024–2025, and was assigned to the Single-A St. Lucie Mets (Florida State League) in April 2026.

He is listed as a catcher but has significant time at first base in 2026 (and some earlier games at 1B and 3B).

He has also appeared in a few games as a pitcher. Hitting Stats

2023 (DSL, age 17): Strong debut — .307 AVG, .885 OPS, 7 HR, 43 RBI in 49 games. Named a DSL Mid-Season All-Star.
baseballsavant.mlb.com
2024 (FCL): .239 AVG, .721 OPS, 3 HR.
2025 (FCL): .284 AVG, .769 OPS, strong on-base skills (.400 OBP).
2026 (St. Lucie, Single-A): 357-AB, 107-K (!), 11-HR, 57-RBI, 54-BB, .238/.340/.367/.707
baseballsavant.mlb.com

Advanced metrics from 2026 (partial sample) show average exit velocities and barrel rates relative to the level, with a roughly average overall offensive profile for Single-A (around average wRC+/TJBat+). Defensive NotesHe has primarily caught in the lower levels (with solid but not elite caught-stealing rates in available data) while seeing increased time at first base as he moved up. Fielding percentages have been generally solid.

Zayas is a low-level prospect still developing. He has shown power potential and on-base ability since his strong DSL debut, but he is not currently among the Mets’ top-ranked prospects and remains several steps from the majors.

RVH — Race for Six: The Final Board

The regular season is over.

The race is over.

And the Mets finished inside the six.

With Sunday's loss in Washington, New York finished 74–88 and locked in the fifth-best lottery odds for the 2027 Draft.

That's a meaningful reversal from where this series last stood. On September 10, the Mets were seventh among lottery-eligible clubs, with a 39.4% chance of a top-six pick. They went 6–10 the rest of the way, and the teams around them finally started winning.

Final result: fifth seed, 62.6% chance at a top-six selection.

The Final Lottery Board

Seed	Team	Top-six odds
1	Colorado	87.6%
2	Angels	87.6%
3	Athletics	87.6%
4	Kansas City	73.0%
5	Mets	62.6%
6	Cincinnati	51.2%
7	Detroit	39.2%
8	Seattle	28.7%
9	Washington	19.9%

San Francisco and Pittsburgh are ineligible for the lottery and can't pick better than 10th.

The Mets' Odds, Pick by Pick

Pick	Odds
No. 1	8.7%
No. 2	9.3%
No. 3	10.0%
No. 4	10.9%
No. 5	11.7%
No. 6	12.0%
Top six (total)	62.6%
Outside the top six	37.4%

Notice the shape.

The odds rise with each pick. The Mets' most likely lottery outcome is sixth, not first. That's how a fifth seed behaves: fewer chances at the first draw, but more chances as the higher seeds come off the board.

Remember the Distinction

A top-six pick isn't just a better pick.

It's a protected pick.

Under the current rules, the Mets' first selection drops 10 spots because they exceeded the second CBT threshold. A lottery pick from No. 1 through No. 6 is exempt. The Mets keep it, and the 10-spot penalty shifts to their second selection.

Miss the top six, and the math turns hard.

If the Mets fall out of the lottery, their natural slot is seventh through ninth, most likely seventh (21.2%). The penalty then pushes that pick down 10 spots, to roughly 17th through 19th.

We've seen this movie. This July, the Mets' first pick fell from No. 17 to No. 27.

So the lottery isn't picking between fifth and seventh.

It's picking between a top-six pick and a high-teens pick.

The Money Follows the Pick

The protection isn't just about who the Mets can draft.

It's about how much they can spend.

Every pick in the first 10 rounds carries an assigned slot value, and those values add up to a team's bonus pool. Here's what those slots were worth in 2026:

Pick	2026 slot value
No. 1	$11,350,600
No. 2	$10,507,000
No. 3	$9,740,100
No. 4	$8,988,400
No. 5	$8,336,500
No. 6	$7,746,100
No. 17	$4,868,600
No. 18	$4,695,500
No. 19	$4,530,500

That's a swing of roughly $3 million to $7 million in the draft budget.

And it isn't limited to one player. Teams at the top of the draft often sign their first pick below slot and use the savings to buy talent later in the class. A bigger pool means more flexibility across the whole draft, not just a better first name on the board.

The Mets know the other side of that. With their penalized pick at No. 27 this July, their bonus pool was $6.73 million, 28th of 30 teams.

Weighting the slot values by this year's lottery odds, the Mets' first pick is worth roughly $7.6 million in expected slot value, compared with about $4.8 million for a non-lottery pick.

That's the real stake of this series.

Not the talent gap between pick 6 and pick 17, which reasonable people can debate.

It's whether the Mets' first selection, and the budget attached to it, is protected from a structural penalty.

Now the Asterisk

Here's the problem with everything above.

It may all be moot.

The draft lottery, the CBT pick penalty, and the bonus pool system all come from the Collective Bargaining Agreement. That agreement expires December 1.

The lottery is scheduled for December.

That means every rule that produced this board is on the table in the next negotiation: the lottery itself, its weighting, the eligibility limits, the 10-spot penalty, and the slot values that set each team's budget. Owners and players could keep the system as it is. They could change the odds. They could change how penalty picks are protected. They could restructure bonus pools. They could scrap the lottery altogether.

And if there's a lockout, even the timing of the lottery becomes an open question.

The Mets did their part. They finished fifth.

What that finish is worth will be decided at the bargaining table, not on the field.

Closing the Series

When we started the Race for Six, the question was simple: could a lost season still produce a meaningful draft asset?

The answer turned out to be yes. But it was never really about losing.

The Mets played some of the best baseball in the sport after the deadline. They slid out of the race, then back into it. They finished with better than even odds of protecting their first pick, and the budget that comes with it.

That's the best version of a lost season: the kids developed, the team competed, and the draft position held.

Now the lottery gets to decide.

Or the new CBA does.

We'll see what gets negotiated...

Sources: MLB final standings; Tankathon penalty-adjusted 2027 lottery odds; MLB Pipeline 2026 slot values and bonus pools; MLB CBA/CBT rules.

Final qualification: Odds reflect Tankathon's penalty-adjusted table, which accounts for lottery-ineligible teams. The projected post-penalty range for a non-lottery Mets pick and the expected slot value are my estimates. Slot values shown are 2026 figures; 2027 values have not been set. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, and the lottery, its odds, the CBT pick penalty, and the bonus pool system could all change under the next agreement.

Paul Articulates – setting up the off-season

You may be watching the MLB playoffs, or you may be taking a break from it all after a rough season. Either way, if you are a true Mets fan, you are already thinking about what comes next.

As you can see by the “Important dates” listing in the side column of our site, there are some pretty big things coming up for the front office. This would include key decisions on who would receive Qualifying Offers, what potential trades can be negotiated, and where to pick up club options that are available. You are also anxiously awaiting the decisions of those who have player options.

This post aims to arm you with some important data to consider as these pivotal decisions come down.

The Calander: MLB’s activity timeline is always tied to the end of the World Series. On the fifth day after the World Series ends, personnel actions open up: Trades can formally be enacted, free agents are allowed to sign with other teams, and Qualifying Offers (QOs) must be finalized. The series will end some time between October 29th and November 2nd depending upon how many games are required. This pegs those key personnel dates between November 3rd (early series completion) and November 7th (late series completion).

In addition to the post-series activities, players that have received QOs are given until November 18th to decide whether to accept or reject. Another significant date is December 1st, when the collective bargaining agreement expires. If there is no agreement before then, expect all baseball activity to halt until there is resolution.

The Payroll: The current 28-man active roster for the Mets contains a lot more youth than prior rosters, with many players under team control or arbitration eligible players. Only eight players remain with long term contracts in place that commit salary and one of them, Bo Bichette, has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years on his deal. These eight (assuming Bo stays) commit the team to $217.35M which is far below last year’s roughly $350M in salary obligation.

A caveat here is that Jorge Polanco, who is under contract to receive $23M next year, is on the IL but barring a trade or release will be on the active roster in 2027.

Another caveat is that the 12 players making league minimum (assumed to be $1M next year but subject to the CBA negotiations) will add $12M to the bottom line and the eleven arbitration eligible players will add more.

Here are the current commitments:

This table can be expanded to include the full 28-man roster by including estimates of $1M salaries for those earning MLB minimum salary and estimates from Sportrac of post-arbitration salaries for the rest. I started to do that, but realized that it was futile because all of the “fill in the blanks” information is deeply dependent upon what is agreed upon in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement whenever that is finalized. Instead, here is a table of the arbitration eligible players over the next two seasons from the current team:

All the other players are controllable for the next few years.

Although these names are from the 40-man roster, we are primarily focused on the active roster (26 players for most of the season, 28 players in September).

If you keep all of the players from these two tables, there are only three slots remaining for free agent acquisitions or minor league call-ups. Clearly there will have to be some movement, and several articles within the last week have already discussed those potential choices.

Time to put your GM hat on and start envisioning the 2027 roster. Good luck!

9/30/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - OF - Aiden Smith

Aidan Smith is a 22-year-old outfield prospect for the New York Mets, currently playing for their High-A affiliate, the Brooklyn Cyclones. Background and Draft

Born July 23, 2004, in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Attended Lovejoy High School in Lucas, Texas.
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 4th round (124th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft.
Signed for an above-slot $1.2 million bonus, turning down a commitment to Mississippi State.
Height/weight listed around 6'1"–6'3", 190 lbs; bats and throws right-handed.
baseballsavant.mlb.com

Career Path and TradesSmith has been traded twice already:

In July 2024, the Mariners sent him (along with pitcher Brody Hopkins and a PTBNL) to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Randy Arozarena.
On August 2, 2026, the Rays traded him (with infielder Émilien Pitre and right-hander Gary Gill Hill) to the Mets for pitcher Freddy Peralta. He was activated with High-A Brooklyn shortly after.
cbssports.com

He was previously ranked as high as a Top 100 prospect (briefly No. 100 on MLB Pipeline in 2025) and was the Rays’ No. 15 prospect at the time of the 2026 trade. He ranks around No. 12–14 in the Mets system per recent Pipeline updates. Playing Style and ToolsSmith is a toolsy, athletic outfielder with plus speed (often graded 60), a strong arm (60), and solid defensive ability in center field (improved under the Rays, now viewed as a potential plus defender there). He has raw power potential (projectable 20+ HR upside with added strength) and gap-to-gap contact skills, though strikeouts have been a recurring issue (around 30–32% rates in recent seasons). Scouting grades have varied but typically include average-to-above hit/power tools with strong speed/defense. Performance Notes

2024 (Single-A): Strong debut year — .288/.401/.473 with 11 HR and 41 steals across Modesto and Charleston.
2025 (High-A Bowling Green): .237/.331/.388 with 14 HR and another 41 steals in 102 games; high strikeout rate but finished strong.
2026: Started slowly with the Rays (including a hamstring injury), hitting .215/.283/.410 with 10 HR and 14 steals in 49 High-A games before the trade.
baseballsavant.mlb.com
2006-A+ Brooklyn - .321/.414/.524 and 11 SB in 99 PAs, but with 30 Ks.

He remains a year or more away from the majors (ETA often projected around 2027–2028) and is more tools-oriented than polished production-wise at this stage, with strikeout reduction as a key development area.

He’s not yet on the 40-man roster.

Tom Brennan - 10 Most Disappointing 2026 Mets Minor Leaguers; Lower Minors Success May Not Be Indicative of Future Success

“HOW THE HECK DID THESE PROSPECTS DO SO POORLY?”

Some guys in their Mets minors tutelage phase literally performed far below my (and others’) pre-season expectations for most if not all of the 2026 season.

When it comes to hitters…

Climbing the minor league ladder is simply…

Survival of the Hittest.

Poor pitchers OTOH can and do cough up excessive bases on balls and HRs.

That being said…

Let’s consider my top 10 flops of 2026…

- I add in where they landed in my Top 50 list a year ago, in parens:

Ryan Lambert (2025 rank: # 17) - through September 13, an 8.00 ERA in 27 innings, with 30 walks and 4 hit batsmen. Handing out more freebies than Freddy Krueger of Halloween. I worried about him when I saw him throw a particularly bad outing in spring training, which I thought was jitters, but was more of a warning sign of things to come.

Last year, in A and AA, a stellar 1.62 ERA with 81 Ks in 50 innings, and prior to spring training, I hoped he would break camp with the Mets. Not even close.

Ryan Clifford (2025 rank: # 6) - I was hopeful pre-season that he would improve over his decent 2025 that had him ranked as high as the Mets minor league prospect. Instead, his 2026 was kind of weak starting out, then collapsed in an heap after mid-May. Ks in incredible quantities. .178, with 170 Ks in 111 AAA games. I wrote the following in my ranking last year for Clifford, which he apparently did not read:

…to Clifford, I would say: ”OK, you’ve proved you can walk a lot, now ATTACK!” Be aggressive. Less walks, higher average, more HRs. Essentially: From here on out, please be the next Nick Kurtz. Attack.I bring up his need to ATTACK, because others are already inferring it, but not saying it directly. Who are those “others”? The people who put together Baseball Top 100 lists, who do not include Clifford. ATTACK!

Colin Houck (2025 rank: # 42) - the former 32nd overall pick in 2023, Houck was horrific most of the year, strikeout-wise, but he finished 12 for his last 42, which might be an indicator of turnaround progress. He ended up hitting .212 in 99 High A games, with 154 Ks. He is well down the infield prospects list in the Mets system now, and needs to figure it out or exit stage right after 2027.

Antonio Jimenez (2025 rank: # 22) - the 102nd overall pick in 2025, Jimenez hit an OK .247 while in low A St Lucie, but just .160 in 54 Brooklyn High A games.

Daiverson Gutierrez (2025 rank: # 30) - he did skip a level from the FCL to High A Brooklyn, but hit just .198, due to a ghastly .155 average ON THE ROAD. I cut him slack, since he jumped over St. Lucie and I expect the just-turned 21 year old catcher to improve in 2027 at the plate.

Jacob Reimer (2025 rank: # 7) - he substantially step things up up late in the season, but only got into 88 AA games. Prior to the season, I was certain he’d be promoted to AAA by midseason. He’s missed more than 40% of games over the past 3 seasons. He was hitting .212 when he got hurt on June 17. He hit much better for average after he returned, but with diminished power. Not a complete wash out season, but a big disappointment, far below most everyone’s expectations.

Brendan Girton (2025 rank: # 29) - in 16 relief outings and 15 starts in AA, he went just 1-4, 6.72, more than double his 2025 ERA of 3.10.

Joel Diaz (2025 rank: # 40) - 0-9, 6.75 ERA, 1.89 WHIP? Ouch. He was somewhat better in the second half, but a very bad season pitching in pitcher-friendly Brooklyn. So, Girton and Diaz pitched in 50 games and went 1-13. (Will Watson was 0-7, so that trio went 1-20.)

Eli Serrano III (2025 rank: # 20) - the 111th overall pick in 2024 came into 2026 ranked pretty highly (less highly by me) due to his perceived tools. Injuries came, and the lefty outfielder’s season was abysmal. 265 at bats, and a .185 average renders him a suspect rather than a prospect. Career .209 hitter in 652 pro at bats is simply NG.

- Ask me anything more about Serrano III, and I will take the 5th.

Boston Baro (2025 rank: # 24) - how could I be disappointed with a guy who hits .324 with a .395 OBP?

Being limited to 38 PAs due to his shoulder(?) injury, that’s how.

- If he gets 100% healthy next year, watch out. The talent is there.

Any Mets minor league players that I did not list here that you felt should have made this Truly Troubled Ten List?

When NO Mets minor league team makes the playoffs, trust me, there are > 10 Troubled Players in River City.

DON’T GET TOO DANGED EXCITED BY LOWER MINORS STATS

They may indicate future major league success…

…or just the ability to succeed at lower minor league levels.

Two past pitchers come to mind as examples:

1. Jaison Valera

In 2016-18 in the low minors, Vilera tossed 193 innings, allowed just 131 hits, and was 13-4 with a 1.80 ERA. CANNOT MISS, RIGHT?

Wrong. From 2019 -2022, he went 8-18, allowing 145 runs in 178 innings.

So 2016-18 forecast nothing, really.

2. Mark Cohoon

He pitched in the Mets minors 2008-13.

He was 9-2, 2.15 in Low A.

He was 9-3, 1.97 in Full A.

- So far, so great.

But…he declined as opponents’ abilities inclined.

He was 23-23, 3.86 in AA.

He was 4-12, 6.77 in AAA.

So his early seasons forecasted…well…nothing, really.

Coming Soon…

Keep An Eye Out For…

My Top Ten Minor League Outperforming Delights in 2026.

SAW THIS IN A FACEBOOK POST:

Trevor Rogers on Pete Alonso:

"He's one of the best teammates ever. ... It's probably the best second half performance I've ever seen from a hitter. He could very well be a Hall of Famer when it's all said and done. The fact that I played with him, it's special."

Sentiments like that don’t show up in an Excel schedule.

METS GAME 162 FAREWELL THEME SONG

“I’m Going Home”, by 10 Years After.

“The song became a massive cultural touchstone after the band performed an explosive, high-energy rendition of it at the Woodstock Festival on August 17, 1969.”

The New York Mets won on August 17, 1969, by the way, defeating the San Diego Padres by a score of 3–2 at Shea Stadium.

We Metsies these days, tho’, always head home after game 162, don’t we?

FOR US…IT IS 40 YEARS AFTER.

CLICK THE LINK BELOW FOR A ROUGHLY “60 YEARS AFTER” LISTEN!

I’M GOING HOME - 10 YEARS After

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