RVH – THE 2026 SEASON: Where the Mets Win (and Where It Gets Dangerous)

 

Good morning. It's time for the 2026 Season!

We’ve spent the winter breaking down the roster, debating bullpen roles, and asking whether the next wave in Syracuse is ready to contribute.

But roster construction is only half the equation.

The other half is the schedule.

162 games isn’t a straight line, it’s a distribution. If you want to understand how a 90+ win team actually gets there, you have to identify where wins are banked, where performance needs to hold, and where the season gets stress-tested.

A quick note on method:
This is a first-look schedule piece, so the frame starts with 2025 records as the baseline. That’s a useful proxy in March, not a final answer. As 2026 unfolds, this analysis should migrate to actual team quality, form, health, and run environment.

With that in mind, I’ve gone through the full 2026 slate and mapped where this schedule opens up—and where it tightens.

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1. The Runway (March 26 – April 12)

The Mets open with:

• Pirates (71 wins)

• Cardinals (78 wins)

• Giants (81 wins)

• Diamondbacks (80 wins)

• Athletics (76 wins)

This is not just a manageable start.

This is a win accumulation window.

The Observation:
This is a +EV stretch where something like 7–3 or 8–4 is the expectation, not the upside.

If you play this stretch at .500, you’re not just treading water—you’re losing ground to the math of a 90+ win season.

This is where good teams quietly separate early.

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2. The First Stress Test (April 13 – April 19)

Then it flips immediately:

• @ Dodgers (93 wins)
  
  

• @ Cubs (92 wins)

Now you’re dealing with elite run prevention, swing-and-miss, and lineups that punish mistakes.

This stretch isn’t about sweeping.

It’s about stability.

Can the rotation:

• Avoid blow-up innings

• Keep games in a 3–4 run band

• Protect the bullpen early in the season

You don’t need to win the week. You need to avoid giving back what you just built.

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3. The Buffer Phase (Late April – May)

The schedule opens again:

• Rockies (43 wins, twice)

• Nationals (66 wins)

• Angels (72 wins)

• Twins (70 wins)

Layer in the Subway Series at home vs the Yankees.

The Strategy:
This is where you build the cushion.

You don’t need to beat the Yankees to win this month.
You need to stack wins across the lower half of the schedule.

A 12–8 type run here is what creates separation.

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4. The Stability Window (June – Early July)

This may be the most quietly important phase of the season.

• Limited West Coast travel after early June

• Balanced home/road structure

• Series against strong but manageable competition (PHI, BOS, ATL)

This is where:

• Bullpen usage normalizes

• Recovery cycles stabilize

• Performance variance tightens

This is where good teams become consistent teams.

The Mets don’t need to spike here.  They need to hold form and avoid drift.

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5. The Compression Point (Late July – August)

Now the schedule starts layering playoff-caliber teams:

• Padres (90 wins)

• Brewers (97 wins)

• Cubs (92 wins)

• Dodgers (93 wins)

This isn’t one gauntlet. It’s repeated exposure to high-end competition.

If there’s a weakness in:

• The back of the rotation

• High-leverage bullpen depth

• Defensive consistency

This is where it starts to show.

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6. The September Wall

Then everything compresses.

• @ Yankees (94 wins)

• vs Phillies (96 wins)

• vs Brewers (97 wins)

Nine straight games against teams that averaged roughly 95 wins.

This is not where you win the division.

This is where you either:

• Validate the work done from April through July
  or

• Watch the margin disappear quickly

If the Mets enter this stretch with:

• A 4–6 game cushion → manageable

• A 1–2 game margin → volatile

• Tied or trailing → extremely difficult
  
  

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The Real Story: Front-Loaded Opportunity, Back-Loaded Risk

This schedule has a very clear shape:

• April–May = Build the floor

• June–July = Stabilize performance

• August–September = Absorb pressure

The Mets don’t need to be great in September.

They need to arrive in September with margin.

Because once you hit that final stretch, you’re no longer playing the schedule. You’re playing the other contenders directly.

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Final Thought

For all the focus on roster construction, this schedule asks a simple question:

Are the Mets built to bank wins early, or are they still a team that needs time to figure itself out?

Because this year, there’s no runway for a slow start.

And if you don’t build the cushion early, that September wall isn’t just tough.

It’s decisive.

Tom Brennan: Edwin, Devin, Craig, Parnell, Jeurys - Closer Shelf Lives; and Whoa! Crow Dough!

DEVIN WILLIAMS MIGRATED FROM THE BRONX TO QUEENS

 

THE SEASON STARTS TOMORROW. 

AS ALWAYS, THE BULLPEN COMES INTO FOCUS. 

Edwin Diaz was an epicenter of brilliance on a sinking Mets ship in 2025. 6-3, 1.63, and a ton of saves.

My guess is, at age 32 in 2026, he will likely will excel again…for LAD.

But the Diaz contract is for THREE years, ages 32, 33, and 34.

Age often becomes the enemy of the closer. 

Will it for Edwin? Time will tell.  

He did throw a little less hard after his WBC injury than he did in the season prior. Still very hard, to be sure. But what if he slips two more MPH this year? Or 4 more MPH by 2028? Can he compensate?

We all know he holds base runners extremely poorly. What if his K rate slips dramatically in LAD years 2 and 3?  What if his WHIP rises by 30%?  That’s a lot more scampering base rabbits, running wild and free.

His K/9 was still high, but down in a more than insignificant way than his stunning K/9 rates of his prior 2 seasons.

That’s enough sugar for now.

How have other very good and great relievers aged?

Craig Kimbrel? 

He failed to make the Mets opening day roster in part due to mensa-mensa velocity. In years gone by?

Absolutely Hall of Fame caliber - thru age 30. Killer. Beast. Flamethrower.

Thereafter, he was high quality - in just his age 33 season. 

But in his age 31, 32, 34, 35, 36 and 37 seasons?  Nope. NG. Not A-OK.

Nothing whatsoever like the exhilarating and blistering performances he achieved through age 30.

He is remaining in camp, hoping an opportunity opens up. Good for him.

Jeurys Familia?  

Very solid through age 30, but downright mediocre thereafter.

Devin Williams? 

Superb through age 29.  A 1.60 combined ERA in 2022, 2023, and 2024.  

Shaky, but with a strong WHIP and K rate, in 2025, at age 30. 

But don’t forget his 4 excellent post-season innings in 2025.

One year bad blip? We will soon find out. I am leaning towards a solid rebound in 2026. A 2.50 ERA?

He is in the same age range as Edwin and also signed for 3 years, but at 2/3 the cost.

One more…

Bobby Parnell?

The former 100+ MPH Mets closer had very solid relief years at ages 27 and 28, then injuries caused his career to crumble.

In conclusion, it is hard to project when a post-30 aging reliever will stumble, humbly crumble, and downright bumble. 

And 2026 alone (no matter how good) may not be all-revealing for the above active guys signed to a multiplicity of seasons. 

But as relievers that are getting older? 

It is clear they are an unpredictable bunch. 2027 might not be heaven.

YOUNG CROW PICTURE FROM A BRENNAN ARTICLE 5 YEARS AGO

WHOA!! CROW DOUGH!

Read this - and said WHOA!

“The Cubs and (former Mets uber-prospect) Pete Crow-Armstrong agreed to a six-year, $115 million extension, a source told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, keeping the center fielder as part of the team's core through the 2032 season. 

“The club has not confirmed the contract, which is pending a physical. There are no options in the extension, which buys out his first two free-agent years and is the largest contract ever with no club options for a player with five years of control remaining. 

“Escalators for 2031-32 could make the deal worth as much as $133 million, per source.”

- Now THAT was a terrible trade. No more dumb deals!

 - Wait, I’ve written that about 100 times since the Crow was dealt away.

Reese Kaplan -- Is a Last Minute Trade Available For Mark Vientos?

Sometimes at the eleventh hour things occur that shed new light on otherwise seemingly unanswerable and hopeless situations. 

During the WBC the Cubs lost outfielder Seiya Suzuki to a knee injury that all of the sudden appears to be a lot more severe than originally feared.  The Japanese import has been successful in Chicago, going from a 14 HR and 46 RBI rookie during this American debut in 2022 to a stellar 32 HR and 103 RBI during this past season.  All of the sudden the Cubbies find themselves without a middle of the order bat for an extended period of time.

Right now the immediate substitution for them is former long time Met Michael Conforto who had joined Chicago on a minor league free agent deal in February after he was found still looking for a new job.  After having been named one of baseball’s most overpaid players it was a mighty fall and in 2025 he was miserable, hitting just .199 with 12 HRs and 36 RBIs.   

Going into 2026 for his age 33 season it’s unlikely he’s going to rebound in a big way.  When you consider what the Cubs lost from Suzuki, turning to Conforto for left handed power replacing their former outfielder’s right handed stick doesn’t seem to add up.

Here’s where things get truly interesting.  Sitting on the Mets bench right now is young right handed power hitter Mark Vientos whose third base job was taken away by Bo Bichette, whose first base job was taken away by Jorge Polanco and whose DH job was taken away by Brett Baty.  That leaves the poor fielding and poor running Vientos as a distant replacement option either against a particularly tough southpaw pitching or as a pinch hitter.  Neither role is going to give him the playing time necessary to ramp up to the kind of numbers he posted in 2024 nor even what he did in 2025. 

The question that arises is if the Cubbies would be interested in replacing missing right handed power from Suzuki with right handed power from Vientos?  If so, the return in the deal would not necessarily be huge but another outfielder or some prospects previously not seemingly within probability of happening might now be on the table.

One article even proposed sending a combination of Vientos and demoted infielder Ronny Mauricio to Chicago for starting pitcher Jameson Taillon.  The turning 34 year old right hander earns $18 million in this final year of his current deal and would become the Mets’ seventh starting pitcher (or sixth if you now classify Sean Manaea as a reliever).  He’s not a bad return but doesn’t seem to be a particularly good fit for the team’s needs. 

Instead the team might instead look to obtain one of the pair of young Cub outfielders Matt Shaw or Kevin Alcantara.  Shaw has just over 1 year’s aggregate of minor league ball with 35 HRs and 113 RBIs to accompany a .301 batting average.  Alcantara has been farmed out to AAA but has shown both power and speed with 65 HRs and 63 SBs over about 4 full seasons worth of minor league ball while hitting .278.  At 6’6” he’s got the size that appeals to many baseball savants though Shaw has accomplished more. 

RVH - The Call: Carson Benge Isn’t Just On The Team… He’s The Right Fielder

 

Good morning.

The Mets didn’t just make a roster decision this week. They made a statement.

Carson Benge is not heading to Syracuse. He’s not easing in. He’s not a fourth outfielder. He’s the starting right fielder on Opening Day.

And that tells you everything you need to know about where this organization is right now.

This Isn’t a Spring Story. It’s an Organizational Signal. Prospects don’t break camp as starters by accident. Especially not in a front office run by David Stearns.

This is not about:

• A hot three weeks in March

• A need to fill a temporary hole

• Or a “let’s see what we have” approach

This is a conviction decision.

The Mets believe:

• The bat is playable now

• The approach will hold

• The athleticism translates immediately

More importantly:

They believe the team is better with him on the field today than waiting another two months.

Why Benge Fits This Version of the Mets

All winter we talked about the shift:
→ Younger
→ More athletic
→ More positionally flexible
→ More complete across the roster

Benge checks every one of those boxes.

What he brings isn’t just upside.

It’s functionality:

• Can handle multiple outfield spots

• Brings energy and range to the corners

• Doesn’t require protection to stay on the field

• Adds a different offensive look to the lineup

This is what a “system-complete” roster looks like. Not just stars. But pieces that actually connect and extend the system.

The Timing Matters (More Than People Think)

If you read the schedule breakdown earlier this week, you already know:

April is a win-banking window.

This is not the time to:

• Carry developmental passengers

• Hide players in platoons

• Or wait for upside to show up

This is the time to:

• Put your best 9 on the field

• Take 2 of 3 from teams you should beat

• Build the early cushion

Starting Benge now tells you:

He increases their probability of winning games immediately.

Not in June.

Now.

What Success Actually Looks Like

This is where expectations need to be set correctly.

If you’re looking for:

• 25 HR pace out of the gate

• Immediate middle-of-the-order production

You’re watching the wrong thing.

What matters early:

1. Competitive At-Bats

• Is he working counts?

• Is he avoiding chase?

• Is he forcing pitchers into the zone?

2. Defensive Stability

• Clean routes

• Confident reads

• No hesitation

You don’t need highlight plays.

You need no-damage plays.

3. Game Speed Adjustment

• Can he handle sequencing?

• Can he adjust within at-bats?

This is where most young players either settle in or drift.

The Real Risk (And It’s Not What You Think) The risk isn’t that Benge struggles. Most rookies do at some point.

The risk is: organizational hesitation if he does. If this is truly a conviction decision, then the runway has to be real.

You don’t make this move and then:

• Pull him after 30 ABs

• Start mixing and matching

• Turn it into a soft platoon

That breaks both the player and the signal.

What This Says About the Mets

Zoom out.

This isn’t just about Carson Benge. This is about a front office that is:

• Willing to trust its evaluations

• Willing to accelerate when the system supports it

• Willing to align roster decisions with competitive windows

This is how good organizations operate. Not reactively. Decisively.

Final Thought

Opening Day is about more than the lineup card. It’s about identity.

And putting Carson Benge in right field on Day 1 tells you exactly what this team is trying to be:

Faster. Younger. More dynamic. And most importantlY: Willing to win with its next core, not just wait for it.

We’ll see how it plays. But the decision itself?

That part is already clear.