Mack's Mets

9/5/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - LHSP - Nicholas Carreno

Nicolas (or Nicholas) Carreno is a 20-year-old left-handed pitcher in the New York Mets’ minor league system, currently with the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. Background

Full name: Nicolas Gabriel Carreno
Born: June 9, 2006, in Barcelona, Venezuela
Physical: Listed at 5'10", 155 lbs (reports note he has added some weight); bats/throws left
Acquisition: Signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates as an international free agent in January 2023 (reportedly for a modest bonus as an undersized LHP sitting 89-91 mph at the time). Traded to the Mets on July 30, 2024, in exchange for LHP Josh Walker.
mlb.com

He spent time in the Dominican Summer League with both organizations, came stateside in 2025 (mostly FCL Mets with a late promotion to Low-A St. Lucie), and broke out in 2026.2026 PerformanceHe dominated at Low-A St. Lucie (roughly 1.94 ERA over 41.2 IP with 58 strikeouts in 11 appearances/6 starts) before a mid-June promotion to High-A Brooklyn.

2026/A+ Brooklyn:

3-3, 4.47 in 58 innings. 66 Ks, 41 BBs.

He pitched this gem in early August:

Carreno Gem

At both levels this year, opposing batters are hitting a sad .186 vs. Carreno.
Repertoire and DeliveryCarreno throws from a slingy three-quarters arm slot with a long arm action. His arsenal is primarily a three-pitch mix (no changeup currently; an earlier attempt to develop one appears paused). Data from his Low-A time (where Statcast tracking was available) shows:

Four-seam fastball (~28% usage): Averages ~95 mph (tops out at 98). Around 2,500 RPM spin and ~15 inches of induced vertical break. Generates some whiffs (~29%) but can be hittable when left in the zone due to command inconsistencies.
Two-seam/sinker (~28% usage): Averages ~94.5 mph with more arm-side run (significant horizontal break, ~13–14 inches) and less ride than the four-seamer. Better results against hitters than the four-seamer in limited data.
Slider (~40–44% usage — his most-used and best pitch): Averages ~86 mph (low-80s to low-90s range) with high spin (~2,680 RPM). Features sharp, cutter-like action (modest horizontal movement of 1–5 inches). Excellent whiff rates (~44% in Low-A), strong results against hitters, and better command than his fastballs. Especially effective vs. left-handed batters.
tjstats.ca

Stuff grades from available tracking place the slider around average-to-plus (Stuff+ ~105), with the fastballs closer to average. Velocity has jumped significantly since signing.Prospect OutlookScouting reports view him as a potential high-leverage lefty reliever long-term due to his size, two-pitch (or three-pitch with limited separation) profile, and command/control issues, though he has started games effectively.

Baseball America graded him as a 45/High in a May 2026 update (fastball 50, slider 55, control 40), noting improved strike-throwing and effectiveness vs. lefties. He has appeared in some Mets organizational prospect lists in the 25–30 range midseason.

ETA estimates vary but often point toward 2027–2028, potentially faster if moved to the bullpen.

Tom Brennan - A Look Back at 2025 Tyler Rogers, Greg Soto, Ryan Helsley Trades

Major Leaguers Who Came to Queens…

…and Pitched Like 10 Year Olds…

…and Then Left and Went Back to Normal

The Mets thought they were making superb mid-season bullpen moves at the 2025 trade deadline for Messrs. Helsley, Soto (Greg), and Rogers.

I liked them myself.

Those moves did not work out, and that is a drastic understatement.

The trio allowed 45 total runs in 76 combined innings, about 20-25 more runs than David Stearns thought they’d allow in that many innings.

Helsley (0-3, 7.20) repeatedly choked, allowing a run per inning.

Soto (1-3, 4.50) was very hittable, with a .308 BAA.

Rogers had a 2.30 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but even he was 0-3.

The trio was also 0 for 5 in save opportunities.

My nuns loved report cards, and they were objective graders.

Combined, those 3 got an F from the Sisters of No Mercy.

I mean, 1-9, and 0-5 in saves? What the heck, guys?

Stearns probably said, “WTF?”

Groping for an answer, in looking back, I have just a one-word answer:

QUEENS

You see:

Helsley pre-trade in 2025 had a respectable 3.00 ERA, and was 3-1 with 21 of 26 in saves.

Soto pre-trade was not as good, at 0-2, 3.96, but brought in with the hope that he’d pitch better in a pitcher-friendly Queens park.

Rogers, pre-trade in 2025, was a superb 4-3, 1.80.

Prior to the trades, my favorite ruler-wielding nun graded them B+.

At the risk of getting whacked with a ruler, I’d have said A-.

Then…naturally…a post-trade disaster.

This season? All three moved on.

Helsley with the Orioles was 0-4, 4.15, but was a fine 8 of 9 in saves before going on the IL with dreaded elbow discomfort.

Through Sept. 2, as I wrote this, the other two had done this:

Soto - Pittsburgh, 6-4, 3.17 with 14 saves and a .190 BAA.

Rogers - 2-2, 1.90 ERA in 64 outings.

This year, the 3 ex-Mets combined get a B+, Sister Mary Smackem said.

I’d have said A-. Sister saw my point and didn’t whack me.

So, you, the reader, must answer two questions:

1) What caused the collective choke job by this Mets trio in late 2025?

2) What can be done to avoid future total choke jobs like this?

Go ahead. Answer.

Sister Smackem left her rulers home, so Liam Neeson says you are safe to comment.

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP - Emilio Obispo

Emilio José Obispo is a young right-handed pitching prospect in the New York Mets organization. Born August 14, 2006, in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, he is listed at 5'11", 150 lbs, and bats/throws right-handed. The Mets signed him as a free agent to a minor-league contract on May 16, 2024. He is currently 20 years old (turned 20 in mid-August 2026) and pitches for the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. Career path and performance

2024 (age 17): Dominican Summer League (DSL Mets Orange) — 0-5, 3.47 ERA in 9 starts, 36.1 IP, 41 K (10.16 K/9), 12 BB (2.97 BB/9).
Missed essentially all of 2025 after being placed on the 60-day injured list in early May (activated in November).
2026: Strong return. With Low-A St. Lucie Mets (Florida State League): 5-2, 2.03 ERA in 14 games (10 starts), 53.1 IP, 54 K (9.11 K/9), 24 BB, .216 opponent average.
Promoted to High-A Brooklyn on July 28.
baseballsavant.mlb.com

He transitioned successfully to a more full-time rotation role in Low-A and has shown the ability to miss bats while limiting hard contact at times. Walk rates have been higher in 2026 than in the DSL, and command has been noted as a variable (especially in some High-A outings).Repertoire / arsenalPublic tracking (e.g., Baseball Savant game reports from his 2026 stateside debut and other appearances) shows a five-pitch mix:

Four-seam fastball
Sinker
Slider
Curveball
Changeup

Velocities in tracked outings have ranged from the low-80s (offspeed/breaking) up to about 97 mph on the fastball. Early reports from his Low-A debut noted the fastball sitting 93–95+ mph with a “nice breaking ball” and a solid variety of pitches overall. Observers have highlighted that he trusts his full arsenal, will throw any of his pitches in different counts, keeps the ball down in the zone at times, and attacks hitters aggressively. Multiple breaking pitches that he can land for strikes have drawn positive comments, along with the fastball velocity for his age and frame.

Overall:

Obispo is a developmental arm with upside as a starter or multi-inning reliever. He has shown strikeout ability, a diverse arsenal, and the ability to dominate at lower levels after returning from injury. Further refinement of command and continued physical development (he is still listed at a slight 150 lbs) will be key as he progresses. He remains a lower-profile but intriguing name in the Mets’ pitching pipeline as of late August 2026.

9/4/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - OF - John Smith III

John Smith III (full name: John Ceaser Smith III) is a right-handed hitting/throwing outfielder in the New York Mets organization. Basic info

Born: November 19, 2003 (age 22), in Brandon, Florida; hometown Apollo Beach, Florida.
Height/weight: 6'1", 200 lbs.
Drafted: 2026 MLB Draft, 19th round (overall pick 570) by the Mets out of the University of Central Florida (UCF).
Signed for a $50,000 bonus.
spotrac.com

College careerHe took a multi-school path before starring at UCF as a senior in 2026:

High school: Lennard High School; ranked as the #13 outfielder in Florida by Perfect Game. Batted .397/.638/.603.
Pensacola State (junior college): Strong numbers, including a .382/.452/.688 slash with 12 HR as a sophomore in 2024.
South Alabama (2025 junior year): .314/.412/.466 in 49 games.
UCF (2026 senior year): Second Team All-Big 12. In 49 games (47 starts, all in LF): .322/.383/.574 with 12 HR, 49 RBI (team lead), 13 doubles, 65 hits, and a long on-base streak. He showed power and contact, with some standout multi-homer games.
ucfknights.com

Scouts noted raw power, bat speed, and above-average running ability. He also played in the Cape Cod League (Falmouth Commodores) in 2025.Professional career (so far)Signed July 20, 2026, and moved quickly through the system:

Started in the Florida Complex League (FCL Mets).
Promoted to Single-A St. Lucie Mets (late July). Had a strong debut with multiple homers (including his first pro homer) and showed power (exit velocities over 108 mph on some HRs).
Promoted to High-A Brooklyn Cyclones on August 18, 2026. He got off to a hot start there (e.g., multi-hit games, reaching base frequently).
As of late August 2026, overall minor-league numbers were around .305/.373/.915 OPS with 3 HR in limited action
milb.com

He’s a toolsy college senior/outfielder with power potential and speed who has advanced quickly after being a late-round pick. He’s not yet a high-profile top prospect in the system but has impressed with early pro production and rapid promotions.

His nickname is “John John”

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Players to Watch During September

Little by little the Mets are going to test drive some players for the 2027 season. While you can’t draw definitive conclusions from 30 days of September play, it certainly will add a modest level of interest for awaiting the end of the highly forgettable 2026 season.

The first newcomer to see regularly should be Nick Morabito. He’s an interesting player with excellent base running speed and modest power but did not have a memorable season in Syracuse. A career minor league .281 hitter who has stolen as many as 59 bases in the 2024 season, his high water mark in home runs is 13 this year. Some feel excited to have two potential stolen base kings in left and right field while others feel Morabito tops out as a different style Tyrone Taylor replacement as at best a fourth outfielder.

Recent call up Dylan Ross is viewed by many as a potential closer with elite strikeout stuff. In 36+ innings pitched in Syracuse this year he notched 45 strikeouts. For his minor league career he has successfully fanned 131 in 95+ innings pitched. The other shiny number is 67 hits allowed in those same 95+ IP. Where it gets a bit questionable is on his walks allowed. By allowing free baserunners his WHIP is an average 1.385. With just a single inning of major league experience no one really knows which Dylan Ross will emerge this final month of the season.

The third interesting guy to watch is starting pitcher Justin Hagenman who is going to provide extra rest for Christian Scott who appears to be wearing down and the Tylor Megill clone named Robert Stock who could throw a gem or a turd without any pattern of consistency. A look at Hagenman’s minor league numbers are interesting but puzzling. He’s split time between relieving and starting. He does give up many more hits than Ross, but he’s shown very good control with 503 strikeouts and just 136 walks over a log of 487+ innings pitched. The WHIP number is therefore better than what you see from Ross. No one is sure what will be seen from Hagenman.

Some of the others are already making their next season cases known. Nate Lavender is highly likely to be the first southpaw to helm the pen after the dual departures of A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley. When he comes into games people are not reaching for their antacids. Right hander Daniel Duarte owns a 2.19 ERA thus far for the Mets at the major league level.

Others in the pen are more work in progress. Celebratory reliever Jefry Yan, recently returned Austin Warren and Jonathan Pintaro are all north of 4.00 with their ERAs. Recovering reliever Dedniel Nunez is north of 5.00. They are the ones who most need to step up during September to factor into major league play in 2027.

Then there are the bench players like Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and others who have not established themselves for any Mets future.

MACK – THOUGHTS & OTHER TIDBITS

Thoughts

Normally, I write about minor leaguers in the minor league section of this weekly feature. Jonah Tong deserves more. He’s worked his arse off to earn a September promotion. His ERA for the past two months was under three. He aced August. But instead, Cohen’s Nightmare promoted another scrub. Forget the negative sign you send to Jonah… no, think about what all your prospects will think about how you operate. The undynamic duo of Cohen/Stearns is proved daily that big money doesn’t guarantee big results. It takes some baseball intelligence behind spending baseball money. If not, you’re just throwing Benjamins that don’t stick.

I see that the owners and the union were throwing spears again at each other; however, Commish Rob Manfred said last week that the league wants to play in 2027. I’m sure the players do too. The only problems are both sides agree to less than shite. Manfred said both sides are meeting regularly so there is that. Manfred also admits there is “work to do”. Ya think?

The main sticking point seems to be a “salary cap”. The Player’s Association (MLBPA) wants to increase this minimal major league salary. They also want less restrictions to the luxury tax threshold. Lastly, further enhance the pre-arb bonus pool. That’s all? Well, actually there are also current disagreements on service time, the International draft, and TV revenue. Right now, they can’t agree on how many sugars in each coffee.

This all runs out at 11:59pm ET on December 1^st. It’s now September. I’m turning the seatbelts on because I am anticipating a bumpy ride.

You do have to wonder if the Mets had a chance to sign the free agent this week that had gone .310, 32-EBH, 42-RBI in the minors this season. Well, I guess we will never know because Jarred Kelenic is now a Yankee. Why do I think this Mets move that proved to be the right one, could still turn out to be the wrong one?

Please do me a favor. Don’t put a lot of pressure on Nick Morabito this September. Let him just get into the routine of coming to the park each night, warming up, checking if he is in the lineup, and, well… you get the picture. It’s mentally a lot different playing in front of 30,000-40,000 people each night instead of 5,000-10,000 in AAA-ball. And he will be facing some of baseball’s finest pitchers. No, leave him alone. You just want a utility outfielder with the ability to play late innings and pinch run a little to develop here.

Prospect Color ChangesDSL-Mets RHSP Abner Meza from BLUE to RED

Minor Tidbits

Speaking of infielders, the Mets have another one… there is this 22/year old that they drafted right out of high school in 2023. This was someone heading to UCLA, but the Mets offered him around half a mil over slot and he signed on the dotted… He had a wonderful year in 2024 for St. Lucie (.288), followed in 2025 by a learning process in Brooklyn. And then the dreaded injuries began. First to the lower back, followed by the right shoulder. 2026 has only produced limited at-bats, but a fair share are producing hits. His name? Boston Baro. His goal? Finish the season healthy and accept a winter assignment somewhere. O, I ask you… what if Baro goes all Bonzo Dog Band and hits off the chart for the rest of this season plus 2027. Where do we put him and who does he replace?

I have mentioned “The Aiden Boys” a few times lately. Let’s concentrate here on the 21/year old out of the University of Texas. Aiden Robbins became a million-dollar baby after being drafted this year in the 3^rd round. Did he have the cred? Well…

2004 – Seton Hall: .302/.368/.512, 6-HR

2005 - Seton Hall: .422/.537/.652, 6-HR

2026 - Texas: .333/.426/.696, 24-HR

You have here strong bat speed, power, and contact skills, with capable centerfield skills, average speed (but aggressive running). Probably will wind up a corner outfielder. K% has gone up with increased power, which he is working on now. Through Thursday, 68-AB, 17-K, 25.0%. Me? I believe he heads the list for top outfield prospect in the chain.

You do remember that I was the original President of the Chris Suero fan club? Heck, I was President before he shortened his name! I couldn’t help notice that he went 2-4, R, HR (18), 4-RBI on Friday night. Is he back? Don’t bother looking for any great splits here. It generally has just been a suck year for Suero. What you can walk away with is some overall positive things that still stands out in a bad situation… 77-hits, 20-doubles, 18-home runs, 68-walks, 33-stolen bases, only 22 years old, additionally can play first and center as well as catch. Yes, a catcher with 33-SB. These are pretty good stats for someone that has had a horrible season. My guess is we’ll see better in 2027. I will bet my presidency on it.

Question… how many current Mets minor leaguers have played at five different levels this season? I don’t have the time to research this, but there is a good chance that the answer is just one and that would be 2B/SS/LF, D’Andre Smith. He also is leaving his best for the highest level, currently going .342/.426/.610/1.035 for AAA-Syracuse. Trust me. If one of these newbie prospects that arrived with the trade deadline were producing these numbers at this level, you would have called for his promotion come the beginning of this month. Don’t count this guy out. He’s only 25.

It seems that the team’s number one prospect is coming up with new ways every night to distance himself away from the other ranked Mets prospects. On Sunday, IF Jefferson Rojas had three hits, that included both a 2-run home run and a 2-run double, totaling to four runs batted in. His stats over the last 11 games were 14-H, 6-HR, 14-RBI, 9-XBH. Folks, this is gonna be a good one…

Davial Hurtado is relieving again. Probably an innings pitch limit thing. It happened on Tuesday and it was as good as most of his starts: 2.0-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 3-K. The ERA lowered to 1.49. You would think this would earn him a promotion to AA-Binghamton, but the season is just about over. Still, enjoy this real deal starter who will definitely open up 2027 in the B-Met rotation.

Minor league Mets starters continue to finish strong this season. Binghamton Mets righty, Noah Hall, put up a stat line on Wednesday of 5.0-IP, 0-R, 3-K. He’s been erratic at best; however, he did produce a 0.39-ERA in July (4-G, 2-ST). Hall turns 26 next March, so where he goes and what he does is up for debate. By my estimate, there are potentially seven B-Met pitchers with starter experience trying to fill two, possibly three slots in AAA-Syracuse next opening day. Hall is too talented to cut, but could easily end up in a future pen.

9/3/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - MIF - Sammy Stafura

Sammy Stafura is a 21-year-old shortstop/infielder and New York Mets prospect (currently ranked around No. 9–11 in the system by various outlets, including MLB Pipeline’s No. 11). He is a local product from Cortlandt Manor in Westchester County, New York (about 35 minutes from Citi Field). He grew up a die-hard Mets fan—his childhood favorites included David Wright, José Reyes, and Ruben Tejada—and has described joining the organization as a “dream come true.”

He attended Walter Panas High School, where he was a standout (Gatorade New York Player of the Year as a senior, with huge high school numbers including a .562 average, 10 HRs, and 27 SBs one year). He was committed to Clemson but signed professionally instead. Background and path to the Mets

Drafted: 2023 MLB Draft, 2nd round (43rd overall) by the Cincinnati Reds. Signed for an over-slot bonus of about $2.5 million.
Traded to Pirates: July 2025, as a key piece (along with Taylor Rogers and cash) in the deal that sent Ke’Bryan Hayes to Cincinnati.
Traded to Mets: August 3, 2026 (near the trade deadline), from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Luke Weaver and cash considerations. The Mets sent a substantial amount of cash to help cover Weaver’s remaining contract. He reported to High-A Brooklyn (Cyclones) shortly after.
mlb.com
2026 - A+/Brooklyn - 78-AB, 2-HR, 5-RBI, .231/,337/.397/.734

Physical profile: 6'0", 188 lbs, bats and throws right-handed.2026 performance and toolsStafura broke out offensively in 2026, particularly with power. Pre-trade (mostly High-A Greensboro, plus some time at Low-A Bradenton while dealing with earlier injury/rehab), he was one of the minors’ standout power-speed guys—among a small group with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

Combined numbers around that period included a slash near .276/.367/.593 with 20 HRs, strong RBI totals, and 20 SBs, with a roughly .960 OPS. He mashed in July (reports of 14 homers in a short stretch).

Career minor-league line (through much of 2026) sits around .250/.36x/.42x with 35 HRs and 80+ steals across his pro seasons. Since joining Brooklyn, production has cooled some (early reports around .246 with limited power in his first couple of weeks), which is common after a trade and travel disruption.

Scouting notes:

Plus athlete with top-end speed (plus or better runner), solid-to-plus defensive tools at shortstop (range and arm that “jump off the page,” per Mets execs; experience at second base as well; athleticism could theoretically play in center field).

Power has taken a step forward with swing adjustments and added bat speed (above-average to bordering on plus raw).

Contact/swing-and-miss remains an area to refine. He has described a mental approach of believing he’s the best player on the field every pitch. Evaluators note he has some of the loudest tools in the Mets system.

He is still early in his development (High-A level at age 21) and has moved organizations twice already, but the combination of athleticism, up-the-middle defense, emerging power, and local roots makes him an intriguing addition for the Mets’ farm system.

RVH – The Battle Between Four & Six

The Mets lost to Tampa Bay Tuesday night, but their strange September race actually became more difficult.

Because the Mets exceeded the second Competitive Balance Tax surcharge threshold, their highest 2027 selection will move back 10 places unless the lottery actually awards them one of the first six picks. If they draw a top-six selection, that pick is protected and their second-highest pick moves back 10 places instead.

Six of the 18 non-playoff clubs receive lottery selections; 16 clubs are currently eligible. Finishing fifth or sixth among eligible teams does not protect the Mets’ first pick. It only establishes their odds of receiving a protected pick. The penalty never disappears; the question is which Mets pick absorbs it.

The Mets are sixth in the raw standings and fifth among eligible clubs, with an estimated 63.6% probability of drawing a protected top-six selection. The inverse is equally important: they currently face approximately a 36.4% chance that their first pick falls outside the top six and moves back 10 places.

The board through Tuesday’s games:

Raw rank	Team	Record	Lottery status	Top-six odds
1	Colorado	53–86	Eligible	88.2%
2	Angels	53–86	Eligible	88.2%
3	Athletics	53–86	Eligible	88.2%
4	San Francisco	57–82	Ineligible	—
5	Kansas City	62–77	Eligible	74.0%
6	Mets	62–77	Eligible	63.6%
7	Detroit	63–75	Eligible	52.0%
8	Seattle	65–74	Eligible	40.0%
9	Cincinnati	66–73	Eligible	29.3%
10	Washington	67–74	Eligible	20.3%
11	Minnesota	67–72	Eligible	16.1%
12	Pittsburgh	68–71	Ineligible	—

Kansas City holds fifth on the prior-season-record tiebreak. San Francisco received the No. 4 selection in the 2026 Draft Lottery; revenue-sharing payors cannot receive lottery selections in consecutive years. Pittsburgh is ineligible after receiving lottery selections in two consecutive drafts, the limit for revenue-sharing recipients. Both clubs retain their raw reverse-standing positions but cannot win one of the six lottery selections. Only an actual lottery result from No. 1 through No. 6 protects the Mets’ first pick.

Handicapping the Mets’ Competition

The lottery table establishes the stakes. This second table compares the six teams most capable of affecting the Mets’ position, using recent performance, run differential, playoff proximity and remaining schedule.

Team	Gap	Run diff.	L10	WC GB	H/A left	SOS/rank*
Mets	—	-56	4–6	11.0	10/13	.510/3
Kansas City	Tied	-86	7–3	8.5	14/9	.511/2
Detroit	+1.5	+42	2–8	7.0	12/12	.482/5
Seattle	+3.5	-70	4–6	5.5	13/10	.414/7
Cincinnati	+4.5	-112	5–5	7.0	11/12	.579/1
Washington	+5	+23	6–4	7.0	9/12	.496/4
Minnesota	+6	-33	4–6	3.5	10/13	.473/6

SOS means strength of schedule. The first number is the combined winning percentage of each club’s remaining opponents; the second is its relative rank among these seven teams, with No. 1 representing the hardest schedule.

Kansas City remains tied with the Mets but has won seven of ten. Its -86 run differential identifies a legitimately poor team, although 14 of the final 23 games are at home, where the Royals have played much better. Kansas City still looks slightly likelier than the Mets to escape this neighborhood.

Detroit is the immediate danger, only 1½ games ahead after another blowout loss to Minnesota. Yet its +42 run differential and favorable schedule suggest the Tigers are considerably better than their record. They remain my most conflicted handicap.

Seattle’s Tuesday win expanded its cushion to 3½ games. The Mariners are only five games behind Houston in the AL West, 5½ out of a Wild Card and have this group’s easiest remaining schedule. That combination makes Seattle increasingly unlikely to fall below the Mets.

Cincinnati also won Tuesday, but remains my greatest longer-term concern. The Reds are 4½ games ahead, own a -112 run differential and face the hardest schedule in the group by a wide margin. Their cushion is meaningful, but hardly secure.

Washington has won six of ten and now leads the Mets by five games. Its +23 run differential offers some comfort, but the Nationals face a difficult schedule and finish at home against the Mets, leaving one potentially decisive head-to-head series.

Minnesota has won three straight and moved six games ahead. The Twins are only 3½ games out of the Wild Card and have a favorable schedule. They appear more likely to play their way upward than fall into the Mets’ range.

My danger ranking remains Cincinnati, Detroit, Washington, Kansas City, Minnesota and Seattle.

The Mets have the second-hardest schedule in this group. Their September 1 loss dropped them to 62-77 and reduced their run differential to -56. Thirteen of their final 23 games are on the road, providing some natural protection, although the club’s improved energy and young-player contributions make a late winning stretch plausible.

The ideal September remains possible: the young Mets play well while nearby clubs keep winning. We should never root against development. But remaining positioned for the strongest possible chance of drawing an actual top-six selection is one tangible advantage still worth salvaging from this season.

Sources: MLB standings; MLB Draft and Competitive Balance Tax rules; Tankathon lottery estimates and remaining schedule strength.

Calculations apply the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Because that agreement expires after the 2026 season, the structure of the 2027 Draft and its lottery will ultimately depend on the terms of the next agreement.

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