10/15/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHRP - Carlos Guzman

 


MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHRP - Carlos Guzman

 Guzmán is a 28-year-old right-handed relief pitcher (born May 16, 1998, in Maracay, Venezuela; 6'1", 210 lbs, R/R) currently in the Mets’ minor-league system (primarily Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies in 2026, with some Triple-A Syracuse time). He has no MLB appearances. The Mets signed him as a minor-league free agent in November 2023 (and re-signed him after he elected free agency). He previously pitched in the Tigers and Cubs systems. Pitch Arsenal / RepertoireRecent notes (including a 2025 Binghamton/Syracuse game notes summary) list his pitch mix as:

  • 4-seam fastball: 92–95 mph (mid-90s; earlier reports also described it in the mid-90s range). Prospect grading has rated it roughly average/plus (55/55 on the 20–80 scale).
  • Cutter: 86–88 mph.
  • Sweeper (or slider variant): 82–85 mph. Earlier grading treated the breaking ball (slider) around 55/55.
  • Changeup: 83–85 mph (graded around 50/50).

Older scouting notes (from his Tigers days and when the Mets signed him) described a mid-90s fastball with a slider and changeup. He has transitioned more fully to a multi-pitch relief look that includes the cutter and sweeper. FanGraphs-style pitch-type data from recent seasons shows usage of four-seam, cutter, and secondary offerings (exact percentages vary by level/year and are limited by minor-league tracking). Command has been graded below average (around 40), which is a common limiter for upper-level success. He generates solid strikeout rates (often ~9–11 K/9 in recent Double-A stretches) but can issue walks.
  • 2025: Strong AA year (2.95 ERA, multiple saves in ~43 IP for Binghamton) with limited AAA time.
  • Career minors: Solid strikeout rates and mostly mid-3.00s to low-4.00s ERAs as a reliever after earlier starting experience.
He has also pitched in the Venezuelan Winter League (Tigres de Aragua) with strong results in some seasons and appeared on Venezuela’s 2026 WBC radar as a non-MLB arm.

“Plus repertoire” context: The fastball and breaking ball have graded as roughly average-to-plus (55s), with the changeup more fringe-average. It is a workable multi-pitch relief mix (especially with the added cutter/sweeper), but command and consistency against higher-level hitters have been the main hurdles to a sustained MLB opportunity. 

RVH – The Season Is Over. Now the Real Work Begins.

 

The 2026 season ended September 27 in Washington, a 6–4 loss to the Nationals.

74–88. Last place in the NL East.

The payroll was a record. The finish was the worst since 2017, and the first last-place finish since 2003. But the season didn't end the way it started. After the deadline sell-off, the kids got their chance, Lindor and Soto got healthy, and the Mets played winning baseball. David Stearns called that stretch "real," and he backed it by making Andy Green the full-time manager through 2029.

That matters.

But it's over.

What happens next won't be decided by September momentum. It will be decided by the unglamorous work of the next seven weeks.

The Mets' offseason doesn't begin with free agency.

It begins with subtraction.

Remember the Distinction

The 26-man roster is who plays. The 40-man roster is who the organization is willing to protect, pay, and store.

Right now, the 40-man is full. And as many as four more players are coming back to it. Shortly after the World Series, Jorge Polanco, Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, and Justin Hagenman come off the 60-day injured list, and they count again.

The Calendar:

Window

Event

~5 days after World Series

60-day IL players restored to 40-man; option decisions

Mid-to-late November

Rule 5 protection deadline

A few days later

Non-tender deadline

December 1

CBA expires

December

Rule 5 Draft (if it happens)


The protection and non-tender deadlines fall before the CBA expires. The Rule 5 Draft falls after. In 2021, the lockout canceled the Rule 5 Draft entirely.

The deadlines will happen. The draft may not. The Mets won't bet on that.

The Math

Step

Count

40-man plus returning 60-day IL

44

Likely Rule 5 protections

+6

Room for free agency and trades

+2 to 3

Spots that must be cleared

~12 to 13


A dozen names, gone before the Winter Meetings.

That's the real offseason.

Who Gets Protected?

Must protect: Jefferson Rojas, the organization's No. 1 prospect.

Should protect: Gary Gill Hill, Jacob Reimer, Jack Wenninger, Zach Franklin, Ben Simon.

On the bubble: Ryan Clifford and Chris Suero. Clifford was supposed to be the next homegrown bat; a stalled year at Syracuse says otherwise. Suero's versatility is real, but a third catcher is exactly the kind of spot a crowded 40-man can't afford.

The long list of eligible players isn't the failure. Every organization exposes dozens. What the list reveals is the problem: former top picks and top prospects who stalled on the way up.

The Obvious Exits

Some decisions make themselves. Robert Stock, Cristian Pache, and Christopher Morel are all out of options. Eric Wagaman, Hayden Senger, and Christian Cairo are depth, not answers.

None of those moves will surprise anyone.

The interesting decisions are somewhere else.

The Game Is Played at the Margin

The 40-man isn't decided by the stars. It's decided by the players at the edge. That means how they were used, what they cost, and whether they can be stored.

Player

2026 role

2027 options

The clock

Jefry Yan

Shuttle lefty

2 (likely)

None; fully flexible

Daniel Duarte

Leverage innings

Unclear

Keep him; earned the spot

Austin Warren

Swing reliever

0

Opening Day or waivers

Mark Vientos

Bench bat

0

November: arbitration

Ronny Mauricio

Late recall

0

March: spring roster


Duarte, Warren, and Yan all earned a look. Duarte stepped into setup work after the deadline and was nearly unhittable for weeks. Yan, after a twelve-year trip through the minors, struck out hitters at an absurd rate.

But earning a spot and holding one aren't the same thing.

Warren is out of options. Keeping him locks a bullpen spot before camp even opens. Duarte is different: whatever his option status turns out to be, he finished the year strong enough that the Mets should protect him and live with the roster cost.

Yan's value is performance plus flexibility, with real upside.

Warren's value has to be performance alone.

Two Ways Out

Vientos and Mauricio may both be gone by Opening Day. But they're on different clocks.

Vientos is a November decision. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time. Tendering him means a raise for a player who has struggled for two straight seasons, and Stearns didn't mention him in his end-of-season remarks. The Mets can non-tender him, trade him, or tender him and cut him cheaply in spring.

Mauricio is a March decision. He's out of options and likely still pre-arbitration, so tendering him costs almost nothing. He homered three times in the final two games, and when asked, Stearns left the door open for him to compete for a bench job in spring.

Translation: carry him through the winter, or trade him before someone claims him for nothing.

Same possible outcome. Different mechanisms.

The Real Question

The Mets finished strong. That's real.

But September doesn't set the roster. November does.

Stearns has already said the rotation needs reinforcing, first base wasn't good enough, and there are options beyond Marcus Semien at second. Every one of those additions needs a 40-man spot that doesn't exist yet.

A 40-man roster isn't a list. It's a statement of belief about who matters in 2027.

Over the next seven weeks, the front office has to make that statement, one marginal decision at a time.

Sources: FanGraphs RosterResource; Baseball-Reference; MLB.com, AP, and SNY coverage of David Stearns' end-of-season press conference; Mets On SI; 2026 transaction reports.

Final qualification: Official 2026–27 offseason dates have not been published. Option status is reconstructed from 2026 transaction records; confirm against official rosters. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, and a new agreement could change the Rule 5 Draft, termination pay, and other rules discussed here.


Paul Articulates - Think it through


Freddy Peralta pitched six innings of shutout ball on Tuesday night, giving up only four hits and striking out six with a fastball that topped out at 99.4 mph.  If that invokes feelings of pain for you, you are not alone.  Peralta’s mysterious performance drop while with the Mets is still very much unexplained.  The Milwaukee all-star who tanked for the Mets this year at 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a significantly reduced fastball velocity was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays at the deadline because he showed no potential to help the club.  Once in Tampa, he did a complete turnabout, pitching to a 3.25 ERA and going 5-2 in 10 starts.

Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Ryan Helsely, Cedric Mullins, Gregory Soto; the list of good players that significantly underperformed in Queens goes on and on as you look back over the years.  Each one invokes a painful memory of crushed expectations and a team left pondering how to patch all of the holes.

Of course, we immediately blame the General Manager for the decision to bring these players to New York, but we can all acknowledge that the names were all once associated with success.  In the case of Luis Robert Jr, it doesn’t take perfect hindsight to realize that the guy had injury problems all during his career, so it was easy to project more.  But with a Peralta, there is not a smoking gun.  People are still asking Freddy and all the coaches that surround him what has changed.  There are really no good answers.

On Monday I wrote about my favorite subject, the mental aspect of this game.  It holds true here as well.  There is something about coming to THIS city and playing for THIS team that cripples confidence in many players.  Is it the weight of the heavy expectations among Mets fans to finally reach the ultimate prize of a world series victory?  Is it the combined stress in a locker room filled with players facing the same oversized objective?  

Whatever it is, the ownership needs to recognize that there is a quality within a player that must be present before that player is added to this team.  Statistical dominance is not enough.  Fan accolades, seasonal awards, championship rings, none of them are enough.  All the successes of the past can be obliterated by a different environment and a different form of situational pressure.  Mental toughness matters, and I am talking about  95th percentile mental toughness, not the league average.

A look at the current Mets roster reveals some players that seem to have it.  

Carson Benge began the year under the spotlight of being a highly touted prospect and hit .192 in April.  That is the pinnacle of adversity.  He responded by surging to the point that he is a serious candidate for rookie of the year based upon a .313/.394/.479 September.  

AJ Ewing came to the team without the same high expectations, performed so well that he quickly found himself in the same crosshairs of media attention, slumped, and then recovered with a .309/.380/.481 September of his own.  Both of these players were relentless in the field as well as at the plate.  

Francisco Lindor overcame huge fan backlash after his slow start and infamous “thumbs down” incident by becoming a steadying roster influence and a clutch hitter in games that mattered.  

Juan Soto seems completely unfazed by media attention, fan reaction, or negative team momentum.  He just gets up and rakes.

Somewhere in the mental makeup of these players is the quality that the Mets need in all nine positions of the lineup and five slots in the rotation.  They don’t all have to hit .300 or clock radar gun speeds of 100mph.  They just need the ability to summon the will and the clarity of mind to perform when the going gets tough.  They need to play for the love of the game and the thrill of the competition.  Maybe the scouts and the front office execs are not close enough to observe what this looks like.  Maybe they should hire Keith Hernandez, Al Leiter, or Mike Piazza to screen potential acquisitions – they had this quality so one would think they could recognize it in another player.

When the front office decides to trade or DFA a player, they need to know if they are giving up someone that “has it” even if their numbers are down, or someone that “doesn’t have it” regardless of their numbers.  Mets fans love to lament the trade that gave away PCA, but a similar trade sent away Jared Kelenic who had similar hype and he turned out to be an entirely different value.  I expect that the difference lies within the helmet, not anywhere else.

I will be watching closely as the re-opening of trade season (end of WS) and free agent signing window (5 days after end of WS) arrive to see what the Mets have in mind.  Think it through, guys.  The fan base is getting restless.


10/14/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - OF - John Bay

 


MACK – Let’s Revisit - OF - John Bay


John Bay is a New York Mets minor-league outfielder (prospect), an undrafted free agent signed in July 2025.

  • Position: OF (primarily RF/LF)
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • Height/Weight: 6'1", 217 lbs
  • Born: May 16, 2001 (age 25), in Shattuck, Oklahoma
  • College: Austin Peay State (after transferring from Oklahoma State); also played in the Cape Cod League
He went undrafted after strong college seasons, then signed with the Mets as a nondrafted free agent on July 23, 2025. He made a solid pro debut in 2025 (St. Lucie Mets at Single-A and Brooklyn Cyclones at High-A), appeared in the Arizona Fall League, and was noted for taking advantage of the opportunity. In 2026 he spent most of the year with High-A Brooklyn before a July 21 promotion to Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies, where he remains active. 

2026 - A+/Brooklyn: 271-AB, 13-HR, 44-RBI, 18-SB, 35-BB, ,232/,360/.458/.818

AA/Binghamton: 131-AB, 3-HR, 17-RBI, 11-SB, 20-BB, .252/.363/.366/.729

 He’s shown power, on-base skills, and baserunning ability while climbing the system relatively quickly as an undrafted signee. 



Reese Kaplan -- Will the Mets Actually Sign a Top Slugger for 1B?


OK, so think ALL the way back to the day Steve Cohen and his checkbook took over the joke of  a franchise from the financially strapped Wilpon family.  For a brief period of time it appeared as if the Mets would have their Steinbrenner moment and have the resources to invest in the best of the best instead of trying to make due with second, third or fourth tier alternatives. 

Sometimes it worked.  Think Juan Soto, Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, Luke Weaver and perhaps another name or two at a lesser level.  Often it did not when the club decided to gamble on lightning in a bottle types who couldn’t find a spark or chronically injured athletes who were not even able to take the field or AAAA types who would never start on a contending team.

Roll forward to the upcoming season which may or may not happen depending on the progress of the CBA negotiations.  Towards that uncertainty many are expressing a dismissive attitude towards 2027 and writing it off as a prelude to 2028.  Towards that end it is possible that making a sizable investment in a long term contract that might start off on a minuscule number of games for 2027.

They say sometimes when others zig it is prudent for you to zag.  Using that approach in thinking, look past the in-house options for first base and bypass the end-of-their-career free agents who once were good but whose best days are very much in the rearview mirror.

So the ultimate zag might indeed be looking past the other 29 major league team rosters and widen the lens far enough to see what’s possible from outside the USA.  Just as the White Sox made the expensive gamble to spend big on Japanese free agent Munetaka Murakami who gave them 35 HRs and helped them vault from last place to the post season.  It was just a two year contract for $34 million total.  Food for thought, huh???

This year there is a slugger by the name of Teruaki Sato who won the Japanese league’s triple crown with a .306 average, 39 HRs and 106 RBIs.  That’s not a bad follow up to his 2025 MVP season.  Going into the 2027 MLB season for however long it is he will be turning 28 and although the lefty banger is primarily considered a third baseman there is ample belief he could cross the diamond to play first. 

So what would it take to land Sato in Queens?  The Mets (including David Stearns) have already traveled to Japan to scout the man and at least up until now have not thrown in the towel on consideration of offering him a contract.  It won’t be cheap.  

Though he earns just $3.3 million for the Hanshin Tigers many estimate he could threaten the $200 million mark for multiyear American contract.  For a point of comparison, the deal the Mets never even tried to equal on Pete Alonso was for $155 million over 5 years, an annual rate of $31 million.  

For the younger Sato $200 million might mean $25 million annually for the next 8 years.  You could work on higher annual rates and shorter terms but it’s the range he’s predicted to get.

So if you are the Mets do you try to swing for the fences to land a conspicuously appealing free agent who also addresses a major roster need?  Or instead do you hope that some combination of Jorge Polanco, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Christopher Morel, Billy Amick and/or Ryan Clifford will deliver just as much?