Paul Articulates - Run the option

The MLB deadline for teams and players to exercise contractual options has now passed, and there is a substantial list of names because contracts now are frequently negotiated with options to use flexibility as an enticement.

With the CBA expiration date of December 1st looming, the decision to exercise or decline an option becomes more complicated.  

Will things like salary caps and floors change the dynamics of the free agent market?  Of course!  So if you are a free agent and the rules change, you head into uncertainty.  This did not necessarily sway the bulk of the decisions though, as there were more declined options (21) than exercised options (17).  

There also was one unique option, which was a vesting option that goes into effect if the player meets certain performance criteria.  This was accomplished by Yandy Diaz of the Rays who earned his $13M salary for next year by achieving 500 at-bats and ending the year healthy.  Personally I like this type of option because it incentivizes performance and health maintenance.  Take note, David Stearns!

The following list of players and options gives more insight into the names that have just entered the free agent market and those that have shut the door.  

Many starting pitchers are on the list, which may be intriguing to a Mets front office that needs to add in that category.  Unfortunately, Sandy Alacantra, Corbin Burnes, and Drew Anderson were opt-ins so they are not available as FAs.  Michael King, Sonny Gray, Lucas Giolito, Dustin May, Nick Pivetta, Nick Martinez, and old friend Griffin Canning were opted out and are now available.

Other interesting names included on the list were the expected team option declines on former Mets Ryne Stanek, Luis Robert Jr., Gary Sanchez, and Canning.   Eugenio Suarez had his $16M option declined by the Reds, which would have been interesting news had Bo Bichette not passed on his opt-out.

Of the 21 names that did not have their options exercised and have returned to the greater free agent market, there are not many other than King and Gray that look like big plays for the Mets’ needs.  

Stearns may see others as potential depth pieces, but with the current crop of almost-ready minor league players in the system at middle infield and outfield positions, the only need for “depth” would be at first base or a relief pitcher.

Keep your eye on the market, as the dominoes will begin to fall as soon as the top of the market (Skubal) makes a decision.

MACK – Christian Cairo

 

 

The Mets announced that they signed infielder Christian Cairo to a major league contract, which included a slot of the 40-man squad.

Cairo (full name Christian Miguel Cairo, born June 11, 2001) is a 25-year-old right-handed batter/thrower and the son of longtime MLB infielder Miguel Cairo. He has no major league experience. Cleveland drafted him in the fourth round in 2019; he spent most of his career in that organization before signing a minor-league deal with the Phillies for 2026 (they added him to the 40-man roster in spring training and optioned him).⁠

The Mets claimed him off waivers from the Phillies in mid-September 2026 after Philadelphia designated him for assignment.

2026:

    AAA/PHIL - 406-AB, 4-HR, 35-RBI, .227

    AAA/METS - 7-AB, 0-HR, 1-RBI, .429

He posted a strong walk rate (92-BB/525-PA) but limited power.⁠

He is a versatile defender with experience at second base, shortstop, third base, and the outfield positions, plus speed and on-base skills. He has minor-league options remaining. The split contract (majors vs. minors pay rates) followed by the DFA is a common roster maneuver intended to make it more likely he clears waivers and remains in the organization as depth.⁠

He is expected to compete for a utility/bench role in 2027 spring training, depending on the Mets’ roster construction.

Tom Brennan - My Top 1 Thru 5 Mets Prospects; Don’t Forget Tylor Megill; And More

 

THE CRÈME DE LA CRÈME! 

These top 5 players are all high pedigree, given where they were drafted (or given the size of the non-draft international bonus they received). 

All 5 should live up to that pedigree and impact the NY Mets in 2027. 

Some high picks are busts, but these 5 look GOOD…all to me are shining brightly.

All five could be Mets starting players by opening day 2028. 

It will be up to management’s shoehorn to make room for them, for that to happen.

1) Jefferson Rojas:

“Who’s number one”?

Mets traded both Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to get Rojas. Another infield Jeff.

The Cubs signed him for a cool $1MM and started him in the DSL in 2022.

Who is Rojas, skills-wise? 

A real pro hitter, with good pop, and he will be a good future (I.e., 2027) major leaguer. He cracked 12 HRs and drove in 36 runs in just 35 games in Mets AA and AAA. 

He only had 6 AAA games, making it more likely that he will start out in AAA in 2027 before his MLB debut. 

But, with a high draft pick at stake to the team whose player wins 2027 ROY, he may play with the Mets right away, to give him a real shot at ROY.

Defense is solid and versatile. 

Speed? 21 steals, and just 14 errors at SS, 2nd, and 3rd in 2027. 

He is virtually ready. If not completely ready. Of that, I am virtually sure.

2) Mitch Voit 

I am extremely high on first round draftee Mitch Voit. How high? 

“AJ Ewing high”. 

MLB Voit debut? I’d peg it for mid-2027. Another possible player to get a full year in the majors next year, in the chase for the lucrative ROY award.

Turned 22 on Sept 30, so he plays all of next year at age 22. 

He hit just .273, but much of that was in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn? It sucks to hit there. 

Ignore all Brooklyn numbers. Always.

So, he got promoted to AA and in 29 games there, he hit .347/.430/.517. 

Some say he had an unsustainably high BABIP (.371 for 2026) , and I probably agree, but his speed likely boosted his BABIP a lot. Also, he was also scorching hot until he was HBP in August, missed some games, and was cooler thereafter, so who knows. The slash line in AA may be the real deal.

He is blisteringly fast, with 65 of 76 career steals in 127 pro games.

Defensively at SS and 2B, just 12 errors, and 70% of his games were at SS, so that is an excellent defensive first full pro season.

So, defensively, he is MLB ready.

Me? I am “Mitch Voit ready”.

I expect, though, that like AJ Ewing in 2025, he will get a 2027 month or two in the minors, then get called up.

3) Billy Amick 

Amick has C4 explosives in his bat. 

“Power Supreme,” Terry Collins might say.

Amick fans a lot, sure. Go ahead, be picky. But he came into 2026 with less than 350 pro at bats, like a barely broken in car, and so spending all of 2026 at AA and AAA makes his high K rate seem quite expected, and quite improvable. Solution? More PAs.

The 60th overall pick in 2024 hit an astounding 15 HRs and drove in 36 runs in 36 post-trade games in the Mets organization. And 38 HRs and 108 RBIs overall in 122 games. Project that over a full 162 games and you get 51 HRs and 141 RBIs. 

Are you still nitpicking? 

Need I remind you that Kyle Schwarber fanned 220 times in 156 games? And 1,029 times in his last 5 seasons. But…

Hit 45 HRs too. And 101 rockets over two seasons. 

And he is deemed a top echelon MLB slugger. Maybe this is Amick’s prototype.

Amick had 74 walks and HBPs in those 122 games, which works out to 100 BBs over 162 games. Much better in that regard than Mauricio and Vientos.

Billy had just 9 errors in over 100 games at first and third base. He can field, but he won’t steal more than the occasional base.

My guess? Ready to break into the bigs in mid-to-late 2027. 

Could his ceiling be Kyle Schwarber? Maybe. I dunno. But…Amick is…

Another guy I would move the Citi Field fences in for. 

P.S. At the beginning of November, the Mets website listed an updated top 30 prospects. Where did Billy Amick fall in the top 30? Answer: he didn’t. I don’t care. I’m sticking with Billy at number three.

4) Jonathan Santucci 

Santucci is still Superb, as the laser lefty keeps getting better. 

He led the entire minors in Ks in 2026, with 163 in just 125 innings, a great ratio for a starter.

In both 2025 and 2026, he start those seasons shakily, his first flaw.  

So, I would definitely leave him the minors until May or June next year. 

He got 8 starts in AAA late in the season, and posted a 5.24 ERA with 6 HRs allowed in 34 innings there. But, prior to AAA, he had allowed just 13 HRs in 209 pro innings, a fine rate. 

He is rated to have a 55 fastball and curve ball and a 60 slider. Impressive.

His second flaw? 

He allowed 25 runs in 24 innings 5 thru 7 in games in 2026, so he must be able to go deeper into games without getting torched. 

Both flaws will assuredly be fixed.

I still see him as more of a starter than a star reliever in the big leagues. 

Santucci was a 46th overall pick in 2024, so he has high expectations.

From me, at least. 

I think he will be Superb. The Mets do need another Jerry Koosman now. Santucci? Maybe.

5) Emilien Pitre 

The man with the French nom, from Repentigny, Canada, was the 58th overall pick in 2024.

Pitre, who will be 24 in 2027 and is quite ripe, talent-wise, hits like a young Jeff McNeil.

Pitre presumably means “squirrel” in French. C’est incroyable.

Man, can he get on base!  He loves freebies.

87 walks and HBPs in 118 games, which projects to 120 over 162 games. 

He also can hit, and not fan much, giving him a dandy 2026 slash line of .306/.420/.427. 

20 games in AAA, where his slash was still solid: .260/.357/.370.

Power is not really his game, but he still has some pop. He had 35 XBH in those 118 games, which is not shabby. 

Decent speed, and defensively, just 8 errors at 2B in 97 games, and none in several games at 3B, so his glove is MLB ready. He can also handle SS in a pinch.

Major league ready? 

Probably, and if Semien weren’t in the infield, I’d say definitely, but more seasoning time could only help Pitre. I still think if Semien is not released, and if he wasn’t owed so much, he would clearly be jettisoned, then Semien IMO should be converted to a first base platoon with Jared Young, until Amick is ready, and otherwise, when not playing 1B, Semien can be a utility player in 2027. Or, at least, for part of it.

Get these 5 kids up to the Mets as soon as possible.

I can envision this line up in 2028:

1B - Amick

2B - Pitre

SS - Voit

3B - Jefferson

LF - Soto

CF - Ewing

RF - Benge

C - TBD. Torrens/Alvarez, for now is acceptable.

DH - Lindor

Brings a big smile to to my face. 

Yours, too?

So ends my Top 30 prospects series. 

Except to say that I will add a 31-40 and 41-50 breakdown in two subsequent articles.

Please note that some teams, like the Brewers, appear to have even better top 5 prospects. 

Had the Top 5 not been boosted by three trade deadline prospect acquisitions, the Mets’ top 5 compared to the Brewers top 5 would have fallen very far short.

ON ANOTHER TOPIC… 

DON’T FORGET HIM…

YES, TYLOR MEGILL LIVES

I saw this in a late October article:

“Megill wrapped up this summer with live bullpen sessions at the Mets’ rehab facility in Port St. Lucie, Fla., sitting 96-97 mph with his fastball and topping out at 98.”

Says he plans to come to spring training at 100%. Like a normal season.

Me? I am excited to see what a healthy Tylor Megill can do.

Hopefully like his big brother Trevor. 

The Cubs had dumped his brother Trevor. The Brewers hit gold with him.

Trevor closed out the Brewers’ 2026 World Series on the mound. Nice.

ON YET ANOTHER TOPIC…

WHY ARE THE METS ADDING THESE MARGINAL ARMS TO THE 40 MAN?

I’ve seen the Mets add Messrs. Anderson and Ohl to the roster and a few more guys perhaps that I missed. Marginal guys. But apparently, with at least some major league potential for the 2027 pitching staff as fill-ins.

After scratching my head for a while, since I know that the men will probably add at least four guys to their now–completely-full 40 man roster, I realized that perhaps the Mets will sign them to a major league contract of some sort (perhaps with a costly AAA salary if pitching in the minors) at minimum wage, and then run them through waivers to get them off the 40 man roster, so that they would be available for next year.

We can all fantasize that the Mets will never need marginal pitchers to build up the Mets pitching depth, but the days of using only 15 men to pitch during the season (e.g. 1969 and 1986) are long gone. I believe that the Mets over the last two years used, on average, around 40 pitchers. To do that, you gotta stock the shelves. You likely will find these two guys stocked on shelves in aisle 14 in the Syracuse Home Depot.

Sometimes, you get lucky with these fill ins. The Mets once upon a time stocked the shelves with RA Dickey. He turned out to be the Cabbage Patch doll of his day. 

Not to digress, but every once in a while, I openly wonder why more guys don’t look the master the knuckleball. RA did, and earned about $40 million doing it. He would’ve earned about $39 million less if he hadn’t mastered the knuckleball. At last I checked, in today’s money that 40 million would’ve been about 70 million, and, I don’t know, that sure seems like a lot of money to me. If I were a marginal picture, I would try to master it myself.

Reese Kaplan -- In This Swiss Cheese Roster, Which Hole is First?

Gather a group of Mets fans into a room and there is very little they will likely agree upon except mourning the loss of southpaw Jerry Koosman.  

Going into the 2027 season the Mets have some very clear needs to address in the attempt to extricate themselves from the basement but here no one can readily agree pick a single one of these several areas and prioritize as the number one priority.

Starting Pitching

If the season started today the Mets rotation would included Gold Glover Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton, Christian Scott, Sean Manaea and one of the handful of starter number five contenders that include Tylor Megill, Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers and even Kodai Senga.  While you could make the case that the top three are pretty good choices, it starts to get pretty murky after that.  Both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are in contract walk years so it is entirely possible to trade one or both to another club not looking for a long term financial commitment (particulary if the Mets pay down some of the salary).  As a result many are advocating that the Mets step up to find one or two veteran starting pitchers (including a true ace) to take the mound every fifth day. 

Relief Pitching

Here the picture is extremely bloody.  First you have the question of who closes games for the Mets.  Devin Williams has face planted two straight seasons in the city of New York while the Mets remain on the hook for his salary through 2028.  Laying aside the deferrals, he averages $17 million per season and it is pretty common practice in baseball that salary dictates playing time.  Then there is the matter of Kodai Senga who shockingly pulled himself from the brink of a DFA by becoming the emergency closer during Wiliams’ injury departure.  Right now in what is likely his final year in a Mets dugout many are not convinced what he showed in August and September is replicable yet at the same time not a single fan wants to see him in the rotation ever again.  Still, you can’t argue with his sub 3.00 ERA as a closer.

After that the picture gets even less clear.  During the great pitching selloff in August the Mets pretty much gutted their bullpen with A.J. Minter, Huascar Brazoban and Luke Weaver all being sold off for a passel of prospects.  That’s a trio of formidable arms that have not truly been replaced.  Yes, the got some good innings out of Austin Warren, Daniel Duarte and Nate Lavender.  Others trotted out there including Dedniel Nunez did not help at all.  It is clear that this segment is in major need of reinforcement.

1st Base

Ask anyone around baseball and they will all applaud the highly unexpected job done by fringe player Jared Young during 2026.  The problem is that between the USA and Korea he’s never established himself as a regular and now on the wrong side of 30 it is highly unlikely to conclude he’s showing his true self in what most regard as an outlier year.  Jorge Polanco was mostly injured and even worse at the plate.  Mark Vientos was somewhat better with the stick but on the field at first he was even worse than he was at third while continuing to struggle mightily against right handed pitching.  Many want to see the Mets come up with a starting capable and viable solution here but unless they engineer a trade they will either have to spend VERY big to land Teruaki Sato or they will hope for a platoon partner who can be the next Jared Young.  Of course, if you ran the front office you still have that expensive sub Mendoza hitter on the roster, too.

2nd Base

In one of yet another Stearns disastrous roster moves he brought in a clearly over the hill Marcus Semien to fortify the defense when it became clear that his bat wasn’t the only aspect of his game that had deteriorated significantly.  The Mets are on the hook to him for another $46 million between 2027 and 2028.  Unlike Manaea and Senga, the club has already sent signals that the expensive keystone is not likely going to start again after his .215 season.  The problem is that unless they plan to shift A.J. Ewing to second base for 2027 they don’t have a minor league replacement waiting in the wings other than perhaps Ronny Mauricio.  Many feel addressing the second base issue should be at or near a top need to be addressed.

Designated Hitter

The black hole for the New York Mets who even got subpar performance out of veteran hitter J.D. Martinez who is now transitioning to become a professional pickleball player.  Obviously the very fragile Jorge Polanco could fit here but other than transitioning Juan Soto to strictly a hitting role, it would appear there are no viable in-house options to make this spot in the batting order better than the embarrassment it has become. 

Of course, many feel the number one priority is a General Manager, but that's a rant for another day. 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP - Gary Gill Hill

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP - Gary Gill Hill

Gary Gill Hill (full name Gary Anthony Gill Hill) is a 21-year-old right-handed starting pitcher in the New York Mets’ system, currently with their Double-A affiliate, the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

mlb.com

Background

• Born September 20, 2004, in New Rochelle, NY (Westchester County).
• High school: John F. Kennedy Catholic Preparatory School in Somers, NY.
• Drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 6th round (194th overall) of the 2022 MLB Draft out of high school; signed for $597,500 (above slot). He had been a two-way player earlier and committed more fully to pitching later in high school.
• Local New York kid who returned closer to home via trade.
• Listed at 6'2", 160 lbs (some reports note he has added strength over time), bats/throws R/R.
• He has also pitched for Great Britain in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
  baseball-reference.com

Path to the MetsThe Rays developed him through their system (FCL, Single-A Charleston, High-A Bowling Green, Double-A Montgomery). On August 2, 2026, the Mets acquired him (along with OF Aidan Smith and SS Émilien Pitre) from the Rays in exchange for RHP Freddy Peralta. He was assigned to Binghamton and activated shortly after.

mlb.com

He ranks as the Mets’ No. 19 prospect (MLB Pipeline).Career Stats Overview (Minors)

• Career (through 2026): 21-20, 3.97 ERA, 417 IP, 362 SO, 1.25 WHIP across ~85 appearances (mostly starts).
• 2024 (Single-A Charleston): Breakout year — 4-4, 3.15 ERA, 108.2 IP, 105 SO, 1.11 WHIP. Earned Carolina League Pitcher of the Week, Post-Season All-Star, and Baseball America Low-A All-Star honors.
• 2025 (High-A Bowling Green): 7-8, 3.82 ERA, 136.2 IP, 107 SO, 1.16 WHIP.
• 2026: A+/Binghamton - 5-ST, 2-0, 3.76, 1.22, 26.1-IP, 5-BB, 28-K
  ballysports.com

He’s generally a strike-thrower who pitches to contact more than pure strikeout stuff, with good ground-ball tendencies at times, though home runs have been an issue at higher levels.Repertoire / Pitch MixGill Hill throws a deep, varied arsenal (often described as a four- or five-pitch mix) from an upper three-quarters arm slot. 

Scouting grades (MLB Pipeline 2026): Fastball 50, Cutter 50, Slider 50, Changeup 45, Control 60, Overall 40. 

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Key pitches:

• Fastballs (pair of them, 93–95 mph, touching 96–97): Four-seamer (flatter, used up in the zone for carry/whiffs/called strikes) and two-seamer/sinker (with armside run for weak contact and grounders). Velocity has improved with added strength and mechanical tweaks.
• Cutter (upper 80s / mid-to-upper 80s): Sharp, tight break; acts as a bridge between the fastball and bigger breaking stuff. Can run in on lefties or away from righties.
• Slider / bigger breaking ball: Includes a sweeping slider (or slurve/sweeper variation) with more lateral movement, effective for swings-and-misses (especially noted in recent starts). Earlier versions included more curve-like shapes.
• Changeup (mid-80s range): Fade and separation; helps neutralize left-handed hitters.

He has excellent command/control for his age (often ~2 BB/9 or better in stronger seasons), competitive maturity, and the ability to mix pitches well from similar release points. 

He’s not a pure power arm with a dominant plus pitch yet, but the depth of the mix, athleticism, and feel for pitching give him a solid chance to stick as a starter. 

Development focus has included arm-slot consistency, pitch separation (especially fastball variants), and refining the breaking balls into distinct offerings (e.g., firmer cutter-slider hybrid + bigger sweeper). 

baseballsavant.mlb.com

Overall profile: 

Athletic, projectable righty with a “kitchen sink” approach, strong control, and upside as a mid-rotation or swingman type if a pitch grades out higher. Still young and developing in AA after the midseason trade.

Steve Sica - The 2015 Mets were painfully close to a World Series

This past Sunday was the 11th anniversary of the Mets losing the World Series to the Kansas City Royals. It also remains their only game played in November. 

The 2015 Mets, in my opinion, will be remembered fondly. A team that came into the season with a lot of young talent and that fans just wanted to be relevant wound up running the table and going all the way to the World Series. 

It's arguably the closest the team got to a World Series trophy since 1986. 2000, they came close, but in 2015, the Mets had the lead late in games one, four, and five, but couldn't finish the job. A little bounce here, or a bloop there, and it's the Mets hoisting that World Series trophy.

Game one was winnable; Familia gave up the game-tying home run to Alex Gordon in the ninth inning. The Royals would win in extra innings. Game two, the Mets were overmatched. Game three, the Mets came out with a vengeance and blew out the Royals.

The series was 2-1 KC, but the Mets had a lead in the eighth inning of game four. Michael Conforto hit two home runs, the Mets were rolling, and it looked like they'd even up the series, with a chance to go up 3-2 and Harvey on the mound tomorrow.

We all know what happened next. Daniel Murphy's magic ran out; he booted an easy ground ball, the Royals' "death by a thousand paper cuts" offense came back, and won.

By game five, the odds were long. Down 3-1, and even if the Mets win, it's back to Kansas City for games six and seven. Still, though, Harvey was pitching, and there was a sense of pride in not letting the Royals celebrate at Citi Field. Harvey pitched the Mets to a lead in the ninth inning. Terry Collins made the ultimate decision to let him start the ninth, much to the crowd's delight.

The choice wasn't wrong. Harvey deserved a shot to finish what he started. What happened next was an error in judgment from Collins. He would walk Lorenzo Cain to start the ninth. Any baseball mind tells you to get out there, pull your starter, and let your closer handle the rest. Collins didn't. He stuck with Harvey. Was it as bad as Grady Little leaving Pedro on the mound in game seven of the 2003 ALCS, as he got mauled by the Yankees, blowing an eighth-inning lead? Not quite, but the results were just as disastrous. 

The next batter doubled, getting the Royals within one. Collins pulled Harvey, but it was too late. Duda couldn't make a clean throw home; the Royals tied it and would go on to win it in the 12th. The Mets are still waiting for another shot to play in a World Series.

It's interesting to me that 20 years later, we obsess and wrongly criticize Carlos Beltran for taking strike three. However, Beltran was fooled by a filthy breaking ball and carried the Mets that postseason. Terry Collins seemingly gets let off the hook for some very basic managerial mistakes that cost the Mets the game.

I wasn't Collins' biggest fan when he was the Mets' Manager. Even during their Cinderella run to that World Series. He won me over the next year in his hot-mic argument with the umpires when the Mets sought revenge on Chase Utley. One of the greatest displays of a Manager sticking up for his players. 

Alas, 2015 goes into the painful folder of Mets memories: it was fun while it lasted, but WHAT IF?

Cautious Optimist -- Laddering Up: Part II (Starting Rotation)

 

The 2027 pitching staff

I have read a number of pieces, here and elsewhere, praising the Mets potential starting rotation. The list of pitchers most often named in these pieces is some combination of 

McLean, Scott, Thornton, Tong, Manaea, Santucci.  Others occasionally mentioned include Wenninger and Megill.

It's a stretch to claim that any five or six of this group makes for a top tier starting rotation: a big stretch.

What's the standard for a top tier rotation?

Frankly, the answer depends on what the modern day game demands of its starting pitchers.  

There are a number of ways of answering that question.  Let's focus on innings/start and ERA, while recognizing that there are other plausible standards.

Innings and their distribution:  On average, teams play about 1450 defensive innings during the regular season.  Starting pitchers accounted for between 800 and 900 of those innings (let's peg that at 850 for our purposes) on average/team.   That would leave around 600 innings to be covered by the bullpen, again on average/team.  

Assume teams carry 13 pitchers (the max allowable), 7 of whom are relievers.  This means that although teams are almost always said to have a 5 man starting rotation, they have 6 starters.  Even that is misleading.  Better to say that they have 6 spots taken by starters, and usually 8 or more pitchers who are primarily starters occupying those 6 spots over the course of a season.

We can therefore calculate two different innings/starter baselines: 850/6 or 850/8.  

The latter would give us 105 innings per starter; the former 140ish.  Typically, the distribution varies among starters.  

Rarely, however, do starters throw more than 200 innings/season.  In 2025 only 3 did, and in 2026 only 2 did.  

The 3 in 2025 were Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet and Christopher Sanchez.  They followed that up with 160, 30 and a bit under 200 (not counting playoffs), respectively.  No additional comment required from me.

It's enough to note that a team would be fortunate to have half of its starting rotation cover roughly 170 innings and the rest of 8 or so covering the remainder in varying degrees, reflecting their standing from 4-8.  These are just approximations.

What would we have reason to expect in terms of ERA for a top tier rotation?

The average ERA for starting pitchers in MLB last year was. 4.07.   Only 11 teams had ERA's below that number as the average for their starters.  Of those 11 teams, only two failed to make the playoffs.  Of the teams that did make the playoffs, three teams exceeded the average, but just barely.

How About Them Mets?

The Mets starters did relatively poorly when it comes to both ERAs and innings/starter.  

The starting rotation combined for an average ERA of 4.57, a half a run worse than league average.

The Mets starters combined for an average of 4.88 innings per outing which translates into a total number of innings covered by the starting staff of 791, or almost 60 innings short of the league average.

That was last year and its fair to say the Mets tossed a few starters over the year who are not mentioned among those likely to make up the bulk of next year's rotation.

So let's focus on the five pitchers most often named as constituting the core of next year's presumably top tier rotation:

The results are mixed: promising ERAs, less than promising innings pitched leading to questions about projectability re: innings and ERA

Pitcher	ERA	(IP)
Nolan McLean	3.16	179.2
Zac Thornton	3.42	84.1
Jonah Tong	3.82	30.2
Christian Scott	3.85	110.0
Sean Manaea	4.78	150.2

The top four had very good ERA's but only McLean threw an impressive number of innings. Indeed, McLean is the only pitcher in the group who averaged more than 5 innings per start.  

The numbers on Manaea are, by my lights disqualifying.  It is not rational to believe that Manaea -- even as the 5th starter -- could be part of a top tier starting rotation.

The numbers on Thornton and Tong are hopeful, but represent way too small a sample size on which to draw an inference -- about either the total number of innings they would pitch or whether their ERAs would hold up under higher work loads.  

If we supplement Tong's 2026 performance with his 2025 similarly late call up numbers, the evidentiary base begins to look a bit less promising.

What inferences do these stats warrant?

In discussing the Mets generally I have suggested we apply a modest criteria for judging whether our confidence in projected performance is rational.  

I like to think in terms of continuums and in order to do so I favor setting out the two extremes.  In this case, one extreme is marked by there being no reasonable or rational doubt about a player's expected performance.  Of course we can be proven wrong, but we are talking about rational, evidence based levels of confidence ex ante.  

At the other end of the spectrum rest players one should have no rational basis for predicting success.  Of course, we can be proven wrong, but again we are making judgments ex ante, given the evidence we have. If any of those who fall on this end of the spectrum succeed, it's best to think of it as a prayer being answered: a miracle.

I apply this approach first to position groups or teams taken as a whole to get an idea of what is reasonable to expect overall performance to be and which groups need to be bolstered and why, and which groups pose less pressing problems.

Here's how it works

Rational confidence in a position group or team's expected level of performance depends first on the percentage of the players who are question marks, and then on the number of those you have to count on the question marks being answered favorably, and finally on the number of those that you have grounds that support a favorable answer as compared with those who you have to 'hope', believe or 'pray for a miracle' to base a favorable answer on. 

Here's how it applies in practice.  Let's use the Mets 4 (current) outfielder group - Soto, Ewing, Benge and Morabito -- as our example.  

Remember two things.  We are trying to assess the degree of our rational confidence in what we can expect next year from the group as a whole.  We are doing this in part to discover areas of potential improvement and the urgency, if any, of devoting limited resources to making those improvements. 

Our continuums end points are marked by 'No doubt or question' at one end, and 'need a miracle' at the other.

OK, going on the evidence we have, it is rational to take Soto as a given.

Benge cannot be taken as a given, but his performance provides plenty of reason for believing that he very likely to succeed next year. The question surrounding him have to do with just how good he will be next year, not whether or not he will perform well.  

Another way to put it is to say that it would be very surprising if he doesn't at least come close to his performance of this past year and not at all surprising were he to surpass it.

Soto is the paradigm of a 'no question' player.  Benge is the paradigm of a 'question' player on the brink of becoming a 'no question player.'

Ewing is a bit more difficult IMHO.  If he learns to take better routes to the ball -- and there is no reason to think he won't -- then there are no questions about his defense or base running.  

There are some questions about his ultimate hitting prowess, but if you believe that he performed well enough last year over a reasonably large sample  size, then there is no reason to believe that he won't perform in the same range this year - or better.  

Ewing is a question mark player, nowhere near becoming an overall 'no question mark player', but close to being a no question mark defender and base runner, but with more evidence needed to judge his offensive promise.

Morabito is a real question mark.  Nothing he has done so far should convince you that he will be a sound all around contributor next year, but then again there is nothing to suggest that projecting that he will  requires a leap of faith.  He is somewhere between where Ewing is and requiring a miracle to be answered, much closer to the former than the latter, but not close enough to bar looking to see if there is a better option to be had at a lower cost. 

Overall, one should be reasonably confident that the core 4 in the outfield will provide a positive stable force for good for next year's Mets.  On the other hand, no one should believe that the outfield cannot be improved, but also that doing so should not be a major priority.  

Back to the projected starting pitchers

In a nutshell, McLean falls somewhere between Benge and Soto -- closer to the former than the latter.  Very very good, but not quite beyond question excellent. High rational confidence in near All-Star Level performance, less confident that he is a top 5 Cy Young candidate.

Scott falls somewhere between Benge and Ewing, closer to Ewing.  Scott hasn't shown yet that he can provide innings at a high level.  His pitch counts get too high too quickly, and he is still working back from the surgery.  These factors hold him back from falling in the Benge category.

Thornton falls somewhere between Ewing and Morabito, closer to Ewing on promise, closer to Morabito on sample size.  His stuff isn't his calling card.  His commitment to his craft, his grit and his confidence in his stuff are.

Tong's ability to get a lot of swing and misses is like Morabito's speed on the bases.  It's a great skill.  

Morabito's challenge is getting on base;  Tong's is throwing enough strikes. 

We've all seen what happened to Senga when hitters were patient and able to lay off the ghost fork. Why were they able to lay off the ghost fork this year, but not in previous years.  The answer is simple and has two elements.  First his ghost fork works off his fastball and he didn't throw enough strikes with his fastball.  Second, and independently, the ghost fork works when it starts out in the zone.  If it starts out below the zone as it so often did, it is easy to lay off it, whether you confuse it with a fastball or not. 

Which brings us to Tong .  Everything he throws works off his fastball. He needs to throw more stikes with his fastball which he had trouble doing last year, and he has to increase his swing and miss rate with his fastball.  When he does both, his change-up becomes devastating, because even with his new release point, it comes out of the same slot and looks like a fastball, but now has even more break in it than it had previously.  It is not confined to movement in just one plane.

He can then add a horizontal or diagonal moving pitch as an out pitch working off both of his key pitches.

He's still a pitcher in transition who needs much more fine tuniing in his pitches and more innings under his belt.

When it comes to both Morabito and Tong, it is not rational to expect success early in the season, but it is reasonable to hope for it by the second half.  

The difference between Tong and Thornton is that Tong holds the promise of being able to rise to the level of Scott or even McLean.  Thornton does not.  At best Thornton can rise to the level Stearns thought he was getting when he resigned Manaea.  

Returning to Manaea for a moment, the truth is that if you take Manaea's entire career into account and appropriately weight what he has done with the Mets, hoping that he will be a credible 5th starter on a top tier staff is tantamount praying for a miracle.

In short, it is not rational to be confident that the Mets have the core of a first tier starting rotation; certainly not if you expect the starting rotation to anchor the team's success going forward.  

It's not unreasonable to believe in the possibility that they will be a top tier rotation.  At this point, I would say that on the available evidence, the staff the Mets currently have provides reason enough to be hopeful, to keep the faith, but to be prepared to hedge your bets. 

In short, praise and predict all you want, but hold off a bit on putting your money where your mouth is.  Laddering up this year will help ensure that a large window will open for success beginning in 2028.

In Part III, I'll set out what steps and options the Mets have to ladder up next year in their starting rotation, and set out some of my preferred pathways forward.  In Part IV I work through various pathways to a bullpen worthy of the starting rotation.

And while I am all for having the owner spend to shed contracts and players who have no future on the Mets,  I promise to be very mindful of the costs he would have to bear to turn the starting rotation and bullpen into the anchor the team needs and can rely on.

I think you'll be surprised by the reasonableness of the expenditure that true excellence will cost us over the next five years or so.

In Part V, I make the case that in spite of the initial costs of clearing the books the Mets can attain top of the league performance for a sustained period at what I promise you will be real value for the dollars spent.

Stay tuned.

We're on our way home!