3/2/26

Paul Articulates – Three days in spring


As a lifetime baseball fan, there is something about the first trip to the ballpark each year that stirs the emotions.  I had the opportunity to visit spring training last week for three games and really enjoyed the warm weather (I’m from New York), the crack of the bat, and the pop of the leather that evokes fond memories of past baseball seasons.

As usual, I had a keen eye for what was happening on the field to see if I could find insight into how the team would evolve as they prepare for opening day.  Today I will share some insights into what I saw.

Day 1- Friday at the Cardinals: The Mets put together an impressive run-producing show, winning 14-3.  

Pitching

Freddy Peralta’s first start of the spring didn’t disappoint as he threw three flawless innings.  Devin Williams was almost perfect in his inning, except for one mistake that was crushed into the batter’s eye over the 410 mark in center.  Good time to get that one out of his system.  

The most interesting was the three inning outing from Justin Hagenman.  If you recall, Hagenman was the guy that had the most time on the shuttle last year, bouncing from Syracuse to Queens several times to provide some long relief and spot starts to offset an ailing pitching staff.  This is the spring that Hagenman needs to make the case to stay in Queens.  The case is going poorly.  His pitches were hit very hard, even when they resulted in outs.  The line said 3IP, 4H, 2ER but it looked worse.  The interesting part was that he was not pulled.  The new pitching coaches may have been looking for signs that he could figure it out, but after three troubled innings and reaching a pitch count, his day was over.  He can’t afford any more days like that.

Hitting

MJ Melendez showed why the Mets should give him a close look, as he knocked two pitches over the opposite field fence from the DH slot.

AJ Ewing showed why he is an exciting prospect.  In his first at-bat, he manufactured a run by beating out an infield chopper, stealing second, scurrying to third when the throw got away, and scoring on a groundout.  His next at-bat was a home run. In just a few innings, he was 2-2 with three runs scored and two RBI.

Defense

The box score showed zero errors.  Carson Benge showed great reaction time in right, diving forward to snag a slicing line drive.  Christian Arroyo played a solid third base. 

Day 2- Saturday home against the Nationals: The Mets dropped  a close 3-2 ballgame but had rallies in the 8th and 9th with chances to win it.  

Pitching

The Mets had their first formal look at Tobias Myers in game action.  Tobias was the additional player in the Peralta trade that is expected to give the team many innings as either a SP5 or a long reliever.  Myers looked pretty good in his start, giving up two hits and one earned run in three innings.  He fanned four and walked one.  On a sample of one, he lived up to expectations.  There is much more to see.

Two pitchers that did not live up to expectations were Craig Kimbrel (1 IP, 1H, 2BB, 1ER) and Adbert Alzolay (1 IP, 2H 1ER, 0BB, 1K).  They both have been dominant closers in their past, but did not look the part here in the early spring.  Kimbrel was hit pretty hard.  Although there are no statcast metrics for the game, the sound of the bat hitting pitches he delivered told me he is not missing barrels.  Alzolay also gave up a few well-struck balls, but the two things that were a little disappointing was a wild pitch allowing a runner to move to third with no outs and a stolen base that was entirely on the pitcher.  It is still early with time to clean things up, but these two veterans are vying for late inning set-up positions where there is no margin for mistakes or barreled-up hits.

Hitting

There wasn’t too much hitting in this game to write about, but I saw much better contact from Brett Baty and Ji Hwan Bae than in prior games.  Mark Vientos also hit the ball hard, with two balls to the warning track that don’t show in the box score.  Nick Morabito had an RBI double that should have plated two runs if not for a very conservative call by new third base coach Tim Leiper that held back Antonio Jimenez from scoring.

Defense

In a season about run prevention, there were definitely some plays worth mentioning.  On the positive side, Ronny Mauricio made a nice charging throw to the plate on an infield ground ball where the player on third was running on contact.

On the negative side, Brett Baty’s progress as a first baseman is slow.  He has not yet developed the instincts to move towards the bag on ground balls that are well within range of the second baseman.  This gives him less time to set up.  He also does not instinctively position his feet for a possible stretch.  Both of these subtle mistakes could cost the team outs on close plays.  Look for him to improve with more in-game experience.

Also on the negative side, the third base play was not crisp.  Bo Bichette failed to glove a ball to his right that he should have gotten to and Jacob Reimer showed very limited range to his left.  Both balls are fielded by the average major league third baseman.

Other

Ryan Clifford came up in the eighth inning with a runner on and a chance to put the team ahead with one swing.  Although he didn’t knock one out of the park, I loved the chant echoing from the stands throughout his at-bat: “Big Red Dog, Big Red Dog!”  I think that can stick if he comes through with some heroics.

Day 3 - Sunday home against the Astros: The Mets prevailed 4-3 on a walk-off base hit by Yonathan Henriquez.  

Pitching

The second start of the pre-season by Clay Holmes was a rough one for him, but not of his own doing.  He had to throw 31pitches in the first inning, but 21 of them were strikes.  The defense let him down with a communication failure in the middle infield that botched a double play.  He didn't help his cause by allowing a stolen base by Altuve who was 60 feet to second before the ball left Holmes' hand.  Other than that inning, Holmes was good and the Mets were happy to see him throw over 60 pitches without tiring.

Jack Wenninger got a shot (actually two shots) but struggled with his control.  I still think he is a lock to make the big leagues in either late 2026 or 2027, but this was not his day.  1.2 IP 1H 5BB 2 ER is a shaky line, but he is mentally tough enough to recover.

Max turner pitched the ninth and smoked three consecutive batters, drawing a roar from the crowd. 

Hitting

The team had some hard hits, which was encouraging.  A tough wind kept some balls in the park that normally would have left.  However, Chris Suero came up in the seventh with the Mets down one and hit a line drive to left field that was struck so well that the wind couldn't stop it to tie the game.  Yonathan Henriquez walked it off with a base hit in the ninth.

Defense

Let's just say there was a lot of learning going on out there.  Bad communication between Semien and Brujan on a tailor made double play ball and a strange "who got it" play in right center made it look like opening day is far, far away.

Other

I am awestruck by the precision of the ABS.  Calls were challenged that ended up being 0.4" off the strike zone. There was one call where the ball had a single seam inside the strike zone.  I have to hand it to the umpires, who were that close to getting it right.

I still have not seen Jorge Polanco in a Mets game this year.  The rumor is that he is on the back fields taking a crash course on fielding first base.  We are nine games into the pre-season and he has no reps.  This is beginning to concern me because the same in-game experiences that Baty struggled with Saturday are the learning tools that Polanco needs.  Meanwhile, there is a revolving door of players manning first for a couple innings apiece.  More to say on this later in the week.

Overall, it was a great weekend to watch spring training baseball.  The Mets are fully engaged in their evaluations of players across the board, and results will not be known until mid-to-late March.  My observations are based on a small sample size so use them to inform, not to predict.

Reese Kaplan -- Another Look at the Real Numbers in the Pen


A great many people have been vocal about the NY Mets bullpen not being ready for prime time despite the changes that have been made.  You can make a number of points about breakthrough potential vs. blow-up potential, but the fact is that there are indeed some reasons to be as optimistic as there is to be stockpiling grain alcohol to help forget what happens late in games.

First of all there is the closer, Devin Williams.  It came as little surprise that David Stearns embraced the former Milwaukee Brewer to replace Edwin Diaz who was off to show how his love for L.A.  If the issue was strictly his career in Brew City.  His ERA and saves numbers were indeed highly impressive there.  It was the major bump in the road during his ill fated year in the Bronx that has many people reaching for their antacids.  When his first game appearance was accompanied by a home run by the first batter he faced it was a splash of gasoline on the already flaming pyre of doubt. 

Of course, no one seems to remember the initial year in Queens for one Sugar Diaz.  He finished his Seattle career with a 2.64 ERA and over 100 saves during that three year span.  Everyone thought the Mets had heisted the best of the best and puffed out their chests in anticipation of what he could do at Citifield.  During his 2019 Mets initial season over 66 games he delivered a 5.59 ERA with just 26 saves and a 1.379 WHIP.  Yet somehow people forget all about that.


By contrast, Devin Williams delivered a 1.83 ERA over a span of 241 games with a WHIP of just 1.023 spanning six seasons.  In his one year as a Yankee he delivered a 4.59 ERA with 18 saves and a 1.129 ERA over 67 games.  Are we noting his performance in his bad year was better than what the Mets got from Diaz in his?  Are we also noting that the Diaz career ERA including the Mariners and the Mets is an ERA that is highly impressive at 2.56 and a WHIP of 1.036 looks quite good.  However, for his career with the Brewers and Yankees poor little Williams has a 2.45 ERA and 1.045 WHIP.  Like the unsung Mark Vientos vs. Brett Baty, sometimes looking at the real numbers makes all the difference in the world.   

Behind the closer, you have Luke Weaver inked to a new deal as well.  Forgetting his fugly starting pitcher numbers, as a reliever the past few seasons Weaver delivered 126 games of highly credible bullpen performance with a 3.21 ERA and a WHIP of 0.969.  If he can replicate those kinds of stats for the Mets he will make everyone from Steve Cohen to David Stearns to Carlos Mendoza very happy indeed.

The returning of Brooks Raley is already an accepted good third member of the relief corps for the end of ballgames.  After that it becomes a bit more unpredictable, but when the slow-track recovery of AJ Minter will allow him to return in May then you have another extremely solid setup guy in the mix. 


One of the more interesting options the Mets are entertaining is the minor-league contract holding former All Star closer, Craig Kimbrel.  At age 37 his velocity is not exactly what it once was and placing him on the major league roster will require expunging someone else from it to make room.  Still, a career with 851 major league games Kimbrel owns a 2.58 ERA and has fanned 1282 batters in less than 822 innings pitched.  While he may not be the man earning the saves anymore, the fact is his track record is so spectacular that having him in the major league bullpen fortifies what could already be an impressive top five pitchers.  Add in long reliever and spot starter Tobias Myers and you already have a pretty impressive top six when you include Minter.  Throw in big lefty Bryan Hudson whose career numbers are better than you’d expect for a late addition and you have the makings of a fine pen. 

After that it’s certainly open to debate.  It could be a last gasp for veteran Luis Garcia.  It could be a return of the up and down performance of Huascar Brazoban.  It could be any of a few other AAAA types. 

On the whole I’d have to give the bullpen remake at least a B+ with an A- possible mostly on the arm of Devin Williams returning to his Milwaukee form.  

3/1/26

Tom Brennan: PROSPECTS 1500’S TOP 50 METS PROSPECTS - THIS YEAR AND LAST YEAR

 

Which Prospects Will Successfully JUMP to the Majors? 

Everyone who is ANYONE ranks the prospects!


Second Brennan article this morning. A rare day-day doubleheader.

Read ‘em!


Prospects1500 writers collectively rank each team's Top 50 prospects.  

That’s 50 X 30 = 1500 prospects!  

Ranking a whopping 1500 MLB prospect players is a lot of work!


Join with me, as I am going to:

1) re-look at their 2025 top 50 Mets rankings

2) with a few of my thoughts

3) followed by their new, recent early 2026 Mets top 50 prospects list:  


How do they grade?

They categorize the 50 dudes into “Tiers” of talent, as defined below.  

Prospects1500 Tiers:

Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years

Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 4: Players who have the potential to make the majors; possible sleeper candidates for sustained MLB success

Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who may make (or have made) the majors but provide minimal impact 

According to them, the Mets in 2025 had zero Tier 1 prospects.  Ouch.

Feel free to Google their list at Mets prospects1500 2025 (and for 2026) for more details as to their logic. I just list their rankings here.


Last year’s 2025 list follows, but first, a few of my observations:

How fascinating that all four of their TIER 2 METS from last year were TRADED! 

And their #9 and #10 in TIER 3? Also packaged like salami and shipped out. Others were dealt, too.

I note also if they are gone (via trade, etc.), or released.

Yes indeed! 

The Stearns Shipping Department was BUSY! 

He includes free shipping.

Amazingly, Prospects 1500 in 2025 had the now-great Nolan McLean in lowly TIER 4.

They had Nolan BEHIND the not-so-great Jeremy Rodriguez, and barely ahead of mediocre Colin Houck and floundering Alex Ramirez! 

See the definition for TIER 4 above, which shows they were way, way off on Nolan, who is clearly TIER ONE.

They also, at #32, had AJ Ewing in 2025, ranked way, way too low. 

And Jolly Jack Wenninger in 2025?  Only at #44? 

Well, in fairness, Jack was a 2025 dynamo. A very pleasant surprise.


PUBLISHED IN EARLY 2025 

PROSPECTS 1500 METS TOP 50 RANKINGS

Tier 1 - None

Tier 2

1. Jett Williams, SS, 21, Triple-A - gone.

2. Brandon Sproat, RHP, 24, Triple-A - gone.

3. Drew Gilbert, OF, 24, Triple-A - gone.

4. Luisangel Acuña, SS/OF, 22, MLB - gone.

Tier 3

5. Ronny Mauricio, SS/OF, 23, Injured (MLB in 2023)

6. Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF, 21, Double-A (Praised his AA power)

7. Carson Benge, OF, 21, Single-A

8. Jonah TongRHP, 21, Double-A

9. Jesus Baez, SS/2B, 19, High-A - gone.

10. Blade Tidwell, RHP, 23, Triple-A - gone.

Tier 4

11. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS, 18, Rookie (FCL)

12. Nolan McLean, RHP/DH, 23, Double-A

13. Nick Morabito, OF, 21, High-A

14. Colin Houck, SS/3B, 20, Single-A

15. Alex Ramírez, OF, 21, Double-A - released.

16. Boston Baro, 3B/SS, 20, High-A

17. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, 18, Rookie (DSL)

18. Kevin Parada, C, 23, Double-A

19. Marco Vargas, SS, 19, Single-A

20. Jonathan Santucci, LHP/DH, 22, College

Tier 5

21. Felipe De La Cruz, LHP, 23, High-A

22. Dom Hamel, RHP, 25, Triple-A 

23. Trey Snyder, SS, 19, Single-A

24. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 20, High-A

25. Jeffry Rosa, OF, 20, Single-A - released.

26. Edward Lantigua, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL)

27. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 22, High-A

28. Nick Lorusso, 1B, 24, Double-A

29. Daiverson Gutierrez, C, 19, Single-A

30. Christopher Suero, C, 20, High-A

31. Nate Dohm, RHP, 21, College - gone.

32. A.J. Ewing, OF/2B, 20, Single-A

33. Joander Suarez, RHP, 24, Triple-A

34. Ronald Hernandez, C/1B, 21, High-A

35. Eduardo Herrera, RHP, 24, Double-A

36. Wellington Aracena, RHP, 20, Single-A - gone.

37. Franklin Gomez, LHP, 19, Single-A - gone.

38. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP, 28, Triple-A - gone.

39. Trey McLoughlin, RHP, 25, Triple-A

40. JT Schwartz, 1B, 25, Triple-A

41. Eli Serrano III, OF, 21, Single-A

42. Douglas Orellana, RHP, 22, High-A

43. Joel Díaz, RHP, 20, Single-A 

44. Jack Wenninger, RHP, 22, High-A

45. Julio Zayas, C, 18, Rookie (FCL)

46. Raimon Gomez, RHP, 23, High-A - gone

47. Brett Banks, RHP, 23, High-A

48. Jose Guevara, RHP, 19, Rookie (DSL)

49. Simon Juan, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)

50. Jefrey De Los Santos, 2B/OF, 21, High-A


NEW 2026 TOP 50 PROSPECTS PER PROSPECTS 1500:

Link - check it out:

PROSPECTS 1500 METS TOP 50 OF 2026

So…below is their new top 50…tell me what you think.

I will say it is NICE to have two Tier 1 players, compared to last year’s “none.” Remember, they define “Tier 1” players in these glowing terms: 

“Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years.”


Tier 1

1. Carson Benge, OF, 23, Triple-A

2. Nolan McLean, RHP, 23, MLB

Tier 2

3. Jonah Tong, RHP, 22, MLB

4. A.J. Ewing, OF, 21, Double-A

5. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 22, Double-A

MAN, I REALLY LIKE THOSE FIVE.

Tier 3

6. Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF, 22, Triple-A
7. Mitch Voit, 2B, 21, Single-A
8. Elian Peña, SS, 18, Rookie (DSL)
9. Jonathan Santucci, LHP, 23, Double-A
10. Jack Wenninger, RHP, 23, Double-A

MAN, I REALLY LIKE THESE SECOND 5, TOO.


Tier 4

11. Nick Morabito, OF, 22, Double-A
12. Chris Suero, C/OF, 22, Double-A
13. Will Watson, RHP, 23, Double-A
14. Eli Serrano III, OF, 22, High-A
15. Boston Baro, SS/3B, 21, High-A
16. Zach Thornton, LHP, 24, Double-A
17. Marco Vargas, 2B/SS, 20, High-A
18. R.J. Gordon, RHP, 24, Double-A
19. Daiverson Gutierrez, C, 20, Single-A
20. Dylan Ross, RHP, 25, Triple-A
21. Ryan Lambert, RHP, 23, Double-A

Tier 5

22. Antonio Jimenez, SS, 21, Single-A
23. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, 19, Rookie (DSL)
24. Randy Guzman, 1B/OF, 20, Single-A
25. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS/2B/3B, 19, Single-A
26. Trey Snyder, 2B/3B, 20, Single-A
27. Peter Kussow, RHP, 19, High school
28. Christian Scott, RHP, 26, Injured (MLB in 2024)
29. Edward Lantigua, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)
30. Colin Houck, 3B/SS, 21, High-A
31. Felipe De La Cruz, LHP, 24, Triple-A
32. Camden Lohman, RHP, 19, High school
33. Kevin Parada, C, 24, Triple-A
34. Jonathan Pintaro, RHP, 28, MLB
35. Ronald Hernandez, C, 22, High-A
36. Daviel Hurtado, LHP, 21, Single-A
37. Jose Ramos, OF, 25, Triple-A
38. Joel Diaz, RHP, 21, High-A
39. Cam Tilly, RHP, 21, College
40. Yonatan Henriquez, OF, 21, High-A
41. Douglas Orellana, RHP, 23, Triple-A
42. Saul Garcia, RHP, 22, Double-A
43. Julio Zayas, C, 20, Rookie (FCL)
44. Simon Juan, OF, 20, Single-A
45. Yunior Amparo, OF/1B/3B, 19, Rookie (DSL)
46. Joander Suarez, RHP, 25, Triple-A
47. Brendan Girton, RHP, 24, Double-A
48. Irving Cota, RHP, 22, Double-A
49. Wyatt Vincent, OF, 19, High school
50. Jose Chirinos, RHP, 21, Single-A

I could quibble over a few of their rankings.

For instance, having the very fine Brendan Girton as low as at #47, and I might switch Yonatan Henriquez (their #40) with Eli Serrano (their #14), because Eli is 1.5 years older than Yonatan, but Yonatan had the better 2025 season (go ahead, look up their stats), but it’s a GOOD 2026 LIST overall from P 1500.

But…that’s just me…what do YOU think?


Oh, and…

TODAY IS MARCH 1.  

REGULAR SEASON METS BASEBALL STARTS THIS MONTH.

YIPPEE!