MACK - Coaches Wars

The Mets are working behind the scenes to change the members of the contracted 2027 coaching staff. It remained behind the scene until it didn’t, when reporters announced that ex-Mets hitting coach, Kevin Long, would not return in a similar role, and current Chicago Cubs assistant hitting coach, John Mallee, would also remain in Chi-town in his current role.

It’s obvious… now… that the Mets are not happy with their hitting coach situation.

Additionally, the Mets announced that they have promoted former major league all-star, Mariano Duncan, from the AA-Binghamton bench coach to an “undetermined full-time coach role on the parent squad. He has previously ben an infield and first base coach for the Dodgers.

Duncan was primarily a middle infielder as a pro, but he did also play some leftfield. He lifetime stats were 5.8-WAR, 4,677-AB, 87-HR, .267.

Paul Articulate got to know him last season and said yesterday that Duncan was a ‘nice guy’. Great. The Mets seem to have a lot of these lately. We all know where nice guys finish.

It seems obvious to m that the Mets are not happy with Troy Snitker as their hitting coach, though Mets suits will tell you that both Snitker and assistant hitting coach Rafael Fernandez are returning for the 2027 season.

This tells me that all the Mets might be doing right now is looking for a replacement for recent departed Direct of Major League Hitting, Jeff Albert, who was recently showed the door. Boy, this is a lot of hitting coaches for one parent level team.

I assume this role will not be filled with Duncan; however, assuming anything about this team could be at a risk.

As we used to say at Disco 92, ‘the best goes on’. 

Steve Sica - Two Met pitchers making the most of AFL Opportunity

Irving Cota delivers a strike in Saturday's AFL action

When the Mets selected Peyton Prescott in the 5th round of the 2025 draft, they were expecting to get a pitcher who could find his way into the middle or high end section of their rotation in a few years. That path has taken a couple of detours. After not appearing in any professional action in 2025, Prescott remained on the IL for the near entirety of the 2026 season. Pitching just one inning of work at the end of the Low-A season.

He's gone through four starts in the AFL, and after a rough first couple of outings, his last two appearances have shown that the Mets might've found something in their 5th-round pick. He's pitched two scoreless outings in five innings of work, and lowered his season ERA to 3.83. He's chalked up seven innings of work in his AFL season and struck out six in the process.

That may not seem like much, but for someone who spent nearly two years on the shelf and in a hitter-friendly league like the AFL, there's a lot to be excited about heading into 2027, so long as Prescott continues to stay healthy.

Irving Cota dominated this Spring with High-A Brooklyn. Used primarily as a reliever, he pitched to the tune of a 0.73 ERA in 24 innings of work. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Binghamton, where, unfortunately, that success didn't continue. He was rocked with a 9+ ERA before injuries cut his season short.

In the AFL, though, Cota has found his old form again. In 11 innings of work, he has a 3.27 ERA with 14 strikeouts, second on the AFL leaderboard. On Saturday, he turned in his longest bullpen outing of the season, allowing two runs in 3 and 1/3 innings with two strikeouts. He also threw a season-high 51 pitches.

Cota will be 23 by MiLB Opening Day in April. The Mets would like to see the success he had early in 2026 with Brooklyn carry over to the higher leagues. So far, in the AFL, where a good amount of the talent hails from Double-A, it looks like he might be able to launch his career further in 2027.

That would be great news for the Mets, who've now grown a reputation for producing stellar pitching prospects on the farm and turning them into more than serviceable members of their rotation and bullpen.

Cautious Optimist -- 2027 is not the year to wait for bad contracts to end. It's time to Ladder Up: Part 1

 

I disagree with two commonly held views.  The first is that 2027 is a transition year.

The second is that the Mets have the makings of a top tier starting rotation already in place.

In this post, I argue against the first of these claims.  In the next, I argue against the second.

In principle, there are two reasons for thinking that 2027 should be viewed as a transition year.  The first is that the Mets don't currently have the talent to compete in 2027.  The second is that they are handicapped by  too much money committed to players unable to contribute to a playoff run. 

The difference between 2027 and 2028 is that the money committed to poorly performing players will be off the books after 2027; and the better players who can replace them who are not yet ready to do so will be  ready in 2028. 

Makes sense.  I'm just not buying it.

I don't believe that there is such a thing as a transition year in baseball -- at least not when viewed from an ex ante perspective. A FO can reasonably go into a year thinking they are a few players short of being a legitimate contender, but they don't see themselves as transitioning.  They look forward to the upcoming year as an opportunity for more development and growth, bringing them closer to the goal. 

Transitioning signifies moving from one group of 'players' to another.  In business, it typically refers to the process of replacing one leadership group with the next.  Like the TV show, Succession, the process can be fraught as everyone wonders what role they will have under a new regime.

In baseball, it is fair to say that the Los Angeles Angels are entering a transition period.  The Mets are not.

The Mets are serious about competing for playoff births, pennants and championships.

Teams intent on competing are continually engaged in two activities, neither of which amount to transitioning: 1.laddering up -- within a season and from season to season; 2. backfilling -- replenishing the talent pool from which they draw.  They don't transition, as if there is a period that is called a transition that takes place between the time of 'just missing' and 'can't miss.' 

This is not 'just' a semantic difference.  It represents a difference in what the task or goal is, what attitudes are appropriate with regard to it, and what behavior is called for to achieve the goal.  

Transitioning suggests a period defined by time.  Laddering and backfilling may take time, but neither is defined by time.  Both are defined by an attitude -- a way of approaching a task or a goal -- and the actions required to achieve it.

A team on the way up is constantly evolving, getting better.  Getting rid of what isn't working and looking for things that do work and that fit together.  In most environments, if you are not moving forward, you are losing ground.  

Of course there are times that call for building a foundation or rebuilding a team. That's the situation in which the Angels find themselves; not the one the Mets do. 

The first order of building a team is to amass talent.  The second is identify and develop a group within the talent pool that represent the core of the team.  The core is both the heart and soul of the team and its identity: how it plays the game.  It is also the group that possesses the greatest magnetic or gravitational force (depending on your chosen metaphor).

In the late 90s the Yankees had their home grown core -- the Core Four.   

Hard to find a Yankee fan now who doesn't wish for a return to that way of constructing the team.  What fans don't realize is the extent to which putting a core together -- however strong the intent to do so may be requires a good deal of good fortune and luck.

People forget too quickly that the Mets of the first half of the 2020s had a core, arguably consisting of Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, Diaz and, at the end, Soto. 

It's an open question whether the Mets core failed to gel or to exert an adequate gravitational force or magnetic pull on the rest of the team or whether instead the FO failed to surround the core with sufficiently talented complementary players.  

Count me among those in the second camp. 

The truth is that the current Mets have a core: Lindor, Soto, Benge, McLean, Bichette (for now).  It's not necessarily a complete core --as Bichette is more a temporary participant than are the others -- nor has it gelled sufficiently to pull in the rest of the team to pursue a common purpose.

If you want a contrasting team think of the Brewers and the outsized influence on everyone that Yellich and Contraras have.  It's the kind of force of personality that sweeps up the younger players.  It is more than a vibe; it is a way of approaching the task at hand.

On the Mets it is a role one would have hoped would be played by Lindor and Soto, but, if I had to lay a bet on it, I would put my money on the combination of Benge and Soto.

The Core defines the DNA of a team, and once that happens, the strategy of laddering up can begin in earnest.  Until that time, the best a team can do is amass talent as best they can.  Once the core is in place, the goal is to surround them with the right players: not just in terms of performance and position, but in terms of attitude and commitment.

For years, the Mets have been largely moving bodies in and out of Flushing without attention to the dynamics -- both on the field and in the clubhouse.  In recent years, Stearns has put the team together by looking at computer print outs and searching for value at the edges.  Neither has worked well. 

Unsurprisingly, the team has not felt like a team. The pieces haven't fit. Now they can.  They have to if the team is to succeed long term. Baseball is not about fielding a number of players at different positions.  It's about putting a team together.

And that is the core explanation in my honest opinion or why there will be no excitement in 2028 if 2027 is not approached correctly. 2026 turned out to be a year of backfill; 2027 is the most crucial year of laddering up, building out from the core.  This is not the time to simply wait until the contracts run out and more money becomes available.

This is the time to show that you understand the opportunity before you  and seize it.  This is the time to ladder up and build up from the core strengthening the team mindset and commitment to collective goals.  This is not the time to wait for money to come off the books and settle for a mish mash of players in decline or injured.  This is the time to make a statement about winning the right way.

If the goal is to start a run of sustained success in 2028, then 2027 is the key.  And it starts by acknowledging that as currently constructed the 2027 Mets are not competitive.  

But if you think the 2028 Mets will be competitive if we just wait out the 2027 season, you're sadly mistaken.  Everything is path dependent.  You have to build now in every way you can for 2028 to approach the heights the fans and the owner expect to reach in 2028 and beyond.

 Step One in Laddering Up: Eliminating the Deadwood.

There is simply no question that the Mets have several high priced players who should not be on a team that is laddering up and aiming for greatness. Frankly these players are not even plausible place holders for a team with the ambitions the Mets have.

The corollary of backfilling talent while laddering up is eliminating deadwood in order to ladder up.

I want to discuss four players because they cost so much but have done little or nothing on the baseball field to warrant being on a team that is laddering up and leveling up their play.  These are Semien and Polanco, Senga and Manaea.  

There are others, most notably Mark Vientos and some borderline roster holders like Bret Baty, but they are not as crucial financially. 

If the Mets can't trade Vientos or can't find a place for Baty or Mauricio, that won't for a second impact  their payroll or show proof of their commitment to doing what needs to be done this year. Moving them, DFA'ing them, keeping them is all a matter of moving pieces at the margin.

Make the moves where they count and the fates of these three will be decided as a consequence.

What do you prove about your level of commitment to building for success by moving them if you don't touch the core four of Polanco, Semien, Senga and Manaea.

 It is inarguable that neither Semien nor Polanco have provided any baseball reason for being on next year's team.

Semien was once a terrific player, but he has been in decline for several years and his performance has deteriorated rapidly over the recent past.   

Polanco has never been a great player nor even a particularly good one.  He has been better than average and has had a nice career.  The problem is that he has been hobbled by injuries and last year was rendered completely unservicable by them.

It's foolish to expect him to be available full time next year; and even more foolish to expect him to perform to his 2025 level at the plate or in the field, and certainly not at 1B. 

In my view, if Polanco and Semien suit up as Mets next year, the Mets are de facto have thrown in the towel for next year. That's not what would irk me. What irks would be that they have forfeited the chance to get significantly better next year -- better in ways that set the stage for 2028 and beyond. 

Worse, if they are waiting for the bad contracts to come off the books, they are getting the math wrong  Sure it will cost money to cut ties with Polanco and Semien.  Both may be nearly untradeable given their salaries.  And any trade that could be made would require the Mets to pick up a healthy portion of the salary owed them.

But it's not as if keeping them around would cost less.  Quite the contrary in fact. 

Dollars are one form costs can take; letting a season go by without doing what you can to ladder up and get closer to your goals is also a cost -- a very real one.  It's one year less of Soto's prime; one year more of Lindor's potential decline; one more year with Mclean pitching with an inferior team behind him, and one year without Benge, Ewing and others not learning how to win or how to expect to do so; not to mention one last year (in all likelihood) of Bichette being around.

Don't let anyone tell you that these aren't real costs; they most certainly are. As are the psychological facts of being in a stalled environment, perhaps even a losing one.

And don't let anyone tell you that the Mets can't do better next year in terms of replacements for Semien and Polanco.

The Mets have three middle infielders on the farm who are likely to add more value to the team than Semien does.  And as far a Polanco goes, does anyone really believe that he would bring more to the team than even Young would, let alone others who might be available -- either at DH or at 1B.  C'mon.  A little honesty here would be helpful. 

Some combination of Petri, Rojas and Voit are building blocks in ways that Semien and Polanco are not.  

If you ask me, on a striclty cost benefit analysis -- if you include the benefits of laddering up as part of the plan for being that much better in 2028 -- the balance calls for cutting ties with Polanco and Semien by whatever means turns out to be necessary, though of course looking for a trade first would make sense.  

2028 starts in 2027 (if there is baseball in 2027).  That's my mantra.

Every minute you spend not going forward is another minute you spend losing ground.

Turning now to Senga and Manaea.   Both have been injured; both have underperformed.  Each can lay claim to one very good year, but were guilty of massive drop offs thereafter.  Senga was winless as a starter this year.  He did well when pressed into high leverage relief after the deadline, Manaea pitched horrendously in the first half of the year but was able to rise to 5th starter competency in the second half of the season. 

As to Senga: would you keep him next year as a high leverage reliever at 15m+ if some other team offered to take him off your hands and pay his salary?  Of course not.  

The job he would be taking in the pen (if he is not the actual closer) probably has a market value between  between 1/2 and 1/3 of what the Mets would be paying him.  If you can trade him even if you have to pay half his salary, you will still come out ahead, and any prospect with some promise would be gravy. 

As for Manaea, it's insane to pay a number 5 starter 25m+.  Not to mention that he is yet another 5 inning+ pitcher who has been more down than up since he's been a Met.  You'd have to pay 15m of his salary in a trade if you wanted a decent prospect back.

Trade them both if you can. Work out a deal to release them otherwise.

They are not bad guys; they are not bad players. They are just the wrong players for this team at this time.  

The team already has a much more cost effective #5 starter from the left side in Thornton.  He's efficient and committed to working on his craft. By my lights, he'll always be a back end of the staff pitcher at best, but ridding the team of Manaea and Senga allows you to be honest about where the Mets pitching staff actually stands.

I'll get into that in much greater detail in my next post.

So as I see it, if this is a so-called transition season, it will be entirely because the Mets have chosen not to level or ladder up -- for reasons of money; and that would be unforgivable in my book.

Isn't this the point of Steve Cohen's wealth?  Wealth, as RVH constantly reminds us, is an asset.  It has to be spent wisely.  Putting an end to these bad signings and severing ties is a whole lot better use than signing these players was in the first place. 

In effect, not doing so amounts to doubling down on mistakes you've made, throwing good money after bad.  And doing so for no other purpose than waiting for their contracts to end.

That's not how you win, and not what you do when you can afford to do better; and it is certainly not what you do when every step you take should be made with an eye towards a better future, instead of letting the past mistakes linger as a dark cloud over the organization.

And it's not as if there aren't reasonably priced alternatives for all of these players.  Some in the organization already. Others available in free agency and still others obtainable through trades.

I am not calling for more AAAA players.  Been there, done that, and it has gotten us nowhere.

You want names of real players who could be part of the future who the Mets should go after instead?

Sure, why not.

For Semien, the Mets have three players in house who are much more likely to be part of the future of the franchise: Rojas, Voit and Petri.  I can't tell you that any of them will have a better career than Semien has had, but that is not the issue.  All can bring somethings to the Mets and to the kind of ball they want to play that he cannot.

For Polanco as a DH (He's simply not a 1B),  I personally would split the job among Soto, Lindor and Bichette, so they are all in the lineup all the time.  Instead of a full time DH, I would look to obtain another starting outfielder and have Morabito in the wings. If Morabito hits .250 and runs the bases well, given his defense, he's your rotating 4th outfielder.

For Senga (I'm viewing him as a reliever since he was useless as a starter) how about Adrian Morejon (and there are others as well).

To replace Manaea, how about someone who could occupy a spot closer to the top of the rotation at less than half the price in Reid Detmers.  I wouldn't hesitate trading Thornton and Vientos and a prospect infielder or outfielder or catcher in the system, e.g. Parada.

All this is doable but doesn't guarantee that the Mets will be a pennant contender.  But it sure puts the team a lot closer to competing for the biggest prizes come 2028.

Occasionally, we get to see someone 'fail up -- sometimes spectacularly.  

But more often than not successful people who make mistakes own up to those mistakes, repair or correct them and then move on. 

All this will require money -- but only for one year or so as the Mets will have lots of money coming off the books in that time frame.  In the scheme of things, it's a small price to pay to show that the team is serious and has cut ties with poor decisions rather than doubling down on them.

If the FO severs ties with the deadwood on this team -- and repairs its self-inflicted wounds -- there is a decent chance that 2028 may well be the year so many of my colleagues here think and hope it will be.  

That's only half the story however.

We have to turn our pitching staff into the team's anchor and we are two starters and several relievers away from that.  Or so I will argue next time.

MACK - Fueled By Sports - Top 10 Draft Picks

 

1              Colorado Rockies             Dax Whitney                      RHP                        Oregon State

2              Los Angeles Angels          Brendan Lawson               INF                         Florida

3              Athletics                              Jared Grindlinger              LHP                        Huntington Beach HS (CA)

4              Kansas City Royals            Dylan Seward                    SS                           Norco HS (CA)

5              New York Mets                 Chase Fuller                        SS                           Lincoln HS (FL)

 

Position: Shortstop (SS) / 3B profile

Bats/Throws: Right / Right

School: Lincoln High School (FL)

Height/Weight: 6’3″ / 205 lbs

Draft Projection: Day 1 candidate → Top 40 upside with size, power potential, and left-side infield value

 

Overall Profile

Chase Fuller is a physical, high-upside prep infielder with a prototypical frame for impact at the next level. At 6’3″, 205 pounds, he combines strength, leverage, and athletic ability, giving him one of the more projectable offensive profiles among high school shortstops.

Fuller’s evaluation centers on the balance between offensive ceiling and defensive home. He has the tools to stay on the left side of the infield, and as his body continues to mature, teams will determine whether he remains at shortstop or transitions to third base, where his bat could profile even more prominently.

 

Hit Tool / Offensive Profile

 

Profile:

Fuller’s hit tool is built around bat speed, strength, and leverage. He shows the ability to generate hard contact with authority, though his offensive consistency is still developing as he refines his approach.

 

Approach:

Aggressive hitter with intent to drive the baseball

Produces loud contact when on time

Can get pull-heavy at times

Best results come when he stays balanced and controls tempo

 

Why it matters:

Power-hitting prep infielders are highly valuable, but the hit tool determines how often that power shows up. Fuller’s ability to improve contact consistency will define his offensive ceiling.

Power Potential (Carrying Tool)

Power is the defining trait in Fuller’s profile. His strength and bat speed allow him to generate impact-level contact and project as a middle-of-the-order bat.

 

Current Power Snapshot:

Above-average raw power

Easy carry to the pull side

Loud contact when squared up

 

Future Power Projection:

Projects as 20–25+ HR potential

Power plays in-game with improved approach

Middle-of-the-order offensive upside

 

Ceiling Outcome:

If the hit tool continues to develop, Fuller profiles as an impact bat capable of anchoring a lineup from the left side of the infield.

 

Speed & Athleticism

Fuller is a solid athlete for his size, showing enough mobility and coordination to handle infield duties while maintaining physical projection.

 

Athletic Traits:

Average to slightly above-average runner

Good body control for his size

Quickness in short areas

Athletic base supports defensive versatility

Defense & Shortstop Projection

Fuller’s defensive profile is one of the key variables in his evaluation. He shows the tools to handle shortstop, though his long-term home may shift depending on physical development.

 

Defensive Strengths:

Soft hands with clean transfers

Good internal clock

Comfortable making plays on the move

Arm strength supports left-side defense

 

Projection note:

He has the ability to remain at shortstop early in his development, but third base is a likely long-term fit if his frame continues to fill out.

 

Arm Strength

Fuller has a strong arm that plays comfortably on the left side of the infield.

 

Arm Traits:

Strong carry across the diamond

Accurate on routine throws

Ability to throw from multiple angles

 

Base Running & Instincts

Fuller is a solid base runner who uses his athleticism effectively. While not a burner, he shows awareness and takes advantage of opportunities.

 

6              Seattle Mariners               Dylan Volantis                   LHP                        Texas

7              Cincinnati Reds                 Chris Levonas                    RHP                        Wake Forest

8              Washington Nationals    Aidan King                           RHP                        Florida

9              Minnesota Twins              Adrian Rodriguez             INF                         Texas

10           San Francisco Giants       Max Hemenway               SS                           IMG Academy (FL)

 

FOR FUEL BY SPORTS. ENTIRE MOCK - https://fueledbysports.com/2027-mlb-mock-draft/

Paul Articulates - Choose your investment wisely

During each off-season, we all speculate about how the team should spend money to acquire players that would fill the perceived holes from the prior season.  It is so easy to do, because we are not spending our own personal money, we are figuratively spending the owner's money.

There are ways that we spend our own money, including tickets, memorabilia, subscriptions, and jerseys.  So let's have some fun today and talk about a pretty common investment made by many dedicated baseball fans - the purchase of a favorite player's jersey.

Making the decision to purchase a jersey is harder today than it was years ago.  Teams are constantly shuffling rosters to optimize their build, and even top players are fair game for trades or free agent acquisitions.  The cost of jerseys is also at an all-time high, running from $100-$200 for most selections.  One would hope that when you open the wallet to buy that fan gear that it would be something you can use for many seasons.  That is not a sure bet with today's roster volatility.

The last one I purchased was a Jeff McNeil #6.  I figured it was a safe bet, since he was a valuable contributor to the team, and could play enough roles that the team would want to keep him.  Well, that was partially true - they kept him for a while, but he gave his number to Starling Marte, so I was very quickly in possession of a historical artifact.

It is time now to shop for another, and maybe I will get a good price if there is an oversupply during a lock-out.  But what should I choose?

One approach is to select the jersey worn by a Soto or Lindor.  Neither is going anywhere soon, and neither is likely to offer their number to someone else.

Another approach is to choose an upcoming star like McLean, Benge, or Ewing. But a great season as a rookie does not guarantee long-lasting success.  Think about those baby Mets that all seemed to be sure things - now they are frequently included in those speculative articles about trades with other teams.

I could go old school with a former Mets' hero like Hernandez, Piazza, or Beltran and not have to worry about obsolescence.  But I already have a David Wright #5, so I think I have the past covered.

This leads us to the fun question of the day - what Met player's jersey would you purchase today?

Reese Kaplan -- Please Prove DH Is Not "Doesn't Hit"

The Designated Hitter (DH) being embraced by the National League in 2022 after the brief safety implementation to try to minimize the number of escalation opportunities during the COVID outbreak.  The thought was that the DH would add a middle of the order bat to the lineup by using either a poor fielding player who hurts the team more on the field than he benefits it with is bat or it could be an older player who doesn’t need the physical strain of stretching, running and throwing that playing defense requires. 

So far both before and during the Stearns era in charge the Mets have not yet fully exploited this position to help produce a significantly increased number of runs.  We won’t rehash all of the failed attempts at using the DH effectively.  Instead, let’s take a look at who might be in that lineup position for the 2027 Mets.

There appear to be a quartet of in-house options to consider as the 2027 DH for the Mets.  Only one of them is clearly patterned after the intended role for a defensively challenged ballplayer who can focus instead on the offensive side of his game.

What would it take to persuade the $765 million man Juan Soto that in his pre-30 playing time he’s ideal to be a DH?  Without even getting into his limited defensive game, let’s instead focus on offense.  He hits for power.  He dries in runs. He steals bases.  He’s capable against both right handed and left handed hitting.  He hits for a respectable batting average.  What’s not to love here?

The second best option the Mets must pay for 2027 is the long term injured and ineffective free agent acquisition Jorge Polanco.  He’s a little bit older but it’s not his age that would dictate him taking over this role.  Look at his injury history prior to becoming a Met and then here in 2026.  Allowing him simply to hit and run without playing the field would give him time to heal properly without the stress of donning a glove and playing the field.

If he’s still around Mark Vientos based upon his 2024 rookie season would also be an ideal DH.  His defensive game is best not discussed at all.  That year he hit 27 HRs and drove in 71 while getting 413 ABs.  Unfortunately it has thus far appeared to be a non-replicable outlier.  Since then the batting average has fallen and the HRs are the only aspect of his game with any positive output.  He is not consistent enough there to suggest he would flourish in this role.

Of course any offensive player could become a DH but here are the actual DH options listed as  free agents:

• Randy Arozarena
• Teoscar Hernández 
• Max Muncy
• Shohei Ohtani
• Joc Pederson:
• Anthony Rendon
• George Springer
• Seiya Suzuki

Then there are minor leaguers who could be unlikely possibilities since it’s unusual to have someone graduate to the majors and then thrust into the DH role.  If Ryan Clifford could hit consistently he would be one of them.  Newcomer Billy Amick would be another. 

There are always trades...

MACK – JUST BASEBALL - 2027 MLB Draft – Top 50 College Prospects

  

1. Brendan Lawson – 3B

HT/WT: 6’3/215 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: Florida | Hometown: Toronto, ON | Projected Age: 21.7

A Canadian-born player has never been selected 1.1 in the draft’s history, though that could change in 2027. Lawson grew up in Ontario and made his way south to P27 Academy, though ailments hampered his efforts as a high school senior. That made him one of the premier bats to reach campus, and over two years in Gainesville, he’s lived up to expectations.

Lawson has undergone some swing and approach changes to achieve his success. As a prepster, Lawson employed a high handset that’s reminiscent of Nolan Schanuel’s and a wider base, electing to lace the ball to both sides of the field. Now, Lawson has become more upright, with his hands starting in front of his face before drifting back into a launching position. This move lets Lawson generate more leverage and torque, leading to ridiculous bat speed through the zone.

He began pulling the ball much more in 2026, with his PullAir% jumping from 19.52% to 27.14% and his PullFlyBall% spiking to 15%. He has double-plus raw power in the tank, registering a 111.2 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity, an outrageous figure to post in college baseball.

The hit tool itself isn’t too shabby either, with his bat-to-ball skills shoring up against secondary offerings and his swing decisions improving drastically. He does show some passivity in the zone, with a 51% swing rate, which he’ll need to improve. That said, his offensive ceiling could be special.

Defensively, Lawson was Florida’s everyday shortstop in 2026, where he fared well and made quality plays. However, Lawson sometimes rushed plays, and he’s expected to add more mass in the coming years. That leaves a move to the hot corner on the table, where his above-average arm strength would fit well.

In a draft class without many up-the-middle options, Lawson’s offensive tools give him the highest upside of any collegiate player in the class. If the defense at shortstop improves in 2027, it’ll be a cherry on top.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 70 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55

 

2. Dax Whitney – RHP

HT/WT: 6’5/218 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Oregon State | Hometown: Blackfoot, ID | Projected Age: 21.5

In the waning weeks of the 2024 cycle, Whitney had significant helium, though he turned down multi-million-dollar bonuses to wind up in Corvallis with the Beavers. He immediately stepped into the weekend rotation and became one of the top arms in the country, striking out 224 batters across 139.2 innings before suffering an elbow injury in late April.

Unfortunately, this injury will sideline Whitney through the 2027 season, but even with this wrinkle, he’s the best arm in this class. We’ve seen injured pitchers taken high before, but Whitney’s track record and stuff keep him in 1.1 contention.

The delivery is a bit unorthodox, with an extremely tight arm circle that turns into an over-the-top slot, but he’s a buttery-smooth mover with repeatable mechanics. Whitney’s stuff is outrageously good, starting with an upper-90s cut/ride monster of a fastball. He consistently cuts the fastball and generates plus carry, which led to a 37% whiff rate in 2026. That’s across a 545-pitch sample size, a truly incredible figure. It’s every bit of a double-plus heater.

He’s more than just the fastball, though, as each of Whitney’s secondary pitches has plus upside. He has a mid-to-upper-80s slider with fantastic snap and sweep. It has gotten upwards of 90 MPH, and he averages over 2,600 RPM. His low-80s curveball has little to no hump out of the hand, diving to the dirt with immense depth and some late lateral action. He kills a lot of spin on an upper-80s change-up that features solid fade and tumble, too.

The fact that Whitney projects to have four plus-or-better pitches with above-average command is astonishing, and it puts him in rare territory. It’s easy to see why scouts and analysts praise him as the best collegiate arm since Paul Skenes, and given the lack of up-the-middle talent in this class, he will have a chance to be taken 1.1 despite his injury.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Change: 60 | Command: 55

 

3. Gavin Kelly – C,2B

HT/WT: 6’0/175 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: West Virginia | Hometown: Pittsburgh, PA | Projected Age: 21.6

West Virginia has become a legitimate powerhouse in the Big 12, and Kelly was a major catalyst in the program’s first-ever appearance in Omaha this season. After impressing as a freshman for the Mountaineers, Kelly’s game elevated to superstardom in 2026, slashing .382/.477/.725 in 305 plate appearances, racking up 21 doubles and 19 home runs with a 43:45 BB:K ratio.

It’s a well-rounded profile on both sides of the ball. An athletic prospect with hitterish traits present, Kelly has a quick, compact swing that pairs with excellent barrel feel and swing decisions. Kelly led the NCAA in barrels last season and amplifies his power production with a swing that is built to lift the baseball in the air, playing to both sides of the field. His higher-end exit velocities suggest an average power hitter, though his ability to consistently impact the ball the way he does is impressive.

The bat-to-ball skills are just as remarkable, including his affinity for fastballs. While Kelly does have an exaggerated barrel wrap, he whiffed on velocity just 11% of the time in 2026. With improvements against breaking balls in 2027, Kelly could become the best pure hitter in the college ranks.

Defensively, Kelly has utility that will benefit his profile. He has split time between catcher and second base in Morgantown, and he’s also spent time in the grass on the Cape. Kelly’s athleticism and plus speed shine at those positions, and he has the arm strength to hold his own behind the plate. It’s reasonable to believe that Kelly can be an above-average or better defender with multiple places to slot him in on the lineup card.

Repeating his 2026 campaign will keep Kelly firmly in 1.1 discussions.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 55

 

4. Tomas Valincius – LHP

HT/WT: 6’2/225 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Mississippi State | Hometown: Lockport, IL | Projected Age: 21.9

In a draft class that is filled to the brim with pitching talent, Valincius is the best southpaw available. After performing admirably as a freshman at Virginia, he followed head coach Brian O’Connor to Starkville and led a dynamic Mississippi State pitching staff.

With a thicker build, abundant strength, and remarkable feel for his arsenal, Valincius is one of the more pro-ready talents in the class. An easy mover on the mound with repeatable mechanics, Valincius hides the ball well with a shorter arm circle and has explosive arm speed from a low three-quarters slot. This gives him premium deception and lets the ball jump on hitters quickly.

While his fastball isn’t a bat-misser, it’s a monstrous mid-90s sinker that benefits greatly from the deception, and he can establish a tunnel to his secondaries. It’s also a strong groundball producer, as hitters pound the offering into the dirt at a 60% clip. Valincius’ mid-80s slider is a true plus offering that plays off the fastball tunnel, showcasing tight spin and sharp lateral bite that befuddles hitters. He can command the offering to both sides of the plate consistently, and it boasted a 48% whiff and 39% chase rate in 2026. Valincius rounds out his arsenal with a strong mid-80s change-up that gives him an above-average weapon against right-handed hitters. He sells the offering well, and the pitch tumbles below the barrel, inducing a 51% whiff rate.

It’s a strong three-pitch mix that is tied together with above-average command. As a result, Valincius has mid-rotation upside at the next level.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Change: 55 | Command: 55

 

5. Landon Hairston – OF

HT/WT: 5’11/195 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Arizona State | Hometown: Queen Creek, AZ | Projected Age: 21.5

The Hairston family has a long baseball legacy. Four family members have played in the big leagues, with Scott the most recent to have a successful career. His son, Landon, is next in line, and he has the tools to be just as successful as the others.

After forcing himself into the lineup as a freshman, Hairston was a Golden Spikes Finalist in 2026, slashing a ridiculous .400/.509/.860 with 50 extra-base hits, including 28 long balls. He has one of the most complete offensive profiles in the class, boasting excellent contact skills, burgeoning power, and a polished approach.

Hairston has a rhythmic swing with a compact bat path and robust bat speed. The barrel stays in the zone for a long time, and he’s efficient at creating backspin at contact, with above-average exit velocities in the tank. Adding leverage and pulling the baseball allowed the power production to take a significant jump in 2026, and it came with an improvement in bat-to-ball skills. Hairston torches fastballs in and out of the zone, plus he can adjust his swing plane to cover every quadrant possible. It’s a plus hit tool at the end of the day.

Originally an infielder in high school, Hairston transitioned to the grass in Tempe, where he’s manned left field for most of his career. It’s where he fits best at the next level with decent routes and reads, though with his athleticism steadily improving, there’s a non-zero chance he can stick in center.

If he proves that he can stay at the “eight,” it will improve his draft stock in a class that lacks up-the-middle talent. That said, even if he doesn’t, the bat is good enough to take in the top ten picks without thinking twice.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Field : 50 | Arm: 50

 

6. Jimmy Janicki – C

HT/WT: 6’4/223 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Troy | Hometown: Downers Grove, IL | Projected Age: 21.4

Every draft cycle, there’s at least one or two mid-major stars with plenty of first-round buzz. This year, there’s a clear-cut leader in the clubhouse. Jimmy Janicki has it all, and it’s difficult to poke holes in his game at this point.

His bat-to-ball skills are stellar for a backstop, with a 19% whiff rate in his sophomore season after posting 13% the year prior. Even more, he recognizes spin exceptionally well and makes contact at a clip well above average, which was a big factor in his low strikeout rate of 13% last year. He does try to expand the zone a touch more than you’d like to see, but he still makes contact at a respectable rate when he does.

More impressively, Janicki’s best feature at the plate isn’t even his contact ability: it’s his otherworldly feel for the barrel. The Illinois native has made a career out of loud ABs, utilizing a pull-side-oriented approach that results in a ground-ball rate below 30%. Oh yeah, and a 110 mph 90th-percentile EV isn’t half bad either. Our newest writer, Josh Catlett, got a couple of up-close looks at him in Omaha from right behind home plate, and he truly might’ve been my favorite watch of the week.

Coming off a season in which he posted a 1.080 OPS with 21 home runs and 26 doubles for one of the final six teams standing, all eyes will be on the Troy star as he attempts to make a final push up draft boards in hopes of earning himself $3 million+ in July.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 70 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 55

 

7. Chris Levonas – RHP

HT/WT: 6’1/175 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Wake Forest | Hometown: Holmdel, NJ | Projected Age: 21.4

After adding significant velocity in his senior spring, the Milwaukee Brewers selected Levonas in the second round. However, Levonas turned down millions to enroll at Wake Forest, and after enduring his lumps as a freshman, he put together a fantastic sophomore campaign. Across 15 starts, Levonas struck out 116 batters and posted a 2.82 ERA with an improved arsenal, lining himself up for a first-round selection in 2027.

An elastic, flexible mover on the mound, he creates outlandish extension for a pitcher his size, averaging just under seven feet. That said, there’s a good amount of effort present, which is something to watch moving forward.

Levonas’ fastball velocity ticked up into the upper-90s this spring, peaking at 101 MPH with cut/ride shape through the zone. Despite the velocity and shape combination, Levonas has yet to miss bats at a high clip because of lackluster fastball command, which he’ll need to focus on.

That said, his feel to spin and shape his breaking balls is fantastic. Levonas’ low-80s curveball is a hammer, averaging north of 2,700 RPM with fantastic bite and depth present. It’s a true plus pitch that Levonas likes to lean upon often. His mid-80s slider has significant sweep with spin rates similar to the curveball, and an upper-80s cutter is a great pitch that gives him a firmer option to throw in the zone. He can land all three breaking balls for strikes. A firm low-90s change-up finalizes the arsenal, acting like a two-seam fastball at times with spin-killing traits.

Levonas will need to evolve as a pitcher by tightening his command, but his frame and traits are incredibly enticing for a player development program.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Cutter: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Change: 45 | Command: 45

 

8. Trent Grindlinger – C,1B

HT/WT: 6’3/211 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Tennessee | Hometown: Huntington Beach, CA | Projected Age: 20.11

Grindlinger was a highly touted prepster at Huntington Beach, ranking just outside the Top 200 in our 2025 rankings, but he landed at Tennessee after not hearing his name called. Despite a logjam behind the plate, he cracked the lineup full time in April and never looked back, racking up 14 extra-base hits from April 3rd onward. Now a draft-eligible sophomore, he’s ready to take on a full-time role for the Volunteers.

A big, burly hitter, Grindlinger pairs brute strength and solid bat-to-ball skills. He hasn’t changed his swing mechanics a ton since high school, maintaining a slightly crouched stance with a high handset pre-swing. It’s a short, compact swing with explosive bat speed, and his ability to live on the barrel stood out down the stretch.

Grindlinger has yet to sell out for pull-side power, rather lacing line drives up the middle and to the opposite field with ferocity. He has posted plus exit velocities, but he will need to add more loft to his swing. He pairs the power with very good contact skills in the zone, but he can get jumpy on spin and expand the zone at a high clip. We’ll see how the offense progresses across a full season, but the upside is high.

His athleticism has improved, and most scouts believe he can withstand the demands of catching. He has solid catch-and-throw skills and arm strength, though he needs to refine his blocking, receiving, and agility. He will get ample opportunities behind the dish in 2027, and if the defense improves, that will help his case.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50

 

9. Chase Fralick – C,1B

HT/WT: 6’2/227 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: Auburn | Hometown: Peachtree City, GA | Projected Age: 21.10

Once committed to Virginia on a tennis scholarship, the Peachtree City product has been one of the premier hitters in the SEC since arriving at Auburn.

A career .324 hitter, Fralick has always had feel for the barrel and natural feel for the zone. Arguably the biggest progression from year one to year two was his power, jumping from 4 home runs to 20 while cutting his groundball rate and increasing his flyball rate by 10 percentage points to 33% in 2026.

Standing 6-foot-2, Fralick provides a physical frame behind the dish that has taken big strides defensively, specifically with pitch framing. He displays really intriguing arm strength to bases, throwing out nearly 40% of runners who attempted to steal in 2026. Against southpaws, Fralick does his best damage middle-in, while he succeeds more often middle-away against right-handers. He consistently puts together professional at-bats, knowing when to let an A-swing rip and when to shorten up and move baserunners.

Whether Fralick catches at the next level is up for debate, as he’ll likely play a corner infield spot then. That said, you know what you’re getting offensively: a high-floor bat with an instinctive approach, contact skills, and a track record of production.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 30 | Field: 45 | Arm: 55

 

10. Ryan McPherson – RHP

HT/WT: 6’3/215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Mississippi State | Hometown: Hollywood, FL | Projected Age: 21.6

One of Mississippi State’s most reliable relievers as a freshman, McPherson made the jump into the rotation and shined before an unfortunate injury derailed his campaign. That said, he came back down the stretch and pitched well at USA Collegiate National Team training camp in June and July.

 

McPherson’s game is built around power. He has a workhorse frame with abundant strength, and he brings solid athleticism on the mound with uptempo mechanics. McPherson’s fastball is strong, sitting in the mid-90s with considerable life through the zone. He’ll add and subtract horizontal action, but one thing stays constant: he has impressive carry and ride due to backspin created at release. McPherson has no issue commanding the baseball on the top rail, and he’ll bully the opposition in that manner.

To pair with the heater, McPherson has a plus kick-change that he sells extremely well. Sitting in the upper-80s, it’s an extremely low-spin offering with tunneling traits, confidence, and shape manipulation. It’s a true out pitch, boasting a 49% whiff and 40% chase rate in 2026. McPherson wraps up his arsenal with two power breaking balls: a potent upper-80s cutter/slider hybrid and a mid-80s downer curveball. Both offerings have above-average upside, landing them for strikes and getting whiffs below the zone.

A strike-thrower through and through, McPherson projects as a starter at the next level, and a darn good one at that.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Change: 60 | Command: 50

 

FOR THE REST OF JUST BASEBALL’S TOP 50 LIST - https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb-draft/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/

MACK – Three more possibilities for Mets first pick

 

We continue with three more players that easily could be available when the Mets pick in the first round of the 2027 draft:

 

Chase Fuller - SS/RHP - Lincoln HS (Fla.)

6-3/205 – RHH

Career – 100-G, .313/.470/.488, 8-HR, 47-RBI

    2026 -  . 35-G, .327/.514

Son of NFL star, Corey Fuller.

Perfect Game ranked him as the number one high school prospect in this draft. Baseball America has him as a 5-star prospect.

Offense wise, straight stance with short stride. Rotates violently behind his lead leg with a remarkably quick barrel through the zone. Swings hard and has big bat speed. Not much swing-and-miss… yet. Exit speed clocked at 103. Owns some of the best raw power for the HS class eligible in this draft. Potential for 30+ home run seasons. Also, fast. 6.39 second 60-yard dash.

Defense wise, arm strength is his top tool. Does throw a fastball up to 99, so there is a possibility of him being a 2-way player. Primarily a shortstop but is projected to move to third as he beefs up.

Pitching wise, used as a closer. Fastball is primary pitch.

Me?

First, if the Mets want to draft Fuller, they better pick early. This is one of the top players in this season’s crop of elite players.

Steans is well known for picking ‘the best player available’ but even he might admit that the current Mets have enough middle infield prospects for a while. Add to that the fact that the Mes don’t develop two-way players plus you would never ‘waste’ a first round pick on a reliever, I would pass here and move on to one of the other top players in this draft.

 

Carter Hadnot, SS, Aquinas HS (Calif.)

18/yrs, old - 6-2/175 – SWH –

Perfect Game had him ranked as the 5^th top HS prospect for this draft. Baseball America has him as a 5-start prospect.

Offense wise, medium, straight stance from both sides. Knee raised trigger. Very fast hands. Keen ability to back-spin the ball. Short, quick swing from both sides. Right now, contact over power but that will change in the future. Little more polished on the left side. Flatter swing on right. 6.54-60yd. Lots of physical projection remains.

Defense wise, pure middle-fielder. Fluid movements through the ball. Plenty of arm strength and more to come. Quick, twitchy hands. Projected to be a high-level defender. One of the top defensive infielders in the draft. Should stick on short.

Will be 19.2 on draft day. Announced on 10-20 that he was committed to Oklahoma which makes you wonder if he will opt out of the draft. I mean, why commit this late and then turn pro?

Me?

Again, I don’t need to draft a shortstop this early. Plus, in this NIL world, he can go to school and hone his craft there.

Hadnot is very talented, but I would pass.

 

Kinon Bastian, OF/2B, The First Academy (Fla.)

17/years old - 5-11/180 – RHH

33-G, .397, .529-OBP, 31-H, 18-RBI, 35-R

Lean and strong athlete. Compact build who runs well. MVP in 17U UBC East. Perfect Game grade: 10.

Offense wise, pretty swing and potential plus raw power. Medium, open stance. Regular 100+ EV's. 6.67 runner in the sixty. 101.8 exit velo. Standout bat speed and power. Power to all fields. One of fastest hands in draft class. Highly athletic with a strong combination of speed and strength.

Defense wise, solid arm. Center field athleticism and speed. Outfield throws low-to-mid 90s. Overall, rates as a solid defender in the outfield with a strong arm.

Me?

I love strong defensive outfielders so Bastion checks that box. The only downside I see here is no one is bragging on the amount of home runs he had at the high school level. Still, he shows power to all the fields and time plus development can create more balls going over the walls of baseball.

I would consider drafting Kinon and would assign a scout to follow him closely during his senior year.

Tom Brennan - My Mets Prospects #16 Thru #20

 

TODAY, THE 16-20 FIVE!

Here we go with…

Three oft-injured position players, and 2 control-strong pitchers (but no partridge in a pear tree).

16) D’Andre Smith 

Smith I probably have ranked too high here, but when he finally got healthy and on a roll in August and September, he hit .290/.370/.495 needs to sustain his late 2026 surge into 2027. 

His 32 games in AAA, he hit .294/.389/.505 with just 24 Ks plus 14 walks. He stole 20 of 23 in 70 games in 2026. He is a solid outfield defender and can also handle 2B if needed. I wish he had 130 games in 2026, to better gauge him. 

He’s 25, 5’9” 180, and was the 149th overall pick in 2022. I could conceivably see the righty bat as a versatile, cheap 5th outfielder, potentially, in 2027. 

To possibly get there?  Stay healthy.

17) Trey Snyder 

Not to be confused with Dee Snider of Twisted Sister, or Trea Turner, Trey Snyder was injured for much of early 2026.

But the 20 year old, the 144th overall pick in 2024, had a strong second half.  His stat line in 75 games in 2026, some of which were in Brooklyn, was .289/.348/.392. 

He stole 28 of 32, and 69 of 81 in 190 games in 2025 and 2026.

He's played 2nd, 3rd, a little SS, and the outfield, displaying Super Joe versatility.  He will either start out in AA Binghamton or get more seasoning in Brooklyn first.  

Projection? Future utility player, most likely, unless he has a big break out in 2027 at age 21.  

Not small - he is a 6’1”, 200 righty hitter.  I see a big 2027 for Snyder.

18) Boston Baro 

Baro, an overslot 8th rounder in 2023 out of high school, got hurt late in 2025, and it carried over for nearly all of 2026.

He hit well in his 11 games in 2026, but just 11 games is not good. This ain’t football.

The prior season, at age 20 and all in Brooklyn, the lefty-hitting 6 footer Baro hit just .224 in 103 games, stealing 28 of 30 bases.

He needs to get healthy and really strut his stuff in 120+ games in 2027. 

Off to Arizona he goes, and hopefully he tears it up there during the rest of the AFL season. (Slow start, but 2 hits, including a HR and 4 RBIs, in a recent AFL game).

19) Gary Gill Hill 

I am totally over the Hill in favor of Hill. Why? Control.

You see, everyone loves his control. Will Hill be a righty Zac Thornton?

Like Zac, Hill is not a flamethrower, but he is effective nonetheless. 

He was acquired at the trade deadline, having been a 6th round pick by the Rays out of high school in 2022.

Just 29 walks in 140 innings, but 160 hits allowed, pitching as a 21 year old. His low pitch counts allowed him to go 9-3, in 26 starts, in an era of low win, low innings-per-start minor league starters. He had a 4.25 ERA in part because his ERA was 5.50 in his 5th, 6th, and 7th innings. 

PLEASE PASS GILL HILL AN EXTRA PORTION OF STAMINA!

In 5 post-trade starts with AA Binghamton, he was 2-0, 3.76, and in a single AAA start, he allowed just one run over 5 innings.

He surrendered a high 35 home runs over 276 innings in 2025 and 2026, but again, that was at ages 20 and 21. 

I can see him pitching for the Mets at some point in 2027. 

Seems he is a future SP-4 or SP-5.

I probably should have switched Hill to # 16 and moved D’Andre Smith down to # 19, but, no matter: 

It is what the duo achieves in 2027 that will ultimately count.

20) Garrett Stratton 

Stratton quietly (to me, anyway) was an an excellent reliever in 2026. 

A 20th rounder in 2025, I just had to rank him as my #20 here.

Stratton turned 23 this August. The 6’2”, 200 righty reliever went 5-5, 2.51, with 8 saves, an eye-catching 87 Ks in 65 IP, and a 1.08 WHIP. 

He had a 1.52 ERA in 23 AA outings, and 4 outings and 4 runs in 5.1 IP with Syracuse.

Keep climbing. 

I’d expect Stratton to see some opportunity in the NY Mets pen during 2027, which would be a very fast climb for a late round 2025 pick. An impressive final round selection indeed…good job by the draft team.

Next article up? My # 11 thru # 15. Onward and upward.

That’ it for today.