4/17/26

Reese Kaplan -- Is Carlos Mendoza Going to be Fired?


Back in 2024 the Mets made a somewhat curious hiring decision when they inked a deal with former Yankee coach Carlos Mendoza to take the helm as manager of the new David Stearns-led Mets.  He had no real major league managerial experience save for a few games as substitute manager when the primary was bounced by the umpire.  

It seemed an unusual choice considering the outgoing manager after the 2023 season was four time Manager of the Year and future Hall of Famer Buck Showalter.  Still, with a new front office looking to build for the long haul it was an interesting roll of the dice on someone who was likely going to have to go through an adjustment period before establishing himself as the field general to the players in his dugout.

His first year made Steve Cohen and David Stearns look like relative geniuses as he helped the club finish third in the division with an 89 win season and made it up to the NLCS game which left them within a hair’s breadth of making it to the World Series.  While everyone was understandably disappointed that the team didn’t progress to the game’s biggest stage, the naysayers were sufficiently suppressed that no one questioned Mendoza returning for the 2025 campaign.

Unfortunately the combination of injuries and slumps made the previous season’s team virtually unwatchable from June through the end of the year.  Not enough was done by the front office to impact the roster in a positive way and despite the Bad News Bears level of incompetence the club did manage to finish that terrible six months of baseball not with a playoff appearance but with a winning record of 83-79 which ironically was good enough for second in the division.  

Mendoza lost some of his converted fans but most understood that having nearly every starting pitcher, many relievers and countless position players hurt would have made it mighty difficult for even Earl Weaver to finish better than Mendoza did.

Then came the 2026 roster purge with free agency and trades breaking up the core that the club had relied upon for the past several years.  Gone were Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz among others.  The replacements bought in generated a mixed reaction where uncertainty vacillated with the excitement of Stearns producing his own roster that theoretically addressed the issues he identified as being in need of major improvement.

Thus far the newcomers — Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, rookie Carson Benge, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver — have not exactly set the world on fire.  Granted it’s only 19 games into a 162 game season but the whispers have already grown in frequency and volume that Carlos Mendoza is simply not the man for the job and should be the first highly visible pawn to fall.

Recently writer Will Sammon suggested that Mendoza is safe for now since he is not the one failing at the plate and on the mound.  His career managerial record is still over .500 and even a tough cookie like Tommy Pham gave an unsolicited endorsement of the preparatory work Mendoza has his club doing in anticipation of upcoming games. 

Stearns has not in his career done the mid-season termination of a manager but there’s a first time for everything.  The question is with Mendoza existing in the final year of his initial three year contract he may be treated like a free agent to be and pushed out the door while using someone else to create a new clubhouse culture and help put the team into a more winning direction than has been experienced since 2024 ended.


The huge question, of course, is who in the world would the Mets consider as a replacement sooner or at year’s end if they determine Mendoza has not demonstrated the output they had hoped to achieve.  The usual batch of decent unemployed managers exists but with them the experience also comes with set-in-his-way red flags which might need to be considered as an offsetting attribute.

Assuming Buck Showalter is not coming back and some of the other elder statesmen in semi-retirement are off the table, then in no particular order you have the following:

Bruce Bochy — Former Mets player Bochy is now 70 years old and despite having demonstrated a solid managerial record in his post-playing days, he would seem more like a one year temporary candidate for a team rather than a long term strategy.

Brandon Hyde — Bounced from Baltimore after turning them from perpetual cellar dwellers into a 100+ win team, Hyde is an interesting candidate.  After four straight terrible years he was able to get them to finish the 2022 season over .500.  He then made it into October baseball in 2023 and again in 2024.  He was fired by Baltimore just over 1/4 of the way through the 2026 season.  

He’s currently doing some front office advisory work for Tampa but is not managing at the moment.  He has 6+ seasons of major league managerial experience and is still young enough that he could be a longer term solution as skipper.

Dave Martinez — He’s another former manager still out there and likely for his track record.  Despite one highly positive season, his overall record in charge is 500-622 though whatever won/loss numbers he achieved with the less-than-stellar Washington Nationals should be taken with a whole silo of salt.  He’s in his early 60s but doesn’t jump off the page with the positive vibe the club would likely be seeking.

Bob Melvin — Veteran skipper Bob Melvin has done more good than bad as a manager but is again on the outside looking in for his next gig.  His career numbers are a .514 winning percentage having won 1676 games while losing 1588.  During his 23 years as a manager he’s had eight playoff appearances and would certainly add authority as a veteran who doesn’t easily get rattled but that similar profile from Buck Showalter didn’t exactly work out too well.

There are two highly visible in-house candidates who come with some of their own baggage and lack of experience:

Edgardo Alfonzo — Team icon Alfonso worked with the Brooklyn Cyclones as a bench coach for three seasons before being tapped to be the manager.  For the next three years he did well, including a championship for the team before new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen terminated him as he wanted to earmark his own direction with personnel he selected personally from other respected organizations such as the Boston Red Sox.  

Fonzie has not gotten another MLB-affiliated managerial gig since then other than a woeful 2022 trial as manager of the Staten Island Ferry Hawks which ended after a single season.  It would be an odd albeit good headline news type of transaction as he is unknown for his managerial tenure to Steven Cohen nor to David Stearns. 

Carlos Beltran — Back at the end of 2019 the Mets hired former All Star player Beltran to be their new manager but reversed course a few months later due to the publicity surrounding the sign stealing scandal of the Houston Astros where he was a central figure as ballplayer at the time.  

Sufficient time has likely passed to allow the club to look beyond that incident and in fact the Mets currently employ Beltran as Special Assistant to the President of Baseball Operations working in the front office as the right hand man to David Stearns.  Whether they see his future with the organization on the field or in the executive office is still unknown but he is another positive headline generation option for them to consider.

For now, however, it would seem that Carlos Mendoza is the guy in charge in the dugout.  Whether or not a change will be made has much to do with the club’s record moving forward and how much of it is attributable to perceived loss of clubhouse control or flawed on-the-field decision making. 

Tom Brennan - Tasty Mets Tidbits for Your Friday AM

TOM’S TASTY TIDBITS 

Sometimes, you presume amiss.

I thought Binghamton would be a game in, game out juggernaut.

But they’ve lost 2 straight 7 inning games, totaling 0 runs and 4 hits. Maybe just an early season fluke.

Only AJ Ewing and Chris Suero have been commendable offensively so far.


St Lucie? Lost 8-6.

Nate Lavender gave up 5 runs in 1.1 innings, made worse by his reliever allowing all 3 runners to score and accrue to Nate’s ledger account.

Great news. Dylan Ross appeared, throwing a scoreless frame. 13 pitches, 9 strikes, no Ks.

Salgado, Zayas and Benson each are hitting well for the Lucites and each had two hits, and one of Benson’s hits cleared that pesky outfield wall.

Branny de Oleo also hit his first, and my guy Randy Guzman crushed his 3rd dinger in 2 games. Wow.


Brooklyn? Lost 7-6. They have however started to rake. Still just .184, but up 42 points in 3 games. Just 25 Ks over the last 4 games, a major improvement, and an improving .310 team OBP. Gutierrez has a .444 OBP, with just 6 Ks in 45 PAs.

Colin Houck had 3 hits, including two doubles, and his teammate Antonio Jimenez smacked his 2nd rocket of the season and added another hit.

Alan Minter tossed a solid frame, allowing an unearned run.


Syracuse? On a hot mid-April day in NYC and LI, close to 90 degrees, Syracuse further upstate got rained out.


The Mets licked their wounds and headed to Wrigley Field for a 3 game series. Pete Crow Armstrong, the ex-Met, is hitting just .236, but is 5 for 13 in his last 3 games.

Sorry, Ernie Banks, let’s NOT play two. One game per day is more than enough, thanks.


Edwin Diaz didn’t feel right after an outing on April 10, so he sat out the recent Mets-Dodgers series.  No sweat…the Dodgers swept them anyway.


THINGS HAPPEN IN THREES

Going into the final week of spring training, everything looked nice and Rosie in the outfield. But, as we all know, whether you hate clichés or not, things happen in threes. 

So in the space of three weeks, outfielders Mike Tauchman, Juan Soto, and Jared Young all go down with lengthy injuries. Pretty insane.


“ALL TIME GREAT”

WHILE THE METS WERE GROVELING OUT IN LOS ANGELES, THE OTHER LA TEAM, THE ANGELS,HAS A SUPERSTAR WHO IS OFTEN INJURED, BUT WHEN HE’S NOT, HE’S STILL GREAT.

Mike Trout hit five home runs in four games against the Yankees in the Bronx this week. Aaron Judge called Trout an all-time great. What a shame that he’s been injured so much the last half a dozen years.


Finally, in the “Seller’s Remorse section” of this article:

The Brewers won 2-1 against the Blue Jays Thursday, behind a dominant ex-Met Brandon Sproat start (6.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 run).




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4/16/26

Tom Brennan - A Fun Part of New Seasons is Seeing Exciting New Prospect Names

Sam Robertson


NEW SEASON, NEW NAMES, NEW EXCITEMENT

Every year, you see minor league players who catch your attention, perhaps for the first time.

Nicolas Carreno is one for me.

He was traded from the Pirates to the Mets in exchange for tall lefty Josh Walker. 

The 5’10” 19 year old lefty Carreno was FLAT OUT WILD before this season, with 64 walks in 72 innings. Lots of Ks, too, but oy vey, those walks!

Well, times change - on Wednesday for St Lucie, he went 3.1 IP, allowing just one hit and one walk, fanning 7. So this season, he now has thrown 8 innings, walked just 2 and fanned SIXTEEN. WOW!

Looks like a possible great trade for the Mets.

He wasn’t up against a weak hitting opponent, as the next few Lucie pitchers surrendered 15 runs in 3 innings, with three straight 5 run innings. 

Final score, 17-13. The winner heads to the Sugar Bowl!

Ahh, it happens. 

Carreno’s younger St Lucie teammate, budding star Elian Peña, is off to a blistering start. He got on base 3 more times last night with a double, walk, and a HBP. A .413 OBP.

His “older” teammate, “my guy” 20/year old Randy Guzman, had started the season slowly, but got it cranking big time, as he cracked a double and TWO HRs on Wednesday, with 5 RBIs. My guy.

2B Sam Robertson? A .500 OBP!

Elsewhere, Christian Scott was sharp for 5.1 IP, allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and fanning 5, but the Yankees farm team won 4-1. I’d say Scott is READY.  One of the two runs was on a pop double to short center.

In Brooklyn, facing a strong hitting Greensboro on a warm day, the pen surrendered 12 runs total in the 6th and 8th innings. Trace Willhoite, a position player, however, tossed a Perfect 9th on 8 pitches! 15-4 loss.

Daiverson Gutierrez, the 20 year old catcher bonus baby, got on base 3 times with a hit and 2 walks, and is rolling with a .425 OBP.

Binghamton started late. Thornton was great, but Bingo could only amass one hit by Kevin Parada in a 3-0, 7 inning loss. 

The major league match up was another nice tete a tete…Holmes vs. Ohtani. Ohtani is a tough guy to try to end a 7 game losing streak against. 

Holmes was great. Devin Williams was soundly spanked. Ohtani was supreme. Mets lose 8-2. 8 straight Ls.

Off to Wrigley Field for 3 before the trip is finito. Can they rally?

Alex Rubinson - It Might be Time to Retire the Fastball Freddy Nickname

After coming into the league, Freddy Peralta quickly claimed the nickname Fastball Freddy. The former Milwaukee Brewer has been known for his electric fastball and is the pitch that has defined his career. In his first few starts, Peralta has been a serviceable starter for the Mets rotation, pitching to a 3.86 ERA. His production has been solid, but one could argue he’s been a tad bit disappointing considering he was tasked with being the team’s ace in 2026. Despite what his raw uninspiring numbers might suggest, there should be plenty of optimism that the hurler will turn things around, and it’s not due to the pitch that has been his calling card.


Anything needs to be taken with a grain of salt this early in the season, so of course these trends could fizzle out this time next month, but it does bear watching. In his first four starts to begin the season, Peralta is still relying heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, while his changeup and curveball make up for the majority of the remaining half of his pitches. Peralta should do what makes him comfortable and confident, but if the recent trends continue, it might be time to tweak his arsenal. 


Currently, Peralta has a pitching run value of three, good to be in the 80th percentile. Although his fastball contributes a plus one, his offspeed run value is an impressive plus three (his breaking stuff is below average at negative one). His offspeed run value is in the 97th percentile of all major league pitchers. Hitters are currently batting a disgusting .091 against his changeup. That low number also represents the slugging percentage against that pitch. Maybe things will even out as the weather warms up and we get a larger sample size, but if opponents were slugging .091 against one particular pitch, wouldn’t you convince the pitcher to increase its usage?


Again, one can argue that the sample is too small, but the expected numbers back it up as well. Sure, the expected batting average climbs all the way up to .170, but it still does show that he should be throwing his changeup more than a quarter of the time. These expected numbers are due to hitters not being able to square it up. Currently, Peralta’s changeup has manufactured an average exit velocity of 78 MPH and a launch angle of six. That is less than half of the launch angle of his four-seam fastball. He has given up two singles on the pitch with no extra-base hits to begin the year on his changeup. 


In addition to making the changeup more of a primary pitch, he might be underutilizing his curveball as well. The numbers don’t stand out nearly as much, and I don’t think Peralta should be dramatically increasing the number of curveballs thrown unlike his changeup, but the metrics show Peralta’s curveball should improve with a large sample size. As of now, his .471 opponent slugging on the curveball will give fans and pitchers pause when tossing that pitch, but his expected slugging is nearly 200 points lower at .280. Among his three main pitches in his repertoire, his curveball has the largest whiff rate at over 35%. Meanwhile, his fastball sits seven percent lower and is the lowest of his three main pitches. Similarly to the slugging percentage, opponents have a wOBA of .352 versus the curveball, but the xwOBA is much lower at .276. 


Now that we broke down how Peralta’s secondary stuff might actually be better than what his nickname would suggest, let’s discuss that famous fastball he has. His fastball is still a good pitch. His fastball run value is still in the 68th percentile, which is good, but it’s probably not as elite as one would think given his reputation. We actually see the reverse pattern with his fastball. His .257 opponent batting average ..371 slugging are solid numbers, but the underlying statistics show that as the weather warms up and the ball starts flying farther, those numbers might inflate. 


His expected opponent’s average is nearly 30 points higher and the expected slugging checks in at almost .460. It’s also not super encouraging that the xWOBA against that pitch is slightly over .375. These numbers certainly don’t scream ace of a world series contender. 


With Peralta throwing his fastball far more often than his other pitches, it’s fair to give that pitch the benefit of the doubt, but with how dominant his changeup has been and how the curveball has worked as well, it is fair to wonder if someone needs to get in Peralta’s ear and tell him to tweak his repertoire. 


Finally, I did want to touch on his slider. He has thrown the pitch a grand total of two dozen times this season. We can take away anything remotely meaningful from such a tiny sample. It is a pitch that fans should keep an eye on. He has not surrendered a hit on the pitch and has recorded a strikeout. The nearly 86% whiff rate is certainly due to the lack of times throwing it, but it is certainly worth seeing if that pitch can play at a high level when working it more into your arsenal.


I already touched on how his curveball is a really solid pitch, but Peralta does have a negative run value on his breaking stuff. Although I don’t expect that to continue, the implementation of a slider just to give hitters another pitch to think about should not only help his breaking ball numbers, but it can have a positive effect on every other pitch as well. As long as he is comfortable with his arsenal, a new pitch should only help keep hitters off balance. 


Fastball Freddy was one of the biggest additions the Mets made this past offseason. David Stearns knows Peralta as well as anyone from their time in Milwaukee together. He figured he was getting a bonafide ace and frontline starter. As the season continues through its early stages, that still might be the case, but if Peralta is going to take his game to new heights, it might be time to tinker with his sequencing. After all, hitters game plan knowing they have a 50% chance of getting on the heater, so they can sit on it. Imagine if that was no longer the case. Maybe it truly is solely because of the sample size, but for Justin Willard and company, it is definitely something worth exploring.


Paul Articulates – It is never over in April


The New York Mets are reeling on a current 7 game losing streak (as of Tuesday night) and still have to play four more away games against the dominant Dodgers and the contending Cubs.  It certainly feels like a dire situation because we don’t have any other reference point on this current roster to justify that they can do better.  But April is very far from October, and this Mets team still has time to prove that David Stearns’ roster build can do the job.

Why do I say that?  Well, all teams go through their ups and downs.  This just happens to be a down before the up.  It is very far from the worst losing streak in Mets history which was 17 games long in 1962 by one of the most hapless teams in Mets’ history.

Losing 7 in a row does not put them in the category of hapless or even hopeless.  The last Mets team to reach the World Series  lost 7 in a row in June 2015 but went on a huge tear after the trade deadline which energized the whole city.  So, let’s all acknowledge that “frustrating” is not “finished”.  One could argue that the 1986 team never lost 7 in a row, but at this point no one would compare this team to the ’86 dynasty.  

Despite our current disappointment, all of us were able to find hopeful aspects of this roster before the season, and there is no reason that those aspects won’t play out by the time we reach September.  We know that the pressure to meet those expectations is certainly working against the players in their current state.   That pressure will give way to forward momentum on a single event – whether that is a late inning walk-off or a game-saving defensive gem.  I can’t predict whether that event will happen tonight or this weekend or next week.  But when the upturn comes, we will have a reference point on what “good” looks like to more fairly weigh this team’s chances at the end of the season.

So much like baseball players grind through the difficult times, we as fans must grind through the current streak, anxiously awaiting the event that will turn this team’s psyche into a positive vibe.  And then, every one of us will be yelling, “Let’s Go Mets”!


4/15/26

RVH - The Lindor Lag

 

It’s become an annual ritual in Queens, and by now, it shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Through 15 games, Francisco Lindor looks out of sync at the plate again. The surface line jumps out for all the wrong reasons: a .546 OPS and zero RBIs.

We’ve seen this before.

If you go back year by year, Lindor’s first 15 games have rarely told you where he’s going to finish. But they do tell you exactly where the team is at the moment.

Here’s the baseline:

Season

Age

Team W-L

15-G OPS

Full Season OPS

2021

27

6–9

.421

.734

2022

28

10–5

.967

.788

2023

29

9–6

.867

.806

2024

30

7–8

.426

.844

2025

31

8–7

.711

.812

2026

32

7–8

.546

TBD

The pattern is consistent.

When Lindor ignites early, the Mets separate. When he lags, they hover.

And yet, the second half of that table tells the other story. The finish almost always normalizes at a high level. The slow start isn’t the destination.

But it does define the present.


Start with where Lindor is right now.

Even in this lag, he hasn’t collapsed. He’s drawn 10 walks, scored 10 runs, and continues to control the strike zone. He’s not chasing, not pressing, not turning a slow start into something worse.

He’s holding the floor.

That matters over 162.

But this Mets team isn’t built to live at the floor.

It’s built to separate.

And that’s where the timing of this lag becomes more important than the lag itself.

Take a step back and look at the system around him.

Juan Soto is out. Multiple position players are scuffling. There are more mental errors than you expect from a veteran group. Players are learning new positions on the fly.

And the pitching, which carried the team early, is no longer fully stabilizing it.

The rotation was a clear strength through the first turn, but over the last couple you’re starting to see cracks. Outings are getting shorter, command less consistent. At the same time, the bullpen has lost some reliability, with Luke Weaver struggling in back-to-back appearances.

Put it together, and you get a team that’s not syncing.

  • The offense has gone cold

  • When runs show up, the pitching doesn’t consistently hold

  • Defensive sharpness has slipped

  • Wins aren’t stringing, and losses aren’t being stopped

That’s not collapse. That’s drift. And this is where Lindor’s role changes.

When the system is aligned, he can be one of many drivers. When the system is out of sync, he has to become the stabilizer and the accelerator at the same time.

Right now, he’s only doing the first part. He’s getting on base. Managing the strike zone. Avoiding further damage. But he’s not yet forcing alignment.

And when your central player is in neutral while the rest of the system is drifting, the team settles exactly where this one has — around .500, without traction.

That’s what makes this version of the Lindor Lag different. Not the performance itself.

The context around it.

Because the Mets are about to head into a demanding road stretch against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs — two teams that expose lack of execution quickly.

This isn’t a stretch where you can wait for things to click.

At some point, someone has to force it.

Historically, Lindor gets there. The track record says the bat will come, the production will normalize, and the full version of the player will show up.

But until he shifts from managing his at-bats to controlling the game, the system will keep doing what it’s doing now.

Fumbling, Stumbling.

The Mets aren’t broken, yet. But they’re not yet aligned. Time will tell.

And in this version of the season, the difference between those two states runs directly through Lindor. 

I really hope that he snaps out of it - soon.