Cautious Optimist - The Biomechanics of Pitching and Hitting: Part I (The Kinematic Sequence)

And now for something completely different

In a number of posts and comments, I have introduced terms related to body movements that figure in baseball as well as in other sports, especially golf, where I have a bit more expertise.  By comparison to golf, baseball has adopted technologies like Trackman, GC Quad, and Force Plates late in the day, and while this has given baseball instructors the benefit of not making some of the mistakes that early adopters among golf coaches have made, most will invariably find themselves struggling to identify the right balance between what experience teaches and what the numbers 'say.'

In this post (Part I), I focus on the so-called kinematic sequence, and do so through a series of videos I have made for this purpose.  There are four videos in this post.  The first explains what the kinematic sequence is.  The second explains how to analyze pitching motions in terms of the kinematic sequence.  The third focuses on the kinematic sequence in hitting.  The fourth does not strictly focus on the kinematic sequence, but more on the physics of swinging a bat to help us understand how the biomechanics work with the physics to create efficient and powerful swinging motions. 

Part II focuses on explaining some of the comments I have made about Jonah Tong's pitching technique and areas of concern I have brought up regarding Francisco Alvarez's swing mechanics.  I and others have taken note of Vientos's struggles regarding both pitch recognition and his relatively steep angle of attack.  Though I have nothing useful to say about how to enhance one's capacity to recognize pitches,  I can demonstrate ways of shallowing a steep swing, including the way that Aaron Judge has done so. 

Each section below identifies the goal of the video that is linked to it and a number of key ideas I am hoping to get across through the videos.  I apologize for lack of production value in these videos.  I shot them inside the room in which I normally give golf lessons, and work on my own game.

The kinematic sequence

Key ideas from video.  Think of the body as a system.  Think of pressure from the ground as an input into the system.  Think of the end of the action, throwing a ball, swinging a bat, hitting a tennis ball with a racket as the system's output.  The body/system's job is to recruit the pressure/energy from the ground and transfer it efficiently through various movements of the body, increase the energy and then release that energy which has been recruited, transferred and multiplied, to have the most efficient and greatest impact on the output.  The most familiar model for analyzing how the body/system does this is called the kinematic sequence.  The kinematic sequence is not an uncontroversial model for explaining how the body recruits, transfers and releases energy, but it is at the very least a powerful heuristic device.

https://youtube.com/shorts/8mFtu1B-Azs?feature=share

The kinematic sequence in pitching

Key ideas from video:  Pressure moves forward laterally as arm goes backwards and body-- trail side glutes and shoulder -- load.  Lead leg becomes brace around which lead hop/pelvis rotates, then stops, throwing shoulders and arm structure forward, then ultimately arm moves adding additional acceleration and then wrist goes from flexion to extension to release ball.

https://youtu.be/PdkBwe_E3Tc

The kinematic sequence in hitting  

Key ideas in video: Same sequence as pitching, working from the ground up, starting with recruiting energy through the ground into the system.  Most important difference is that in pitching only one arm is involved centrally in the sequence, thus giving it significantly more range of motion than in hitting where both arms are involved because both hands are required to hold the bat.  Therefore the relationship of the arms to one another -- their structure -- is integral to developing an efficient motion.

https://youtube.com/shorts/zZ5JmTsSvO4?feature=share

Physics and the importance of keeping the bat (and its center of gravity or balance point) above and inside the hands

Key ideas in video: Keeping the balance point or center of gravity of the bat inside and above the hands allows the kinematic sequence to throw the bat head into the hitting zone efficiently where force can then placed on the handle that can multiply speed through the zone. There are a number of concepts at work in this motion that I do not discuss in this video, especially having to do with the direction of the force that is applied at the handle of the bat once the momentum of the bat moves its balance point outside the hands. If viewers are interested, I will offer further explanations on another occasion.

https://youtu.be/C_imXB0k34E

Summary

My goal has been to provide an introduction in laymen's terms to some of the concepts that have become more familiar in the contemporary baseball analysis lexicon as coaches have increased their reliance on modern technology as part of their player development strategies.  Hopefully the videos help.  Please feel free to ask any questions you may have in the comments and I will try my best to answer them.  

Previewing the Mets' Spring Breakout Game

Of all the things that MLB has done over the last decade to "grow the game," one of my favorites has been the addition of the Spring Breakout game. Where all 30 teams get a game dedicated to show off their top MiLB talent. The Mets will be playing the Rays' top prospects on Thursday, March 19th. Let's break down the roster and which top prospects are worth tuning in for.

Position Players:

INF A.J Ewing:

Perhaps no Met prospect had a better Spring Training in MLB camp than A.J Ewing. The 21-year-old infielder made the most of his opportunity, batting .381 in ten games. He had three doubles, a home run, six RBIs, and three walks. That totaled up to a 1.090 OPS. Ewing was demoted to Minor League camp over the weekend, but we might be seeing him again in a Met uniform this year, and this time, in Queens. He is the crown jewel and top Met prospect (No. 4) participating in the Spring Breakout game.

1B Ryan Clifford:

After hitting 29 MiLB home runs in 2025, Ryan Clifford supplies the power for this Met Breakout lineup. He struggled over his Spring Training season, going just 2-for-20 with two RBIs and three walks. The spring breakout game will be a perfect opportunity for some redemption for Clifford before the MiLB season begins. 

3B Jacob Reimer: 

One of 2025's biggest breakout prospects for the Mets will now play in the Breakout game. Jacob Reimer rocketed from the bottom of the Mets prospect list all the way to number six to start 2026. Reimer brings power and contact to the Breakout game and will man the hot corner. He posted an OPS of .804 during his stint in MLB Spring Training.

SS Elian Pena: 

For many, this will be the first time we get to watch Elian Peña outside of the few DSL highlights we saw of him from last summer. The Mets' top International free agent signing in 2025, the 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic, will have his chance to impress fans and Mets' Executives alike on Thursday.

Peña posted an OPS of .949 during his DSL season last year, and mashed nine home runs, swiped 21 bases, and drove in 33 runs. So far, he's living up to the hype, and now, we'll get to see how he shines on what is, to date, his biggest stage.

Pitchers:

RHP Jack Wenninger: 

The best Met pitching prospect in this game, by ranking, is Jack Wenninger (No. 7), with Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong not participating in this year's breakout game. Wenninger has had a fine spring leading up to this game. In 6.2 innings, he had an ERA of 2.70 with ten strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.95.

That's coming off a successful 2025 campaign in Double-A, where he pitched to the tune of a 2.92 ERA in 26 starts with Binghamton, totaling 147 strikeouts and walking just 42 batters. We'll likely be seeing more of Wenninger late this season, and a bit further north than St. Lucie.

RHP Will Watson: 

Another Met pitching prospect that turned heads in 2025 was Will Watson. The Mets' seventh-round draft pick in 2024, Watson put up a 2.60 ERA across three MiLB levels, ending his 2025 season with Double-A Binghamton. He spent the most time in High-A Brooklyn, where in 63 innings of work, he turned in a 1.70 ERA with 77 strikeouts. 

Now ranked as the Mets' number 11 prospect, Watson will have his chance to shine in the Breakout game before likely starting his 2026 season with Double-A Binghamton.

LHP Jonathan Santucci: 

Met fans will get a look at their second-round draft pick from 2024 when Santucci takes the mound in the Breakout game. He's moved up the ranks of Met prospects to number ten. Between him, Wenninger, and Watson, the Mets hope their next wave of young pitching talent is right behind McLean and Tong. 

During his first professional season in 2025, Santucci was the most dominant once he got promoted to Double-A Binghamton. In ten starts and 50 innings of work, Santucci had a 4-0 record, with a 2.52 ERA, 63 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.020. 

Other Prospects Worth Watching:

Keep an eye out for lower-level prospects like Mitch Voit (No. 8) , the Mets first round pick in 2025, outfielder Randy Guzman (No. 25), who burst onto the scene last summer with a strong Low-A stint to end his season. Other pitchers to watch out for are relievers Dylan Ross (No. 19) and Ryan Lambert (No. 18).

MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #1 - RHSP - Jonah Tong

 

The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

One thing...

RHSP Nolan McLean is not on this list. Yes, he still is a prospect and is eligible for the Rookie Of The Year award, but I have "promoted" him past this level and is now a major league pitcher.

#1  -  Jonah Tong

GROK -

Jonah Tong is a 22-year-old right-handed starting pitcher for the New York Mets.

Born on June 19, 2003, in Markham, Ontario, Canada, he was selected by the Mets in the seventh round (209th overall) of the 2022 MLB Draft out of Georgia Premier Academy, signing for $226,000 instead of attending North Dakota State University.

At 6'1" and 180 pounds, Tong features a high over-the-top arm slot (64° in 2025, the highest among MLB starters), drawing frequent comparisons to Tim Lincecum due to his deceptive delivery and slight frame.

He made his MLB debut on August 29, 2025, against the Miami Marlins, striking out six over five innings in a win.

Tong's rapid rise saw him dominate the minors in 2025:

10-5 with a 1.43 ERA and 160 strikeouts (34.2% K-rate, tops among Mets farmhands) over 113⅔ innings before his call-up.

He threw a combined perfect game (6⅔ innings) at Double-A Binghamton on May 10, 2025, and went 2-0 with 17 strikeouts in 11⅔ scoreless Triple-A innings after promotion on August 11.

Pitch Repertoire

Tong's arsenal emphasizes north-south movement (pitches that rise or drop vertically), optimized by the Mets to fit his elite arm angle. His fastball and curveball form the core, with off-speed pitches added for balance against lefties. Here's a breakdown based on scouting reports and 2025 usage:

Four-Seam Fastball

93-96 (touches 98)

~50%

Elite "rising" action (+18 inches induced vertical break, top 5% in MLB); explosive carry with max extension for deception. Primary weapon for swings-and-misses up in the zone.

Curveball

78-82

~25%

12-6 hammer with extreme drop (17+ inches induced vertical movement, comparable to Max Fried or Yoshinobu Yamamoto); high spin rate for wipeout potential.

Changeup

85-88

~15% (added in 2025)

Filthy fade and tumble; improved vs. left-handed hitters (his second-most used pitch); generates weak contact.

Slider

84-87

~10%

Sweeper-style with lateral break; less emphasized but provides variety; horizontal movement to complement his vertical-heavy mix.

Tong's control has improved (3.4:1 K:BB ratio in 2024 minors), but MLB adjustments have highlighted command issues (e.g., 7 walks in 11⅔ IP early).

The Mets tweaked his fastball grip to a two-seam orientation for added depth without changing his release, enhancing its effectiveness. Overall, his stuff grades out as plus, with projection as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever by 2026 if command refines further. He's ranked as the Mets' No. 4 prospect (No. 2 pitcher) and No. 21 overall in MLB Pipeline's 2025 rankings.

 

10-23-25

Angry Mike/MM

Jonah Tong 

SCOUTING REPORT:

An uptick in Tong’s velocity was first noticed during the Spring Breakout Showcase in March, Tong flashed impressive upper 90s velocity which had not been seen before. His AAA debut was the first time I really noticed how much harder Tong was throwing, and what was really impressive was the fact the last 5 fastballs he threw had the same average velocity as the first 5 fastballs he threw, 96 MPH. 

Combining mid-high 90s velocity on his fastball with the elite I.V.B. will undoubtedly transform his 4-seamer from a 70 grade pitch into an 80 grade pitch in a year or two. As he continues to improve the ability to locate his 4-seamer, we will begin to see Tong duplicate the same dominant numbers from his 2025 minor league campaign, but this time wearing a Mets uniform.

As impressive as Tong’s fastball was during his 2025 season, his Vulcan changeup is what has most Tong supporters and baseball analysts truly on the edge of their seat. Prospect analysts who were tracking Tong’s starts noted his new Vulcan changeup had devastating potential, eerily similar to Devin Williams’ “Air Bender”, another Vulcan grip Changeup. His changeup was exhibiting elite traits, sharp fading action, elite metrics, and he was able to land it for strikes or use it to induce chance. The velocity range was 83-87 MPH, and it is a potential 65-70 scouting grade offering.

When a pitch generates ugly swings from a professional hitter, who don’t know it’s coming, that means it’s a nasty and a pitch hitters began to watch tape and prepare for. When a certain pitch produces ugly swings from professional hitters even though they have a good idea it’s coming, that means it deserves a nickname…

Tong still flashed the same above average curveball he used to dominate hitters during his 2024 campaign, that registered above average spin rates and over 60 inches of vertical break. He simply didn’t use his curveball as much as I thought he would during the 2025 season, and raising the pitch’s velocity will make it considerably harder for hitters to track its spin at the MLB level.

What I’d really like to see is Tong scrap his traditional slider for a sweeper. I think adding a pitch that offers sharp, horizontal break that is slightly slower than his changeup, and that has its on unique pitch shape that is loopier could be a devastating addition to his arsenal. Everything Tong throws for the most part attacks hitters on north to south trajectories, getting hitters to start worrying about pitches breaking east to west will make harder for them to anticipate what to expect and easier for them to guess wrong more often.

 

11-7-2025  -  Just Baseball

3. Jonah Tong – RHP – (MLB)

Height/Weight: 6’1″, 180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 7th Round (209), NYM (2022) | ETA: 2026

Tong was the breakout arm in the Mets system for 2024, riding a nearly two tick leap with his fastball to a 3.03 ERA in 113 IP with a ridiculous 34% strikeout rate across mostly Low and High-A. The stuff was even better in 2025, catapulting Tong into the conversation with some of the better pitching prospects in the upper minors.

Arsenal

A unique, over-the-top release and slight cross-fire delivery make Tong an uncomfortable at-bat for hitters. Tong enjoyed another uptick with his fastball in 2025, now averaging 95 MPH the pitch plays up further for Tong as he averages more than 19 inches of induced vertical break from a release height slightly above six feet.

With the carry and deception, Tong dominates within the zone, generating elite whiff rates, while also getting chase at the top. An even bigger development than the uptick in velocity has been Tong’s changeup in 2025. Sitting in the mid-80s, the pitch is difficult to pick up out of his hand. It averages roughly 20 inches of total separation from the fastball, one of the highest marks in MiLB.

Tong’s downer curve ball in the upper 70s flashes above average, but his inconsistent feel for it makes it difficult to rely on. When he is able to locate it, it’s a strong third offering.

Tong made progress with a mid 80s slider in 2024, mostly utilizing it against righties with success, but he will tend to tug it glove side too frequently. The development of his changeup and effectiveness of it right on right has cut into the usage further and much like his curveball, Tong has really struggled to land it consistently.

Outlook

Yet another fastball uptick paired with what now could be a double plus changeup has elevated Tong significantly. When he’s on, there’s few arms in the minor leagues more effective and overpowering. He will need to find more consistency with his spin and overall command to reach his potential as a starter, still fighting to stay above an overall strike rate of 60%. He has middle-rotation upside, but there’s still some reliever risk with the right-hander.

 

11-30-2025

MLB Prospects to Watch as Potential Centerpieces in Winter Meetings Trades

RHP Jonah Tong, New York Mets

B/R Prospect Rank: No. 3 NYM, No. 34 MLB

Stats (AA/AAA): 22 GS, 1.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 47 BB, 179 K, 113.2 IP

Scouting Report: Despite making his MLB debut on Aug. 29 and spending the rest of the season in the majors, Tong still led all minor league pitchers with 179 strikeouts.

He has an elite fastball, plus changeup and a high-spin curve, all delivered from an over-the-top arm slot that is reminiscent of Tim Lincecum.

Tong had a 7.71 ERA in 18.2 innings in the majors, but he flashed upside with 22 strikeouts and a more palatable 4.31 FIP.

Why He Could Be Traded: The Mets have three exciting young arms in Tong, Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, but it's unlikely they will trust all three to hold down rotation spots in 2026.

With the front office clear in win-now mode, that could mean flipping one of those arms to address a need elsewhere, like center field.

 

12-6-2025

Angry Mike/MM

Mets phenom Jonah Tong’s delivery does resemble former #SFGiants Tim Lincecum’s delivery, but there are notable differences that will help Tong avoid the same medical issues that ultimately shortened Lincecum’s career:

Tong is bigger and a better athlete than Lincecum, standing 6’1 | 180+ lbs, compared to to Lincecum: 5’11 | 170 lbs.

Scouts noted Tong’s muscular lower half, enables natural power generation, without max effort, enhancing durability, reducing wear & tear, and allows for repeatable mechanics.

This is why Tong is able to deliver his 95-99 MPH fastball with relative ease and low effort.

A stark contrast to Lincecum’s max effort, explosive and whippy pitching motion that relied on an intense full-bodied twist & torque to generate peak velocity, which in turn increased strain on his hips, shoulders, and elbows.

Tong’s mechanics also has smoother sequencing, with a grounded foot rotation for better alignment, reducing effort and torque, lowering injury risk from overuse or misalignment.

Efficient sequencing allows Tong to ascertain elite extension, almost 7 feet, a repeatable load, leg lift, and torso tilt, that’s more sustainable & repeatable than Lincecum’s mechanics.

Tong’s mechanics reduce valgus stress (force applied to a joint, that pushes it inward) and external rotation risks, which were directly tied to Lincecum’s career-ending injuries.

Pitching carries an inherent risk that is unavoidable, but to declare Tong’s mechanics as a red flag simply because it resembles a previous pitcher’s mechanics, simply isn’t true.

That’s why trading a premier talent like Tong based on inaccurate research would be a colossal mistake.

 

1-17-2026

RVH/MM

Jonah Tong — The Breakout

Arrival: Early September

Role: Strikeout weapon, late-season jolt

Tong’s rise was the most dramatic.

2025 Minor League Dominance

MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year

ERA: ~1.43 across 113+ innings

K Rate: At times exceeding 15 K/9

Fastball: ~95 mph with elite vertical break

Secondary: 12–6 curveball, improving changeup

Tong forced the issue. He wasn’t next on the depth chart. He was simply too good to ignore.

Tom Brennan - IS ZACH THORNTON FRANK VIOLA II?

 

ZACH THORNTON AS A KILLER CYCLONE IN 2025

IS ZACH THORNTON FRANK VIOLA II?

On Sunday, Zach Thornton threw 60 pitches over 3 2/3, fanned just one, but allowed just one run, in the first inning, with a helping hand in that he dropped a ball on the mound that got called a balk that moved the eventually scoring runner into scoring position. 

He sure looked sharp to me. I was scouting him from my easy chair in the living room.

He doesn’t throw quite as hard as some of the other fireballing prospects, perhaps, but I think he throws harder than Frankie V, and he’s got good control and a fine mix of pitches. 

So why not Frank Viola II?

Or maybe Jerry Koosman is your preferred comp?

Let me know in your responses.

In his 2 outings this spring, 6.2 IP, 6 hits, one run, one walk, 4 Ks.

How nice is that?

Let’s skip the niceties…

When do you think he will be ready for call up to the Big Show?

Paul Articulates – Spring Training in perspective

Spring training is the first baseball that most people have seen since the fall (unless you live in the Dominican or Venezuela).  So it is natural that we as fans become very focused on every player and every stat for these first few weeks of the baseball year.  It is also very natural that we begin to judge those players on their ability to make the club win.

I would never try to temper your enthusiasm, but in this post, I would like to put some perspective on what we are seeing this spring.

It is not about the numbers.

First of all, numbers mean nothing right now.  Baseball stats need large numbers to be significantly significant.  There are many variables that affect statistics so a couple of good (or bad) weeks in the numbers does not characterize a player for the season.  That doesn’t mean the initial stats can’t be looked at, but they have to be understood in context.  If a batter is hitting the cover off the ball and has a handful of “at-em’s”, it could skew their numbers by 100 points.  What is important is the context and that is exactly what the coaching staff is looking at.  Are they taking a good approach at the plate; are they adjusting to the pitches they are seeing; are they showing solid swing mechanics?  

Are Carson Benge’s .367 average and .836 OPS meaningful?  Of course.  He is passing the eye test as well as putting up good numbers.  He is hitting in the clutch and he is tracking line drives and he can throw the ball like a seed.  Carson Benge is winning a spot with his play and his athleticism.  The numbers are a bonus.

Give it time.

The second item of perspective is that spring training is a time to work on skills.  That may be a new pitch, a new position, or learning to hit the ball to a certain field.  When you are working on something new, expect to fail often as the kinks are worked out.  The coaching staff knows what people are working on and they are evaluating how that works.  This leads to a higher tolerance for error.  As a fan, you may be upset that a player is not getting the results expected from the back of their baseball card.  But the coaches are looking for that additional skill that will eventually make that card better – just not yet.  This is particularly true for pitchers.  If a pitcher is developing a new pitch, it is likely that until it is refined, there will be more walks, more hits, even more runs given up.  Only the pitcher, catcher, and pitching coach really know how that development is going and whether it will carry into the season.  Those interim results will not be used to judge value to the team if all the other skills are still intact.

See the business side.

The third piece of perspective, and probably the most difficult to accept, is that the Mets are trying out quite a few prospects at the same time as quite a few veterans that were brought in on one-year deals.  The “business” side of baseball comes into play here, so if a prospect outplays a veteran, they may still not win the job.  A prospect with options can spend a little more time being seasoned in the minors while a veteran with no options either has to make the roster or face a DFA.  Example: AJ Ewing has looked fantastic and showed that he belongs.  But Mike Tauchman also looked like a solid contributor that should be on the team.  Given the number of outfielders vying for a slot, it may be easy to say Ewing starts the year in Syracuse even though he may be a bigger part of the long-term picture.

I am very excited by what I have seen so far in spring training.  Some of the young guys we have been writing about are really showing well, some of the bets that David Stearns placed on veteran free agents are looking promising, and many of the players we are depending on to perform at a high level are showing signs of just that.  With a long season in front of us, there will be slumps, streaks, and surprises.  With a little luck and a lot of hard work, we may be celebrating a great season.  It is just too early to lock that in.

Mets Spring Training: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

As we enter one of the final Spring Training weeks there has been enough time on the Florida (and foreign) soil to start to draw some observational conclusions about how the future 2026 Mets team is performing.  In our best Clint Eastwood, Lee Van Cleef and Eli Wallach moments, let’s have a look at the Good the Bad and the Ugly of what we’ve seen thus far. 

The Good

Wow, where to start.  Carson Benge is as good a place as any.  He is hitting .367, fielding competently and not looking overmatched by the pitching he’s facing in preseason.  These results different dramatically from the 103 plate appearances he had delivering a .178 average in Syracuse. 

A somewhat surprising positive result has come from would be Francisco Lindor substitute Ronny Mauricio.  He has only been up three times less than Benge and thus far has tallied a .296 average which suggests he is fully ready to return to the formidable prospect level he had built during his minor league career.

After a hitless start to his Spring, Brett Baty has been on fire and through his 18 ABs has delivered to the tune of .389.  He’s played all over the diamond, including first base, DH and RF while contributing solidly with his bat so well that he’s making the case to be the full time DH should Benge win the RF job.

A.J. Ewing is a player whose numbers in the minors have been highly impressive yet at the same time he has been somewhat written off as a one trick pony with sprinting being that highly formidable skill.  In 2025 he was up nearly 500 times and finished with a .315 average accompanied by 70 stolen bases.  He hit the ground running in Port St. Lucie and thus far has delivered to the tune of a .381 batting average and already 4 SBs.

Not getting as much opportunity as fellow spare outfielder Mike Tauchman is former hot prospect MJ Melendez hitting a robust .364.  He’s had fits and starts throughout his career so people are taking these numbers with a rock sized grain of salt, but it’s still good to see.

Then there is newly minted first baseman, Jorge Polanco.  He got off to something of a delayed start as he was taking additional fielding reps to grow accustomed to a new position on the field but thus far he’s swinging the bat even better than David Stearns could have expected with a Spring average of .357.

Then there is the .375 batting average owned by catcher Francisco Alvarez.  Many are mourning his lack of power but he answered that with a tape measure shot last week.  Others are more impressed with the average which suggests he’s not blindly swinging for the fences in every AB.

On the pitching side, Freddy Peralta, Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes have all had notable outings this Spring.  In the bullpen it took a few outings but Devin Williams is looking more like the Milwaukee than the Bronx version.

The Bad

Everyone is well aware of the less than impressive start Nolan McLean made after his vertigo-like illness backed up his preparation a bit.  He was virtually unhittable last September.  This year he’s looked human though how much of it was weakness after the illness is not yet known.

How you can call someone with a 2.25 ERA bad depends on expectations and roster status.  In this case we’re looking at future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbel whose first two appearances were not dominant.  He’s bounced back fairly well but he’s not the strikeout machine at rocket velocity he once was in his prime.  He is not on the roster but with lefty AJ Minter likely to start the season on the IL it is still possibly for righty Kimbrel to get an extended look in early April

The Ugly

Here you can start with any of the three red letter (as in low report card grade) players, but each are not making things easy for the front office.  Mark Vientos is back from his stint as part of the Nicaragua WBC team and he’s been so bad combined both here and there that he needs to rally to raise his batting average to .100.  That is not a typo.  

Second baseman Marcus Semien is going to be a joy to watch in the field and even more so when paired with All Star Francisco Lindor.  Unfortunately his hitting has been flat out awful all Spring.  For veterans there is less of a long term worry than there is for unestablished players, but given a few consecutive down years and the high price paid in the form of Brandon Nimmo he’s going to have quite a few early detractors. 

Then there is the suddenly soft tossing lefty starting pitcher, Sean Manaea.  Ever since his impressive debut for the Mets in 2024 he has not been the same.  Injuries limited him to a dozen 2025 starts and the results were beyond ugly.  The hope going into this season was that he would have adjusted and arrived fully healthy.  What no one expected was the significant drop in velocity.  Right now he’s pitching even worse than he did in 2025 and is quickly pitching himself out of the odd six-man rotation.

MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #2 - CF/2B - A.J. Ewing

 

The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

2.     AJ Ewing

Turns 22 in August    5-11    160    CF/2B/LF    LHH

2025 – A/A+/AA:    564-PA, 105-K, 68-BB, 70-SB, 315/.401/.429/.830

           AA:             132-PA, 29-K, 7-BB, 12-SB, .339/.371/.430/.801

Overall Minors:     .283 AVG, 13 HR, 107 RBI, 84 SB in 221 games.

GROK -

A.J. Ewing, whose full name is Andrew Joseph Ewing, is a highly regarded outfield prospect in the New York Mets organization.

He's already making waves in the minors with his speed, contact hitting, and improving power.

High School -      Ewing graduated from Springboro High School in Springboro, Ohio, where he excelled as a shortstop. He was committed to play college baseball at the University of Alabama but opted to turn pro instead.

Draft Selection:   The Mets selected him in the fourth round (134th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft as a compensatory pick for losing ace Jacob deGrom to free agency. He signed for an above-slot bonus of $675,000 and transitioned from shortstop to second base/outfield due to his athleticism and speed.

Strengths:          Known for his "twitchy" athleticism, elite speed (he has 84 stolen bases in 221 minor league games), and plate discipline—he often walks more than he strikes out. Scouts praise his contact skills and gap power, with potential for more home runs as he adds strength this offseason. He's working on building muscle to boost his exit velocity and handle advanced pitching.

Minor League Career –

Ewing has progressed quickly through the Mets' farm system, starting in the Rookie-level Florida Complex League (FCL) and advancing steadily. His 2024 season was solid but marked by adjustment to pro ball; 2025 was a breakout year, where he dominated at Low-A and earned a promotion to Double-A.

ETA to MLB:        Projected for 2028, though his rapid rise could accelerate that. He's seen as a potential everyday second baseman or versatile outfielder with 20-20 (HR-SB) upside if his power develops.

Ewing's quote to the Dayton Daily News in October 2025:

"My goal never was to be a college baseball player... I want to get to the bigs."

 

11-2-2025

Who are the next young studs for the Mets?

https://www.justmets.net/p/who-are-the-next-young-studs-pt-1  

OF/2B A.J. Ewing (No. 7 prospect, Double-A BNG)

2025 MiLB Totals: 124 G, 564 PA, .315/.401/.429, 153 H, 3 HR, 26 2B, 10 3B, 87 R, 55 RBI, 70 SB, 18.6%-12.1% K-BB%, .113 ISO, .392 BABIP, .390 wOBA, 147 wRC+

Latest Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 / Power: 45 / Run: 60 / Arm: 50 / Field: 55 / Overall: 50

MLB Comp: Jacob Wilson (2024 Grades: 70 / 45 / 50 / 55 / 50 / Overall: 55)

Carson Benge wasn’t the only Mets prospect to fly through three minor league levels this season. Ewing just happened to post an OPS+ over 130 everywhere he went.

A.J. Ewing has been receiving praise since the moment he suited up in the orange and blue. A compensatory fourth-round draft pick in 2023 (received, funnily enough, as a result of the departure of Jacob deGrom), the course of Ewing’s development last season closely followed that of Reimer’s, with maybe even steeper odds attached at his journey’s outset.

When initially drafted, Ewing graded out far lower than his current projections. Seen as a ‘project’ with a ‘light’ arm that was destined for utility duties, Ewing’s development in his second year of action has significantly raised his initial ceiling.

Yet despite all the toolsy upside that Ewing’s already put on display, he has one particular skill (aside from his ability to make near-constant contact) that has established itself as a cornerstone to his overall game: base stealing.

Though slightly undersized, Ewing has already proven a threat on both sides of the ball, and his defensive development is showcasing a comfort in center field that scouts think will complement the likes of Carson Benge manning a full-time corner position. (That means Nimmo and/or Soto are likely destined for perma-DH duties eventually, but I think that’s a reality we all foresaw anyway.

Whether he pops in for a few games in September 2026 or breaks camp in April 2027, I don’t doubt Ewing will also be in Queens sooner than later.

 

11-7-2025  -  Just Baseball

4. AJ Ewing – CF/2B – (Double-A)

Height/Weight: 5’11″, 180 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 4th Round-C (134), 2023 (NYM) | ETA: 2027

A speedster with advanced abilities at the plate, Ewing broke out in a big way in 2025, looking like a high probability big leaguer with some versatility.

Hitting

A simple operation, Ewing starts with his feet a little more than shoulder-width apart and the bat rested just above his shoulder. He utilizes a moderate gather as he pulls his hands back slightly. His repeatable operation helps him be on time consistently, making posting above average contact rates with good plate discipline.

Ewing has a knack for finding the barrel, producing plenty of line drives and higher exit velocities than what may be expected from a hitter of his archetype, averaging 89 MPH in 2025 with a max of 112 MPH.

His swing path can flatten out at times, with an average launch angle on hard hit baseballs of just seven degrees, but his ability to consistently spray line drives to all fields helps hedge some of that concern. Ewing is comfortable in left-on-left matchups, actually producing slightly better contact rates against same-handed competition.

If Ewing can generate a bit more loft to the pull side, the exit velocities are there to produce more homers, but given his speed, production and ability to find the outfield gaps, it may be more of an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” kind of thing.

As he currently stands, Ewing should still be able to mix in a hand full of homers with the ability to compile plenty of doubles and triples (he had 11 of the latter in 2025). His above average plate discipline and ability to hit lefties only helps solidify what is a strong floor for a hitter.

Defense/Speed

An elite runner, the Mets have continued to up Ewing’s reps in centerfield where his reads are improving, but his closing speed already compensates enough to get by.

While his routes can be indirect at times, Ewing’s ability to unlock another gear and athleticism to finish plays has him looking like a capable centerfielder, but with more refinement, he can grow into an above average defender out there. Ewing looks comfortable at second base, where he could also provide at least average defense.

One of five minor leaguers to steal at least 70 bags in 2025, Ewing was the second most efficient of that group and should be an elite base stealer at the highest level.

Outlook

Between the advanced offensive skill set, speed and defensive versatility, Ewing has a high floor as a player who should at least land in a utility role if the bat stalls. That said, his propensity for hitting line drives and solid exit velocities point towards what could be an everyday center fielder who can jump onto the dirt when needed. With a little bit more progress defensively up the middle, Ewing should be an above average regular who could be an intriguing table-setter at the top of the order.

 

11-11-2025

Tom Brennan/MM

8. OF A.J. Ewing

The 5’11” Ewing was, to me, the Mets minor league hitter of the year. 

He is going to be a 21-year-old in 2026, and is a high-on-base, base-swiping super machine. In 2025, between St Lucie, Brooklyn, and Binghamton, he was .315/.401/.426. Swoosh!

He is a no-doubt top 5 player a year from now.  His lone fault to date is low power, with just 3 blasts in 2025, but he had 36 other extra base hits, which is impressive, and SEVENTY STEALS in just 124 games, which is a 90+ steals pace over 162 games.  Just 105 Ks in 564 PAs.

He was an over slot 134th pick in 2024. 

I ask…why can’t he be a star infielder/OF in the majors?

SWOOSH!

 

11-30-2025

Running From The OPS       @OPS_BASEBALL

Mets #7 prospect, A.J. Ewing, had himself an excellent 2025. The 21-year-old showed a balanced batted-ball profile, with a superb ability to go the other way. He had a SwStr% of under 9%, showed off his 70-grade speed with 70 SB, and still has some untapped raw power to find!

 

12-3-2025

Ben Yoel          @Ben_Yoel

A.J. Ewing

Mets biggest prospect rise in 2025. He could be the CF of the future.

He stole 70 bases this year.

 

12-4-2025

Angry Mike/MM

Despite a record number of Mets prospects having breakout seasons in 2025, nobody created more buzz than A.J. Ewing to start the season, putting up video-game numbers right out of the gate. Ewing returned to St. Lucie to begin 2025, but quickly forced a promotion to Brooklyn, after posting an absurd .400 batting average and .506 OBP thru his first 18 games. High-A pitching didn’t slow Ewing down either, posting a .368 batting average & .440 OBP in his first month. 

If the hits and OBP don’t impress you, Ewing also recorded a ridiculous 50 stolen bases (56 attempts) thru his first 68 games of the 2025 season. Ewing’s approach highlighted getting on-base, slashing line drives all over the field. 

The only reason he didn’t rocket up Top 100 Rankings was because he simply didn’t produce the homers those lists are obsessed over, but his average exit velocity of 89 mph and maximum exit velocity of 112 mph, suggest there is plenty of untapped power potential that can be unlocked in the future.

I’ve been tracking Ewing’s box scores diligently ever since he was drafted, he remains one of my favorite Mets prospects, and I’m looking forward to seeing him produce a repeat monster performance for the 2026 season.

 

12-29-2025

Tom Brennan/MM

A.J. EWING -> Full-Season MILB STATS:

Year 1 -> Low-A |  HI-A -> 20 years old -> 29% K-Rate | 376 PA

| .233 BA | .361 OBP | .751 OPS | 10 HR | 13 2B | 3 3B | 13 SB | 49 RBI |

| 59 Runs | 63 BB |

 

Year 2 -> Low-A | HI-A | AA -> 21 years old -> 19% K-Rate | 553 PA

| .261 BA | .363 OBP | .828 OPS | 17 HR | 34 2B | 7 3B | 34 SB | 52 RBI |

| 91 Runs | 76 BB |

 

Tom Brennan - My Top 30 Mets Prospects vs. Joe DeMayo Top 30; And MORE

IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING.OUR READERS ARE ALL IN MY TOP 30!

Good morning, readers. 

I impatiently did my top 30 list way back in October, knowing full well that there would be some changes in the off-season with trades and the like. 

And, sure enough, Jett and Sproat (my #4 and #5 in October) were dealt.

On March 3, Joe DeMayo Put out his top 30 list with his logic for each one. 

Anyway, you can look up his article on SNY. And his picks are on the Mets website for all to see.

I will re-list my Top 30 (adjusted for trades and the like) for you to compare to Joe’s mighty fine list:

JOE DEMAYO NEW TOP 30 LIST:

1. RHP Nolan McLean

2. OF Carson Benge

3. OF A.J. Ewing

4. RHP Jonah Tong

5.3B/1B Jacob Reimer

6. 1B/OF Ryan Clifford

7. SS Elian Peña

8. RHP Jack Wenninger

9. LHP Jonathan Santucci

10. 2B Mitch Voit

11. OF Nick Morabito

12. RHP Will Watson

13. LHP Zach Thornton

14. C/1B/OF Chris Suero

15. SS Wandy Asigen

16. RHP Ryan Lambert

17. OF Eli Serrano III

18. RHP Dylan Ross

19. OF/1B Randy Guzman

20. SS Antonio Jimenez

21. RHP R.J. Gordon

22. RHP Jonathan Pintaro

23. C Yovanny Rodriguez

24. RHP Peter Kussow

25. INF Boston Baro

26. RHP Camden Lohman

27. C Daiverson Gutierrez

28. RHP Cam Tilly

29. RHP Nathan Hall

30. INF Trey Snyder

TOM BRENNAN 

ADJUSTED OCT. 2025 TOP 30 LIST (With my abridged comments):

 1. RHP Nolan McLean

McLean, had he not tried to be a two-way player in the first half of 2024, which likely slightly slowed his pitching development, would have been in the majors even earlier than he arrived at his accelerated pace. Outstanding Mets starter after his MLB debut, and a heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year in 2026 - and in my opinion a real future Cy Young candidate.  Awesome stuff that the entire league was raving about.  

Very mature, and hitters hated facing him.  One ranking site had him as the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. Who am I to argue? I only wish that in these no-DH times, he could still hit, too.  Huge power, averaging a HR every 20 minor league PAs.

2. RHP Jonah Tong

Tong is my number 2. He is simply terrific.  

Absolutely incredible pitching stats in the minors, with all (but two AAA games) in AA.  The youthful righty showed some good signs amidst a few rough outings after being rushed to the majors in September in Mets’ hopes that he could plug a hole in the hull of the Mets sinking pitching ship.  But the real positive is that he actually gained high pressure MLB experienced in his 18.2 inning sometimes-rocky MLB debut, in which he fanned 22.  

A 2026 NL Rookie of the Year candidate? I sure think so. Nolan and Tong. Seaver and Koosman.  Many forget that Jerry Koosman didn’t debut in 1968 with his 19-12, 2.08 best Mets pitcher rookie year ever, besides Doc Gooden circa 1984 dazzler.   Koosman actually debuted briefly in 1967, going an ugly 0-2, 6.04.  My guess is it was a wonderful learning experience for Jerry in 1967 that led to his 1968 season being so fantastic.  I see the same thing happening with Tong in 2026.

3. OF Carson Benge

Benge, the Mets’ 2024 first rounder, was incredible in High A and AA in his first full season.  He struggled in his late call up in AAA, but finished 8 for 25.  He feels to me like a May/June 2026 call up to the big leagues.  

Of course, if the Mets go for a short rebuild in 2026 instead, Benge could be a Mets opening day outfielder. Hits very well, good power, a solidly muted strikeout rate, good speed, and a truly great arm.  What’s not to like?  Future MLB All Star?  I think so.

4.  1B Ryan Clifford

The 22 year old lefty power hitting Clifford has accelerated, starting slowly in cold, pitchers park Binghamton in early 2025, hitting just .190 on May 4, with just 3 HRs and 9 RBIs, but heating up thereafter and getting promoted to AAA. He hit just .237, but had an .356 OBP due to an high level of walks (85) that compensated for his 148 Ks.

He ended up with impressive numbers: 29 HRs and 93 RBIs in 139 games. A strong 26 HRs and 84 RBIs over his last 115 games. Project THAT over 162 games. Go ahead, reader, I dare ya.  That’s roughly about 40 / 112. Part of those high RBIs, to be sure, was due to a plethora of fast base runners to for Ryan to drive in, named Jett, Morabito, D’Andre, and (briefly) Ewing.

Clifford is slow afoot, and will be a future DH/1B type, but can play in the OF.  My comp for Clifford is Lucas Duda, who like Clifford hit righties a lot better than lefties, but to Clifford, I would say:

”OK, you’ve proved you can walk a lot, now ATTACK!”  Be aggressive.  Less walks, higher average, more HRs. Essentially: From here on out, please be the next Nick Kurtz.  Attack.  I bring up his need to ATTACK, because others are already inferring it, but not saying it directly.  Who are those “others”?  The people who put together Baseball Top 100 lists, who do not include Clifford. ATTACK!

5.  3B Jacob Reimer

By this time next season, we will know much better just how good the 21 year old former 119th overall pick is.  His bad 2024 hammy injury essentially destroyed that year of development. Strong bounce-back for Jacob in 2025, who struggled but then adjusted well to AA pitching.

Some say the 6’0”, 205 Reimer is a tad slow.  If so, how did he steal 15 of 18 in just 122 games in 2025?  He raked 32 doubles, 2 triples, and 17 HRs, along with 77 RBIs, in those 122 games, and hit .277 despite his fairly prolonged mid-season slump. Project those power numbers over 162 games and you end up with 42 doubles, 23 HRs, and 102 RBIs.  20 steals, too. I’ll take it.  

Ceiling? Close to David Wright, perhaps? Floor? Close to Zach Lutz. My prognosis is somewhere in the middle between the two, a good, solid major leaguer. MLB has him as their #2 overall third baseman.

He has played first base well, and been error-prone at 3B. I expect real glove progress in 2026, and for him to force his way somewhere into the Mets line up in 2027.

6.  OF A.J. Ewing

The 5’11” Ewing was, to me, the Mets minor league hitter of the year.  He is going to be a 21-year-old in 2026, and is a high-on-base, base-swiping super machine. In 2025, between St Lucie, Brooklyn, and Binghamton, he was .315/.401/.426. Swoosh!  He is a no-doubt top 5 player a year from now.  His lone fault to date is low power, with just 3 blasts in 2025, but he had 36 other extra base hits, which is impressive, and SEVENTY STEALS in just 124 games, which is a 90+ steals pace over 162 games.  Just 105 Ks in 564 PAs.

He was an over slot 134th pick in 2024.  I ask…why can’t he be a star infielder/OF in the majors?

7.  SS Elian Peña

Peña hit mostly great, after his 3 for 45 DSL head scratcher start, that is.  I can give you 5 million reason$ why he could be great in 2-3 years, having signed the Mets’ biggest international signing bonus ever. 

After his glacial start, he ended up at .292/.421/.528, boosted his slash line immeasurably in a 3 HR, 8 RBI game against what appeared were very bad pitchers that day.  Nonetheless, his 9 season HRs, in that lowly league where HRs are usually low, was truly impressive. But he did all that at age 17.  My guess is, having just turned 18 in October, he will beheading to the FCL, stateside, in 2026.

He made 15 errors in 52 games in the field in 2025.  I say that is GOOD for a 17 year old, playing mostly SS. The 5’10” righty stole 21 of 25.  That’s good, too.  Expecting VERY GOOD things for Elian when he comes stateside in 2026. Elian’s Mets debut by 2029, when it may well be time to shift Francisco Lindor, who in 2029 will be 35 years old, to 2nd or 3rd base.

8. LHP Jonathan Santucci

I love “Santucci the Superb”, the 46th overall pick in 2024.  Doubts, if any, that others have about Santucci, I do not have.  Rising like a rocket. Top 5 in late 2026 is my projection. Mets starter in 2027.

The 6’2” Santucci struggled badly in early 2025 pro debut play, allowing 19 earned runs and 7 HRs and 33 hits in his first 6 outings and 21 innings of 2025.  People were wondering what the refund policy was.

He then, however, flipped the Awesome switch and ended up 9-4, allowing just 2 HRs over his last 100 innings (what!!), and just 21 earned runs in that span, while fanning 138 in 118 innings. Did great in AA, concluding with 4.2 innings of 1 run ball in the AA Championship playoffs.   A great lefty starting pitcher prospect, and a great draft pick.  Rated with a 55 grade fastball and 60 grade slider.

My guess is he will be a David Peterson or Sean Manaea rotation replacement by 2027.  Almost better than either of them right now? One could debate that.

9.  RHP Jack Wenninger

Wenninger has been terrific. Deservedly deserves # 9. The 6’4” righty, drafted in the 6th round in 2023, went 12-6, in AA Binghamton, with a  2.92 ERA and 147 Ks in 136 innings, and a 1.15 WHIP.  And Jack was a post-season KILLER, going 2-0, 1.64 ERA in 11 innings, allowing just 4 hits and punching out TWENTY. 

He has a terrific 311 pro Ks in 264 innings in 2024 and 2025.  He sometimes hits 96, but is not a flame thrower. However, he has an awesome change up and good slider.  AAA awaits, and my wish? May he crush it in 2026. Jack could make his Mets debut some time during 2026.

10.  OF Nick Morabito

Morabito started 2025 frigidly in 2025 in the Frigidaire known as Binghamton in spring time, but then scorched for a few months, before heating back up.  He has not hit many HRs, but surely knows that is a competitive negative and therefore WILL add in-game power, as he has the strength to do so. Steals bushels-full of bases.

In the Arizona Fall league, through Thursday November 6, he was simply smoking at .377/.472/.492, with 15 runs in 15 games along with 14 thefts.  WOOSH!! The righty hit .273 in AA, and hit just .239 in Bingo, while hitting .305 on the friendlier road. .291 career in 1,122 at bats for the 5’10” righty smacked, with a terrific 130 career steals. He hit just .136 in the post season.

He is my # 10, even though he got passed over for a promotion when Jett, Benge, Clifford, and Parada were jumped up to Syracuse. So, he stayed in Binghamton, where they won a championship instead. Future 4th outfielder for Mets, if not dealt away. If you want to take the 5th, Nick will raise his right hand.  ATHLETE!

11. RHP Will Watson

Very, very promising righty. I promise.  A 22 year old 6’1” righty, with a 60 rated FB, he threw 3 brief innings of toe-dipping in 2024, then went just 3-9 in 2025, but with a dazzling 2.60 ERA and 142 Ks in 121 IP.  W/L records in the minors don’t mean a lot, as starters often get pulled after 4 innings or in the 5th, denying them the chance to pick up a W.

In the second half of 2025, Watson had a 2.10 ERA. Pitching at 3 levels, 18 of his 2025 innings were in his 3rd destination in Binghamton.  Could very well be a 2027 Mets starter. A “Sherlock” for a rotation spot, some might say, eh, Watson?

12.  2B Mitch Voit

Voit was the Mets first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and I give deference to that in ranking him over Chris Suero, even with Voit’s early slow start in St. Lucie.  He started his pro career in St Lucie going just 13-70, but ignited in September in going 7 for 15 with 4 walks, to boost him to .235.

He incredibly stole 20 bases in 22 games, but had just 3 XBHs in his debut mini-season. He is rated 55 for hit, and 50 for power.  Listed as a 2B, but with the speed and arm to play anywhere. Voit will play 2026 as a 21 year old, and is 60 rated for speed and arm.  The 6’0, 200 righty hitting speedster should be seeing a lot of time in Brooklyn next year.   ATHLETE!

13.  C/1B/OF Chris Suero

Bronx-born Suero has almost the whole package.  He has speed, power, clutch hitting, and versatility including catching, but capable in the outfield and first base, too. Can he hit high caliber pitching? Probably eventually well enough. 

But his Ks are high, and lefties so far have mystified him.  In 2025, between High A and AA, he hit .233 with 16 HRs and 68 RBIs in 475 PAs AND stole 35 bases. But he fanned 139 times, and that has to come way down. Of course, he was just 21 this season, and clearly on the learning curve. 

He walked at a very high rate (70 times), giving him a .379 OBP, and I think that my prescription of greater aggression on strike one may lower the K rate somewhat, but will help drive down the Ks. Get those Ks down, and he is Top 5.  At 5’11”, 205, he seems to be built much like a former Met:  Yoenis Cespedes.  

SUERO. Such a high ceiling, if those Ks can only COME DOWN. ATHLETE! In the Arizona Fall League, Suero, through Thursday November 6, was hitting a potent .286/.359/.571, and was 2nd in AFL HRs with 5 bombs in 14 games, with 14 RBIs and 7 for 7 in steals.  Dynamite!

14.  RHP Dylan Ross

Ross  is a high power reliever. K Machine. In his first 3 pro years, in 2022-2024, the hulking fireballing righty threw one inning, total, and fanned the side. In 2025, he made up for lost time, finishing up in AAA.  54 innings, 80 Ks, 2.17 ERA.  7 of 9 in saves, 9 holds.  Clocked at over 100 MPH. Control needs tightening, but it is hard to envision him not being a major bullpen piece in 2026.

15.  RHP Ryan Lambert

Lambert, another fireballing reliever with toughness, will be a real factor in the Mets pen in 2026. In his first full season, he had 81 Ks in 50 innings, and a 1.62 ERA between High A and AA. 7 of 9 in saves, and 12 holds.  Typically sits in the high 90s. Fearless. Hungry. 23 years old and 6’3” 225.  

He has to start out in AAA, and most likely will be added to the Mets pen during 2026.  It seems unlikely he will make the Mets opening day roster with no AAA innings to date.  But I’d like to be wrong.

(Thru Friday this spring, in 3 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit, EIGHT Ks. Wow!)

16.  LHP Zach Thornton 

He pitched great as a lefty in AA, until he badly strained his left oblique a la Manaea, and the LEFTY’S season abruptly ended in late June.  His numbers to that point were dazzling: 6-2, 1.98, 78 Ks in 72 IP, and an 0.81 WHIP.  WOW!  I would have him higher, but let’s see how he returns from his injury in 2026 first.  Yes, Gus, he is a quality lefty.  Great control, can hit 95, but more of a Viola type crafty lefty.  One to Watch In 2026.

17.  RHP Saul Garcia 

This Saul guy here was a hard throwing wild man pre-2025.  Would he harness it in 2025?  YES!  Still on the wild side, but improving, righty Saul Garcia was 5-2 in AA and High A, with a 1.70 ERA and a .173 BAA.  He walked 28, but fanned 76 in 48 innings, and 6 of 7 in saves.  The 22 year old 6’0, 180 Garcia from Venezuela has fanned 325 in 236 career innings.  The Mets always need pen arms, and he should debut with the Mets some time in 2026, one would think.

18.  OF Eli Serrano III

The 6’5” Eli (2024, Round: 4, Overall Pick: 111) could ultimately be very good, but 2025 has been a bit of a struggle. More pop than Nick Morabito, but Nick is faster and hits better, so far.  

Eli ended up at .222/.332/.358, and his last game was August 24.  He is a lefty bat in the Brooklyn hellhole for lefty hitters, and so it is no surprise that he hit .189 at home and .255 on the road.  To me, he is perhaps a bit too reminiscent of lefty hitting JT Schwartz, who struggled badly in 2025 and remarkably was also the 111th overall pick in his respective draft year.Eli has a lot to prove in 2025, and I would start him out in hitter-friendlier Binghamton, sink or swim.  

19.  Kevin Parada 

The former first round catcher had completely fallen out of my top 30 last year, due to terrible hitting and high Ks.  Early in 2025, I felt entirely justified in that non-ranking, since in 2025, he was “hitting” just .157 in AA on May 25!   I delisted KP from the Brennan Stock Exchange right then.

I also suggested then that the Mets consider a TWO LEVEL DEMOTION, to allow Kevin to start over with the bat.  Suddenly, though, he proved me wrong…he started to hit in AA.  A lot.  He ended up hitting .254 in 315 AA at bats, with 50 RBIs, so he hit great in AA for his last 3 months there.  He was then promoted to AAA, and while hitting just .196 in 56 at bats, his AAA K rate (which was stubbornly too high in 2024) was a much improved K per every 5 PAs. So I re-listed him on my Brennan Prospect Exchange and immediately rated him a “BUY”.

He seems to be positioned to overtake Hayden Senger as the # 3 catcher behind Alvarez and Torrens.  Senger’s glove is better, but Parada’s bat is now finally better. Hopefully, in 2026, his bat will be much better.

A remarkable mid-season hitting turn-around story.  As such, I deservedly let him OUT of my doghouse, and list him at # 19. Could he possibly ascend all the way back up into the Mets’ top 10 in 2026?  It is not impossible. Keep improving the hitting.

20.  Antonio Jimenez

A high Mets pick in 2025, the 102nd overall dude in the 2025 MLB draft is a 21 year old 6’1, 200 (what else?) shortstop.  He hit .263 in 26 games in St Lucie, with a low K (15 in 110 PAs) rate.  Very nice.  Just one double in those 110 PAs, but he had a .575 slug % in college in 2025, so the pop is there, and will show up. He is listed with “50” power. 

I like that he pursued contact over power in his pro debut.  He added 8 steals, and 19 of 25 in steals between college and the pros this year in 81 games.  “Just” 5 errors in 22 games at SS/3B, a good sign.  My guess is he will move fast into High A. Interestingly, in grading the Mets’ 2025 draft players against one another, a reader noted that Baseball America ranked Jimenez as best in power and best in defense.

21.   Yovanny Rodriguez

“Yo Rod” at age 18 hit better than Elian Pena in the DSL: .331/.446/.493.  The catcher, like Elian, also got a huge bonus.  Not just quite as huge. I want to see him crush stateside ball in 2026 as a 19 year old. Yo, Yo.

22.  INF Boston Baro

Boston the player  (listed at 6’1”, 170) was an 8th round over-slotter in 2023.  He could be very good, but 2025 was a bit of an inclining struggle. Playing SS, 2B, and 3B, the speedster stole 28 of 30, but hit just .224, after hitting .278 the prior year.   He bats lefty and Brooklyn is a lefty hitter’s nightmare, as he no doubt learned the hard way.  He missed the Brooklyn playoffs, as his season ended with an injury in late August, a bummer since in his final 2025 game, he went 3 for 5.

I see him getting assigned to Binghamton and its somewhat friendlier environs. He played most of 2025 at age 20.  Time to add some Boston beef and pop for 2026.

Why? Because, man oh man, there is so much friggin’ infield competition in this organization right now, and so few ultimate slots in Queens.  Time for him, frankly, to prove he is not the next Alex Ramirez, who also hit around .280 before he slipped to .220.  I think Boston, the player, will have a solid 2026. Fingers crossed.

23.  INF Marco Vargas

Joe DeMayo wrote this a while back: “Vargas was the headlining return of the David Robertson trade back in 2023. At one time he was a top 10 prospect in the system, but missed most of last year with a wrist issue and his 2025 has been just solid. He has above average bat-to-ball and pitch recognition skills but really does not impact the baseball at all. He is a solid athlete who has played around the infield and has stolen 33 bases. He probably projects more as a backup infielder type, if his hit tool carries him through the upper minors.”  So…I agree with that assessment pretty entirely, and a # 23 ranking to me is a proper level for a potential future utility MLB guy.

24.  Yonaton Henriquez

A 20 year old athletic switch hitter, OF Yonatan Henriquez had 35 steals, a .263 average, and a .353 OBP with 8 HRs and 52 RBIs in just 111 games, mostly with St Lucie.  Second half, up-trending, with a sizzling .294/.377./441. He went 7 for 20 with 6 RBIs in the Brooklyn playoffs, too. I’d sure keep an eye on this athletic young fella. I may have him too danged low. I hope so.

25.  OF Randy Guzman

The 6’4” Mets guy whose name is closest to Jerry Koosman?  

“The Gooz” started out the season as a complete unknown (but not like a rolling stone) in the FCL, and ended the regular season with St Lucie. 

How’d he do?  252 at bats, 22 doubles, 2 triples, 10 HRs, 57 RBI’s.  Yes, he killed it. I’d like to see those #s projected over 600 at bats. OK, so I did:  

600 at bats, 52 doubles, 5 triples, 24 HRs, 137 RBIs.  Sweet.  He hit .302/.375/.524 overall in 2025.  

After his promotion to St Lucie, no adjustment period necessary - he demolished it at .333/.381/.604 in 26 games.  DANG!  And just 54 Ks in 283 PAs.  And he doesn’t turn 21 until April. And, as Ernest Dove told us, he is a great clubhouse presence already. 

I cautiously expect him to be a 2026 minors beast. I simply had to get him in my top 30.

26.   RJ Gordon

The 23 year old 13th round righty had some heck of a heckuva year, spanning 2 levels up to AA, going 11-3, 3.36, with 147 Ks in 129 IP.  

Keep that up!   I hesitated a bit in putting him higher, due to his 13th round draft status. Next year, if he is strong again, he will RISE! 

Might he even debut with the Mets in relief in 2026? If so, call him Flash Gordon.

27.  Brendan Girton 

The 10th rounder righty was super in Brooklyn in 2025, and got promoted to Binghamton.  He ended up 3-4, 3.10, ERA, the same exact ERA that the great Carlton Willey put up for the 1963 Mets when he went 9-14 as the ace of their staff during that tough season. Girton’s ERA sadly jumped above 3.00 in his final outing, where he gave up 4 earned runs in 2 IP. Girton ended up with 110 Ks in 87 innings,and a 1.16 WHIP.  He threw 2 gems in Brooklyn that spanned 10 innings, in which he allowed just 1 hit, walked 2 and fanned 15. The Dominator. The Girtonator.

Given the level of bullpen churn in Metsville each year, it would not at all surprise me to see Mr. Girton make his Mets’ debut out of the bullpen in late 2026.  But first, he needs more AA (and then AAA) seasoning.  Still, for me to have guy this talented as low as # 29 says great things about the system.

28.  C Daiverson Gutierrez

Bonus baby Davey Gutierrez, still 19, played all season in St Lucie.  Not the DSL.  Not the FCL.  BUT Low A St Lucie.  Sweet!  

His power output is limited so far, with a Buddy Harrelson-like 14 extra base hits in 395 plate appearances, but he walked 53 times, as compared to just 58 Ks. A fine rate. Result? A solid OBP. His catching defense is of concern - let’s call it a work in progress, with 24 errors and 17 passed balls in 86 games catching and a 17% (late-in-season up trending) caught-stealing rate.  

He should add power, as he is listed at 5’11”, 210.  He has used the HBP as a tool to get on base, too, with 33 career HBPs in 748 PAs.  My motto: Get on base however you can, but avoid injury.

I believe his high catcher errors are in part due to this being an extremely high steal attempt league. So he is a long ways off, but he is 19, with a promising bat.  Probably a 2028 Citi arrival? Late 2027, maybe? 

29.  IF/OF D’Andre Smith

He had a very fine bounce back year in 2025, hitting .282/.345/.417, mostly in AA, with 31 of 34 in steals. As I wrote this on October 29, the Mets’ 2022 fifth rounder was just 5 for 27 in Arizona Fall ball, but was also on base 7 more times via BB/HBP, and added 6 steals in 6 tries. His .353 OBP there was nothing to sneeze at.

I listed him at # 29, frankly, because I wanted to highlight him as first in today’s article, so you would not miss him.  Ridiculous logic on my part, I know.  I sense he gets overlooked a lot.  He shouldn’t. He just looks HUNGRY!  He could make his MLB debut in 2026 if the circumstances fall his way.

30.  OF Edward Lantigua

Lantigua has much competition from some other DSL hitters not named Peña or Yovanny, but I like him at # 30.  He may vault well up into the top 30 in 2026.  Playing in the FCL as an 18 year old, the 6’1”, 175 OF got in 49 games and hit .288/.433/.399.  What, exactly, is not to like? 

Honorable Mention:

 Five more:

31 thru 35:

RHP Nathan Hall, C Ronald Hernandez, INF Trey Snyder, C Julio Zayas, RHP Peter Kussow

So, there ya have it.  

Our lists are quite similar, but I generally hesitate to put the latest draftees, especially pitchers, like a Cam Tilly (5.76 college ERA, no pro innings in 2025) in my Top 30 until they’ve thrown at least a few pro innings.

Hey, and someone please let me know how Jett and Sproat are doing, will ya?  Thanks.

THE LAD FROM LEVITTOWN NY

In the early 1980s, I lived for a while in a small apartment in Levittown on Long Island, at 22 Bucket Ln. 

About 20 years later, Nick Roselli, Mets 11th rounder, was born.  Where?

In Levittown. 

Long Island dudes? They’re clutch, baby.

Roselli as a pro and now at age 22 has hit just .211 in the minors in 106 games, but has 56 RBIs. Not bad.

In spring training 2025 and 2026, he is clutch, too. 

3 for 7, with 2 doubles and 5 RBIs. Love that RBI per at bat ratio.

Keep it up, my Levittown “brother”! I think he will surprise to the upside.

OH, AND IN CASE YA DID NOT NOTICE…

Ex-Met Drew Smith signed with the Nationals. He has logged 3 innings, one base runner, and no runs allowed. Good for Drew.

And on Friday, great pitching from current Mets Kodai, Holmes, Lambert…and from 34 year old Carl Edwards, Jr., who threw 4 hitless innings in a split squad game in which minor leaguer Nick Roselli had a key bases-clearing pinch hit double. 

That one hit gives him a better spring than some guys in my Top 30.