The New York Mets made the unpopular decision in the offseason to let homegrown star Pete Alonso head towards the beltway to join the Baltimore Orioles. David Stearns was hoping to spread out the money saved on Alonso throughout the rest of the roster. The team inked Jorge Polanco to a multi-year contract with the plan to play him at first. The team also had Mark Vientos on the roster, who was not that far removed from a breakout 2024 campaign. As the Mets season has spiraled, the team has gotten solid production at first base lately. It’s not just from the player that anyone expected.
Coming into the week, Jared Young had only played in 22 games. The sample size is incredibly small, but his .291/.375/.509 slash line has been a pleasant surprise to both the fan base and the front office. If Young qualified, his .884 OPS would be second on the team to Juan Soto. Young has been red hot and has provided an offensive spark since he was activated off of the injured list on May 26th. He has a 150 wRC+ on the year. Essentially, Young has been 50% better than the average hitter in his limited playing time.
Although Young’s performance might be more of a flash in the pan, his process has greatly improved at the dish. He still strikes out a quarter of the time, which is not ideal, but that number is still down almost 10% compared to 2024 and would be the lowest of his MLB career. In addition to him striking out less often, he is also drawing more free passes. His 11 percent walk rate is above average to begin with, but it looks even better when taking into account he only walked four percent a season ago.
Young has been very lucky with .351 batting average on balls in play, but that also stems from him squaring everything up. He currently has a hard hit rate of over 52% with a barrel rate of nearly 18%. The hard hit rate has jumped about 13 percentage points compared to 2025. His expected average of .284 is not that far off from his actual average. Plus, his expected slug (.514) is slightly higher than what Young was slugging coming into the week (.509). His walk rate has also been a main contributor as to why Young xWOBA is just a couple of clicks under the .400 mark.
Even if Young’s BABIP is destined to regress, the quality of contact has been so good that Young’s numbers shouldn’t suffer astronomically. The most stark contrast is the fact that Young has gained seven miles per hour on his average exit velocity. It currently stands at 92 MPH, which is not that far off from a hard hit ball by MLB’s definition.
Young has shown tremendous improvement regardless of fastball or offspeed, but it’s still fascinating to look at the breakdowns of where he has taken the biggest strides. Specifically against the four-seamer, Young has cut his whiff rate by 20%. Last year, he was under the Mendoza line when it came to hitting any type of fastball. This year, his average is up over 200 points. It’s ironic that his slugging has gone down from last year, but his more consistent approach has allowed me to produce better overall results against hard stuff. The exact opposite is true when facing offspeed pitches. Young’s average has taken a hit, but is doing more damage.
His slugging is way up, and there is reason to believe he has also been unlucky. Although he only has a .222 average versus offspeed pitches, his expected average sits nearly at .295. Although he posted a very respectable .286 average last on offspeed stuff, his expected average was under .150. Yes, Dusty Baker was famous for saying he only cared about exit hits, Young’s performance on offspeed pitches this season should improve while his performance last year was not sustainable.
This season, Young has pulled the ball in the air 20% of the time. That’s actually not the highest in his career (2023 takes it), but the biggest difference is Young being more on time. Typically when you are pulling the ball, you are more out in front, which allows you to unlock more of that power. If you are going to the opposite field, you are typically late.
Hitters have success both ways, but when lifting the ball, most players want to pull it (unless you’re Aaron Judge or James Wood). This season, Young’s opposite field air rate is under three percent. That is way down from about 29% a season ago.
Fangraphs and Baseball Savant have also graded Young as a slightly above average defender. It can’t be easy given Young has played a few games in the outfield along with spending most of his time at first base. Both websites have him as a plus-one in fielding run value with Fangraphs also having him at plus-one in outs above average, explaining that Young has better than average range.
Jared Young’s current OPS is over 100 points higher than what he has posted in his career. His average is 60 points higher than his career number. It’s too far to say that Young is quickly becoming a .300/.400/.500 player, who has unlocked a few extra gears in his age 30 season. Remember, he had only tallied 64 plate appearances coming into the series against the St. Louis Cardinals.
With that being said, Young is checking off every underlying statistical box that one wants to see in 2026. He is striking out less and walking more. He is pulling his flyballs. Despite a high BABIP, his expected numbers point towards him not being lucky. Although he might not play a premium position, his defense is getting better with age. Jorge Polanco appeared on the precipice of making his return to Queens but has been shut down due to ankle soreness that popped up during his rehab stint. Whether Polanco is forced to miss just an extra week or a whole other month, Carlos Mendoza needs to find ways to get Young consistent opportunities. Carson Benge’s breakout is probably more sustainable and beneficial for the Mets’ long-term plans, but Young is proving that he can be more of a player than his constant shipped to and from the minor leagues.
