4/7/26

Tom Brennan - The Concerns of the Day






As the Yankees leave the Bronx warmth…
And the Mets return to frigid Citi…

 

I wonder what he is thinking. 


So…

Juanderful Juan Soto is out 2 to 3 weeks with his calf strain. Ouch.

Did it start to be strained running in cold game conditions weather? 

I’d like to ask him that.

How badly or well will the Mets handle this relatively temporary loss of their premier offensive player?

Your thoughts?

I also wonder if they would have been able to keep him as a “don’t run out of the batter’s box” pinch hitter instead. 

Thoughts?

One thought I had - he won’t be swiping 38 of 42 bases this year, as he did in 2025. 

Maybe that SB # falls to … zero in 2026?


“Sir Lindor the Hamate” is also a concern. 

He is 8 for 56 combined in both spring and regular season games, with exactly no homers and no RBIs. 

That is pretty dismal. 

When will he return to his former offensive prowess, and one has to wonder, in his zeal, did he return from his hamate removal surgery too soon?

Would an IL stint for him, calling up a Wyatt Young, or Jacob Reimer for a few weeks, make sense?  Wyatt could play SS, or Reimer could play 3rd with Bo B temporarily sliding over to shortstop. 

Can Lindor’s wrist really heal properly and quickly playing every day?

Thoughts?

Steve Sica- The Most Underrated Prospect in the Mets' System?

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In 2021, the Mets decided to part ways with one of their "five aces", Noah Syndergaard. He departed to free agency and signed with the Angels. 

That decision is still relevant to the Mets' five years later, because they were given a compensation pick in following year's draft. With that pick (75th overall) the Mets selected Nick Morabito. An outfielder out of Washington DC.

Over the next four seasons, Morabito would quietly rise through the Mets' prospect ranks. During his first full professional season in 2023, he batted .306 with an OPS of .828 as he split his time between the FCL and Low-A St. Lucie.

In 2024, he continued to get better across MiLB. During his first 24 games in Low-A he put up an otherworldly OPS of 1.043. That was more than enough to earn him a promotion to High-A Brooklyn, where his production continued to improve. Through 95 games with the Cyclones, he batted .294 and showed off his speed, by stealing 48 bases. 59 overall for 2024.

Morabito found himself starting 2025 in Double-A Binghamton. A level that separates the men from the boys so to speak. He had a slight drop off putting up an OPS of .733 but he maintained his consistency and finished the year with the eventual Eastern League Champion Rumble Ponies. 

In 118 Double-A games he collected 119 hits, stole 49 bases, and drove in 59 runs. Overall, a good season for the 22-year-old. He continued his 2025 campaign in the Arizona Fall League. 

I had the chance to see him play in the desert and he was one of Scottsdale's best hitters. Against some of the best pitchers that MiLB has to offer, he batted .362 with an OPS of .914, and in just 17 games he stole 16 bases. He also showed great plate discipline drawing ten walks while only striking out 15 times in 69 at-bats. He put up better numbers in the AFL than former Met prospects Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams had in 2024, and bested Jacob Reimer's tenure in the AFL, a prospect who is ahead of him in the Pipeline rankings. That's not to take anything away from any of those players, but it shows just how high a ceiling Morabito has.

This year, Morabito opened the season in Triple-A Syracuse, and so far, he's adjusted to Triple-A that same way he did in every other league after a promotion. In his first seven games, he's batting .333, with an OPS of .938, he has one home run, significant, because he only has 13 in his MiLB career, and already has two stolen bases. 

Morabito is on the doorstep of the Major Leagues, and what makes him even more likely to be called up sometime in 2026, other than his good play, is the fact that the Mets have a shallow outfielder depth with the big league club. 

Currently ranked as the #12 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Morabito has a very similar style of play to higher ranked prospects like A.J. Ewing, who was also a compensation draft pick. I'd imagine we'll see Morabito in Queens before 2026 is over.

Cautious Optimist - Let's Follow Some of Our Prospects This Summer







 Developing and Sorting Talent

In a previous series of posts on roster construction at the major league level, I argued that the most consequential factor is the ability of organizations to project the future performance of their prospects.  Part of the difficulty is obviated by the fact that the organization can secure evidence of performance of someone on a low A roster by promoting him to A+ level and so on -- all at reasonable costs.  Nothing predicts performance as well as prior performance and both positive and negative mistakes can be remedied by promotions that reveal actual performance at the next level without disrupting the long term goals of the affiliates.  After all, from the point of view of the organization, the goals of the affiliates are to turn out fans and to develop and sort talent, not to win a minor league championship. 

The calculus changes when the issue is projecting a prospect's expected performance at the major league level!  Promotions to the major league level will provide evidence but their doing so comes with the risk of adversely impacting the major league squad's chances of success -- which, after all, is the point. 

It is important to realize that part of what teams are willing to pay for free agents is correlated both with their lack of confidence in their ability to project how their prospects will perform at the major league level and the price they are willing to pay for the information free agents provide of their likely performance at the major league level as revealed by their actual performance at that level.  Both costs are premiums teams are willing to pay to reduce their risks.  In effect, teams reduce the risks of mistakenly promoting or failing to promote their own prospect.  Nor do they pay back the teams that have run those risks when those players become free agents.  Instead, they pay that premium to the free agent player.  This is an interesting allocation of costs and risks that calls for additional analysis.

The ultimate question for the team that pays a premium to free agents to reduce the risks and costs associated with making the wrong decisions about their own player is whether what they are doing is financially and/or baseball performance optimal.   Are they spending their money wisely?

That depends on whether or not there are less costly investments they could make in improving their evidence based confidence in judging the expected major league performance of their prospects.  In the series of posts I discussed some potentially cost-effective investments an organization could make.  The key idea is that the best predictor of performance is performance (as opposed to, say, skills or talent level).  But not just any performance will do.  

I argued that the best predictor of performance is performance under conditions that most closely approximate what the conditions the players will face at the major league level.  Teams can control this in several ways including fielding teams at the AA and AAA levels that include veterans with professional experience and others who have experience playing the style of play that the team teaches throughout the organization.  Read the relevant post for further development and clarification of my position. 

My main conclusion was that I believed that the Mets were adopting this kind of approach throughout the organization.  They were teaching a particular approach to the game both offensively and defensively, drafting and developing players accordingly.  I suggested that such an approach would be an integral part of the plan to produce sustained success at the major league level, and that it would do so by managing risk and costs optimally while increasing confidence in the team's ability to judge how well their best prospects would perform at the next level.  All of this is a matter of degree of course, and no strategy guarantees success.  Still the Mets are on to something in terms of creating one roster after another likely to compete at the highest level. Whereas player development never really ends, it is reasonable that the greatest marginal advancements should be made in the lower levels of minors and in the developmental leagues, and that more refinement both in performance, habits and style of play will occur at the AA and AAA levels.

Now it's time to turn theory in practice

I've decided that over the course of the current minor league season, I would track the performance of several of the Mets prospects scattered throughout the minors to see how the plan is working. I have drawn up an initial list of players scattered throughout the organization.  Here is my list

Infielders: Voit, Pena, Clifford, Reimer 

Outfielders: Ewing, Morabito, Serrano, Guzman 

Catchers: Suero, Guiterrez 

Pitchers: Wenninger, Santucci, Gordon, Watson, Tilly

I will report on how each is doing roughly once every two weeks.  That means I will probably cover half of the above list of players each week.  The problem will be giving roughly the same coverage to each starting pitcher as they obviously perform on a different schedule than do relievers and position players.  I will have to play this by ear, and see if I can develop a reliable reporting schedule.

A few other comments.  What I will be looking at is development.  For those in Port St. Lucie and Brooklyn, development just looks different than it does for players further along in their journey.  If you have particular metrics that you think I should employ, feel free to let me know in the comment section below.

Next, I make no claim about the uniqueness of the list I have drawn up.  One could have drawn up an equally good list consisting entirely of players none of whom are mentioned above.  I have left a couple of names off my list intentionally: specifically, Tong and Mauricio.  Mauricio is on his last option and I will discuss how he is doing from time to time as the season progresses.   I left Tong out because I believe the most important thing he will be doing this summer is developing secondary pitches and learning how to deal with adversity.  I expect to report on him from time to time as well.  Both Tong and Mauricio have also appeared in the majors but that is not why I left them off the list.  I just think there is more to learn about the others that is new at this stage in their development.

YOU are invited to join in

My list is not fixed in stone.  I expect that the performance of other players will draw fans' attention, and I will be prepared to make changes -- additions, subtractions based on reader interest as well as (God forbid) injury.  Just let me know in the comment section who you would like for me keep track of (and explain why), and I will do so even if I don't report on all of the suggested prospects from the outset.   I want to settle into a rhythm and figure out what sorts of information is interesting to the readership.

This will be more fun for all of us if you, dear reader, are willing to participate.

It's back to Coney Island for this Coney Island Baby (sorry Lou)

I grew up in Brooklyn, a driver and 3 wood (and a few hundred favorable bounces) away from Coney Island.  I played Little League baseball in the South Highway Little League on MacDonald Avenue at the outskirts of Beach Haven, where the great Woody Guthrie once lived and memorialized his run in with Fred Trump in song.  The Little League has since been fittingly renamed after the legendary Gil Hodges.  I have been credited with having thrown the first no-hitter in the league's history which was either the peak of my success or the start of my decline as a pitcher. It's all a matter of perspective, I guess. I pitched on the same team as Pete Falcone, who obviously had a far superior baseball career than me, as I never pitched for the Dodgers. 

Instead, I attended Dodger games at Ebbets Field since the age of 3 accompanied most often by my grandmother, Henrietta, my father's mother.  According to family lore, after graduating from High School and working to pay off his older brother's gambling debts, our father toiled as a minor league catcher in the lower rungs of the Dodger organization. His career was cut short by the combination of the need to earn a living and what was to be a life long battle with cancer that eventually did him in, but not before teaching my brothers and me how to throw a curve before we were 10 years old.  None of us have had Tommy John surgery, which is owed to the fact that our dad taught us good mechanics (even without the benefit of modern technology).  Our father endured tremendous pain over the course of his life, but never once failed to remind us  that 'rich or poor, it's good to have money' -- especially when our commitment to completing school work wavered.

My grandmother regularly wrote letters to Dodger President O'Malley demanding that she be hired to replace Walter Alston as the team's manager. I kid you not. She had strong opinions on just about every topic, and did not lack for confidence in them.

My older cousin Alan used to take me to Coney Island whenever we wanted to see the Dodgers at Ebbets Field.  There was a game in Coney Island where you bought three balls (maybe it was five) for a quarter (maybe it was dime) and you had to throw 3 of 3 (or maybe it was 5 of 5) in the strike zone which was a rectangle cut out of a wooden board.  If you succeeded in throwing the requisite number of strikes you were rewarded with a ticket to the game and a seat in the right field bleachers. 

My cousin Alan was among the best baseball players in the city at the time and regularly cashed in on game tickets for the two of us.  After a while the barker who ran the game just gave my cousin Alan the tickets to help save us some money.  My cousin was a contemporary of Rico Petrocelli, then the best ballplayer in New York and the star of the Sheepshead Bay High School team, one of the many high schools in New York that no longer exists as such. 

My cousin Alan continued to play in hardball baseball leagues until he was in his 50s. His son was hit by a pitch during his first at bat in his first game in Little League and gave up the game immediately.

In all the times I went to Coney Island, I could never bring myself to ride the famous, rickety, Cyclone. Well, this summer, I am returning to Coney Island (still afraid to ride the Cyclone) to cover the Cyclones for Mack's Mets.  I live in Ct now, but two of our children live in Brooklyn, and I expect to attend at least one Cyclone's game every two weeks when the team is in town and to report accordingly.  Hopefully I can entice one of our children into joining me from time to time.  

I hope to interview some players and coaches. I'd love to throw out a first pitch, preferably to my Dad.  That's even less likely than is my being transported to a waffle house in Burbank. Though I fully expect to avoid a ride on the Cyclone, as well as being transported to a waffle house, I am expecting to have a great time bringing some fun highlights to our readership.






4/6/26

Tom Brennan - Tasty Tidbits

TOM’S TASTY TIDBITS

 

The Mets are now winners of three straight games, are fifth in runs scored and 9th in batting average.

So that right there should make you smile.

Philadelphia? Schwarber is hitting .188 and Bryce Harper is hitting .139. So when you see our Kid Carson hitting just .100, compare that to the great Bryce Harper. Not much of a difference so far. But…Jared Young going 3 for 3 and playing strong in the field could earn Benge a ticket to Syracuse soon, if he doesn’t get untracked. Young has been on base 7 of 15 times, and fanned just twice.

Luis Robert, Jr? Superb, as has been Mark Vientos and the entire pitching apparatus so far.

The Mets are averaging 1.7 runs per game more than they are surrendering. And that ain’t bad.

The fact that they did that with only one bat in the last two games from Juan Soto is pretty darn impressive.

Down on the farm, Syracuse was the only team that played, because Binghamton and Brooklyn both got rained out. Syracuse won 4 to 3, getting a lot of good pitching, including a clean inning from Ryan Lambert, which was great to see.

Ryan “Take a Strike” Clifford has been up 34 times so far, with 16 strikeouts. Many of those strikeouts start with one or two called strikes. My suggestion to be more aggressive remains unchanged. 

It’s a heck of a lot better than striking out half the time. That didn’t work for Luke Ritter in AAA, ultimately.

Atlanta and the Marlins both look tough so far, and I think the NL is shaping up to be a dog fight. 

It is important that the MLB Mets pitching stays healthy, because pitching in the minor has the middle of that impressive so far although only Syracuse is really played a meaningful number of games so far. The other three franchises have only played a couple of games so far.

In the early running, 18year old Elian Peña is off to a strong couple of games for the Lucites.

Brooklyn? Two games in, 30 hitter Ks, just 7 hits. Buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.


Paul Articulates – Speaking with Rumble Ponies player Jacob Reimer


The Binghamton Rumble Ponies held their media day on Tuesday, so I had the opportunity to speak with two of their top prospects. This is the Jacob Reimer interview.

Jacob Reimer is the number 4 prospect in the Mets organization.  He  was a fourth round pick out of high school in 2022 and has spent the last four years climbing the ranks in the Mets’ organization.  He is currently ranked as the 2nd highest third base prospect in all minor leagues.  Reimer has been known for his powerful bat, compiling a .382 OPS (.425 Slug) in his minor league career.  Last year he helped lead the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies to an Eastern League championship with a dramatic go-ahead home run in the deciding game. Jacob was given a long look during spring training this year where he saw action in 13 games and had five hits in 19 at-bats.  The most impressive part of his spring was a marked improvement in his defensive positioning and fielding.  That was a weakness he needed to address and it looks like he has put in the work to improve.  Here is his interview:

Q: How did you feel in spring training this year with the opportunity to play quite a bit with the big-league club?

Reimer: It was good to get to know some of the MLB guys in the club house and get ready for the season with them.  I feel good and ready to go.  It was important to see how the players and coaches went about their business every day.  I feel like I have matured quite a bit in how I work now.  I learned how to maximize my work in the [batting] cage by working on every single type of pitch and staying very focused on just the pitch – doing less to get more.

Q: You had a great deal of success last season.  What have you been working on in the off-season and coming in to this year?

Reimer: Bat speed on the offensive side.  I want to become elite there.  But also defense.  I worked defense every day during the off-season.  My body feels good and is in the right place.  My range has gotten better.

Q: What did you learn last year by being part of these talented teams [Brooklyn and Binghamton]?

Reimer: A lot – I have learned a lot from all the guys I have played with.  I like to learn from every player I play with.  Benge, Ewing, Suero – all the guys were super talented and had something to show me.

Q: Congratulations on being selected to play in the Spring Breakout game this year.  That was quite an honor.  What was your take-away from that game?

Reimer: It was good to play with some of the top prospects from the Rays and see what they’ve got.  You have to have fun and realize that you are blessed to have the opportunity.  Many good or bad things can happen, so you just have to make the most of it!

Q: This team benefits from having a great deal of young talent and also some veteran experience.  How important is it to get off on the right foot this season?

Reimer: Everyone is super talented.  We have a lot of players that played in the Eastern League championship and also some more talented guys joining us.  I am very excited.  We are going to bring it every at-bat.  Every pitcher that comes in is going to bring it with every pitch.

Jacob Reimer comes into this season with some very high expectations as the number two third base prospect in baseball.  He seems to have the right mind set to make the most of it this season, as he has not rested on the laurels - he has put the work in to be a better ballplayer!

Reese Kaplan -- Some Good Things and Some Not So Good


In the first few games of the Giants series in San Francisco the Mets have looked little like the sleepwalking team that characterized their first week in the 2026 season.  All of the sudden the bats showed not only competence but real signs of life despite losing Juan Soto to injury who joined Jorge Polanco on the day-to-day list rather than being inked into the lineup every day.

What changed?

Well, for one thing, Mark Vientos has been absolutely on fire with his bat.  On Saturday he had three hits and left the game with a batting average well in excess of .450.  Tyrone Taylor playing out of seeming necessity while Luis Robert, Jr. got another day off drove in four runs which is more than many of the regulars have done for the early goings this season.  Even somnambulant Brett Baty woke up during this game. 

Of course, not all is right with the world.  Francisco Lindor is still in his early season malaise as he works his way back from injury.  Marcus Semien has heated up but still is in the .240s.  Bo Bichette has also started clawing his way back into All Star form but it’s going to take more than a hot couple of games to do so. 


Now about the one no one wants to discuss is the sub zero funk into which hot spring hitter Carson Benge has fallen.  As of right now Benge is closer to batting .100 than he is into crossing the Mendoza line.  A .111 average with one home run, 3 RBIs and 3 SBs does not suggest that he’s ready for this level of competition.  Interestingly manager Carlos Mendoza has not yet given him a day off to relieve some of the pressure.  The alternatives — Jared Young, benched Luis Robert, Jr. and multipositional player Brett Baty all are doing better in the early going. 

If we all take a deep breath then it’s much easier to realize that a mere 9 games into a 162 game marathon is not going to represent a collective yay or nay when it comes to concluding anthing definitive about the Mets offense.  Mark Vientos is as unlikely to hit .400 as Carson Benge is to remain in the .100 range.  Still, you look for signs of both positives and negatives wherever you find them. 

On the pitching side things are doing much better.  Even batting practice pitchers Dicky Lovelady and Luis Garcia didn’t lose the game for the Mets on Friday despite their heretofore best efforts to do so.  The starting pitchers of late like Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes have looked to be in midseason form. 

The bigger issues to ascertain are the two mediocre starts by ace Freddy Peralta and the good start/bad start dichotomy of David Peterson.  In between is the one start made by Kodai Senga which was filled with strikeouts and resulted in highly competitive pitching but it’s too soon to draw long lasting conclusions about him.  He’s certainly under the microscope as people struggle to evaluate which version of him the Mets will see in 2026 if he remains healthy.  

4/5/26

Tom Brennan: Why Don’t More Minors Hitters Become Catchers? Extreme Starts. Early Injuries


Mets win 9-0. Tyrone Taylor Goes Soto ++

Holmes and Myers are an ace duo, not an injury attorney law firm.


Tomas Nido As A Marginal MLB Catcher Has Earned Millions  

AS THE 2026 BASEBALL SEASON GETS UNDERWAY, HERE’S ONE LAST “OFF SEASON” TYPE ARTICLE” IN LATE MARCH BEFORE I SHIFT GEARS.

I occasionally wonder what goes on in the minds of minor league players. 

As you may recall, my question why minor leagues pitchers who are going nowhere (if those pitchers are being objective) don’t try to learn the knuckleball. Historically there have been many knuckleball pitchers who have pitched a tremendous number of highly successful years. And knuckleballers can still have success in today’s game, as the recent great success of Cy Young award winner RA Dickey showed that being a successful knuckleballer in today’s game is more than feasible. And can be more than lucrative.

RA Dickey indeed made a heck of a lot of money that he wouldn’t have otherwise made if he had not adopted the knuckleball. Multiple millions more. Tens of millions more in spendable income.

Someone just said to me, “ OK, Mr. knuckles, can we move onto another position, please?” So…

Let’s move on to the catcher position. 

Former major leaguer Keith Osik was no Keith Hernandez. Mr. Osik, a catcher who played parts of 10 years (1996-2005) in the major leagues, hitting just .231 with a slightly negative career WAR. 

If he played that many years in today’s game, as a backup, catcher, at today’s level of MLB salary rates, I am guessing he probably would’ve earned close to $20 million. I wonder, if he had not been a catcher, whether he would’ve made the major leagues at all, if he were forced to play another position. Had he not caught, then, he would’ve burned close to $20 million dollars (at current MLB salary levels) in lost opportunity revenue. 

Likewise, ex-Met Tomas Nido has played several years off and on in the major leagues as a (very) marginal catcher, and has made several million dollars in the process. His career is apparently not yet over, and he may make more money than that. Having seen him play, I can’t imagine that he was good enough that he would’ve made the major leagues at any other position, and he would’ve therefore made several million dollars less.

Then you have a guy like outfielder Cesar Puello, a former Mets prospect who, in 2013 in Mets AA, hit a sizzling .326/.403/.547. 

If you put up those kinds of numbers in 2025 in AA, the fan base would be drooling over him. After all, the revered Jett Williams in AA in 2025 hit a relatively inferior .281/.390/.477.

Puello played briefly in the major leagues, with some success. A not-shabby .246/.354/.347 in roughly 200 plate appearances, and then his big league dance was over. 

His 2013 AA Explosion was not his only banner hitting stretch in the minor leagues.

After his move away from the Mets to other organizations, in part-time play in AAA, he hit .327 in 2017 and .313 in 2018. He also had a strong arm, which successful catchers need, obviously.

He made less than $1 million in his career as a non-catcher. 

What if he had become a catcher? 

His bat seemed at least as good and most probably better than that of Tomas Nido. And he stole 44 of 54 in 109 minors games in 2010, so his speed was far superior to snail-speed Nido, who in nearly 1,000 pro games is just 5 of 10 in steals.

Perhaps Puello, like Keith Osik, could’ve been a 10 year, up-and-down guy if he had been a catcher instead, and made a whole lot of MLB cabbage.

So I just ask you: 

Why don’t you see any good minor-league hitters, who are running into the “can’t quite make it to the major leagues or only barely make it to the major leagues” syndrome, deciding to switch to catcher to try to become a second string MLB catcher in some organization and perhaps make $10 million or more in his career?

Typically, infield and outfield position players are more athletic than catchers. Someone would think that they could be adaptable to that position if they put in a grueling amount of work to hone catching skills and had a good arm.

I will make it personal before I leave….

If you were a good hitting minor league player, who is looking at the relatively few spots available at hitter positions at the major league level, and realize you might get shut out of the MLB game entirely just because there aren’t enough slots for a player of your talent level, why not switch to catcher and see if you can make it that way? What do you have to lose? 

AND A BETTER QUESTION: 

WHAT ($$$$$$) MIGHT YOU HAVE TO GAIN?

People in the real world switch jobs and careers all the time, and they do it many times because there are potentially far greater career earnings on a different path than what they started out on. 

Why do you see so little of that in baseball today? 

I understand that baseball specializes more than it used to, but that doesn’t mean a minor-league pitcher couldn’t try to master the knuckle ball, or a minor league position player with a strong arm couldn’t switch to a catcher role. And make a whole lot of dough.

That is one reason I really admire Chris Suero. He is pursuing the catching trade, even though he’s faster than most non-catchers in the minor leagues. I think the Bronx born Suero is really sharp in that regard and will be rewarded for his decision-making financially down the road.


EXTREME STARTS CAN SOMETIMES BE EXTREME INDEED

Hitters can struggle when they join a new team. 

Hitters can doubly struggle when they join a new team and they’re beaned by flamethrower Bob Gibson on the first pitch of spring training, as was Tommie Agee in 1968, just as Upper Deck Agee began his multi-season stretch with the Mets.

That pitch to the temple could’ve killed him. It didn’t but it did cause him a ton of post-event trauma. 

He started the season in 1968 well enough, going five for 16 over his first handful of games.  Then, pitchers began to realize that he was stepping in the bucket on pitches that started out inside, but broke away. He then started to get a steady diet of such untouchable pitches. So, after that 5 for 16 start, which looked so promising, he went five for his next 80. 

Surprisingly, in the second half of May he suddenly hit very well for 2 weeks. But then he went right back into the tank again, hitting just .136 in June and .125 in July. 

He ended that lost season hitting .217, with 5 HRs and 17 RBIs in nearly 400 PAs, only surpassing .200 due to a late season surge, finally climbing over .200 on September 19.

1969? Well, that year was pay back, wasn’t it? Pay back can be sweet.


ONE THING YOU DON’T WANT EARLY IN THE SEASON IS INJURIES

Jorge Polanco, he of the age of 32 who is set to turn 33 this summer, has a recurring Achilles tendon problem. Aging guys decline, at times due to chronic injury. Remember Yoenis Cespedes and his Achilles area injuries at around the same age?  I felt his pain.

The one thing that lessened the pain of Alonso’s  ew 5 year contract is he only misses a minimum amount of games and only when severely hit by pitches, so his COST PER GAME PLAYED is lower than the cost alone appears.


NOT AL JACKSON, BUT…

Saw this: The Mets are signing right-handed reliever Luke Jackson to a minor league deal.  Jackson, 34, pitched to a 4.06 ERA (4.49 FIP) and a 1.353 WHIP over 51 innings across 52 appearances last season while appearing for three big league teams: Texas, Detroit, and Seattle.


ODDS AND ENDS

Going into the season, Brooklyn’s line up to me looks - well, challenged - vs. high A pitching, and you can’t judge by very early games, except that ihe “challenge” showed up Friday evening in a 3-1 loss…4 hits, but 17 Ks. Next game, 3 hits, 13 KS.  SO…30 Ks in their first 2 games of 2026. Yikes!

Next…

Need to call up a reliever that is 7-0 in his MLB career? Try Austin Warren, who is 1-0, 2 saves, and just 2 baserunners allowed in 5 scoreless innings in early AAA action.

In Binghamton’s season opener, Crushing Chris Suero went 1 for 5 with 4 Ks. 

Terrible night?  Nope. 

He drove in 5 runs, with his one hit being a grand slam. And a sac fly.  

I’d take that every night, what about you?

Ewing is hot in just 2 games. Good sign. Very good sign.

In his first 2 St Lucie games, Elian Peña had 2 doubles, a single, and 2 walks. Sweet.

7-7-7 - it may look good on a slot machine, but not in pitching runs allowed.

Tong, (ex-Met) Sproat, and Scott each recently allowed 7 runs…that’s 21 total runs in approximately 8 total innings. Aces(?) Wild!


CAM TILLY PRO DEBUT

People loved his draft selection. Now, I see why. 

His St Lucie debut? 58 pitches, no hits, one walk, six Ks. 

Of course, if he debuted in AAA, he would likely have allowed 7 runs, too, like the three hurlers above…just kidding. 

GREAT FIRST OUTING! A DILLY FROM TILLY!

CONNER WARE, TOO. The 15th round lefty from 2025 went 3 scoreless one-hit innings, fanning 4 and walking nada, in his pro debut.



4/4/26

RVH – The Weekly Recap: Week 1, 2026 — Living on the Margins

 

This is the first pass at the weekly lens.

Same idea as last year’s monthly reviews, just compressed. The goal isn’t to react to a 7-game sample — it’s to understand how the games are being played and what’s starting to show underneath.

Week 1 doesn’t define a team. But it does start to show you how it’s wired.


Week 1 Snapshot

Metric

Value

Record

3–4

Pythagorean

3.3–3.7

BaseRuns

3.5–3.5

Run Differential

-2 (25 RS / 27 RA)

RS / G

3.57

RA / G

3.86

Clean profile. No luck gap. No distortion. The record matches the performance.


The Shape of the Week

  • One ceiling game

  • Two floor games

  • Most games inside a tight run band

  • Pitching kept them in almost everything

This was a margin week.


Run Creation — Distribution & RISP

Performance Tier

Games

Record

RISP AVG

Hits/AB

Ceiling (11+ Runs)

1

1–0

.385

5-for-13

Middle (3–4 Runs)

4

2–2

.192

5-for-26

Floor (0–2 Runs)

2

0–2

.000

0-for-11

Total

7

3–4

.200

10-for-50

The ceiling is real. The floor showed up twice.

The middle is deciding games — and right now, it isn’t converting.

Hitting Tier Performance

Tier

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

RISP

Prime

.253

.366

.440

.806

.222

Structural

.241

.290

.283

.573

.278

Bench

.211

.255

.240

.495

.071

Prime: Lindor, Soto, Bichette, Robert Jr., Polanco
Structural: Semien, Baty, Benge, Alvarez, Vientos
Bench: Torrens, Taylor, Young

Prime is carrying but not truly clutch.

Structural is connecting but not extending.

Bench hasn’t impacted leverage spots yet.

It's an executional conversion breakdown.


Run Prevention — Segmented Performance

Tier

ERA

WHIP

K/9

K/BB

Length

Rotation

3.33

1.26

10.86

3.2

5.4 IP

Leverage Core

0.71

0.55

12.4

4.5

Support Relief

6.23

2.54

7.1

1.1

Rotation: Peralta, Holmes, Senga, Peterson, McLean
Leverage: Williams, Raley, Myers, Brazobán, Weaver
Support: Manaea, García, Lovelady

Rotation is stable.

Leverage group is dominant.

Support tier is the only real leak.

Zoom out — they’re in almost every game.

That’s structure.


Game Type Distribution (Early Read)

  • Few blowouts

  • Multiple tight games

  • Outcomes decided late

This is the competitive middle.

That’s where teams define themselves.


Execution vs Structure

Execution:

  • .200 RISP

  • 0-for-11 in floor games

  • Bench: .071 RISP

  • Structural strikeout pressure limiting innings

Structure:

  • Strong run prevention baseline

  • Prime tier performing

  • Consistent game control

Right now, it’s execution. That will evolve.


Signal vs Noise

Likely Noise:

  • RISP inefficiency

  • Bench timing

  • Early sequencing

Potential Signal:

  • Built to play tight games

  • Run prevention foundation

  • Outcomes will live in the middle


Strategic Read

Nothing is broken. But there is friction.

The top of the roster and the leverage arms support a good team. The issue is the bridge — turning traffic into innings.

Right now: The engine is fine. The transmission is slipping.


What We’re Watching Next Week

  • RISP in middle-tier games

  • Support bullpen stability

  • Whether tight games start flipping


Closing Thought

This looks like a team that will live in the margins.

That works. But you have to win them. They need to do better to deliver on the blueprint.

It is very early...


Sources

  • Baseball Reference (game logs, splits, Stathead)

  • FanGraphs (BaseRuns, Pythagorean metrics)

  • RVH Internal Tier Framework (Prime / Structural / Bench)