Tom Brennan - Reason To Be Optimistic?

LUIS ROBERT’S ABSENCE…ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION?

Gloom and doom are in the air, everywhere, in Metsville.

I think much of that doom and gloom fails to disperse because of the critical injuries to Francisco Lindor, Francisco Ouch-verez, and Clay Holmes. 

I think the other long-term injuries have been manageable, but those three? Ouch!

Yet, the Mets are 10–5 in May. 

So much gloom abounds, and the team is 10–5 in May.

Tyrone Taylor, hitting just a buck-something, crushes a 2 out, 3 run game-tying BOMB in the 9th and the Mets win it 7-6 in the 10th. 

Crazy.

Maybe the kids (Benge, Ewing, and soon Wenninger) can keep this tug boat running. Humming, even.

Imagine if somehow, someway, the Mets are in contention in July. 

Not for the division, but for a wild card. 

And then, what would the three acquisitions be at the trade deadline?

Answer: Lindor, Alvarez, and the clay man. 

That would be pretty remarkable.

The Mets now play a mediocre, but not bad, Washington Nats team next. 

The Mets, they just gotta keep going 10-5 every 15 games. 

How hard can that be? I mean, come on really? 

A piece of cake, if you ask me.

Meanwhile, a brief minor league report: 

Jacob Reimer, who has been off to an absolutely miserable RBI start, seemed to wake up yesterday, with a three for three day with a walk and four RBIs. Let’s hope he goes on a tear. 

At the risk of beating a dead horse, they are finally playing in comfortable weather in Binghamton. Bats thaw out.

Brooklyn (10-28), meanwhile, lost again, on four hits. 

Through 38 games, they are hitting .180, which is the worst thing I have ever seen from a Mets minor league team offensively. Each day that they compile three or four hits is going to make it tougher for them to reach the .200 mark before the end of the season.

But heck, maybe they too go 10-5 in their next 15 games.

How hard can that be, really? They already know how to win 10 games.

Paul Articulates - The booby prize

The Mets won a series against the Yankees with a walk-off hit last night.  That puts them up 2-1 in the subway series, with three more games at Yankee Stadium in September.  Hold on to some hope that the Yanks will gift them two more games, because a Subway Series win will be the only title this team will contend for in 2026.

Despite the dramatic game-tying shot in the ninth and the walk-off win in the tenth, this team has shown that they do not belong in the playoff picture and in some ways do not even belong in a major league ballpark.

I am shocked when I see multiple players dropping fly balls in a three game series.  This might happen in a softball beer league, but in an MLB game?  Multiple times?  I am embarrassed and I don't even wear the uniform.

Speaking of uniforms, I believe that uniform number 59 is soon going to be available.  It doesn't matter that the Mets are paying Sean Manaea $17M this year, he does not deserve to wear it.  How many times does he have to get lit up by the opposing team before David Stearns decides to DFA him?  There are talented young pitchers in the development system that can learn a lot in the big leagues at no risk to team success (because this is not a successful team), so why not start working on the future.

Let's face it - the Mets have to play .600 ball just to be the last wild card team, and they have not really faced the tough teams in their schedule so far except one series with the Dodgers and one with the Cubs.  

Another uniform number that should be on the auction block in July is 19.  I think that Bo Bichette really epitomizes the folly of the off-season rebuild of the Mets.  Bichette is a guy with a baseball name and some good numbers on the back of his baseball card.  Those numbers were earned in Toronto, which is not a high pressure media environment.  Those numbers looked convincing when plugged in to the front office's algorithm, but in the spotlight of New York City, Bichette has withered.  

So has the absent Jorge Polanco, who delivered nothing before applying for sick leave with a boo-boo on his wrist.  The guys like Alonso and Nimmo that were ditched for these guys had their ups and downs, but they both proved that they could play in the difficult environment.  None of the free agent pickups that represented the "new core" of the team have shown that they could except Juan Soto.

Soto cannot carry this team on his back, and he has to be pretty displeased that he can't because his contract includes a half million dollars for an MVP award and $350k for a World Series MVP and both of those are unobtainable on a team that will probably finish the season with a .400 winning percentage.

If the Mets get a reasonable haul of prospects for the huge mistakes of this past off-season, there may be some hope in the future for this team.  For now, we can hope that by September 11th the games are meaningless for the Yankees so we can have a competitive rookie-on-rookie game with a chance to win the Subway Series and hoist the booby prize.

Reese Kaplan -- How to Replace Clay Holmes for a Few Months

Well, the Francisco Alvarez injury seemed like the latest health debacle to derail the already losing season for Steve Cohen’s Mets until Saturday when a batted ball resulted in a fractured fibula for their hottest starting pitcher, Clay Holmes.  A cracked bone that doesn’t require surgery is the best news they’ve gotten thus far and the expectation is that Holmes will return to pitch during the 2026 season.  In the interim, however, the question of how to fill the open slot in the rotation is what’s causing the most emotional buzz among the fans and media pundits.

Minor League Options

Right now the Mets have three starting pitchers in the minors to consider for an injury related early arrival to Queens.  One we’ve seen before, one we have not except for spring training and the third has just arrived in Syracuse but in his whopping two game stat sheet has looked ready for the higher level of competition.

Jonah Tong is very much a puzzling hurler.  He strikes people out at a very high rate and in 2025 was clearly the hottest starting pitcher in the Mets minor league hierarchy.  Then he hit the majors in September and the wheels not only came off but blew out spectacularly.  This year he seems to be on-again/off-again in his output.  Right now his ERA of 5.68 suggests he is not quite ready for prime time despite having 55 strikeouts in 38 IP. 

Quickly looking to bypass Tong on the promising pitcher depth chart is Jack Wenninger who has had just 7 starts in Syracuse but he’s absolutely making the most of them.  While questions have arisen about his less than spectacular velocity, it’s very hard to argue with his 7 games there that include 38 Ks in 32 IP, a 1.08 ERA and a batting average against of just .165.  It would seem that he’s showing the strong pedigree to give him a temporary shot in the majors and see whether he’s more McLean or more Tong when facing the best of the best. 

The third guy with very little experience in AAA is southpaw Zach Thornton.  During his three minor league seasons he owns a 3.04 ERA and in Syracuse thus far it’s just 2.25.  At age 24 he’s at the point in his development that a push to the majors may not be considered early but they probably want to see him deliver a bit longer in the minors before declaring him ready.

Major League Options

Here’s where it gets a bit strange.  For all intents and purposes David Peterson is a starting pitcher even with Huascar Brazoban taking over opener duties in his past several games.  So you can’t really count him in the mix.  There are others, however.

Sean Manaea is rapidly evolving into the 2026 version of Frankie Montas that makes people question David Stearns’ judgment in picking up starting pitchers.  He’s been banished to the pen as a punishment for his awful numbers as a starter.  Right now he’s sporting an overall 6.56 ERA with a godawful WHIP of 1.714.  For that output he’s earning $25 million this year and again next year.  Uggh!

Moving Manaea into the starting rotation once again has a few layers of probability.  First, he is an experienced starting pitcher and should not have the rookie growing pains that the AAA choices would likely endure.  Second, he right now has no value whatsoever as a trade chip, but if somehow he could turn things around to say a 4.00 ERA level as a starter then he opens up the possibility for the club to do a late July trade to another team who’s aching for a starting pitcher.

The other current roster member who could slot into the rotation would be former Brewer Tobias Myers.  While this year he sports just a single starting pitcher assignment, for his short career he has been in 64 games with exactly half of them as a starter.  His career ERA is 3.16 and this year he’s right near that number at 3.25.  The issue here would be arm strength as he’s been at best a multi inning reliever but not expected to carry the game for five or more innings.  Still, at nearly minimum wage and still just 27 years old he’s a hurler with a future on this club that should be longer than the one year remaining for Manaea.

Let us not forget about the other injured starting pitcher, Kodai Senga.  We all know how good he can be when he’s healthy but over the past few years remaining available to start every 5th day has not been something the Mets can write down in ink for their right handed ghost fork specialist.  With his injury history although he’s now working off the mound it’s likely a month or more before he’d be deemed ready.  Consequently he is not a short term solution for Holmes’ next start.

Now it is possible for the Mets to go out and look at either the DFA transactions or (shudder) actually make a trade, but thus far the club has not shown an inclination to add anything but scrap heap picks when needs arise.  With a fractured fibula the timeline for the bone to recover is 6-8 weeks but conventional wisdom has it more like 3 full months before someone resumes all normal activities.  For a professional athlete it could be even longer.  A three month outage means mid August if everything goes right.  That’s not right around the corner.  The easiest thing to do would be to return Manaea to the rotation but the smarter move might be promoting Jack Wenninger.  Time will tell.  

Tom Brennan - Mets Kiddie News and Thoughts

 

A BIG ZACH ATTACK

It is possible that Zach Thornton has leapfrogged over Jonah Tong.

In Thorton’s Friday night start, he threw six shut out innings in AAA, allowing just three hits in a walk, and fanning nine batters.

In the previous day’s game, Jonah was beaten unmercifully.

By the same opponent that Thornton whupped.

Tong? 1.2 IP, 7 runs, two homers allowed.

That says “LEAPFROG” to me.

THE WINNER OF THE AWARD FOR SLOWEST START GOES TO…

Yonaton Henriquez.

After a very good season in 2025, I was expecting big things.

But through Friday, Henriquez was just 4 for 50 (.080) with Brooklyn.

Hey…. I fib you not.

Close runner up?

R.J.Gordon.

After a very good season in 2025, I was expecting big things from R.J.

But through Friday, Gordon had made five starts this season.

In those five starts, he had a total of just seven innings.

His ERA exceeds 21.00, and his WHIP exceeds 3.00.

You can’t even use the old adage that he is getting his work in.

Seven innings in five starts disqualifies him on that count.

If you want to flip my two man ranking order there, feel free.

QUESTION…

Would you trade rhe Mets’ Nolan McLeam for Cam Schlittler, straight up?

The Cam Man is 6-1, 1.35, 0.78 WHIP in 10 outings this year. Cy Young?

Our guy is great. Cam is…deGrom ++?

Oh, and the Mets won. 6-3. Benge and Soto had 5 hits, everyone else had 3.

And Brooklyn lost 1-0, and sits at .182 after 37 games. I like .282 better.

And Randy Guzman launched his 8th rocket. At 117.6 MPH.

Have a blessed Sunday, everyone.

And remember… 

While Clay Holmes got hurt only because he was not wearing full body armor, the personal decision to wear body armor is only one that you can make for yourself.

I kind of like the White Knight look, myself.

Tom Brennan: Players With Injury Histories Should Not Be Acquired Willy-Nilly; Next Man Up?

LUIS ROBERT

Mets Injury Poster Child, Rehabbing For A Mere $125,000 Per Game 

David Stearns said this on Tuesday:

“We absolutely have to look at our risk assessment on injured players,” Stearns said. 

“We know we’re taking a level of risk when we bring players in with injury histories.”

“We’re feeling that risk right now, and it hasn’t helped that a number of our players have gotten hurt at the same time.”

“It’s not something that we necessarily anticipated, and it’s something we need to look at.”

Well…to that, I say…

You are the baseball decision maker for the franchise. You darned well have to do more than cross your fingers and acquire players with injury histories. You have to, to use your words, “necessarily anticipate”.

Montas, Robert, and Polanco are just 3 very expensive injured puppies that immediately come to mind in that regard.

Then Alvarez goes down, joining Lindor, Tauchman, Mauricio, and Young on the IL with extended stays.

Me? I prefer bumbling to crumbling. 

Anyway…

In January, not knowing some of the newly acquired players anywhere near as well as the Mets should have known them, I wrote this:

“I will throw some numbers at you:

110, 127, 139, 138.

That’s how many games Luis Robert, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and Jorge Polanco were in last year.

Collectively, employing my considerable mathematical skills, that comes out to 134 combined games that they were NOT in. 

Or, looked at another way, they missed 27% of the 162 games.

So, for those concerned about where Baty and Vientos will get their ABs, those concerned citizens of Metsville should keep in mind that they no longer have to play on the same roster as Messrs. Nimmo and Alonso who, combined, missed just 7 games last year, or just 2% absence, for the percentage-minded among us. 

The Iron Men of 2025 are gone. The Part Timers are here.”

How prescient that turned out to be.

Nimmo and Alonso combined missed just 2 games this season thru mid-week.

They were Iron Men in 2025, and are Men of Steel in 2026, too.

We have a team of Putty Men now. Men seemingly made of Clay.

David, I must say: naivety is not an intelligent strategic strength. 

It can lead to franchise disaster.

Oh, and back to Alvarez…

Alvarez is hurt - again? I say…Trade him whenever his value is high. 

Why? He will likely get hurt again…and again…and again. 

Based on his track record.

He takes a licking and just stops ticking. 

Oh, and…

Misery, it seems, loves company in Queens…

HOLMES JOINS THE METS’ FREAKY LENGTHY INJURY PANDEMIC

 RED ALERT!!

 NEXT MAN UP…

The Mets lost two on Friday night:

First, they lost 5-1 to the superior Yankees.

Then they lost Clay Holmes, too. How?

“Clay Holmes was pitching in the fourth inning at Citi Field when Yankees DH Spencer Jones struck him on the right leg with a 111.1 MPH comebacker. The right hander stayed on his feet, even going as far as to jog after the ball, before receiving a visit from Mendoza and a trainer - even then the concern did not immediately present itself. After a couple of warm-up pitches, Holmes said he was fine and remained in the game, throwing 6 straight balls but recovering to strike out two more batters.”

He then came out of the game, and got x-rayed.

He found out that he had a broken fibula. 

I fib you not.

Everyone was surprised… 

But not me. You see…

The curse is real. An inch to the right or left, and he’s just bruised.

Clay Holmes was not injury-prone.

He was healthy as a horse.

Now, he might return by late July.

A Devastating Blow.

I guess, as of Saturday AM, that Jack Wenninger is next starter up.

It is a matter of “Wenn”, not if.

If so, I have a suggestion for young Jack: 

Wear body armor on the mound.

RVH - Part 1: How Bad are the Mets

 

The Mets are 18–25.

That is the only record that counts. No one gets standings credit for context. No one gets a playoff spot because the roster was banged up, the rotation was unsettled, or the expected record looked better than the actual record.

But if the goal is to understand what this team really is, not just react emotionally to what it has looked like, context matters.

And the context says something important.

The Mets have not simply been bad. They have also leaked wins.

Through 43 games, the Mets are 18–25. Based on runs scored and runs allowed, using the standard MLB Pythagorean formula, their expected record is closer to 20–23. More precisely, the weekly model puts them around 20.4–22.6.

That does not make them good. But it does suggest they have left roughly two wins on the table through sequencing failures, close-game losses, bullpen leakage, and inconsistent execution.

That distinction matters more than it may seem.

At 18–25, the Mets look buried. In the current National League Wild Card picture, they sit seven games back. That sounds like a team fading toward irrelevance before Memorial Day.

But at roughly 20–23, the Mets would look very different. They still would not look good. But they would be much closer to the crowded middle of the Wild Card race, near the cluster of National League teams hovering around 20 or 21 wins.

That is not contention in the strong sense.

It is survival.

It is relevance.

It is staying close enough for health, regression, and reinforcements to matter.

That is the real cost of the leaked wins. The difference between 18–25 and 20–23 is not cosmetic. It is the difference between feeling buried and still feeling within striking distance.

The weekly breakdown helps tell the story:

Week	W-L	RS	RA	RDiff	RS/G	RA/G	Weekly Expected	Cumulative Expected
Wk 1	2–1	22	15	+7	7.33	5.00	2.0–1.0	2.0–1.0
Wk 2	4–3	38	24	+14	5.43	3.43	4.9–2.1	6.9–3.1
Wk 3	1–5	14	28	-14	2.33	4.67	1.3–4.7	8.8–7.2
Wk 4	0–6	11	35	-24	1.83	5.83	0.6–5.4	9.2–12.8
Wk 5	2–4	18	22	-4	3.00	3.67	2.4–3.6	11.6–16.4
Wk 6	3–3	25	24	+1	4.17	4.00	3.1–2.9	14.7–19.3
Wk 7	3–3	22	26	-4	3.67	4.33	2.6–3.4	17.2–22.8
Wk 8	3–0	22	8	+14	7.33	2.67	2.6–0.4	20.4–22.6
Total	18–25	172	182	-10	4.00	4.23	—	20.4–22.6

The obvious disaster came during Weeks 3 and 4. That was the April collapse. Across those two weeks, the Mets scored 25 runs and allowed 63.

That was not bad luck. That was poor baseball.

The expected record during those two weeks was almost identical to the actual collapse.

But outside that stretch, the picture becomes more layered.

Week 2 was probably the first major missed opportunity. The Mets went 4–3, but their run differential suggested something closer to a dominant 5–2 week. They scored 38 runs and allowed only 24. That was one of the strongest underlying stretches of the season.

The inability to fully convert that into wins may have quietly set the tone for the weeks that followed.

Then came the recent stabilization.

Weeks 6 and 7 were important because the Mets played almost exactly to their underlying numbers. They went 6–6 while their expected record over that period was roughly 5.7–6.3. That suggested the chaotic variance of April might finally be fading.

Week 8 took that one step further.

The Detroit sweep was not just three wins. It was three wins backed by the scoreboard underneath the scoreboard. The Mets scored 22 runs and allowed only 8. They averaged 7.33 runs per game, matching their Week 1 offensive peak, but this time paired it with elite run prevention at 2.67 runs allowed per game.

That is the first truly balanced week of the season.

Before the sweep, the Mets looked like a team trying to stop the bleeding. After the sweep, they look at least temporarily like a team that may have found a foothold.

The last three weeks now matter. Across Weeks 6, 7, and 8, the Mets are 9–6 with a +11 run differential. That does not erase the April collapse. It does not make the full-season record acceptable. But it does begin to shrink the distortion created by the winless Week 4 road trip.

That can be interpreted two ways.

The optimistic interpretation is that the Mets stopped the bleeding and are beginning to stabilize.

The harsher interpretation is that they merely beat up on Detroit at the right time and still remain well below where they need to be.

Both can be true.

The Mets are still in trouble. An 18–25 record is not a rounding error. They dug a real hole. They do not get to explain away April.

But the Pythagorean view helps clarify the hole. This is not a team with no pulse. It is a team that played terribly for two weeks, leaked several winnable games around that collapse, and has recently started to perform more like a competitive baseball team.

That is why the next few weeks matter so much.

The standings say the Mets are in trouble.

The Pythagorean record says they have underperformed.

The Wild Card picture says the gap between buried and relevant is only a few wins.

And the Detroit sweep says there may finally be some stabilization.

That does not guarantee recovery.

But it does suggest the story of the 2026 Mets may not yet be fully written.

The Mets may still be bad.

But after Week 8, we may finally be getting closer to learning whether they are broken, or whether they have simply been late to stabilize.