Tom Brennan - Did Stearns Do Enough With The Starting Rotation in 2025?

A nasty job, trying to figure how many starters you will need.

I will give you my answer to “Did Stearns Do Enough With The Starting Rotation in 2025?” right upfront: 

YES, he did enough, at least almost entirely so. Sometimes, avalanches kill seasons, though.

I’m on hiatus, but I thought I’d just throw this article in.

The Mets started the season with a planned rotation of Peterson, Holmes, Senga, Manaea and Montas.

Redundancy included Megill, Canning, and Blackburn.

The future included McLean, Tong, Sproat, and Tidwell, in that talent order, with Tidwell the most ready of the 4 for a call up at the start of 2025.

I add that up, and I have 12 guys that can start, Without getting into having to dip further down and one what I affectionately referred to in the past as” Subs and scrubs” starters.

Manaea and Montas in Spring training went down faster than a parachutist whose parachute wouldn’t open. But sliding Megill and Canning into the quickly badly damaged rotation was both doable and the obvious choice.

And, logically that worked well. After all, the parachutists were both supposed to be back by the beginning of June, so why go out and try to acquire more talent to start?

And not only logically, but in actuality, it did work out well - at least until early June, when Senga went down with a freak injury that was not supposed to be that lengthy, but which screwed up his season thereafter.

Then, almost immediately thereafter, the freak Injury to Canning. Tearing his Achilles tendon on a nothing burger play, and suddenly out for the season.

And Megill’s sudden arm issues after a strong April and May - and, of course, the delayed returns of Manaea and Montas.

Things got very dicey quickly. Very quickly.

Well, Manaea and Montas finally both Returned, and the two starters did not provide relief. Manny was lousy, and Montas gave the Mets a handful of crappy starts before his arm blew up. 

Senga,who had been stellar up to his bizarre injury, Returned but was lousy thereafter. 

Blackburn and Tidwell were both tried for a total of six starts and found to be very Crappy.

The crumbling starter cohort was frankly astonishing to watch. 

How could so many starting pitchers go so wrong so fast?

Stearns then decided to beef up the pen rather than the Starting rotation, probably for two reasons: one, he had the three young studs in the minors that were getting close, and two, he must’ve thought that the bullpen adds that he made, Helsley, Soto and the submariner, would give him a killer pen that he could minimize starter innings and maximize pen innings, so that he would be getting the team ready for the long haul in the playoffs with out burnt out starters. 

Then, Garrett got hurt and Helsley was gosh-awful. Can ANYTHING go right?

Then Peterson (3.18 ERA thru mid August) pitched really poorly after an 8 scoreless inning start. I guess going 8 was an unforeseeable mistake there.

The only real flaws that I saw in the Stearns unfolding strategic moves were that he could’ve called up McLean sooner, and should have definitely promoted Tong to AAA sooner, to put him up against more challenging hitters. When I was pondering things last Summer, it kind of hit me that AA hitters, were they to be promoted as an entire team wholesale to the major leagues, would probably hit about .120, while AAA hitters (if you promoted an entire team to the major leagues) would probably hit about .175. The disparity between AA hitting and AAA hitting as compared to majorly hitting four entire teams at each of those levels is quite drastic.

Tong only got three AAA starts against .175 guys, when he should have been promoted to AAA a month earlier and gotten 8 such starts, to be readier for a sudden call up to the Mets, where in the majors they hit .240, or twice as good as AA hitters. Stearns Should’ve raised Jonah’s treadmill sooner, in essence. Too conservative.

So, I don’t think Stearns with starters did a bad job. We have to realize that he didn’t have a crystal ball going into the trade deadline, but I repeat the one real flaw that I saw was just not pushing the astonishing prospect pitching trio along a little faster. McLean excelled, but Tong would have done better I did not been left in AA so long

Now, back to my hiatus.

RVH - August 2025: Meanwhile, Down on the Farm...

 When the System Became the Only Option

This is the seventh installment in the 2025 Mets Season Review Series. Each post steps back from day-to-day noise to diagnose what actually happened, why it mattered, and what it revealed about the organization beneath the results.

The Mets did not plan to rely on three rookie starters in the heart of a pennant race. But by mid-August, the organization no longer had a choice.

This piece sits between August and September for a reason. It is the hinge. August exposed the limits of the major-league roster — specifically the club’s ability to prevent runs once pitching depth eroded — and the trade-deadline bets. What followed was not desperation, but deployment — the system finally stepping in where the top of the roster could not.

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The Context That Forced the Move

By mid-August, the Mets’ rotation was no longer merely thin. It was functionally broken.

• Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were effectively shut down as reliable contributors. Senga never recovered from his hamstring injury, and Manaea could not regain form or durability.
  
  

• David Peterson was running on fumes, showing clear fatigue-related collapse.
  
  

• Clay Holmes, despite solid results, was operating at roughly 2× his prior-year innings load and could not consistently reach the 5th–6th inning.
  
  

• No durable starter had been acquired at the trade deadline, largely due to prohibitive acquisition costs.
  
  

The result was predictable. The bullpen was overexposed. Once opponents consistently reached five runs, the Mets’ margin for error disappeared. AAAA spot starters rotated constantly. August collapsed.

At that point, the question shifted from “Should we?” to “Who gives us the best chance to win tonight?”

David Stearns answered it with desperate action.

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Nolan McLean — The Stabilizer

Arrival: Mid-August
Role: Immediate rotation relief

McLean was the first lever pulled, and the most important.

2025 Minor League Performance

• ERA: ~1.98 across Double-A and Triple-A

• Strikeouts: 62 in 59 IP

• Profile: Power arm, elite spin, improving command

MLB Impact

McLean did not arrive as a developmental experiment. He arrived as a stabilizer.

• Took the ball every turn

• Provided regular, competitive starts

• Reduced bullpen strain immediately by restoring innings stability

• Showed advanced pitchability, not just raw stuff

His ability to miss bats and limit walks translated quickly. For a team bleeding innings, that alone was value.

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Brandon Sproat — The Ceiling Play

Arrival: Late August
Role: Upside rotation injection

Sproat’s season was nonlinear — and that mattered.

2025 Minor League Arc

• Early Triple-A: 6.69 ERA through May

• Adjustment Phase: Velocity and movement gains

• Finish: One of the best arms in the system by year’s end

Scouting Reality

• Triple-digit fastball

• Two distinct breaking balls

• True top-of-rotation physical traits

Sproat was promoted not because he was “ready,” but because his ceiling mattered. With the rotation already fractured, the Mets needed arms that could change outcomes, not just absorb innings particularly in games already slipping toward high run totals.

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Jonah Tong — The Breakout

Arrival: Early September
Role: Strikeout weapon, late-season jolt

Tong’s rise was the most dramatic.

2025 Minor League Dominance

• MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year

• ERA: ~1.43 across 113+ innings

• K Rate: At times exceeding 15 K/9

• Fastball: ~95 mph with elite vertical break

• Secondary: 12–6 curveball, improving changeup

Tong forced the issue. He wasn’t next on the depth chart. He was simply too good to ignore.

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Why This Mattered Structurally

This was not a victory lap for the farm system. It was an organizational stress test.

What the Mets Got Right

• The pipeline existed

• Pitchers were being developed, not just accumulated

• Arsenal depth and pitch design translated upward

• Promotion decisions were pragmatic, not dogmatic

What This Exposed

• The major-league roster lacked durable rotational redundancy

• Deadline conservatism carried real in-season cost

• The system was forced into action earlier than intended

As one evaluator put it:

“Development wins don’t count in the standings — but without them, this season collapses sooner.”

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Strategic Framing

In a perfect world, McLean, Sproat, and Tong debut quietly in 2026. In reality, the Mets needed them now. That is not a failure of development.

It is evidence that the organizational floor was finally strong enough to absorb a shock at the top. What it could not yet do was fully repair a run-prevention system already under water.

September would determine whether this was merely survival — or the beginning of a different kind of roster logic.

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🔁 Transition

With the farm now actively contributing at the major-league level, September becomes less about collapse and more about evaluation under real pressure.

Next up: September 2025 — The Hand-Off Month.

Reese Kaplan -- Perhaps There Is a Plan After All

Many of you all here and among my Met fan friends know I have been less than charitable on how David Stearns has operated as the head honcho of the business of baseball at Citifield.  First were the free agent departures of Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz, then the trade of Brandon Nimmo for a good glove and questionable bat in Marcus Semien.  Those three things alone were enough to sour many fans on how the 2025 team finished with a lineup and bench far superior to what's on tap for 2026.

Others have longer memories and hearken back to 2024 when a team in desperate need of offense signed a career .247 hitter to play center field, then repeated the same exercise with the trade for Jose Siri and the subsequent trade for Cedric Mullins.  When the starting rotation was in shambles in 2025 he did nothing at the major league level to address the problem and instead waited until late August and early September to force feed three AAA youngsters to help bolster the give-away pitching that they were starting 4 out of 5 days.  He did make an earnest effort to improve the porous bullpen but only Tyler Rogers performed as expected while Ryan Helsley and Gregory Soto did not help win ballgames.  

With players starting to report to Port St. Lucie on February 11th the Mets still have not changed the starting rotation at all except by integrating Nolan McLean who looked brilliant in his brief major league trial.  The bullpen may be better or may be worse depending on the health of A.J. Minter and the performance metrics of former Yankees Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.  

Obviously there are a great many things to criticize in how things have gone for the Mets yet at the same time the people excoriating Stearns for missing out on Kyle Tucker really are a bit off base.  It's odd for me to be in the position of defending the former Milwaukee executive but step back for a moment and think about what actually happened.  By all accounts the Mets had upped their annual offer from $50 million to $55 million and the length of the deal from three years to four.  

Is Kyle Tucker worth more than Juan Soto?  The $60 million he got from the Dodgers far exceeds what the Mets are paying their cleanup hitter.  You really can't fault Stearns for being cheap nor for being stingy with the contract duration.  The Mets offered $220 million over 4 years and the Dodgers bumped it up to $240 million for the same duration.  Pretty much any ballplayer would not walk away from an extra $20 million and the chance each season to be in the World Series.  Don't blame this specific transaction on the oft-criticized David Stearns.

Now, however, the gloves must come off.  With Cody Bellinger apparently looking for over $30 million per year for 7 years he's not exactly going to be consistent with the fiscal responsibility some felt the Mets would exercise for the present and future payroll obligations.  There is not likely going to be a David Stearns press conference with Bellinger at his side holding his name printed on a Mets jersey.  

What almost no one saw coming was the rapid signing of potentially the best right handed bat available in Bo Bichette who hits for average and power for $18 million per year less than Tucker and adding a much needed right handed bat.  That's the good news.  

The bad news, of course, is that Bichette is a challenging player defensively and Stearns was quite vocal in his desire for run prevention.  Shortstop is filled.  Theoretically second base and third base are already filled.  There's another infielder slated to play first base.  

So what happens now?  Is Brett Baty crossing the diamond to try his never-before-tested hand at first base opening up third for Bichette?  Do you try to ask Bichette to play a brand new position that Alonso vacated?  Do you attempt to convert Bichette into an outfielder like his father had been?  Do you bench newly acquired and expensive Marcus Semien? 

If you go back and look at the remaining available free agents for the outfield where the Mets still have two vacancies that need to be filled.  The pickings are mighty slim.  Miguel Andujar, Austin Hays, Harrison Bader and Randal Grichuk represent the best of the remaining lot.  It seems most of the free agents available have already been snapped up by more aggressive GMs who wanted to secure their rosters early into the off season.  On the DH front the only name with some note would be now former Brave Marcell Ozuna.  He had a mediocre 2025 and is getting up their in age which might appeal to the short term contract oriented Mets front office but he's not going to be available for chump change either.

Trades are going to have to be made.  You still need two starting quality outfielders.  You still need to improve the starting rotation.  You need a long man in the bullpen.  Young players who have not yet become regulars during their major league careers like Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuna may have to be on the move to address these needs as well as top level minor league prospects.  It also means Brett Baty may now become a trade chip to land an impressive outfielder or starting pitcher.

At this point many are wondering exactly what the plan was for building the roster.  Letting players walk away and trading a few long term Mets was one thing.  Adding Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien to replace the offense of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil doesn’t quite add up.  Now factoring the acquisition of Bo Bichette actually does.  They still need outfielders.  They need better pitching.  The clock is still ticking with Spring Training just over three weeks away.

Reese Kaplan -- How Does the Lineup Look Right Now?

One of the thumb twiddling exercises people have been doing since the Kyle Tucker rumors hit the surface is how and where it will shape the New York Mets team and lineup should he, unlike the myriad of other quality ballplayers David Stearns failed to land actually chooses to begin the next phase of his professional career at Citifield. On Thursday, of course, all that speculation went out the window as Tucker chose to sing his own version of "I Love L.A."

I had originally written a long piece about the way Tucker would fit into the Mets offense but those paragraphs are now gone with the wind, much like Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz who chose to go elsewhere.  

Against left handed pitching the current club may have a few issues.  Newcomer Marcus. Semien indeed bats right handed but his offensive metrics have been trending downward for the past two years with the home run totals and RBI totals a shell of his former self.  Last season he was working through some injuries and it’s possible he can revitalize a little bit but at age 35 this upcoming season he’s not exactly cleanup hitting material.

Then you have another great unknown in the other direction in Francisco Alvarez.  Last late season he was hitting with authority after again fighting through hand issues but his power dropped precipitously from a total of 25 HRs and 63 RBIs in his 2023 season to a combined 22 HRs and 67 RBIs during the aggregate of 2024 and 2025 for a full season’s worth of ABs.  The positive sign is the batting average going from a .208 number three seasons ago to .256 this past year.  If he can continue his solid hitting progress and provide 20 HR power playing as a regular then he would be a supportive member of the team against southpaws akin to what Brett Baty might down from the left side against righties. 

Don’t forget the switch hitters here, either.  Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco are going to help against both left handed and right handed pitchers as well.  Currently the only location for a right handed offensive weapon to be added to this lineup is a center fielder with a much stronger bat than Tyrone Taylor.  There are spare parts that could be traded such as Mark Vientos, one of the current starting pitchers and some of the higher level pitching and offensive prospects who have not yet made regular performance metrics for the the big club. 

Offense aside, the other issue is defense.  Right now everyone knows Juan Soto may be a HOF type of hitter and runner but he was at the bottom of defensive scores for right fielders.  

The other side of the outfield dilemma is who plays where.  Given the magnitude of Soto’s contract and his cleanup level hitting do you risk asking him to take his less than stellar defense to left field and allow an unknown newcomer to assume where he had been playing in right? 

As far as center field goes no one knows what to expect.  Earlier in the off season the rumors included oft injured but highly talented Byron Buxton but the current belief is that he’s off the market.  There’s always Luis Robert, Jr. from the White Sox, but he’s not exactly a guaranteed offensive improvement though he would address defense quite well.  Tyrone Taylor is a very good fourth outfielder but he has demonstrated during his Mets tenure he is not a starting capable hitter.  Until center field is addressed no one is sure how the lineup will be constructed.

RVH - August 2025 Review

 

When the Margin Finally Gave Way

This is the sixth installment in the 2025 Mets Season Review Series. Each post steps back from day-to-day noise to diagnose what actually happened, why it mattered, and what it revealed about the organization beneath the results.

August was not a surprise. It was the month where every assumption embedded at the trade deadline was tested simultaneously — and most of them failed.

Data sourced from BB Reference, Fangraphs, StatHead. BaseRuns and Pythagorean Record here.

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📊 Monthly Snapshot (August)

OUTCOMES

Games	28
Record	11–17 (.393)
Runs Scored (RS)	177
Runs Allowed (RA)	152
Run Differential	+21
RS per Game	6.32
RA per Game	5.57

OPPONENT & SCHEDULE CONTEXT

Opponent W% (season)	.507
Games vs Playoff	13 of 28 (46%)
Home Games	14 of 28 (50%)
Road Games	14 of 28 (50%)
Days Off	3
Postponements	0
Doubleheaders	0

This was the worst month of the season by a wide margin — and the first where results fully caught up to structure.

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🧮 Outcomes vs Expectations (August)

Measure	Actual	Pythagorean	BaseRuns
W–L Record	11-17	~16–12	~17-11
Win %	.393	~.558	~.624
Run Differential	+21	+21	+43

Takeaway:
August performance aligned tightly with BaseRuns. There was no bad luck left to hide behind. This was what the underlying profile had been trending toward.

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⚾️ Run Creation — Monthly

Runs Scored Distribution

RS Bin	Games	W–L	Win %
0–2 RS	6	0–6	.000
3–4 RS	8	2–6	.250
5–6 RS	6	4–2	.667
7+ RS	8	5–3	.625

Quantitative read

• Offensive inconsistency worsened

• The floor collapsed

• Even “good” scoring nights no longer guaranteed wins

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🛡️ Run Prevention — Monthly

Runs Allowed Distribution

RA Bin	Games	W–L	Win %
0–2 RA	4	4–0	1.000
3–4 RA	7	6–1	857
5–6 RA	9	1–8	.111
7+ RA	8	0–8	.000

Quantitative read

• More than half of August games allowed 7+ runs

• The Mets lost control of game shape early and often

• The bullpen was no longer protecting anything

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🧠 Qualitative Context (Monthly)

This is where the trade-deadline assumptions unraveled:

Rotation collapse

• Manaea and Senga were effectively shut down as reliable options

• Peterson was clearly running on fumes and getting hit hard

• Holmes, while competitive, could not consistently reach 5 innings

• The rotation’s innings shortfall became unmanageable

Bullpen overload

• The bullpen was asked to cover volume it was never designed for

• Tyler Rogers, solid overall, struggled with inherited runners in July and early August

• Helsley was ineffective for most of the month

• Soto was uneven and matchup-limited

• Leverage arms became volume arms — and performance followed
  
  

Acclimation & disruption

• Several deadline additions were in their first MLB trade / new city

• Roles shifted rapidly

• Clubhouse and usage patterns changed under stress

• None of the new players meaningfully stabilized August outcomes

Mullins experiment

• Cedric Mullins provided neither offense nor defensive stability

• By late August, Tyrone Taylor was reinserted into the lineup

August was not one failure. There were many small failures occurring without any remaining buffer.

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📈 Season-to-Date (Through August)

📊 STD Snapshot

Metric	Value
Games	134
Record	70–64 (.522)
Runs Scored	641
Runs Allowed	575
Run Differential	+66
RS per Game	4.78
RA per Game	4.29

By the end of August, the Mets had effectively given back all early-season surplus.

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🧮 STD Outcomes vs Expectations

Measure	Actual	Pythagorean	BaseRuns
W–L Record	70–64	~75–59	~73–61
Win %	.522	~.560	~.545
Run Differential	+66	+66	+66

STD takeaway:
The Mets had crossed the line from outperforming their structure to being constrained by it.

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🧩 Strategic Takeaway

August exposed the cost of not acquiring a durable starter at the deadline. The decision was understandable. The prices were real. The risk assessment was coherent.

But the consequence was unavoidable:

• When the rotation collapsed, there was no external support

• When the bullpen overloaded, there was no internal slack

• When new players struggled, there was no stabilizing layer beneath them

This was not mismanagement in August. It was the bill coming due.

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🔁 Closing Transition

Meanwhile, down on the farm, the next wave of starting pitchers were rapidly approaching — not as a luxury, but as a necessity. September would not be about recovery.  It would be about survival, evaluation, and transition.