MACK – STRIKE NEWS UPDATE

 

No active strike or lockout is underway yet, but a lockout by MLB owners is widely expected once the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, 2026 (at 11:59 p.m. ET).⁠

The main dispute centers on economics. Owners are pushing for a hard salary cap and floor (the first serious proposal of this kind since the 1994-95 strike that canceled the World Series). The MLB Players Association (MLBPA) has firmly rejected any salary cap and views it as a non-starter.⁠

Latest developments

MLB made a new proposal: a projected salary cap of about $258.2 million and a floor of $180.2 million, with implementation delayed until the 2028 season (to give teams time to adjust payrolls). It framed this as roughly a 50-50 revenue split (with some notes on how amateur bonuses factor in). The current competitive balance tax system would remain for 2027 under this plan.⁠

The MLBPA quickly rejected it, stating that owners continue to propose “blowing up the current system and replacing it with one designed to line their pockets and increase their franchise values.” Players have counter-proposals focused on higher minimum salaries, expanded free agency/arbitration rights, a higher competitive balance tax threshold, increased revenue sharing, and other benefits without a hard cap.⁠

Negotiations have been ongoing since earlier in 2026, but little substantive progress has been reported on the core economic divide. A lockout is viewed as nearly certain, with the key question being its length.⁠

Context and potential impact

The current five-year CBA was agreed to in March 2022 after a 99-day owner lockout that delayed the start of that season (but preserved a full schedule once resolved).

Free agency is open now, but a lockout would freeze major-league transactions, player-club contact (for 40-man roster players), and use of team facilities.

The 2027 season is scheduled to start around March 24; spring training is set for mid-to-late February. A prolonged stoppage could delay or shorten it. Experts note the risk of lost games if talks drag on, similar to historical work stoppages.⁠

In short, the sides remain far apart primarily over the salary cap issue. Expect a lockout to begin in early December unless a surprise agreement is reached in the coming weeks. Talks are led by MLB Deputy Commissioner Dan Halem (with Commissioner Rob Manfred) and MLBPA interim Executive Director Bruce Meyer.

RVH - Building a Sustainable Winner: Part 3: The Stearns Inheritance

 

Milwaukee’s success raises an obvious question for Mets fans: 

How much of what we see today was built by David Stearns?

My assessment is that Stearns left a substantial foundation for sustained success. Matt Arnold and the organization continued developing it, made important additions and produced results that deserve their own credit.

Understanding that distinction matters. If we want Milwaukee’s experience to help us evaluate the Mets, we need to identify what Stearns actually contributed, what he inherited and what happened after he stepped aside.

Start with the right handoff date

Stearns relinquished control of baseball operations on October 27, 2022. Arnold took over, while Stearns remained in an advisory role. mlb.com

That makes the end of the 2022 season our primary handoff point. His continued presence in the organization during 2023 should not cause us to assign that year’s decisions automatically to him.

There is another complication: Arnold had worked alongside Stearns since 2015. This was a leadership transition within an established organization. mlb.com

We can reasonably identify who held final responsibility for a decision. We usually cannot determine how much each scout, coach, analyst or executive contributed to it.

What did the results show?

The three-year comparisons provide a useful starting point:

Period	Regular-season record	Winning percentage	Postseason achievement
Stearns’ first three seasons: 2016–2018	255–232	.524	One appearance; reached the 2018 NLCS
Stearns’ final three seasons in charge: 2020–2022	210–174	.547	Two appearances; no series wins
Arnold’s first three seasons in charge: 2023–2025	282–204	.580	Three division titles; reached the 2025 NLCS
Latest three-season window: 2024–2026	293–193	.603	Three division titles; won the 2026 NL pennant

Totals calculated from annual results. The shortened 2020 season makes winning percentage more useful than raw win totals. The final two rows overlap and are not independent comparisons. The 2026 World Series remains ahead as of this writing. StatMuse

The record supports two conclusions.

First, Milwaukee became a recurring contender during Stearns’ tenure. Second, the organization continued improving after the leadership transition.

Those later results are consistent with a strong inheritance and effective subsequent management. The standings alone cannot tell us how to divide the credit.

The inheritance included players at different stages

The organization Stearns left contained established major leaguers, developing players and prospects whose best seasons were still ahead.

That mix is central to the story. A successor inherits more than the opening-day lineup.

Player or asset	Acquisition under Stearns’ leadership	What carried forward
Brice Turang	First-round pick, 2018	A developing player who became part of the current core
Garrett Mitchell	First-round pick, 2020	An outfielder whose major league career was just beginning at the handoff
Jackson Chourio	International signing, 2021	Significant young talent requiring further development and a retention decision
Jacob Misiorowski	Second-round pick, 2022	A newly drafted pitcher with most of his development still ahead
Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz	Acquired in the 2022 Hader trade	Pitching talent and an asset available for a subsequent trade

Acquisition history: FanGraphs RosterResource and MLB transaction reporting. FanGraphs Baseball

These examples make the Stearns connection tangible. Several players central to our current roster analysis entered the organization while he was in charge.

They also demonstrate why acquisition credit should not become exclusive credit. Selecting Misiorowski in 2022 and turning him into a major league contributor involved work across both leadership periods.

Chourio presents the same distinction. The initial signing belonged to one period; his continued development, major league opportunity and long-term contract extended into another.

Stearns also inherited important talent

A fair assessment must apply the same standard backward.

Brandon Woodruff was drafted in 2014. Devin Williams was drafted in 2013. Both entered Milwaukee’s system before Stearns arrived. Baseball-Reference.com

Josh Hader also arrived before Stearns, through Milwaukee’s 2015 deadline trade with Houston. mlb.com

Their subsequent development and use became part of the Stearns-era success. Their original acquisition belongs to the preceding administration.

That does not diminish Stearns’ contribution. Developing and retaining inherited talent is an essential part of running a baseball organization. It does establish that Milwaukee’s success spans more than one executive’s tenure.

The same principle applies to Arnold today.

The Hader transaction connects three administrations

The Hader sequence is particularly useful because it shows how value can travel through an organization.

Milwaukee acquired Hader before Stearns. Stearns later traded him in a package that included Gasser and Ruiz. After Arnold assumed control, Ruiz became the outgoing asset in the transaction bringing William Contreras and two pitchers. mlb.com

The credit therefore has several components:

Stage	Contribution
Original acquisition	The preceding administration brought Hader into the organization
Development and major league use	Milwaukee converted that talent into substantial production
Stearns’ 2022 decision	Exchanged Hader for a package including future assets
Arnold’s subsequent decision	Converted Ruiz into a different package suited to Milwaukee’s needs

Calling Contreras simply a “Stearns acquisition” would obscure Arnold’s decision. Treating the transaction as unrelated to Stearns would ignore the asset Arnold used.

This is also where hindsight requires restraint. The eventual return does not settle every question about the timing of the Hader trade or its immediate effect on a contending team.

Milwaukee finished 2022 outside the playoffs. That outcome belongs in the evaluation alongside the later benefits.

Arnold’s contribution goes beyond managing inherited players

The current roster contains meaningful acquisitions made after the handoff.

Bauers and Trevor Megill arrived in 2023. Joey Ortiz arrived in the 2024 Burnes trade. Chourio’s extension was another consequential decision made after Stearns stepped aside. FanGraphs Baseball

The prospect system has continued changing as well. Jesús Made and Luis Peña signed in January 2024. mlb.com

Their presence matters to our assessment. The next generation includes talent acquired after Stearns’ departure, alongside prospects inherited from his tenure.

Organizational continuity can help explain that success. It cannot justify assigning every subsequent good decision to the former leader. Arnold’s staff still had to evaluate players, allocate resources, manage setbacks and make choices.

What can we reasonably conclude?

The evidence supports a strong, qualified judgment: 

Stearns helped build an organization capable of sustaining contention beyond his own tenure.

His contribution is visible in players acquired under his leadership, assets available to his successor and the competitive position at the handoff.

The record also shows that Milwaukee continued progressing under Arnold. The successor’s work added value to what was inherited.

There is no defensible basis here for assigning Stearns a precise percentage of the current team’s success. Acquisition dates can be counted. Coaching, development, judgment and organizational continuity cannot be divided that neatly.

For Mets fans, the useful question is whether Stearns can create similar advantages in New York: productive acquisitions, a continuing supply of young talent, useful trade assets and enough depth to keep the club competitive through change.

Cohen’s resources give him additional options. Those resources still need to translate into production and sustained results.

Our next installment will compare Milwaukee and the Mets as they stand today: 

The quality of their players, the depth behind them, the cost of the roster and the years of control still available.

That comparison will help us assess how far New York has progressed toward the kind of organizational strength Milwaukee has demonstrated.

Paul Articulates - Run the option

The MLB deadline for teams and players to exercise contractual options has now passed, and there is a substantial list of names because contracts now are frequently negotiated with options to use flexibility as an enticement.

With the CBA expiration date of December 1st looming, the decision to exercise or decline an option becomes more complicated.  

Will things like salary caps and floors change the dynamics of the free agent market?  Of course!  So if you are a free agent and the rules change, you head into uncertainty.  This did not necessarily sway the bulk of the decisions though, as there were more declined options (21) than exercised options (17).  

There also was one unique option, which was a vesting option that goes into effect if the player meets certain performance criteria.  This was accomplished by Yandy Diaz of the Rays who earned his $13M salary for next year by achieving 500 at-bats and ending the year healthy.  Personally I like this type of option because it incentivizes performance and health maintenance.  Take note, David Stearns!

The following list of players and options gives more insight into the names that have just entered the free agent market and those that have shut the door.  

Many starting pitchers are on the list, which may be intriguing to a Mets front office that needs to add in that category.  Unfortunately, Sandy Alacantra, Corbin Burnes, and Drew Anderson were opt-ins so they are not available as FAs.  Michael King, Sonny Gray, Lucas Giolito, Dustin May, Nick Pivetta, Nick Martinez, and old friend Griffin Canning were opted out and are now available.

Other interesting names included on the list were the expected team option declines on former Mets Ryne Stanek, Luis Robert Jr., Gary Sanchez, and Canning.   Eugenio Suarez had his $16M option declined by the Reds, which would have been interesting news had Bo Bichette not passed on his opt-out.

Of the 21 names that did not have their options exercised and have returned to the greater free agent market, there are not many other than King and Gray that look like big plays for the Mets’ needs.  

Stearns may see others as potential depth pieces, but with the current crop of almost-ready minor league players in the system at middle infield and outfield positions, the only need for “depth” would be at first base or a relief pitcher.

Keep your eye on the market, as the dominoes will begin to fall as soon as the top of the market (Skubal) makes a decision.

MACK – Christian Cairo

 

 

The Mets announced that they signed infielder Christian Cairo to a major league contract, which included a slot of the 40-man squad.

Cairo (full name Christian Miguel Cairo, born June 11, 2001) is a 25-year-old right-handed batter/thrower and the son of longtime MLB infielder Miguel Cairo. He has no major league experience. Cleveland drafted him in the fourth round in 2019; he spent most of his career in that organization before signing a minor-league deal with the Phillies for 2026 (they added him to the 40-man roster in spring training and optioned him).⁠

The Mets claimed him off waivers from the Phillies in mid-September 2026 after Philadelphia designated him for assignment.

2026:

    AAA/PHIL - 406-AB, 4-HR, 35-RBI, .227

    AAA/METS - 7-AB, 0-HR, 1-RBI, .429

He posted a strong walk rate (92-BB/525-PA) but limited power.⁠

He is a versatile defender with experience at second base, shortstop, third base, and the outfield positions, plus speed and on-base skills. He has minor-league options remaining. The split contract (majors vs. minors pay rates) followed by the DFA is a common roster maneuver intended to make it more likely he clears waivers and remains in the organization as depth.⁠

He is expected to compete for a utility/bench role in 2027 spring training, depending on the Mets’ roster construction.

Tom Brennan - My Top 1 Thru 5 Mets Prospects; Don’t Forget Tylor Megill; And More

 

THE CRÈME DE LA CRÈME! 

These top 5 players are all high pedigree, given where they were drafted (or given the size of the non-draft international bonus they received). 

All 5 should live up to that pedigree and impact the NY Mets in 2027. 

Some high picks are busts, but these 5 look GOOD…all to me are shining brightly.

All five could be Mets starting players by opening day 2028. 

It will be up to management’s shoehorn to make room for them, for that to happen.

1) Jefferson Rojas:

“Who’s number one”?

Mets traded both Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to get Rojas. Another infield Jeff.

The Cubs signed him for a cool $1MM and started him in the DSL in 2022.

Who is Rojas, skills-wise? 

A real pro hitter, with good pop, and he will be a good future (I.e., 2027) major leaguer. He cracked 12 HRs and drove in 36 runs in just 35 games in Mets AA and AAA. 

He only had 6 AAA games, making it more likely that he will start out in AAA in 2027 before his MLB debut. 

But, with a high draft pick at stake to the team whose player wins 2027 ROY, he may play with the Mets right away, to give him a real shot at ROY.

Defense is solid and versatile. 

Speed? 21 steals, and just 14 errors at SS, 2nd, and 3rd in 2027. 

He is virtually ready. If not completely ready. Of that, I am virtually sure.

2) Mitch Voit 

I am extremely high on first round draftee Mitch Voit. How high? 

“AJ Ewing high”. 

MLB Voit debut? I’d peg it for mid-2027. Another possible player to get a full year in the majors next year, in the chase for the lucrative ROY award.

Turned 22 on Sept 30, so he plays all of next year at age 22. 

He hit just .273, but much of that was in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn? It sucks to hit there. 

Ignore all Brooklyn numbers. Always.

So, he got promoted to AA and in 29 games there, he hit .347/.430/.517. 

Some say he had an unsustainably high BABIP (.371 for 2026) , and I probably agree, but his speed likely boosted his BABIP a lot. Also, he was also scorching hot until he was HBP in August, missed some games, and was cooler thereafter, so who knows. The slash line in AA may be the real deal.

He is blisteringly fast, with 65 of 76 career steals in 127 pro games.

Defensively at SS and 2B, just 12 errors, and 70% of his games were at SS, so that is an excellent defensive first full pro season.

So, defensively, he is MLB ready.

Me? I am “Mitch Voit ready”.

I expect, though, that like AJ Ewing in 2025, he will get a 2027 month or two in the minors, then get called up.

3) Billy Amick 

Amick has C4 explosives in his bat. 

“Power Supreme,” Terry Collins might say.

Amick fans a lot, sure. Go ahead, be picky. But he came into 2026 with less than 350 pro at bats, like a barely broken in car, and so spending all of 2026 at AA and AAA makes his high K rate seem quite expected, and quite improvable. Solution? More PAs.

The 60th overall pick in 2024 hit an astounding 15 HRs and drove in 36 runs in 36 post-trade games in the Mets organization. And 38 HRs and 108 RBIs overall in 122 games. Project that over a full 162 games and you get 51 HRs and 141 RBIs. 

Are you still nitpicking? 

Need I remind you that Kyle Schwarber fanned 220 times in 156 games? And 1,029 times in his last 5 seasons. But…

Hit 45 HRs too. And 101 rockets over two seasons. 

And he is deemed a top echelon MLB slugger. Maybe this is Amick’s prototype.

Amick had 74 walks and HBPs in those 122 games, which works out to 100 BBs over 162 games. Much better in that regard than Mauricio and Vientos.

Billy had just 9 errors in over 100 games at first and third base. He can field, but he won’t steal more than the occasional base.

My guess? Ready to break into the bigs in mid-to-late 2027. 

Could his ceiling be Kyle Schwarber? Maybe. I dunno. But…Amick is…

Another guy I would move the Citi Field fences in for. 

P.S. At the beginning of November, the Mets website listed an updated top 30 prospects. Where did Billy Amick fall in the top 30? Answer: he didn’t. I don’t care. I’m sticking with Billy at number three.

4) Jonathan Santucci 

Santucci is still Superb, as the laser lefty keeps getting better. 

He led the entire minors in Ks in 2026, with 163 in just 125 innings, a great ratio for a starter.

In both 2025 and 2026, he start those seasons shakily, his first flaw.  

So, I would definitely leave him the minors until May or June next year. 

He got 8 starts in AAA late in the season, and posted a 5.24 ERA with 6 HRs allowed in 34 innings there. But, prior to AAA, he had allowed just 13 HRs in 209 pro innings, a fine rate. 

He is rated to have a 55 fastball and curve ball and a 60 slider. Impressive.

His second flaw? 

He allowed 25 runs in 24 innings 5 thru 7 in games in 2026, so he must be able to go deeper into games without getting torched. 

Both flaws will assuredly be fixed.

I still see him as more of a starter than a star reliever in the big leagues. 

Santucci was a 46th overall pick in 2024, so he has high expectations.

From me, at least. 

I think he will be Superb. The Mets do need another Jerry Koosman now. Santucci? Maybe.

5) Emilien Pitre 

The man with the French nom, from Repentigny, Canada, was the 58th overall pick in 2024.

Pitre, who will be 24 in 2027 and is quite ripe, talent-wise, hits like a young Jeff McNeil.

Pitre presumably means “squirrel” in French. C’est incroyable.

Man, can he get on base!  He loves freebies.

87 walks and HBPs in 118 games, which projects to 120 over 162 games. 

He also can hit, and not fan much, giving him a dandy 2026 slash line of .306/.420/.427. 

20 games in AAA, where his slash was still solid: .260/.357/.370.

Power is not really his game, but he still has some pop. He had 35 XBH in those 118 games, which is not shabby. 

Decent speed, and defensively, just 8 errors at 2B in 97 games, and none in several games at 3B, so his glove is MLB ready. He can also handle SS in a pinch.

Major league ready? 

Probably, and if Semien weren’t in the infield, I’d say definitely, but more seasoning time could only help Pitre. I still think if Semien is not released, and if he wasn’t owed so much, he would clearly be jettisoned, then Semien IMO should be converted to a first base platoon with Jared Young, until Amick is ready, and otherwise, when not playing 1B, Semien can be a utility player in 2027. Or, at least, for part of it.

Get these 5 kids up to the Mets as soon as possible.

I can envision this line up in 2028:

1B - Amick

2B - Pitre

SS - Voit

3B - Jefferson

LF - Soto

CF - Ewing

RF - Benge

C - TBD. Torrens/Alvarez, for now is acceptable.

DH - Lindor

Brings a big smile to to my face. 

Yours, too?

So ends my Top 30 prospects series. 

Except to say that I will add a 31-40 and 41-50 breakdown in two subsequent articles.

Please note that some teams, like the Brewers, appear to have even better top 5 prospects. 

Had the Top 5 not been boosted by three trade deadline prospect acquisitions, the Mets’ top 5 compared to the Brewers top 5 would have fallen very far short.

ON ANOTHER TOPIC… 

DON’T FORGET HIM…

YES, TYLOR MEGILL LIVES

I saw this in a late October article:

“Megill wrapped up this summer with live bullpen sessions at the Mets’ rehab facility in Port St. Lucie, Fla., sitting 96-97 mph with his fastball and topping out at 98.”

Says he plans to come to spring training at 100%. Like a normal season.

Me? I am excited to see what a healthy Tylor Megill can do.

Hopefully like his big brother Trevor. 

The Cubs had dumped his brother Trevor. The Brewers hit gold with him.

Trevor closed out the Brewers’ 2026 World Series on the mound. Nice.

ON YET ANOTHER TOPIC…

WHY ARE THE METS ADDING THESE MARGINAL ARMS TO THE 40 MAN?

I’ve seen the Mets add Messrs. Anderson and Ohl to the roster and a few more guys perhaps that I missed. Marginal guys. But apparently, with at least some major league potential for the 2027 pitching staff as fill-ins.

After scratching my head for a while, since I know that the men will probably add at least four guys to their now–completely-full 40 man roster, I realized that perhaps the Mets will sign them to a major league contract of some sort (perhaps with a costly AAA salary if pitching in the minors) at minimum wage, and then run them through waivers to get them off the 40 man roster, so that they would be available for next year.

We can all fantasize that the Mets will never need marginal pitchers to build up the Mets pitching depth, but the days of using only 15 men to pitch during the season (e.g. 1969 and 1986) are long gone. I believe that the Mets over the last two years used, on average, around 40 pitchers. To do that, you gotta stock the shelves. You likely will find these two guys stocked on shelves in aisle 14 in the Syracuse Home Depot.

Sometimes, you get lucky with these fill ins. The Mets once upon a time stocked the shelves with RA Dickey. He turned out to be the Cabbage Patch doll of his day. 

Not to digress, but every once in a while, I openly wonder why more guys don’t look the master the knuckleball. RA did, and earned about $40 million doing it. He would’ve earned about $39 million less if he hadn’t mastered the knuckleball. At last I checked, in today’s money that 40 million would’ve been about 70 million, and, I don’t know, that sure seems like a lot of money to me. If I were a marginal picture, I would try to master it myself.

Reese Kaplan -- In This Swiss Cheese Roster, Which Hole is First?

Gather a group of Mets fans into a room and there is very little they will likely agree upon except mourning the loss of southpaw Jerry Koosman.  

Going into the 2027 season the Mets have some very clear needs to address in the attempt to extricate themselves from the basement but here no one can readily agree pick a single one of these several areas and prioritize as the number one priority.

Starting Pitching

If the season started today the Mets rotation would included Gold Glover Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton, Christian Scott, Sean Manaea and one of the handful of starter number five contenders that include Tylor Megill, Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers and even Kodai Senga.  While you could make the case that the top three are pretty good choices, it starts to get pretty murky after that.  Both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are in contract walk years so it is entirely possible to trade one or both to another club not looking for a long term financial commitment (particulary if the Mets pay down some of the salary).  As a result many are advocating that the Mets step up to find one or two veteran starting pitchers (including a true ace) to take the mound every fifth day. 

Relief Pitching

Here the picture is extremely bloody.  First you have the question of who closes games for the Mets.  Devin Williams has face planted two straight seasons in the city of New York while the Mets remain on the hook for his salary through 2028.  Laying aside the deferrals, he averages $17 million per season and it is pretty common practice in baseball that salary dictates playing time.  Then there is the matter of Kodai Senga who shockingly pulled himself from the brink of a DFA by becoming the emergency closer during Wiliams’ injury departure.  Right now in what is likely his final year in a Mets dugout many are not convinced what he showed in August and September is replicable yet at the same time not a single fan wants to see him in the rotation ever again.  Still, you can’t argue with his sub 3.00 ERA as a closer.

After that the picture gets even less clear.  During the great pitching selloff in August the Mets pretty much gutted their bullpen with A.J. Minter, Huascar Brazoban and Luke Weaver all being sold off for a passel of prospects.  That’s a trio of formidable arms that have not truly been replaced.  Yes, the got some good innings out of Austin Warren, Daniel Duarte and Nate Lavender.  Others trotted out there including Dedniel Nunez did not help at all.  It is clear that this segment is in major need of reinforcement.

1st Base

Ask anyone around baseball and they will all applaud the highly unexpected job done by fringe player Jared Young during 2026.  The problem is that between the USA and Korea he’s never established himself as a regular and now on the wrong side of 30 it is highly unlikely to conclude he’s showing his true self in what most regard as an outlier year.  Jorge Polanco was mostly injured and even worse at the plate.  Mark Vientos was somewhat better with the stick but on the field at first he was even worse than he was at third while continuing to struggle mightily against right handed pitching.  Many want to see the Mets come up with a starting capable and viable solution here but unless they engineer a trade they will either have to spend VERY big to land Teruaki Sato or they will hope for a platoon partner who can be the next Jared Young.  Of course, if you ran the front office you still have that expensive sub Mendoza hitter on the roster, too.

2nd Base

In one of yet another Stearns disastrous roster moves he brought in a clearly over the hill Marcus Semien to fortify the defense when it became clear that his bat wasn’t the only aspect of his game that had deteriorated significantly.  The Mets are on the hook to him for another $46 million between 2027 and 2028.  Unlike Manaea and Senga, the club has already sent signals that the expensive keystone is not likely going to start again after his .215 season.  The problem is that unless they plan to shift A.J. Ewing to second base for 2027 they don’t have a minor league replacement waiting in the wings other than perhaps Ronny Mauricio.  Many feel addressing the second base issue should be at or near a top need to be addressed.

Designated Hitter

The black hole for the New York Mets who even got subpar performance out of veteran hitter J.D. Martinez who is now transitioning to become a professional pickleball player.  Obviously the very fragile Jorge Polanco could fit here but other than transitioning Juan Soto to strictly a hitting role, it would appear there are no viable in-house options to make this spot in the batting order better than the embarrassment it has become. 

Of course, many feel the number one priority is a General Manager, but that's a rant for another day.