Mack – A Baseball Strike Primer

 

I asked an ‘expert’ to update us on the impending baseball strike:

 

It’s not a players’ strike that’s impending—it’s a widely expected owners’ lockout of the players when the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires.⁠

The five-year CBA (agreed in March 2022 after a prior lockout) ends at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1, 2026. MLB is expected to lock out the players immediately afterward if no new deal is reached, freezing major-league activity (no free-agent signings, trades, or player access to team facilities). This mirrors the 2021–22 lockout, which lasted 99 days and delayed the 2022 season start by about a week without canceling games.⁠

The 2026 World Series just ended (Milwaukee Brewers defeating the Tampa Bay Rays), so the offseason and free agency are underway. A free-agent signing frenzy is possible in the coming weeks before any freeze. Top free agents include names like Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Seiya Suzuki, and Randy Arozarena. Opening Day for 2027 is scheduled for March 24.⁠

Core Dispute

Owners (led by Commissioner Rob Manfred) are pushing hard for a salary cap (and floor)—their strongest effort since the 1994–95 strike that canceled the World Series. Their proposal includes a 2027 cap around $245.3 million (with a floor near $171 million) and limits such as a player maxing out at 15% of a team’s payroll. They argue it would reduce payroll disparity between big- and small-market teams.⁠

The MLB Players Association views a hard salary cap as a non-starter. Players want expanded free agency and arbitration rights, a near-doubling of the major-league minimum salary, more revenue sharing from high-revenue teams, and taxes on low-payroll teams. Negotiations have been ongoing since roughly May, but the sides remain far apart on the main economic issues, with little sign of a deal by the Dec. 1 deadline.⁠

Outlook

A lockout on/around Dec. 1–2 is the strong consensus expectation across reporting.

Talks could drag; some analysts suggest serious progress might not come until spring training is threatened or later, raising the possibility of delayed or missed 2027 games (unlike the shorter 2021–22 stoppage). A prolonged fight evokes the damaging 1994–95 strike.

Other topics on the table include potential season-length changes (e.g., a proposed 154-game schedule), postseason tweaks, amateur draft/entry rules, and more.

Free agency and other offseason business can proceed normally until the CBA expires.

The situation is fluid but tense, with both sides digging in. The 2027 season’s full schedule is at risk if the lockout lasts deep into spring. Check major sports outlets for the latest proposals or statements from Manfred or the union as December approaches.

Here’s a clear breakdown of the main positions in the current MLB CBA negotiations (as of late October 2026), based on the opening and subsequent proposals from both sides. The core fight is over economics and competitive structure, with a hard salary cap as the biggest

Owners / MLB Want

Hard salary cap and floor: Cap around $245.3 million (luxury-tax payroll basis) and floor around $171.2 million for 2027. High-spending teams (e.g., Dodgers, Mets, Yankees) would need to cut payroll significantly; low-spending ones would have to increase it. Includes limits such as a player maxing out at ~15% of a team’s payroll.⁠

50/50 revenue split of baseball-related revenue (similar to other major sports), with an escrow system to enforce it. Players currently receive more than 50% under existing definitions, so the union views this as a reduction.⁠

Centralized/equal sharing of local media revenues to reduce disparity and help address blackouts, plus broader revenue-sharing reforms to support small-market teams in meeting the floor.

Restrictions on free agency and contracts: Limits on contract length (e.g., proposals for 5–6 year maxes depending on whether a player stays or leaves) and total value; elimination or changes to deferrals in some proposals; potential formula-based systems instead of traditional arbitration.

Other structural changes: Possible shorter regular season (e.g., 154 games), postseason tweaks, international/amateur draft reforms (including restrictions on younger players), and measures aimed at competitive balance and franchise values.

Rationale: Address large payroll gaps, improve consistent competitiveness for small markets, control costs, and boost long-term team valuations. Owners cite “unprecedented unanimity” on pursuing a cap.⁠

Players / MLBPA Want

No hard salary cap — this is a firm non-starter. They view it as institutionalized collusion that suppresses salaries, reduces player freedom/movement, makes contracts less fully guaranteed (via escrow), pits players against each other, and ultimately benefits owners’ profits and franchise values more than competitive balance. They point to the recent low-payroll World Series (Brewers over Rays) as evidence the current system already allows competition.⁠

Much higher minimum salaries: Near-doubling to $1.5 million in 2027 (rising toward $2.2 million by 2031). Higher floors for arbitration-eligible players (e.g., at least $3 million).⁠

Expanded free agency and arbitration access: Free agency after 5 years of service for players age 30+, expanded “Super Two” eligibility (more players reaching arbitration a year earlier), and related service-time protections against manipulation.

Soft payroll floor / “Competitive Integrity Tax”: Penalty on teams that fail to reach a minimum payroll (proposed around $150 million initially), to force spending rather than pocketing revenue-sharing money.

More revenue sharing to small-market clubs: Guarantee every low-revenue team a minimum (e.g., ~$240 million annually), with stronger incentives/bonuses for winning or making the playoffs, and rules ensuring money is spent on the roster. Raise the luxury-tax (Competitive Balance Tax) threshold significantly (e.g., to $300 million initially).

Eliminate the qualifying offer and related free-agent signing penalties (draft-pick compensation), which the union sees as a drag on the free-agent market.

Larger pre-arbitration bonus pool (e.g., from $50 million to $180 million) and other gains for younger/mid-level players, plus roster flexibility improvements.

Rationale: Preserve and strengthen the free-market system that has driven high player earnings, get younger players paid earlier, incentivize real competition (punish tanking/low spending), and share more revenue without artificial salary ceilings.⁠

Key Context

The sides have been meeting regularly since spring/summer 2026 but remain “worlds apart” on the core economic issues. Owners’ proposals are largely contingent on accepting a cap system; the players reject that foundation entirely. Secondary issues (scheduling, draft, etc.) have been discussed but are secondary until the money is resolved.⁠

Both sides have framed their positions as better for fans and the long-term health of the game. A lockout is widely expected when the current CBA expires on December 1 if no deal is reached.

Tom Brennan - Inherited Runners Scored and Other Pitcher Trivia

Austin Warren 

Just a quick article here:

Yes, I want Tariq Skubal, too, but that is not the subject of this article.

Diversity of articles is our strength.

This is about the Mets 2026 bullpen. The Mets did pretty well in 2026 with regards to their bullpen, no matter how much complaining we may hear about it, and all the more stunning when you consider how many solid relievers they traded away at the trade deadline and which were replaced with unproven minor leaguers.

The Mets pen went 36–26, with a 3.76 ERA, and 5.3 Wins Above Replacement and a decent 31 of 49 in saves. The WAR stat was one of the top 10 in baseball. 

The Nationals and one other team both had bullpen war exceeding -3 in 2026. Had the Mets had a horrible bullpen like one of those teams, we certainly would’ve been screaming loudly and with full justification.

So, all in all, I think the Mets had a relatively successful bullpen in 2026. And, given the trades, and the injury to closer Devin Williams, I think the pen had a remarkably good year all in all. Add in that anticipated help from prospects Ryan Lambert and Dylan Ross in 2026 really never materialized, and even more impressive. David Stearns and Mets managers should get credit where credit is due here.

Not allowing inherited running runs to score is quite a talent. The Yankees had a guy named Brent Headrick, who inherited 54 runners and only allowed 8 to score. Darned impressive.

The Mets? I was having a little trouble finding the stats so I queried AI.

Austin Warren allowed one of 22 inherited runners to score. Nice!

Toby Meyers allowed four of their team to score, as did Jonathan Pintaro

Nate Lavender allowed three to score, all coming on one base is loaded hit. Otherwise he was sensational.

Daniel Duarte allowed three of 10 inherited score.

Jeffry Yan allowed 5 of 9 to score. We weren’t leaving for joy over that ratio

I do not know how many inherited runners Devin Williams had to try to prevent from scoring, but according to AI he only allowed one inherited runner to score.

Finally, Dedniel Nunez inherited two runners and neither scored, and according to AI, in his career, he has allowed only two of 18 inherited runners to score, which is pretty impressive.

I give the pen a B Grade for 2026.

HBP STATS

The Mets are often baseball piñata’s when it comes to having their hitters get hit by pitches. Not in 2026, though. 

The Mets, who almost always are leading the major leagues or are close to it in their hitters, getting nailed by pitches, came in 28th with just 50 HBP.

The Mets pitchers hit 79 opposing batters. Make of that disparity what you will.

Interestingly, the Chicago White Sox lead all of baseball in both batters being hit by pitches, and their pitchers hitting other teams’ batters. That must’ve been fun to watch.

OK, checking out here. Have a great day. But first….

MACK’S HALLOWEEN COSTUME PICTURED HERE IS VERY CONVINCING

I do hear Unsubstantiated rumors that Mack is going out trick-or-treating as Steve Cohen. 

Mack does realize that he will be paying a hefty luxury tax on the excessive amount of candy that he receives as a trick-or-treater. But Mack views it as a necessary cost of doing candy business.

I’m going out as John Candelaria, the Candyman. Because the Candyman can, and so can I.

Reese Kaplan -- A Pitcher Who Might Be Better Than Tarik Skubal

Let’s get the elephant out of the room first.  Tarik Skubal is a terrific and dominating pitcher who will command arguably the most expensive long term contract ever handed out to a pitcher in the long history of baseball.  He deserves it.  With multiple Cy Young Awards and youth on his side he’s going to cash in big time and deserves it.

Now pretend you are the Mets front office with a plan.  I know, I know...planning and the POBO don’t usually fit into the same sentence but for once let’s give Mr. Stearns the benefit of doubt that after finishing dead last in 2026 with baseball’s highest payroll he really does need to do something to change the course and fortunes of his employer.

Depending on who you believe Skubal is likely looking for somewhere in the $40-$50 million per year salary for anywhere between 6 and 10 years. At worst case you’re looking at a half a billion dollar pitcher.  Given what the Mets already have obligated to pay for 2027 and beyond it is highly unlikely they will want to be in that payroll stratosphere.  Given the sweep out of the postseason it is entirely possible he returns to the Dodgers on that kind of deal anyway. 

So if Skubal is off the table for reasons of financial prudence and his likely desire to want to go into a winning organization what then can Stearns do to help the Mets?  We’ve already covered the likelihood of mutual opt-out candidates in Michael King and Clay Holmes, both of whom not only have shown the ability to pitch effectively in New York but also combined would likely only exceed the cost for Skubal alone by a margin along the lines of a pair of Tylor Megills.  That’s a good way of spreading your risk while not bankrupting your team on a guy whose arm injury could cripple your growth for a year or more at a time.

Unfortunately rumors are already starting that while Holmes is likely indeed to try to cash in by exercising his opt out, reports are surfacing that the Mets are not interested.  Please tell all Mets fans that this leak is merely someone’s speculation and not grounded in reality.  No word on King has surfaced as of yet.

Another top tier hurler who could likely be had for the right trade price is Tampa Bay Rays’ ace prior to Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen.  For a guy whose career is in need of an adrenaline shot for his publicity, the fact he’s likely at the $20 million rate in his final year before free agency for the 2028 season suggests he might be the right fit here for a number of reasons. 

First, the fact is that the Rays routinely ship out players before they lose them to free agency to reinforce their roster depth.  Since they just lost the Series then that move is even more likely to occur.

Second, the former Brewers executive seems to have a legitimate obsession with not doing any creative thinking and instead relying on people he knew well from his time in the midwest.  Do the names Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Tobias Myers ring any bells for you? Well, many many not realize that the guy we associate with Tampa Bay actually began his minor league career with the Brewers in 2020. 

Now how good is the twice injured but currently healthy Rasmussen?  For his career (not just this past season but a span of over seven years) is just 2.83.  By contrast, Skubal owns a 3.02 over the same amount of seasons.  Huh???

This season for the Rays Rasmussen has a 16-6 record, a 2.67 ERA, a minuscule WHIP of 0.913 to lead the league, and struck out over 9 per 9 IP while walking well under 2.  It would appear he is indeed a reasonable alternative to the much more heralded Skubal and far less cost.

MACK - Mets Hire Deron Johhson as a 'Special Assignment Scout'

 

The Mets made a significant move on October 29^th, hiring super-scout, Deron Johnson as a ‘special assignment scout.

He first started in baseball as an undrafted player, out of St. Mary’s College. He signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates and played three minor-league seasons as an outfielder (1988–1990), posting a career .225/.291/.370 line in 113 games.⁠

He then served as an assistant coach/recruiting coordinator at the University of San Francisco (1992–1993) and also worked as a high school hitting coach.

Johnson joined the Minnesota Twins in January 1994 as a Northern California area scout. He advanced to West Coast supervisor (from 1998) and was promoted to scouting director in September 2007, a role he held through the 2016 season (overseeing nine amateur drafts). Notable first-round picks during his tenure as director included Aaron Hicks (2008), Byron Buxton (2012), Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon, and Tyler Jay.⁠

In December 2016 he moved to senior advisor of scouting, continuing to evaluate amateur, professional, international, and minor-league talent. He also worked as an advance scout for postseason series at times. The Twins parted ways with him in September 2026 after 32 years, eliminating the senior advisor position amid organizational changes.⁠

This new job with the Mets follows his departure from Minnesota and connects him with former Twins executive Derek Falvey’s orbit in New York.⁠ He is regarded as an experienced traditional talent evaluator with deep West Coast and amateur scouting roots.

MACK –

Is it a good move? Short answer is yes. Any addition of someone with this much experience will add to the draft brain trust.

Does me carry any weight under the Cohen/Stearns thumb? Short answer is, does anyone?

How successful was he in all those years with Minnesota? Short answer, not much. Johnson was with the Twins from 1994 to 2026. They never won the World Series once while he was with them (note… they won in 1991, 1987, and 1924 when they were the Washington Senators (Ray was their bat boy).

Still, it’s a good move.

Reese Kaplan -- Restructuring the Cellar Dwellers Starts Next Week

Word has filtered out that even hitting coach prospects for the Mets want nothing to do with the cellar dwellars in Queens.  Retread Kevin Long opted out of consideration as did Cubs assistant hitting coach John Mallee.  The story being spun on Long was that it was mutual but the fact is that when team coaching personnel have no burning desire to work for the Cohen/Stearns structured environment then at some point people need to ask the obvious question, “Why not?”

Going into the 2027 season is challenging on a number of fronts.  First, no one knows how long the season will be with a lockout over the CBA negotiations being written in Sharpie on everyone’s baseball analysis paperwork.  As a result, the jobs needing to be filled won’t show dividend until baseball actually begins. 

The next set of questions that arise concern the players currently on the roster not exactly earning their keep.  Some are easy to identify like Marcus Semien, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and Jorge Polanco who are all being paid quite handsomely to produce numbers more reminiscent of replacement players than ones deserving 8 figure annual paychecks.

Then there are the younger but still unestablished players who are young enough to remain in baseball but who do not necessarily have anything more to show the Mets.  This list would include Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and injury-plagued Ronny Mauricio.  Of this trio you could make the positional versatility argument for Baty or extend the “He’s never had a real starting player opportunity” argument for Mauricio.  Vientos has pretty much shot himself in the foot as he can’t run, can’t field and hasn’t hit enough even to assign him as a DH.  A new hitting coach isn’t likely going to convert these guys from wannabes to wunderkinds. 

The pitching staff is almost as much a mess as is the offense.  Assume for the moment that the starting rotation would include Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton.  After that it gets much less appealing with possibilities including Manaea, Senga, recovering Tylor Megill, unestablished Jonah Tong and disappointing Tobias Myers.  Yeah, it would appear some outside help is indeed needed.

The bullpen is almost as difficult to feel confident in its potential.  Closer Devin Williams is coming off his second straight disappointing season in New York between both clubs.  Then come the 2026 newcomers to the club like Nate Lavender, Daniel Duarte, Jonathan Pintaro, Austin Warren, Chayce McDermott, Jefry Yan and Cionel Perez, as well as more familiar faces like Dedniel Nunez and Justin Hagenman.  There’s the great Senga question given his much more impressive bullpen numbers than his starting shriek fest.  The club very much misses solid arms like Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazoban.  

With the World Series ending this week it is shortly going to be time to see who posts for free agency by opting out of contracts or whose employers simply let them walk away.  The front office should be looking for bats and arms in almost equal number.   

MACK - Chain Position Analysis - Outfield

 

OUTFIELD

 

I’m not breaking this down to right field, center, and left. Everybody at these levels has then ability to play all three positions and many did this past season. As in the past, all three positions will be rated under the “outfield” umbrella.

 

Also, as for the current Mets outfield of Juan Soto, Carson Benge, AJ Ewing, and Nick Morabito, for simplicity reasons, I have loped them into a 4-headed monster.

 

RED PROSPECT

 

MLB/Mets – Juan Soto/Carson Benge/AJ Ewing/Nick Morabito –

For the purposes of saving words here, the four above mentioned Mets outfielders are now a four-headed monster that should be playing together into the next decade. There is a chance that Soto moves to either first base, or becomes a designated hitter. This would make room for one of the two RED prospects that just finished up in Brooklyn. As for the OF5 position, my hopes is Chris Suero turns into this while holding down another position as his primary job. Either way, these four mainstays may turn out to be the most talented outfield foursome in the league.

 

A+/Brooklyn – Aiden Robbins – (21) – RHH – LF/CF/RF – 3^rd. rd. 2026 - Remember this name. But is his defensive game up to replacing anyone currently in the lineup? Nicknamed “Baseball Jesus”, Robbins has only average speed ad an average arm, he really doesn’t lineup as a future Mets centerfielder. What he does have on his side is that he is considered an athlete’s athlete, with excellent instincts that trump the lack of God given talents. Still, I see Robbins as a bat-first corner outfielder that could push Soto to first. I do want to see a little more pop, but a good start to his pro-career: A/A+: 96-AB, 27-K, 5-HR, 18-RBI, 14-BB, .281/.378/.458/.837. I loved this guy at Texas… 24-HR/.333. Trust me. He’s only 21. This is a 25-HR/75-RBI/.275 waiting to happen.

 

A+/Brooklyn – Trey Snyder – (21) – RHH – CF/SS/2B/3B – 5^th rd. 2024 – boy, was this a pleasant surprise this past season. First… love the positional flexibility. Off the bat, he lines up for a future utility position. Bat wise, in 2026, hit over .30o for the FCL Mets (.333), and St. Lucie (.306), then came back to earth for bat-unfriendly Brooklyn (.264). Overall, over three levels: 291-AB, 72-K, 27-BB, 28-SB, 4-HR, 53-RBI, .289/.348/.388/.736. Defensively, he is still learning centerfield, though he only had one outfield error for the entire season (26 infield errors over two seasons). I expect him to be the Binghamton centerfielder next season.

 

A+/Brooklyn – Aidan Smith – (22) – RHH – CF/RF/LF – 4^th rd. 2023 – Smith was just an average under-preforming minor league outfielder until he was traded to the Mets and then shipped out to the bat unfriendly stadium in Coney Island. So, what does he do? -   84-AB, 5-HR, .321/.414/.524/.938. Go figure, right? Primarily a centerfielder. Known for speed, strong defense, and power arm. Has to work on his strikeout rate. Look for him in the AA/Binghamton centerfield slot next opening day. How he improves on his batting skills will determine any chance he has of moving Ewing someday.

 

BLUE PROSPECT

 

AAA/Syracuse – D’Andre Smith – (25) – RHH – also plays 2B and SS – 5^th rd. 2022 – primarily is in left when he plays in the outfield. Played five levels in 2026, including a cup of coffee for the Mets (2-5, .400). .250 overall minor league BA in 244-AB, but really exploded at the end of the season for AAA/Syracuse (109-AB, 6-HR, .294). Problem was around a 50% K/AB% at this level (59-K). For this reason, I look at what he did here last season as an aberration. You aren’t going to move Juan Soto out of left striking out half the time. A lot has to change in to even consider him in a utility role.

 

AA/Binghamton – John Bay – (25) – RHH – CF/RF/LF – 2025 UDFA – had power-filled college career at Austin Peay (2025 – 22-HR, 66-RBI, .360/.507/.769/1.276), which is why it was a mystery he wasn’t drafted. Off to slow start last season in A+/Brooklyn (.232), but did have a halfway decent season after being promoted to AA/Binghamton (131-AB, 48-K, 3-HR, 17-RBI, 11-SB, 20-BB, .252/.363/.366/.729). Has shown solid power and plate discipline, plus good walk rates and HBP totals. I have him as a future utility outfield candidate (at best).

 

A/St. Lucie – John Smith III – (22) – RHH – RF/CF/LF – 19^th rd. 2026 – hit .322 as a draft eligible sophomore in 2026. A steal as a 19^th round pick. Combined A/St. Lucie & A+/Brooklyn: 59-AB, 11-K, 3-HR, 10-RB1, 4-SB, 4-BB, .305/.373/.542/.916. Went crazy during his 18 at-bats in pitcher friendly Brooklyn: .444/.545/.722/.1.268. It will be interesting to see what he does in the off-season and where the Mets start him off in the spring. Raw power, excellent bat speed, and above-average speed. All the stars in Brooklyn will move on, so there three starting outfield slots will probably be filled by Snyder, Smith, and Robbins. I guess ‘John-John’ returns to Brooklyn.

 

A/St. Lucie – Bohan Adderley – (19) – RHH – CF/SS/3B – IFA 2024 – hit .270 for the FCL Mets last season… then was promoted to St. Lucie (45-AB) and hit .311. Born in Nassau, Bahamas. Known for top-rated speed and stolen base ability (83 minor league stolen bases in 162 games). Now primarily plays in the outfield, mostly in center. Adderley is all futures but off to a great start. I expect him to return to St. Lucie for opening day 2027.

 

RK/DSL – Cleiner Ramirez – (17) – RHH – CF/DH/SS - $1.37mil signing bonus on 1-15-2026. Played 2026 exclusively for the Mets DSL-Orange team: 145-AB, 27-K, 18-SB, 18-BB, 7-HR, 22-RBI, .241/.357/.462/.819. Was the second top international signee in 2026, behind Wandy Asigen. Didn’t have the best year, but didn’t suck either. Let’s remember he was 17. 2027? May be left behind to mature, but I would play him there until the FCL season starts, then bring him over. Huge power potential here.

 

RK/DSL – Henry Manrique – (17) – RHH – LF/RF/CF – a mere pub. Has shown strong early plate discipline and contact. 2026 – DSL-Mets Blue: 152-AB, 34-K, 1-HR, 21-RBI, 11-SB, 40-BB, .296/.443/.428/.871. Has 220 plate appearances under his belt, so there is a chance he will ship out to Florida. But I expect him to remain in the DR for the beginning of the 2027 season.

 

ALMOST PROSPECT

 A+/Brooklyn – Heriberto Rincon – (20) – RHH – CF/RF/LF – primarily a centerfielder - IFA 1-15-2023 $150K bonus – excellent speed… high SB ability for his age. At this point, known as a glove-first outfielder. 2026: RK/A/A+ - 157-AB, 43-K, 4-HR, 24-RBI, 17-SB, 4-BB, .248/.281/.344/.625. Most of his 2026 games were played for the FCL Mets and then strangely, he played more for Brooklyn than St. Lucie. Could wind up at either on opening day.

 

MACK SPIN – It’s pretty easy to rate a position when you have four RED rated players already playing for your parent team. And, in two years, there are three more that may make finding a designated hitter possible. The Mets have a lot of positions that need to deal with… this is not one of them.

 

RATING – A+

MACK - Bo Bichette Remains A Met

 

Remember earlier today I mentioned in a column that the talent in the free agent class being released was weak and the Mets were going to have to look to trade for their next slab of prime red meat?

Well, I was wrong.

The meat arrived around an hour ago when third baseman Bo Bichette decided to opt IN for $42 big ones in 2027 and remain the New York Mets third baseman.

I'm being told he also intends on opting in for 2028.

This changes everything for prospects and gives the Mets the option needed to package together a couple of them to grade up on another position.

Great night to be a Mets fan.

MACK – Let’s Revisit - SS - Elian Pena

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - SS - Elian Pena

Elian Peña (also spelled Elian Pena) is a top New York Mets prospect, a left-handed hitting shortstop/infielder from Azua, Dominican Republic (born October 19, 2007).

milb.com

The Mets signed him on January 15, 2025, for a franchise-record $5 million bonus as an international free agent—the largest for any Latin American player in that class and roughly 80% of their bonus pool. He was widely viewed as one of the top position players available (often ranked second or third overall behind Roki Sasaki).

nytimes.com

Background and Tools

• Listed around 5'10"–5'11", 170–192 lbs; bats left, throws right.
• Advanced plate discipline, contact skills, and power potential for his age (scouts have compared the offensive profile to players like Rafael Devers or José Ramírez-style hitters).
• Plays primarily shortstop; some project a possible future move to second or third base. Strong makeup, baseball IQ, and work ethic are frequently praised.
  baseballamerica.com

Performance

• 2025 (DSL Mets Orange, age 17): Overcame an 0-for-26 start to hit .292/.421/.528 (.949 OPS) with 9 HR, 13 doubles, 21 SB (in 25 attempts), and equal walks/strikeouts (36 each) in 55 games. He had two three-homer games and earned DSL Prospect of the Year honors.
  amazinavenue.com
• 2026 (age 18): Assigned aggressively to Low-A St. Lucie (skipping the complex league). He performed well enough for a mid-August promotion to High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. 
  milb.com
• 2026/A+ Brooklyn - 67-AB, 0-HR, 6-RBI, .164

He ranks highly in Mets prospect lists (often top 10–15 system-wide, with some mid-season views placing him higher) a

nd is seen as a potential future impact big-leaguer, though still years away (ETA around 2029–2030). 

As of late August 2026, he is with the Brooklyn Cyclones (High-A).

2026/A+ Brooklyn:

RVH - Building a Sustainable Winner — Part 2: How Milwaukee Keeps Replenishing

 

In Part 1, we examined the quality, depth and cost of Milwaukee’s roster. The striking finding was how much production the Brewers received from an inexpensive group of core players.

That raises the next question: How do they keep finding those players?

A productive, affordable roster can create a competitive window. Keeping that window open requires another group to arrive as established players become more expensive, get injured or move elsewhere.

Milwaukee’s roster offers a useful look at that process. It also gives Mets fans a framework for evaluating what David Stearns is trying to build in New York.

Several years of decisions coming together

Consider four members of the Brewers’ current core:

Player	How Milwaukee acquired him	Acquisition year
Brice Turang	First-round draft pick	2018
Garrett Mitchell	First-round draft pick	2020
Jackson Chourio	International amateur signing	2021
Jacob Misiorowski	Second-round draft pick	2022

These acquisitions span five years and two different entry routes into professional baseball. Their eventual overlap on the major league roster illustrates why organizational development requires patience. (fangraphs.com)

The scouting decision starts the process. Coaching, health, adjustments, playing opportunities and roster decisions determine how much value eventually reaches Milwaukee.

We should be careful about assigning all that credit to the executive who authorized the original acquisition. Identifying a player and helping him become a productive major leaguer are related accomplishments, with different people often contributing along the way.

That distinction will matter when we examine Stearns’ Milwaukee legacy.

A trade can keep producing value through another trade

Some of Milwaukee’s most instructive moves are connected.

The Josh Hader return included Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz. (mlb.com) Milwaukee subsequently traded Ruiz in the deal that brought William Contreras and two pitchers. (mlb.com)

That sequence illustrates why evaluating a transaction only by the players who remain from its original return can miss part of the outcome.

An acquired player can contribute directly. He can also become the means of acquiring someone who better fits the roster.

There is a cost, of course. Trading an established player removes production and creates uncertainty immediately. A later payoff does not erase that earlier risk. A fair evaluation needs to consider both periods.

The Corbin Burnes trade offers another example: Milwaukee received Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and a draft pick. (mlb.com)

The broader roster-building idea is to distribute the return across multiple opportunities and additional seasons of control. Whether that exchange succeeds depends on what those opportunities actually produce.

For our series, the relevant question is whether these decisions sustain the quality of the entire roster over several years.

Finding value after another organization moves on

Milwaukee also acquires players who have already spent time elsewhere.

Jake Bauers arrived from the Yankees in November 2023. Trevor Megill came from Minnesota earlier that year. Both became useful contributors in our current roster analysis. (fangraphs.com)

These moves require a different judgment from drafting a teenager. The organization must identify something it believes can translate into greater production: a skill, a role, an adjustment or simply an opportunity.

We cannot establish the precise cause of every improvement from a depth chart. Better results after a trade do not, by themselves, prove that coaching caused the improvement.

But these players demonstrate why an acquisition strategy should extend beyond established stars and highly ranked prospects.

The failures belong in the accounting, too. Our payroll review included Lance McCullers Jr., whose Milwaukee stint ended in a release. That is a reminder that acquiring experience does not guarantee useful innings.

And a successful season from a player such as Bauers creates another decision: How much of that performance should the club expect to repeat, and at what price?

The original bargain and the next contract are separate evaluations.

Keeping selected players is part of the approach

Replenishment also involves deciding whom to retain.

Before his major league debut, Chourio signed an eight-year, $82 million contract with two additional club options. (mlb.com)

The logic is straightforward. The player receives substantial financial security before proving himself in the majors. The club accepts that early risk in exchange for predictable costs and the opportunity to retain more of his productive years.

That agreement can become extremely favorable when the player develops as hoped. It can also become expensive if he does not.

For Milwaukee, the important principle is selective commitment. A sustainable roster still needs players worth building around, and keeping those players can be as consequential as identifying their eventual replacements.

The next group is already taking shape

Our October prospect snapshot provides another part of the picture.

Jesús Made and Luis Peña lead the list. Other prominent prospects include Brady Ebel, Tyson Hardin and Jeferson Quero. The acquisition routes extend beyond premium draft selections: Hardin was a 12th-round pick, while Bishop Letson was selected in the 11th round.

That variety matters. An organization needs opportunities to find talent throughout the draft and internationally.

The 2026 draft class is also already represented in the top 30 used for this series:

Player	2026 selection	Rank in our October snapshot
Trey Ebel	First round, No. 25 overall	17
Sawyer Strosnider	Second round, No. 66 overall	18
Julian Garcia	Fourth round	24

Rankings are from our saved FanGraphs prospect snapshot; draft selections are confirmed by MLB reporting. (mlb.com, mlb.com)

These players are already included in that inventory. We should not count the draft class again as an additional layer of talent.

Nor should we treat three rankings as three future major league contributors. Their presence adds possibilities. Development will determine how many become useful players, when they arrive and whether their greatest value comes in Milwaukee or in a trade.

For the same reason, an estimated arrival date should never become a roster promise. A team still needs alternatives when a prospect’s timetable changes.

What should the Mets take from this?

The most useful lesson for New York is the value of having choices.

A productive farm system can supply inexpensive contributors, support trades and make injuries easier to absorb. It can also allow the front office to be more selective about which needs require a major financial commitment.

Steve Cohen’s resources create additional possibilities. The Mets can seek the same benefits from scouting and development while having greater capacity to retain successful players and supplement the roster.

That combination is the opportunity we should evaluate throughout this series.

Milwaukee’s current roster suggests several connected strengths: acquisitions spread across multiple years, development that turns some of those players into contributors, trades that create further options, and selective commitments to players the organization wants to keep.

Those strengths still have to produce wins. Prospect rankings and favorable contracts are useful evidence, but sustained major league performance remains the test.

The next installment turns to the attribution question: How much of Milwaukee’s current position traces to David Stearns, and how much reflects what Matt Arnold and the organization built afterward?

We will separate the players Stearns acquired, the assets his successors inherited and the decisions made after his tenure. That should give us a more useful comparison with his work in New York.