MACK - Five Hottest Bats In The Chain

 

John From Albany sent me this list of the five hottest bats during the period of 6/5-6/14. 

I will post updates to additional hottest bats throughout the season and a summary about each player.

The first five are:

 

1.       Emerson Estevez/DSL - .348/.400/.783/1.183

 

Emerson Ramses Estevez is a 17-year-old (born October 5, 2008) right-handed hitting and throwing outfielder in the New York Mets organization. He was signed as an international free agent from Santiago, Dominican Republic, on January 15, 2026, for a modest $25,000 bonus.

Height/Weight: 6'0", 192 lbs.

Position: Outfielder (OF).

Bats/Throws: R/R.

He has gotten off to a strong start in his pro debut with DSL Mets Blue:

Outlook - As a low-bonus DSL signee, Estevez is a long-term developmental prospect without a high public profile yet. His early power and production in the DSL are encouraging signs for a 17-year-old, but it is very early in his career.

 

2.       Aiberson Blanco/DSL - .364/.417/.727/1.144

 

Aiberson Jose Blanco is a switch-hitting outfielder (S/R) in the New York Mets' minor league system, currently playing in the Dominican Summer League (DSL).

Born: February 12, 2008 (age 18) in Maracay, Venezuela

Height/Weight: 5'11" / 157 lbs

Bats/Throws: Switch / Right

Position: Outfielder (primarily CF, also LF/RF)

Signed: International free agent by the Mets on January 15, 2025 (UDFA)

He debuted in the DSL in 2025

Limited experience, showing patience at the plate (solid walk rate) but contact and strikeout issues typical for a young DSL player. He has some speed and has played all three outfield spots, with decent defensive metrics in limited innings.

Blanco is a raw, toolsy international signee in the very early stages of his development. At 5'11"/157 lbs, he's still filling out. His switch-hitting ability and outfield versatility are positives, and he shows plate discipline for his age. Like most DSL prospects, he's a long-term project with no established prospect ranking yet.

 

3.       Ji Hwan Bae/Syracuse - .385/.467/.654/1.121

 

Ji Hwan Bae (also spelled Jihwan Bae) is a 26-year-old South Korean professional baseball player (born July 26, 1999, in Daegu, South Korea) who currently plays in the New York Mets organization, primarily as a center fielder and second baseman.

Bae was a standout amateur in South Korea, winning the Lee Young-min Batting Award as the top high school hitter. He initially agreed to a deal with the Atlanta Braves in 2017, but it was voided, making him a free agent. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed him in March 2018 for a $1.25 million bonus.

MLB Career (with Pirates, 2022–2025) - He debuted in the majors on September 23, 2022, and played 163 games for Pittsburgh through 2025. His career MLB stats are modest:

Batting: .223 AVG, .294 OBP, .293 SLG, .586 OPS (62 OPS+)

Key numbers: 2 HR, 44 RBI, 37 SB, 43 BB, 131 SO in 514 AB

He showed speed and versatility (playing 2B, CF, and other outfield spots) but struggled with consistent hitting and strikeouts in the big leagues.

He had a strong 2022 debut in limited action (.333 AVG in 10 games) but regressed in subsequent years, including a poor 2025 (.050 AVG in 13 games).

The Pirates placed him on waivers in November 2025.

The Mets claimed him off waivers on November 6, 2025, viewing him as affordable center field/outfield depth with minor-league options and versatility.

In January 2026, the Mets outrighted him to Triple-A Syracuse (he cleared waivers and has options remaining).

Physical: 5'11", 185 lbs; Bats left, throws right.

Strengths: Speed (proven base-stealer), defensive versatility (middle infield and outfield), solid minor-league bat (.300+ AVG and good OBP in several seasons).

 

4.       Cleiner Ramirez/DSL - .348/.423/.696/1.119

 

Cleiner Jesius Ramirez is a 17-year-old right-handed hitting outfielder (born December 1, 2008, in Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela) in the New York Mets' system. He signed with the Mets as an international free agent on January 15, 2026, for $1,372,500 and was assigned to the DSL Mets Orange in late May 2026.

Height/Weight: 5'9" / 175 lbs (stocky, compact build with strength projection).

Bats/Throws: R/R.

He's described as a "quarter-stick of dynamite" with standout bat speed, explosive lower-half strength, and good leverage for his size. He's an above-average runner (around 50 grade) with athleticism that could allow versatility (primarily outfield but some infield background).

Scouts praise his balanced skill set, repeatable swing, and advanced plate discipline for his age. He uses his shorter stature to generate good bat speed and barrel control. His power is still developing but shows carry and projection (raw power around 45). Pre-signing, he hit .419 with strong on-base numbers in the Caracas Prospect League.

FanGraphs (2026 preseason) gives him a 35+ FV (Future Value), ranking him around #40 in the Mets' system.

Tool grades (present/future):

Hit: 20/50

Raw Power: 45/45

Game Power: 20/45

Run: 50/50

Fielding: 30/45

Throw: 45

Evaluators have compared his projected build and style to Kirby Puckett and he's been likened to fellow Venezuelan Luisangel Acuña for his upside and skill set.

He was ranked as the #23 international prospect in the 2026 class. The Mets used bonus pool space (partly due to other signings like Wandy Asigen) to land him. He's a high-upside lottery ticket typical of well-regarded Venezuelan signings — lots of bat speed and athleticism, with development needed on defense, strength, and consistency.

 

5.       Nick Lorusso/Binghamton - .348/.400/.696/1.096

 

Nick Lorusso (full name: Nicholas Dante Lorusso) is a right-handed hitting and throwing infielder in the New York Mets minor league system.

Born: September 11, 2000 (age 25) in Carmel, NY; hometown Monroe, CT.

Height/Weight: 6-1, 215 lbs.

Positions: Primarily third base, with time at first base and some second base.

Draft: Selected by the Mets in the 9th round (276th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft out of the University of Maryland; signed for $50,000.

Lorusso started at Villanova (2019–2021), where he was named Big East Freshman of the Year in 2019. He transferred to Maryland and had a standout senior season in 2023:

Hit .379/.446/.765 with 26 HR and a nation-leading 105 RBI (most in Division I since 2003).

Earned consensus All-American honors.

2023 (Single-A St. Lucie): .169/.250/.270 in 26 games (tough pro debut adjustment).

2024: Stronger showing — .262/.367/.462 with 12 HR and 44 RBI in 78 games (mostly High-A Brooklyn; brief AA stint). Named SAL Player of the Week in May 2024. Missed some time with injury.

2025 (Double-A Binghamton): .241/.312/.368 with 7 HR, 56 RBI, and 29 doubles in 112 games.

2026 (Double-A Binghamton, partial season): Around .218 with double-digit home runs and solid power production in limited action.

Career Minors (through ~2026): Roughly .234–.241 AVG, with power (20+ HR) and decent plate discipline, though strikeouts can be an issue. He's shown versatility across the infield.

Lorusso is a bat-first prospect with good raw power and production in college that has started translating to pro ball, especially in 2024. He's not typically ranked among the Mets' very top prospects but has flown somewhat under the radar as a solid organizational depth piece/corner infielder.

Steve Sica - What The Mets Can Learn From The Knicks

Watching the Knicks finally win an NBA title for the first time in 53 years was a surreal feeling on Saturday night. I've been a Knicks fan for just a little less than I've been a Mets fan, and out of all the teams I rooted for growing up, a Knicks title seemed like the most distant one of them all.

That's because for the better part of the last century, the Knicks had been a punching bag for the league and a punch line for late-night talk show hosts. They had a three-year run with Carmelo Anthony, but never made it past the second round, and then it was back into the abyss. 

But the Knicks slowly began building the blocks of a championship four years ago when they got Jalen Brunson and built around him. It wasn't quick. They lost in the semifinals in 2023 and 2024, and lost in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2025. They climbed the mountain in 2026 and won what was probably the most impactful championship in New York sports history.

With the Knicks' win, the Mets now move into the third-longest drought in New York sports without a championship, behind the Jets and Islanders. The Mets could learn a thing or two from their fellow orange and blue squad.

The unique thing about the Knicks' title is that it wasn't built through the draft, tanking, or assembling a super team. They just made smart trades and signings, plugging holes as needed and building a team that really gelled together and performed where it counted. This is something that the Mets have been lacking in the 2020's. 

2024 was the lone exception, but every other year, even the years the Mets were good, the team didn't all seem to be pulling the rope in one direction. Steve Cohen has tried to buy a great roster, and in some ways, he has. Names like Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Francisco Lindor dot the lineup in 2026, but the team remains under .500. You can't say that spending large amounts of money doesn't lead to success. The Dodgers are back-to-back World Series champions. The Yankees are in the postseason seemingly every season. The Phillies have had a run of success in the last five years, too, with a couple of division titles and an NL pennant. All these teams spend around what the Mets do, and all have more to show for it.

The issue isn't a lack of spending; it's spending money smartly and thinking about a long-term vision of what players fit in the right slots on the drive to a championship.

Perhaps the reason 2024 went so well was that that was ironically the only offseason in which Steve Cohen didn't make a big splash in free agency or on the trade market. The front office simply took a chance on some players and brought in fresh faces that remarkably got along very well and were easy and fun to root for. Sound familiar? 

As a Knicks fan, I'm elated that they're finally NBA champions. As a Mets fan, it made me realize how far off this team is from winning a World Series.

It didn't happen overnight for the Knicks. Once Brunson got there, it still took them nearly a half a decade of playoff disappointments before they finally broke through. The Mets have yet to win a championship or even have sustained playoff success like the Knicks, Rangers, and Yankees have at least had over the years.

Maybe Steve Cohen and James Dolan can get together this summer and words I never thought I'd say, but perhaps Dolan, who might be the best owner in this town, can give Cohen a little piece or two of advice on how to build a true champion.

Tom Brennan: A) BATY BOOMER? B) Mitch Voit a Met in 2027? C) Rudick is BACK

Mitch Voit (as a Collegian) was the Mets’ Top Pick in 2025 

BATY THE BOOMER?

Brett Baty had a good day on Sunday, with two hits and two walks, sneaking his season on base percentage slightly over .300.

But…Brett is baffling…

He’s averaging a HR only once in every 79 times to the plate this year.

Which is indeed puzzling, because this is what they said about him in early 2022 on SNY, when he was still a prospect:

SNY.TV also had Brett as their #2 Mets Prospect saying: "Baty is a pure hitter with plus raw power that has not been applied in-game at the level that is expected as of yet. He barrels the ball consistently gap to gap with high exit velocities. He has plus pitch recognition skills and the ability to sit back on off-speed pitches and hit them with authority. He has made some swing adjustments that should allow some more loft in his swing, and some of those 22 doubles he hit will turn into home runs."

Back to me: if you have plus raw power, what are you doing hitting a home run every 79 times up? I think there may be too many voices in Baty’s ears. Voices that telling him you have to make contact. Keep that OBP up. Hit line drives. 

But, power wise, this year, he’s turned into Bud Harrelson in a good power year for Buddy, who was NOT known for his power. Nine doubles, one triple on a misplayed ball, and three Homers in 237 Baty plate appearances.  That is the definition of a slap hitter.

My suggestion to Brett: 

There is a guy in Philadelphia named Kyle Schwarber who has Plus Raw power. He isn’t at all afraid to use it, he in fact loves to use it, and he isn’t afraid to strike out to be able to use it. 

I am not saying that you, Brett, should go out and try to hit 80 home runs over 225 games like Schwarber. But why not swing for the fences? 

So you strike out more… So What? Who cares? 

If your “raw power” could put up 35 homers a year, while striking out a higher 1.3 times per game, I don’t think anyone in fandom would be complaining. Well I have to correct that: there are always complainers.

But I, for one…

Would love to see you, Brett, turn it totally loose and swing for the fences. Get away from being a slap hitter and become the next Kyle Schwarber.

Well…at least Brett got the strikeout part down on Monday night, fanning 3 times in 4 hitless at bats. Now, work on the HR part.

OK, next topic:

So far, Mets’ minor leaguers have been bad at hitting this year.

So why would I think that legitimate help could come, by early next year, from a hitter, at - yes - a major league starting infield position?

This may sound crazy, but hear me out, please. I’m being serious.

Why not Mitch Voit, arriving in Queens around mid-May next year, as your starting 3rd baseman?

  - or at 2B or SS, or even starting games at all 3 positions.

My Reasons to Think This Would Work:

1) He was a top pick. Well, that is sometimes not a key indicator, but…

2) He hits solidly in High A away from the hellhole Cyclones Brooklyn park. 

    - Mitch is  a solid .255/.357/.408 on the road.

    - Brooklyn hitting stats should ALWAYS be ignored.

3) He is “AJ Ewing fast”. 39 steals in his first 67 pro games. BLUR!

4) He fans only once every 4.4 times up in 2026, in High A in his 1st full season.

5) Seven homers in his first 45 games of 2026 impresses me. 6’0”, 200.

6) Incredible defender. 

   - One error in 45 games at SS and 2B so far this year. WOW!

   - NO Mets prospect infielder I’ve ever followed has been that good.

7) June so far: A fine .300/.429/.450. AND: just 3 Ks in 44 June PAs.

MY PROPOSED GLIDE PATH: 

Promote to AA right after the ASB.

Promote to AAA in September.

Arizona Fall Ball after the regular season.

If he can stay healthy and do that, he will play 100 more games this year.

Fast forward to 2027, and give him 40 AAA games.

That would be 140 more games of valuable and necessary development time beyond this mid-June timeframe.

That might really be enough. 

Consider Benge and Ewing’s last 140 minor league games.

…they each grew a ton. It was enough for both of them.

Voit will then, IMO, be as ready as Benge and Ewing were when called up.

Consider the delays that we’ve seen in some other prospects that finally got promoted. Those slower ascents were due to player flaws.  

I’ll just refer to just two examples here.

Mark Vientos hit well in the minors, with power, but kind of struck out a lot. He also had zero speed, and lousy fielding.

Wilmer Flores hit awesomely in AAA, but he was a slug in terms of speed, and a sub par fielder. 

Mitch has two undeniable superior skills that those two did not:

1) Blazing speed.

2) Incredible fielder.

Those 2 superior skills mean that his bat can be less ready than theirs HAD TO BE, in order for them to be considered decent enough to be promoted.

What does that suggest to me?

Mitch as a Met in May 2026. 

You may think that is a little crazy.

But I bet that, in the middle of June last year, you would have thought it was crazy that Benge and Ewing would have a combined total of roughly 100 games of MLB time between them already in 2026 through mid-June.

But that turned out not to be crazy at all. It happened.

Raise your sights. Mitch is coming fast.

Matt Rudick

NEVER GIVE UP

Matt Rudick is now 27, short (5’6”), and had lots of injuries. 

His bat was brutally cold early this year.

Suddenly, though, he is HOT.

In AAA, he is 13 for his last 35, with 8 walks and just 5 Ks.

His season start was so bad that he is still hitting just .182, but I blame that on rust: 12 at bats all of last year (2025). 

He is cooking now. The good Rudick is back.

A few years ago, in 2023, he was arguably the best hitter in the entire Eastern league over the first 9 weeks of the season, before he got hurt.

His slash line on June 10 that season was a rip-roaring .311/.455/.539.

He wasn’t the same after his injury, which killed most of his season that year after mid-June, but still ended that season with a .407 OBP. 

So, there is hidden talent there. I wonder if he’ll ever get a call up? 

If so, he will need to continue his scorching last 2 weeks for quite a while.

FCL METS MAULED

Lost 15-1. 

Mets Starter Lanthier got mugged for 8 runs, but I am happy to report that he did record an out.

Best pitcher? An FCL Mets position player tossed a scoreless final inning.

OH ME, OH MY

Tobias “Oh Me, Oh Myers” got clocked by the Reds. 

The Mets hitters went heavy on the LOBs, but light on the RBIs.

12-0 loss. Fans got free pizza when Base Hit Machine Brujan (.091) was the 11th Mets K.

You analyze it further if you want. 

I have 2 observations:

1) Can’t win ‘em all. 

2) Can’t win enough.

MACK - 2029 Mets Rotation: The Next Wave

 

The next wave of Mets starters seems to be developing right now on the Brooklyn Cyclone roster. Everyone that reads Mack’s Mets needs to become familiar with these three. They could all be part of the 2029 Mets rotation someday.

 

Nicolas Carreno is a 20-year-old left-handed pitching prospect in the New York Mets organization (born June 9, 2006, in Barcelona, Venezuela). He stands 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs. The Mets acquired him from the Pittsburgh Pirates in July 2024 in exchange for LHP Josh Walker.

Signed by the Pirates in 2023 as an international free agent. Split time in the DSL in 2024 before the trade.

Progressed through the Mets system: DSL → FCL (2025) → Low-A St. Lucie (2025–2026) → High-A Brooklyn Cyclones (promoted June 2026).

Key 2026 stats (through mid-June, across A and A+):  2–1 record, 1.89 ERA in 12 games (7 starts), 47.2 IP. 

67 strikeouts (12.7 K/9), 23 walks (4.3 BB/9), low home runs allowed. 

WHIP around 1.05, strong strikeout-to-walk rate, and low batting average against (~.160–.250 range). He has shown significant improvement in command and consistency since his high-walk early DSL days. In 2026, he has posted career-high strikeout numbers and performed well in a recent High-A debut (e.g., 6 IP, 9 K in one start).

Pitch Repertoire

Carreno throws from the left side with a three-pitch mix (primarily), showing good stuff for his age and size. Data from 2025 and scouting notes highlight:

4-Seam Fastball (primary, ~50% usage): Sits in the low-to-mid 90s (up to 96–98 mph in 2026). Good ride/vertical movement.

Slider (secondary, high-usage ~38%): His best pitch — hard (84–90 mph, up to low 90s), with strong whiff rates (e.g., 58%+ in samples; one report noted 43.8% whiff). Can be short or sweepy depending on grip/release. High spin and effectiveness against both sides.

Sinker (occasional, ~10–12%): Mid-90s velocity, used for ground balls or movement variation.

Some scouting/projection systems mention potential for a curveball or changeup (with future grades in the 30–50 range), but his current game mix centers on fastball/slider/sinker. He has solid extension and generates swings-and-misses, especially with the slider.

Profile summary: Carreno is a high-upside lefty starter prospect with strikeout stuff and improving command. At 20, he's still developing (especially control and secondary pitches), but his 2026 performance in full-season ball is encouraging. He's viewed as a lottery-ticket type with starter potential if he refines his arsenal and consistency. Keep an eye on his progress with Brooklyn in High-A.

 

José Chirinos is a 21-year-old right-handed pitching prospect (born October 16, 2004) in the New York Mets organization.

The Mets signed him as an international free agent from Venezuela in 2022. He stands 6'3" and 170 lbs with a lanky frame and a low three-quarters arm slot.

Chirinos has shown steady progress, especially in 2025–2026:2026 (St. Lucie, A): Strong results with a low-2s ERA, good strikeout numbers, and improved control (e.g., around 2.36–2.52 ERA in recent samples, ~10+ K/9, low WHIP ~1.05).

2025: Solid full-season debut in A-ball (3.20 ERA over 56+ IP) with better strike-throwing.

Earlier years (DSL/FCL) featured higher walk rates and inconsistency but promising strikeout stuff.

He projects as a starter with a chance to develop into a back-end rotation piece if command improves further.

Pitch Repertoire

Chirinos features a multi-pitch mix (typically 5–6 offerings), with data from 2025–2026 showing:

Sinker/Two-Seam Fastball (primary, ~25–50% usage): Averages ~92–93 mph (up to 94–95). It has decent velocity but average movement/spin; used more as a setup pitch for command and tunneling rather than a primary whiff pitch.

Slider (key secondary, ~15–20%+): His best swing-and-miss pitch. Sits high-70s to low-80s with slurvy shape, good horizontal sweep, and vertical break. High whiff rates (often 35–40%+ in samples).

Changeup (~20%): Mid-80s (wider velocity band, high-70s to high-80s). Arm-side fade; more effective at the lower end of the velo range. Decent whiff potential.

Cutter (~15–25%): Mid-to-high 80s. Limited movement on its own but helps tunnel with the fastball/slider. Often his least effective pitch by itself.

Four-Seamer and Curveball (occasional): Four-seam ~92–93 mph; curve in the high-70s with vertical shape. Used less frequently.

tjStuff+ metrics rate most of his pitches around average to slightly above (98–100+ range overall), with the slider and fastball variations showing promise.

Scouting Notes / Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths: Good feel for mixing pitches, solid strikeout ability (especially slider), improving command in recent seasons, and a projectable frame for velocity/stamina gains. He tunnels pitches well.

Areas to Improve: Fastball lacks elite movement at times; cutter can be hittable; overall command and consistency (walk rates have fluctuated). Needs to tighten secondaries as he climbs levels.

He's a developmental arm with upside—watch for continued polish in High-A and beyond. Stats and pitch data can vary by game, but the sinker-slider-changeup core defines him right now. For the latest, check MiLB.com or Baseball Savant game logs.

 

Daviel Hurtado is a left-handed pitching prospect in the New York Mets organization. Born January 26, 2005, in Havana, Cuba, he is 21 years old (as of mid-2026), listed at 6'1" and 166 lbs, and throws from a three-quarters arm slot. The Mets signed him as an international free agent in January 2023.

Hurtado missed 2023 with injury. His pro debut came in 2024 with the FCL Mets (Rookie ball), where he struggled with command and results (0-5, 6.32 ERA in 8 starts). He showed strong strikeout stuff (13.2 K/9) but walked too many.

In 2025, he improved dramatically: Strong showing in the FCL (1-0, 0.47 ERA in 5 starts).

Moved up to Single-A St. Lucie (0-2, 2.70 ERA in 13 games/7 starts).

Overall: 1-2, 2.06 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 65.2 IP.

In 2026, he has split time between Single-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. He has posted strong results overall in limited action (including a 0.50 ERA at High-A) with excellent command and strikeouts, though he dealt with a brief IL stint. He was also selected for Cuba's roster for the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

Key strengths: High strikeout rates (often 10+ K/9), improving command and control, and a solid strike-throwing ability. He has shown the ability to miss bats while limiting hard contact when everything is working.

Pitch Repertoire

Hurtado features a multi-pitch mix typical for a young lefty starter, with a fastball that plays up due to velocity and movement.

Fastball (primary pitch, ~50% usage): Sits low-to-mid 90s (90-94 mph), topping out at 96 mph. It has good induced vertical break (around 15 inches, averaging ~2,200 RPM). It's thrown with a slingy arm action from a three-quarters slot. Command is generally solid in the zone, though hitters can square it up when they make contact.

Curveball (~30% usage): Big, loopy "lollipop" pitch in the high-70s to low-80s. It has massive vertical break (around 50+ inches). Primarily used as a chase pitch outside the zone to generate swings-and-misses or weak contact/ground balls. It tunnels differently from his fastball.

Slider (~15% usage): "Slurvy" breaking ball in the mid-to-high 80s. Similar shape to the curve but tighter/harder with good horizontal movement. It has been effective for strikeouts and swing-and-miss.

Changeup (occasional): Used sparingly but shows promise as a third offspeed option with fade/separation from the fastball. It could become a more significant part of his mix for better tunneling and vs. opposite-handed hitters.

His breaking balls are generally thrown for chases rather than strikes, complementing a fastball that he can locate reasonably well. The arsenal gives him good potential as a starter, though consistency, durability, and further refinement (especially the changeup and overall command) will determine how high he climbs.

 

 

 

 

Cautious Optimist: Three options for approaching the remainder of the season

 

Having made clear their intention to let matters play out for as long as possible before settling on a strategy for the remainder of the season -- thereby  giving the team every chance to get themselves back in the playoff race -- the FO appears to have settled on an intermediary strategy: one that applies until it doesn't.  It's the strategy the FO will adopt when the shelf life on this one expires that really matters. 

There are three possible outcomes over the next few weeks that would trigger settling on a final strategy for the remainder of the season.

1. The team makes it clear by its play that no additional time is required to determine that they have no reasonable chance of making the playoffs.  Maybe some chance, but not one a fan could bet on or feel somewhat confident of materializing. 

 2.  Over the period of time, the team could make it clear that they have in fact a reasonable chance of advancing to the playoffs.  

3. The team's play on the field does not settle the matter.  Whether more games and a larger sample size would settle the matter is no longer relevant.  The team can't wait and must decide what to do.  Time has forced their hand. It's time to settle on a 'remainder of the year strategy.'

When that time comes, what options do they have and what would executing on those options look like. 

 Three possible strategies

When the time finally comes to decide on a strategy for the remainder of the season, the FO will be faced with choosing among three basic options.

1. Standing pat.

2. Shifting resources to the future.

3. Moving their chips to the center of the table.  

Part of what I find interesting about these options is that they don't necessarily line up with what the FO learns over the next couple of weeks about the team's prospects for making the playoffs this year.  Whatever happens between now and then, only one strategy makes sense to me. 

Option 1.  Standing Pat -- the Minimalist Strategy

Standing pat does not mean doing nothing.  By my lights, standing pat is consistent with the Mets trading players they have determined are not part of their future: for example, Vientos, Baty, Peterson and Senga for example.  

In the best case, adopting this strategy may bring back prospects while providing the FO with more information about what it has in the majors without rushing minor leaguers into major league roles they are not ready for.  It also provides the FO with information about its minor leaguers, and more importantly about what the organization is doing well and poorly in its developmental programs. A fire sale would throw the team into short term chaos, lead to players being promoted to the majors prematurely, and cascade throughout the minors in ways that would reduce the FO's ability to gather useful information about player performance at all levels.

The goal is to stabilize, inform and set the team up for serious work in the offseason.  

Some might say that what I am calling a strategy of standing pat is really just a strategy of selling.  I disagree. If you have decided to sell what you can, you trade Peterson, Manaea, Peralta and maybe Holmes as well as Senga.  A full scale sale is designed not to stabilize and inform.  It is designed to shift resources to the future by obtaining prospects, clearing salary and dead weight to the extent possible.  It is the strategy one follows if one has decided to start afresh.

Option 2.  Shifting resources to the future

In principle the strategy of shifting resources to the future implies that all assets under team control should be available for trade. In fact, however, this is not feasible, as surely some of the assets who could bring back prospects capable of brightening the future would be involved in large deals, involving many players, and require resolving a variety of issues that arise from the structure of current contracts.  The deadline is not conducive to completing these kinds of trades.  

Adopting this strategy would surely mean adding Manaea and Peralta to the list of available players.  So too Alvarez and Mauricio. Maybe Taylor as well as Semien, and a bunch of players who have spent time this year in the minors as well as on the major league squad, including Bruhan, Melendez and Senger among others.

The primary goal of trading is to accumulate talent.  Peralta should bring talent back, not what was sent to get him, but not much less.  How much Manaea brings will depend on what gets thrown in with him in the trade and how much of his salary Cohen is willing to take on.  We are not talking about receiving a boatload of talent in these trades, and that is one reason why we might want to wait until the offseason to evaluate our options.  Right now, Mauricio and Taylor are worth more to the Mets than they could fetch on their own in trades.

Alvarez is different.  He is likely to be overvalued by many teams, just as he has been by the Mets.  I'd make him available just to get a sense of  how other teams value him. If his trade value is not what the FO would hope it to be, I would withdraw him and the day after the season ends,  I would send him to a movement performance coach, not a baseball hitting instructor who would at best be a 'consumer' of what movement experts know and develop.  After that, you have to see if he has incorporated a movement pattern that will unleash his potential.  I would decide what to do with him thereafter but before ST.

I would be inclined to move Semien, but few teams are desperate for a second baseman at the trade deadline.  His contract may make him untradeable, whether at the deadline or during the offseason, but I would investigate the possibility in part because both Bae and Voit offer replacement value, the former in the short run, the latter in the longer term.  One would have to pay a considerable part of Semien's salary, but trading Semien may yield a higher level talented pitcher or outfielder a few years away -- if you eat salary and throw in a prospect as a sweetener. Again a trade that is more likely to occur in the offseason, if at all.

I know many observers would like to see us trade Bichette.  The contract however gives him all the leverage.  The team most likely to pursue him should he opt out would be the Phillies who previously offered him 7 years for 200 million.  They can offer him fewer years for a bit less now since the Mets will have paid him 47 million by the end of this year.  If he continues to stay hot, the only trade that could be made would be with the Phillies, but they have no need to make a trade as they are the likely winning bidder in the sweepstakes for his services should he opt out.

There is a point to imagining trading everyone possible even when we know doing so is not feasible; and that has point has to do with securing an honest measure of how good or bad your team really is: not how good or bad you think it is.

When it comes to assessing the quality of your team, the best measure is what others are willing to give up to secure the player's services.  Take a look at this list of players the Mets would have every reason to look into trading.  What exactly are they capable of bringing back?  I know salary figures in this.  Lots of teams would want Senga for free.  I get it.  But imagine that players like him, Semien and Manaea were under reasonable contracts, and then ask, what would they fetch in return. 

And Baty and Vientos: players who were nearly untouchable in trade discussions last summer? What would they fetch now? Little more than a bag of fried, not even baked, donuts. 

The truth is that, as it stands, the Mets roster is far from competitive.  Every team will have a few players that are worth more to them than to nearly anyone else.  But the Mets are rostering a lot of players who have almost no market value.  So exactly how many prospects for the future will a fire sale produce?  

Not many and even fewer genuine prospects.

Option 3: The Maximalist option

I assume most Met fans hope that the team performs well enough to give the FO genuine reason to believe that the team can make the playoffs and perform well once there.  Mets fans then imagine the team making significant additions at that time.  

Doing so would be a mistake.  The entire strategy Stearns has put in place has been predicated on the belief that the team he put together in the offseason was good enough, on its own to make a significant run to and in the playoffs.  That is, the remainder of last year's team and the additions of Semien, Polanco, Peralta, Bichette and Robert, as well as Williams and Weaver.

Robert has been a no-show, but he has been replaced by Ewing and the performance has been significantly better in CF.  That was a case of addition by subtraction of an addition.

We are likely to lose Bichette to the Phillies if he opts out and Peralta as well.  We will be considerably the worse for those losses, and if the goal is to go all in this year, we will likely have to trade prospects who will need to help make up for those losses next year.  At best, we would gain marginally this year and lose significantly going forward.

Frankly, if Lindor and Polanco come back sufficiently strongly to make the team competitive, then arguably, the only additions that would make sense would be another reliever and a bat off the bench.  

Conclusion

Which option should the Mets adopt?

My preference is option 1.  The fans fantasy of the team performing well enough to have the FO make significant futher investments in this year's team's prospects is a mirage.  Don't look at the team's playoff's chances.  That's a mirage.  Look at the team's actual quality.  

And the experiment of asking what you would get back in a fire sale in terms of prospects should alert any fan to the fact that many who play for this team now are very mediocre at best. 

This is not a team that we should be adding to no matter how they perform over the next couple of weeks.

The case I am making is further enhanced when you factor in the losses this already weak team is likely to suffer through free agency of Bichette and Peralta. Any trades that could conceivably make this team materially more competitive now will impose costs on the future that will have immediate deleterious consequences as early as next year.

I guess that means that no matter how well or poorly the Mets perform between now and FO decision day, I believe that the best strategy to follow thereafter is basically to stand pat, and at most do what every team at the trade deadline hopes to do: add some help to the bullpen and a bat off the bench!

There is no reason to adopt option 3 under any circumstances.  The only reason for adopting option 2 would be if the team is decimated by injuries and so standing pat won't provide much value in terms of information and stability.

But a fire sale that extends from the trade deadline to the offseason is just another way of starting all over again.  And one reason to be wary of doing that is that the team currently has long term commitments to players whose talents would be wasted and young players at key positions whose talents can only develop further in a winning a committed environment.

So I'm for option 1, and I can't wait for the season to end.  I hope the FO has the discipline to hold fast for now and the competence and will to make the right trades and FA signings in the offseason, while correcting whatever has apparently gone amiss in the minor league development program.

Hate to disappoint, but no other decision makes more sense to me.  That's my default.

What's yours?

.

Paul Articulates - Just a few observations

The Mets just finished a pretty successful series against the Atlanta Braves, winning two of three from the team with the best record in MLB.  The Braves are a team full of bats that is fifth in baseball in both average and OPS and fourth in runs scored.

Hats off to the Mets’ pitching staff, who limited that formidable club to just 9 runs in three games.  The pitching was good from both the starters and relievers.  Starters threw 15 innings and gave up 5 runs, all earned.  Relievers threw 12 innings and gave up 4 runs, all earned.  The defense was up to the task, with only a pair of errors in those games that did not factor in the outcomes.  

The Mets hit the ball surprisingly well, racking up 27 hits in those three games.  They hit four solo home runs and one grand slam in spacious Citi Field where the warm air was thin and baseballs saw little resistance.

Do these upticks in both pitching and hitting, coupled with the pending return of Lindor, Mauricio, Taylor, and Senga this month project future success?  I don’t believe that is the case.  There are certainly some positive signs, but a good series does not represent a full turn-around from a dismal start.  The return of Lindor should help the team eventually, though he will have to get up to game speed.  The return of Mauricio and Taylor will cause some tough decisions on who will be released and who will be sent down, but will not materially impact the lineup.  And with Senga, it’s like a box of chocolates – you never know what you will get.

I think that the positives we should be taking from the Mets’ month of June are the play of their youngsters.  Both AJ Ewing and Carson Benge are now hitting above .250 and they are playing solid if not spectacular defense.  They are running the bases aggressively.  Jared Young, who at 30 years of age is young by MLB service time, is making a good argument for why he should remain the team’s starting first baseman.  Christian Scott is looking like the player we expected him to be before his injury and he provides hope every time he takes the mound.  These are the kind of players that you want surrounding veterans like Lindor and Soto.

I just hope that the return of the injured players does not change the entire dynamic through lineup changes and playing time adjustments.  There was a hint of fun in the dugout during this past series, and that is an essential element to playing loose with a clear mind.  That must remain for the team to play well.

As the Mets leave the pitching friendly confines of Citi Field for the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park, I don’t know whether to be excited or worried.  Great American has yielded more homers (111) this year than any other park in MLB.  The Mets certainly have a pitching edge against the Reds (3.85 ERA versus 4.85 ERA), but the Reds can out-slug the Mets.  With Christian Scott and Nolan McLean plus an opener scheduled to pitch against the Reds, we will have to see if the Reds can be held down.  Then it is off to Philadelphia to face another slugging team.

Reese Kaplan -- How Does the Lineup Look With Lindor and Polanco?

While the injuries have a lion’s share of the responsibility for the Mets last place record but it appears two of the major losses are drawing to a close.  If you believe the various stories appearing online all over the place, then you accept the projected June 20th return date for shortstop Francisco Lindor with apparently DH Jorge Polanco following shortly thereafter.  Given the unexpectedly positive results the team has gotten from utilityman Jared Young at first base and the fragility of the two healing injuries for Polanco, a DH assignment for the former Mariner makes the most sense.

So what do these returning players do to the current lineup?  With the multitude of injuries forcing the Mets hand causing promotions and substitute level players getting regular time in the 1-9 spots written out by manager Carlos Mendoza, it would appear there are going to be a number of changes made when the two who emerge from their rehabilitation return to the majors.

First of all, you have a number of players performing poorly.  In no particular order that list would include M.J. Melendez, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Eric Wagaman.  Assuming both Vientos and Baty have a modicum of residual trade value it would seem that Melendez and Wagaman are the fairly obvious choices to go to make room for Lindor and Polanco. 

Do remember that there are other players still on the IL, including Luis Robert, Tyrone Taylor and Ronny Mauricio.  None of them are pending for a near term return to the big club.  Of these three Taylor is arguably the most interesting as he is a free agent at year’s end and is more than serviceable as a defensive player though not nearly as skilled with the bat.  Robert is simply too injury prone to have the faith to bring him back for $20 million for 2027 and A.J. Ewing has shown skills with his glove, his legs and his bat to suggest he is now the center fielder for the future.  Ronny Mauricio is the toughest one to figure out.  He has no room on the roster anymore unless the Mets part ways with one or both of Vientos and Baty.

So how will the new look lineup shake out?  Here’s my take:

• RF — Carson Benge

• SS — Francisco Lindor

• 3B — Bo Bichette

• LF — Juan Soto

• DH — Jorge Polanco

• 1B — Jared Young

• 2B — Marcus Semien

• CF — A.J. Ewing

• C — Francisco Alvarez

My thinking here is that Benge has been on fire after his ice cold start to his rookie season.  Moving him out of the leadoff spot would make little sense given his extended term success.  Lindor can slot in at number two giving you apparently two leadoff capable hitters in a row.  Bichette and his career .294 batting average seem to be a great place setter to bat third with slugger Juan Soto being the cleanup hitter and run producer.  After these slots it gets a little more a matter of lefty/righty alternate hitters (well, Polanco is a switch hitter).  You could flip flop Ewing and Alvarez which would not be as lefty/righty consistent, but it would then give you three leadoff type batters in a row if Ewing is at batting position number nine. 

What’s your take?

Tom Brennan - Randy Jones Was A Genius…Back Then; And the Mets' Hottest Team

(pictured above: Randy Jones)

RANDY JONES ONCE UPON A TIME MAXIMIZED HIS VALUE…

BY USING HIS HEAD 

RANDY JONES WAS A GENIUS… BACK THEN: 

Kevin Kernan in 2021 wrote this about ultra-slow-hurling Randy Jones, whose last 2 career years were with the Mets, at age 31-32, when he went 8-18, 4.69 for truly bad early 1980s Mets teams:

KERNAN: “In 1976, the lefty (Jones) won 22 games, two years after losing 22 games. He started 40 games that season, having pitched 25 complete games over 315 1/3 innings. Those led the league as did the 274 hits he allowed, only 15 them home runs. He surrendered only 109 runs. He struck out just 93 batters. And he worked fast.

“Think about those 93 punchouts,’’ Jones proudly told BallNine. “Half of those had to be the other pitcher. I only struck out like 40 real hitters. If I struck you out, it wasn’t my fault, it was yours, you just missed it.’

Jones’ fastest fastball was 87 MPH. He would never throw it that hard.

“At 87 it would not sink, it would just tail,’’ he explained. “As soon as I’d drop it down to 81-82, then the ball would start sinking. I could throw 73 and the bottom would fall out of it and it would be in the same spot in the strike zone.

“I just changed speeds and my mechanics never changed. A lot of times I would throw a slider into a right-hander’s hands, and I would throw that harder than my fastball and they would look at me like: ‘How the hell are you getting in my kitchen?’ I’d throw the slider 83 and the fastball 78. It was fun setting up guys.

“I would wear out my spot out there on the outside corner, right below the kneecap. 

“I wouldn’t throw a strike the whole game sometimes. I didn’t have to. They would call that pitch a strike and they would keep swinging at it and it was over. Here we go. I’d just live out there.’’

He could pitch. Then he offered this 2021 reality.

“I don’t even know if I would get drafted today.  

“I don’t know about the analytics today. Either you can pitch or you can’t pitch.’’

My thoughts? Randy Jones could get away with being Randy Jones back when Randy Jones pitched. He pitched in a great park for pitchers, and came in first and second in the Cy Young Award tallies in consecutive seasons (1975, 1976).

In those seasons, the median team smacked just 111 home runs.

In 2025, the median team launched 184 home runs. Sixty six percent more.

Randy Jones would have been slaughtered in today’s game, pitching in a hitter neutral park. ERA above 5.00. 

Maybe 6.00, because in today’s game, far fewer balls are called strikes.

He was a genius, all right…for being born when he was. 

And for being a Padre in their great, big ballpark back then.

THE METS' HOTTEST TEAM...

...was the Mets' coldest team 3 weeks ago.

Brooklyn was a subterranean 11-31 in late May.

Since then, through Friday nite? Scorching. 13 wins in 18 games.

24-36 sounds a whole lot better than 11-31.

Still hitting below .200 as a team, the Brooklyn bats have nonetheless been much improved since that late May 11-31 nadir, with the team average rising nearly 20 points in that stretch. 

Pitching has been better, too, with the team ERA dropping sharply to 3.97.

Warmer weather a help?  Very possibly.

May they keep on keeping on.  They are OFFICIALLY THE HOTTEST.

They are scoring 4.1 runs per game, still lowest in what is this season definitely a hitters' league, through 60 games.  

Amazingly, if they can somehow score a mere 188 runs in game # 61, they will catch up to league scoring leader Greensboro, which has scored an insane 7.2 runs per game. 

I will leave you with this extreme, incomprehensible stat of the day: 

Greensboro has 112 HRs, six times as many as Jersey Shore, which has 19 HRs.