MACK – Let’s Revisit - SS - Elian Pena

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - SS - Elian Pena

Elian Peña (also spelled Elian Pena) is a top New York Mets prospect, a left-handed hitting shortstop/infielder from Azua, Dominican Republic (born October 19, 2007).

milb.com

The Mets signed him on January 15, 2025, for a franchise-record $5 million bonus as an international free agent—the largest for any Latin American player in that class and roughly 80% of their bonus pool. He was widely viewed as one of the top position players available (often ranked second or third overall behind Roki Sasaki).

nytimes.com

Background and Tools

• Listed around 5'10"–5'11", 170–192 lbs; bats left, throws right.
• Advanced plate discipline, contact skills, and power potential for his age (scouts have compared the offensive profile to players like Rafael Devers or José Ramírez-style hitters).
• Plays primarily shortstop; some project a possible future move to second or third base. Strong makeup, baseball IQ, and work ethic are frequently praised.
  baseballamerica.com

Performance

• 2025 (DSL Mets Orange, age 17): Overcame an 0-for-26 start to hit .292/.421/.528 (.949 OPS) with 9 HR, 13 doubles, 21 SB (in 25 attempts), and equal walks/strikeouts (36 each) in 55 games. He had two three-homer games and earned DSL Prospect of the Year honors.
  amazinavenue.com
• 2026 (age 18): Assigned aggressively to Low-A St. Lucie (skipping the complex league). He performed well enough for a mid-August promotion to High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. 
  milb.com
• 2026/A+ Brooklyn - 67-AB, 0-HR, 6-RBI, .164

He ranks highly in Mets prospect lists (often top 10–15 system-wide, with some mid-season views placing him higher) a

nd is seen as a potential future impact big-leaguer, though still years away (ETA around 2029–2030). 

As of late August 2026, he is with the Brooklyn Cyclones (High-A).

2026/A+ Brooklyn:

RVH - Building a Sustainable Winner — Part 2: How Milwaukee Keeps Replenishing

 

In Part 1, we examined the quality, depth and cost of Milwaukee’s roster. The striking finding was how much production the Brewers received from an inexpensive group of core players.

That raises the next question: How do they keep finding those players?

A productive, affordable roster can create a competitive window. Keeping that window open requires another group to arrive as established players become more expensive, get injured or move elsewhere.

Milwaukee’s roster offers a useful look at that process. It also gives Mets fans a framework for evaluating what David Stearns is trying to build in New York.

Several years of decisions coming together

Consider four members of the Brewers’ current core:

Player	How Milwaukee acquired him	Acquisition year
Brice Turang	First-round draft pick	2018
Garrett Mitchell	First-round draft pick	2020
Jackson Chourio	International amateur signing	2021
Jacob Misiorowski	Second-round draft pick	2022

These acquisitions span five years and two different entry routes into professional baseball. Their eventual overlap on the major league roster illustrates why organizational development requires patience. (fangraphs.com)

The scouting decision starts the process. Coaching, health, adjustments, playing opportunities and roster decisions determine how much value eventually reaches Milwaukee.

We should be careful about assigning all that credit to the executive who authorized the original acquisition. Identifying a player and helping him become a productive major leaguer are related accomplishments, with different people often contributing along the way.

That distinction will matter when we examine Stearns’ Milwaukee legacy.

A trade can keep producing value through another trade

Some of Milwaukee’s most instructive moves are connected.

The Josh Hader return included Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz. (mlb.com) Milwaukee subsequently traded Ruiz in the deal that brought William Contreras and two pitchers. (mlb.com)

That sequence illustrates why evaluating a transaction only by the players who remain from its original return can miss part of the outcome.

An acquired player can contribute directly. He can also become the means of acquiring someone who better fits the roster.

There is a cost, of course. Trading an established player removes production and creates uncertainty immediately. A later payoff does not erase that earlier risk. A fair evaluation needs to consider both periods.

The Corbin Burnes trade offers another example: Milwaukee received Joey Ortiz, DL Hall and a draft pick. (mlb.com)

The broader roster-building idea is to distribute the return across multiple opportunities and additional seasons of control. Whether that exchange succeeds depends on what those opportunities actually produce.

For our series, the relevant question is whether these decisions sustain the quality of the entire roster over several years.

Finding value after another organization moves on

Milwaukee also acquires players who have already spent time elsewhere.

Jake Bauers arrived from the Yankees in November 2023. Trevor Megill came from Minnesota earlier that year. Both became useful contributors in our current roster analysis. (fangraphs.com)

These moves require a different judgment from drafting a teenager. The organization must identify something it believes can translate into greater production: a skill, a role, an adjustment or simply an opportunity.

We cannot establish the precise cause of every improvement from a depth chart. Better results after a trade do not, by themselves, prove that coaching caused the improvement.

But these players demonstrate why an acquisition strategy should extend beyond established stars and highly ranked prospects.

The failures belong in the accounting, too. Our payroll review included Lance McCullers Jr., whose Milwaukee stint ended in a release. That is a reminder that acquiring experience does not guarantee useful innings.

And a successful season from a player such as Bauers creates another decision: How much of that performance should the club expect to repeat, and at what price?

The original bargain and the next contract are separate evaluations.

Keeping selected players is part of the approach

Replenishment also involves deciding whom to retain.

Before his major league debut, Chourio signed an eight-year, $82 million contract with two additional club options. (mlb.com)

The logic is straightforward. The player receives substantial financial security before proving himself in the majors. The club accepts that early risk in exchange for predictable costs and the opportunity to retain more of his productive years.

That agreement can become extremely favorable when the player develops as hoped. It can also become expensive if he does not.

For Milwaukee, the important principle is selective commitment. A sustainable roster still needs players worth building around, and keeping those players can be as consequential as identifying their eventual replacements.

The next group is already taking shape

Our October prospect snapshot provides another part of the picture.

Jesús Made and Luis Peña lead the list. Other prominent prospects include Brady Ebel, Tyson Hardin and Jeferson Quero. The acquisition routes extend beyond premium draft selections: Hardin was a 12th-round pick, while Bishop Letson was selected in the 11th round.

That variety matters. An organization needs opportunities to find talent throughout the draft and internationally.

The 2026 draft class is also already represented in the top 30 used for this series:

Player	2026 selection	Rank in our October snapshot
Trey Ebel	First round, No. 25 overall	17
Sawyer Strosnider	Second round, No. 66 overall	18
Julian Garcia	Fourth round	24

Rankings are from our saved FanGraphs prospect snapshot; draft selections are confirmed by MLB reporting. (mlb.com, mlb.com)

These players are already included in that inventory. We should not count the draft class again as an additional layer of talent.

Nor should we treat three rankings as three future major league contributors. Their presence adds possibilities. Development will determine how many become useful players, when they arrive and whether their greatest value comes in Milwaukee or in a trade.

For the same reason, an estimated arrival date should never become a roster promise. A team still needs alternatives when a prospect’s timetable changes.

What should the Mets take from this?

The most useful lesson for New York is the value of having choices.

A productive farm system can supply inexpensive contributors, support trades and make injuries easier to absorb. It can also allow the front office to be more selective about which needs require a major financial commitment.

Steve Cohen’s resources create additional possibilities. The Mets can seek the same benefits from scouting and development while having greater capacity to retain successful players and supplement the roster.

That combination is the opportunity we should evaluate throughout this series.

Milwaukee’s current roster suggests several connected strengths: acquisitions spread across multiple years, development that turns some of those players into contributors, trades that create further options, and selective commitments to players the organization wants to keep.

Those strengths still have to produce wins. Prospect rankings and favorable contracts are useful evidence, but sustained major league performance remains the test.

The next installment turns to the attribution question: How much of Milwaukee’s current position traces to David Stearns, and how much reflects what Matt Arnold and the organization built afterward?

We will separate the players Stearns acquired, the assets his successors inherited and the decisions made after his tenure. That should give us a more useful comparison with his work in New York.

Paul Articulates - The honor of Francisco Lindor

On Monday, Francisco Lindor was awarded the Roberto Clemente Award, Major League Baseball’s highest off-field honor, which recognizes the philanthropic efforts of a single MLB player each year.  That is a remarkable achievement for a remarkable man.

Lindor was one of the first big acquisitions of the Steve Cohen era, coming to the team in a trade with Cleveland prior to the 2021 season.  At the time, it seemed like the Mets paid a high price, giving up Ahmed Rosario and Andres Gimenez plus a couple minor leaguers.  Lindor later signed a a ten year, $350M deal with the team.  Both Rosario and Gimenez have had reasonable major league careers, but neither became a star.  Lindor, after a rough start, has been worth every penny of that deal in my opinion.

As a ballplayer, Lindor has delivered 30.8 fWAR since he came to the Mets which ranks him first in that period, well ahead of Brandon Nimmo's 23.1 total.  Lindor has been a defensive standout, an on-the-field leader, and has been in the top 5 for OPS on the team every season except 2022.  

It is tough to ask for more out of a player, though New York fans always want more.  This year's Roberto Clemente award is definitely more.  With all of the money earned by players in this era, there is a certain obligation to give back.  Most players do, but as recognized this week, Francisco Lindor does the most.

Here is a link to the article published by MLB.com that announced the award.  We should be proud to have such an inspirational player on the Mets.

MACK - Draft/Free Agent News

Draft News

 

Draft eligible prospects that were currently uncommitted seem to be lining up late to ‘commit’ to a major college in 2027. As we know, committing really doesn’t mean anything at this point. A player can still sigh with a team that drafts them; however, if there is an owner lockout that lasts for the entire season, there is a possibility of not having a draft at all in 2027.

Is all this relatively late signing have anything to do with this? Are prospect handlers currently advising their ‘clients’ to get all their ducks in line now before the shite hits the fan? Are they advising these kids that the safest route would be attending a college with a pile of NIL money being directed their way?

The following players committed this week, starting with my favorite, RHP Striker Pence. The 6-6 Pense, who throws a fastball already clocked up to 101, has agreed to attend Texas A&A.

Next up comes SS Carter Hadnot, who Baseball America has listed as the top uncommitted player in the 2027 class. He has now agreed to become an Oklahoma Sooner.

BA’s #28 prospect, RHP Grant Sperandio, cut a deal with Texas.

Catcher Caden Borcherding, who was previously committed to Clemson, has been flipped by LSU.  

Lastly, BA #84, RHP, Lukas Waite, has also committed to become a Texas Longhorn.

 

Free Agent News

 

AT           @BaseballWRLD_

Contract predictions for the Top 20 free agents from Jim Bowden:

1) Tarik Skubal: $350-$500 million

2) Freddy Peralta: 5 years, $140 million

3) Teruaki Sato: 5 years, $180 million

4) Michael King: 4 years, $118 million

5) Randy Arozarena: 5 years, $124 million

6) Seiya Suzuki: 5 years, $120 million

7) Jake Bauers: 4 years, $56 million

8) Jazz Chisholm: 6 years, $128 million

9) Brandon Lowe: 3 years, $45 million

10) Clay Holmes: 2 years, $44 million

11) Adrian Morejon: 3 years, $42 million

12) David Bednar: 3 tears, $55 million

13) Nick Martinez: 2 years, $48 million

14) Foster Griffin: 3 years, $67 million

15) Trevor Rogers: 3 years, $64 million

16) Casey Mize: 3 years, $54 million

17) Luis Arraez: 3 years, $60 million

18) Kaima Taira: 3 years, $30 million

19) Ian Happ: 2 years, $45 million

20) Robbie Ray: 2 years, $45 million

Tom Brennan - My Mets Prospects #11 Thru #15

 

FINALLY…I GET DOWN TO THE VENERABLE 11 THRU 15 DUDES!

11) Jacob Reimer

I wonder - what would this achy guy do if he wasn’t always injured? I have healthy skepticism at this point as to whether he can stay healthy for a full season. Just .242/.351/.410 in 88 games, mostly at AA. 

Jefferson, Amick, and Pitre, all of whom can play 3rd base, got late promotions to AAA, while Reimer did not.

He still only turns just 23 at the start of next year’s spring training. 

Might he not even make the 40 man roster? 

Trade candidate? We shall see. He was a 4th round (#119) pick in 2022.

I have him too high at # 11 - unless he stops playing like # 2, and starts playing like # 1, in 2027.

12) Sammy Stafura 

Who cannot love this rabid Mets fan and talented player? 

I perhaps should have snuck him into my top 10.

Acquired in a trade deadline deal that sent Luke Weaver packing, Slamming Sammy’s power was utterly neutered in Brooklyn (2 HRs in 82 at bats), after an explosive homer month in another organization.  

Ballistic missiles also can’t leave Cyclone Park. 

Sammy (a 43rd overall pick in 2023) likely is Binghamton-bound in 2027. Not hitter-friendly there, but better than Brooklyn Acres, so he should thrive.

He ended up 2026 in an injury-shortened 303 at bats. He hit 22 HRs and drove in 59 and scored 59. 

He was 22 of 25 in steals, and 85 of 99 as a pro, is very attractive an attribute. 102 Ks and 41 walks in 81 games.

Fine glove at SS, also played 2B.

He will be 22 years old in 2027, and he is 6’0”, 188.

I could see him move into the Mets’ top 5 prospects in 2027, and be a Mets starting shortstop in 2028. Why not?

13) Aiden Smith 

Another trade acquisition, and drafted 124th overall in 2023 by Seattle, who was dealt to Tampa, who traded him to acquire Mr. Smith.

That was the Freddy Peralta deal, in which the Mets also got Gary Gill Hill and Emilien Pitre.

Smith has really good talent. 

High Ks (111 in 80 games). His hot hitting for Brooklyn, however, got him up to .238/.317/.426 for the essentially half season, with 15 homers and 27 of 30 in steals. 53 RBIs, 64 runs scored.

We will find out how good Smitty is in 2027 in a full minors season.

The 6-1 190 righty OF slugger turns 23 next July. Strong arm, fine outfielder. He could fit into the Mets outfield somewhere in second half 2028 or in 2029. 

14) Cole Mathis 

The 54th overall pick in 2024, yet the 1B/3B has had only 363 pro PAs, which makes me leery about ranking him at all. He makes Jack Reimer look like Lou Gehrig, so far.

Carson Benge, in the same draft, has over 1,200 plate appearances, as a point of extreme contrast.  David Peterson did better after the trade as a Cub than Mathis has so far as a Mets prospect. In fact, Mathis was just 5 for 40 with 9 walks, after he was acquired on June 25. He went .238/.370/.517 in 2026.

And he had only 189 total at bats this year. Off to Arizona he went.

A 6’2, 210 righty slugger who played more 1B than 3B so far.

He was ranked #15 prospect as a Cub in 2025, and his MLB prospect write up last year in part said this as interesting background:

“Mathis broke out as one of college baseball's best two-way players as a sophomore in 2023, when he led the College of Charleston in OPS (1.014) and ERA (3.45) before finishing second in the Cape Cod League with 11 homers in 38 games. He concentrated on hitting last spring while dealing with an elbow injury, bouncing back from a slow start to slash .335/.472/.650 en route to becoming the highest pick in Cougars history. After signing for $1,681,200 as a second-rounder, he had Tommy John surgery in August.

“Mathis employs an effortless, if not picturesque, right-handed stroke and a very patient approach to produce hard contact to all fields. He rarely strayed from the zone or swung and missed in college, though he may need to turn his bat loose more often in pro ball because he takes a lot of strikes.”

“Chances are”, he’s never heard of Nat King Cole or Johnny Mathis. 

Hopefully, Cole can do great in 2027, so that I can “wear a silly grin” at his performance.

15) Cleiner Ramirez 

No one can be finer than Cleiner, who hopefully will solidly hit like Kiner.

He is another Mets bonus baby teenager ($1,372,500) whom Mets fans will love by 2030. He hit 7 DSL HRs, and stole 18 of 19.

But he went cold after June, finishing his DSL season by going 11 for 69 in July and August against ultra-super-duper-soft DSL pitching, which I find slightly concerning. But he was just 17, if you know what I mean. And the way he looks at the plate is way beyond compare.

Plays next year as an 18 year old. 

Will he be a Mets starting shortstop in 2030? Very possibly.

That’s it for the dudes in my venerable # 11 thru # 15. 

An interesting bunch, with 3 trade acquisitions amongst the five, and in fact, as you will see, an amazing 10 of my top 15 this year arrived via 2026 trade, 2026 draft, or 2025-26 international signings.

Next article up, my exceptional 6-10 dudes. All six of them.

Reese Kaplan -- Solving First Base in the Short Term

One of the ways to approach the Alonso size black hole at first base is to keep meandering along with AAAA types or people who might give you a 20+ HR output, not bad but certainly not what you’d expect from a cleanup hitter.  Already Alec Bohm has come up as a possibility to cross the diamond to play first, but he has a reputation for being not the happiest camper in the clubhouse and his offensive production is mid range at best.

Now people are starting to shift focus elsewhere and the new hot rumor name is San Diego Padres pending free agent, Ty France.  The righty hitting slugger had a terrific season for the Friars, hitting a career best 21 HRs, 72 RBIs and a season long batting average of .295.  That last number is somewhat out of the norm for him, but what it suggests is that as a mid level offensive prospect he’s not a bad choice at all.  Throw in his one Gold Glove at first base and you have the makings of an interesting if not equivalent alternative to the departed Polar Bear.

Right now France was paid next to nothing for his age 31 season in San Diego.  Given his strong output in 2026 which also included ending with a 4.5 WAR, he’ll get a sizable increase in pay and likely will command 2-3 years rather than a never ending long term deal. If you make the annual rate a little higher then it’s possible to get him to agree to a shorter deal. He would address the now dismissed run prevention idea while not embarrassing himself at the plate. 

Lurking in the minors even if you write off Ryan Clifford who hasn’t learned how to make contact and to prevent striking out, you do have to consider the future for Billy Amick.  He’s not perfect either because he’s whiffed 246 times in about a season and a half of games played.  That’s a concern as is his minor league career average of .248. Where it gets brighter is in run production.  In 731 ABs he has hit 45 HRs and driven in 148. 

These Amick numbers enter into the equation as Jorge Polanco is a goner after 2027 and you won’t get nearly that level of output from Jared Young.  Consequently the addition of a two year deal for Ty France helps the club hedge its bets on whether or not Amick can improve his numbers. 

There are other first base options from people who are not native players at that position or who could be obtained in trade.  You could plug in a less than ideal free agent like Rhys Hoskins who will provide power but not much else.  The plus there is he is not posting numbers strong enough to entice anyone to offer hi a long term deal.  As it stands right now there is no clear answer to who will man that position other than Jared Young who is not bad but not that good either.  

MACK - Coaches Wars

The Mets are working behind the scenes to change the members of the contracted 2027 coaching staff. It remained behind the scene until it didn’t, when reporters announced that ex-Mets hitting coach, Kevin Long, would not return in a similar role, and current Chicago Cubs assistant hitting coach, John Mallee, would also remain in Chi-town in his current role.

It’s obvious… now… that the Mets are not happy with their hitting coach situation.

Additionally, the Mets announced that they have promoted former major league all-star, Mariano Duncan, from the AA-Binghamton bench coach to an “undetermined full-time coach role on the parent squad. He has previously ben an infield and first base coach for the Dodgers.

Duncan was primarily a middle infielder as a pro, but he did also play some leftfield. He lifetime stats were 5.8-WAR, 4,677-AB, 87-HR, .267.

Paul Articulate got to know him last season and said yesterday that Duncan was a ‘nice guy’. Great. The Mets seem to have a lot of these lately. We all know where nice guys finish.

It seems obvious to m that the Mets are not happy with Troy Snitker as their hitting coach, though Mets suits will tell you that both Snitker and assistant hitting coach Rafael Fernandez are returning for the 2027 season.

This tells me that all the Mets might be doing right now is looking for a replacement for recent departed Direct of Major League Hitting, Jeff Albert, who was recently showed the door. Boy, this is a lot of hitting coaches for one parent level team.

I assume this role will not be filled with Duncan; however, assuming anything about this team could be at a risk.

As we used to say at Disco 92, ‘the best goes on’. 

Steve Sica - Two Met pitchers making the most of AFL Opportunity

Irving Cota delivers a strike in Saturday's AFL action

When the Mets selected Peyton Prescott in the 5th round of the 2025 draft, they were expecting to get a pitcher who could find his way into the middle or high end section of their rotation in a few years. That path has taken a couple of detours. After not appearing in any professional action in 2025, Prescott remained on the IL for the near entirety of the 2026 season. Pitching just one inning of work at the end of the Low-A season.

He's gone through four starts in the AFL, and after a rough first couple of outings, his last two appearances have shown that the Mets might've found something in their 5th-round pick. He's pitched two scoreless outings in five innings of work, and lowered his season ERA to 3.83. He's chalked up seven innings of work in his AFL season and struck out six in the process.

That may not seem like much, but for someone who spent nearly two years on the shelf and in a hitter-friendly league like the AFL, there's a lot to be excited about heading into 2027, so long as Prescott continues to stay healthy.

Irving Cota dominated this Spring with High-A Brooklyn. Used primarily as a reliever, he pitched to the tune of a 0.73 ERA in 24 innings of work. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Binghamton, where, unfortunately, that success didn't continue. He was rocked with a 9+ ERA before injuries cut his season short.

In the AFL, though, Cota has found his old form again. In 11 innings of work, he has a 3.27 ERA with 14 strikeouts, second on the AFL leaderboard. On Saturday, he turned in his longest bullpen outing of the season, allowing two runs in 3 and 1/3 innings with two strikeouts. He also threw a season-high 51 pitches.

Cota will be 23 by MiLB Opening Day in April. The Mets would like to see the success he had early in 2026 with Brooklyn carry over to the higher leagues. So far, in the AFL, where a good amount of the talent hails from Double-A, it looks like he might be able to launch his career further in 2027.

That would be great news for the Mets, who've now grown a reputation for producing stellar pitching prospects on the farm and turning them into more than serviceable members of their rotation and bullpen.