Tom Brennan - PROSPECTS: The Best Guesses…Are Still Guesses…Sato vs. Amick…and Don’t Give Up on Ryan Lambert

SOME LISTS?

THEY TURN OUT TO BE A BUNCH OF BLARNEY

“EENIE MEENIE MINIE MO”

“OK, THAT IS MY GUESS…AND I AM NOT STICKING TO IT”

Each season:

Lots of blood, sweat and tears go into formulating the Mets top 30 prospects list. 

I took a look at the painstakingly prepared 2024 list, formulated with great care just 2 years ago. 

You know, the one on the Mets’ MLB site.

Let’s take a quick look at how those dudes panned out over the last 2 years.

1) Jett Williams - SHORT; no majors for Li’l Jett. Hit .238 in Brewers AAA in 2026.

2) Drew Gilbert - SHORT; .238 in majors. Decent year, but not great for a #2.

3) LuisAngel Acuna - SHORT;  Weak major league hitting. Speedy. Overranked.

4) Ryan Clifford - at # 4, ranked 40 or 50 slots too high, based on his awful 2026.

5) Christian Scott - 5? very appropriate rank, based on fine 2026 pitching for Mets.

6) Ronny Mauricio - certainly seems overrated at # 6. Say, 10 spots too high.

7) Colin Houck - at # 7, ranked 50+ slots too high, based on his awful 2026.

8) Marco Vargas - he rallied in late 2026, but was overrated in 2024 at # 8.

9) Kevin Parada - 20-25 slots too highly ranked. A decent 2026, but bad 2024-25.

10) Blade Tidwell - ranking about right. Can’t predict arm issues.

11) Mike Vasil - about right. Can’t predict arm issues.

12) Jeremy Rodriguez - ranked 40 or 50 slots too high, based on his awful 2026.

13) Brandon Sproat - deserved to be ranked in top 10. Not a great 3-9, 5,43 so far.

14) Dom Hamel: way overrated. NOT top 30 pitcher. Go overseas, like Chris Flexen?

15) Jacob Reimer: seems about right. His injuries drop him 10 slots. Gotta play more.

16) Alex Ramirez - bad in 2024 & 2025, but # 16 is about right after his solid 2026.

17) Yovanny Rodriguez - ranked about right.

18) Tyler Stuart - later arm injury, but seemed a bit overrated at # 18 regardless.

19) Nolan McLean - sure got that one wrong, huh? He’s awesome. Numero UNO.

20) Ronald Hernandez - probably overranked, by ten or more slots. Must hit more.

21) Jesus Baez - way underrated, after his stunning offensive season in St Louis AA.

22) Calvin Ziegler: huge health issues - ranking  at # 22 still seems wishful thinking.

23) Wilfredo Lara - Wilfredo who? Overrated. Not top 30.

24) Nate Lavender - we know who he is now…way underrated. Lavender is Gold.

25) Boston Baro - ranked about right,  with upside from there if he stays healthy.

26) Nick Morabito - under-ranked by a lot. I’d say 10 or more slots too low in 2024.

27) Raimon Gomez - so far, he doesn’t deserve top 30. Injury prone and WILD.

28) Joander Suarez: late 20s rank is about right. Not all guys ranked 28 will make it.

29) Saul Garcia - he is now a lot better than # 29. Ranked 10 slots too low?

30) Rhylan Thomas: he deserved to be in late teens. His power void holds him back.

So…some were accurate, in hindsight, but many were significantly over-ranked or under ranked. I’d say 60% were incorrectly ranked by 10-50 slots, most of those being OVER-RANKED TREMENDOUSLY IN 2024 based on what we know today.

Lots of guesswork. I guess some were good, more than “some” were not so good. 

The only 3 who made it impactfully since the 2024 ranking are McLean, Scott, and Lavender. Maybe Vasil. 

Baez looks like he may soon make a thundering impact.

And the list lacked AJ Ewing. And Benge. And Santucci. Ouch.

FWIW, here is my ranking done in October 2024. 

I think I guessed pretty good:

1) SPROAT

2) JETT

3) TONG 

4) BENGE

5) MCLEAN

6) GILBERT

7) MAURICIO

8) MORABITO

9) BARO

10) ACUNA

11) CLIFFORD

12) J RODRIGUEZ

13) TIDWELL

14) VARGAS

15) SANTUCCI

16) DOHM

17) SNYDER

18) JESUS BAEZ

19 GUTIERREZ

20) YOVANNY ROD

21) EWING

22) VASIL

23) REIMER

24) R HERNANDEZ

25) W YOUNG

26) HAMEL

27) LANTIGUA

28) ALEX RAMIREZ

29) GEBER

30) LAVENDER

And, notably, while they had Houck at # 7, he was already out of my top 30. 

Why?  K Machines don’t often self-repair.

My final note on the topic: 

I had Forgotten all about my # 27 Eddie Lantigua. I realize why. 

He played just 49 games in 2025, with a scant 9 games and 60 day IL in 2026. 

Apparently, an injury to his core. Must have been a DOOZY.

How do you rank THAT currently, even though he will be just 20+next year? 

Baseball is a PARTICIPATION SPORT. PLAYING ACTUAL GAMES BEATS THEORIZING.

I guess he is both agile…and fragile.

He’s currently out of my top 50.  

May he get in 120 games in 2027 and returns to top 30.

SPEAKING OF PROSPECTS…

The question always is…will Mets prospects have a future MLB impact.If the Mets pursue Japan’s slugger Sato, maybe they don’t perceive Billy Amick to be a future answer? Here are some thoughts.

Then I want to hear yours.

SATO VS. AMICK

Question: 

Should the Mets attempt to acquire the left-handed power hitting Sato?

He put a big power numbers in Japan and hit .306, but he tends to strike out a lot. Meanwhile, we have Bill Amick in the minor leagues, not hitting us high average-wise, but with comparable power. He is an alrighty righty hitter.

So, is it worth considering Sato?  

Or is he facing similar pitching quality as our guy Billy has been facing in AA and AAA?

Much of that has to do with the quality of pitching in Japan. Just how good is it?

So I asked my tablet the question, and got this useful answer in reply:

Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) pitching is far superior to Double-A (AA) and is widely considered to be "AAAA" or "Quad-A" talent. 

While it sits just below Major League Baseball (MLB) in overall depth, NPB pitching easily clears both AA and Triple-A (AAA) in terms of sophistication, command, and overall quality. 

The comparison between NPB pitching and the U.S. minor leagues breaks down across several key areas:

1. Repertoire and Sophistication

NPB: The average Japanese starting pitcher features an incredibly deep repertoire, routinely throwing four to five distinct pitch types with elite command. Off-speed pitches, devastating splitters, and breaking balls are heavily prioritized over raw velocity.
AA / AAA: The minor leagues are developmental. Pitchers in AA or AAA are often working on developing a specific third pitch or fixing a mechanical flaw. You see much higher variance and raw, unrefined talent.

2. High-Velocity Arms vs. Pitching Command

Minor Leagues: The U.S. minor league system is flooded with "max-effort" arms that throw with extreme velocity but often lack fine command.
NPB: While average velocity is slightly lower than in MLB, NPB pitchers benefit from using a slightly smaller, tackier baseball with higher seams. This allows them to generate exceptional spin, sharp movement, and pinpoint control that frustrates free-swinging hitters. 

3. Competitiveness vs. Development

Opinions on the exact gap can vary slightly, but data analysts and players who have played in both systems point out a massive structural difference: 

The NPB is a winning-focused major league. Pitchers face established, highly disciplined professionals who lock in on contact and plate discipline. Walk and chase rates in Japan closely mimic MLB averages, whereas AAA and AA lineups feature highly aggressive, free-swinging prospects.
The Elite Ceiling: The best pitchers in Japan (such as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or Yu Darvish) bypass the minor leagues entirely because their talent level transitions directly to the top of MLB rotations. 

How the Talent Transitions

When models project how an NPB pitcher's stats will translate to the Major Leagues, a common benchmark is that a great NPB pitcher will experience a modest inflation in their numbers due to the sheer power of MLB lineups. For instance, an elite 3.00 ERA in Japan typically translates to a very respectable 3.50–4.00 ERA in MLB—a transition that is much more successful than what you would expect from an average AA or AAA call-up

So…would you pursue Sato? 

Or sit back and hope our boy Billy the Kid Amick explodes in 2027?

Many are naysayers on Amick. I am not. I am a yay-sayer on Amick.

FINALLY…DON’T GIVE UP ON RYAN LAMBERT

Lambert scuffled all of the minors regular season in 2026…badly. 

Then, the fireballer went to the AFL.

He pitched very well in the AFL where, frankly, so many pitchers in the six team league pitched horrendously. No runs or hits allowed.

There was another pitcher who scuffled in the minors - back in 2013.

4.51 ERA…1.45 WHIP….allowed 10.2 hits per 9…walked or hit more than 3 guys per 9…and fanned just 7.3 batters per 9 innings (just 18.7% of the batters he faced).

Sucked, right? Yes. 

Would continue to suck? Wrong.

That was Jake deGrom. So…don’t give up on struggling fireballers. Ever.

Cautious Optimist -- My Version of A deep run in the playoffs Mets Team for 2027 on the day before the lockout

 

Throwing caution to the wind

I am writing this on November 14 so by the time it comes out it may be undone completely by FO decisions I am not part of.  Still it summarizes all my thinking about what the Mets roster should and can be in 2027. 

None of it has been based on wild dreams and all of it reflects my own experience with spending money to achieve goals.  Remember University budgets are pretty high and sometimes you have to act counter to cycle -- spend when you should be saving -- in order to take opportunities that won't arise again and to create opportunities when the time is right to do so.  I wouldn't be suggesting  the following  if I thought the costs taken on next year would extend beyond then.  

Next year is the right time and maybe the last time in quite some time that the Mets will be asked to get out from bad contracts.  PERIOD.

So here's the team I have constructed as would be GM

Starting Rotation

Skubal.     FA 7 yr deal

McLean

Scott

Gausman. FA 2yr deal

Thornton +

Tong  starting in Syracuse  (with Santucci and Wenninger knocking)

Relievers

Morejon.  FA. 3yr + option

Williams

Loisaga. FA  2yr deal + option

Lavender

Meyers

Duarte

Lambert 

Nunez, Garrett, Jenkins, MeGill Yan and Garcia ( on the ready but not ready yet for different reasons)

Starting Line-up

Lindor

Soto

Bichette

Benge

Contreras.   Trade under contract for 1 yr + option

Rojas

Ewing

Whoever is playing for whomever is DHing,  Most of the time that will be either Soto, Lindor or Bichette and occasionally Contreras as DHs, which means either Voit, Morabito or Baty will be batting 8th

Catcher (Torrens or Alvarez)

Bench

Baty

Voit

Morabito

Taylor.   FA 2 year deal

Torrens or Alvarez

Is there anyone who thinks this roster would be improved by substituting Semien or Polanco for any of the infielders or Senga and Manaea for any of the pitchers, not to mention at the cost of doing so!

Moreover, this team is easy to build on going forward and as currently constructed is definitely among the top 4 teams in the NL.   The pitching is better than anyone else's is.  The defense is very good.  Speed is a little short of Milwaukee's.  Power has improved dramatically.

There are replacements coming for Bichette if he leaves after 2027, and certainly after 2028.  Pitchers are coming.  Pena and Asignen on the infield.  Outfielders coming.

I am personally not in love with the starting pitching long term just yet.  Gausman will eventually need to be replaced.  Scott has yet to show length and needs an off-speed pitch. Thornton has not yet established himself.

Robbins may dislodge Ewing in the outfield

There is just so much to like about this team.

I ask only one thing of you.  Ask yourself, exactly why in the world would you hold off on moving forward in this direction immediately? Isn't holding on to Manaea, Senga, Semien and Polanco just a simple waste of time at this point?  Worse than a waste of time; it holds us back from moving forward.

No insult intended.  Just a reality check.

MACK - DRAFT STUFF

 

MACK - Draft News Update

 

FLOSPORTS – top 10 draft prospects –

Brendan Lawson, SS, Florida

Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State

Dylan Seward, SS, Norco (CA)

Tomas Valincius, LHP, Mississippi State

Gavin Kelly, C/2B, West Virginia

Landon Hairston, OF, Arizona State

Malachi Butler, SS, McEachern (GA)

Chris Levonas, RHP, Wake Forest

Jimmy Janicki, C/3B, Troy

Ryan McPherson, RHP, Mississippi State

 

Bleacher Report – Top 5 Draft Picks & Teams:

1. Colorado Rockies – Brendan Lawson, SS, Florida

A .315/.464/.602 hitter in his first two seasons, Lawson hit 19 HR in spring 2026. While some scouts see him as a potential 2B/3B, his bat and defensive tools keep him near the top

2. New York Mets – Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State

A 6'5", 218‑lb righty with a three‑pitch mix and frontline potential if he builds on his sophomore success

3. Los Angeles Angels – Dylan Seward, SS, Norco HS (CA)

A quick‑twitch, 80‑grade speed player with elite bat‑to‑ball skills and defensive range. Projected as a top‑of‑the‑draft shortstop

4. Athletics – Gavin Kelly, C/2B, West Virginia

A standout from a College World Series‑winning team, Kelly projects as a versatile infielder with strong defensive skills

5. Toronto Blue Jays – Landon Hairston, OF, Arizona State

A .400/.509/.860 hitter with 28 HR and 81 RBI in 2026, combining hit tool and raw power

 

Teams with the Most Draft Prospects – MSN

 

Texas Leads With Six Top 100 Prospects

Dylan Volantis (No. 11), Sam Cozart (25), Ian Armstrong (38), Adrian Rodriguez (41), Linkin Garcia (52) and Brett Crossland (91) give Texas the largest group. Volantis has transitioned from closer to starter with a five-pitch mix and strong strike-throwing ability.

Cozart posted a 1.72 ERA as a freshman closer and has the arsenal to develop into a starter. Armstrong offers contact skills and solid receiving, while Garcia brings raw power and arm strength. Rodriguez adds contact ability and defensive versatility.

 

LSU Has Five Prospects In The Rankings

Casan Evans (No. 15), William Schmidt (34), Bino Watters (50), Dawson Park (69) and Jason Wachs (99) represent LSU. Evans’ fastball has reached 99 mph, although his command needs improvement. Schmidt’s slider and curveball offer strikeout potential, while Watters and Park bring power and defensive ability, respectively.

 

Florida’s Four Include No. 1 Brendan Lawson

Brendan Lawson (No. 1), Aidan King (21), Jackson Barberi (26) and Joshua Whritenour (67) make up Florida’s group. Lawson combines left-handed power with strong contact skills, while King earned SEC pitcher of the year honors in 2026. Barberi and Whritenour have each reached 101 mph.

 

Tennessee Matches Florida With Four Prospects

Trent Grindlinger (No. 13), Landon Mack (33), Blaine Brown (89) and Chris Ramirez (93) give Tennessee four representatives. Grindlinger hit .345 with eight home runs as a freshman, and Mack’s fastball has reached 100 mph. Brown offers substantial raw power, although Tommy John surgery could limit him to designated hitter.

Reese Kaplan -- How Good or Bad Is the 2027 Starting Pitching?

So the GM Meetings have come and gone  While everyone expected an accelerated array of free agent signings and trades being made with the early December lockout just weeks away, not a whole lot in that regard happened.  Yes, the Reds lost their closer Emilio Pagan in free agency to the Detroit Tigers and the Braves signed their own former reliever Evan Phillips in free agency from the Dodgers.  The Mets, of course, did nothing. 

With 17 days left before the end of November the holes in the roster still exist and the 2026 free fall into the cellar hasn’t seen any corrective actions taken.  Yesterday we discussed finding a left handed reliever.  Today let’s consider the prospect of who will be in the 2027 starting rotation with and without the addition of Tarik Skubal. 

As it stands right now before that free agent negotiation comes to a conclusion the Mets five man army of starting pitchers is OK but not great.  The top three — Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton should be better than average though Thornton’s limited track record in the majors makes him a bit of an uncertainty for projection.

After that it gets a bit murkier.  They could go with starters Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga if they wanted to use current roster options in that role. They could insert less likely people like Justin Hagenman, Tobias Myers, Tylor Megill and other patchwork names to occupy the 4th and 5th spots.  None of them are that good but then neither of the above pair of veterans would fill anyone’s heart and head with confidence either.  Jonah Tong belongs here, sometimes showing brilliance but other times being treated as a batting practice pitcher.

There has already been narrative about Senga receiving trade interest given his one year commitment of a modest $15 million salary.  There has been no chatter whatsoever about Manaea other than the piece suggesting a swap of ending salaries with the Rangers for their fist baseman, Christian Walker.

Consequently it is indeed looking as if the Mets will need not just one new starting pitcher but perhaps a pair of them since the alternatives are less than appealing if they are indeed serious about returning to contention.  Skubal is indeed ace material but the questions about him are both about his conditioning and the king’s ransom it will require per year and for many, many years to lure him onto David Stearns’ woefully constructed last place team that he did not improve.  The obvious pitchers behind him — Michael King and Clay Holmes — combined would cost less than Skubal and fill both of those vacancies.  

Trade possibilities including prominent names like the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen do exist but in this case preserving some of the team’s better minor league assets by opting to go the free agent route could be a better approach.  No one is going to give you one of the latter two for a package of the already written off players the Mets wish they could peddle elsewhere. 

For now it’s a frustrating waiting game to see what, if anything, takes place in the pitching rotation improvement.  

MACK - Lockout Update

 

A lockout by MLB owners is widely expected to begin on or around December 2, 2026, after the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1—there is no player strike underway or imminent.⁠ USA Today

The five-year CBA (reached in March 2022 after the previous 99-day lockout) ends soon, and both sides remain far apart. Owners are expected to implement a lockout immediately rather than continue operating under the old rules. A lockout freezes major-league transactions, free-agent signings, trades, and player-team contact (players are barred from team facilities) until a new deal is reached. Minor-league activity continues under a separate agreement.⁠ Bleacher Report

Core Dispute: Salary Cap

Owners are pushing hard for a salary cap (and floor), which baseball has never had. The MLBPA strongly opposes any hard cap, viewing it as a fundamental restriction on player earnings and free-market principles. This echoes the 1994–95 strike that canceled the World Series.⁠ Inquirer

Latest proposal (November 3, 2026): MLB offered to delay a hard salary cap/floor until the 2028 season (instead of 2027), with projected 2028 figures of a $258.2 million cap and $180.2 million floor (up from earlier proposals). For 2027, the current luxury-tax and revenue-sharing systems would largely remain. Other elements included raising the minimum salary (toward $1 million for many players), earlier free agency for some veterans (five years instead of six for players 30+), elimination of the qualifying-offer system, and other adjustments. The league framed this as allowing a smoother transition.⁠ CBS Sports

The MLBPA rejected it quickly, arguing it still requires accepting a cap system that would massively reduce overall player compensation (especially at the top), restrict rights (e.g., guaranteed contracts), and create a zero-sum environment. The union has repeatedly stated it will not accept a salary cap.⁠ Mlbtraderumors

Current Status (as of mid-November 2026)

Free agency is active for now (it opened after the World Series), so some deals can still happen before any lockout freezes everything.

Negotiations continue but are described as largely fruitless so far, with little expected progress before the deadline. Player unity against a cap is high.

Key upcoming dates include GM meetings, owner’s meetings (around mid-November), and the Winter Meetings (early December, which could be affected).

Potential Impact on 2027

Commissioner Rob Manfred has expressed confidence a deal can be reached in time to avoid major disruption, but many observers expect the lockout to extend into spring training or beyond (similar to or longer than the 2021–22 stoppage). Early-season games are lower-revenue, which can reduce owners’ urgency. Significant lost games (e.g., 60+) could trigger extensions of media deals. The 2027 season is at risk of a delayed start or abbreviated schedule depending on how long talks drag.⁠ CNN

In short: No games or major-league activity are disrupted yet, but a lockout is the near-universal expectation within about three weeks. The salary-cap issue is the main barrier, and resolution timing will determine the effect on the 2027 season.

UPDATE -

  https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/2120891423142633608?s=03

The current collective bargaining agreement expires in less than three weeks. There’s essentially no chance a new agreement will be reached before end of day on December 1. Major League Baseball will immediately implement a lockout to freeze all offseason activity.

As the sides brace for a lockout, Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal writes that MLB has begun to prepare for the possibility of one fairly extreme union action. Diamond suggests the league has planned for a scenario in which the MLBPA opts to file a disclaimer of interest during the lockout. That essentially means that the MLBPA would temporarily step down as an official union and sole bargaining unit on behalf of MLB players, instead operating as a trade association. (The players would surely recertify the MLBPA as an official union once there’s a new agreement in place.)

A disclaimer of interest would mean the MLBPA could no longer bargain on behalf of the players — at least until it’s reestablished as the sole bargaining unit. That would end collective bargaining negotiations without an agreement. Players would forfeit their protections under labor law but would be permitted to file their own antitrust lawsuits (likely in a class-action) against Major League Baseball.

It would be an extreme measure because it ends any hope of reaching a negotiated agreement through the collective bargaining process. One academic described it to Diamond as “the nuclear option.” The MLBPA has not disclaimed in prior negotiations, at least partially because of Major League Baseball’s century-old antitrust exemption.

According to Diamond, the Curt Flood Act of 1998 opens the door for the MLBPA, though the sides have managed to reach an agreement in every subsequent negotiation without decertification. That includes the 2022 negotiation, the first in which MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer (then the union’s lead negotiator) was involved.

Reese Kaplan -- Finding Available Lefty Relievers in Free Agency

While most of the baseball world is understandably distracted by the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, the Mets need more than just a dominant starting pitcher to help vault themselves back into contention as a decent team.  Today we’ll not look at the lackluster offense either.  Both are certainly agenda items to address for the 2027 if and when it takes place.

Today instead we will look at how to restructure and reinforce the bullpen that was actually better late in the year than anyone could have expected, but there are still big questions that need to be answered. We’re not going to delve into the Devin Williams vs. Kodai Senga as closer debate either.  

We will instead focus on the setup guys the team might try to buy on the free agent market to make what worked well with minimal experience in August and September by fortifying it with some experienced bullpen talent.

Right off the bat, two former Mets relievers are on the open market.  Brooks Raley was a great unknown when he came to the Mets from the Rays back in 2023 and he pitched far better than anyone could have reasonably expected.  He was already 35 years old and surprisingly appeared in 66 games, finishing the season with a highly impressive 2.80 ERA.  

In 2024 the season was pretty much lost to injury and he only got into 30 games in 2025 but again showed what he could do with a 2.45 ERA.  

Everyone looked forward to 2026 when he was fully healthy and dropped that 45 game stint to an ERA under 2.00.  He’ll be turning 39 during the 2027 season and his asking price plus proof of the ability to pitch in New York would make him a viable option.

Also immediately available is top quality southpaw AJ Minter.  He’s done spectacularly well for a variety of teams and the only black mark on his Mets metrics is the time he spent on the IL instead of on the mound.  For his career he’s been known to pitch in an average of 68 games per season and owns a lifetime 3.15 ERA.  He was a bit more expensive with his outgoing Mets contract paying him $11 million per season.  

While he would certainly provide the level of reinforcement the Mets need to support their starting pitchers, with all of the other holes needing to be filled you’re left questioning if spending half as much for Raley and relying on the 2026 rookie lefty Nate Lavender to address the need for southpaws.

 

Of course many decent options exist in the free agent marketplace, too.  Everyone has already heard a plethora of info about Padres setup star Adrian Morejon. Though he’s ending his Padres tenure on a $3.75 million salary it is understood that clubs looking not for a setup guy but a closer or a plan to convert to starting pitcher are going to jump that number probably three fold.

A less costly option would be the now former Dodger Alex Vesia.  

The now 30 year old Vesia owns a career ERA of just 2.87.  This past season he appeared in 72 games and his track record suggests he doesn’t wilt under big market pressure.  His ending salary with LA is $3.55 million.  He won’t cost as much as Morejon who is a flashier flame throwing strikeout specialist. 

After that are a collection of highly credible options who are not quite at the level of these four pitchers.  They would include:

Brock Burke

Yuki Matsui

Sean Newcomb

Steven Okert

JoJo Romero

MACK - Chain Position Analysis - Relief Pitching (Part One)

 

MACK –

 

RELIEF PITCHING

 

I am breaking up pitching into four separate posts.

One, for RED Prospect relievers.

The second and third for BLUE prospect relievers (the list is so long).

The fourth is for GREEN almost prospects.

I will save rating relievers until all three posts regarding them are completed.

 

Here are my RED Prospect relievers:

 

MLB/Mets – Devin Williams – (32) – RHRP – 2^nd rd. 2013 –

            2026:  44-apps, -0.5-WAR, 3-2, 4.43, 1.57, 40.2-IP, 21-BB, 52-K

The Mets looked past last seasons disappointing season with the Yankees (-0.3-WAR, 4.79) and dreamed of the 1.25, 1.53, and 1.93-ERAs he produced in the three pervious years for his original team, Milwaukee. It just didn’t happen.

Williams is signed through 2028, so he gets two more shots at this. He also has 517-K in a career of 338.1-IP.

My money is on him.

 

MLB/Mets – Reed Garrett – (33) – RHRP – 16^th rd. 2014 –

            2026:  on injured reserve (Tommy John Surgery)

In September 2026, he successfully threw live bullpen sessions, facing hitter. Told everyone that his are felt strong and would be ready to return on opening day 2027.

Garrett was signed through this past season for $1.3mil, but becomes arbitration-eligible for three years, ending with the 2029 season.

Prior to the injury, he had two workhorse seasons for the Mets (2024: 53-apps, 3.77… 2025: 58-apps, .390). Not all-star team stats, but good for a horse that works. Garrett has turned into the ultimate junk pitcher… currently only 4% of his repertoire is his 4-seam fastball.

I expect him to return to the same role he performed for the Mets in 24/25.

 

AAA/Syracuse – Saul Garcia – (23) – RHRP – IFA 2021 –

         2026: AA/Binghamton – 44-apps, 1-2, 3.99, 1.25, 49.2-IP, 19-BB, 66-K

                  AAA/Syracuse - 7-apps, 1-0, 1.64, 0.64, 11.0-1P, 3-BB, 8-K

Garcia had a remarkable 2025 (A+/AA: 1.70), but regressed a little this past season for the B-Mets; however, he seems to be back on track after seven appearances at the AAA level.

The sky is the limit for him on 2027, but he’s going to need more time in Syracuse before he can be considered for the parent team.

 

AA/Binghamton – Bryce Jenkins – (25) – RHRP – 17^TH rd. 2023 –

            2026:  A+/Brooklyn – 32-apps, 4-2, 1.99, 0.79, 40.2-IP, 15-BB. 47-K

                       AA/Binghamton – 13-apps, 4-0, 0.66, 1.09, 13.2-IP, 5-BB, 14-K

It’s hard to find anything done wrong in 2026 by Jenkins. Yes, his WHIP went up a when he was promoted to AA-ball, but his ERA went way down. I mean one total earned run down. Where he starts off next season is still undetermined. His age might push him to AAA.

Either way, he looks like a star in the making.

MACK – MEDIUM - 2027 MLB Draft Top 9 Prospects

https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/2027-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects  

Picks 7-9:

7. Malachi Butler (HS SS)

McEarchen HS (GA), Georgia Tech Commit

6' 3", 190 lbs, L/R

Butler is how you draw them up. A 6' 3", left-handed shortstop, Butler’s swing and operation is very efficient. There’s little to no unnecessary moving parts, quiet triggers, and a direct, compact path to the zone. It’s a swing built for contact, and Butler makes tons of it. It’s a simple approach best suited for working the gaps. 

Butler doesn’t chase out of the zone much, and pulls the trigger when he does get pitches within the zone. It’s already one of the most distinguished hit tools among the prep crop. The swing is very short, and can look to lack some leverage at times, but Butler hits the ball hard enough, and can put a charge into one enough to suggest he’ll end up someone with average raw power. Though, he’ll have to take more chances early in the count to punish the ball pull-side if he’s to tap into it.

Butler’s more of an average runner, but he’s got all the actions to suggest a long-term shortstop. He makes up for a his more lacking raw foot speed with a quick first step and the ability to make tough throws on the run. 

Butler is quick laterally and has solid average arm strength that’s good enough for shortstop. He’s no defensive show pony, either. The actions have consistently translated well to in-game settings. He’s got the potential to be an above-average defender there, although average may be a safer bet long-term.

Butler’s entire profile from top to bottom screams pro-caliber. It’s an offensive profile that keeps hitting easy and simple, it’s strong defensive actions at shortstop, and enough size to hope on some power coming on. A fairly high-floor hitter with enough upside to get potentially excited about. 

Additionally, Butler won’t even be 18 years old on Draft day, another plus in his game. There’s just simply not many holes to poke in Butler’s profile. This looks every bit the part of a first round prep shortstop.

 

8. Gavin Kelly (C/UTIL, West Virginia)

6' 0", 185 lbs, R/R

Kelly is yet another in the recent trend of athletic amateur catchers with speed and defensive versatility. Kelly may be the most athletic one yet, however, and may still have room left to grow.

At the plate, Kelly is rather upright, with a short stride forward, keeping his weight back, and getting the toe down early. He has obvious contact skills, showing big bat speed when he uncorks, both staying on velocity and holding his own on secondaries. He effectively spoils even when he’s fooled, shortening up with two strikes, and still generating enough force to consistently impact the baseball. 

He can get the ball in the air, working a gap-to-gap approach, more intent on impacting the ball than selling out for his game power. He’s able to have the ball squeeze out over the fence with a metal bat, though his power stroke is primarily to dead center field, and the opposite way. The raw power is mostly average to this point, and whether the game power can effectively translate with a wood bat like it has with metal is a question he’ll need to answer. 

He’s very adjustable, able to let the ball travel with ease, and recognizing spin within the zone, with some natural loft to the smooth right-handed stroke. He possesses a quiet approach that effectively stays off balls out of the zone, while not keeping the bat on his shoulder when he gets pitches within the zone. 

As currently constructed, his swing isn’t the most constructed for pull-side damage. He projects more as an average power, primarily doubles hitter kind of guy. He has the tools to potentially be a plus hitter.

Kelly is a true Swiss Army Knife that can fit in any position on the field. The catching chops are quite impressive, with impressive framing skills, plus lateral agility and blocking skills, and an above-average arm, showing himself adept at managing the running game and throwing out baserunners. 

He’s got the look of a plus or better catcher defensively. That’s not the end of the defensive train for Kelly, however. He’s a plus runner on the whole, who has good twitch and bend on the dirt, most of his time coming at second base there. He’s got plenty of range going to his right, and could be tried out as a shortstop in the low minors and see how he takes to it, as well. 

He’s gotten time in the outfield, too, and he’s got plenty of range out there, with strong reads and routes. Unlike your classic utility player who is a jack of all trades, master of none defensively, Kelly legitimately could play any defensive position on the infield, outfield, or behind the dish, and be a defensive asset.

Kelly’s best defensive position currently does appear to be catcher currently, but there is a not so silent crowd of evaluators who would like him to move out from behind the plate in favor of a position where he’d be able to get his bat in the lineup every day with less bodily risk to himself. Second base has been the most popular suggestion, though Kelly becoming a full-time second baseman removes a whole lot of the allure of the athlete.

 

9. Ryan McPherson (RHP, Mississippi State)

6' 3", 215 lbs

McPherson is a legit arm talent who checks a lot of boxes, even if he doesn’t necessarily excel at any one thing. Up to 99 mph, McPherson has a powerful frame and holds 94–97 mph in his starts with some authority, leading with the pitch and trying to establish it early. It’s very low-effort velocity. 

The shape is more solid than anything, and McPherson doesn’t hide the ball exceptionally well, leading to it playing more mediocre compared to how hard he throws it. It has more visual running life than carry, though the raw velocity certainly helps, he pounds the zone and can get it to the top rail when he’s on.

While McPherson won’t have every single pitch firing on all cylinders in one outing, each pitch can shows it’s flashes of being above-average or better depending on the night. His best bet of the bunch is an upper-80s changeup that he seriously sells, with impressive tunnel and depth. 

He can manipulate both more of a true changeup and splitter-like offspeed within that bracket, a testament for his feel for the offspeed. That feel makes it easy to project the pitch out as plus. His firm 83–86 mph knuckle curveball was once his bread and butter, though the pitch is more inconsistent now as the arsenal around it has improved. It still has solid, short movement, and can be effective when he’s picking and choosing his spots right, and putting it where he wants instead of letting it hang up in the zone. 

He began to show a harder upper-80s slider shape later into the year that looked better than his curve. So, while the changeup is the most effective weapon, he’s shown capable of spinning the ball and being able to get to firm, distinct shapes.

McPherson has a nice, simple motion that he has fantastic feel to consistently repeat. He does everything fairly well, with four pitches that can flash above-average, a plus changeup, good velocity, a good body, and above-average strikes. This is as good of a bet to be a big league arm, and a big league starter at the next level as it gets. 

It’s merely about what it looks like when he gets there. But this is a fairly low-variance number 3/4 starter at the next level who doesn’t have the raw traits or explosiveness to be too much more, and does too much well to be too much less. 

There’s a good deal of similarities in the motion to Brandon Woodruff. He may never have the fastball value Woodruff had, but the rest of the profile looks rather similar otherwise.