10/24/26

MACK – Just Baseball – Top 10 Prep Prospects in 2027 MLB Draft

 

1              Dylan Seward                    SS

HT/WT: 6’0/177 | Bat/Throw: S/R | School: Norco (Eastvale, CA) | Commitment: Tennessee | Projected Age: 18.10

California hasn’t produced a top-five prep pick since Marcelo Mayer in 2021, but Dylan Seward should end that streak in 2027. The switch-hitting talent is an incredibly gifted athlete with advanced tools and elite speed, and he’s locked in as the top high school player in the class.

Seward will carry a high floor defensively, as he’s one of the more decorated infield defenders available. Playing with confidence and composure, Seward has the makings of a plus shortstop defender. His twitch is evident in his actions, with strong lateral range and a gliding style, paired with a strong internal clock, exquisite body control, and quick exchanges. It’s above-average arm strength across the diamond, too. He should contend for Gold Gloves at the next level.

At the plate, Seward offers tantalizing upside, though there are some rough edges to smooth over in the coming months. Both iterations of his swing show repeatable mechanics, with a rhythmic waggle and a compact path. Scouts currently prefer the right-handed swing, which features a flatter plane and better barrel control than his left-handed swing, which has more loft through the zone. Seward isn’t afraid to use the entire field to his advantage, driving the ball into gaps with authority from the left side and showing a more pull-oriented approach from the right.

He has surprising power for his stature, coiling well and producing electric bat speed from both sides thanks to lightning-quick hands and explosive hips. He has generated robust exit velocities with wood bats, up to 107 MPH at times, and most believe he has above-average juice at the end of the day. With 80-grade speed in the back pocket, he’s not afraid to use his legs to produce extra-base hits, and he’ll be a legitimate base-stealer at the next level.

 

2              Malachi Butler                   SS

HT/WT: 6’3/190 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: McEachern (Powder Springs, GA) | Commitment: Georgia Tech | Projected Age: 17.10

In a polished crop of prep shortstops, Malachi Butler looks to be the best of the bunch. He’s got the size, hitterish traits, and defensive prowess to be an early first-round pick, and that’s without mentioning he’s one of the youngest eligible players (17 years, 10 months old on draft day).

Butler possesses a silky-smooth left-handed swing with a wide base, excellent balance, and a calm move through the baseball. He’s direct and quick to the ball, with pristine bat-to-ball skills. Butler rarely whiffs, stays on velocity consistently, and adjusts well to secondary pitches. He’s unafraid to spray the ball around the yard and regularly attack the gaps with ease. Butler will make sound swing decisions, and he’s added a bit more aggression at the plate to stave off passivity concerns. There’s not a ton of holes to poke in the hit tool.

Power isn’t a big part of his game yet, though scouts believe he’ll add more as he develops. He has developed more bat speed and consistently finds the barrel, though he sometimes lacks leverage in his swing. However, he hits the ball hard enough at this stage to project average power, especially if he can pull the ball more.

While he’s merely an average runner, Butler moves extremely well at shortstop, and he has the actions and arm strength to stick at the position long-term. Crisp actions, strong lateral range, and smooth transfers point to above-average defense at a key position on the diamond. If he moves elsewhere, his size and tools fit best at third base.

Boasting this kind of well-roundedness at this age is impressive, and it should lead to the Georgia Tech commit being selected in the first half of the first round next summer.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Field: 55 | Arm: 55

 

3. George Ferguson – RHP

HT/WT: 6’4/216 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Abilene (Abilene, TX) | Commitment: Texas | Projected Age: 18.8

A native of Abilene, Texas, Ferguson is looking for a storybook ending to his high school career after an incredible summer showing.

A physical athlete with an unorthodox delivery, he is the best prep arm in the class thanks to outstanding arm strength, pitchability, and arsenal strength. It’s not a delivery you’d expect from a starting pitching prospect, with violence and recoil at release and a tall-and-fall style that lacks efficient lower-half drive. Despite this, Ferguson repeats his mechanics well and frequently pounds the strike zone, throwing strikes over 70% of the time during the summer circuit.

His fastball has all the makings of a plus pitch, sitting in the mid-90s with downhill plane and a robust mix of ride and run through the zone. It’s a true bat-misser (54% whiff rate in 2026) with impressive spin rates, consistently ranging from 2,500 to 2,800 RPM.

He pairs this with a hard, diving change-up in the upper-80s with excellent conviction and feel, racking up empty swings and chases below the zone. He mostly reserves it for left-handed hitters, though he’s shown confidence throwing it against right-handed hitters. It’s an easy plus offering at this stage, and some scouts will slap a double-plus grade on it depending on who you ask. His final offering is a mid-80s slider that has added power and sharpness, with a mix of depth and sweep that makes it an out pitch against righties. It lags behind the fastball-cambio combination, but it has enough traits and power to reach above-average upside.

The Texas commit is as well-rounded as they come on the mound, and despite the inefficiencies that require additional polish, Ferguson has a chance to be the first prep arm off the board in July.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Change: 60 | Command: 55

 

4. Graham Houston – SS

HT/WT: 6’1/175 | Bat/Throw: S/R | School: Venice (Nokomis, FL) | Commitment: Louisiana State | Projected Age: 18.11

By now, amateur baseball fans should be well acquainted with the Houston family. Graham’s older brother, Marek, was a first-round pick of the Minnesota Twins in 2025 after a stellar three-year career at Wake Forest. Graham has the same polish and tools, though many believe he’s a better prospect than his brother at this stage.

A true switch-hitter, Houston is a bat-to-ball artist with super quick hands and a direct path to the ball. He covers every quadrant of the zone exceptionally well, posting a 96% in-zone contact rate this summer, and his affinity for fastballs is equally impressive, with north-of-90% contact overall and in the zone. Houston is an aggressive swinger, posting chase rates around 30%, but the pure contact skills and adjustability help keep strikeouts to a minimum.

He won’t be a huge power threat, but Houston has a knack for lacing line drives into the gaps and letting his above-average speed do the work. He does have better power projection from the right side because his swing plane has more loft, though most expect him to have fringe-average power at best.

Like his brother, he’s a smooth shortstop defender with exceptional lateral range and controlled actions. His instincts are great; he gets solid reads off the bat, takes a quick first step, and has above-average arm strength and accuracy across the diamond. Scouts expect Houston to become a plus defender.

His profile is incredibly well-rounded, and he could be drafted higher than his brother. If he goes undrafted, Houston would enroll at Louisiana State.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Field: 60 | Arm: 55

 

5. Carter Hadnot – SS

HT/WT: 6’2/175 | Bat/Throw: S/R | School: Aquinas (Rialto, CA) | Commitment: N/A | Projected Age: 19.2

Hadnot is a perfect example of how you draw up a prospect. With a wiry, lithe build and plenty of projection, he’s an explosive athlete with an outstanding glove and offensive upside that has trended up over the past calendar year.

Hadnot projects to be the best glove in the shortstop class. He glides across the dirt with little effort, controls his body extremely well, and has a bouncy style to his game. His exchanges are smooth and quick, and he adjusts to the ball extremely well. Additionally, Hadnot has shown more arm strength, now grading as above average. As a result, Hadnot can be a double-plus glove, which makes him the best defender among the top shortstops in this class.

Offensively, Hadnot grew into more extra-base impact on the summer circuit. As a switch-hitter, scouts prefer his smooth, controlled left-handed swing to the right-handed version, which has less barrel control and a flatter plane. It’s been serviceable so far, though scouts are split on whether he can remain a full-time switch-hitter. From the left side, he backspins the ball well and has loft to his swing plane, which has led to a few balls over the right-field fence.

That said, most of his impact will come in the gaps, where he’ll use his plus speed to generate doubles and triples. Hadnot rarely expands the zone, though he can get too passive on pitches inside the zone, leaving him behind in counts early. Despite this, he has solid bat-to-ball skills and should play more aggressively.

His glove gives him a high floor as a prospect, and if the bat continues to surge in production, Hadnot has all-star appearances in his future. In late October, Hadnot announced his commitment to Oklahoma.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 60 | Field: 70 | Arm: 55

 

6. Jack Leeper – OF

HT/WT: 6’2/200 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: St. Francis (Menlo Park, CA) | Commitment: Stanford | Projected Age: 18.5

Possessing some of the best offensive upside in the class, Leeper looks the part walking off the bus. He’s a physical athlete with broad shoulders and strength throughout his body, and he stands out on the diamond among his peers. It’s not just his physicality and athleticism; his bat is extremely potent from the right side of the plate.

Leeper’s operation looks unorthodox, but it works. He starts with an open front leg and a noteworthy bat waggle that loads his hands into the launch position, then flicks his hands forward with a flatter entry into the zone than most. This lets Leeper cover the top rail of the strike zone well, and he’ll consistently barrel up pitches in the zone, posting a 93% in-zone contact rate this summer. He tends to expand the zone frequently, though he’s shown the ability to barrel up the ball regardless of its location. It’s an impressive hit tool that projects as plus.

While he hasn’t yet sold out for power in-game, he’s shown robust bat speed and plus raw power in batting practice. With an exit velocity of 110 MPH already attached to his name with a wood bat, scouts expect that power to translate in due time.

Leeper has turned in plus run times, which help him cover plenty of ground in the outfield, where he can play all three positions with average defense. He’s been trotted out primarily in center, though below-average arm strength will likely limit him to left field as he adds more mass to his frame. This will put pressure on the bat to perform, but it’s hard to envision Leeper not producing in bunches.

His demographic and Stanford commitment may scare some suitors off, but based on talent level, Leeper has earned a first-round grade.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Field: 50 | Arm: 40

 

7. Sebastian Castillo – SS,3B

HT/WT: 6’0/195 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Byron Nelson (Justin, TX) | Commitment: Louisiana State | Projected Age: 18.8

Considered one of the more balanced profiles on this list, Castillo has a track record of success against elite competition over recent years.

In the box, he features a slightly open stance with a calm load and leg lift, followed by tight turns and premium bat speed. His swing decisions and contact ability also rank among the best for his age, evidenced by an in-zone whiff rate below 10% and multiple triple-digit exit velocities across premier circuit events. Castillo sees the baseball best on the outer half, unafraid to rifle balls to the opposite field while still letting his hands fly against pitches middle-in.

Defensively, he projects to stick on the dirt, showcasing good glove work and plus arm strength. Whether he stays at shortstop is up for debate, as his projection could push him to third base. Castillo is a fine runner, posting average home-to-first times and using his athleticism to create good angles on the left side of the infield.

Though most scouts view him primarily as a bat, he’s been up to 93 MPH on the mound, filling the zone with a tight, bullet-shaped breaking ball. Regardless, Castillo’s tools, headlined by his bat, rightfully place him near the top of our rankings. Castillo is committed to Louisiana State, led by head coach Jay Johnson.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 60

 

8. Juan Diaz – SS,2B

HT/WT: 6’0/180 | Bat/Throw: S/R | School: IMG Academy (Hialeah, FL) | Commitment: Florida | Projected Age: 18.10

He might not be the most imposing in stature, but Juan Diaz is one of the most frustrating at-bats in this entire prep class. A former Florida State commit, Diaz flipped to the Noles’ in-state rival from Gainesville in early September, though he may not make it to campus. The Miami native’s profile has a couple of standout qualities, at the plate and beyond.

His bat-to-ball is at the very top of the class, as evidenced by his sub-15% whiff rate on the summer circuit. In fact, he didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch during his weekend at East Coast Pro this year. You could argue he’s a top-three switch hitter in the entire prep class, with positive returns from both sides of the dish. His swing is fluid and definitely a little longer from the left side, where he’s gotten most of his reps to date, but it’s more compact and connected from the right side as well. That length as a left-handed hitter has created some issues getting to his pull side, but this profile seems designed to pepper the gaps regardless.

The upside isn’t confined to the bat either. He’s a plus runner, if not better, with sub-6.5-second 60-yard dash times this summer and multiple 60-grade home-to-first times from both sides of the plate.

It’s hard to fully own the heralded shortstop position at IMG Academy, but Diaz has shown this summer he can maintain that role through his senior season and into his professional career, despite likely having to split time with Max Hemenway this spring.

Overall, there’s a lot to like here. Diaz has quick hands, lots of twitch, and next-level instincts. That’ll be good enough to get him a seven-figure deal this summer alongside a couple of his teammates.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 70 | Field: 55 | Arm: 50

 

9. Lubin Rincon – SS

HT/WT: 6’3/185 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: The Bennett School (Pearland, TX) | Commitment: Texas | Projected Age: 18.9

One of the class’s more polished shortstop prospects, Rincon is a lean, wiry athlete with a gorgeous left-handed swing, and scouts believe there’s another version of his game waiting to be unlocked. He has a track record of hitting at big events, and while he’s not as flashy as some of his peers, his instincts and high IQ make him a high-floor prospect to follow.

Rincon’s swing is low-effort and balanced, with a simple, direct path to the ball and tight turns through the zone. His contact prowess stands out the most in his profile, dominating pitches inside the zone and adjusting well to secondary offerings. He makes smart swing decisions and will rack up plenty of walks, making him a legitimate on-base threat.

He’s not as twitchy as others, which limits his power projection moving forward, but he has solid bat speed and barrel feel. Most of that power will play to his pull side, and most believe he’ll grow into fringe-average power, if not average. He will need to incorporate consistent leverage in his swing to do that, as he tends to let his hands do most of the work right now.

On defense, Rincon projects as more of a consistent defender than a flashy one. His actions are smooth and controlled, and quick exchanges let his average arm strength play up. His tools may ultimately play better at second base, though he should stick at shortstop unless he comes across a better defender. A Texas commit, Rincon will likely climb the board if his tools improve during the spring.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50

 

10. Connor Salerno – LHP

HT/WT: 6’4/225 | Bat/Throw: R/L | School: Sun Valley (Indian Trail, NC) | Commitment: Mississippi State | Projected Age: 19.0

A well-built southpaw who has performed across multiple summers, Salerno enters the fall as the top southpaw in the prep class. He’s a unique arm to dissect because his quick-paced mechanics and herky-jerky motion create significant deception, even with head-whack and violence. Despite the noise in the operation, Salerno repeats his delivery extremely well, peppering the strike zone.

He sinks well into his back hip and drives himself down the mound, creating a lower arm slot with width at release. Salerno operated in the 92-95 MPH range this summer, peaking at 97 MPH in shorter spurts. The fastball shape leans more toward a dead zone profile (similar carry and run metrics), though his command and VAA traits will let the heater play up from its perceived velocity. It’s particularly impressive on the top rail, boasting a 40% whiff rate in the upper-third and higher. It’s an above-average heater right now, and with more velocity, it should become a plus pitch.

His best secondary is a low-to-mid-80s slider that mixes lift and sweep, and his feel and command of it stand out. It’s a tough pitch to pick up out of his hand, and he can land it in the lower quadrants of the zone, with a 71% strike rate and 56% whiff rate this summer. He relied on this one-two punch often, sprinkling in a fringe-average mid-80s cambio with alright shape and feel at this stage. Scouts would like to see it sharpened and used more to earn a starting role at the next level.

Given the size, command, and pure stuff, the Mississippi State commit should be a rotational piece once fully developed. If he makes it to Starkville, he would be eligible as a sophomore in 2029.

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Change: 45 | Command: 55

 

For the rest of Just Baseball’s Top 50 List - https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb-draft/2027-mlb-draft-top-50-prep-prospects/#entry-244782

Guest opinion becomes big question: DOES LINDOR BOUNCE-BACK IN 2027?



We value the input from our readers, and sometimes a reader comment becomes a source of great internal discussion.  Such was a recent input from reader 
Zozo, who compiled this impressive look into the hamate health of Francisco Lindor, and whether his surgery negatively impacted his 2026 season.

He wrote the following and left us with the question, "Does Lindor fully bounce back in 2027?"

If I had to choose I would keep Lindor and sign Michael king. Linder numbers will be better next season, when he is not injured. Here is an AI synopsis of all 3 of Lindor, Holliday and Carroll who had the same injury last year. They all had down years, they are both younger but numbers are similar. 


So give Lindor a break on all this trade/drop him IMO.


1. Francisco Lindor (New York Mets)

• The Season: Lindor endured a deeply frustrating year. After breaking his left hamate bone in February, he rushed back, only to suffer a left calf strain in late April that sidelined him for an additional two months.
• The Impact: His trademark power-speed combination evaporated, yielding just 21 home runs and a career-low 3 stolen bases. Uncharacteristically, the lingering effects also led to rare mental lapses and a noticeable defensive decline at shortstop.

2. Corbin Carroll (Arizona Diamondbacks)

• The Season: Of the three, Carroll handled the initial recovery the best. After fracturing his right hamate bone in early February, his elite physical conditioning allowed him to rapidly progress through rehab and remarkably make the Diamondbacks' Opening Day lineup.
• The Impact: While he showed great durability by playing 156 games, the classic post-hamate injury side effect—a lack of grip and wrist strength—capped his offensive ceiling. His batting average slipped to .239, and his overall OPS dropped by nearly 90 points from the previous year.

3. Jackson Holliday (Baltimore Orioles)

• The Season: Holliday had the most grueling year. The young infielder missed the first 48 games of the season following his February hamate surgery. He showed a brief flash of brilliance in July (.368 AVG), but heavily fatigued down the stretch.
• The Impact: His season came to an early end in September when separate left wrist inflammation revealed a partial tear, requiring a second, season-ending surgery. He finished his sophomore campaign with just 7 home runs in 98 games.

Francisco Lindor has had a career that was spotted with injuries, and he has had the tendency to try to return too early which Zozo pointed out. If the on-field recovery time is removed from the record, Lindor actually has a pretty good track record of bouncing back. At 33 years of age next season, he is a little older than most shortstops in their prime.  He brings a .270/.340/.812 career slash line into the 2027 season and is once again expected to be a team leader and major contributor to the top of the lineup.

Question: Will he bounce back and perform to career norms?

Reese Kaplan --- Were Stearns' Pitching Choices Any Better?


Let’s continue with the David Stearns positives...

Buckle up as we will skip over the Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien moves and shift our attention to pitching. Here we have to take our hat off in deference to the Stearns strategy, right...?

Well, topic number one would be the horrific contract for Sean Manaea.  As a refresher, Manaea is an eleven year veteran southpaw who actually owns a winning record of 85-74 with a middle of the road ERA of 4.16.  He has a moderate WHIP and generally exhibits good control.  

When he was brought on board for his first Mets season he turned in a good one.  He finished the year with a 12-6 record, a 3.47 ERA and finished 11th in the NL Cy Young voting.  

For that  effort he was paid $14.5 million on a single year free agent contract though it only cost the Mets $12 million as $2.5 was covered by an option paid by the San Francisco Giants.  His final number was a 2.9 WAR, a level he’d reached three other times in his career.  That turned out to be a good Stearns move.

Then came the 2025 off season.

Stearns bid against himself, more than doubling the salary to be paid to Manaea. Then to make matters worse he was going to take home his $25 million annual salary for not a single year but for three of them

How’d he do?

Let’s put it this way.  He was so bad when healthy that he was booted out of the starting rotation.  Between 2025 and 2026 Manaea has a losing record of 8-12 with a 5.03 ERA. That certainly does not look like $50 million well spent.  (And remember there’s another $25 million owed to him for 2027).  Stearns won’t make it to the World Series like his former employer making deals like that one.

Clay Holmes was a solid Stearns addition particularly when he made the successful transition from effective reliever to effective starter.  The same cannot be said of now Rays starting pitcher Freddy Peralta who crumbled horribly in New York.  That’s yet another negative outcome of a Sttearns roster decision.

Now Kodai Senga’s foibles as a starting pitcher cannot be blamed on Stearns as his contract was signed prior to the flight to the Big Apple for the former Brewers head baseball honcho.  

The way the season ended with Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton turning in credible performances on a regular basis.  Some of the other younger pitchers are still works in progress.   

The bullpen was another up and down part of the Stearns roster construction.  On the up side were most definitely Brooks Raley, AJ Minter, Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazoban.  Naturally none of them are Mets anymore.


On the down side you had Edwin Diaz replacement Devin Williams who turned in his second consecutive subpar season, as well as a revolving door of AAAA personnel who were not able to fill the housecleaning vacancies created by the trade deadline moves.  

10/23/26

MACK – 2027 MLB Draft - An Early Mock From MLB.com

 


1. Royals: Dylan Seward, SS, Norco HS (Calif.)

Seward is a dynamic switch-hitting shortstop committed to Tennessee. He’s a double-plus runner with outstanding bat-to-ball skills from both sides of the plate. He has more than enough range and instincts to play short for a long time. He might be only 5-foot-11, but there’s plenty of impact to come.

 

2. A’s: Brendan Lawson, SS, Florida

Lawson was a solid high school prospect in 2024, but his strong commitment to Florida led to him being drafted in the 19th round, so he headed to Gainesville. He’s hit well there, getting to his power a lot more as a sophomore (19 homers, .699 SLG). He plays short for the Gators but probably moves to third as a pro.

 

3. Rockies: Tomas Valincius, LHP, Mississippi State

Valincius spent his freshman year at Virginia, then followed coach Brian O’Connor to Mississippi State and was one of the best college arms in the country in 2026 (12.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). He does it with a very good three-pitch mix: a fastball that sits around 95 mph, a mid-80s slider with depth that missed bats at a 48-percent clip, according to Synergy, and an effective mid-80s changeup.

 

4. Mets: Landon Hairston, OF, Arizona State

A Golden Spikes Award finalist this year, the son of former big leaguer Scott Hairston could give the family a fourth-generation big leaguer. Hairston had one of the best seasons of any college hitter in the nation, finishing his sophomore year with a .400/.509/.860 line to go along with 28 homers, 11 steals and more walks than strikeouts.

 

5. Angels: Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State

Whitney might have topped this list as the best college arm in the class had it not been for a torn UCL that required a hybrid Tommy John/internal brace procedure. When he’s healthy, he comes at hitters with a fastball up to 101 mph and three excellent secondaries in his slider, curve and changeup. It seems unlikely that he’s going to pitch competitively in 2027, but he could be ready to throw bullpens for teams as the Draft approaches.

 

6. Orioles: Gavin Kelly, C/2B, West Virginia

Kelly is a big reason why West Virginia made it to Omaha this year, slashing .382/.477/.725. He’s caught and played second mostly for the Mountaineers, but he’s also played plenty of outfield, using his plus speed well on both sides. There’s plenty of power to tap into, as evidenced by his 19 homers this past season.

 

7. Reds: Chris Levonas, RHP, Wake Forest

The Brewers selected Levonas No. 67 overall in 2024, but he opted to head to Wake Forest instead of signing. He’ll be one of the top college arms to consider, especially if he builds off his 10-3, 2.82 ERA, 116/33 K/BB, .171 BAA sophomore season. His fastball sat at 97 mph this year, and he uses a curve and cutter-like-slider behind it.

 

8. Tigers: Tague Davis, 1B, Louisville

Do you like power? Then Davis might be the guy for you. He led all of Division 1 with 34 homers in 2026 while slashing .355/.443/.848 for Louisville. There’s some swing-and-miss he’ll have to work on, but he fits the corner infielder masher profile well.

 

9. Blue Jays: Connor Salerno, LHP, Sun Valley HS (NC)

We interrupt this run on college players for the top high school arm in the class. Committed to Mississippi State, Salerno features a mid-90s fastball, can spin a breaking ball and has good feel for a change, all while competing well in the strike zone consistently.

 

10. Giants: Chase Fuller, SS/RHP, Lincoln HS (Fla.)

Fuller’s father, Corey, was an NFL defensive back, and Chase offers similar athleticism and strength. He’s got a terrific right-handed swing and has produced well. Most seem to prefer him as a position player, but he’s up to the low 90s on the mound, too.

Reese Kaplan -- So What Good Things Did David Stearns Do?


One of my friends recently posed a challenge to me to evaluate the positive things David Stearns has done for the Mets.

Hmmm...

Well, let’s start with run prevention.  By year’s end in 2026 the Mets outfield was markedly better than it had been in the recent past.  You’ve got to give him credit for that improvement, right?

Maybe not.

First of all, right fielder Carson Benge was indeed a revelation not only with his bat but also with his glove and his arm, too.  No one is taking potshots at Benge for anything he accomplished on the field.  There is, however, a bit of history that many people have simply not acknowledged.

We all knew that AA player Benge had a cup of coffee in AAA where over the course of 90 ABs hit a cringe worthy .178.  He was going to get a long look in Spring Training, but at the time there was a veteran around named Mike Tauchman who’d played in the majors for the Rockies, Giants, Yankees, Cubs and White Sox and was was already penciled in as the spare oufielder with Tyrone Taylor.  

The man unfortunately suffered a torn meniscus in a March 21st game which required surgery to be performed five days later.  He was then gone and it opened up a spot for Benge to make the Opening Day roster though it had not been the David Stearns plan. 

Well, it had to be better with A.J. Ewing, right?

For reasons unknown to rational thinking baseball fans, writers and executives the Mets made a puzzling deal to pry loose the overpriced and injury prone Luis Robert from the White Sox.  He was going to anchor the defense out in center field while providing ample home run power and stolen base speed.  As we all know, that scenario never quite unfolded as intended.

While Robert was on the IL the Mets reached onto the AAA roster to pluck speedy Ewing to take over as a part time player in the majors to help fill the void.  While Ewing didn’t exactly hit the ground running with the offensive side of his game but his defensive acumen was revealed almost from day one.  

He quickly went from spare part to starting center fielder which enabled the Mets to cut ties with Robert to correct this colossal failure.  So that move wasn’t apparently a planned success by David Stearns either. 

We will give credit to Stearns for the 26th guy on the bench who turned into a starting first baseman in the form of Jared Young.  When he made the roster no one was overjoyed as this now 30 year old AAAA level player had failed to establish himself as a starting caliber offensive tool during his trials in the majors dating back to his 26 year old rookie season with the Cubs in 2022.  

During 2024 in AAA he hit 21 HRs and drove in 72 while hitting a robust .310 in just over a half season’s worth of ABs. 

From there he wandered off for an appearance in Korea and then split time between the various levels of the Mets minor league organization, finally reaching Citifield in 2025 where he hit a lackluster .188.  Consequently a 300 AB Mets season with 9 HRs and 39 RBIs with a .266 average was unexpected, to say the least.  

Still, as much of a surprise as it was, not too many people are confident the Mets have anything more than a decent bench player for 2027.  Stearns does get credit for this 2025 addition.

MACK - Chain Position Analysis - Third Base

 


MACK – Chain Position Analysis - Third Base

 

We move further right to my old home… third base. 

We just left analyzing a position with tremendous depth (shortstop)… now we move on to one that seems to be depending on one future player and a bunch of also-rans.

Let’s jump right in.

 

RED PROSPECTS

 

MLB/Mets - Bo Bichette – (28) – RHH - let’s face it… if the Mets could secure the services of this guy for the next three seasons, none of us would have to worry about this position until the next decade. Bichette got off to the kind of start many new players do, but by the end of the season, he proved to all Mets fans how talented he is. Right now, where he plays next season is up for grabs. 

If he comes back, the immediate future of the other RED PROSPECTS listed here comes to a screeching halt. 

If not, you could see him on opening day. 

Either way, this looks like quite the one-two punch.

 

AAA/Syracuse – Jefferson Rojas – (21) – RHH - Thank you, David Stearns. IMO, you couldn’t have gotten a better return for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor. Rojas’ 2026 season consisted of 27-HR, 93-RBI, 21-SB, .274/.338/.505/.843. Played 35 games for the Mets… hit 12-HR. That’s good, right? Hit .280 for AA/Binghamton and then .308 for AAA/Syracuse. .929-OPS for AA/Binghamton, followed by 1.037 for AAA/Syracuse. 32-K in 144 Mets at-bats. 

Only downside here is only 26-AB at the AAA level. I simply wouldn’t rush him whether Bo comes back or not. Let him play upstate up to the ASB then show him the way to where David Wright played. 

This looks like a great trade.

 

BLUE PROSPECTS

 

MLB/Mets – Christopher Morel – (22) – RHH - also plays DH, 1B, and OF – signed with Mets on July 1, 2026 after being released by the Marlins. Dominated in AAA/Syracuse (.321/.382/.716, 1.098), 12-HR in 109-AB (only 28-K). 30-AB for the Mets (.200). Look, you can’t ignore a four digit OPS at any level, especially the one just below the majors. Morel was a breath of fresh air and offers this team utility versatility. 

He played every field position last season other than catcher. Having him on your major league 26 opens up at least two other slots. 

Me? He opens in Queens next season.

 

AAA/Syracuse – Christian Arroyo – (31) – RHH – also plays 2B & SS – has already produced 2.1 MLB WAR – played 2026 exclusively for AAA/Syracuse: 237-AB, 44-K, 8-HR, 45-RBI, 18-BB, .278/.331/.435/.765. Another pleasant surprise from someone signed to fill a slot. Me? 

A perfect AAAA infielder to play everyday at the AAA level and keep fresh in case of any MLB injuries going forward. Needs to stay healthy himself (2026 wrist injury).

 

AA/Binghamton – Jacob Reimer – (22) – RHH – also plays 1B (well) – 4th rd. 2022 - let’s face it… Reimer should be a RED Prospect, but… he isn’t due to his inability to prove his cred. I’ve seen him as high as the 5th Mets prospect. I currently don’t have him in my top 20. Played four levels in 2026 but primarily for AA/Binghamton: 297-AB, 87-K, 8-HR, 40-RBI, 45-BB, .232/.335/.384/.719. .280 last 90 days - .179 vs. LHP  

I’m sorry. Stats like this aren’t worthy of being ranked as the 5th top team prospect. Reimer needs to show me a lot more before I even consider believing in him again.

 

A/St. Lucie – Jake Ogden – (22) – RHH – also plays SS & 2B – UDFA 2026 – batted .315 for the University of Miami in 2026… .336 in 2025. Have no idea why no one drafted him. Our find. Only 41 professional at-bats (St. Lucie) this year: .268/.404/.366/.770. I know he didn’t play much, but I’m replacing Colin Houck in A+/Brooklyn with this guy. Houck? Might drop so fast he’s quickly forgotten. Ogden could make things interesting in a few years.

 

ALMOST PROSPECTS

 

FCL/Mets – Roybert Herrera – (19) – LHH – signed as IFA 1-15-2024 - also plays 1B & 2B – played 2026 exclusively for the FCL Mets: 86-AB, 25-K, 1-HR, 15-RBI, 13-BB, .244/.359/.314/.673. Solid .285 season in 2025 for the DSLO Mets team. Spent time on 7-day IL in 2026. Has shown contact ability, some power potential, and speed. Gets on base additionally through walks and HBPs. Raw. Gained experience last year that I see him applying this season for one of the Florida teams, if not both.

 

MACK SPIN: 

There is a lot of nice things I can say here about all of these players, but the bottom line is that the future of this position for the Mets is currently dependent one player (Rojas). If he goes down with a season-ending or career-threatening injury, the Mets will have to turn to one of their middle infield prospects and convert that player to third or look for someone not currently on the roster.

As I said earlier, everything would be A+ if Bo stayed around for three years. However, this post graded out that he doesn’t. Too much to be determined on one future prospect that hasn’t played one major league inning, against major league pitching.

 

RATING - B




10/22/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - Justin Armbruester

 


MACK – Let’s Revisit - Justin Armbruester

Justin Armbruester is a right-handed pitcher in the New York Mets organization (currently with Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies). Background and Path to the Mets
  • Born October 21, 1998 (age 27), in Bellevue, WA. 6'4", 235 lbs. Throws/bats right.
  • Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 12th round (347th overall) of the 2021 MLB Draft out of the University of New Mexico (Mountain West Pitcher of the Year in 2021). Signed for $100,000. Earlier college time at Pacific Lutheran.
  • Progressed through the Orioles system (High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie, Triple-A Norfolk). Was a mid-tier Orioles prospect (top ~20-30 at peaks) known for strike-throwing and a developing arsenal, but struggled in a full Triple-A season in 2024 (5-11, 7.54 ERA in 119.1 IP).
  • Underwent right lat surgery in April 2025 after a brief strong start in relief for Norfolk; missed most of 2025.
  • Selected by the Mets in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 Draft on December 10, 2025, and assigned to Syracuse. Spent early 2026 on the IL recovering, then rehabbed through St. Lucie (A), Brooklyn (A+), and Binghamton before being assigned to Double-A Binghamton in mid-June 2026 (primarily in a relief role).
2026 - AA/Binghamton - 
  • 14-apps, 1-0, 0.59, 0.85, 15.1-IP, 3-BB, 20-K
Pitch Repertoire / ArsenalArmbruester has a multi-pitch mix that has evolved over time (four-seam heavy, with added cutters, sweepers/sliders, curve, and occasional changeup). Recent/tracking data and team notes highlight:

  • Primary: Four-seam fastball (typically 91–93 mph, can touch higher in short outings; rides with good vertical break/hop and plays up due to arm action/deception).
  • Cutter (mid-80s, ~85–87 mph range noted in team notes; effective vs. lefties).
  • Sweeper / slider variants (upper-70s to mid-80s; sweeper often ~78–83 mph with significant horizontal break; a tighter slider also appears in some tracking).
  • Curveball (mid-to-high 70s, ~76–78 mph).
  • Changeup (used less frequently, mid-80s).

Earlier scouting (Orioles years) graded the fastball and slider/cutter around average-to-plus potential (especially the slider), with the curve and change as developmental pieces for lefties. 

He has shown good spin aptitude and willingness to refine shapes (e.g., adding sweep, cutter, curve, and experimenting with splitter-like options in the past). Stuff+ metrics in tracking data have generally been around average or slightly above across the mix. 

He profiles more as a potential multi-inning reliever or back-end starter type depending on command and secondary consistency, with a history of filling the zone when healthy.


RVH - Building a Sustainable Winner — Part 1

 

What Milwaukee Has Built and Why Mets Fans Should Care

For Mets fans, Milwaukee is a useful place to begin a discussion about sustained winning. David Stearns provides an obvious connection, but the more interesting question extends beyond any one executive: how does an organization assemble enough talent to win today while preserving the ability to compete tomorrow?

The Brewers offer a compelling case. They have combined an excellent major-league team with affordable core production and a prospect pipeline that still contains significant upside. They also have injuries, uneven depth and expensive decisions ahead.

That combination deserves a closer look. Before assigning credit for how Milwaukee reached this point, we should establish what it actually possesses.

Start with the results

Over the past three regular seasons, Milwaukee has won 293 games and lost 193, a .603 winning percentage and an average of nearly 98 wins. All three seasons produced division titles.

Season

Record

Run differential

Postseason result

2024

93–69

+136

Lost Wild Card Series to the Mets

2025

97–65

+172

Reached the NLCS

2026

103–59

+214

Reached the World Series; outcome pending

The run differential is particularly useful. Milwaukee’s margin between runs scored and allowed has increased each year. That strengthens the argument that the team’s success reflects sustained quality rather than simply a favorable run of close games.

October matters, too. The Brewers have progressed from an early exit to consecutive trips beyond the Division Series, including this year’s pennant. The World Series remains ahead at this article’s October 18 cutoff.

Sources: MLB standings, historical records and 2026 NLCS result.

Affordable talent creates room to compete

The clearest illustration of Milwaukee’s roster economics is a group of six contributors.

Player

2026 FanGraphs WAR

Listed salary ($M)

Estimated market value ($M)*

Jacob Misiorowski

6.6

$0.79

$56.5

Brice Turang

5.9

$4.15

$50.2

Jackson Chourio

4.6

$7.25

$39.4

Jake Bauers

3.6

$2.70

$30.9

Garrett Mitchell

3.1

$0.95

$25.9

William Contreras

3.0

$9.40

$25.8

Combined, before rounding

26.9

$25.24

$228.7

WAR estimates a player’s contribution above replacement-level performance. It is imperfect, but useful for comparing production across different roles.

Estimated market value applies an illustrative $8.5 million per WAR to unrounded 2026 production, the midpoint of an $8–9 million range. This values the completed season’s output; it is not a forecast of what these players would receive in contracts. FanGraphs’ 2026 free-agent analysis found higher prices for stronger projected performers, so $8.5 million is a conservative comparison benchmark rather than a universal market rate.

Milwaukee paid approximately $940,000 per WAR for this six-player core. At our $8.5 million benchmark, its $25.2 million in listed salaries supported approximately $228.7 million of production value, an implied $203.5 million above salary. That is extraordinary value. Across the $8–9 million range, the production value is approximately $215–242 million.

These figures illustrate the value of the core’s realized performance. The comparison covers listed major-league salaries and excludes acquisition and development costs. It is also a deliberately selected group of successful players, so the roughly $1 million per WAR figure should not be mistaken for the cost efficiency of the entire Brewers roster.

The broader point is that affordable production gives an organization room to absorb injuries, disappointing contracts and other mistakes. Milwaukee’s estimated 2026 payroll is approximately $141.9 million. How that spending is distributed matters as much as the total.

Sources: FanGraphs RosterResource and payroll database.

Depth requires more than names

Our inventory covers 38 occupied 40-man roster spots, four additional pitchers on the 60-day injured list and the organization’s top 30 FanGraphs prospects. After removing overlap, that represents 70 players.

The useful question is how many can fill a particular need when it arises.

Milwaukee has several routes to starting innings behind Misiorowski. Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser have contributed, while Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan and Chad Patrick offer further possibilities. However, moving a pitcher into the rotation also removes him from the bullpen pool. Injured pitchers such as Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester cannot simply be penciled into a healthy rotation.

The position-player picture has similar distinctions. There are alternatives behind the primary catchers, infielders and outfielders, but the quality of those alternatives varies. Having another outfielder available does not necessarily replace the offense lost when a productive starter is unavailable.

My assessment is that Milwaukee has useful depth, with pitching availability and offensive replacement quality deserving the closest attention.

The next wave still has value

FanGraphs’ top 30 includes five prospects graded at 50 future value or better: Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Brady Ebel, Tyson Hardin and Jeferson Quero. Made leads the group with a 65 grade. These are scouting assessments of future value, not guarantees of major-league production.

That is an important asset for a team already winning at the highest level. Milwaukee has potential contributors developing behind its current roster.

The timing is less certain. Made, Peña and Ebel concentrate considerable upside in young shortstop prospects. Their development could eventually create positional choices or trade opportunities. Hardin and Quero offer nearer-term possibilities at pitching and catcher.

The organization cannot assume every prospect arrives on schedule or fills the position that happens to need help. The value lies in having multiple opportunities to develop useful players, then making sound decisions as those opportunities become clearer.

Source: FanGraphs Updated Board, retrieved October 18.

Winning today changes tomorrow’s decisions

The six-player core will not remain equally inexpensive, and its production will not move in a straight line.

Turang and Mitchell face arbitration. Contreras has a club-option decision. Bauers is approaching free agency. Milwaukee must decide how much to pay for future production after benefiting from excellent current results.

Bauers and Mitchell illustrate why those evaluations require care. Mitchell’s 2026 offensive production was close to his career rate; increased playing time helped make the season more valuable. Bauers’ offensive performance was substantially above his career level. Their risks differ, even though both delivered excellent returns on their salaries.

Chourio provides contractual continuity. Misiorowski provides exceptional pitching upside. Neither removes the need for alternatives when a player gets hurt or falls short of his best season.

Sources: Mitchell, Bauers and contract status.

What this means for the Mets

My initial conclusion is that Milwaukee has built a credible foundation for sustained contention. The evidence is the combination of results, affordable major-league talent and remaining prospect upside.

The organization still has work to do. It needs dependable innings, sensible retention decisions and successful player development. A strong farm system becomes useful to the major-league team when prospects contribute or help acquire players who do.

For the Mets, the question is how greater financial resources can strengthen those same capabilities. Spending can retain valuable players, purchase depth and reduce the number of uncertainties a team must accept. The eventual comparison should assess what those resources produce in both present performance and future strength.

That gives us the central question for this series: 

How effectively does an organization turn its resources into sustained winning?

Milwaukee’s current position is an encouraging answer. Understanding how it replenishes that position is the next step.

Next: How Milwaukee keeps replenishing its roster, and which decisions have made the greatest difference.