MACK – New Met: LHRP Phillip Abner

 

Philip James Abner is a left-handed relief pitcher (throws and bats left).

He currently joined the New York Mets organization after being claimed off waivers from the San Francisco Giants in late September 2026.

Born May 5, 2002, in Charlotte, North Carolina (age 24); 6'1", 230 lbs.

College: University of Florida; also played Cape Cod League (Falmouth Commodores, all-star in 2022).

Drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 6th round (175th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft.

MLB debut: September 19, 2025, with the Diamondbacks (struck out Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh in his debut).

Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks (2025–2026), San Francisco Giants (2026), New York Mets (claimed Sept. 2026).

MLB stats (through mid/late September 2026): 18 appearances (all relief), 0-0, 6.75 ERA, 22.2 IP, 15 SO, 14 BB, 1.76 WHIP. 

2026 split: 13 G, 7.11 ERA, 19.0 IP, 10 SO.

He has stronger minor-league numbers (career minors roughly 2.93–3.28 ERA range with solid strikeout rates around 25–28% in recent years), including work at Triple-A Reno/Sacramento in the hitter-friendly PCL. The Mets appear interested in the minor-league track record and lefty depth.

Pitch Repertoire

Four-seam fastball (FF): ~55–56% usage, avg. 90.6 mph. Primary pitch; below-average velocity and results so far (higher hard-hit rates allowed).

Curveball (CU): ~18–20.5%, avg. ~81.2 mph.

Slider (SL): ~16–18%, avg. ~80.5 mph.

Changeup (CH): ~7–7.4%, avg. ~83.3 mph.

Sinker (SI): Rare (~0.3%), ~89.5 mph.

In 2025 (limited sample), he leaned more heavily on the four-seamer (~73%) + slider, with less curve/changeup. Overall career mix is roughly 59% fastball (mostly four-seam) and 41% secondaries.

He generates average-to-modest movement and spin on the breaking pitches, with the curve and slider providing the main complementary looks. Whiff rates and overall results have been modest in the majors so far (career K% ~14%, BB% elevated), consistent with the velocity profile. Better control and sequencing of the secondaries (especially the curve) have shown more promise in the minors.

In short: lefty reliever with a lower-90s fastball and a multi-pitch mix (primarily four-seam, curve, slider, and changeup) who relies more on deception/variety than pure stuff. 

The Mets claimed him as organizational depth after his short, rocky MLB stretches with Arizona and San Francisco.

Paul Articulates – The Alvarez Enigma

Francisco Alvarez is out of control. Again.

The former top prospect with undeniable power and a strong arm has now been in the major leagues for four full seasons plus his abbreviated call-up year.  He has also been back in the minor leagues for many injury rehabilitation trips and other remedial tune-ups.

He is that "can’t miss" prospect that always seems to miss.  Why?  He cannot control his passion to make the big play.  Huge swings and misses on balls that he could have driven into the opposite field gap.  Wild throws on the 1-in-100 chance that he can gun down a runner.  This is all hero behavior in a game that much more often rewards patience. 

We have seen him come back from rehab assignments with a fresh new outlook – better appearances at the plate with more selectivity on pitches to swing at; better blocking of pitches in the dirt.  We have also seen that control reversed as soon as success starts creeping in.  

It seems that each big home run is followed by several at bats where he takes mighty swings at balls that cannot be reached.  One caught stealing is followed by unwarranted pick-off throws that eventually find their way into the outfield.  Pitchers exploit his inability to lay off the high fastball above the strike zone and sliders that begin as strikes and dive out of the zone.

The Mets are faced with a tough dilemma: stick with the guy that has immense talent, or part with the guy who has repeatedly shown that he does not have the emotional maturity to harness that talent.  

In his best days, he looks like the player that was projected to be a star catcher for many years to come.  One could use examples of his great games to argue that with a little maturity and the right coaching, he can fulfill the past projections and become a threat in the middle of the lineup and a reliable backstop on defense.

In his worst days, like yesterday’s loss to the Nationals, he hurts the team with poor at-bats in critical situations and costs the team runs with defensive miscues.  One could use the recurring regressions to argue that he should be packaged in a trade and replaced by a steadier influence behind the plate like Luis Torrens.

Either way, Francisco Alvarez will find a way to haunt the Mets.

The Mets’ farm system has shown some very good depth recently, with several promising pitchers like Scott, McLean, Thornton, and Tong coming up.  Their middle-infield depth has soared in the post-trade deadline months.  Similarly, they have developed some very high quality outfield talent like Benge, Ewing, and Morabito.  But the catching progression leaves much to be desired, so there is no heir apparent to Alvarez in the pipeline.  

Yes, we have seen some positive steps by Kevin Parada recently and there have been flashes of brilliance by Chris Suero, but neither seems MLB ready right now.  Hayden Senger is a top notch defensive catcher but despite a better year in 2026 is still not a bat that the team is looking for.  You have to go all the way down to St. Lucie before finding a star-caliber catching prospect in Yovanny Rodriguez but he has years of development in front of him.  There is not an in-house solution for next year.

So the choices are not clear, but the Mets have several months to think about the high stakes risk-reward trade-off with their catching position.

Reese Kaplan -- Long Overdue Progressive Mets Decision Making

Given the steady, sad progress of the 2026 season and the mediocrity of the entire David Stearns reign as part of the Mets organization, it was expected to be a slow and clumsy off season while the club took the many necessary steps to try to right the cellar dwelling ship after the failure of nearly every Stearns move yet again. 

Imagine the surprise, therefore, that the same baseball executive who did absolutely nothing when the wheels came off while it was not yet summer actually instead took progressive action to hire not just an on-the-field manager for the losing ball club but also a front office right hand man to help apply a bit more structure and second guessing personnel moves which thus far have not proven to be one of the current POBO’s skill sets. 

On the former, I felt as if I was standing alone in expressing the opinion that another rookie manager was not the most prudent path for the Mets to take.  Even deeper in that earlier expressed sentiment I felt as if I was standing all alone when I suggested that the early returns on Andy Green were indeed what had been missing since Buck Showalter was pushed out the clubhouse door. 

Consequently when Carlos Beltran was pretty upfront about not wanting to step into a managerial role, the faintest flicker of hope that instead of interviewing every other unemployed managerial candidate for the 2027 team, they instead pushed ahead with the overdue step of pushing Andy Green into multiyear security as the no longer “Interim” designated title of his role for the Mets.  

Saying my reaction was stunned would be underselling the intelligence and shock at the club not only doing the right thing but also taking full advantage of its unparalleled exclusivity of dealing one-on-one with the man who nearly brought respectability back to what David Stearns nearly ruined through a great many roster actions and inactions.

The other side of the coin was the Steve Cohen announcement that the team in recognition of what had gone completely off the rails since Stearns was brought on board was planning to reinforce the caliber of the front office.  At the time it was not announced whether the club was planning to designate someone to assume the role of GM abandoned by Billy Eppler after the faux injury scandal or if they instead were going to construct some kind of committee support system to buttress the many things Stearns kept getting wrong.

A day before the actual hiring, the word slipped out that a former Stearns Cleveland Indians coworker was considered a front runner for the Mets gaping need after having successfully worked the roster for the Minnesota Twins.  Derek Falvey had ascended to the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer before being terminated.  He had the track record and rapport with Stearns that made his possible inclusion a shrewd and understandable possibility. 

As it turns out Falvey has not been named General Manager in the traditional sense despite the glaring need.  His new title is Senior Advisor for Baseball Operations reporting directly to David Stearns.  At this point no one can predict if this change means Stearns will do a deeper and wider dive on roster decisions while Falvey takes over some of the behind-the-scenes activities that someone at this level needs to handle.  

Still, whichever way it goes, it would appear that for a second time Stearns got the wheels spinning earlier than anyone anticipated given his track record of lethargy when the plans he constructed failed to pay dividends.  It seems like a good choice bringing in an experienced young man to help reshape things.

Now going into the 2027 season the primary concern for the team is more likely the expected work interruption than any specific player names to fill the great many vacancies on the failed 2026 roster.  Both issues will surface for sure, but right now many of us who had lost nearly all faith in the Mets organization got a tiny dose of hope return with the unexpected and necessary changes that arrived during the final week of September.  

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHRP - Saul Garcia

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHRP - Saul Garcia

Saul Garcia is a 23-year-old right-handed relief pitcher in the New York Mets organization, currently with Triple-A Syracuse after a recent promotion from Double-A Binghamton on August 27, 2026.

mlb.com

Background

• Born June 11, 2003, in Naguanagua, Venezuela.
• Height/weight: Listed at 6'0", 180 lbs (some sources note ~6'2").
• Bats/Throws: Right/Right.
• Signed by the Mets as an international free agent on June 12, 2021.
• First cousin of former Mets (and current Giants) infielder Wilmer Flores; the families were close during his childhood in Venezuela.
  viralsportsnews.net

He started his pro career as a starter with mixed results and elevated walk rates in the lower minors (DSL, FCL, Single-A St. Lucie, some High-A). The Mets moved him to the bullpen in 2025, which unlocked his stuff and produced strong results. He has also pitched in the Arizona Fall League (2024) and Venezuelan Winter League (Navegantes del Magallanes).Recent Performance

• 2025 (High-A Brooklyn + late Double-A Binghamton): 1.70 ERA, 76 strikeouts in 47.2 innings across 38 appearances, 6 saves, opponents hit .173. High strikeout rates (well over 30% at points).
• 2026 (Double-A Binghamton): 
  viralsportsnews.net

Career minor-league numbers (approximate through 2026 AA): High strikeout totals relative to innings, with ERA in the mid-4s overall reflecting earlier starter years. He is viewed as an emerging high-leverage/strikeout arm one step from the majors; a strong Triple-A showing could put him in contention for a late 2026 or 2027 big-league look.Pitch Repertoire / ArsenalGarcia’s profile is a classic power-arm bullpen mix built around swing-and-miss stuff in shorter outings:

• Four-seam fastball: Sits mid-90s with late life/ride. Earlier data (as a starter) also showed a sinker around 92–94 mph with armside run (used heavily then). The heater generates the foundational velocity and plays up in relief.
• Slider: Mid-to-upper 80s with sharp downward (vertical) break. This has been his best secondary and generates elite/high whiff rates. Earlier tracking (2023–2024 Single-A) showed it around 80–84 mph with gyro/downer characteristics and solid Stuff+ grades.
• Changeup: Rounds out the mix (used less frequently). Provides a change-of-pace option, often with armside fade.
  viralsportsnews.net

In lower levels (tracked data from 2023–2024), usage leaned heavily toward the fastball/sinker (~55–65%) and slider (~25–35%), with the changeup in the 3–11% range. Stuff+ grades on the fastball/sinker and slider were near or above average in those samples. The move to relief has emphasized the high-velocity fastball + sharp slider combo for elevated strikeout rates (frequently 30%+).

Overall, he profiles as a potential late-inning reliever with missing-bats stuff if the command continues to firm up against higher-level hitters. He remains a developmental prospect but one of the Mets’ more interesting strikeout-oriented arms near the upper minors.

Reese Kaplan - Who Do You Keep?

Where the biggest challenge occurs for the front office is deterimining who is not worth keeping around to be a part of the Mets future.  Obviously the previously run list of disappointments all could migrate to this list, though some of them like Marcus Semien are all but unmovable given the size of his remaining payroll obligation for two years and the substandard performance with the bat the past few seasons.  Others are difficult to move strictly based upon what they have done (or not done) on the diamond.

Then there are the category of other players who look like they could have value but not necessarily as a starter for the Mets now and in the future.  Let’s have a look.

Francisco Alvarez is still just 25 years old and although he’s been around quite a while already many folks have grown frustrated by his lack of consistency at the plate and lack of progress behind the dish.  He’s a career .229 hitter whose greatest attribute is power.  Given a 162-game standard schedule he’d be good for 26 HRs and 71 RBIs.  

The problem is his injury history hasn’t left him available for nearly that amount of time and many express his tendency to try to take every pitch over the fence instead of learning to make better contact overall.  

Defensively he’s uneven to say the least and pitchers have performed to a 4.11 ERA which is not outstanding.  Some feel it is time to move on from him though the uneven but intriguing Chris Suero hasn’t established consistency at the minor league level yet.

Luis Torrens by the naked eye is a far superior defensive player to Alvarez but the results with him behind the dish are not markedly better with a pitcher’s ERA of 3.96.  As a hitter he is less productive than is Alvarez and the question becomes if the club is better off with the better defender and pitch caller at the expensive of a lifetime .230 hitter who would average 12 HRs and 53 RBIs if he played every day as the starting catcher.  

He’s perfectly acceptable in a backup role but wouldn’t be contending for All Star status if he became the number one signal caller.  Already age 30, he’s not likely becoming markedly better mid-career as a hitter.  Some question whether the Mets should deal one of these two catchers away and leave the other as a backup.  Alvarez would likely bring a greater return given his HR power.

Ronny Mauricio has struggled with his health over the past few seasons and although he shows some very good intervals of both power and speed he has never had the opportunity to play regularly for an extended period of time in the majors to see if he can adjust to the higher level of pitching.

Given the age of Semien, the defensive questions about Bo Bichette (if he returns to play 3B), then shuffling off Mauricio in a trade may not make a whole lot of sense.  However, it does not appear at first glance that he has the opportunity to become a regular for the Mets.  You’d expect to see him floated in some prospective trade packages once the World Series ends.

Nick Morabito and A.J. Ewing bring back flashbacks of when the Mets had the legs of Vince Coleman and Roger Cedeno.  They pretty much earn their keep with what they can do on the basepaths to drive opposing pitchers and catchers crazy with their ability to steal bases.  Unlike Mookie Wilson and Jose Reyes who turned themselves into credible hitters who offered up more than strong legs, the question remains about what to expect from this pair of outfielders (or possibly second baseman in the case of Ewing).  

Morabito is in fact a career .281 minor league hitter with modest power who strikes out a bit more than you’d expect from a contact hitter.  Ewing is an even better .290 hitter working is way up to the majors at just age 21 and his initial trial in New York is .254.  With maturity he could improve but he’s got to steal a whole lot of bases to remain in the starting lineup with no power and a lot of strikeouts.  Either one could be moved in the right deals, but it would take a bit of hard swallowing to do so.

Christopher Morel, MJ Melendez and Christian Pache are not going to net anything much in trade and likely would be fringe 26th player types if they make the team at all.

Here comes a tough one.  He would not net a huge return individually, but as part of a package he would most certainly open the eyes of some fellow GMs.  First baseman Ryan Clifford reminds a lot of people of Dave Kingman in that he is an all-or-nothing type of slugger who struggles mightily with strikeouts.  

This past season is highly forgettable for him despite having knocked the ball over the fence 18 times in just over 400 ABs but did so while sitting well below the Mendoza line at .188.  Yes, at age 22 it’s possible he can correct his offensive approach but now with Billy Amick in house and producing significantly more power you in effect have carbon copies of the same problem.  

At this point Clifford would seem to be someone the Mets might dangle to other clubs to open up Syracuse 1B for a full season of Amick.

MACK - Chain Position Analysis - Catcher

Okay... 

We now move into a series I love doing every off-season. It is my own, personal, no-holds-barred analysis of each position in the chain, including who is on the parent squad. It ends with my current rating for this position. 

Normally, I do this after the season is over, but for some stupid arse reason, I booked this series a week early, so I will be using stats here that are still going on. Yes, I am too lazy to change the booking dates. It's been that kind of a season for me.

The first position we will look at is catcher. The stats used are through 9/19.

The parent squad has 24/year old Francisco Alvarez (.229) and 30/year old Luiz Torrens (.242).  They have combined this year for 25 home runs and 80 runs batted in. Torrens has proven to be one of the top defensive catchers in the game and Alvarez came close to a totally healthy season. Lastly, Torrens is under contract through 2028 and Alvy won't be eligible for free agency until 2033.

On the surface, one would say we should move on here, but that's not how this works. In the past, I have used a batting average of .250 as the minimally accepted level for a ballplayer. Lastly, it's hard to find more than a couple of handfuls of batters hitting above .300, so I have dropped that low bar to .240. Still, Alvarez is far below this minimal standard while, at the same time, he isn't even hitting 20 homers a season. This is far from acceptable for a 'major league power hitter', so we have to keep looking for an alternative here.

Torrens will always give you top defense, and the pitchers love him, but unless you are just willing to yield his bat here, he offers nothing more than a great backup and unday regular.

Currently, I only have one RED PROSPECT catcher on this team and that is A/St. Lucie's Yovanny Rodriguez. Rodriquez played 2026 as a 19/year old, so he's raw at best. He hit a combined 13/HR and 49/RBIs for the FCL Mets and St. Lucie but is currently only hitting .225 in A-ball after hitting .280 a level lower. Y-Rod signed on 1-15-2024 for $2.85 signing bonus and comes with all the bells and whistles bonus babies like this come with. I consider him special, but I also don't consider him MLB ready for, at least, three more seasons.

I have five BLUE PROSPECT catchers in the chain.

AAA/Syracuse Kevin Parada has worked his way back into being relevant at the AAA level (.310), still a head scratcher since he hit so miserable in Binghamton (.229). The 25/year old former first round pick has sort of lost his pop along the way, but, according to Mets writers here, he has found his misplaced Winchester rifle arm. For these reasons alone, he's back on the chalkboard and hopefully, hitting coaches can find a balance of renewed swing angles while holding his newly found BA ability. For me, he's my current go-to option if Alvarez goes down with another injury.

AA/Binghamton Chris Suero has the most diversity of all the catchers on this team. He has regularly played behind the plate, on first, and in left and has recently taken on centerfield as well. The 22/year old played the entire 2026 season for Binghamton and, though he hit 18-HR/51-RBI, 80-BB here, his 145-K and .201/BA did nothing to support anyone's case of promoting him to Syracuse. In one work 2026 was disappointing. 

Speaking of disappointments, normally I would be telling you that A+ Brooklyn Ronald Hernandez was frozen behind Suero, but he did nothing to push the issue. Yes, the 22/year old hit 10-HR and knock in 50, but he hit only .205. Another sub-par effort from a former high $ bonus baby.

A-St. Lucie Julio Zayas is a 20-year-old Dominican prospect that played the entire season for St. Lucie. 357-AB, 107-K, 11-HR, 57-RBI, 54-BB, .238/.340/.367/.707. Not the best stats, but a lot better than some of the international bonus babies listed in this post. What Zayas needs to do is gorilla himself into a starting role in 2027. Somewhere.

Lastly, DSL Mets Frank Moreno is only 17, so who cares what he has done so far, right? Well, not true if you hit .264 in the DSL league. Anywhere else, that's a respectable level. Down there, this is all-star material. He also had only 25 strikeouts in 125-AB, while walking 19 times. I've got him opening up in Florida next spring for the FCL team. 

Past this, there's a bunch a steak-knives, among which are AAA-Hayden Senger, AA-Vincent Perozo, A+ Daiverson Guilterrez, A-Ryan Tayman, FCL-Jacob Madrid. 

There are other names, but none worth mentioning. 

My spin - I was so excited last year at this time about the depth of catcher talent on this team. Frankly, the list of players hasn't changed. They simply haven't panned out, which just gives more fodder to my previous statements on giving players 100 regular at-bats to determine their initial value. Most of these 'prospects' had 400+ at-bats this season. some for only one team. Things should have developed better. 

Right now, the major league starter isn't carrying his weight, nor is anyone else in this chain. The most exciting catcher has been Torrens. The next is a Syracuse catcher that used to have the most catcher in the system but now doesn't. 

The Mets can't wait for Y-Rod to become A-Rod. They need a real major league catcher.

Rating - F

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP - Noah Hall

 

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP - Noah Hall

Noah Gibbs Hall is a right-handed pitcher in the New York Mets organization (minor leagues), currently with the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies after time with High-A Brooklyn Cyclones.

mlb.com

Background and Bio

• Born March 30, 2001, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
• Height/weight: 6'0", 195 lbs; bats/throws right.
• High school: Providence High School (Charlotte, NC).
• College: Appalachian State (2020–2021, mostly relief), then transferred to University of South Carolina (Gamecocks). Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 20th round of the 2022 MLB Draft but did not sign. In 2023 at South Carolina he posted a 3.29 ERA over 7 starts (41 IP, 43 K, 9 BB) before a back injury limited him; he earned SEC Pitcher of the Week honors early that season.
  amazinavenue.com
• Drafted by the Mets in the 7th round (216th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft and signed for a bonus around $176,250 (reports vary slightly).
  baseballamerica.com

Professional CareerHall has dealt with injuries early in his pro career (back in college, shoulder in 2024 that limited him mostly to rehab and Arizona Fall League time). 

He broke out in 2025 with High-A Brooklyn: 5-7, 2.72 ERA over 25 games (21 starts), 112.2 IP, 115 strikeouts, 63 walks (strong strikeout totals and ERA among South Atlantic League leaders at points). 

He set a Brooklyn Cyclones franchise career strikeout record in 2026 and was SAL Pitcher of the Month in July 2026. 

mlb.com

In 2026 he started the year with Brooklyn (Opening Day starter again) before a late-July promotion to Double-A Binghamton. 

2026: 

He is more of a depth/organizational arm than a top prospect, noted for competing and missing bats when healthy rather than premium velocity or pure stuff.Repertoire / Pitch ArsenalHall throws from a high-three-quarters (or three-quarters) arm slot with a somewhat unique/slingy delivery that includes a sweeping lead-foot action across the rubber in the windup (he tones it down with runners on). His best pitch has long been a high-spin changeup.

amazinavenue.com

Reported repertoire (from scouting reports, team notes, and his own comments):

• Fastballs: Four-seam, two-seam/sinker, and cutter. Sits low-to-mid 90s (roughly 91–95 mph), touching 96. The two-seam has armside life; all three shapes are said to play well off his arm slot.
  metsminors.net
• Changeup: His standout offering (often graded as his best or a plus pitch). Low-80s with high spin, late arm-side fade/dive and drop (“submarine sink”). Excellent whiff rates historically (e.g., ~55% in college spring 2023); effective vs. both lefties and righties. He has cited learning aspects from Pedro Martínez videos and attributes the high spin partly to basketball influences (Kyrie Irving-style).
  baseballamerica.com
• Slider: Mid-80s, shorter/gyro-style with high spin; used more as a complementary pitch and still developing/tightening for more bite.
• Sweeper: Developing; he has mentioned throwing good ones and planning to work on it further.
  metsminors.net

Team notes (e.g., Brooklyn game programs) list: 4-seam fastball, 2-seam fastball, cutter, slider, changeup, sweeper.

img.mlbstatic.com

Command/walk rates have been a consistent challenge (elevated BB/9), which can limit deeper outings, but he generates strikeouts and has shown the ability to induce ground balls and weak contact at times. He has spoken positively about Mets player development resources (pitching lab, mechanics work on hip coil/leg lift, strength/mobility routines) and draws inspiration from pitchers like Pedro Martínez (mentality and changeup), Tarik Skubal, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, and Nolan McLean. 

metsminors.net

Overall, Hall is a competitive, changeup-driven righty who has shown solid production at High-A when healthy and is progressing through the Mets system into Double-A as of mid/late 2026. Stats and roles can shift quickly in the minors—check official MiLB/MLB sources for the latest.

RVH — Race for Six: Five Games Left, No Room to Climb

 

Through games completed September 22, 2026

When we started this series, the Mets’ dilemma was clear: better baseball could mean worse draft odds.

That tension is still with us. The Mets beat Texas 6–3 Tuesday to reach 72–85, but Seattle’s loss pulled another club within one game of New York.

The Mets remain sixth-worst overall and fifth among lottery-eligible clubs. Their 62.6% chance of drawing a top-six selection, if today’s order holds, is unchanged from Monday and well above the 39.4% in our September 8 update.

But one door has closed: fifth is now their best possible eligible seed. Kansas City is five games worse with five left. Even the only possible tie would favor the Royals under the draft tiebreaker.

Where the race stands

Rank	Club	Record	Eligible seed	Top-six odds²
1	Colorado	57–100	1	87.6%
2	Angels	60–97	2	87.6%
3	Athletics	62–95	3	87.6%
4	San Francisco	65–93	Ineligible	—
5	Kansas City	67–90	4	73.0%
6	Mets	72–85	5	62.6%
7	Cincinnati	73–84	6	51.1%
8	Seattle	73–84	7	39.2%
9	Washington	74–84	8	28.7%
10	Minnesota	74–84	9	19.9%
11	Detroit	74–84	10	15.7%
12	Baltimore	76–81	11	12.5%
13	St. Louis	76–81	12	10.3%
14	Miami	77–80	13	9.3%
15	Toronto	77–80	14	6.9%
16	Texas	78–79	15	5.8%
18	Pittsburgh	80–77	Ineligible	—
21	Arizona	83–74	16	2.3%

¹ Reverse standings across all clubs, with draft tiebreakers applied.
² Estimated chance of any top-six pick if this order becomes final.

Texas enters the lottery field as Houston takes the AL West playoff position on their tiebreaker. The eligible pool remains 16; San Francisco, Pittsburgh and the currently playoff-positioned White Sox are ineligible.

Who can push the Mets backward?

Rival	Record advantage over NYM	Remaining schedule	Chance of earlier seed³
Cincinnati	1 game	At ATL 2; at TOR 3	~50%
Seattle	1 game	Home: HOU 1; LAA 4	~10%
Washington	1½ games	At DET 1; home NYM 3	~25%
Minnesota	1½ games	At SF 1; home TEX 3	~19%
Detroit	1½ games	Home: WSH 1; PIT 3	~4%

³ Model estimates include draft tiebreakers. The prior “threat” column excluded ties, so those percentages are not directly comparable.

Cincinnati remains the biggest danger. Its Tuesday win preserved the one-game gap, but a −159 run differential and five road games make that cushion fragile.

Seattle moved closer; Detroit moved closer still. Both lost Tuesday, trimming their respective cushions from two games and 2½ games. Seattle’s soft home schedule and Detroit’s stronger underlying performance reduce their modeled threat.

Washington remains the direct showdown. Three of the Mets’ final five games are against the Nationals. Every result moves both sides of the ledger.

The point from our earlier posts still holds

Since August 4, the Mets are 25–19 (.568), the only winning team in our comparison group. Baltimore is next at 22–23, 3½ games behind over that stretch; Kansas City trails by four.

That is encouraging baseball. It also explains why this race remains uncomfortable.

Our refreshed closing model puts the eventual protection chance at about 50%, still below the 62.6% snapshot. It estimates a 44% chance of holding fifth eligible seed, 27% of finishing sixth and 29% of slipping further.

Method: 200,000 simulations using run-based team strength, remaining opponents, home advantage, shared games and draft tiebreakers. Surrounding clubs and lottery weights are held fixed; injuries and rotations are not modeled.

As we emphasized from the outset, the Mets must draw an actual top-six pick to shift the projected CBT penalty to their second-highest selection.

Two games in Texas. Three in Washington. Fifth is the ceiling; the lottery will decide the prize.