Mack – The 23 Best “I Believe” Things…

 

Mack – The 23 Best “I Believe” Things…

 

I believe…

1.      1. SP Nolan McLean has the potential of becoming one of the top all-time Mets starters. I believe he is that talented. The talent is there. He needs no more additional pitches. The secret is to keep him healthy.

2.      2. I believe Juan Soto will maintain an above-average level of production through the lion-share of years left on his contract. He’s currently one of the top offensive players in the game and I don’t believe that level will diminish through the remainder of this decade and well into his years past that.

3.       3. I believe Francisco Lindor will be around into the next decade and the main job now is to keep him off the IL. This may not be easy.

4.       4. I believe AJ Ewing will begin his Mets major league career as the starting second baseman and hold that position down until Elian Pena debuts there in a few seasons. He will then move out to the outfield and join Soto and his buddy Carson Benge. He’s off to a late start but he may “out-star” Benge.

5.       5. In the short run, I believe the best off-season addition is Tobias Myers. I would have stretched him out in the off-season, and the kiddies will be knocking the gate down reasonably soon, so any chance of him becoming a starter has to begin right now. Wednesday’s rough outing in frigid Denver is an aberration.

6.       6. I believe the best long-term off-season addition is Bo Bichette The bat is waking up and he is already ranked in the top 10 third basemen in DRS. Thrilled he’s aboard and hope he can be talked out of opting out at the end of the season.

7.       7. Carson Benge is now past his slow start. He’s now hitting .300+ recently and he’s ranked in the top three for LF DRS. The experiment worked.

8.       8. Clay Holmes is our ace this season and the Mets need to do everything they can to get him to drop his 2027 opt out. Holmes is needed while the kiddies work out their kinks.

9.       9. Kink #1 would be Christian Scott. There is huge pitching talent here that is just needed to be poured out of the bottle.

          10.  Kink #2 is the AAA strikeout leader, Jonah Tong. The problem is the rest of his game. It is getting better though and I see him ready around June.

          11.  No kink here. Current AAA ERA leader Jack Wenninger should be promoted NOW to replace one of the failing oldies in the rotation.

         12. The problem with Zach Thornton may be where to pitch him. The Mets rotation might be filled up with his buddies before he is ready. The worst here is a 2-inning long man.

         13.    It’s taking a while for Dylan Ross to get together this season, but it’s there now and he should be called up by the end of the season. Uber talent.

         14. Want a uber Swiss army knife UT player, C/1B/LF Chris Suero is your guy. It’s going to get so much easier to fill out your 26 when he is ready and can be penciled in for three positions.

         15, Nick Morabito will be one of my go-to UT outfielders when the dust settles. He may start out as the starting CFer, but I see his role as OF-4.

         16. Remember I said this… Yovanny Rodriguez will be your starting Mets catcher, latest 2029. 5-star talent.

m       17. My LHDH is simple. He’s currently hitting .333 for the Mets. Good enough for me. Another guy with initials… M.L. Melendez.

          18.  I believe that Randy Guzman could be the Mets first baseman in three years. Uber power being developed here. Signed in 2022 as a IFA. A steal of only a $10K signing bonus. Developing uber power. 10 home run last season. So far, seven this season for St. Lucie. 6-4 RHH. Remember this name.

          19. I believe the Mets have made some wonderful deals with undrafted players, starting with St. Lucie outfielder JT Benson. The 24-year old was signed away from the Lake Country DockHounds (2024), where he hit .286 in 109-PA. So far this year, Benson is batting 4-HR, 19-RBI, .309, in 92-PA. I believe Benson has a definite future for this team, especially if his power keeps developing.

          20.  I believe, around June 1^st, the Mets should flip shortstops between St. Lucie and Brooklyn. Let’s face it… Antonio Jiminez needs more grooming. I’ve been told he has a bunch of talent. The problem is it is not firing forward. At the same time, Elian Pena is eating up rookie ball in Florida. I believe the Mets should consider, around June 1^st, to flip these guys. Keep trying to find a level that Pena may need  

more time at. Who knows. There may not be any.

      21.  Wander Asigen is probably the most talented middle infield prospect. The problem is you are going to have to wait 4-5 years to see him play.

      22.   I believe 2027 will bring aboard the next best thing in IFA OF Cleiner Ramirez. But you will have to wait even longer than you waited for Asigen.

      23.   And 2028 will bring on another shortstop, Euneil de la Cruz.

Is   Is this good?

      Well, considering you are grading four full season teams, three rookie teams, and projected future uber International prospects... great teams would minimally have around 40 players on this list.  Just saying. 

Tom Brennan - The Magic Is Back - At Least, For One Day

How I feel when Mets Players Hit 

I imagine every hitter on the Mets roster circled the games in Colorado as a healing process for their batting averages.

Sure, enough, a 10-5 win last night. Marcus Semien gets four hits, Including his second homer of the season, And his average suddenly jumps up to .231. Just like that.

Soto homers. That’s a welcoming sign.

Peralta five shut out innings, but Tobias Meyers followed with 4 Runs in less than an innings’ work,making all the armchair quarterbacks recalibrate their love for Toby and their distain for Freddy just a little bit, or more than just a little bit.

One more game in Colorado today. May they score 20 runs before they get on the plane today. And, of course, win 20-0.

Syracuse won 3–1, with Jack Wenninger being masterful for six innings, and Ryan Clifford hitting his sixth home run, one of his two hits in the game, where he didn’t strike out in 4 at bats, a very positive one, for Cliff.

Binghamton one in 10 innings, 4–3. Ramos and Suero both hit home runs, but both are still hitting under .200. Kevin Parada is heating up, adding two hits, bringing his average up to .188. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 

Binghamton used several Hurlers and they combined for 16 strikeouts.

Joel Dial fell to 0-5, 9.13 ERA for Brooklyn, which lost 8 to 4. For once, the team’s bat started out promisingly with six hits and four runs over the first five innings, but those were followed by four hitless innings in the loss. 

I am sincerely beginning to wonder if this team will ever get their batting average up to .200.

St. Lucie lost 5 to 4. The only bright light was Randy Guzman, who hit a two run shot, his seventh, and added two walks.

Lastly, the FCL Mets have begun play. They lost their first game 10–9, followed by a 3–2 win. I won’t provide updates here at this point.

That is my brief update. If one of you wants to comment on how the FCL games went, feel free.

For MJ Melendez, to lift the ball or to not lift the ball - that is the question

Back in March when every team was 0-0 and the New York Mets were still figuring out its roster during spring training, MJ Melendez was one of the pleasant surprises during the team’s time in Port St. Lucie. Melendez was one of the final cuts, but it was clear the catcher-turned-outfielder made an impression and was poised to make an impact with the big league club sooner rather than later. 

Every team deals with injuries over the course of a 162 game season, and Melendez jumped out during the spring that he was going to be one of the first calls when a Met hit the injured list. Sure enough, Melendez received his promotion within the first month of the season and has made the most of his opportunity. 

Prior to Melendez leaving the game early last night, the former Kansas City Royal was batting .333 with an OPS north of 1.000. In a time when the Mets have been looking every which way for offensive production, Melendez has been a breath of fresh air. Melendez has been bumped into the three-hole during his tenure with New York and was responsible for a game-tying three-run homer against the Washington Nationals despite the team ultimately falling short last Thursday. 

Nobody should expect Melendez’s recent surge to continue at this same rate, but a few of the underlying numbers suggest that this might be slightly more than just a flash in the pan. 

Melendez’s expected batting average leaves a lot to be desired at just a miniscule .186, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he has just been lucky. His average exit velocity is above 96 MPH. The Nationals James Wood currently leads baseball in average exit velocity among qualified players. If Melendez qualified, he would sit second to Wood and just be one tenth behind the fellow National League East outfielder. 

Melendez hitting the daylights out of the ball is not a new phenomenon either. In 2023, he was in the 96th percentile in exit velocity at over 93 MPH and has never been below 90.5 MPH. The Mets outfielder would be fourth in all of baseball in hard hit rate at just under 61%. 

Melendez swings hard with a bat speed of over 73 MPH, and we already laid out that when he does make contact, he hits the cover off of the ball. Where Melendez will need to improve is cutting the gap between his strikeout rate and his walk rate. 

As it stands now, he is punching out almost 36% of the time while he is only drawing a free pass a tick over seven percent. To put it another way, he is striking out over five times as often as he is walking. That explains his lower expected statistics. Maybe this is just who Melendez has developed into, but the grand canyon used to not exist between these numbers. 

In 2022, his walk rate was reaching double digits and and his strikeout percentage was cut down to about 24%. If he replicated those numbers (24% strikeout rate to a 10% walk rate), his early season production should be a lot more sustainable. 

Looking at Melendez’s career trajectory, it followers a pattern that we have seen sweep the baseball landscape. As his strikeout numbers have climbed so has his launch angle. Someone got through to him to sacrifice his contact for lifting the ball on a more consistent basis. In 2024, Melendez only struck out a quarter of the time. 

He also had a launch angle of under 15 degrees. Fast forward just one year later and his strikeout rate skyrocketed to over 35% while his launch angle jumped over 10 degrees. Although his launch angle has decreased (about 21 degrees as it stands currently), that number is still way higher than it had been from 2022-2024. 

The tradeoff has worked for Melendez to start the 2026 season, and it might continue to pay off as the weather eventually starts to heat up. With that being said, it begs the question of will the tradeoff pay off for Melendez in the long run. It’s also not something that any player can change at the snap of the fingers, so this might truly be who he is from this point forward. 

It’s easy to see why Melendez made these adjustments given he was already hitting the ball hard. Hitting the ball hard plus lifting the ball typically translates into success in the modern day’s eyes. 

We have also seen Carlos Mendoza consistently pinch hit for Melendez whenever a lefty comes into the game for the opposing squad. Melendez has not fared greatly against lefties, but he has not faced southpaws more than 150 times in a given season (and not more than 75 since 2023). With the Royals, 

Melendez actually hit close to .300 against left-handers in his rookie season four years ago. Given that he has barely played against lefties over the last few seasons, it is tough to expect great performances in those situations, but the only way he is going to improve would be exposure to those matchups. 

I am old enough to remember when Kyle Schwarber would not play against southpaws. In a time when the Mets lineup is struggling to find any type of consistency at the dish, it is worth giving Melendez reps to see if he can improve over time, especially considering Austin Slater has not been lighting it up during his opportunities. This isn’t to say that Melendez should be batting third against Chris Sale, but having a lefty shouldn’t mean an automatic hook for one of the lone bright spots in New York’s batting order. 

The Mets are not playing like an inspired group. It’s unfair to put this all on Mendoza or on any single person for that matter. In a time when the fans are searching for any reason to continue tuning in on a nightly basis, Melendez has given them one. Hitting lefties hasn’t always been kind, but the outfielder has earned the opportunity to prove people wrong. It’s unclear how long this will continue or if it is sustainable. 

It’s unclear if sacrificing contact for launching the ball will be the right move for the rest of 2026, but Melendez has provided New York with a much-needed spark. He has carried over his spring training performance and has been one of the lone instances of a player performing better than what the back of the baseball card might suggest.

Paul Articulates - Revisiting the Soto decision

On December 11, 2024 the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to an historic contract.  15 years, $765M were committed to one of the top players in baseball.  That is an enormous amount of money to spend on any player, and the decision to do so had to be based upon some very detailed analysis that the team was on the precipice of greatness with just one great player required to get there.

In the first few months of 2025, without even seeing the best of Juan Soto, the Mets looked like that team that was headed for greatness.  At one point they had the best record in baseball and were stringing series wins together one after another.

We all know where the story turned from there, and there have been countless stories published about the fact that the Mets are no longer anywhere close to greatness.  In fact, their lineup today looks more like a shopping trip to the Salvation Army than fifth avenue.

With that in mind, I pose the question, “Does this team need Juan Soto?”

One may argue that “every team” needs a Juan Soto, because when you have one of the best players in the sport, your team is inherently better.  But my question is more pragmatic than just being qualitatively better.  It is whether “better” achieves a realistic goal.  When the Mets acquired Soto, their seemingly realistic goal was to win a World Series Championship.  That is no longer a realistic goal.  I am not even sure that making the playoffs is a realistic goal because they have to play .614 ball for the entire rest of the season to be the sixth best team in the NL.  So if Soto makes the 8th best team good enough for 7th or 6th best in the NL, would you pay $765M for that level of improvement?

Let’s start by looking at the Soto contract that was signed in the off-season before 2025:

Value: $765M overall; 

Duration: 15 years

Options: Soto can opt out after 2029; Team can void the opt-out by adding $4M/year for the last nine years.

Trades: Full no trade clause

Incentives: $75M signing; MVP bonus, WS MVP bonus; Silver slugger bonus; All-star, Gold Glove, Hank Aaron bonuses.

Sunk investment: $75M signing bonus plus $124.15M in salary (2025, 2026)

Now let’s look at the return on investment:

Runs scored (2025+2026): 130

Runs Batted In (2025+2026): 114

Runs created plus (WRC+): 156 (2025); 151 (2026)

WAR: 6.4

Clearly Soto makes this team better, but just as clearly, Soto cannot generate enough WAR to tilt the current team from a mediocre team to a World Series contender.  His cost is not only the salary that he is paid by contract but also the luxury tax levied on the team for being above threshold and the inability to sign other highly compensated players.  The Mets are a middle-class household with a Bentley in the driveway.  

With that said, I know that this was not the intended result.  The Mets (and us) thought we would be a legitimate contender by this time, and in that case, having a Soto on your squad is a tremendous asset.  I am not blaming anyone for taking a big shot and signing Soto, but having him on the roster and then blowing up the core was a pretty big gamble that did not pay off.

So now, what to do?  Soto can’t opt out until 2029 and the Mets can’t trade him for pieces to rebuild without his consent to waive the clause.  There are plenty of incentives in the contract to give Soto the motivation to excel during these few years before the option, but it has to be demoralizing to play out seasons with no prize at the end.  My guess is that he might be willing to waive the no trade clause if there is a team willing to pay the price for him that has a legitimate chance to contend for championships over the next few years.

What would you do?

RVH - The Mets on June 1st

 

Let’s try something different.

Not reacting to last night. Not arguing about what this team should be.

Just a simple question:

What is this team actually going to look like in a few weeks?

Because if you step back — and really look at how this season is unfolding — it’s pretty clear the New York Mets we thought we had in March isn’t the one we’re moving toward.

So this isn’t a prediction.

It’s a thought exercise.

But it might be closer to reality than we want to admit.

A June 1 Version That Actually Feels Plausible

Something like this:

• C: Francisco Alvarez / Torrens

• 1B: Christian Walker

• 2B: Marcus Semien / Brett Baty

• SS: Francisco Lindor

• 3B: Bo Bichette

• LF: Juan Soto

• CF: Nick Morabito

• RF: Carson Benge

• DH: Jorge Polanco

Is it clean? No.
Is it probably closer to where this is going? Yes.

Catcher: More Split Than Star (Right Now)

Let’s be honest about this.

Alvarez is still a big part of the future.

But right now, this looks a lot more like a shared job with Torrens than a full breakout moment.

• Alvarez plays, develops, shows flashes

• Torrens handles innings, keeps things from getting sideways

That’s not a criticism.

That’s just where things are.

Why You Could Actually See Walker at First

This is the kind of move that doesn’t get headlines — but makes a ton of sense.

Christian Walker solves something obvious:

• Real 1B presence

• Legit power

• Less patchwork

And from Houston’s side, it lines up:

• Clear roughly $30M in future money

• Add innings from David Peterson

• Get a controllable piece (Vientos or Pintaro-type)

That’s not a blockbuster.

That’s a baseball trade.

The Rotation: No Spin Needed

• Peralta

• Holmes

• McLean

• Tong

• Christian Scott

Let’s not pretend this is something it’s not.

This is a figure-it-out group.

You’re not trying to optimize matchups.

You’re trying to answer one question:

Who can actually take the ball and hold up?

Bullpen + Bench = Get Through the Game

Bullpen:
Williams, Weaver, Minter, Raley, Brazoban, Myers, Kimbrel, Warren

Bench:
Taylor, Torrens, Melendez, Tauchman

No illusions here.

This is about coverage, not dominance.

Still Hanging Over Everything

• Kodai Senga

• Sean Manaea

• Luis Robert Jr.

Until some version of this group returns, this roster is always going to feel incomplete.

That’s just reality.

The Next Wave Is Already Lined Up

And this is where it gets more interesting.

Because June isn’t the destination.

It’s the bridge.

If this keeps trending the way it is, you’re likely looking at:

• Jack Wenninger

• A.J. Ewing

Arriving around the All-Star break — and contributing by the deadline at the latest.

Not just cameos.

Real roles.

And Let’s Be Honest… July Is Coming

If this team is still hovering where it is now, you have to assume some movement.

Potential trade pieces:

• Peralta

• Holmes

• Minter

• Raley

• Brett Baty

• Francisco Alvarez

• Taylor

• Luis Robert Jr.

Different categories, obviously.

Some are:

• bullpen/innings arms contenders will want

Some are:

• still-figuring-it-out players

And then there are the tougher calls.

Not saying those happen.

But if you’re being honest, they’re at least on the table.

So What Are We Actually Watching?

Not a contender.

Not a teardown.

Something in between.

A team that’s:

• Trying to stay functional

• Starting to bring up real pieces

• Quietly setting itself up for the next version

Final Thought

This probably isn’t the team that wins you anything this year.

But it might be the team that finally tells you something real.

About:

• who belongs

• who doesn’t

• and what this needs to look like going forward

And at this point?

That might be the most important thing that happens all season.