Tom Brennan - A Fun Part of New Seasons is Seeing Exciting New Prospect Names

Sam Robertson

NEW SEASON, NEW NAMES, NEW EXCITEMENT

Every year, you see minor league players who catch your attention, perhaps for the first time.

Nicolas Carreno is one for me.

He was traded from the Pirates to the Mets in exchange for tall lefty Josh Walker. 

The 5’10” 19 year old lefty Carreno was FLAT OUT WILD before this season, with 64 walks in 72 innings. Lots of Ks, too, but oy vey, those walks!

Well, times change - on Wednesday for St Lucie, he went 3.1 IP, allowing just one hit and one walk, fanning 7. So this season, he now has thrown 8 innings, walked just 2 and fanned SIXTEEN. WOW!

Looks like a possible great trade for the Mets.

He wasn’t up against a weak hitting opponent, as the next few Lucie pitchers surrendered 15 runs in 3 innings, with three straight 5 run innings. 

Final score, 17-13. The winner heads to the Sugar Bowl!

Ahh, it happens. 

Carreno’s younger St Lucie teammate, budding star Elian Peña, is off to a blistering start. He got on base 3 more times last night with a double, walk, and a HBP. A .413 OBP.

His “older” teammate, “my guy” 20/year old Randy Guzman, had started the season slowly, but got it cranking big time, as he cracked a double and TWO HRs on Wednesday, with 5 RBIs. My guy.

2B Sam Robertson? A .500 OBP!

Elsewhere, Christian Scott was sharp for 5.1 IP, allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and fanning 5, but the Yankees farm team won 4-1. I’d say Scott is READY.  One of the two runs was on a pop double to short center.

In Brooklyn, facing a strong hitting Greensboro on a warm day, the pen surrendered 12 runs total in the 6th and 8th innings. Trace Willhoite, a position player, however, tossed a Perfect 9th on 8 pitches! 15-4 loss.

Daiverson Gutierrez, the 20 year old catcher bonus baby, got on base 3 times with a hit and 2 walks, and is rolling with a .425 OBP.

Binghamton started late. Thornton was great, but Bingo could only amass one hit by Kevin Parada in a 3-0, 7 inning loss. 

The major league match up was another nice tete a tete…Holmes vs. Ohtani. Ohtani is a tough guy to try to end a 7 game losing streak against. 

Holmes was great. Devin Williams was soundly spanked. Ohtani was supreme. Mets lose 8-2. 8 straight Ls.

Off to Wrigley Field for 3 before the trip is finito. Can they rally?

Alex Rubinson - It Might be Time to Retire the Fastball Freddy Nickname

After coming into the league, Freddy Peralta quickly claimed the nickname Fastball Freddy. The former Milwaukee Brewer has been known for his electric fastball and is the pitch that has defined his career. In his first few starts, Peralta has been a serviceable starter for the Mets rotation, pitching to a 3.86 ERA. His production has been solid, but one could argue he’s been a tad bit disappointing considering he was tasked with being the team’s ace in 2026. Despite what his raw uninspiring numbers might suggest, there should be plenty of optimism that the hurler will turn things around, and it’s not due to the pitch that has been his calling card.

Anything needs to be taken with a grain of salt this early in the season, so of course these trends could fizzle out this time next month, but it does bear watching. In his first four starts to begin the season, Peralta is still relying heavily on his four-seamer, throwing it nearly 50% of the time, while his changeup and curveball make up for the majority of the remaining half of his pitches. Peralta should do what makes him comfortable and confident, but if the recent trends continue, it might be time to tweak his arsenal. 

Currently, Peralta has a pitching run value of three, good to be in the 80th percentile. Although his fastball contributes a plus one, his offspeed run value is an impressive plus three (his breaking stuff is below average at negative one). His offspeed run value is in the 97th percentile of all major league pitchers. Hitters are currently batting a disgusting .091 against his changeup. That low number also represents the slugging percentage against that pitch. Maybe things will even out as the weather warms up and we get a larger sample size, but if opponents were slugging .091 against one particular pitch, wouldn’t you convince the pitcher to increase its usage?

Again, one can argue that the sample is too small, but the expected numbers back it up as well. Sure, the expected batting average climbs all the way up to .170, but it still does show that he should be throwing his changeup more than a quarter of the time. These expected numbers are due to hitters not being able to square it up. Currently, Peralta’s changeup has manufactured an average exit velocity of 78 MPH and a launch angle of six. That is less than half of the launch angle of his four-seam fastball. He has given up two singles on the pitch with no extra-base hits to begin the year on his changeup. 

In addition to making the changeup more of a primary pitch, he might be underutilizing his curveball as well. The numbers don’t stand out nearly as much, and I don’t think Peralta should be dramatically increasing the number of curveballs thrown unlike his changeup, but the metrics show Peralta’s curveball should improve with a large sample size. As of now, his .471 opponent slugging on the curveball will give fans and pitchers pause when tossing that pitch, but his expected slugging is nearly 200 points lower at .280. Among his three main pitches in his repertoire, his curveball has the largest whiff rate at over 35%. Meanwhile, his fastball sits seven percent lower and is the lowest of his three main pitches. Similarly to the slugging percentage, opponents have a wOBA of .352 versus the curveball, but the xwOBA is much lower at .276. 

Now that we broke down how Peralta’s secondary stuff might actually be better than what his nickname would suggest, let’s discuss that famous fastball he has. His fastball is still a good pitch. His fastball run value is still in the 68th percentile, which is good, but it’s probably not as elite as one would think given his reputation. We actually see the reverse pattern with his fastball. His .257 opponent batting average ..371 slugging are solid numbers, but the underlying statistics show that as the weather warms up and the ball starts flying farther, those numbers might inflate. 

His expected opponent’s average is nearly 30 points higher and the expected slugging checks in at almost .460. It’s also not super encouraging that the xWOBA against that pitch is slightly over .375. These numbers certainly don’t scream ace of a world series contender. 

With Peralta throwing his fastball far more often than his other pitches, it’s fair to give that pitch the benefit of the doubt, but with how dominant his changeup has been and how the curveball has worked as well, it is fair to wonder if someone needs to get in Peralta’s ear and tell him to tweak his repertoire. 

Finally, I did want to touch on his slider. He has thrown the pitch a grand total of two dozen times this season. We can take away anything remotely meaningful from such a tiny sample. It is a pitch that fans should keep an eye on. He has not surrendered a hit on the pitch and has recorded a strikeout. The nearly 86% whiff rate is certainly due to the lack of times throwing it, but it is certainly worth seeing if that pitch can play at a high level when working it more into your arsenal.

I already touched on how his curveball is a really solid pitch, but Peralta does have a negative run value on his breaking stuff. Although I don’t expect that to continue, the implementation of a slider just to give hitters another pitch to think about should not only help his breaking ball numbers, but it can have a positive effect on every other pitch as well. As long as he is comfortable with his arsenal, a new pitch should only help keep hitters off balance. 

Fastball Freddy was one of the biggest additions the Mets made this past offseason. David Stearns knows Peralta as well as anyone from their time in Milwaukee together. He figured he was getting a bonafide ace and frontline starter. As the season continues through its early stages, that still might be the case, but if Peralta is going to take his game to new heights, it might be time to tinker with his sequencing. After all, hitters game plan knowing they have a 50% chance of getting on the heater, so they can sit on it. Imagine if that was no longer the case. Maybe it truly is solely because of the sample size, but for Justin Willard and company, it is definitely something worth exploring.

Paul Articulates – It is never over in April

The New York Mets are reeling on a current 7 game losing streak (as of Tuesday night) and still have to play four more away games against the dominant Dodgers and the contending Cubs.  It certainly feels like a dire situation because we don’t have any other reference point on this current roster to justify that they can do better.  But April is very far from October, and this Mets team still has time to prove that David Stearns’ roster build can do the job.

Why do I say that?  Well, all teams go through their ups and downs.  This just happens to be a down before the up.  It is very far from the worst losing streak in Mets history which was 17 games long in 1962 by one of the most hapless teams in Mets’ history.

Losing 7 in a row does not put them in the category of hapless or even hopeless.  The last Mets team to reach the World Series  lost 7 in a row in June 2015 but went on a huge tear after the trade deadline which energized the whole city.  So, let’s all acknowledge that “frustrating” is not “finished”.  One could argue that the 1986 team never lost 7 in a row, but at this point no one would compare this team to the ’86 dynasty.  

Despite our current disappointment, all of us were able to find hopeful aspects of this roster before the season, and there is no reason that those aspects won’t play out by the time we reach September.  We know that the pressure to meet those expectations is certainly working against the players in their current state.   That pressure will give way to forward momentum on a single event – whether that is a late inning walk-off or a game-saving defensive gem.  I can’t predict whether that event will happen tonight or this weekend or next week.  But when the upturn comes, we will have a reference point on what “good” looks like to more fairly weigh this team’s chances at the end of the season.

So much like baseball players grind through the difficult times, we as fans must grind through the current streak, anxiously awaiting the event that will turn this team’s psyche into a positive vibe.  And then, every one of us will be yelling, “Let’s Go Mets”!

RVH - The Lindor Lag

 

It’s become an annual ritual in Queens, and by now, it shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Through 15 games, Francisco Lindor looks out of sync at the plate again. The surface line jumps out for all the wrong reasons: a .546 OPS and zero RBIs.

We’ve seen this before.

If you go back year by year, Lindor’s first 15 games have rarely told you where he’s going to finish. But they do tell you exactly where the team is at the moment.

Here’s the baseline:

Season	Age	Team W-L	15-G OPS	Full Season OPS
2021	27	6–9	.421	.734
2022	28	10–5	.967	.788
2023	29	9–6	.867	.806
2024	30	7–8	.426	.844
2025	31	8–7	.711	.812
2026	32	7–8	.546	TBD

The pattern is consistent.

When Lindor ignites early, the Mets separate. When he lags, they hover.

And yet, the second half of that table tells the other story. The finish almost always normalizes at a high level. The slow start isn’t the destination.

But it does define the present.

---

Start with where Lindor is right now.

Even in this lag, he hasn’t collapsed. He’s drawn 10 walks, scored 10 runs, and continues to control the strike zone. He’s not chasing, not pressing, not turning a slow start into something worse.

He’s holding the floor.

That matters over 162.

But this Mets team isn’t built to live at the floor.

It’s built to separate.

And that’s where the timing of this lag becomes more important than the lag itself.

Take a step back and look at the system around him.

Juan Soto is out. Multiple position players are scuffling. There are more mental errors than you expect from a veteran group. Players are learning new positions on the fly.

And the pitching, which carried the team early, is no longer fully stabilizing it.

The rotation was a clear strength through the first turn, but over the last couple you’re starting to see cracks. Outings are getting shorter, command less consistent. At the same time, the bullpen has lost some reliability, with Luke Weaver struggling in back-to-back appearances.

Put it together, and you get a team that’s not syncing.

• The offense has gone cold

• When runs show up, the pitching doesn’t consistently hold

• Defensive sharpness has slipped

• Wins aren’t stringing, and losses aren’t being stopped

That’s not collapse. That’s drift. And this is where Lindor’s role changes.

When the system is aligned, he can be one of many drivers. When the system is out of sync, he has to become the stabilizer and the accelerator at the same time.

Right now, he’s only doing the first part. He’s getting on base. Managing the strike zone. Avoiding further damage. But he’s not yet forcing alignment.

And when your central player is in neutral while the rest of the system is drifting, the team settles exactly where this one has — around .500, without traction.

That’s what makes this version of the Lindor Lag different. Not the performance itself.

The context around it.

Because the Mets are about to head into a demanding road stretch against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs — two teams that expose lack of execution quickly.

This isn’t a stretch where you can wait for things to click.

At some point, someone has to force it.

Historically, Lindor gets there. The track record says the bat will come, the production will normalize, and the full version of the player will show up.

But until he shifts from managing his at-bats to controlling the game, the system will keep doing what it’s doing now.

Fumbling, Stumbling.

The Mets aren’t broken, yet. But they’re not yet aligned. Time will tell.

And in this version of the season, the difference between those two states runs directly through Lindor. 

I really hope that he snaps out of it - soon.

Tom Brennan - Mets Lose - Again; Soto Running; Mighty Morabito; Ross Fatigue; Mushy Minors Team Performances; Clobbering Hurlers

SOTO….

Got hurt April 3. Hadn’t even started running as of April 13. Uh-oh.

But tonight, SNY noted he did in fact run on Tuesday, April 14, and hopes to be back in a week. SO needed.

METS LOSE AGAIN LAST NIGHT

Well, last night started well with Lindor’s lead off solo HR against the great Yamamoto.  Nolan McLean was equally great for 7 frames, but Raley and the Mets LOST 2-1, as the dizzying downward spiral continues. The Mets had their chances in the 7th and 8th, but left two on in each inning “late and close”. Benge had a hit, but “0 for his last 23” Mark Vientos did not.

Season’s over? You decide.  “Beware the ides of April”.

Make sure to file your taxes. 

Remember, no tax on Social Security, so try to smile.

MORABITO MIGHT

Lots of folks “expertly assess” Nick Morabito and think, “yeah, he’s super quick, but there’s no pop there”. 

Well, on Sunday, trailing 2-0 in the 8th, Morabito (.295) hit one out of the park at 109 MPH and 442 feet to tie the game. NO POWER? 

He’s got power, clearly, and is finally playing in a league where the ball flies out. Unlike in the SAL and Eastern Leagues. Let’s see he does this season in Syracuse, unless, of course he gets called up.

BTW, I saw a video montage of the 10 longest MLB HRs of 2026 so far. Morabito’s shot would be # 10. Two more feet, and he would have been tied for 6th longest.

WHY IS DYLAN ROSS NOT PITCHING?

I noted this recently:

“Syracuse placed Dylan Ross on the 7-day injured list March 27 due to arm fatigue, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.”

Me? I’m just fatigued, period. Hopefully both of our fatigue challenges skedaddle along soon. We need Ross to be THE BOSS.

TUESDAY MINOR LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS

Jonah Tong pitched well for 4 innings, then gave up 5 runs in the 5th. He fanned 10 in 4.2 IP.

Hayden Senger is getting his Cal Raleigh thing going. 2 HRs last night, 5 already on the short season, with 11 RBIs in 32 ABs, leading me to wonder, besides catching, can he play SS?

Brooklyn - Mitch Voit smacked a 3 run, come-from-behind homer. 9-8 winners.

Santucci was solid over 4 innings for Binghamton, but Orellana in relief was not. Ewing went 3 for 5, and is up to .419. I like .419 hitters.

St Lucie got 2 more hits out of the impressive Elian Pena, Salgado smacked a HR, ans the Lucites won, 2-0, with great pitching from Chirinos, Chris Rodriguez, and Ryan Dollar.

WHERE ARE THEY TODAY?

Alex Ramirez? He is a former Mets prospect that fizzled, and is now a AA outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, and is off to a slow start.  We wish him well. 

MUSHY MINORS TEAM HITTING AND PITCHING STATS

We will see what changes in the quality of Mets Minors team stats, but so far, through Sunday, quite unimpressive in pitching, not a lot of hitting:

Syracuse: 7-8, 4.98 ERA

Hitters .236, 54 runs in 15 games.

Binghamton: 5-3, 4.38 ERA

Hitters .222, 6.4 runs/game. Low average, lots of runs. 6 BBs per game.

Brooklyn: 2-6, 4.60 ERA

Hitters .142, 19 runs in 8 games, 108 Ks. Brutal hitting start.

 - But they have had Yonaton H., J Rod, and Trey Snyder out with injuries.

St Lucie: 4-5, 6.08 ERA

Hitters .255 and 44 runs in 9 games - nice.

But, as they say, it is early, Shirley.

WHO WAS THE HITTING SHOHEI OF THE WINDY CITY?

Remember…

Gary Peters?

Twice the AL's ERA leader, and rookie of the year pitcher at age 26 in the early 1960s for the White Sox.  He was the Jake deGrom of his day. 

How so? 

By him once having a 1.98 ERA, but going only 12-10 that year in 1966.

Like Jake, he too could hit better than your average pitcher.  In Peters' case, much better than your average pitcher.  He often was used as a pinch  hitter, and in his career, hit .222/.253/.348, with 31 doubles, 7 triples, 19 HRs and 102 RBIs in 807 career at bats, a similar slash line to Tyrone Taylor's in 2025. He was a .235 career pinch hitter, too.

GARY PETERS MAKING HEADLINES BACK IN THE DAY

From Ballnine.com

Even with his Relatively thundering bat, he was just 124-103, despite a 3.25 career ERA.  

His ERA in his last 4 years showed age-related decline: 4.35.  

Age-related decline, I am afraid, is almost inevitable. I say it more and more as I age myself.

The White Sox were decent at that time, but were a lousy hitting team. 

To illustrate that, in 3 years, 1966-68, they averaged just 523 runs. 

Very much like the Mets of that era. Impotent.

Imagine how CWS would have done without Gary’s potent bat?  

The entire White Sox teams in those 3 years hit just .228/.291/.320, very similar to Peters' career slash line.

For all his success, he earned under $500,000 in his career in baseball. 

Born too soon. In this day and age, Peters might just have made $500 million instead.

OTHER PITCHERS COULD HIT, TOO…

Mets fans only had that fine hitter Mike Hampton for a season. But that dude could RAKE!

Other Mets’ pitchers over time have hit well enough - for pitchers. 

Guys like Seaver, deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler...but are not even close to decent compared to everyday hitters.  

Seaver did have 12 HRs and 86 RBIs - YAY - but hit .154, not so YAY.

Back to Mike Hampton, though; he got off to a slow start as a hitter when he was young.  A lot of young hitters don't hit great when first called up either.

But from 1998 to 2009, he was impressive: .270, with 40 extra base hits in 561 at bats.  Clearly, he could have played, perhaps excelled, as an everyday hitter.  He had killer numbers in his years playing for Colorado.

But Hampton has had fine company - baseball has had a lot of fine hitting pitchers over time.

Babe Ruth, of course. No need for explanation.

Shohei Ohtani, of course. No need for explanation. Japanese Babe Ruth.

But there are many pitchers-only guys besides Ruth and Shohei who compiled real deal numbers. Like these:

Wes Ferrell - .280, 38 HRs, 208 RBIs.  They even stuck him in the outfield for a few dozen games.  Dude could flat-out rake.

Warren Spahn - despite having 490 declining-years at bats at age 39-44, when most hitters have long since retired, he overall hit .194 with 35 HRs and 189 RBIs in 1,894 at bats.  Heck of an RBI rate.  

Earl Wilson - a big power guy, he had 740 at bats, and a whopping 35 HRs, 111 RBIs, .195/.265/.369.

Ken Brett, George's bro, once homered in 4 straight starts, and hit .262 with 10 HRs and 44 RBIs.

Don Larsen, Mr Perfect, hit .242 with 14 HRs and 72 RBIs.

Don Drysdale, .186 with 29 HRs and 113 RBIs.  Had one season where he hit over .300, with 7 HRs and 21 RBIs. 

At age 21, he also hit 7 long balls.

Don Robinson - hit .231, 13 HRs, 69 RBIs.

Rick Rhoden, .238, 9 dingers, 79 RBIs.  Robinson and Rhoden actually played together with the Pirates for several seasons.  

Let’s not forget relatively recent guys like:

Dontrelle Willis: .244, 9, 39.  Tough competitor at the plate.  Donnie boy hit .320/.370/.580 against the Mets in 50 at bats.

Bob Forsch: .212/12/84 in 891 ABs for the Cardinals,  His overall #s dipped a tad by going 5 for 31 in his last two seasons at age 38-39.

Micah Owings: .283/.310/.502, with 9 HRs and 35 RBIs.  I always wondered why he didn't continue as a hitter after his pitching career ended at age 29.

Carlos Bam Bam Zambrano: .238/24/71.  A guy who loved to hit.

A pattern?  Four guys named Don.  That must be it.

You have to wonder how many of these guys could have been everyday players instead, had they not been good pitchers, which almost all were.

Tony Cloninger was almost on a par with these guys, hitting-wise, but none ever had the game he did one day: two grand slams, an RBI double, and nine RBIs. Insane.

And of course Rick Ankiel, who had one early very good pitching year, developed an incurable wild streak, and went back to the drawing board and became an every day player and hit .240 with 76 HRs and 251 career RBIs. Of course, in his end of career Mets cameo, he hit, well, like a pitcher: .182, with 25 Ks in 66 ABs.

Lastly…Dwight Gooden hit .196 in his career, truly impressive considering that nearly half of his plate appearances occurred before he turned 23.  Doc amazingly hit .214 in 190 plate appearances at age 19 and 20.

By comparison, Carson Benge right now is 23 years old. Major league plate appearances through age 22? Zero. 

How would he have hit against major league pitching at ages 19 thru 22?

And Doc? He wasn’t dumb, being an MD and all…he was hitting-aggressive! 

He swung at first pitches in 52% of his career plate appearances. 

No doubt it helped Doc to attack!

Somebody ought to tell that to laid-back Mark Vientos.

Light tower power we will likely never see?  Nolan McLean. 

He had 9 HRs in 146 minor league at bats. He likely would have needed 4-5 minor league hitting years to right-size his strikeout rate and become a competent MLB power hitter.

Anyway… What are your great hitting pitcher memories? 

Wyatt Young throwing a mop up inning after a 6 RBI night does not count.