5/2/26

RVH - A Mea Culpa on the 2026 Mets: Where I Got It Wrong

 

There are times in a season where analysis becomes less about explanation and more about reflection.

This is one of those times.

I spent much of the offseason and early part of the year framing the New York Mets through a systems lens. I believed in the logic of the build — the shift toward run prevention, athleticism, depth, and a more balanced roster construction.

And I still believe that logic has merit.

But I was too confident in how cleanly that logic would translate to reality.

Where My Thinking Fell Short

Looking back, the issue wasn’t that the model made no sense. It did.

The issue is that I didn’t fully appreciate how many things needed to go right at the same time for it to work.

I treated the roster like a collection of solid parts that would collectively produce stability.

What it really was, in practice, was a system that relied on multiple outcomes aligning — health, timing, and performance — all at once.

That’s a very different level of risk.

The Assumptions I Smoothed Over

Some of these were easy to justify individually:

  • Expecting stability or rebound from parts of the rotation

  • Believing depth would absorb inevitable injuries

  • Assuming defensive gains would offset offensive inconsistency

Each of those, on its own, is reasonable.

What I didn’t properly account for was how interconnected they were.

When the rotation wavers, the bullpen absorbs it.
When the bullpen is stretched, the defense is exposed.
When the offense isn’t consistently producing, there’s no margin to recover.

At that point, small issues don’t stay small.

They start to stack.

Where I Was Too Dismissive

This is the part I take more seriously.

There were concerns being raised — not always cleanly articulated, but directionally right:

  • Questions about rotation reliability

  • Questions about offensive consistency

  • Questions about how thin the margin for error might be

My instinct was to filter those through the framework — to trust the structure, the design, the idea that over 162 games things would normalize.

In doing that, I was too quick to discount what was really being identified:

The number of things that had to go right for this team to function the way it was designed.

That’s not noise. That’s risk.

On the Offense — A Needed Correction

I also need to be precise about something I didn’t frame correctly.

This team did not lack offensive anchors.

With players like Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Francisco Lindor — along with support from Jorge Polanco — the capacity was clearly there.

The issue wasn't the absence of talent.

It was an absence of alignment.

Slow starts, injuries, and inconsistency meant that group never really existed at the same time in a stable way. The offense didn’t fail because it lacked pieces. It failed because those pieces never came together.

That’s a distinction I didn’t make clearly enough.

What I’ll Carry Forward

If there’s one lesson I take from this, it’s this:

A system can be well designed on paper and still be fragile in practice if too many of its outcomes are dependent on one another.

I leaned into the structure — maybe too much.

Going forward, I’ll spend more time asking a different question:

Not just “Does this make sense?”
But “How many things have to go right for this to hold?”

Because that’s where the real risk lives.

Final Thought

This isn’t a reversal of how I think about roster construction.

It’s a refinement.

The goal isn’t to be right from the start. It’s to get closer to the truth as the season reveals itself.

Right now, the 2026 Mets are doing exactly that — revealing where the assumptions held, and where they didn’t.

And for me, that starts with acknowledging where I didn’t see it clearly enough.


SAVAGE VIEWS – BACK TO THE FUTURE


HERE I GO AGAIN!


The current version of the New York Mets has a couple of things in common with the original 1962 expansion team. Both teams had a record of 10 wins and 20 losses in the first 30 games of the season. The 1962 team was managed by a clown who was at the very least entertaining. The present team is also being managed by a clown who is not at all entertaining. Thus far, two teams have fired managers with solid past records while Mendoza keeps on ticking.

I understand that Mendoza can only manage the team that was provided to him and admittedly this is a flawed team. However, day in and day out he makes very curious decisions. On Thursday, the decision to pull the lefty bat of Melendez after Soto’s double was a head scratching move. The goal was to move Soto to third and the pitcher was the much-maligned Lovelady.

What really gets me is the lack of development of our young players. Brett Baty is being asked to play three different positions. He is the best first and third baseman on your team. I wonder if not having a set position is impacting his offensive production. He’s a guy who is most effective when he sprays the ball around. Now, to his detriment, he has become strictly a pull hitter.

Mark Vientos should not be allowed to wear a glove. He’s a present-day Dick Stuart. His only position should be designated hitter. Actually, it may be time to check out the market for him. He might benefit at a new address.

Francisco Alvarez has shown flashes of being a capable player. Unfortunately, he’s not consistent enough. Hopefully, his bat will warm up as the weather heats up.

Ronny Mauricio is another young player whose development has been stalled. Another player whose future probably lies with another team.

Our best prospect, AJ Ewing, began the season in AA for reasons none of us could comprehend. He dominated AA and was finally promoted to Syracuse where he has had a phenomenal start. He may be the sparkplug this team needs. Had he started the season in AAA, he might have been added to the MLB roster by now. It’s a matter of time before he makes his debut.

These weekly postings are becoming a chore given the current state of the franchise. With at least three quality starting pitchers, the team should be competitive most games. However, even the expansion 1962 team of has-beens were a better offensive team than our current team. Right now, we are on pace to lose more than 100 games. That’s unlikely to happen with the expectation that Polanco and Lindor will return by the end of May.

Ray

May 1, 2026

Reese Kaplan -- How to Live Through the Remaining 2026 Nightmare


What would it take to make the suddenly 1962-ish Mets 2026 season seem somewhat more tolerable?  There are a number of scenarios to consider:


Making the Postseason

As long as we’re rolling out the statistically improbable fantasy outcomes, how about a New York Mets 2026 season ending with a playoff appearance?  It could happen.  Well, mathematically it is is possible.  Right now the club is playing at a won/loss record of 10-21, a winning percentage of just .323.  Yes, that is indeed very bad, but the newly minted 1962 Mets held a record for 62 years until tied and passed by the Chicago White Sox when a .250 winning percentage with 120 losses was the major league standard in baseball futility.  The Mets currently sit 11.5 games back at the close of the Nationals series and it is indeed possible for the club to spend the next 131 playing at a much more impressive record to equal what they did in 2025 when they finished with a .512 winning percentage at 83-79.  To get there the Mets would have to play at a winning percentage of .557 which extrapolates to a 90 win season long record just to reach 4 games over .500.  Yeah, the playoffs are possible but that’s quite a climb to make which would also require similar drops off the cliff from many other baseball teams league wide.


Wholesale Replacement of the People in Charge

Some people are on already painting the protest signs that read, “Fire Carlos Mendoza” as their panacea for all the things that have gone wrong thus far during this season.  Others are saving some paint to express the very same sentiment about David Stearns.  We’ve seen the results of wholesale roster rebuilding made by the latter and managed by the former.  It’s pretty ugly.  Carlos Mendoza didn’t suggest getting rid of Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz and Brando Nimmo were smart moves.  David Stearns didn’t make the necessary changes to help Mendoza win games when every single hitter on the roster not named Juan Soto was not having even a courtesy level of All Star consideration and while most pitchers are falling into that same category.  All the while the only actions taken by Stearns to help win games was watching the DFA announcements instead of executing actual trades which may or may not happen in late July when the season is already too far gone to have any impact on post season aspirations.


Staying Inside Instead of Going Outside for Roster Improvement

During this past offseason David Stearns held his version of a sales pitch to fellow ball clubs by offering up his minor league resources to help relieve them of payroll burdens or for rentals of players about to become free agents when the season ends.  We saw how that strategy worked out.  Maybe this time around the Mets should instead look at promoting players from the minor league system who have posted gaudy numbers and actually giving them an opportunity to play.  Even the folks ready to roast David Stearns over a flaming pit for sticking to Carson Benge are gradually warming up to him as he’s starting to see hard hit balls finding gaps and his below .100 batting average is threatening now to cross the Mendoza line.  Obviously not everyone who gets promoted is going to be the cream of the crop on day one, but after multiple years of significant playing time with embarrassing results, maybe it’s time to decide to cut them loose and try someone else since what you’re STILL doing continues to be not working. 

What would the remainder of the 2026 season have to look like for it to finish on at least a vaguely spin-worthy positive note?

5/1/26

Ernest Dove speaks with Brooklyn prospect Mitch Voit


Our chief prospect watcher Ernest Dove speaks to infielder Mitch Voit, the #7 prospect in the New York Mets' development organization.

Mitch was the #38 draft choice out of the University of Michigan in the 2025 draft.  He is currently playing for the Brooklyn Cyclones after a hot spring.

Here is the interview: <click here>

For all of Ernest's interviews, check out his YouTube channel.

Tom Brennan - The S.S. Mets Signals…May Day! May Day!



ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER LOSS FOR THE METS


 It is now May 1, and the crew is screaming “Mayday Mayday.”

The Mets cruise ship has been taking on water rapidly, as this season has gotten off to a titanically bad start.

Luke Weaver got his BS in college, no doubt, because he blew a big save yesterday, and that is no BS.

AJ Melendez was having a GREAT Offensive day, so what did Mendoza do late in the game? He brought in Slater to pinch hit for him. Slater failed.

Anyway, another day another loss.

Syracuse won two games. 

AJ Ewing? Has had one heck of a three game stretch in his triple AAA debut, with 7 for 12, a walk, and no Ks, and we may want to start to think that he might just be ready. Probably premature. Maybe not.

Ryan Clifford is not ready. Why? In Syracuse’s DH sweep, he was 0 for 7 with 5 Ks. 44 Ks on 28 games. 

Jack Wenninger was great - bring him up.

Lambert pitched well in relief, Ross did not.

Binghamton hit, and won. Parada had 3 hits, edging him closer to .200.

Brooklyn won 2-1 on 2 late runs. Antonio Jimenez is not hitting much, but did steal home.

St Lucie gave up lots of runs again. Peña and Guzman had fine offensive nights.

Let May begin!


Reese Kaplan -- Is Anyone Available to Play the Mets Outfield?


Word has filtered out that Luis Robert’s health may indeed require assignment to the IL to recover which would put the already weak NY Mets offense even worse than it is now.  To be fair, missing out on a .224 hitter shouldn’t necessarily cause anyone heartache, but .224 would be one of the top ten hitters on the Mets’ current “Noffense.”

Given the current state of the outfield it’s pretty pathetic.  Yes, Juan Soto is back though with some forearm soreness which is keeping him at the DH role instead of playing the outfield.  Then you have the likes of MJ Melendez who didn’t make the major league team out of Spring Training, Brett Baty reminding people why he’s no longer a starter, Tyrone Taylor whose defense does not make up for his lack of hitting skills, latest scrap heap pick Austin Slater and suddenly improving Carson Benge. 

Yes, the Mets need help out there.  The in-house options are not all that promising.  The club has one minor league outfielder available for a promotion in speedster Nick Morabito who at a .262 AAA average does not exactly scream, “Promote me now!”  Cristian Pache is hitting .307 but isn’t on the 40 man roster.  The same goes for .314 hitting Ji Hwan Bae. 

Consequently it is indeed reasonable to assume the front office should be looking outside the Mets outfield inventory but for options better than Slater.  One who may or may not merit consideration is outfielder/designated hitter/first baseman Eloy Jimenez who was just put on waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays while hitting .290 thus far for the 2026 season.  Yes, in the past he’s been a Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger winner with as many as 31 HRs in a season but has never quite put that level of productivity together again.  At age 29 what you see now is likely what you get but at the same time he’d provide more output than the likes of Slater, Melendez and Taylor.  Unfortunately at 6’4” and 250 pounds he’s not built like a stellar defensive player and the club likely will wait for the DFA period to expire before tagging themselves with his current salary by suddenly making him a Met.

Given the paucity of offensive options it is long overdue for the currently playing at a .345 winning percentage Mets, currently tied with the now Don Mattingly led Philadelphia Phillies for the worst record in the league.  It would seem that while a great many players are not performing to their expected capabilities that the guy who chose them is doing even worse.  In fact, since 2025 ended the only player not embarrassing the front office is the now injured .350 hitting Jared Young.  The rest of the newcomers who allegedly swing bats for a living are, well, not exactly threatening to win tin slugger awards, let alone silver ones.  

It would seem that even more pressing than the need to replace the manager or the POBO is the need to bring some real offensive power to the Mets.  Buying low isn’t working.  Buying high thus far isn’t working.  Giving up isn’t working.  Something’s got to give.

4/30/26

Tom Brennan - A Series of Trouncings in Metsville


THE METS ORGANIZATION IS BEST PICTURED LIKE THIS

 

Bad baseball and bad records abound in the Mets organization. 

I wish it were otherwise. I am not alone.

We all know the Mets’ very bad situation: 

They went from a 7-4 record to 10-20 collapse in just a few short “shock and awe” weeks.

Last night? 

They got trounced. 

Down 13-2, mid 7th, when I simply gave up. Let me know how the horror show ended. (OK, I peeked. 14-2 loss. Thankfully, they picked up a safety.) Peterson has a better ERA than Manaea (6.53 vs. 6.55).

Carl Edward’s Jr., meanwhile, between spring training and the regular season, in 14.2 IP, has allowed 3 earned runs and fanned 22. We all knew at the start of spring training that he’d be the Mets’ ace, right?

Combined, Lindor, Vientos, Taylor, Alvarez, and Robert have 34 RBIs. Sal Stewart of Cincy had 29 RBIs all by his lonesome.

Kidding (and disturbing facts) aside…

Let’s face it: 

1962 IS BACK! 

Or, if you prefer:

THE TRAGIC IS BACK!

Of course, fragile, injury-prone Luis Robert, Jr. might be headed to the IL. 

Roger Daltry heard that about Robert and asked, WHO’S NEXT? 


Syracuse? 

AJ Ewing did what was seemingly impossible for him, going hitless on Wednesday night - but only because Syracuse’s game was postponed. 

The S-Mets therefore remained at 14-13, slightly over .500, and making them the shining team beacon of light in the organization so far.


8-15 Binghamton? “Let’s not play two.”

The Polo Ponies followed up being no hit on Tuesday for the second time in April with an 8-2 loss in game one of a doubleheader. The hitters didn’t hit, except for a two run first inning, and starter Will Watson is now 0-4, 6.98. 

Not good.

In game 2, again there were 2 first inning Binghamton runs! A 3-0 Joander Suarez-supplied lead was narrowed to 3-2 in the 4th. Then, in the 5th, Suarez got pulled and the lead did too. Metoyer was awful. Down 5-3, heading to the 6th. Final? 5-3 loss. Their hitting stopped - again.

Jacob Reimer (.186) had 3 hits in the twin bill.


Next up, the Cyclones:

Their 5-17 record says it all - Brooklyn’s subglacial offense (.184) remained subglacial, with a 5-0 loss. Joel Diaz is sitting ugly at 0-4, 8.68. And Brooklyn is allowing opponents to score 6 runs on average per game. 

Not good. 

Mitch Voit had two of the squad’s 5 hits, and a couple of steals. After his 3 for 23 season start, he has hit well since (14 for 53, 3 HR, 10 RBIs.

As a point of offensive team comparison, a Winston Salem player named Caleb Bonemer has 11 home runs in 22 games, while Brooklyn’s entire team has 12 in 22 games.  Three SAL teams have between 32 and 38 homers already. OUCH!


St Lucie? “Let’s also not play two.”

The Lucites score a good number of runs, but the team’s pitching staff is severely struggling. “Like nothing I’ve ever seen”. 

161 runs allowed in 193 IP. Three other FSL teams have allowed 95 or less. 

How do you spell “disparity”?

A 7-6 first game 8 inning loss. 

One game 1 bright light, Elian Peña, had two hits.

In game 2, St Lucie fell to 10-13, losing a 7 inning affair by the score of 7-4, so on the evening, they allowed 14 more runs in 14 opponent innings. 

Pena? A hit and a walk (.346). 

And 19 y/o, recently promoted Eddie Lantigua added two RBIs in the 7th.

The two losses came despite their opponent Tampa trying to be generous, by making 8 errors in the short twin bill. They needed to have made 12.

RECAP:

With one April day left:

March/April have been brutal for this Mets organization. No sugar-coating it. 

This was an organization where both the Mets and its farm system were ranked by some in baseball’s top 10. 

How wrong were those projections, huh? How about #30 and #30, instead?

Outscored brutally by a combined 46 to 17 in 6 games last night? Egads.

And a combined 47-78 (.376) Mets teams’ win-loss record? Egads.

Of little solace in that the NY Yankees are 20-11.

Well, take comfort: the Mets’ teams’ combined May records are currently 0-0.

Green shoots? 

Every year, the optimists strive to see green shoots, when what Mets fans really need to see, but all too rarely do see, is a forest.

We simply have no Caleb Bonemer types.




Alex Rubinson - Throwing the Curve and Inducing Groundballs, Holmes is more than the Mets could have ever hoped for

When the New York Mets signed Clay Holmes ahead of the 2025 season, there were significant questions on if the dominant reliever could fully transition into becoming a full-time starter. We had seen examples with David Stearns deploying this strategy with the Milwaukee Brewers with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but those hurlers made the transition very early in their respective careers. On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year $44 million contract with the hopes of converting him into a starter. 

Unfortunately for the Bay Area team, that decision blew up in their faces. For Holmes, it may have not always been pretty, but the decision saw positive returns. The former New York Yankee tossed over 165 innings while pitching to a 115 ERA+ in his first season in Queens. Although we are only a month into the 2026 season, and the biggest question regarding Holmes has been stamina, he has appeared even more comfortable in the early goings during his second season in a big league rotation. 

Holmes turned in one of his more dominant outings on Tuesday against the Washington Nationals. The Nats offense has started to come back down to earth but had been surprisingly a solid unit to begin the 2026 campaign. Holmes went six shutout frames and only surrendered three hits and one walk. Earlier in the month, he shutout the Giants across seven innings and only allowed three hits in that contest as well. 


There might be reason to believe that Holmes will eventually come back down to earth. A 1.75 ERA is not sustainable for just about any pitcher (except maybe if your name is Paul Skenes). Still, all of Holmes’ pitches are returning plus value. According to Baseball Savant, his overall pitching run value of five is in the 89th percentile among all big leaguers. Both his fastball and offspeed run value are at two (he gets another run of value from his breaking stuff). The offspeed value is all the way up in the 88th percentile. It’s impressive when his breaking pitches are bringing up the rear but still place in the 72nd percentile. 


What has been most impressive is that Holmes is retaining his value despite a high volume of innings in the first month. Entering Wednesday,He currently ranks just inside the top 20 in innings pitched. In an era of the five-and-dive starting pitcher, Holmes is giving Carlos Mendoza’s squad length. That within itself is a valuable commodity. 


Holmes has brought back his curveball. Prior to 2026, Holmes had not thrown his curve since 2021. The curve replaces the slider, which he threw about 11% of the time a season ago. Whether it was Holmes’ decision or the Mets’ new pitching brain trust, the decision to replace the slider with the curveball has paid off. 


Last year, opponents slugged nearly .530 against the slider. Although he is still working in the curve (only thrown 37 total times), hitters have not mustered a single hit against the pitch. He has thrown it almost exclusively to lefties. In addition to re-introducing the curveball into his repertoire, Holmes has ditched the four-seam fastball. He never heavily relied on it, but he did throw it five percent of the time in 2025. This year, he has thrown the four-seamer a grand total of once. 


Holmes’ raw stuff has not been overpowering hitters. His strikeout rate (16th percentile), whiff rate (35th percentile) and even his hard hit rate (37th percentile) are nothing to brag about. Where Holmes makes his money is getting hitters to chase outside the strike zone. He is in the 74th percentile in chase percentage. 


Normally, one might think that would be associated with a higher whiff rate, but instead, hitters are making contact, but it’s on the ground. Holmes is in the 90th percentile in ground ball rate. He induces ground balls at over 55% of the time. In an era of opponents trying to lift the ball, being able to keep hitters on the ground is a premium skill. Those underlying statistics will allow Holmes to maintain solid numbers even if he isn’t supporting a sub-2.00 ERA within the ensuing months. 


This isn’t an anomaly either. From 2021-2023, when he was a dominant relief pitcher, Holmes' opponent pull air percentage was anywhere between 5.5-7.5 percent. Although that number has climbed since becoming a starter, he still maintains a very good pull air rate of just over 13%. That number might appear high given his reliever rates, but it still ranks relatively well when compared to the rest of the league. In the early part of this season, Holmes has cut off over 50 points in wOBA and his launch angle sweet spot is down to just under 25%. This goes a long way to keeping the ball on the ground and giving your defense the opportunity to make plays behind you. 


The pitch for Holmes to watch closely will be his sinker. He throws it nearly half of the time. Hitters are currently only batting .161 against his primary pitch, but the expected batting average is .283, which is an enormous jump. This isn’t to say that we should all of a sudden expect his sinker to get knocked around the ballpark, but it’s why his hot start might not be completely sustainable. Maybe Holmes has mastered the ability to get batters to hit the ball to where the defenders play, but the .161 average might start to trend upward, especially once the weather in New York warms up and the ball does carry farther. On the other hand, if Holmes can keep opponents on the ground, that might not be a problem.


When the Mets inked Holmes to a three-year contract, they were hoping he could give them a solid five innings every fifth day and slot into the backend of their rotation. Due to injuries and other starters underperforming, Holmes has been thrusted into a larger role. It’s a big risk when depending on a former reliever to give you quality starter innings over a six-month season. It’s not always going to be pretty and look as dominant as it did on Tuesday night, but in a time when Stearns has faced a lot of backlash for his roster construction, it appears he is being proven right in seeing a full-time starter in Clay Holmes.  


Paul Articulates - Carson Benge impresses in his first month


I found it very interesting to discover that Carson Benge has already accumulated 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) this year across three different outfield positions.  Benge, who is in his rookie season with the New York Mets, has brought fielding excellence to a team that went to considerable lengths during the off-season to improve their defense.

Typically, a team would like to ease a rookie into position by providing some stability and a cast of players around him for support.  This season, it has been anything but that.  Between the poor hitting up and down the lineup and the fragility of the Mets’ outfielders, Benge has had very little support at all.  He has shown that he is up to the task nonetheless.

So far this season, Benge has played left field in 13 games, right field in 12 games, and center field in 4 games.  Over those games, he has accumulated 56 total chances and made 54 put-outs for a fielding percentage of .964.  His speed and range have contributed to stellar numbers in the advanced metrics with the 3 OAA and 2 runs prevented.  His OAA numbers rank him fourth among MLB outfielders, and second in the NL behind Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Baseball Savant ranks him in the 94th percentile for his range, 93rd percentile for his arm strength, and 91st percentile for his sprint speed.  This equates to a superb defender across all outfield positions – and he has only just begun.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Savant


Carson Benge is having a little more trouble adjusting at the plate, getting off to a slow start with only a .188 batting average to date.  Benge has adjusted to the pitching at every level he has encountered in his baseball career, and the analytics are saying that he should be able to adjust at this level also.  He already has above average numbers for chase rate, whiff rate, and hard hit balls, and his average exit velocity of 91.1MPH is pretty impressive considering his low barrel %.  Once he has become accustomed to seeing the stuff that MLB pitchers can deliver, the barrel %, exit velocity, and hitting stats should begin to climb.

He may be the biggest bright spot for a team that continues to struggle to find its mojo on the field.  His steady play in the midst of the environment of turmoil caused by the club’s failings is a testament to his mental fortitude.  If and when this team picks up and the confidence builds, I expect to see Carson rise to new levels of performance that will have him ranked among the top rookies in the league.