MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #4 - SS - Elian Pena

 

The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

4.     Elian Pena

GROK -

Elian Peña is a 17-year-old shortstop (born October 19, 2007, in Azua, Dominican Republic.

He's a left-handed batter and right-handed thrower, listed at 5'10" and 180 pounds, and is widely regarded as one of the Mets' top prospects following a blockbuster international signing.

On January 15, 2025—the opening day of the international signing period—Peña signed with the Mets for a record-breaking $5 million bonus, the largest ever given by the franchise to an international free agent (shattering the previous high of $2.85 million to Yovanny Rodriguez in 2024). This was the highest bonus for any Latin American prospect in the 2025 class and the second-highest overall (behind Rōki Sasaki's $6.5 million with the Dodgers). It consumed most of the Mets' $6.26 million international bonus pool.

Peña, who trained with La Alianza academy in the Dominican Republic, was ranked as MLB Pipeline's No. 3 international prospect (behind Sasaki and Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez) and Baseball America's No. 2 (behind Sasaki).

David Stearns called him a "unique talent" with a left-handed swing, power, strike-zone awareness, and work ethic, noting he's already one of the top prospects on the island.

Peña is praised as a potential five-tool player with elite hitting ability for his age.

Hit tool: Plus-to-plus-plus bat speed, advanced plate discipline (rare for a teenager), excellent pitch recognition, and the ability to spray line drives to all fields. MLB Pipeline gave him a 65-grade hit tool.

Power: Projects for 25-30 HR potential as he adds strength to his lean, athletic frame (still growing physically).

Defense: Smooth actions at shortstop with soft hands, plus arm strength, good range, and instincts. He's expected to stick at SS long-term, though some project a future move to 3B or 2B for less demand on speed (which is average but playable).

Speed/Running: Above-average underway, 21 stolen bases in pro debut.

Overall: Baseball America grades him 55/Extreme risk, with high baseball IQ and leadership potential

2025 Performance (Pro Debut)

Assigned to the Dominican Summer League (DSL) Mets Orange (rookie level), Peña had a standout season despite starting 0-for-26:In ~55 games: .292/.423/.540 (.949 OPS), 9 HR (six in just two games—two separate three-HR games, making him one of only two pros in 2025 with multiple three-HR performances), 33 RBI, 46 runs, 35 walks, 21 SB (on 25 attempts).

ETA:      Around 2030, given his youth. Likely starts 2026 in the Florida Complex League (stateside rookie ball), with potential for quick rises if he dominates.

 

11-3-2025

Angry Mike/MM

Elian Pena was the most highly touted prospect the Mets have ever signed from an International free agent standpoint and even from a MLB Draft standpoint. His $5 Million signing bonus was almost twice as much as the previous club record ($2.85 Million - Yovanny Rodriguez) and close to matching Kevin Parada’s record signing bonus from the 2022 Draft. Needless to say expectations were massive for the young phenom, who many scouts deemed as one of the most polished and talented prospects they’ve ever seen.

Scouts compared him to Juan Soto because of his advanced pitch recognition, plus bat to bat skills, and burgeoning power potential. Scouts raved about his work ethic and high baseball I.Q., which is about as rare for a prospect his age, as was the 65 scouting grade he received for his “Hit Tool”. Only 1 other teenager received a 65 scouting grade for his “Hit Tool” (TerMarr Johnson - 70 Grade - 2022 MLB Draft) out of the thousands of prospects entering the professional ranks as free agents or via the MLB Draft.

Vlad Guerrero Jr, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Wander Franco, and Julio Rodriguez rank among the teenaged greatest prospects ever to be procured from the South American talent pool, and not a single one received a unanimous 65 scouting grade for their “Hit Tool”, Elian Pena was the first prospect ever to receive that distinction.

 

11-7-2025

Just Baseball

11. Elian Peña – SS – (DSL)

Height/Weight: 5’10″, 185 | Bat/Throw: L/R | IFA: $5M, 2025 (NYM) | ETA: 2029

The centerpiece of the Mets 2025 IFA cycle, Peña accounted for more than 80% of the Mets bonus pool, selling David Stearns and co. on his above average tools across the board and advanced left-handed stroke.

After an 0-for-26 start to his pro career, Peña OPS’d north of 1.000 the rest of the way, launching nine homers and walking more than he struck out, generating plenty of buzz heading into his 2026 season.

Hitting

Peña syncs his upper and lower half well for a teenage prospect, helping him repeat his moves and create leverage. He starts upright with his hands rested just above his shoulder, getting into his back side with a moderate gather and smooth, rhythmic hand load.

Of course, it’s more difficult to maintain rhythm against more challenging pitching, but Peña has better control of his timing and mechanics than most hitters his age. As a result, he is able to pull the ball in the air at a high clip, translating into nine homers and 23 extra base hits over his final 44 games of the 2025 season with a 35% ground ball rate.

Peña recognized spin well in the DSL, walking more than he struck out while producing strong numbers in left on left matchups. It’s early in his development, but Peña’s 2025 campaign made it easy to see why he was the crown jewel of the Mets IFA class.

Defense/Speed

An above-average runner, Peña made gains with his straight-line speed and overall quickness, helping his chances of being able to fend off a move to third base. How Peña progresses physically will play a large part in his defensive outcome. His plus arm and good hands would profile well at third base if he does slow a bit.

Outlook

Steve Cohen and David Stearns have made it a point to improve the organization’s ability to acquire international talent and made the biggest splash of the 2025 period outside of Roki Sasaki. The Mets will give Peña every opportunity at shortstop, where he has enough going for him to have a chance at sticking.

In the more likely event that he moves over to the hot corner, Peña’s offensive upside is exciting enough to meet the higher offensive bar the position demands and then some. His advanced blend of hit, power and plate discipline in the DSL should ease his transition stateside in 2026 with a chance to hit his way off of the Complex to Low-A quickly in his age 18 season.

 

11-17-2025 –

Running From The OPS      @OPS_BASEBALL

Elian Pena - New York Mets

Pena received the largest bonus ($5 million) for any Latin American prospect this season and showed exactly why. The 18-year-old posted a 144 wRC+ with 9 HR, 21 SB, and a 1:1 K/BB ratio. He had 2 3-HR games this season and has a fantastic toolset.

 

11-22-2025 –

MACK/MM

Elian Pena – Here he is. The 65-grade hitting tool-guy that signed in January 2025 for $5,000,000 (team total pool: $6.25mil) got off to a real, slow start this past season for the DSL Mets. Opened up 0-26. Send the check back! And then all the hype turned into reality. Finished the season at 9-HR, 33-RBI, 21-SB, .292/.421/.528/.949. It seems like there is nothing but up for this kid that will play 2016 as an 18-yr. old. 

There’s no reason to push him to St. Lucie on opening day. Jiminez is there. But, there is an outside chance he could. He definitely will finish there. My guess is he is FCL Mets bound for their opening day. Where is he going? I got people down there. They say they have never before seen someone this talented. They emphasized the word NEVER.

 

12-5-2025 

Angry Mike/MM

ELIAN PENA -> Stateside arrival, all eyes will be on the young phenom to see if he can build on his impressive pro debut.

-> Where will he start? Will he be fast-tracked like Jett Williams, if he hits the ground running?

Ernest Dove - My #21 Prospect: OF Eli Serrano

Outfielder Eli Serrano III lands at No. 21 on my New York Mets Top 30 Prospects countdown, bringing an intriguing mix of size, plate discipline and developing power to the organization’s farm system.

Serrano, who will be 23 for most of the 2026 season, was selected by the Mets in the fourth round of the 2024 MLB Draft during the early stages of the front office led by president of baseball operations David Stearns.

Although his early professional numbers have been modest, evaluators still see a player with a wide range of possible outcomes — from a platoon bat to a potential 20-plus home run hitter if his power fully develops.

Early pro numbers still developing, and Serrano’s professional sample size remains relatively small.

After appearing in just 17 games during his draft year in 2024, Serrano played 88 games in 2025 with the High-A affiliate Brooklyn Cyclones.  Across that stretch, the left-handed hitter posted a .222/.332/.358 slash line with a .690 OPS.

The offensive numbers don’t jump off the page, but context matters. Brooklyn’s home ballpark is widely considered pitcher-friendly, particularly for left-handed hitters due to heavy winds and spacious dimensions.

Plate discipline stands out

Despite the modest production, Serrano’s approach at the plate has drawn praise from evaluators.

Publications such as Baseball America have noted his ability to stay within the strike zone and avoid expanding at pitches outside of it. That disciplined approach gives him a foundation that could allow him to develop into an average or better hitter at the major league level.

The advanced strike-zone awareness also raises the possibility that Serrano could become a strong on-base percentage contributor as he climbs the system.

Power potential and physical tools

At roughly 6-foot-5, Serrano possesses a physically imposing frame that scouts believe could translate into significant power as he continues to mature.

Several evaluators believe the left-handed bat has the potential to develop into a 20-plus home run hitter if his power fully emerges at the upper levels of the minors.

Serrano also shows solid athleticism for his size. He has spent time in center field and has the range to handle the position, though his long-term fit could ultimately shift to a corner outfield spot where his size and power profile may play better.

Platoon questions remain

One area to monitor moving forward is Serrano’s performance against left-handed pitching.

During the 2025 season, he posted a .733 OPS against right-handed pitchers but struggled against lefties with a .569 OPS. That split raises the possibility that he could develop into a platoon bat if the issue persists.

Still, there have been encouraging flashes. Serrano has shown the ability to drive the ball the other way against left-handers, including opposite-field extra-base hits that hint at potential improvement.

2026 could be a pivotal season

Health and opportunity will be key factors for Serrano in 2026.

After playing fewer than 100 games last season, the next step is proving he can stay on the field and produce over a full minor league schedule. A promotion to Double-A would provide a clearer look at his true offensive potential.

Double-A is often considered the “prove-it” level in the minors, where prospects begin facing more advanced pitching and separating themselves from the pack.

If Serrano can translate his plate discipline and physical tools into consistent production, he could quickly rise in the Mets’ system.

For now, he remains an intriguing prospect with a wide developmental range — one whose next season could determine whether he settles in as a role player or emerges as a legitimate power threat in the organization’s outfield pipeline.

If you'd like to see all of my top 30 prospect list ranking player profiles and more, check out The New York Mets Dove Report on YouTube @ernestdove 

Reese Kaplan -- Right Field Continues to Be a Mets Black Hole

While the Mets are actively engaged in the concurrent Spring Training of 2026 while a large passel of players are off on their WBC exhibition games, it gives ample opportunities to those folks remaining in camp to get more innings of playing time in front of David Stearns, Carlos Mendoza and the rest of the team evaluation personnel.  This situation makes for some wild projections of capabilities that have never before been shown in the major leagues while simultaneously asking people to absorb holes in the batting order.  None of it is more clear than in the ongoing battle for right field.

If you take the preseason narrative to heart then Carson Benge is truly being given the chance in Port St. Lucie to play himself onto the Opening Day roster and to become the starting right fielder.  Thus far he’s certainly looked the part both as a solid defensive player and as an offensive threat despite not having done so even as high as the AAA level.  It’s not unknown for players to make the jump from AA dominance to major league opportunity though often it is for matters of roster deficit or injury rather than pure need.  Given the Benge conversion from two-way player to strictly an offensive one he has had rather limited exposure as a hitter with fewer than 500 professional ABs over his two years in the minors.  Some feel he could benefit at least from the first month or two in Syracuse until the weather warmed up and he demonstrated his ability to dominate against the highest minor league pitching before transitioning to the majors.

Therein, of course, lies the problem.  If not Benge then who gets right field?  The next up on most people’s agendas would likely be newly minted outfielder Brett Baty.  Many folks are totally sold on his second half offensive output from 2025 and fully expect he will replicate or even exceed that level of productivity in 2026 and in the future.  Right now as a man without a position he would be guaranteed regular ABs if he was handed the right field responsibilities on a daily basis while Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette deliver on the infield.  Of course, the problem with this approach can best be spelled MARK VIENTOS whose 2024 was even more dominant offensively than Baty was in 2025 but wasn’t able to deliver at that level the following year.  That same doubt is there about Baty as well.

It gets worse.  To read many scribes praise the veteran Mike Tauchman as a viable name to pencil in for the right field duties but going into his age 35 season his defensive skills are at best adequate but not dominant.  He’s never even had 340 ABs in a single season during his entire 8 year major league career.  The statistics nerds at BaseballReference.com project a 162 game output from Tauchman to provide 12 HRs, 56 RBIs and a .246 batting average.  For a frame of reference, Tyrone Taylor projects to provide 14 HRs, 56 RBIs while batting .238 and everyone agrees he is a viable but at best 4th outfielder.  What am I missing here about Tauchman somehow for the first time in his entire career being considered viable for a starting assignment?

Then there is younger and potentially more productive MJ Melendez.  The now former Royal has shown some flashes of the power and defense that made him a highly regarded prospect who never really put it together in his major league level of play.  For his career the now turning 27 year old has delivered not much better.  In 162 games he averages 19 HRs and 61 RBIs which is a bit better but it’s accompanied by a mere .215 batting average.  Is that stellar defense worth that kind of risk or do you believe the Mets’ new offensive coaching development will somehow trigger the better side of Melendez which has never before truly been achieved?

Frankly Carson Benge does look like the best solution as her provides a solid batting average, baserunning speed and adequate power.  His numbers should continue to improve as he gets accustomed to the rigors of being a full time offensive player.  The question is whether he’s the best answer right now or if a temporary placeholder is needed for 6-8 weeks to allow him to develop with less pressure?  Personally I could live with the latter day version of Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, getting regular assignments in right field rather than turning the assignments over to Tauchman or Melendez, though I’m still open to seeing what kind of outfielders emerge as trade targets as the preseason progresses.  I know, I know...many will say that new Player X would block Carson Benge but do remember that the first base and DH positions remain unresolved, so there would be room for someone new, too.

MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #5 - C - Chris Suero

 

The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

5.     Chris Suero

Will play 2026 as a 22/yr. old         also plays 1B & LF

2025 – A+/AA:    475-PA, 139-K, 70-BB, 16-HR, 68-RBI, 35-SB, .786-OPS

GROK -

Chris Suero (full name: Christopher Antonio Suero) is a 21-year-old catcher in the New York Mets' minor league system, known for his rare blend of power, speed, and versatility that makes him one of the more intriguing young backstops in baseball.

Born on January 27, 2004, in the Bronx, New York, Suero grew up in the Sedgwick Houses public housing project in the University Heights neighborhood, honing his skills on the city's gritty fields before pursuing his dream abroad.

At just 15 years old, he left the Bronx for the Dominican Republic, leveraging his Dominican heritage (through his parents) to qualify as an international free agent. He trained at the Academia Carlos Paulino in Nizao, impressing scouts despite not being a top headliner.

In March 2022, the Mets signed him to a modest $10,000 bonus—far below the multimillion-dollar deals for elite international teens—marking him as an undrafted gem rather than a blue-chip prospect.

5'11", 205 lbs; Bats and throws right-handed.

Positions: Primarily a catcher (60 games behind the plate in 2024), but his athleticism allows him to play first base (23 games in 2024), left field (28 games in 2024), and even contribute as a versatile utility player. Scouts compare him to Toronto's Daulton Varsho for his multi-positional upside.

Standout Traits: Suero's speed is elite for a catcher—he led all minor league catchers with 35 stolen bases in 2025 (25 in High-A, 10 across other levels). His swing features simple footwork, a short load, and an uphill path that generates power, though he can struggle with high pitches.

13.6% walk rate in 2024

With Francisco Alvarez entrenched as the Mets' top backstop, Suero adds valuable depth to a catcher-rich farm system. Fans and analysts see him as a "prospect nobody saw coming," with leadership traits already shining through (e.g., hyping teammates in Brooklyn). If he refines his defense and sustains the power-speed combo, a Citi Field homecoming for the Bronx kid isn't far-fetched.

ETA: 2026

MACK – look… I love this guy, but he has to come up with a way to stop trying to be the home run leader, work on the ability to make hits other than homers, and let his God-given strength take over. If he does this, he will hit around .250, smack 20-25 home runs, and make it to The Bigs.

 

10-28-2025

MACK/MM

Chris Suero – The Bronx born Suero put himself on the Mets map last season aster hitting 16 home runs at the A+/AA level. Also, offers tremendous versatility because he additionally holds his own in left and can also, if needed, can fill in at first. I expect him to get to know the city of Syracuse real well in 2026. Needs to work on his framing skills, cutting down the whiffs, and getting his overall BA/OBP up. My #2 catcher prospect.

 

10-28-2025               

STEVE SICA/MM

C/LF Chris Suero:

Suero brought his power to the desert as he’s taken advantage of the thin air Arizona has to offer this time of year. He’s mashed three home runs in his first eight games of the season and leads all Met prospects in OPS at .851. While these numbers might give him a shot to compete in the AFL home run derby around season’s end, Suero has struggled with making contact. His average sits at .242 and his strikeout total is at 16, including a four-strikeout night on Sunday October 26th.

Suero swings hard and when he makes contact the ball does go far. He’s the perfect hitter for the Arizona Fall League as the dry and cool desert air helps balls travel far. However, he’s not able to play all his games in this environment. There’s a lot of potential around Suero as he’s progressed nicely this season through MiLB, but he’ll need to improve his strikeout radio, and start taking a few more pitches to reach the next level.

 

11-2-2025

Who are the next young studs for the Mets?

C Chris Suero (No. 15 prospect, Double-A BNG)

2025 MiLB Totals:

115 G, 475 PA, .233/.379/.407, 88 H, 16 HR, 16 2B, 1 3B, 78 R, 68 RBI, 35 SB, 29.3%-14.7% K-BB%, .175 ISO, .316 BABIP, .375 wOBA, 141 wRC+

Latest Scouting Grades:

Hit: 40   Power:  Run: 60      Arm: 50    Field: 50     Overall: 45

MLB Comp: Daulton Varsho

Suero’s 35 steals last season reflected a near-doubling of his 2024 output (20), which itself was a major explosion from the seven he tallied across his 2022-2023 rookie ball campaigns. When you pair that with steady, year-over-year offensive improvements and legitimate defensive flexibility in the outfield, I don’t think the growing buzz is at all misplaced.

(Seriously, when’s the last time this franchise had a catcher who could hit for power, steal bases, and play the outfield? Have they ever?)

Now, unlike Reimer and Ewing, Suero’s raw hit tool still needs a bit of work. His 139 strikeouts ranked second-most in his group; his 29.3% K-rate was top of the class. He likes to swing, and he swings hard — his tendency to swing over fastballs is documented. 

He also hits the ball on the ground a lot: Suero had the worst line-drive rate among his class, alongside the second-most severe tendency to hit pull-side (55%). That pull power is great if you’re keeping the ball up, but hitting it on the ground to the same spot repeatedly can turn an otherwise dangerous hitter into a predictable one very quickly.

Still, Suero’s ~15% walk rate and 70 walks both ranked seventh in his group, and his HR/FB ratio ranked sixth, so the untapped power and plate discipline tools are clearly there. If he can learn to keep the ball in the air and start spreading it around the field a bit, I have no doubt his already-solid .317 BABIP will skyrocket.

All told, Suero is an incredibly promising prospect with excellent defensive skills to back up a developing bat and quietly freakish athletic tools. Looking at the numbers, he already seems to be the most complete catching prospect in the Mets’ system. It feels like we’ve barely started to scratch the surface with this guy, and I don’t doubt he’ll be sharing the MLB spotlight with Alvy before we know it.

 

11-7-2025

JUST BASEBALL

15. Chris Suero – C/1B/OF – (Double-A)

Height/Weight: 6’0″, 200 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $10,000, 2022 (NYM) | ETA: 2026

A unique profile, Suero continues to see action behind the dish, in the outfield and at first base. He’s a plus runner with a good arm, inspiring the Mets to continue to move him around the diamond. He made a leap in the power department in 2025, launching 19 homers between High-A and Double-A with a career-best 35 stolen bases as well.

He is pull-happy, but successfully pulls the ball in the air at a high clip with above average exit velocities. Higher end pitching velocity could make Suero looked rushed at times, hedging with the ability to hammer mistakes far more consistently, OPSing north of 1.000 vs sliders.

While the hit tool will likely be fringy at best, his unique skill set could position him like a more athletic David Fry. His plus wheels, above average pop and defensive versatility helps his chances of sticking on a roster.

 

11-8-2025

Tom Brennan/MM

15. C/1B/OF Chris Suero

Bronx-born Suero has almost the whole package:

He has speed, power, clutch hitting, and versatility including catching, but capable in the outfield and first base, too.. Can he hit high caliber pitching? Probably eventually well enough. 

But his Ks are high, and lefties so far have mystified him.  In 2025, between High A and AA, he hit .233 with 16 HRs and 68 RBIs in 475 PAs AND stole 35 bases. But he fanned 139 times, and that has to come way down. Of course, he was just 21 this season, and clearly on the learning curve. 

He walked at a very high rate (70 times), giving him a .379 OBP, and I think that my prescription of greater aggression on strike one may lower the K rate somewhat, but will help drive down the Ks. Get those Ks down, and he is Top 5.

At 5’11, 205, he seems to be built much like a former Met:

Yoenis Cespedes. 

SUERO. He has such a high ceiling, if those Ks can only COME DOWN.

ATHLETE!

In the Arizona Fall League, Suero, through Thursday November 6, was hitting a potent .286/.359/.571, and was 2nd in AFL HRs with 5 bombs in 14 games, with 14 RBIs and 7 for 7 in steals.  Dynamite!

 

11-13-2025 –

 @The_CallUpPod

Chris Suero has continued his great 2025 season in the Arizona Fall League!

.920 OPS

5 HR

14 RBI

The 21-year-old catcher is one of only three players in the league to reach the five home run mark 

 

12-1-2025

Paul/MM

Chris Suero, a talented prospect with more to offer than just a third backup catcher option.  You see, he is not the typical catching prospect.  He has defensive versatility and un-catcher-like speed.  Suero can play left field and he can play first base. Not only that, but his scouting grades show plenty of talent in all five tools:

Suero Scouting Grades: Hit: 40; Power: 50; Run: 60; Arm: 50; Field: 50

Suero was an international signing in 2022 when he was only 18 years old.  He spent two years in the Dominican Republic and Florida complex leagues, then moved to St. Lucie in 2024.  After he compiled a 141 wRC+ there, he was moved to Brooklyn where he finished the season.  He was then invited to the prestigious Arizona Fall League, where he continued on his tear, slashing .283/.353/.567 (.920 OPS).  He also stole 8 bases in 15 games. Suero is currently listed as the #15 prospect in the Mets system.

Let’s be clear – I am not stating that he is ready for the majors in 2026, but I fully expect him to make the AA roster to start the season and if he handles that level of pitching he will see his trajectory continue to climb.  I am not trying to jump over Parada yet, but Parada does not appear to be moving smoothly through the AA/AAA levels.  His arm has been exposed as a weakness and except for a few surges his bat has been a disappointment.

If Suero survives the AA/AAA gauntlet better than Parada, he could become an option for a MLB roster as early as 2027.  That would provide a bench option for 1B/LF/C/DH/PH that uses only one spot on the 26-man roster, which is something that not many MLB teams have at their disposal.  We can only dream....

 

12-6-2025 –

Angry Mike/MM

CHRIS SUERO -> Dude has become a folk-hero of sorts in the #Mets Farm  System. All he does is mash homers or walk & then steal bases. Possesses a rare skill-set for a catcher, he’ll start in AA, & spend the whole year there.

-> If Suero starts off hot, will he be fast-tracked to AAA, or is he on the Mauricio trajectory, where he’ll now move 1 level each season regardless of how he performs. Or do we get him to AAA as fast as possible anticipating a potential arrival in Queens for 2027, with Torrens most likely departing via FA?

 

Tom Brennan: Competitive Tax Thoughts; GREAT SCOTT! And More…

 

LUXURY DOESN'T COME CHEAP

 

Prior to Steve Cohen, the Mets were owned by Real Estate magnates named the Wilpons. Maybe you heard of them.

Unlike Mr. Cohen, who is a multi billionaire, the Wilpons needed strong ongoing cash flow to fund not only the baseball team, but also their real estate projects.

Having to pay a baseball competitive balance tax in any given season meant less money being available for real estate projects. Compounding that was the fact that the Wilpons invested quite a bit of money with Jerry Madoff, hold off one of the largest frauds in the nation‘s history until, perhaps the current Somalian fraud. 

My cousin Kevin Bell, whom I haven’t spoken to in a number of years, was an attorney for SIPC and he and his team were instrumental in massive recoveries related this fraud far beyond early estimates. 

A recent SIPC directive noted that cumulative recoveries to aggrieved former investors total $14.67 billion, with still more to come. It probably allowed the Wilpons to hold onto their team as long as they did, assuming they did in fact receive distributions.   

Joe Nocera in Investor Perspectives (in conjunction with Bloomberg) wrote the following in 2020:

“The revelation that Madoff had been running a decades-long fraud was a disaster for Messrs. Wilpon and Katz. The $500 million was gone, of course. 

“And in 2011, the trustee, Irving Picard, sued the two men, demanding that they turn over $1 billion — $300 million in so-called fictitious profits and $700 million in principal, an amount the trustee said they had pulled out of Madoff’s firm since 2002. 

“The trustee argued that the two men either knew that Madoff was a crook or should have known, given all the red flags. After a long, public — and, for the two men, humiliating — battle, Wilpon and Katz settled with the trustee in March 2012, agreeing to pay $162 million.

“Wilpon insisted that the money lost to Madoff’s Ponzi scheme wouldn’t have any effect on the Mets. But that wasn’t remotely true. The Mets had enormous debts: It had to pay NYC millions of dollars in interest on the bonds that had been sold to build its new ballpark, Citi Field. The team itself regularly lost $50 million to $75 million a year, according to someone who has seen its books. Wilpon owned the SportsNet New York (SNY) regional sports network, which was profitable but also carried a hefty debt load.

“To stay afloat, the Mets took an emergency $25 million loan from MLB in 2010. The following year, the team borrowed $40 million from Bank of America. To repay those loans, and to generate some cash, Wilpon sold 4% stakes to 12 limited partners in 2012 for $20 million each. Even so, the team and the TV network still carried a combined debt load of some $500 million, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“Did the team’s troubled finances affect its performance on the field? Of course they did. 

“In 2008, the year the Madoff fraud was exposed, the Mets had the second-highest payroll in baseball. By 2013, the Mets payroll ranked 23rd and was less than a third of their crosstown rivals, the Yankees. (By 2020, the Mets payroll had climbed back to fifth place.) Time and again, the team failed to bid for prominent — and expensive — free agents.

“The Mets had one terrific season, 2015, when they lost in the World Series. But overall, the team had a miserable decade. Since 2009 through 2020, the Mets have had only three winning seasons and two post-season appearances. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the Mets came in last place in their division.

“Today, the Mets’s finances are as precarious as they have ever been. The team is likely to lose $200 million — yes, $200 million — on the 2020 season. It has dipped heavily into a $250 million revolving loan from JPMorgan Chase. And the team owes $45 million in Citi Field bond payments.

“You would think that when a seller of an asset is in such dire straits, potential buyers would try to pick it up on the cheap. But that’s not happening. Cohen’s winning bid is reported to be an astonishing $2.45 billion — which, if Major League Baseball approves the sale, would be the largest amount ever paid for a sports franchise in the U.S. And that doesn’t include SNY, which Wilpon has kept out of the sale.

“So let’s recap: A man who should have known better stupidly uses a Ponzi schemer as his banker. When the Ponzi schemer gets caught, the man’s businesses, including his baseball team, lose gobs of money. In most subsequent seasons, he mostly fails to field a competitive team. The team loses money year after year. Debt piles up. Yet this team that was worth $400 million when he took control 18 years earlier is going to be sold for $2.45 billion.

“Is there any other business on earth where an owner can be as incompetent as Wilpon and come away richer than ever? As a plaything for the 1%, nothing compares to a sports franchise — and when a franchise becomes available, price becomes no object.  

Anyway, let me briefly get back to the CBT. I had long thought that the Mets had paid no luxury tax ever under the Wilpon era. 

I was slightly wrong..I saw this in Wikipedia:

“The 1994 MLB season was cut short due to the Major League Baseball strike. A primary source of conflict leading up to the strike was the tremendous power club owners had over the salaries of players on their respective teams. Small market teams felt handcuffed by their relatively anemic budgets while players from larger market teams were unwilling to accept the substantial pay cuts that a salary cap would likely have imposed. This resulted in a compromise in the 1996 collective bargaining agreement, which imposed MLB’s first luxury tax.

“The first agreement stated that the top five salary teams in each year would pay a 34% fine on each dollar a team spent beyond halfway between the salaries of the fifth and sixth teams. For example, if the fifth-highest salary team had a payroll of $100 million and the sixth-highest salary team had a payroll of $98 million, the top five teams would pay 34% on each dollar they spent over $99 million.”

This calculation hit the Wilpon-led Mets for a modest 1999 CBT totaling $1.138 million. 

Over the remaining 20+ years that the Wilpons or man owners of the team, they paid not a nickel in CBT, as the tax calculation formula changed and was easier to avoid by simply not spending too much on salaries.

Mr. Cohen, the subsequent main franchise owner, has been levied     SO MUCH CBT. In 2022-2025, the CBT totaled a whopping $320 million:

New York Mets

$30,773,938

$100,781,932

$97,115,609

$91,637,501

So there you have it. Lot of CBT money, wouldn’t you say?  

Nearly 300 times as much CBT as the Wilpons ever incurred.

Well, that is likely ALMOST true since Wilpons’ Sterling Equities entity still owns 5% of the team. At 5% of $320 million, their share would be $16 million.

GREAT SCOTT!!

That would have been Perry White’s reaction if he saw Christian Scott pitch against the Israeli squad on Wednesday.

You remember George Reeves’ buddy Perry White, don’t you, from Superman?

Well, Scott on Wednesday? He was SUPER, MAN!

Two reasons:

1) 80% (40) of his pitches were for strikes, as he fanned 5 in 2.2 IP.

2) Scott threw 50 (count ‘em, 50) pitches. Durable?  Uhh, ya!!!!!

Great news about the prospects of our post-TJS Great Scott.

THE CRUSHER

I SAW THIS IN THE NY POST ON SATURDAY - AND SMILED:

 “Luis Robert Jr. homered in a minor league game on a back field in Port St. Lucie. Carlos Mendoza said Robert “continues to crush pitching” and will play center in minor league games every other day through Wednesday’s off day as he slowly preps for the regular season after being plagued by lower-body injuries with the White Sox.”

I DO LOOK FORWARD TO THE SLOWLY PREPPING CRUSHER BECOMING A DAILY CRUSHER. MAYBE HE CAN CRUSH 40 FOR US THIS YEAR.

“I SAY, HOLMES, OLD CHAP”

Clay Holmes dazzled against not-so-great Britain, hurling 3 scoreless frames and fanning 6.

Saturday Highlights - Mets 3, Cards 2

Saturday brought an away game against St. Louis and Kodai Senga's return to the mound as the starter.

Position Scrabble  - Polanco to DH, Baty to 1B

Getting pretty tired of 7-8-9 lineup of Rojas/Pache/Cluff.  I thought Cluff was a reggae singer.

Senga was cruising through the first 1.2 innings but then gave up a home run to someone named Joshua Baez. Gave up a second homer in the third to someone named Miquel Ugueto. Was done after 2.2-IP: 2 homers to minor leaguers in less than three innings makes you feel the same uneasiness you felt the day before when Sean Manaea pitched.

The Mets scratched back and wound up winning 3-2. 

Mike Tauchman doubled in Jackson Cluff in the sixth for their first run. A throwing error brought Corey Collins home in the seventh then Wyatt Youbg singled in Collins again in the 8th for the winner.

Two hits for Brett Baty (.375).

Six scoreless innings by Luis Garcia, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley and Jack Wenninger (3-IP, 5-K, 2.70).

Another errorless game.

RVH - The Blueprint for 93: Part II – The October Contraction

 

Preamble: The Map to 594 Outs

In Part I, we defined the “lung” of the 2026 season: a 9–11 man pitching collective designed to absorb the 1,458-inning friction of the regular season by living near a 5.4 IP/GS benchmark. We built a floor that ensures our highest-leverage arms arrive in September fresh, not frayed.

But October isn’t won by a crowd. It’s won by the concentration of talent. As the calendar turns, the organizational goal shifts from covering innings to securing outs.

If you’re going to win a World Series from the Wild Card line, the planning math is brutal, because you have to be ready for the longest path.

13 wins. 594 outs.

This is the October Contraction, the shift from a deep rotation tree to a strike force.

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The Hypothesis: Shifting the Currency from Innings to Outs

During the regular season, innings are the currency of survival. In the postseason, we pivot to outs. This isn’t just semantics, it’s a tactical reset. In a short series, the “three-times-through-the-order” penalty is the primary predator of a lead.

By shifting to an out-based management style, we leverage the freshness delta we built in July. We don’t need Freddy Peralta or Nolan McLean to “gut out” the 7th inning. We need them to deliver 15 to 18 high-intensity outs, then hand the game to leverage arms before the opposition adjusts.

October doesn’t reward stubborn. It rewards timing.

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The Map to the Ring: 594 Outs

This is the maximum road, the planning ceiling, and that’s the only honest way to build an October blueprint without lying to yourself.

Round	Format	Max Games	Outs Required	Starter Goal	Bullpen Goal
Wild Card	Best of 3	3	81	15–18 outs	9–12 outs
Division Series	Best of 5	5	135	18 outs	9 outs
LCS / WS	Best of 7	14	378	18+ outs	9 outs
Total	—	22	594	378 outs	216 outs

That’s why October is contraction: fewer pitchers, shorter stints, higher leverage, earlier hooks.

That’s the contraction: fewer starter outs, higher leverage, earlier hooks, and no third-time-through-the-order charity.

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The Efficiency Metric: Managing “Pitches Per Out” (PPO)

To win 13 games, we have to manage fatigue like it’s payroll. That’s where Pitches Per Out (PPO) matters. Think of PPO as the simplest fatigue tax there is: when it rises, your starter hits the wall sooner.

In the regular season, an efficient pitcher averages roughly 5.1 PPO. In October, stress and hitter selectivity drive that number up. Success is won in the margin.

• The logic: If Peralta secures 18 outs at 5.3 PPO, he exits at ~95 pitches with the lead intact. If PPO climbs to 6.0 due to fatigue or traffic, he’s at ~108 before the 6th inning ends.

• The contraction: Because the bullpen arrives rested, we don’t have to chase 108. We pull the trigger at 95, maintain the velocity gap, and transition to leverage before the lineup adjusts a third time.

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The Personnel: The October “Strike Force”

1) The Starting Trio: The First 15–18 Outs

Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, and David Peterson are the “engine” in the only way October cares about: they take the first chunk of outs and keep the game in a leverage shape.

• Peralta: the strikeout profile that stabilizes Game 1.

• McLean: the power sinker/sweeper that can erase innings with one ground ball when October traffic appears.

• Peterson: the left-handed counterweight that neutralizes key pockets and keeps the ball out of the air when pressure rises.

2) The Hybrid Weapon: Kodai Senga

The most important pivot in the blueprint is Kodai Senga.

After a managed regular season, Senga becomes the October hybrid, the guy you deploy for “swing outs,” the 6 to 9 outs that decide a series. The bridge in a Game 4. The leverage patch when a starter exits early. The weapon when you need dominance but not 100 pitches.

If Part I was about creating breath, Part II is about spending it.

3) The Bullpen Ladder: The Final 9 Outs

October doesn’t care who got “saves” in July. It cares who can take outs when the leverage spikes. The bullpen is a ladder, not a democracy.

Back-end leverage (highest stress outs, smallest margin):

• The top leverage righty (e.g., Devin Williams)

• The top leverage lefty (e.g., A.J. Minter)

Precision layer (matchup control, clean innings, low traffic):

• Right-handed strike-thrower who can live on the edges (e.g., Luke Weaver)

• Left-handed matchup/control arm who can steal outs without drama (e.g., Brooks Raley)

Multi-inning bridge (when the game breaks shape):

• A starter-background arm who can give you 4–9 outs without panic (e.g., Tobias Myers)

That last category is the October breaker bar. It’s how you survive the one early hook without burning the entire ladder behind it.

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The Reserve Capacity: Recursive Strength

What separates the 2026 Mets from most Wild Card teams is reserve capacity. Another season of development turns “prospects” into usable October tools.

• Christian Scott and Jonah Tong: not just depth pieces, but insurance outs. If a series goes long, 3–4 competitive innings from this tier prevents the leverage group from being burned into mush.

• Ryan Lambert and Dylan Ross: power arms waiting in the wings. If PPO spikes and contact quality turns into a pattern, velocity becomes the fastest correction.

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The Takeaway: Strategy over Survival

Winning a World Series is about the concentration of talent. You use 9–11 arms to survive the summer so that you have your best weapons intact in the fall.

By building a staff that can expand to survive the war of attrition and contract to deliver leverage precision, the Mets move from hope to design. We’re no longer asking pitchers to hang on through October. We’re putting them in position to dominate it.

13 wins. 594 outs. One ring.