2/7/26

MACK - Top 28 Prospects - #20 - RHRP - Saul Garcia

 


The excitement about the Mets' prospect pipeline has been building year over year as the team improves their domestic and international scouting.  Many of the Mets' picks are being discussed throughout baseball, so Mack has boiled it down to the top 28 to give the readers a glimpse into the team's future.  This series will run for 28 days, counting down from #28 to #1.  The entire list can be viewed by clicking "2026 Top 28 Prospects" on the top menu bar.

20.    Saul Garcia



2025 -     A+ Brooklyn:   30-apps, 4-2, 1.85, 1.26, 6-SV, 34-IP, 22-BB, 59-K

 AA Binghamton:          8-apps, 1-0, 1.32, 1.02, 0-SV, 13.2-IP, 6-BB, 17-K

GROK -        

Saul García is a right-handed relief pitcher in the New York Mets minor league system.

 Born on June 11, 2003, in Naguanagua, Venezuela, he stands at 6’0” and weighs 180 lbs. He will play 2026 as a 23/year old

 García signed with the Mets as an international free agent around his 18th birthday and has since emerged as a promising prospect, ranking No. 29 on MLB Pipeline’s Mets Top 30 Prospects list in the 2024-2025 offseason

García is considered a late bloomer who has shown significant growth since signing with the Mets. In 2024, he pitched at High-A Brooklyn, where he demonstrated potential as a multi-inning reliever, though the Mets have plans to potentially stretch him out as a starter. His development has focused heavily on improving his command, as strike-throwing is a key area for growth at the lower levels. Mets director of player development Andrew Christie has highlighted García’s work ethic and potential, noting his connection to the Flores family and their shared dedication to the game.

In 2024, García’s performance included a 3.86 ERA over an unspecified number of innings, with a focus on refining his pitch arsenal and control. While his ultimate role may be in the bullpen due to his current skill set, the Mets are keeping him in a starter’s role for now to maximize his development.

Pitch Repertoire

García’s pitching arsenal consists of three primary pitches, with his fastball and slider being his standout offerings:

Fastball: Described as a “real interesting” pitch, García’s fastball sits in the mid-to-high 90s and is noted for its ability to “get above barrels very well,” indicating good life and deception. This pitch is considered Major League average or better when he’s at his best, making it a key weapon in his arsenal.

Slider: His slider, thrown in the low-80s, features a sweeping break and is also rated as a Major League average pitch. It complements his fastball well, generating swings and misses when executed properly. The slider’s movement and velocity make it a strong secondary pitch.

Changeup: García’s changeup is less developed compared to his fastball and slider. It’s described as a work in progress, but he’s been working to refine it, adding depth to his repertoire as he develops.

Outlook    García’s current profile suggests a future as a high-leverage reliever, though the Mets are still exploring his potential as a starter. His ability to throw strikes consistently will be critical to his progression, as command issues are a common challenge for young pitchers. His fastball-slider combination gives him a solid foundation.

As of 2025, he’s likely to continue climbing the Mets’ minor league ladder, potentially reaching Triple-A Syracuse if he maintains his trajectory.

MACK – I’m a big fan of the reliever no one writes about. I expect Saul to be done with his minor league career by the end of next season and be ready to join the Mets pen come opening day 2027.

 

11-6-2025

Tom Brennan/MM

19. RHP Saul Garcia

Saul here was a hard throwing wild man pre-2025.  Would he harness it in 2025?  YES! 

Still on the wild side, but improving, righty Saul Garcia was 5-2 in AA and High A, with a 1.70 ERA and a .173 BAA.  He walked 28, but fanned 76 in 48 innings, and 6 of 7 in saves.

The 22 year old 6’0, 180 Garcia from Venezuela has fanned 325 in 236 career innings.  The Mets always need pen arms, and he should debut with the Mets some time in 2026, one would think.

 

11-16-25 – John From Albany/MM

RHP Saul Garcia went 5-2 with a 1.70 ERA for Brooklyn and Binghamton in 2025,  He had 76 Ks in 47.2 innings.  In September, Baseball America had him on their list of 10 best performing fastballs in 2025. They noted: "Pitching from a lower release height, Garcia sits 94-96 mph with more than 2500 rpm of spin on average."  If he doesn't get added to the 40-Man or the Syracuse Roster to keep him out of the minor league portion, there is a good chance he will be selected.

 

12-2-2025

Steve Sica/MM

RHP Saul García:

When looking at the entire Met system in 2025, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better season than the one that Saul García put together. Across High-A and Double-A, García made 38 appearances, pitched in 47 innings, and had an ERA of just 1.70. He faced a total of 202 batters and allowed a home run to just three of them. His 1.32 ERA for Binghamton helped the team win its first Eastern League title in over a decade.

This season was a revelation for García, who, up until 2025, had struggled in the Minors since joining the Mets system in 2021. However, this year, the Mets opted to use him as a reliever instead of a starter, and the experiment couldn’t have gone better. The Mets left him unprotected in next week’s draft, and now will have to wait and see if García’s turnaround continues in their organization, or if they will have to watch his next chapter on another franchise.

 

12-2-2025

Ernest Dove      @ernestdove

My ongoing concern is losing RP Saul Garcia. I continue to see him as a Dedniel Nunez/Jerrys Familia type pen arm at his best. Command is the obvious concern.

 

1-17-2026

MACK/MM

Saul Garcia – a recent addition to the 40, I expect Garcia to mirror Lambert and be a mainstay at Syracuse in 2026, the difference being they should not give him a promotion at any time in 2026 to Queens. 2027 is the year of Garcia.


RVH - Reading the Season: The Mechanics and Rhythms of 162

 


The 2026 baseball season is rapidly approaching, with less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. For fans, this is usually the time of year dominated by “What if?” and “Who’s next?” We argue over roster spots and projected win totals, trying to predict the unpredictable.

But as we transition into a new season, it’s worth stepping back and examining the actual mechanics, rhythms, and characteristics of a 162-game MLB season. To understand what we are about to watch, we first have to understand the instrument itself.


An Organic Evolution: America’s Summertime Rhythm

The 162-game schedule isn’t a historical accident or a dusty relic of the radio era. It is an organic evolution, shaped by how the sport is played and how it has always been consumed.

Unlike other sports built around scarcity and once-a-week spectacles, baseball evolved as a daily cadence. The three-game series, the local club, the routine of checking in night after night — these weren’t design flaws. They were features. The series is the smallest unit that allows variance to breathe.

Biomechanically, baseball’s lower per-game intensity made daily repetition possible. Culturally, that repetition turned the game into America’s summertime rhythm — a steady presence that doesn’t demand full attention all at once, but instead provides a continuous signal over six months.


The Truth in the Volume: A Variance-Resolution Machine

Why 162 games? Because baseball is a high-variance, low-intensity (per game) sport that requires an enormous sample size just to know what’s true.

In short bursts, luck — or ignition — can win. Over 162 games, the random bounces, weather effects, and late-inning bloops eventually flatten out. The season functions as a variance-resolution machine.

Variance doesn’t fade gradually. It collapses. That collapse is the Variance Cliff.

A .300 hitter still fails 70% of the time. Even an elite .400 OBP player fails 60% of the time. Baseball is a game of constant failure, and the marathon isn’t designed to avoid it — it’s designed to exhaust luck until only structural reality remains.


The Three Buckets of a Season

Every year, regardless of team quality, the 162 games naturally settle into three analytical buckets. These aren’t precise league constants, but they’re remarkably stable year to year and extremely useful for diagnosis. For simplicity, think of a 30 / 30 / 40 split:

  • One-Run Games (≈30%)
    Roughly 48–50 games. This is the coin-flip bucket, dominated by late-inning variance.

  • Blowouts (5+ Runs) (≈30%)
    Another 48–50 games. This is the separation bucket, where talent gaps and system dominance show up most clearly.

  • Competitive Games (2–4 Runs) (≈40%)
    About 65 games per season. This is the grind — the largest segment and the true test of roster depth, execution, and organizational health.


Successful vs. Unsuccessful Seasons

The difference between a playoff-competitive team and a non-playoff team isn’t just the final record. It’s how the team performs inside these buckets.

Game Type

Successful Seasons
(2022, 2024 Avg)

Non-Playoff Seasons
(2021, 2023, 2025 Avg)

Blowouts (5+ Runs)

.602

.528

One-Run Games

.610

.470

Competitive Games

.558

.457

The key insight isn’t the blowouts or the coin flips.

It’s the Competitive Middle.

Notice where the widest separation lives: games where neither team ever pulls away.


Why the Competitive Middle Is the Diagnostic Core

Blowouts are about talent. You can win them because your ace dominates or your star hits two home runs.

One-run games are about variance. Even elite teams rarely sustain high winning percentages in these without luck.

The Competitive Middle is different.

These games are won because your fourth starter gives you six innings, your middle relief bridges the gap, and your lineup executes without relying on heroics. A three-run lead in the seventh inning isn’t a coin flip. It’s a test of structure and process.

If the season is a variance-resolution machine, the middle 40% is its primary filter.


The “So What”: Why the Season Demands a Grind-Capable Roster

If the 162-game season is a variance-resolution machine, then the Competitive Middle is where that machine actually does its work.

Blowouts reveal talent ceilings. One-run games magnify luck. But the 2–4 run games — the middle 40% of the season — are where rosters are stress-tested for structural integrity. These games don’t reward brilliance or magic. They reward depth, redundancy, and mistake tolerance.

This is where the idea of a system-complete roster matters.

A grind-capable roster doesn’t need everything to go right. It needs the capacity to absorb what inevitably goes wrong — a short start from the fourth starter, a middle-relief arm having an off week, a lineup that has to win without its stars carrying the night. In the Competitive Middle, teams win because the system can survive a mistake without cascading into failure.

This is also where seasons quietly unravel.

When the Competitive Middle collapses, the roster turns into a consumptive sink. Losses stop being isolated events and begin to compound. The team is forced to win nearly every coin-flip one-run game just to stay afloat — a biological and statistical impossibility over six months. This is how competitive seasons become survival tests.

The core takeaway isn’t that elite talent doesn’t matter. It’s that talent alone can’t carry the grind. Over 162 games, the season demands a roster built not just for upside, but for durability under continuous stress.

That’s the lens this series will use to evaluate 2026 — not whether the Mets can reach a theoretical ceiling, but whether they are finally constructed to avoid the structural failures that have undone recent seasons.


The Competitive Middle as the Floor

Playoff teams use the Competitive Middle as their floor.

In the 101-win 2022 season, the Mets won .645 of these games. In the unsuccessful 2023 season, that number collapsed to .406.

Strong teams don’t need everything to break right in one-run games to survive. They consistently win enough of the 2–4 run grinds that a bad week of coin flips doesn’t derail the season. They “gate” losses, typically staying above .500 in all three buckets at the same time.

That’s the difference between noise and structure.


What Comes Next

As we get closer to Opening Day, this series will return to these three buckets repeatedly — not to judge streaks or early standings, but to diagnose how the 2026 roster absorbs stress across a full season.

In April, the standings often just reflect which way the coin flipped.
The truth of a baseball season takes much longer to show its face.

SAVAGE VIEWS – Projected vs Actual 2025

 


  

At the start of every year, I do a projection as to how well individual players will fare during the upcoming season. I fully expected the 2025 team to field a dynamic hitting group of position players that would break previous records, especially with the addition of Juan Soto. Truth be told, the team, as a whole, underperformed my projections.  Let’s take a look.

 

PROJECTED 2025

ACTUAL 2025

PLAYER

 BA

HRS

RBI

PLAYER

 BA

HRS

RBI

Francisco

Lindor

     0.280

34

108

Francisco

Lindor

  0.267

31

86

Mark

Vientos

     0.265

38

96

Mark

Vientos

  0.233

17

61

Juan

Soto

     0.292

42

120

Juan

Soto

  0.263

43

105

Pete

Alonso

     0.262

45

126

Pete

Alonso

  0.272

38

126

Brandon

Nimmo

     0.285

23

72

Brandon

Nimmo

  0.262

25

92

Francisco

Alvarez

     0.256

35

85

Francisco

Alvarez

  0.256

11

32

Jeff

McNeil

     0.312

18

72

Jeff

McNeil

  0.243

13

54

Winkler

Marte

     0.240

15

60

Winkler

Marte

  0.254

10

54

Taylor

Seri

     0.230

21

62

Taylor

Seri

  0.207

9

35

Torres

Acuna

     0.250

8

48

Torres

Acuna

  0.229

5

37

Brett

Baty

  0.254

18

50

Others

4

14

TOTALS

279

849

224

746

 

What’s funny is that although I forecast the Mets as having a strong offensive year, I did not feel confident that they were playoff bound. I had too many concerns about the pitching staff. In the end that turned out to be the case. However, the lack of consistent offensive production was a major factor in us missing the playoffs.

 Looking back, I was especially disappointed in the regression of the “baby Mets”. None of Baty, Alvarez or Vientos took the next step forward, If the Mets are to be successful in 2026, at least two of these three need to make a major contribution. Only Soto, Alonso and Nimmo met or exceeded projections last year.

My next post in two weeks will be a projection of how well I expect our hitters to do this upcoming season.

Ray

February 7, 2026