Tom Brennan: Mets Minors Pitching Update; The A.J.’s; Scott Not (Yet)

 

REMEMBER JONAH TONG IN LAST SEPTEMBER’S GREAT METS START?

IT WON’T BE HIS LAST GREAT METS START

TOP 30 PROSPECT PITCHERS UPDATE

The Mets’ official Top 30 prospects list has 17 hitters and 13 pitchers. 

I addressed most of the hitters a few days ago.  

Today, it is the 13 prospect pitchers’ turn to go under the Brennan Scope:

(Based on stats through Friday):

AAA

Jonah Tong (Terrific)

One rough outing so far, and one rough 5th inning in another. But he has fanned 32 in 20.2 innings. 

Last 2 outings, 10 innings, 19 Ks. Beast. Terrific.

Jack Wenninger - Jack thought he was Christian Scott in his last outing: a short (2.1 IP), low hit (1), high walk (5) game, but Jack fanned 4, and so far has a 2.16 ERA. A good one.

Ryan Lambert - 1-0, 3.86 in 8 outings. Two were wild, the other 6 were great. 11 Ks in 7 IP.

Dylan Ross - 3 rehab innings so far in A ball. 0.00 ERA, 2 Ks. Good to see.

Jonathan Pintaro - 1-0, 2.51 in 7 relief outings with a 1.05 WHIP. And a 1.46 ERA after his first relief outing in sub-zero March conditions.

AA

Jon Santucci - Santucci started slowly in 2025 in High A. He has started a little unevenly this year

Will Watson - 0-3, 4.96 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in the early going.

Zach Thornton - 3 outings, 0-1, 2.76 ERA. His team is not hitting.

Brendan Girton - very wild in his first 3 starts. But threw a strong 5 innings of 1 run ball on Friday night.

R.J. Gordon - 11-3 last year, zero innings so far this year. (He actually had a short, rough rehab outing Saturday night for St Lucie.)

FULL A

Cam Tilly - 1-0, 5.85 in 15 innings, with 19 Ks, for the 21 year old 7th rounder, in his pro debut.  I think he will do well.

PETER KUSSOW & NATHAN HALL?

Their FCL season starts in early May. Their next pro inning will be their first. Both therefore have a 0.00 ERA.

One AA reliever off to a great start is 29(!) year old Brian Metoyer. 5 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 8 Ks, 0.00. An oldie but goodie. Maybe he ascends to Queens this year?

SUMMARY CONCLUSION: The system has been somewhat depleted from the depth of pitching it had a year ago, but is nonetheless still solid.

FRIDAY MINORS ACTION

Two rainouts and 2 losses. Syracuse got smoked 9-2, with bad bullpen work. St Lucie lost 8-7, with bad bullpen work. Jose Chirinos pitched well, again, for St Lucie (2,45 ERA). Lavender pitched well for Lucie in his ongoing rehab.

Elian Peña (.338) had 2 hits and a walk, and feels more and more like a RISING STAR!

WHAT WOULD BE COOL…

It won’t happen, but it would be cool (at least to me) if the Mets called up both A.J. Minter and A.J. Ewing on the same day.  

Minter should be called up within the next several days. 

Ewing IMO deserves the same timeframe, but it will be longer for the AA hitting star to arrive. Hitters are simply less fungible than pitchers.

CHRISTIAN SCOTT

After his most recent no-decision, he has been in 10 career major league games spanning 49 innings.  Considering all the chatter, and all the “top prospect coverage” he has gotten on the Macks Mets website, he has exactly 0 major league wins. Zero.  No place to go but up.

Of course, pointing that “zero” out is not to denigrate him. 

If he was pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he’d probably have five career wins already. 

Just ask Jake D how difficult it is to win games as a Mets starter. 

Or ask Freddy P. Or Matt Harvey. Or Anthony Young.

Anthony Y. was 3-30 over a 2 year period. In true Mets fashion, he had an ERA below 4.00 spanning those 2 years. But heck, at least he won some games. Young was 10-13 with his 2 other clubs. 

Paul Sewald? 1-14 with the Mets. His next team, Seattle? 18-8.

So, Christian, take it all with a grain of salt.

RVH - April 24, 2026 — Game Recap (Analytics Mode) Rockies 4, Mets 3 — When Structure Isn’t Enough

 

The Mets didn’t get beat tonight by a better team.

They got beat by a more efficient one.

Against the Colorado Rockies, the Mets actually won parts of this game — more hits, strong strikeout pitching, controlled innings. And still lost 4–3.

That’s not bad luck.

That’s a conversion gap.

Game Frame: Lost in the Middle

Final: Mets 3, Rockies 4
Run Differential: -1
Game Type: Competitive Middle (2–4 run band)

This is the exact category of game that exposes a team’s true quality.

And tonight, the gap wasn’t talent.

It was a lack of execution.

Pitching: Strikeouts Without Shutdown

At first glance, the pitching line looks strong:

• 15 strikeouts

• 10 hits allowed

• 4 runs

But dig one layer deeper:

Freddy Peralta

• 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Sean Manaea

• 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

This is the paradox:

High strikeouts + limited walks, yet still 4 runs allowed

What that tells you:

• When the Rockies did make contact, it mattered

• Hits were clustered, not scattered

• The Mets failed to kill innings early

This is a classic inefficient suppression game:

• Dominance in moments

• Leakage in key sequences

Offense: Volume Without Leverage

Now the real story.

The Mets:

• 11 hits

• 3 runs

• 3-for-8 with RISP

• 3 double plays

• 5 LOB

This is not a lack of opportunity.

This is misuse of opportunity.

Key indicators:

• Double plays (3) → rally killers

• No walks (0) → no pressure creation beyond hits

• Low LOB (5) → innings ended quickly after traffic

And the biggest tell: The Mets had traffic — but not sustained innings

They didn’t stack at-bats. They reset too often.

Baty as Microcosm

Brett Baty:

• 2 hits

• 2 RBI

• Only extra-base hit (double)

He drove the offense.

That’s both:

• A positive (production exists)

• A problem (too concentrated)

The lineup didn’t function as a system — it relied on isolated contribution.

Game Flow: Where It Flipped

Look at the scoring:

• Rockies score in 5th, 6th, 7th

• Mets score 1 early, 2 late

That middle sequence (5–7) is the game.

That’s where:

• Pitching allowed clustering

• Offense failed to respond in real time

• Momentum shifted and held

The Mets were reactive, not responsive.

System Read: Same Inputs, Opposite Outcome

Compare this to the prior two games:

Input	Output
Strong pitching	Mixed results
Adequate hitting	Inconsistent runs
Clean defense	Stable

The Mets are generating similar inputs, but:

Outputs are unstable

That’s a sequencing problem.

Core Issue: Conversion, Not Creation

This is now a pattern:

• Hits are there

• Strikeouts are there

• Errors are minimal

But:

• Runs don’t scale with hits

• Opponent runs come in clusters

• Key moments are lost

That’s not randomness anymore.

That’s a system inefficiency.

Takeaway

This was not a frustrating loss.

It was a diagnostic one.

The Mets don’t have a talent problem in this game.

They have a timing problem:

• When to get the hit

• When to avoid the double play

• When to shut down the inning

Until that aligns, you get games like this:

Out-hit the opponent
Match them in strikeouts
Lose anyway

That’s the difference between playing baseball…and winning it.

SAVAGE VIEWS – HERE I GO AGAIN

HERE I GO AGAIN!

The first thing I do every morning is read the New York Times and New York Post during breakfast before checking out the postings on Mack’s Mets. Recently, the Post’s Jon Heyman has absolved Carlos Mendoza of the team’s lack of success during the early going. Certainly, Mendoza can only play with the cards he was dealt with and it’s not his fault if the players are not living up to hype. 

Got to tell you that if I was playing poker with Jules C. and we were dealt the same hand, the professor would beat me every time. Now why is that? My guess is that he is a far better strategist than I.

It’s great that we have put the 12-game losing streak behind us. But I have to say that Thursday’s game has to be one of the worst managed games in a while. Leading by four runs going into the eighth inning, Mendoza decided to remove Peterson, despite an effective 3 plus innings. Actually, going back a little further, why was Meyers not allowed to pitch another inning. The combination of Meyers and Peterson should have been all the pitching needed to close the game. 

Instead, Mendoza decided to do what he had done too often in the past. Bringing in Kimball made no sense and Brazoban did what he has done several times this year – allowed inherited runners to score. And let’s not forget the comedy routine in the ninth where confusion reigned.  Seems you can have only one pitcher on the mound at a time. Williams simply had to bide his time. On top of that he came close to blowing another save.

Regardless, it was good to see the “baby Mets” make some solid contributions. Perhaps with warmer weather, these young players will start performing to expectations. It really has been a brutal April and I’m sure that the poor weather has had a detrimental impact on their statistics.

This team has enough talent and depth to turn things around. For starters, the trio of Peralta, McLean and Holmes should keep us competitive in most games. Losing Lindor hurts, but perhaps Maurcio can step up. He just missed a homer in his first at bat. 

At some point the experiment of playing Vientos at first must stop. His fielding ability at first mirrors his fielding ability at third. He should be the regular DH until Polanco returns. Baty, if given the chance would be above average there. I fully expect Senga to turn things around and Scott should be recalled to make his next start.

In order to make the playoffs, the Mets will need to win close to 80 of their remaining games. Sweeping Colorado this weekend would be a good start. Of course, the Rockies beat the Dodgers two out of three last weekend.

I find it hard to understand why AJ Ewing is still in AA. He needs to be fast tracked so that he can play a vital role the second half of the season.

Ray

April 25, 2026

Reese Kaplan -- A Big Win (Finally) and a Look at Pitching

Forgive me from being a little late to the party, but how about the way you felt when the Mets finally got a big W in the standings column after a dozen straight L’s?  When Luke Weaver put on a baserunner with the Mets holding a single run lead due to a timely hit by none other than heretofore dismissed Mark Vientos, I ventured to fellow Mets fan friends in real time that I could foresee a two run homer happening slugged by Byron Buxton.  I’ve never been so happy to be so wrong about anything in my entire life.

That being said, we’ve already discussed many of the offensive issues facing the team.  Consistent with my prediction prior to the game Juan Soto was inserted as the DH.  While no none will moan about missing his suspect defense in left field, the issue was leaving the rest of the outfield open to a less than stellar cast.  In this victory the Mets started newcomer Luis Robert, no-offense substitute Tyrone Taylor and over-the-hill and ill-prepared late starter Tommy Pham.  That’s not exactly a trio vying for All Star consideration.

Futhermore, the injury bug struck once again with suddenly now hitting Francisco Lindor coming out due to discomfort in his calf.  That change necessitated Bo Bichette and his highly suspect glove moving to cover at shortstop and no-offense-provided Brett Baty taking over at third base.  We don’t yet know how severe the injury is but they have scheduled an MRI for Lindor and announced the call up of Ronny Mauricio to take his place temporarily while he recovers.  

Today, however, it’s time to ponder a bit about the on-again/off-again nature of the pitching performances the club has received.  The easy part are the starters.  Right now while Freddy Peralta has been better than others though not quite what he was in Milwaukee last year, he’s still on the positive side of the ledger.  Nolan McLean is in a way the new Jacob deGrom who pitches his heart out but can’t get the club to score a few runs for him to earn a victory.  The other solid arm is Clay Holmes.

After that it gets pretty messy.  It’s been announced that in yesterday’s game Christian Scott was being called up from AAA where he’s demonstrated the velocity and composure that made him a top pitching gem before his Tommy John Surgery departure.  All are hoping he can be more than a simple one game fill-in.

Leaving the rotation and joining previously banished Sean Manaea in the bullpen is the forever frustrating David Peterson who more often resembles a batting practice pitcher than a dependable starter.  At this point no one is clear what exactly his role is out there.  It could be to eat innings when a starter turns up incapable of the number of expected frames or it could be as as much of a LOOGY as is still allowed by the new minimum number of batters faced rule. 

In addition to this underperforming duo you have the ever questionable outcome expected from import Kodai Senga.  We have seen how dominant he can be when he is healthy and moving the ball around the zone to confound hitters.  We have also unfortunately seen how bad he can be when things are not working.  Being on the books until the end of 2027 the leash on him is likely a bit longer than it would be on someone like Peterson who is in his free agent walk year.  Still, you can’t hand over a pitcher allowing well in excess of seven runs per game when you’re club is struggling to provide even two (1.7 runs per game average during the losing streak).

Behind this group you have the sometimes starter from Milwaukee Tobias Myers who did serve as what we now call an opener earlier in the week.  He’s been far better than most out there though hardly stellar.  He’s more likely long term going to be slated as a long man in the pen and spot starter at best.

Then in the minors you still have Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger.  Neither have done enough long term and solid work yet in AAA to consider them confidently as anything but emergency replacements should injuries occur, but in Tong’s case the strikeout capabilities are most definitely there. 

For Wenninger who is not quite as well known to the Queens faithful, he has spent his minor league career improving each of the past season and thus far in this one.  He finished 2025 in Binghamton with a 2.92 ERA, a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, a WHIP of 1.150 and a record of 12-6 over 26 starts.  This year in Syracuse he’s starting off with three starts earning a 1-1 record with a 1.26 ERA and the same gaudy strikeout to walk ratio.  With so little AAA exposure he’s doing consistently better than Tong who has already had a cup of coffee in the majors, but with time he could surpass him on the depth chart. 

In the bullpen there’s the Devin Williams situation.  Which Williams will the Mets get?  Is he the Yankees version from 2025 or the Brewers version from the rest of his career?  Lately he’s looked more like a Bronx Bomb than a Milwaukee Marauder.   

The rest of the pen is fungible.  While everyone is waiting for AJ Minter to join the mix, you have the up and down record of the streak ending winner, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Austin Warren, Huascar Brazoban and Craig Kimbrel.  Let’s not forget David Peterson and Sean Manaea as well.  Who’s to know if Kodai Senga will be joining them? 

If you want to start an interesting debate, who will the Mets send out the door to make room for AJ Minter?  While no one would necessarily cry if Austin Warren was sent packing, there is no long term affection here for Brazoban nor Kimbrel either.  More would advocate finding out ways to part with one of the trio of Peterson, Manaea and Senga.  Perhaps one of those online gambling sites should set it up as a wager.  Submit your betting slip with the name of who will become an ex-Met when the club is ready to send the Uber from Queens to Syracuse to welcome rookie Wenninger.