Paul Articulates – When a good stretch could be a bad thing

What a relief it is to see the Mets on an actual winning streak.  They swept the Marlins, gaining some level of revenge for being swept in Miami.  They avoided a sweep by the Reds by winning the final game of the series.  That’s four in a row to close out a homestand that has Queens breathing a sigh of relief.

From here, it is back out to the west coast for series against the Mariners (31-29 AL West) and the Padres (32-26 NL West).  It has been very difficult for the team to keep changing time zones, having been alternating between west and east three times already.  With two good teams facing them and little rest to be had, this could be a difficult challenge that derails the winning momentum that has recently been gained.

But losing a series or two may not be the worst thing that could happen to this team.  I think (and many of you will disagree) that the worst thing that could happen to this team is a winning streak.  Why?  Well by this point in the season with the Mets 7 games underwater and a team OPS of .654, it is a logical next step to start re-working the team for success in the future, not compromising strategy to eke out more wins and keep the fans happy.  That process would right the ship and eliminate some of the recent very costly mistakes like Polanco, Bichette, and Peralta.  It would also force a final reckoning for those players that have had too many chances like Baty, Vientos, and Alvarez.

What could go wrong is a winning streak that pulls the team back up to .500 and suddenly renews hope that this is not a lost season.  Instead of correcting the huge miscalculations in the rebuild of 2026, it would drive some desperate deadline behavior that could cost more prospects and more money for short-term rentals that might get the team to challenge for the last wild card spot.  Then we would lose not only the first playoff series but would also lose the rentals and the prospects we paid for them and be back to square one for spring training 2027.

The best thing that could happen, though very painful for the fans, would be for the team to play mediocre baseball for the months of June and July, head into the trade deadline 8-10 games below .500, and do the right things for the future.  Let the kids play and prove themselves, get what you can get for the baby Mets that never grew up to be man Mets, and trade away the mid-30’s players that were acquired in the winter for whatever prospect collateral we can obtain.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the collapse of the development system from the low minors to MLB will cause a great deal of introspection, hopefully concluding with lessons learned and actionable results that will salvage the talent we still have in the system.

Yes, this is another year lost in the quest for the World Championship.  Yes, this will mean less fans in seats in 2026 and less merchandising.  Yes, this will mean a financial loss for the ownership this year.  But if it becomes the means for a real, no-compromises strategic recalibration, it will be the beginning of a long, bright future.

Reese Kaplan -- So Maybe Mets Changes are A'Coming After All

I’ve been more than transparent about my disdain for the Mets President of Baseball Operations sitting back and doing pretty much nothing but waiting while the wheels have fallen off and the gas gauge is well past the warning line and smack in the middle of Empty. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I can’t blame Stearns for the multitude of injuries that have impacted the club’s dismal won/loss records.  He did not hit the ball that fractured Clay Holmes’ fibula.  He did not cause Francisco Lindor’s calf strain.  He did not break Ronny Mauricio’s thumb.  He did not force Juan Soto onto the IL for recovery time.  He is not responsible for Tyrone Taylor’s issue.  He did not do anything to Kodai Senga’s long term health.  These things are all simply part of the game as it is played.

Where you can get a little bit less understanding is in player selection.  Two of the 2026 newcomers had a long history of injury problems which made their acquisitions a bit overly optimistic because what if that trend continued once they put on Mets uniforms?  Sure enough, both Luis Robert and Jorge Polanco have missed more time than they have played yet they are tying up combined about $43 million dollars of Steve Cohen’s payroll budget to be on the bench as a result of their maladies.  Those choices are somewhat indicative of a less than stellar selection of player personnel.

Going forward, however, could there actually be a plan being put into place to relieve payroll pressure and set up the 2027 team for the success that’s eluded the 2026 squad.  This week combined reliever/starter Tobias Myers was somewhat surprisingly sent down to Syracuse after lately not having done his best work but he surely had not sunk to a Peterson level of ineptitude. 

Word soon filtered out that there could be a sliver lining to this seeming dark cloud over Myers’ career.  It is said that he’s going to take some time there to stretch himself out from a primarily relief pitcher role into being one capable of handling 5+ innings as a starting pitcher.  That decision if true suggests that perhaps the forward thinking gene has not completely gone comatose in Stearns’ head.  Making Myers available to start opens up the July trade market for starting pitchers currently on the Mets or soon to return from injury.

While the normal reaction to a Mets prospective trade transaction would be genuinely misguided with some version of dumping David Peterson who is an upcoming free agent for another team’s bag of balls.  However, he’s not the only one who has worn out his welcome here.

There is projected ace Freddy Peralta who is in the same boat for whom the Mets paid a price to acquire for his walk year.  His recent starts have not been quite the level he’d delivered in the past but his recent success and more importantly his health have made him a desirable rental for another team to spend player personnel to swap.

Sean Manaea is the toughest nut to crack and the swap of Peterson with him in the starting rotation is likely being done in the hopes that the poorly performing and high priced righty can string together June and July starts that are markedly better than what he’s shown in 2026.  If he uses these nine starts to demonstrate that there is both health and quality there, then it’s possible though less likely the Mets would find another team willing to take on Manaea not just for the balance of 2026 but also for the 2027 season.  Even if he managed to lower his ERA below 4.00 it’s going to be a bit of a tough sell given the remaining payroll commitment for the next 18 months.

Finally, there is everyone’s favorite target, Kodai Senga.  He’s doing rehab games right now and certainly has a much higher level track record in his American career than any of the others.  Health has been a bigger issue for him but his $15 million annual salary makes him a moderate cost for a guy with a career ERA 3.39.  The Mets are obligated to pay him for the remainder of this year as well as 2027 with an option for 2028 at the same rate.  If healthy he would be right up there with Peralta for the starting pitchers near easiest to move. 

In the absence of one or more of these pitchers the Mets are left with Christian Scott, Nolan McLean, maybe Jonah Tong, now Tobias Myers and whomever is left on the starting roster once trades are consummated.  Clay Holmes would be back at some time and some IL losses to Tommy John Surgery are also available next year if wanted.  They need some help.  

MACK - Strike News

On Thursday, the filthy rich baseball owners delivered their initial salvo going into the negotiations regarding the possibility of a strike at the end of this season. It outlined a hard salary cap of a ceiling of $245.3mil (nice round number) and a floor of $171.2mil.

The length of the owner's offer is seven years.

The player’s union has already responded saying the only thing the greedy owners want is more money in their pockets. There is a better chance of President Trump accepting a deal from Iran that keeps their nuclear material in place than the players accepting a salary cap.

As for the Mets, what would they look like with a payroll of around $100mil less? Could be a quick solution to all the mistakes made in the off-season. 

This isn't a lengthy post. It's just a reminder that this issue is in play and there is a good chance that the only baseball you will be able to watch next year is the Savannah Bananas.

Look at the bright side... the team will come out of this with only Calvin Zeigler on the IL.

In my opinion, the owners care about their profit margin much more than the players on their payroll. How much profit, you say? Well, a sizable amount of these teams have increased their value ONE BILLION DOLLARS +;more since the current agreement was signed.

That's one billion with a B.

And yet, a salary cap like this one would only increase that profit. 

Please don't ever call this a game anymore.

Tom Brennan - Brooklyn Batter Blues; Is the Bryce MDO Rambling Road Show Ending? And Discrimination by Nats vs. Trevor Williams

 

“Don’t extremely windy conditions negatively impact hitters?”

“Nah….how could they?” 

Had you ever gone out as a kid or a teenager and hit baseballs into a stiff wind? 

I still remember that - remember it being no fun at all. 

Hitting the ball with the wind at your back? That was terrific.

Bud Harrelson turns into the Bambino.

But if you blasted a high fly into the wind on a particularly windy day, the wind would just stop it. Why? Because it is called wind RESISTANCE.

That’s what hitters in Brooklyn constantly experience, especially, I imagine, early in the season, when there is dead air and blustery, sometimes near gale force, conditions.

In 1981, when I trained for the marathon, I Live near Tanners Park in Amityville. I would run down there and the wind coming in was fierce in the winter. After doing it a handful of times, I stopped and picked the other roots. 

I also got to do singing gigs at the Jones Beach bandshells on field three and field four on four different occasions. 

On one occasion, it was so windy that the guy with the sound system had to use sandbags to hold the speaker stanchions down. Another time, the wind was really strong, but not like that. Then one other time it was a normal breeze and one time it was dead air. You never know what you’re gonna get down by the water. The differences can be extreme.

I put all that together and I come to one conclusion: that Park with his current dimensions has to really suck for the hitters. And the statistics over the years support that conclusion. Mets former slugger Ike Davis hit plenty of home runs with the Mets for a few brief years, including 32 in 2012.

But when he played in Brooklyn, as a left-handed hitter, he had exactly 0 home runs, in roughly 125 Brooklyn plate appearances.

He played for Team Israel in a WBC qualifying round game back in Cyclones Park in September 2016, towards the tail end of his career. An MLB article included this stunning statement:

"I can still barely hit it out," said Davis, standing on the field at MCU Stadium, home of the Mets' Class A affiliate Brooklyn Cyclones, and eying the right-field wall.

"Can you feel that wind?"

Yes, I can feel it, Ike. Great for flying kites, not for playing pro baseball.

In a publication known as the Brooklyn paper, I also saw the following quote from a 2025 article:

“It’s super hard to hit in this field,” said catcher Ronald Hernandez, who is a switch-hitter. “But we don’t think about it because we make a lot of preparation during the practice, and we try to bring our best effort every time. It’s hard when you hit the ball in the air and the winds kind of treat you.”

And…

“You’re not going up there looking for home runs,” said Carson Benge. You’re going up there looking for low-line drives, something you can hit hard. So I feel like that in my approach has stayed the exact same. If I get something up a little bit and it gets caught at 105, I’m completely okay with that.”

Lastly…

(Manager Gil Gomez said) “It is a pitchers’ ballpark. There’s no secret about it. But I feel like the more that we can put that out of their minds and just focus on hitting the ball hard regardless of the outcome, I think we should be in a good spot.”

A Baseball America article in January 2025 said this:

 “High-A Brooklyn (Mets) and High-A Tri-City (Angels) have reputations as brutal hitters' parks, and…rugged conditions for lefthanded batters”.

WHICH LEADS ME TO A SIMPLE QUESTION: 

Since ownership can modify field dimensions simply by moving fences closer, to make the field footprint smaller, why the heck isn’t that done? 

Does the organization want to torment its prospects? Does the organization want to make it a daily dose of miserable for its prospects? Does the organization want to take its prospects away from their normal style of hitting, assuming that their initial style of hitting involves some normal ball lift that translates into home runs in normal parks?

If I were the owner, I would want to protect my prospects and see them not have to fight through adversity. I would move the fences in. A lot.

But, sadly, I am not the owner, and really have no say in the matter. It just pains me to see hitters struggle in a nasty hitting Park. There are parks right in that league that are very friendly hitters Parks and I’m sure they’d much rather be playing there.

OK. I know I’ve written about the fences before. I’m going to stop here. Have a good day.

P.S. Playing on the water is weird. I went to Smith’s Point Beach in Suffolk County with the missus this Thursday.  The wind was extremely strong, all right - fierce - but from the north, not from the ocean. For baseball, it is just weird playing in high wind conditions.

IS BRYCE MONTES DE OCA REACHING THE END OF THE ROAD?

Everyone has that one freakishly talented guy that you hoped would somehow straighten out their performance flaws and become a star. Darryl Dawkins in the NBA was one such guy. The backboard buster turned into a pretty good NBA center, but was incessantly in foul trouble.

Of all the Mets prospect guys I’ve followed as a writer on this site over the last decade, big Bryce was my guy. 

A very wild guy who could throw 103 miles an hour, and I still remember that one pitch that he threw that look like a sick Mason Miller slider, except it instead broke like a screw ball in the other direction. A total freak pitch. It literally looked like it broke about 2 feet. Maybe that’s why he’s had repeated arm problems. Too much torque, no finesse.

Now in another organization, he pitched against Brooklyn Friday night in relief. I noted in the box score that the Brooklyn scored 10 runs on just six hits. Which is unusual. So then I looked at the box score. Bryce pitched.

He retired a batter (by strikeout) and allowed no hits…but hit two batters and walked 4 more, allowing 6 runs.

Bryce is now 30, and was drafted in 2018 but did not pitch as a pro until 2021. Injured seriously and often, he has only thrown 106 pro innings, fanning 156 batters, walking 94, and hitting 18 dudes that likely were quaking in their boots and had gotten their wills notarized before facing him.

He could fool everyone and pull it all together, finally, at age 30. But this feels like an experiment that will never be anything but a failed experiment. However, until Bryce says it’s over, it’s not over.

Washington Nats Exec Sean Hudson Fired for Discrimination Vs. Former Mets Player

SAW THIS ON TWITTER:

Director of Community Relations Admits on Hidden Camera to Active Religious Discrimination Against Starting Pitcher Trevor Williams, Surveillance of Nationals Fans’ Google History, and Segregated LGBTQ+ Corporate Meetings to an O’Keefe Undercover Journalist “One of our pitchers, Trevor Williams. He’s super Christian-Catholic, all these tattoos that mean a lot.” “The Dodgers had a group… who were drag queens who sometimes dressed up as nuns. 

“He [Trevor Williams] went on social media like… ‘This is my religion. You all are mocking it.’” “Because of that, we [Washington Nationals] don’t use him [Trevor Williams] on social [media].” “Like, when they're like, is a hot dog a sandwich? And like, the players come up, you know what I mean? Like, we [Nationals] don't ask him [Trevor Williams].” “If you ever come to a Nats game, there is someone on our team who is responsible for figuring out everything about you and assigning you into a bucket of people. If you’re accepting cookies, we’re getting a plethora of your Google history.”

- We live in strange times.

Tom Brennan - Embarrassing Mets OFF-base Percentages; And Awful Mets Subs’ Hitting

 

ARE METS HITTERS EMBARRASSED WITH THEIR SUNKEN OBP’S?

So, the Mets moved on from 3 key hitters from the prior half decade this past winter - Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil.

Their career on base percentages as Mets?

Nimmo: .364

McNeil: .351

Alonso: .341

Collectively excellent.

This year, through Wednesday, Juan Soto (.392 OBP) has been scorching since the frigid early season warmed up, and after his recovery from injury. 

Stop nitpicking and criticizing him - he is great.

Other Mets’ OBPs this season? 

Miserable. They would be OK if they were batting averages and not OBPs.

Tyrone Taylor .210

Ronny Mauricio .219

Jorge Polanco .246

Mark Vientos .261

Marcus Semien .264

Luis Torrens .266

Bo Bichette .273

Brett Baty .306

Look at those putrid OBPs, and then realize that the lowest team OBP last year was .293. 

The Mets team OBP this year, through Wednesday? .292.

Well, they do lead the majors in OFF BASE PERCENTAGE.

And…

The new kids are embarrassing the others not named Soto:

Carson Benge .310

Andrew “AJ” Ewing .350

SOMETIMES, I JUST CANNOT GET OVER HOW…

…poorly Mets call ups and part timers hit, each and every year.

This year, 4 called-up hitters - Ibanez, Morabito, Senger, and Pham - combined to go a sickly 1 for 40 through Thursday, with 20 Ks. 

 - Nick Morabito went 0-11, with 9 Ks! 

Last year’s Flopping Foursome - Senger, Young, Mullins, and Siri - in 268 at bats produced just 45 hits (.167).

In 2024, Omar Narvaez and DJ Stewart combined to go 38 for 223 (.170). 

In 2023, Almonte, Nido, Arauz, and Mendick combined for 28 for 195 (.143).

In the 101 win of 2022, you remember, the season the Mets lost the division in a tiebreaker, an incredible 14 hitters hit under .200, going a combined 123 for 690 (.178). 

 - Would they have won 110 games if those guys hit .228?

In 2021, it was Cameron Maybin going 1 for 28, while Khalil Lee and Albert Almora chipped in a combined 7 for 70. That’s a combined 8 for 98 (.081).

Question:

Is the pressure of hitting on the Mets unlike that of any other team?

METS WIN THIRD STRAIGHT, INCLUDING SCOTT’S 1ST MLB WIN

6-1 win - final. Christian Scott dazzled for 5 innings, fanning 8 to secure the win. Very promising about Scott.

Minor league Mets teams also all won, except for a close loss by Syracuse punctuated by a bad Jack Wenninger outing. A nice day.

MORE A&Q

ANSWER: 73-38

QUESTION: What is Zach Wheeler’s record after leaving the Mets?

Hey, I don’t know about you, but I am sure glad that Wheeler went to one of our key rival teams. 

How about you?

RVH - Rethinking the Mets, Part 2: The Slow-Start Problem Is Killing Seasons

In Part 1 of this series, we argued that the Mets do not have an ambition problem. They have an execution problem.

The first six years of the Steve Cohen era have been defined by aggressive investment, organizational modernization, and a clear objective: build a championship organization capable of competing with baseball's elite year after year.

The goal has never been simply to reach the playoffs.

The goal has been to join the Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers as one of baseball's enduring standard-bearers.

But if Part 1 was about understanding the gap between ambition and results, Part 2 begins examining one of the most persistent patterns preventing the Mets from closing that gap.

The slow-start problem.

At first glance, this might seem like an overreaction.

Every team starts slowly sometimes.

Every team experiences injuries, slumps, and bad stretches.

Baseball seasons are long.

The standings on May 1 rarely determine where teams finish in October.

All true.

But the Mets' slow-start problem is not primarily a standings problem.

It's a pressure problem.

More specifically, it's a pressure-amplification problem.

Because one of the defining characteristics of the Cohen era is how quickly an ordinary baseball challenge can become an organizational stress test.

The cycle has become familiar:

The season opens with expectations.

A few injuries appear.

The offense struggles.

The bullpen blows a few games.

The standings tighten.

Questions emerge.

The media intensifies.

Fans become restless.

Players start pressing.

The noise grows.

And suddenly a difficult two-week stretch becomes the dominant storyline of the season.

The best organizations don't eliminate adversity.

They eliminate amplification.

That's the difference.

The Dodgers suffer injuries every year.

The Braves lose important players every year.

The Yankees face pressure every year.

Yet those organizations rarely allow a difficult April to become an organizational crisis.

The Mets still do.

And that's where this discussion becomes uncomfortable.

Because by now, some of these patterns have repeated too often to dismiss as bad luck.

Every season seems to become emotionally heavy almost immediately.

That matters because baseball is not played in a vacuum.

Pressure changes behavior.

Players press.

Managers manage differently.

Front offices feel pressure to act.

Media narratives harden.

Fans become less patient.

The game itself begins to speed up.

And once that happens, mistakes multiply.

The irony is that the actual baseball problem often remains manageable.

The emotional consequences become far more damaging than the standings consequences.

That distinction is critical.

A team can recover from being three or four games under .500 in April.

Recovering from months of accumulated pressure is much harder.

Part of the challenge may be roster construction.

Older rosters often start slower.

Power-dependent offenses can be vulnerable to cold-weather baseball.

Athletic teams tend to absorb early-season variance better.

Part of the challenge may be organizational depth.

The best teams don't avoid injuries.

They replace production.

When stars disappear, capable alternatives emerge.

The season continues moving forward.

Part of the challenge may be environmental.

April baseball at Citi Field is different from April baseball in Atlanta or Los Angeles.

Weather matters.

Ballpark conditions matter.

Offensive environments matter.

And over time, those factors can influence both performance and perception.

But there may be another factor that receives less attention.

History.

When the Yankees start slowly, fans become frustrated.

When the Mets start slowly, many fans become concerned.

Those are not the same thing.

The Yankees spent generations building institutional credibility.

The Braves spent decades building trust through consistency.

The Dodgers rebuilt theirs through sustained excellence.

Those organizations have accumulated something the Mets are still chasing:

The benefit of the doubt.

The Mets have not earned that yet.

And that's why every slow start feels heavier.

The reaction is not simply about the current season.

It is about forty years of accumulated frustration.

Every stumble reopens old questions.

Every losing streak revives old fears.

Every disappointing stretch creates renewed uncertainty about whether the organization is truly moving closer to its ultimate goal.

That is the trust gap.

And right now, it may be one of the biggest challenges facing the franchise.

Because the Mets are trying to become a championship organization.

But when slow starts repeatedly create pressure spirals, the conversation quickly shifts back toward more immediate concerns.

Instead of discussing how to become the Dodgers, Braves, or Yankees, the Mets find themselves trying to prove they can simply stabilize the current season.

That is not where a championship organization wants to live.

The encouraging news is that many of the necessary investments have already been made.

The Mets have committed resources to player development.

They have expanded analytics.

They have upgraded performance infrastructure.

They have modernized baseball operations.

They have invested heavily throughout the organization.

The challenge now is converting those investments into greater stability.

Because ultimately, the organizations the Mets are chasing are not defined by how often they face adversity.

They are defined by how well they absorb it.

The Mets still allow adversity to compound.

Until that changes, every season will continue to feel harder than it needs to be.

---

Part 2 Thesis

The Mets' slow-start problem is not primarily a standings problem.

It is a pressure-amplification problem.

The best organizations absorb adversity without allowing it to spread.

The Mets too often absorb stress.

Until that changes, every season risks becoming more difficult than it needs to be.

---

What We've Learned So Far

Part 1: The Mets do not have an ambition problem. They have an execution problem.

Part 2: The Mets' slow-start problem is not a standings problem. It is a pressure-amplification problem.

---

Next: Part 3 – The Yankees Didn't Eliminate Pressure. They Learned How to Carry It

If pressure is one of the Mets' biggest obstacles, the obvious next question is how the Yankees have managed to thrive under it for generations. The answer has far less to do with payroll than most Mets fans realize.

SAVAGE VIEWS – ON MY MIND

HERE I GO AGAIN!

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL CBA PROPOSAL

The news is that Major League Baseball has extended an initial proposal to the Players Association to include a salary cap with maximums and minimums with revenue sharing. Of course, the players union has rejected the proposal. 

It should be mentioned that baseball is the only major sport without a cap. All of the leagues with a salary cap seem to be thriving with the best players being well compensated. 

We can all agree that the LA Dodgers are a very well-run team who get the cream of the crop in the free agent market. The amount of money that the Dodgers, Mets and to a limited extent, the Yankees, have available to spend puts all of the other teams at a disadvantage,

It’s a foregone conclusion that Tarik Skubal will either sign with the Dodgers or Yankees as a free agent. No other team can afford his projected salary demands. And when Paul Skenes becomes available at best three or four teams will be in the bidding. 

It’s time to restore economic parity and to do away with the unlimited budgets that allow only a handful of teams to go after top talent. It’s also time for teams in weaker markets to be subject to a compensation floor. It would not be surprising if much of the 2027 season is cancelled while negotiations drag on.

YOUNGER AND CHEAPER

I’ve made this suggestion before – the team needs to develop and promote prospects to the major league roster. We have begun to move in that direction. Carlos Benge and AJ Ewing are solid pieces in building a strong foundation. Francisco Alvarez is tantalizing but he has shown himself to be injury prone and seems to have regressed both defensively and offensively. The clock seems to be running out on Brett Baty whose progress is going in the wrong direction. 

Mark Vientos may be a player who needs a new location. There is no longer a spot for him on the Mets. Trouble is, there are no prospects ready to make the jump to the majors. The most likely way to fill lineup gaps is probably through trades.

It appears likely that Peralta and Holmes will be trade candidates. Also, we own a group of young arms that might entice other teams to depart with major league ready position prospects. Upgrades are urgently needed at first, second and third and perhaps catcher. Perhaps, we will be successful in convincing the next round of Japanese or Korean free agents to join us.

STEARNS VS MENDOZA

Despite having one of the two top payrolls in MLB, the Mets have underperformed over the past 162 games. There’s a lot of blame to go around. The decision to bring David Stearns on board as President of Baseball operations was largely applauded. 

His track record with the Brewers was solid and he was viewed as a rising executive. His record with the Mets has been mixed. I believe the Mets have become a top-notch baseball operation ranging from improved scouting to player development and a more stable front office. 

On the other hand, the lack of hitting on the top three minor league teams is a major concern. We seem to have gone from one of the best minor league systems to one of the worst over the past 12 months. Some of the moves made by Stearns were troubling. Acquiring Frankie Montas, trading for Cedrick Mullen and Luis Robert, Jr., signing Jorge Polanco despite his injury history and the list goes on.

Many feel that Carlos Mendoza was dealt a poor hand and should not be held accountable for the shortcomings of the team. However, the team has not responded to his leadership and it would be surprising if he is retained beyond this year. I’m willing to bet that Alex Cora is next in line. After all, he checks several boxes. Track record in major market, speaks Spanish, gets along with the media, etc.

GOING ON HIATUS

It’s time for me to take a break. Writing this post has become a chore given the current state of the team. I really hate being negative most of the time.

Ray

May 30, 2026

Reese Kaplan -- Is it Time to Replicate the Sell Off of July 2023?

Back in 2023 the Mets did something no one really saw coming.  The club was going nowhere fast and the Cy Young quality duo they’d brought in towards the ends of their careers were not delivering the Mets into October baseball.  Without much buzz ahead of the July trade deadline the Mets sent Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers in what was primarily a salary dump more so than a red letter prospect acquisition.  In that deal they brought in since departed Luisangel Acuna and big payroll relief where the Rangers took on all but $22.5 million of Scherzer’s salary. 

Looking at the numbers produced by Acuna you can easily say he was nowhere near equal value for a man slated to have his plaque immortalized in Cooperstown.  Then again, if you pull up the numbers for Scherzer since departing and he’s not quite what he was during his prime time days.  He’s above .500, having gone 21-18 over this 3+ season period of activity but his 4.57 is markedly worse than what he was expected to deliver.  He’s had a hard time staying healthy which might account for the fact his ERA resembles more of Tylor Megill than Cy Young.

The other major chip heading out of town was multi Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who in late 2023 became a Houston Astro.  It was a strange deal in which the Mets paid down all but $5 million of his upcoming salary for the following years.  It netted them since departed Drew Gilbert and strikeout king Ryan Clifford.  How has Verlander done after leaving Citifield?  Well, he’s below .500 at 22-26 as a starter with an ERA of 4.03.  That last number is not awful but it’s not how he built his path to the Hall of Fame. 

This upcoming July trade deadline has a number of interesting candidates around the league for blockbuster types of deals and obviously the free agent to be, Freddy Peralta, is going to be high on that list.  The Mets have no guarantee he would be back in 2027 and if they concede the unlikely scenario that they’re destined for October baseball, then whatever they can get now for Peralta is certainly worth discovering. 

Now any interested team needs to know that while they get Peralta to help them with their post season drive for August, September and October, they also have to know that unless they push super hard for Peralta to sign an extension during these three months they could be losing him just as the Mets would if they held onto him.  Still, being healthy and pitching in a top 10 quality in the majors would suggest the Mets can get quite a return for him despite him being a short term rental.

Obviously this same issue arises in Detroit where Tarik Skubal is down and out for most of this year after requiring surgery on his elbow which has kept him off the mound.  He’s due to be a free agent at year’s end and with the Tigers sporting a record of just 22-35 which is even worse than the Mets it would appear sensible for Detroit to try to net as much as they can for him beyond a compensatory draft pick at year end as he tries to sell himself to the highest bidder.  

Since becoming a full time starter in 2024, Skubal has a 31-10 record while striking out 10.9 per 9 IP with a WHIP of 0.906 and an ERA of 2.30.  That effort is worth two straight Cy Young Awards and at age 29 right now he’s entering a very lucrative prime time period for the middle of his career.  Expect teams to pay the sun, the moon and the stars to get him, though how much he can help in 2026 is still a great unknown.  

Ernest Dove - Young New York Mets Arms Thriving

Today's topic from prospect expert Ernest Dove is the young pitchers in the New York Mets development system.  Click the link below for the full report.

Young New York Mets Arms Thriving