Tom Brennan: Two Losses on Saturday; Upstate Spring Chills; Benge Draft Bonus? Elian Stands Out in Camp

HERE’S J..J..J..J..JOHNNY!!

He was going to throw out the first ball, but…

...he was having a little trouble getting loose.

So, they got this semi-retired winter ball pitcher to throw out the 1st pitch:

Ahh, calendar-wise, spring has sprung. It is still not seasonally warm on Long Island. Anyway…

Hopefully this year, Syracuse and Binghamton will once again have A Few Good Men.

As soon as they thaw out, that is.

I recently read this bone-chilling 2026 post:

Opening Day (for the Syracuse Mets) is scheduled for Friday, March 27th on the road at the Worcester Red Sox.

- MARCH 27???

- The climate tables for Worchester, Ma. for March 27? 

Normal high temperature 43, normal low temperature 27. 

Nothing “normal” about that. Unless you are a Polar Bear.

Classic baseball weather…in Siberia, perhaps. 

Or in everyone’s new favorite get-away place, Greenland. Nothing “Green” about it.

What can one say, in Worchester, except “PLAY BALL!!!!”  

Snow Ball, that is.

(Syracuse on Saturday nite, February 9?  10 degrees below zero, and the wind chill is even lower.  Just 50 days before opening day. Uh huh.)

THE BENGE BONUS

The Mets may want Carson to be on the opening day roster, because if he wins rookie of the year, there is that wonderful draft benefit described by Joe Trezza in a 2024 article, below:

An MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.

But there are a few ways that can happen. One year of service requires 172 days on an active roster, which means …

1. Players with little or no MLB service time need to break camp with the team or be called up within two weeks of Opening Day. Then they must spend all or most of the year in the big leagues. Then they must either win their league’s Rookie of the Year award, or place in the top three for MVP or Cy Young.
2. Players who made an Opening Day roster and accrued the service time but didn’t factor in any awards that year retain PPI eligibility. They need to place in the top three for MVP or Cy Young before hitting arbitration. That typically allows for a three-year window.

Without that potential substantial bonus, Carson would most likely be starting the season in the minors. However, I think because of that potential ROY bonus, which is substantial, I believe he will start the season on the opening day roster. Or he will be called up very, very quickly if he doesn’t.

And if starts out on the opening day roster and struggles? Then he probably has diminished chances of winning rookie of the year, and can be sent down without worry that doing so would forfeit the chance at that draft choice. Anyway, having both Carson and McLean on the roster gives them two great rookie of the year chances. And two great chances of picking up that extra high draft pick.

What happens if the two are co-rookies of the year? Not sure, but I’d like to find out. And heck, through Friday, Benge has been nothing short of tremendous this spring.

ELIAN PEÑA SHINES IN SPRING CAMP

MLB’s Sam Dykstra provided a highly promising update on Pena this week:

(Excerpted)

Camp standout II: SS Elian Peña (Mets No. 9): On the backfields, Peña -- a $5 million signing in 2025 — started his career poorly in the DSL last year as a 17 year old, and hit .342/.463/.618 in 46 games the rest of the way. 

(Pena) has looked more like the latter performer in his first stateside spring. In an intrasquad game Sunday, he went 3-for-4 with two exit velocities above 100 mph, including a 103 mph shot right back up the middle past the pitcher.

Peña (in 2026) could be a player the Mets get aggressive with and assign to Single-A St. Lucie earlier this season than many of his peers.“He's had a phenomenal spring,” (Mets Director of Player Development Andy) Green said.

“He shows up to work every day, is present for his work and loves the challenge that the game presents every day. He’s hungry to move quickly and hungry to prove that our scouts saw something really special in him when they identified him at a young age in the D.R. I really applaud his general resilience as a competitor.”

We’re all hungry at Mack’s Mets too, Elian. And hopeful for a Soto-like 2026. Well, he did smoke a single, walk, and fly out to center in 3 PAs in the Prospect Breakout game.  HE IS READY!

I saw this online:

What is the meaning of the name Elian?

The name Elian is primarily a male name of Spanish origin that means Light.

We’ve seen the light…Elian is de-light-ful.

WORK HARD AND YOU WILL BE REWARDED… SUPPOSEDLY

It doesn’t always work that way in baseball. Mark Vientos, barring some surprise move in the next few days, will be on the Mets opening day roster, despite going three for 46 through Friday. 

Meanwhile, Ronny Mauricio has gone 10 for 32, and his reward is a ticket to frigid Syracuse.

If baseball were purely a meritocracy, several people, including Mauricio would be headed north, and several people who are headed to Queens, like Vientos, wouldn’t be.

Where have you gone, Mark de Swaggy O? Mets fans turn their lonely eyes to you. Whoo Whoo Whoo.

Well, after going 0 for his first 3, he came up a 4th time. Could he avoid 3 for 50? 

Yes indeed. Mark homered off a minor leaguer named Varland.  

They all count. Every one.

A 404 footer. And more than 404 pounds of pressure removed from each shoulder.

Joander Suarez put up 4 scoreless and Watson added 3.1 scoreless. Good job by both.

Joltin’ Jack Reimer had a double and a walk - my friends, he can rake. On base 11 of 25 times (.440) in official spring games. I ran a 440 once in under 60 seconds. Not easy. Neither is .440.

In the main game on this Split Squad Saturday, Jonah Tong was good, giving up several soft hits and 3 runs, while walking none and fanning 5. Got in 78 pitches. Nice workload. Don’t nitpick him.

Some guy who only Ernest Dove knows, named AJ Salgado, came into the day 0 for 4 with 4 Ks. Not knowing AJ from DJ or JD, my expectations were low. Naturally, he went 3 for 3, including a triple, upping his spring average by 429 points. Do THAT again!  AJ was filling in for Mike Tauchman, who needed an MRI on his left knee. Ouch.

Marcus Semien? A nice over the shoulder catch and he raked a 3 run double.  “MVP!”

Ryan Lambert had a “shaky bad” outing.  He hit 99 a few times, but was mostly 97 on the FB, and wild. He gave up a 3 run blast to Christian Walker. After finally getting one out, on his 28th pitch, he was relieved. Bad day, go have some eggs and relax.

Lefty Aaron Rosek came in to complete the frame - both of his outs were via the K.

Two Mets losses on the day, neither of which count an iota on opening day.

RVH – The Blueprint for 93: Part V – The Bench and the Margins

 

The Final Layer of the Blueprint

Through the first four parts of this series, we have examined how the Mets can reach the 93-win threshold through structure.

Part I built the Engine, a pitching architecture designed to manage 1,458 innings across a long season.

Part II explored the October Contraction, the tightening of that structure into the 594 outs required to win a championship.

Part III introduced the Shield and Spine, concentrating defensive range up the middle to reduce stress on the pitching staff.

Part IV laid out the Run Creation Model, showing how the offense can generate roughly 760 runs without relying on one or two MVP-level seasons.

But every roster has one more layer.

The margins.

Over the course of a 162-game season, the difference between an 88-win team and a 93-win team is rarely found in the starting lineup. It is usually found in the dozens of moments when bench players influence the game.

Late-inning defense.
Pinch-hit matchups.
Rest days for starters.
Unexpected injuries.

The bench is not a collection of leftover roster spots. It is a specialized toolkit designed to give the manager tactical optionality while protecting the starting lineup from the cumulative wear of the season.

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The Projected Opening Day Bench

Based on the current roster structure, the Mets’ Opening Day bench projects to include four primary roles:

• Luis Torrens — Catcher
• Tyrone Taylor — Fourth Outfielder / Defensive Specialist
• Mark Vientos — Right-Handed Power Bat
• Mike Tauchman — Fifth Outfielder / Left-Handed OBP Bat

Each serves a very specific function within the broader roster architecture.

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The Catching Anchor

Luis Torrens – Backup Catcher

Backup catchers rarely generate headlines, but they quietly influence the stability of a pitching staff.

Torrens provides defensive reliability behind the plate and allows Francisco Alvarez to maintain his offensive impact over the full season without absorbing excessive defensive wear. His strong throwing arm also discourages aggressive baserunning, protecting the defensive structure established in The Shield and Spine.

On a roster built around pitching efficiency, that stability matters.

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The Defensive Weapon

Tyrone Taylor – Fourth Outfielder

Few bench roles are more valuable than the elite defensive fourth outfielder, and Taylor fits that profile perfectly.

Taylor can play all three outfield positions, allowing the Mets to protect leads late in games without compromising defensive range. His ability to slide into center field allows Luis Robert Jr. to shift to a corner if necessary, preserving the flexibility of the outfield defense.

But Taylor is not simply a glove.

He also brings occasional power, which makes him a credible pinch-hit option and spot starter when the lineup rotates. That combination — defensive versatility and legitimate offensive capability — gives Carlos Mendoza multiple late-game options.

In tight games, Taylor becomes a run-prevention multiplier.

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The Right-Handed Power Lever

Mark Vientos – Corner Infield / DH / Pinch-Hit Power

Every bench benefits from a player capable of changing the game with a single swing.

For the Mets, that role belongs to Mark Vientos.

Vientos’ right-handed power makes him a natural weapon against left-handed pitching and a dangerous option in late-inning pinch-hit situations. His ability to rotate between first base, third base, and designated hitter allows the Mets to deploy that power strategically throughout the season.

In many ways, Vientos represents the variance bat on the roster.

When he is locked in, he can turn a quiet inning into instant offense. When the lineup needs a day off, he provides legitimate middle-of-the-order power.

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The Left-Handed Stabilizer

Mike Tauchman – Fifth Outfielder

Tauchman rounds out the Opening Day bench as a high-IQ, low-variance offensive option.

He provides a disciplined left-handed bat with strong on-base skills and veteran situational awareness. When the Mets need to rest a starter or manage matchups against right-handed pitching, Tauchman offers a steady offensive presence without compromising defensive integrity.

While he may not carry the upside of some younger options, Tauchman brings something equally important over a long season:

predictability.

And in a roster built around structural balance, that predictability has real value.

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The Reality of the Bench: Built to Evolve

It is important to recognize that the Opening Day bench is not static.

Over the course of a 162-game season, the bench will evolve — often multiple times.

Performance shifts.
Injuries emerge.
Matchup needs change.
Prospects force their way into the conversation.

What matters is not the specific four names in April, but the structure behind the roles.

The Mets are not building a fixed bench. They are building a bench system — one that allows players to rotate in and out without breaking the underlying design.

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Reserve Capacity: The Syracuse Pipeline

A 93-win season is rarely achieved by the 26 players who begin the year on the Opening Day roster.

Depth matters.

In many seasons, 30 to 35 players contribute meaningful innings or plate appearances.

For the Mets, much of that reserve capacity is likely to come from the organization’s upper minor leagues.

Power Depth – Ryan Clifford

Clifford represents the organization’s primary power insurance. With elite exit velocities and strong plate discipline, he could become the natural mid-season reinforcement if the corner positions need additional offense.

Pure Hit Profiles – Jacob Reimer

Players such as Jacob Reimer offer high-contact, high-on-base offensive profiles that align well with the distributed run-creation model described in Part IV.

Rather than relying solely on outside acquisitions, the Mets’ system increasingly provides internal offensive bridges when injuries or slumps appear.

High-Upside Utility – Ronny Mauricio

Mauricio sits at the top of the impact depth tier.

A switch hitter with power and the ability to cover multiple infield positions, he represents a potential mid-season inflection point for the roster. If his development continues, Mauricio is not simply a replacement — he is a player capable of changing the shape of the lineup for stretches of the season.

Immediate Outfield Depth – MJ Melendez

MJ Melendez likely represents the first external reinforcement option for the outfield if injuries occur early in the season.

A left-handed power bat with the ability to play both corner outfield spots, Melendez brings legitimate offensive upside. If the Mets need a mid-season offensive spark in the outfield rotation, he offers a player with major-league experience capable of stepping into a larger role.

Developing Outfield Depth – AJ Ewing and Nick Morabito

The Mets also have promising outfield depth developing in the upper levels of the system.

AJ Ewing brings speed, athleticism, and defensive range that profile well for center field. His ability to impact the game on the bases and in the field could make him an intriguing mid-season call-up if additional outfield coverage is required.

Nick Morabito offers a similar skill set with a slightly different offensive profile. Known for his speed, contact ability, and defensive instincts, Morabito represents another potential internal solution if the Mets need additional outfield depth during the long season.

Players like Melendez, Ewing, and Morabito may not begin the season in Queens, but over the course of 162 games they form part of the organization’s reserve capacity, ensuring that injuries or fatigue do not destabilize the roster structure.

Catching Depth – Hayden Senger and Austin Barnes

Catching depth is one of the quietest forms of roster protection.

Hayden Senger provides strong defensive reliability behind the plate, while veteran options such as Austin Barnes bring experience and game-management skills that can stabilize a pitching staff if additional catching depth is needed.

Maintaining that depth ensures the Command Center behind the plate never becomes a structural vulnerability.

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Why Bench Design Matters

Bench construction is often misunderstood.

It is not about assembling the four most talented remaining players. It is about assembling four complementary tools — and a pipeline behind them — that allow the manager to respond to the unpredictable rhythms of a 162-game season.

The Mets’ projected structure provides:

• defensive flexibility (Taylor)
• pitching continuity (Torrens)
• situational power (Vientos)
• left-handed stability (Tauchman)
• dynamic depth behind the roster (Syracuse pipeline)

Those tools may not dominate headlines, but they often determine how a team navigates the small moments that accumulate into wins.

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The Complete Blueprint

When the five parts of this series are assembled together, the Mets’ roster reveals a clear structural philosophy.

The Engine manages the pitching workload.

The Shield converts contact into outs.

The Run Creation Model distributes offensive pressure.

The Bench System protects the roster when games become unpredictable.

Individually, these are roster decisions.

Together, they form a design.

A team built around structural stability rather than reliance on a single star outcome is better equipped to navigate the long season — and to tighten into the form required for October.

The blueprint is in place. The target is 93 wins.

But the objective remains the same as it always has been: October.

SAVAGE VIEWS – HOW DO WE STACK UP

A couple of weeks ago I made the outrageous claim that not only will the Mets win the NL East but will do so with a comfortable margin. In fact, I stated that they would wind up with the second best record in baseball trailing only the Dodgers. 

The main competitions to the NL East title are the Phillies and the Braves. Neither the Marlins nor the Nats are expected to be in the mix. The question posed is how well do we match against our two major opponents. The chart below shows my projected  match up and why the Mets will prevail.

	Mets	Rating		Phillies	Rating		Braves	Rating
C	Alvarez	6.25		Realmuto	4.5		Baldwin	5.5
1B	Baty	5.00		Harper	5.75		Olson	6.75
2B	Semien	4.75		Scott	6.50		Albies	6.25
SS	Lindor	7.00		Turner	7.00		Dubon	4.00
3B	Bichette	7.25		Bohm	6.00		Riley	6.00
LF	Soto	7.75		Marsh	4.50		Yastrzemski	5.25
CF	Robert	5.00		Crawford	4.75		Harris	5.00
RF	Benge	4.75		Garcia	4.25		Acuna	7.50
DH	Polanco	5.50		Schwarber	6.50		Murphy	4.50
		53.25			49.75			50.75

I figure the Phillies and the Mets have starting pitching staffs that are close to being equal. The Braves, on the other hand, have suffered significant injuries that will impact their season. In my opinion, the Phillies are an aging team that will likely incur injuries to key players. There’s a good chance that players such as Realmuto, Harper and Schwarber miss significant time. I’m assuming Benge is on the opening day roster. If not, I’d have to rethink my projections. I’ m also assuming Baty is the logical person to play first. Polanco is the best choice as the DH. Nothing else makes sense.

I expect our bench matches up well with the other two teams. My main concern is the bullpen. I have no idea how well we will perform this year. Early in the season, the pen will be decisive since the team will be fortunate to get more than 5-6 innings out of Senga, Holmes, Peterson and Manaea. Hopefully, Peralta and McLean provide some length to save the pen.

I’m hoping for a more mature Mendoza to manage the Mets deep into the playoffs. However, if the team does get off to a sluggish start, don’t be surprised to see a managerial change.

Ray

March 21, 2026