MACK - Lockout Update

 

A lockout by MLB owners is widely expected to begin on or around December 2, 2026, after the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1—there is no player strike underway or imminent.⁠ USA Today

The five-year CBA (reached in March 2022 after the previous 99-day lockout) ends soon, and both sides remain far apart. Owners are expected to implement a lockout immediately rather than continue operating under the old rules. A lockout freezes major-league transactions, free-agent signings, trades, and player-team contact (players are barred from team facilities) until a new deal is reached. Minor-league activity continues under a separate agreement.⁠ Bleacher Report

Core Dispute: Salary Cap

Owners are pushing hard for a salary cap (and floor), which baseball has never had. The MLBPA strongly opposes any hard cap, viewing it as a fundamental restriction on player earnings and free-market principles. This echoes the 1994–95 strike that canceled the World Series.⁠ Inquirer

Latest proposal (November 3, 2026): MLB offered to delay a hard salary cap/floor until the 2028 season (instead of 2027), with projected 2028 figures of a $258.2 million cap and $180.2 million floor (up from earlier proposals). For 2027, the current luxury-tax and revenue-sharing systems would largely remain. Other elements included raising the minimum salary (toward $1 million for many players), earlier free agency for some veterans (five years instead of six for players 30+), elimination of the qualifying-offer system, and other adjustments. The league framed this as allowing a smoother transition.⁠ CBS Sports

The MLBPA rejected it quickly, arguing it still requires accepting a cap system that would massively reduce overall player compensation (especially at the top), restrict rights (e.g., guaranteed contracts), and create a zero-sum environment. The union has repeatedly stated it will not accept a salary cap.⁠ Mlbtraderumors

Current Status (as of mid-November 2026)

Free agency is active for now (it opened after the World Series), so some deals can still happen before any lockout freezes everything.

Negotiations continue but are described as largely fruitless so far, with little expected progress before the deadline. Player unity against a cap is high.

Key upcoming dates include GM meetings, owner’s meetings (around mid-November), and the Winter Meetings (early December, which could be affected).

Potential Impact on 2027

Commissioner Rob Manfred has expressed confidence a deal can be reached in time to avoid major disruption, but many observers expect the lockout to extend into spring training or beyond (similar to or longer than the 2021–22 stoppage). Early-season games are lower-revenue, which can reduce owners’ urgency. Significant lost games (e.g., 60+) could trigger extensions of media deals. The 2027 season is at risk of a delayed start or abbreviated schedule depending on how long talks drag.⁠ CNN

In short: No games or major-league activity are disrupted yet, but a lockout is the near-universal expectation within about three weeks. The salary-cap issue is the main barrier, and resolution timing will determine the effect on the 2027 season.

UPDATE -

  https://x.com/mlbtraderumors/status/2120891423142633608?s=03

The current collective bargaining agreement expires in less than three weeks. There’s essentially no chance a new agreement will be reached before end of day on December 1. Major League Baseball will immediately implement a lockout to freeze all offseason activity.

As the sides brace for a lockout, Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal writes that MLB has begun to prepare for the possibility of one fairly extreme union action. Diamond suggests the league has planned for a scenario in which the MLBPA opts to file a disclaimer of interest during the lockout. That essentially means that the MLBPA would temporarily step down as an official union and sole bargaining unit on behalf of MLB players, instead operating as a trade association. (The players would surely recertify the MLBPA as an official union once there’s a new agreement in place.)

A disclaimer of interest would mean the MLBPA could no longer bargain on behalf of the players — at least until it’s reestablished as the sole bargaining unit. That would end collective bargaining negotiations without an agreement. Players would forfeit their protections under labor law but would be permitted to file their own antitrust lawsuits (likely in a class-action) against Major League Baseball.

It would be an extreme measure because it ends any hope of reaching a negotiated agreement through the collective bargaining process. One academic described it to Diamond as “the nuclear option.” The MLBPA has not disclaimed in prior negotiations, at least partially because of Major League Baseball’s century-old antitrust exemption.

According to Diamond, the Curt Flood Act of 1998 opens the door for the MLBPA, though the sides have managed to reach an agreement in every subsequent negotiation without decertification. That includes the 2022 negotiation, the first in which MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer (then the union’s lead negotiator) was involved.

Reese Kaplan -- Finding Available Lefty Relievers in Free Agency

While most of the baseball world is understandably distracted by the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, the Mets need more than just a dominant starting pitcher to help vault themselves back into contention as a decent team.  Today we’ll not look at the lackluster offense either.  Both are certainly agenda items to address for the 2027 if and when it takes place.

Today instead we will look at how to restructure and reinforce the bullpen that was actually better late in the year than anyone could have expected, but there are still big questions that need to be answered. We’re not going to delve into the Devin Williams vs. Kodai Senga as closer debate either.  

We will instead focus on the setup guys the team might try to buy on the free agent market to make what worked well with minimal experience in August and September by fortifying it with some experienced bullpen talent.

Right off the bat, two former Mets relievers are on the open market.  Brooks Raley was a great unknown when he came to the Mets from the Rays back in 2023 and he pitched far better than anyone could have reasonably expected.  He was already 35 years old and surprisingly appeared in 66 games, finishing the season with a highly impressive 2.80 ERA.  

In 2024 the season was pretty much lost to injury and he only got into 30 games in 2025 but again showed what he could do with a 2.45 ERA.  

Everyone looked forward to 2026 when he was fully healthy and dropped that 45 game stint to an ERA under 2.00.  He’ll be turning 39 during the 2027 season and his asking price plus proof of the ability to pitch in New York would make him a viable option.

Also immediately available is top quality southpaw AJ Minter.  He’s done spectacularly well for a variety of teams and the only black mark on his Mets metrics is the time he spent on the IL instead of on the mound.  For his career he’s been known to pitch in an average of 68 games per season and owns a lifetime 3.15 ERA.  He was a bit more expensive with his outgoing Mets contract paying him $11 million per season.  

While he would certainly provide the level of reinforcement the Mets need to support their starting pitchers, with all of the other holes needing to be filled you’re left questioning if spending half as much for Raley and relying on the 2026 rookie lefty Nate Lavender to address the need for southpaws.

 

Of course many decent options exist in the free agent marketplace, too.  Everyone has already heard a plethora of info about Padres setup star Adrian Morejon. Though he’s ending his Padres tenure on a $3.75 million salary it is understood that clubs looking not for a setup guy but a closer or a plan to convert to starting pitcher are going to jump that number probably three fold.

A less costly option would be the now former Dodger Alex Vesia.  

The now 30 year old Vesia owns a career ERA of just 2.87.  This past season he appeared in 72 games and his track record suggests he doesn’t wilt under big market pressure.  His ending salary with LA is $3.55 million.  He won’t cost as much as Morejon who is a flashier flame throwing strikeout specialist. 

After that are a collection of highly credible options who are not quite at the level of these four pitchers.  They would include:

Brock Burke

Yuki Matsui

Sean Newcomb

Steven Okert

JoJo Romero

MACK - Chain Position Analysis - Relief Pitching (Part One)

 

MACK –

 

RELIEF PITCHING

 

I am breaking up pitching into four separate posts.

One, for RED Prospect relievers.

The second and third for BLUE prospect relievers (the list is so long).

The fourth is for GREEN almost prospects.

I will save rating relievers until all three posts regarding them are completed.

 

Here are my RED Prospect relievers:

 

MLB/Mets – Devin Williams – (32) – RHRP – 2^nd rd. 2013 –

            2026:  44-apps, -0.5-WAR, 3-2, 4.43, 1.57, 40.2-IP, 21-BB, 52-K

The Mets looked past last seasons disappointing season with the Yankees (-0.3-WAR, 4.79) and dreamed of the 1.25, 1.53, and 1.93-ERAs he produced in the three pervious years for his original team, Milwaukee. It just didn’t happen.

Williams is signed through 2028, so he gets two more shots at this. He also has 517-K in a career of 338.1-IP.

My money is on him.

 

MLB/Mets – Reed Garrett – (33) – RHRP – 16^th rd. 2014 –

            2026:  on injured reserve (Tommy John Surgery)

In September 2026, he successfully threw live bullpen sessions, facing hitter. Told everyone that his are felt strong and would be ready to return on opening day 2027.

Garrett was signed through this past season for $1.3mil, but becomes arbitration-eligible for three years, ending with the 2029 season.

Prior to the injury, he had two workhorse seasons for the Mets (2024: 53-apps, 3.77… 2025: 58-apps, .390). Not all-star team stats, but good for a horse that works. Garrett has turned into the ultimate junk pitcher… currently only 4% of his repertoire is his 4-seam fastball.

I expect him to return to the same role he performed for the Mets in 24/25.

 

AAA/Syracuse – Saul Garcia – (23) – RHRP – IFA 2021 –

         2026: AA/Binghamton – 44-apps, 1-2, 3.99, 1.25, 49.2-IP, 19-BB, 66-K

                  AAA/Syracuse - 7-apps, 1-0, 1.64, 0.64, 11.0-1P, 3-BB, 8-K

Garcia had a remarkable 2025 (A+/AA: 1.70), but regressed a little this past season for the B-Mets; however, he seems to be back on track after seven appearances at the AAA level.

The sky is the limit for him on 2027, but he’s going to need more time in Syracuse before he can be considered for the parent team.

 

AA/Binghamton – Bryce Jenkins – (25) – RHRP – 17^TH rd. 2023 –

            2026:  A+/Brooklyn – 32-apps, 4-2, 1.99, 0.79, 40.2-IP, 15-BB. 47-K

                       AA/Binghamton – 13-apps, 4-0, 0.66, 1.09, 13.2-IP, 5-BB, 14-K

It’s hard to find anything done wrong in 2026 by Jenkins. Yes, his WHIP went up a when he was promoted to AA-ball, but his ERA went way down. I mean one total earned run down. Where he starts off next season is still undetermined. His age might push him to AAA.

Either way, he looks like a star in the making.

MACK – MEDIUM - 2027 MLB Draft Top 9 Prospects

https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/2027-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects  

Picks 7-9:

7. Malachi Butler (HS SS)

McEarchen HS (GA), Georgia Tech Commit

6' 3", 190 lbs, L/R

Butler is how you draw them up. A 6' 3", left-handed shortstop, Butler’s swing and operation is very efficient. There’s little to no unnecessary moving parts, quiet triggers, and a direct, compact path to the zone. It’s a swing built for contact, and Butler makes tons of it. It’s a simple approach best suited for working the gaps. 

Butler doesn’t chase out of the zone much, and pulls the trigger when he does get pitches within the zone. It’s already one of the most distinguished hit tools among the prep crop. The swing is very short, and can look to lack some leverage at times, but Butler hits the ball hard enough, and can put a charge into one enough to suggest he’ll end up someone with average raw power. Though, he’ll have to take more chances early in the count to punish the ball pull-side if he’s to tap into it.

Butler’s more of an average runner, but he’s got all the actions to suggest a long-term shortstop. He makes up for a his more lacking raw foot speed with a quick first step and the ability to make tough throws on the run. 

Butler is quick laterally and has solid average arm strength that’s good enough for shortstop. He’s no defensive show pony, either. The actions have consistently translated well to in-game settings. He’s got the potential to be an above-average defender there, although average may be a safer bet long-term.

Butler’s entire profile from top to bottom screams pro-caliber. It’s an offensive profile that keeps hitting easy and simple, it’s strong defensive actions at shortstop, and enough size to hope on some power coming on. A fairly high-floor hitter with enough upside to get potentially excited about. 

Additionally, Butler won’t even be 18 years old on Draft day, another plus in his game. There’s just simply not many holes to poke in Butler’s profile. This looks every bit the part of a first round prep shortstop.

 

8. Gavin Kelly (C/UTIL, West Virginia)

6' 0", 185 lbs, R/R

Kelly is yet another in the recent trend of athletic amateur catchers with speed and defensive versatility. Kelly may be the most athletic one yet, however, and may still have room left to grow.

At the plate, Kelly is rather upright, with a short stride forward, keeping his weight back, and getting the toe down early. He has obvious contact skills, showing big bat speed when he uncorks, both staying on velocity and holding his own on secondaries. He effectively spoils even when he’s fooled, shortening up with two strikes, and still generating enough force to consistently impact the baseball. 

He can get the ball in the air, working a gap-to-gap approach, more intent on impacting the ball than selling out for his game power. He’s able to have the ball squeeze out over the fence with a metal bat, though his power stroke is primarily to dead center field, and the opposite way. The raw power is mostly average to this point, and whether the game power can effectively translate with a wood bat like it has with metal is a question he’ll need to answer. 

He’s very adjustable, able to let the ball travel with ease, and recognizing spin within the zone, with some natural loft to the smooth right-handed stroke. He possesses a quiet approach that effectively stays off balls out of the zone, while not keeping the bat on his shoulder when he gets pitches within the zone. 

As currently constructed, his swing isn’t the most constructed for pull-side damage. He projects more as an average power, primarily doubles hitter kind of guy. He has the tools to potentially be a plus hitter.

Kelly is a true Swiss Army Knife that can fit in any position on the field. The catching chops are quite impressive, with impressive framing skills, plus lateral agility and blocking skills, and an above-average arm, showing himself adept at managing the running game and throwing out baserunners. 

He’s got the look of a plus or better catcher defensively. That’s not the end of the defensive train for Kelly, however. He’s a plus runner on the whole, who has good twitch and bend on the dirt, most of his time coming at second base there. He’s got plenty of range going to his right, and could be tried out as a shortstop in the low minors and see how he takes to it, as well. 

He’s gotten time in the outfield, too, and he’s got plenty of range out there, with strong reads and routes. Unlike your classic utility player who is a jack of all trades, master of none defensively, Kelly legitimately could play any defensive position on the infield, outfield, or behind the dish, and be a defensive asset.

Kelly’s best defensive position currently does appear to be catcher currently, but there is a not so silent crowd of evaluators who would like him to move out from behind the plate in favor of a position where he’d be able to get his bat in the lineup every day with less bodily risk to himself. Second base has been the most popular suggestion, though Kelly becoming a full-time second baseman removes a whole lot of the allure of the athlete.

 

9. Ryan McPherson (RHP, Mississippi State)

6' 3", 215 lbs

McPherson is a legit arm talent who checks a lot of boxes, even if he doesn’t necessarily excel at any one thing. Up to 99 mph, McPherson has a powerful frame and holds 94–97 mph in his starts with some authority, leading with the pitch and trying to establish it early. It’s very low-effort velocity. 

The shape is more solid than anything, and McPherson doesn’t hide the ball exceptionally well, leading to it playing more mediocre compared to how hard he throws it. It has more visual running life than carry, though the raw velocity certainly helps, he pounds the zone and can get it to the top rail when he’s on.

While McPherson won’t have every single pitch firing on all cylinders in one outing, each pitch can shows it’s flashes of being above-average or better depending on the night. His best bet of the bunch is an upper-80s changeup that he seriously sells, with impressive tunnel and depth. 

He can manipulate both more of a true changeup and splitter-like offspeed within that bracket, a testament for his feel for the offspeed. That feel makes it easy to project the pitch out as plus. His firm 83–86 mph knuckle curveball was once his bread and butter, though the pitch is more inconsistent now as the arsenal around it has improved. It still has solid, short movement, and can be effective when he’s picking and choosing his spots right, and putting it where he wants instead of letting it hang up in the zone. 

He began to show a harder upper-80s slider shape later into the year that looked better than his curve. So, while the changeup is the most effective weapon, he’s shown capable of spinning the ball and being able to get to firm, distinct shapes.

McPherson has a nice, simple motion that he has fantastic feel to consistently repeat. He does everything fairly well, with four pitches that can flash above-average, a plus changeup, good velocity, a good body, and above-average strikes. This is as good of a bet to be a big league arm, and a big league starter at the next level as it gets. 

It’s merely about what it looks like when he gets there. But this is a fairly low-variance number 3/4 starter at the next level who doesn’t have the raw traits or explosiveness to be too much more, and does too much well to be too much less. 

There’s a good deal of similarities in the motion to Brandon Woodruff. He may never have the fastball value Woodruff had, but the rest of the profile looks rather similar otherwise.

RVH - Milwaukee and the Mets, Side by Side (Part 4)

 

Milwaukee won 29 more games than the Mets in 2026 on an estimated payroll of roughly $142 million to New York’s $358 million. The difference extends beyond one season. Over three years, the Brewers reached October every year and won a pennant. The Mets made one postseason run and reached the National League Championship Series. 

The comparison raises a practical question for New York. What did Milwaukee have across its roster that the Mets could not consistently replace when players got hurt or underperformed?

Three seasons of results

Measure	Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets
2024 record	93–69	89–73
2025 record	97–65	83–79
2026 record	103–59	74–88
Three-year record	293–193 (.603)	246–240 (.506)
Postseason appearances	3	1
Deepest postseason result	2026 World Series berth	2024 NLCS
Estimated 2026 payroll	$142M	$358M

Payroll figures are October draft estimates. Postseason results are stated through the original comparison date.

Where the production came from

Milwaukee’s selected six included Jacob Misiorowski, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell and William Contreras. Together they produced 26.9 FanGraphs wins above replacement. The Mets’ selected six produced 17.1 fWAR. The cost comparison uses annual average value (AAV) for both groups, which differs from the listed 2026 salaries used for Milwaukee in Part 1.

Selected six players	Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets
2026 fWAR	26.9	17.1
Combined annual contract cost	$28.2M	$86.0M
Annual cost per fWAR	$1.05M	$5.03M
Estimated value at $8.5M per WAR	$229.0M	$145.5M
Estimated value above cost	$200.8M	$59.4M

The valuation benchmark is illustrative. Figures reflect the original draft’s rounded estimates for six players per club.

Depth and the next wave of talent

The Mets had a version of Milwaukee’s affordable core starting to emerge. Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and A.J. Ewing accounted for about 11.8 fWAR at roughly $3.1 million in the October analysis. That gives New York players it can build around at a manageable cost. It also raises the importance of the roles around them. An injury to a starter tests the quality of the next pitcher. A weak bat in a regular lineup spot tests whether the next player can improve the offense while handling the position.

Control affects how long each club can benefit. Milwaukee’s guarantee with Chourio runs through 2031 and includes club options for 2032 and 2033. The October estimate put Misiorowski under club control through 2031 and Turang through 2029. 

New York has years of control over its emerging young group and long-term commitments to Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. That combination gives the Mets room to improve the supporting roster through both internal promotions and external acquisitions.

The October prospect snapshot identified five Brewers prospects graded 50 future value or higher by FanGraphs, led by Jesús Made at 65. The Mets had two at 50 or higher, Jefferson Rojas and Elian Peña. A future-value grade is a scouting estimate. The decision that matters this winter is whether a prospect is ready to cover a major-league role on the date the club needs him.

The offseason implication

Milwaukee has had more ways to replace innings and position-player production without relying on a single acquisition. It still has injury risk and uneven depth in some roles. New York has the financial capacity to buy coverage where its pipeline is thin. The immediate work is to go position by position, identify who can carry the load and decide where a dependable second option is worth paying for.

The Mets already have expensive stars and promising inexpensive players. Turning that combination into a contender requires enough dependable production between them. Part 5 looks at how much of that roster took shape under David Stearns.

Paul Articulates – How close are the Mets?

The GM meetings began on Tuesday in Las Vegas.  The baseball world is swirling with discussion about what will transpire at the meetings, as it is the first big opportunity after the free agent market opened up for the GMs to come together face-to-face.  Also present will be several key agents and possibly even some of the clients.  The urgency, of course, is due to the pending expiration of the collective bargaining agreement at the end of the month.  If unresolved, which is almost a given, a lockout would ensue and shelve any negotiations and signings that are not completed.

The buzz on the street is that the Mets are in the thick of the Tarik Skubal race, and several other teams including the formidable Dodgers are in competition.  The prevailing opinion is that the Mets need to sign Skubal and that need will drive a very aggressive posture by David Stearns and Steve Cohen.

It is obvious why the Mets need Skubal, but that is the same reason that other teams need Skubal – he is the most talented pitcher out there, with multiple Cy Young awards before his 30th birthday (later this month).  He would be a game changer for any playoff-ready team.  One could count on him to bring more regular season victories than any predecessor, and once in the playoffs he would be the favored ace in any game 1.

But if the Mets are to cash in on Skubal, they have to be ready to win more than just a wild card series.  They need to be a team that has a high probability of overcoming some already talented teams in the National League like the Dodgers, the world champion Brewers, and the Braves.

Mets fans have shown great optimism about their future, as they have a young, talented group of starting pitchers in Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and Zac Thornton.  They have two dynamic young players in AJ Ewing and Carson Benge (who should have been rookie of the year) and the generational player Juan Soto.  With Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette anchoring an infield that will likely see the infusion of additional young talent like Jefferson Rojas, what is not to like?

Well, frankly, the answer is history.  The Mets, who had many of these players available throughout 2025 and some of them in 2025, accumulated a 112-143 record (.439) from June 13, 2025 through the present.  Skubal, who has averaged 14 wins per season in the last three years with good teams, would only add 8-9 wins over Sean Manaea (6 wins last year) or Freddy Peralta (5 wins last year).    That may or may not get a 74 win team to the threshold of a wild card game, but it does not feel like domination.

I admit that there are many variables at play here.  The Mets had some tough luck with injuries, they had a manager in Carlos Mendoza that was not pulling the right levers, and their losing streaks lacked a pitcher that could be a streak stopper every five days.  But it takes a lot more than that to be a team that competes with franchises like the Dodgers who averaged 100.4 wins per season over the last five years or the Brewers (95.0 wins/year) or the Braves (96.2 wins/year).

Here is what I believe a Tarik Skubal-led New York Mets team needs to have to win a championship:

• A first baseman capable of 30 HR and 100 RBI in a season

• A second baseman with a strong positive DRS/OAA rating and a .380 OPS

• Dominance from McLean and/or Scott, not just very good seasons.  Think what Koosman was to Seaver or Darling/Ojeda/Fernandez was to Gooden

• A lock-down closer that saves 90% of opportunities

• A team batting average in the .255-.260 range

Here is what the current New York Mets roster has:

• The current roster does not include any first basemen close to the mark.  

• The team has some legitimate prospects for second base that some day may reach the mark, but not likely in their first season.  Semien won’t get there.  

• Both McLean and Scott are capable of being great pitchers but have not reached that level yet.  Scott spent last year working his way back into full-season play after over a year down with injury but was only 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA.  McLean had dominant innings but needs to eliminate “bad innings” to reach his potential.  

• Nine teams last year had closers with a 90% save percentage.  Devin Williams had an 84.2% save percentage (16/19).

• The Mets team batting average last year was .239.  In the last five years, their best season (2022) was .259, led by four players that are no longer with the team: Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso.

I would not discourage David Stearns from making the big play to get Tarik Skubal.  I just think that there is a whole lot of work to be done to turn that play into a championship season.

MACK – MEDIUM - 2027 MLB Draft Top 9 Prospects

 

https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/2027-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects  

Picks 4-6:

4. Dylan Seward (HS SS)

Norco HS (CA), Tennessee Commit

6' 0", 180 lbs, S/R

Seward is an exceptional athlete who brings with him true impact tools on both sides of the ball. A true 80 grade runner, Seward can really turn on the jets and post loud run times on the bases. It translates well to the field, too. Seward is an excellent shortstop defender. It’s elite actions with above-average arm strength. He combines violent athleticism with a polished defensive toolkit. He could be a double plus defender. And he’s a presence on the bases, a true stolen base threat who projects as a 30+ SB a year kind of guy. The combination of such loud defensive and baserunning value already provides him a high floor off the rip.

Offensively, Seward is a switch hitter who shows plenty of promise and tools. He’s better from the right side, where he typically hits the ball harder, and shows more bat speed. The left side is passable, though the bat’s more sluggish, and he has less barrel accuracy from that side presently. He tends to show out best in batting practice, where he shows solidly average power in the tank long-term, with the potential for 20+ home runs. Converting those tools into games has been more difficult, however. Seward’s shown hit tool risk from both sides of the plate, the biggest hole being velocity up in the zone, present from both sides, but more prevalent from the left side. He has experience, and has been tested against good competition throughout his high school career. Against better competition, he has a tendency to fold a bit more than you’d like to see.

There’s been plenty of examples of this archetype in recent years near the top of the draft. The best comparison would be Jacob Lombard in terms of tools. That being said, Seward’s overall swing and hit tool visually looks much better than did the ultra-risky Lombard who ran one of the highest summer circuit whiff rates we’ve ever seen among top draft prospects with an extended sample size. The tools are truly elite, and Seward provides a higher innate floor than does someone like Lombard. His tools are albeit a gurantee that Seward won’t make it out of the top 5–8 picks of any class, realistically. And he looks to have the highest ceiling out of anyone in the class, with true superstar level tools if it all works out. 

5. Tomas Valincius (LHP, Mississippi State)

6' 2", 225 lbs

Valincius has as dynamic of a pitch mix as you’ll ever find in a college lefty at this stage. Up to 98 mph, Valincius holds 94–96 mph on his fastball that naturally possesses late running life that’s a real pain to square up. He gets weak contact from hitters of both handedness. More than that, Valincius naturally hides the ball well in his motion, releasing from a low launch, and he can blow some guys up at the top of the zone if need be, too.

Valincius’ best pitch is a slider he manipulates that can look like one of the best sliders in the country when it’s on. It’s a hard breaking ball into the upper-80s at times with sharp, hellacious late break. He can pitch it to both LHH and the back foot of RHH if he needs to. It pairs with the two-seamer quite well, the two pitches staying in the same tunnel until they both break late in different directions. It’s a bit of a baby sweeper, but the action is befitting of a true impact offering, a potential double plus breaking ball from the left side. It’s a tight, hard breaker that looks big leaguer ready today.

He’s not just a sinker/sweeper merchant, though, and shows a variety of differing shapes. He pronates an upper-80s changeup well that projects forward, as well. The pitch projects above-average, with solid action off the firm fastball and good feel to sell and locate the pitch already. There’s a slower true sweeper that he’ll throw in the mix as well, and a cut fastball he’ll flash as well. A good diet of secondaries behind a firm foundation.

Valincius possesses a workhorse frame with a clean, polished delivery. He has good pace to his motion, and has learned to better tap into his athleticism below the bulky body. He’s put in the work to improve the look of the body as a whole, too. He is a consummate strike thrower that’ll stick as a starter with solidly above-average strikes. It’s extremely polished. This clay from the left side is rarely this refined, and it’s not hyperbole to say Valincius is a pro ready prospect right now.

 

6. Jimmy Janicki (C, Troy)

6' 3", 230 lbs, R/R

Janicki possesses one of the more lethal offensive profiles in the class, and has tools suggesting real aircraft carrier kind of potential. At the plate, Janicki has a high handset with the hands fairly out from his body, and works completely no-stride. While it can look unorthodox, however, Janicki’s operation works quite well for him, hinging on his back-side, and generating impressive force, loft, as well as hand and bat speed.

Janicki possesses loud offensive traits and skills. An aggressive swinger, Janicki does run high chase rates, but it’s excused by his many other offensive abilities. His feel for contact is very impressive, able to cover both in and out of the zone. And, an immensely physical hitter, Janicki is in no hurry to try and pull the ball. But he’s as good as any hitter in the country when it comes to getting to the fat part of the bat. He absolutely pummels the baseball, boasting double plus raw power and top-end exit velocities, and has added more depth to his swing, allowing him to get the ball in the air more often, allowing the raw to translate to game power. He lets fastballs travel the other way, with impressive back-side power, picking up and adjusting to spin in the zone, and torching it pull-side. On the whole, Janicki is a player who’s incredibly difficult to pitch to. He hammers every pitch type, covers every part of the zone with ease, and makes tons of contact. The only potential hole may be big velocity, given his no-stride nature, but it’s not even really a yellow flag. Janicki has the look of a potential monster bat, and he’s certainly got the makings of a 30 home run hitter if he can get enough at-bats to get to that threshold at the next level.

Janicki is an impressive athlete who’s shown he can man third base in a pinch, the position he manned as a freshman. He got to be the backstop as a sophomore, and looked like a real natural immediately. The visual framing skills are very impressive, with big, sweeping glove movements, looking at his best at the bottom of the zone, primarily, though he overall looks like an above-average receiver. He’s a strong athlete as a whole, an above-average runner with an above-average arm, which should both show out well defensively as he gets more reps and pro coaching. Janicki will comfortably stick behind the dish with the look of a solidly above-average defender.

Janicki is an extraordinarily well-rounded player who’s really come into his own. He is a mid-major hitter, but he was one of the biggest standouts in the country in the playoffs and MCWS, facing premier competition, and still didn’t break a sweat against some of the best in the country. More than that, it seemed as if he got better every game. He was still constantly finding refinements and adjusts that unlocked another gear, even against the best in the country. Janicki is a really explosive talent, with the look of a potential middle of the order bat who holds his own at the most rigorous position on the field. He’s got star upside.