11/10/26

MACK – MEDIUM - 2027 MLB Draft Top 9 Prospects

 


https://medium.com/@oliver.mitsuo/2027-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects

Picks 1-3:


1. Dax Whitney (RHP, Oregon State)

6' 5", 220 lbs

Whitney looks the part of a truly special pitching prospect. He’d gotten first round buzz in 2024 as a prep arm from Idaho, but his price tag was ultimately too steep, and he ended up at Oregon State. He took a chance on himself and the program, and it’s paid off in spades.

Whitney has grown into an athletic 6' 5" frame, with a high waist and long levers. Working the 1B side of the rubber, Whitney lands closed off. It’s a gorgeous mover on the mound, with a short arm circle, attacking from an over-the-top slot with some shoulder tilt that’s tight to the body. It’s a loose, whippy arm action, up to 100 mph with massive cut and ride from a higher launch. 

He’s 96–99 mph in extended outings with strong extension, with so much power behind the fastball that he effortlessly blows back hitters with it, anywhere in the zone. It’s got the look of a potential double plus heater.

Whitney’s got a cacophony of brilliant secondaries to compliment the big fastball. He’s got great capacity for spin, with spin rates frequently eclipsing 2900 rpm on the breaking balls. There’s separate slider and sweeper shapes that can blend together in terms of velocity, in the mid-to-upper-80s. 

The slider shape stays on plane vertically, a true slider that possesses some lift. In the similar velocity range, the sweeper has hard, late break off the fastball with more depth and sweep. 

The slider looks plus, while the sweeper could be double plus. They’re both hard, sharp, and with legit bend and break off of the fastball, pitches he executes well. 

His third breaking ball is a curveball that’s he’s shown to manipulate. It’s got a ton of depth, with hammer qualities sometimes in the low-80s, but he’ll throw it down into the mid-70s as well, as more of a strike stealer. This certainly looks like an above-average offering.

Whitney’s feel for a changeup doesn’t disappoint when it comes to the other pitches, as well. Thrown in the 86–90 mph range, Whitney really kills spin well on the pitch, with conviction and feel that’s sequentially improved over time. It works off the steeper heater well, with strong vertical and horizontal separation, darting arm-side. It, too, looks like a plus pitch.

What Whitney does is truly generational. It’s double plus velocity, five pitches with differential shapes, feel and conviction to throw and execute all of them, strong strikes, and an extended track record of punching tickets at a high level. It’s four or more plus pitches, with more than one possessing double plus upside, all his pitches generating ample whiff and chase. 

This is the kind of pitcher a ten-year-old crafts up in a video game. It’s a skillset that seems almost fictional in how outlandish it is.

There is not a nit to pick in the skillset and profile. The only singular one is the unfortunate circumstances of health. Whitney underwent UCL surgery in May of 2026. The outlook is still unclear, but there’s a solid chance that Whitney does not throw another pitch before the 2027 draft. 

That means that Whitney’s draft stock may be essentially set. But that does not eliminate the fact that he is certainly the most talented player in the class. This is true frontline, ace potential who could win some awards.

 


2. Brendan Lawson (3B/SS, Florida)

6' 3", 215 lbs, L/R

Lawson is a large, imposing left-handed hitter who has turned himself into one of the most exciting bats in the country. The physicality and underlying toolkit is immense, and the upside is impressive.

Lawson starts tall, with a higher handset and narrow feet. He’s got interesting triggers, almost akin to a toe tap into another toe tap, varying and manipulating his forward move often in order to be on-time. Despite the odd variety to it, Lawson is able to create space and get into his lower half, and consistently be on-time. He seems to see the ball well and early, helping him get away with this. 

The swing is simple and controlled, with big bat speed generated by strong wrists and natural loft. Lawson covers all quadrants of the strike zone effectively, and shows impressive adjustability for a slugger type, especially when it comes to recognizing and adjusting to spin. He makes plenty of contact, and it helps his immense raw power. 

Lawson easily surpasses the plus raw power threshold, and hammers the ball with such consistency that it could be double plus, with an authoratative feel for the barrel. There’s certainly 30 home run upside here, and he’s got the approach, and the hitting chops to be an above-average hitter. He’s shown not only capable of slugging it, but getting to balls way outside the zone and doing something with them he has no business doing, a deadly combination. 

Lawson is a Canadian player who has played in various wood bat summer leagues since he was a prepster, and his track record with a wood bat is as good as it gets, another large box to check off.

Lawson has ample athletic tools to back up the bat. He can register plus run times, and has manned shortstop for Florida in recent times. He’s rather large for the position. He can look good charging in on balls and bending his body to make throws, but his hands and internal clock can be a bit sluggish, suggesting he’s likely to move off the position. 

Third base is the natural endpoint, where his above-average arm strength will play comfortably. He could be an above-average defender there, as well. He’s been willing to steal some bags on occasion, though he’ll tend to pick and choose his moments to strike.

Lawson has an exceptionally well-rounded profile centered around a hitter who has the size, metrics, power, and track record with a wood bat to move quickly up the ladder. 

He’s hit at very stop, against the best competition at the collegiate level. The offensive upside makes him a true middle of the order threat.

 


3. Landon Hairston (OF, Arizona State)

5' 11", 195 lbs, L/L

Hairston was absolutely unreal as a sophomore, the best hitter in the entire country, and the runner up for the Golden Spikes as a sophomore. Simply put, the combination of both hit tool and game power he’s shown is unmatched.

Hairston makes it look so simple and easy in the box. A left-handed hitter, Hairston’s got a bigger leg kick with a bit of a mild hitch to the load, which can be a touch inconsistent at times. But he’s generally slotted, and boasts unbelievable feel for the barrel. 

Hairston’s a smaller guy, but he punches well above his size. He doesn’t need to sell out for the pull-side at all, with both the ability to blast it pull-side, and launch it on his back-side with authority, as well. He utilizes good natural loft and leverage in the swing to naturally output loud game power while not sacrificing his impressive hitting ability. 

Hairston has shown he matches up well against premier stuff, and even when he’s fooled, or chases out of the zone, he shows loose hitting hands that will allow him to still flick an extra base hit down the line the other way. He’s on the aggressive side of things, but has all the right to be so, given his insane production and effectiveness. 

Hairston is, simply put, one of those players who looks like he’s in a whole different league than everyone else on the field. He’s got a good chance at plus hit and plus power. He plays with a competitive fire.

Hairston’s athleticism has steadily improved, too, a more silent part of his game. He’s now gotten tried out in center field, where he looks sneaky solid. He’s a solid average runner who lacks the raw athleticism to stick there in the long run, but it’s allowed him to show that he has good instincts and takes efficient routes to the ball in the outfield. 

He should play there until he shows he can’t any longer, but even if a move to left field is likely, all he’s shown lends confidence he’ll be a strong defender in a corner, and won’t need to shift to first base down the line, a legitimate risk when he was a freshman.

Surprisingly, there actually isn’t much precedent in recent history for a shorter left-handed hitting left fielder with legit plus hit, plus power. That does seem more like a funny little coincidence than it is indicative that the skillset won’t translate. 

At the very least, Hairston should be a big league caliber hitter. It would be difficult to see otherwise.

Steve Sica - Opinion. Expand the MLB Playoff Length, not the Field



As MLB gears up for a lockout, plenty of options will be on the table this winter. One of the more intriguing ones is expanding the postseason, and a rule that sounds like it came out of your drunk Fantasy Football Commissioner. Pick your playoff team.

Clearing the air here before diving in. Having a team pick their playoff team has to be one of the most unserious proposals ever made in a professional sports league. It's something you mention to your buddies after one too many shots at a Bachelor Party, not something that should actually be considered a real proposal.

I truly hope that gets nowhere near approved. But moving on. One of the proposals I'd like to see done is expanding the playoff length. 

Currently, MLB's playoff format is uneven. The WCS is three games, the LDS is five, and the LCS and World Series are seven.

The two other major sports in America, the NBA and NHL, adopted a best-of-seven series for all rounds nearly 30 years ago. MLB remains awkwardly behind. The best solution to this would be a bit unbalanced but certainly more fair and entertaining.

Turn the WCS into a best-of-five, the LDS into a best of seven. A team shouldn't win its division, or win 95+ games as a Wild Card, to have their season come down to a best-of-three series. Even the worst team can top the best team in baseball under that format. Happens all the time in the regular season.

Have both teams play games in their home park. Mirror the LDS rules of today, except for the sake of time, eliminate that awkward off day between games one and two. There's no travel since both those games are on the same site, so just have them play back-to-back.

The LDS should be best of seven. Once you get through or earn the bye into this round, a seven-game series is the best measuring stick for success. Anything can happen in a five-game series,  but a best-of-seven? Usually, the best team will come out on top due to the length and team depth needed to survive a longer series.

MLB owners should be foaming at the mouth with this proposal. More playoff games means more viewers and certainly more fans in the seats. The issue? How long would the MLB playoffs last? MLB has always shied away from extending the season into November. But why? 

The weather in early November is usually better than watching snow-filled, sub-freezing temperatures during games in late March. MLB should not be afraid to play games in November, so long as the postseason product is entertaining, fans will watch, and at least in playoff team markets, would tune out the NFL on Sundays.

MLB is about to make a lot of changes to the league, for what feels like the millionth time this decade. Let's hope they get it right this time.

Cautious Optimist: Laddering Up: Part III (Creating A Top Tier Starting Rotation)

 



Completing the Starting rotation

The evidence suggests that the Mets have several pieces in place that, if augmented in the right ways, could give them a top tier pitching rotation.

Not just during the regular season, but in the playoffs as well.

The core four are McLean, Scott, Thornton and Tong.  All have ERAs this past year below 4.0 whereas the league average is 4.07.  

McLean separates himself from the rest by the fact that he has the best stuff, has tossed the most innings and produced the lowest ERA.  He is nowhere near his peak: a potential ACE; at worst, a very credible #1 starter.

Scott ranks next, has a limited but excellent arsenal short a compelling off-speed pitch. He would benefit from a change-up that works away from left handed hitters.  He needs to improve his efficiency as well. 

None of the core four is more efficient than Thornton, which is doubly impressive.  He has the least experience of the core four and, on paper, the least impressive stuff.  What he does have is confidence in his stuff, full commitment to almost every pitch he throws, and grit.  Virtually unflappable.  Love it.

Thornton is the back of the rotation lefty that Stearns thought he was getting when he resigned Manaea for 3yrs and 75million.  Thornton will earn less than that and perform considerably better.

Which brings us to Tong.

I don't think fans understand how big a risk he took by changing his release point this year.  He may have done it to increase his ability to throw a pitch with horizontal movement, something that had previously alluded him. What really matters, however, is that the collateral benefit of his doing so has saved his career (IMO), by eliminating undue strain on his lumbar spine and inevitable consequence of the lateral bend needed to turn his 3/4 arm angle into an over the top release.. 

Every pitch he relied on in the past responds differently from his new release point.  Every one.  This means he could no longer rely on his fastball and change-up -- his two best pitches -- working as they had when he was naming the top pitcher in the minor leagues. Talk about risk taking.

He has changed his release point, but continues to drop and shift his head left, a movement that is no longer necessary given the change in release point.  Like Linsocum, the head movement can be distracting and deceptive to hitters, but it is worse for Tong.  The extent of neck/head tilt misaligns the eyes.   We all see best  when our eyes are more level.

The tilt sends innacurate pictures to the brain that distort actual alignment of the target area.  I am convinced this contributes to the increased lack of command and consequent inefficiency Tong experienced during the course of this past season.  It needs to be corrected but will take time for him to own his entire new movement pattern and his arsenal.

On the other hand, while Tong has the most work to do of the four, he has the potential to slot in ahead of Scott and just behind McLean.  He's got Thornton's commitment to his craft and grit with potentially more electric stuff, but a more limited arsenal than McLean.

Stearns is on record asserting that the Mets need to have 8 available starters, which obviously means that some of them will spend most of the year in AAA and perhaps AA.  8 pitchers occupying 5/6 regular spots.

The core four brings us halfway there.

What more do the Mets need among the starting rotation to move them to a near elite level?

My approach is to divide the remaining four slots into two different groups: 5 and 6 in one group; 7 and 8  (and 9, 10?) in another.  5 and 6 will see regular action during the season; 7 and 8 will see most of their action in the minors.  Indeed, it is likely that the Mets will probably have 10 pitchers make starts next year (not counting openers), and that pitchers 7-10 will be camped in the minors but for injuries and occasional starts.

Let's get that list out of the way first since they won't be essential (unless the team is ravaged by injuries) to whether the rotation is near elite or not.

I have Santucci as my top choice among the bottom four and expect that Wenninger, Cota, Watson and Hill/Gill will see some time in the majors this year.

The fifth and sixth pitchers in 2027 are not currently in the organization

This means obtaining them will cost resources in the form of money or assets.  

It also means that if the Mets are serious about putting together a top tier top 6, they need to have more than one plan for doing so, as the competition for really first rate pitching is always strong.

And as Elon Musk found out on election night, money doesn't always win.

So what's the plan Stan?

I am going to shorten this a bit by asserting that there are a lot of Plan A-s and all of them start with signing Skubal as the ACE that takes this group of 4 to the level of a rotation that you could be confident in over any playoff series of any length. Period.  

All Plan A-s include as the second pitcher an innings eater capable of pitching a 4th game in a 7 game series. Skubal is not an innings eater. As of now, the only pitcher who can be counted on for innings on a per game basis is McLean.  

Here are some plausible names at varying price points for the second addition to a staff led by Skubal: Gausman, Mahle, May, Roy and Gray

These are all FA.  Gausman and Gray are craftsmen; both are older but very reliable. They are both short term contracts which would be desirable.

Roy is back healthy, and a crafty lefty who still has good stuff. Mahle and May have good stuff and upside as well. Mahle showed up last year; May, not yet.

Can/should the Mets go all in on Skubal?

The Mets won't be outbid for his services in years or dollars, but the rationality of the offer depends on its structure.  

Whatever the total compensation the contract calls for, I would front load it significantly over the first four years with an option for Skubal to enter free agency after the 4th year.  Front loading works to the player's advantage, but does the Mets no harm in this case. I would also include a clause that allows the Mets to make an offer to enhance the the remaining term of the contract that would if accepted, annul the option.

The general terms of the deal that would annul the option would be worked out as part of the original contract. 

The net effect would be that Skubal would have three potential salaries/deals to look at after 4 years: the original contract which would be relatively steeply declining over years 5-its conclusion; the enhancement deal that replaces the back end of the initial deal; and the amount that he and Boras believe he can receive should he declare himself a free agent after the 4th year. 

The Mets get the best pitcher in baseball for 4 years at least and can determine what they would like to do thereafter, either by letting him leave, enhancing their deal to prevent that or hoping he takes the original deal for security reasons or if he is no longer capable of performing as an ace.

I don't really feel it necessary to rank the other alternatives, but for ease I will put them in order.

Plan B1
Michael King is the headliner.  5 year deal at 1/2 of Skubal's full price.  Structure the deal similarly with a player option after year 3 that can be nullified by an extension or enhancement offer within certain parameters. Several number 2 pitchers make sense with King headlining but you need more than just an innings eater as his partner.

My preferred choice would be Morejon who is left handed, a one time starter who is a world class back of the bullpen pitcher at this point.  He has a four pitch mix and a fastball that reaches 100.  He could be a top tier starter and no worse than a 4 on the Mets staff.

Both King and Morejon are FA.  
 
Plan B2 King and Joe Ryan (going to arbitration, which will reduce the price of obtaining him in a trade.) 

Both have big game experience and can mentor the young staff


Plan B3. King and Morejon and Holmes.  

Obviously jumping ahead a bit, but neither Morejon nor Holmes is an innings eater, but if you throw in Holmes on a 2 year contract, just think of the quality of the bullpen you would have in any playoff series.  Or you could piggyback Holmes and Morejon in a game 4

Plan B4. King and Deitmers (requires a trade)

Plan C1. Logan Gilbert (requires a trade) and Morejon

Plan D.1  Alcantra (requires a trade) and Sonny Gray.

Plan D 2. Alcantra (requires a trade) and Morejon and Holmes

Plan D 3. Alcantra and Mahle and Holmes


I could add several other possible combinations but I'd rather hear what you have to say.

And the bill is?

The core four is incredibly inexpensive.  

Any plan that includes Skubal is going to cost @50m for 4 years plus whatever the innings eater receives.

Every option that does not include Skubal will cost less and in each case I  included only one trade in order to keep as many high end assets as possible.  

The key for me in all of these moves is to fill the gap at the top of the rotation first.  

Skubal is the obvious first choice.

King, Gilbert and Alcantra would all be lesser catches, but difference makers nonetheless.  Pairing any of the latter with a veteran like Gausman or Sonny Gray or a high upside arm like Dietmers or (my favorite) Morejon would be transformative.

Have some fun with this and tell me what direction you would go in.  Impose some limits on total expenses and then have at it.

Who would you be willing to give up in a trade for Gilbert?  Alcantra? Dietmers?  Ryan?










11/9/26

MACK – Carson Wiggins

 


Baseball America              @BaseballAmerica

Mets first-round pick Carson Wiggins enters BA's 2027 rankings as New York's No. 9 overall prospect

Assuming a full recovery from Tommy John surgery, Wiggins has power stuff that will play in pro ball. The only question is whether his control and durability will be enough to work as a mid-rotation starter or if he’s better suited as a leverage reliever.

Grok –

Carson Wiggins (RHP, Arkansas/Mets 2026 first-round pick, No. 27 overall) has a high-upside power arsenal led by an elite fastball-slider combination, with developing secondary pitches.⁠

He is a 6-foot-5, 215-pound right-hander from Roland, OK (Roland HS). He threw only 14 innings as a true freshman at Arkansas in 2025 (1-1, 3.21 ERA, 20 K, 9 BB in 14 relief appearances) before an elbow injury led to internal brace surgery; he missed all of 2026. The Mets signed him for the full slot value of about $3.47 million.


Pitch repertoire

Fastball: 

Elite (often graded 70–80). Averaged ~98–99 mph in 2025 college action (topped 102 mph); features late hop/carry/ride and above-average spin (~2,500 rpm). At the 2026 MLB Draft Combine (not full effort post-surgery), it sat mid-90s and peaked at ~97.4 mph. Pure power heater that generates swing-and-miss.⁠

Slider: 

Plus to plus-plus (often graded 60–70). Upper-80s (high-spin, ~2,500–2,700+ rpm) with depth, two-plane or sharp horizontal break; generates high chase/whiff rates (e.g., ~74% miss rate and 1-for-16 with 14 K in limited 2025 sample). Primary out-pitch that pairs extremely well with the fastball.⁠

Curveball: 

Developing/power curve (graded ~50–55). Mid-80s with more top-down/vertical shape; high spin (e.g., ~2,719 rpm at Combine). Used less frequently in college; part of post-surgery expansion of the arsenal.⁠

Changeup: 

Below-average to fringe (graded ~40–50). Mid- to low-80s with some tumble/fade; shown more in high school, used sparingly at Arkansas. He has worked on it (and occasionally a splitter) to add depth.⁠

In college he was primarily a two-pitch (FB/SL) reliever with electric pure stuff but inconsistent command/control (elevated walk rate). Post-surgery he has emphasized polishing off speed pitches and command for potential starter upside. 

Scouts see a high ceiling as a front-line starter if command and secondaries improve, or a high-leverage/late-inning reliever (or closer) based on the FB/SL alone.


MACK:

You know how I hate it when the Mets drafts damaged players. Especially pitchers. On paper, Wiggins has everything you want from a first-round pick, but he went into this surgery with a huge control problem. What comes out is nobody’s guess at this point.

Paul Articulates - Choose wisely


A discussion amongst the writers at Mack’s Mets inspired this piece.  It applies to the looming Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expiration.  That date is less than a month away, but we are already into a part of the off-season that is typically very busy for the front offices in baseball.  

There are free agents available, there are Qualifying Offers (QOs) on the table, there is a pending rule 5 draft.  All of these would necessitate urgent action – yet the rules are about to dramatically change, and therefore the consequences of urgent action are largely unknown.

Let’s get more specific: one of the priority proposals from ownership is the implementation of a salary cap.  The owners feel that a cap is necessary – the salaries of teams in MLB  continue to diverge, and theoretically this causes a competitive imbalance.  If not for this year’s World Series participants, that theory would be widely accepted.  

Another part of the proposal is a salary floor to force the less wealthy teams to spend more on their players.  The players’ union is very much opposed to this proposal, as they feel it will limit their earning power.  The battle lines are drawn, and the battle projects to be fierce and lengthy.

Meanwhile, up in the front offices, there is money to be spent.  Free agent negotiations are in process now as teams hustle to acquire their target players while they can.  

But what if you are a team that is near or above the proposed cap?  What if the offers that are tendered and accepted during the off-season prior to CBA agreement cause your team to be above the cap?  To date, the only consequence has been a luxury tax, and the owners go into each signing with eyes wide open on what that cost will be.  

The consequences for being above the cap are unknown right now, subject to negotiation details we are not privy to.  If the end result is just for teams to face a luxury tax until they get under the cap, then it is business as usual.  If they are forced to invalidate or rework existing contracts, the impact could be very painful.  

What if you couldn't even offer competitive extensions to your own players?  I’m not even sure that outcome could be enforced without legal challenges.

What if the cap were established, and teams that were over it on the date of establishment had a year or two or three to get under it?  That seems practical, but it would allow competitive advantage to extend beyond its intended expiration date.  Some teams could “game” that solution by splurging now on free agent contracts and driving their near term salaries well above the cap, knowing that they would have time to recover.  

I certainly don’t think the lower salaried teams would accept that approach without imposing stiffer penalties.  But that implies a three-way debate between players, high-end owners, and low-end owners.  What a mess!

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, there are five teams that are above the rumored $300M salary cap as of the end of 2026: The Dodgers ($432.8M), Mets ($359.4M), Yankees ($341.8M), Phillies ($322.2M), and Blue Jays ($317.2M).  With expiring contracts and before any additional signings, four of those teams could be under the $300M figure for the 2027 season.  The Dodgers, even with all their deferred money, would still be over at an estimated $388.4M.

What would you do if you were Stearns/Cohen?  Would you spend big right now on players like Skubal and King and let the chips fall where they may?  Or would you begin positioning for a future that is going to be dominated by teams with the best development systems and more players with controllable salaries?  

Choose wisely, because the impact of decisions made now may be with you for years.


Reese Kaplan -- Players to Protect During the MLB Rule V Draft


For the start of this week it would be a good time to review the MLB Rule V Draft   It is a time when a club need to look through the depth of its minor league organization and who needs to remain a part of the long term plans.  It is held this week on Wednesday on the last day of the Winter Meetings.

There is a concern this year that there may not be a Rule V Draft because of the impending lockout expected to happen on December 1st.  If that occurs then players added to the 40-man roster would be ineligible to play minor league ball in the Spring. 

According to the MLB printed rules, "Players first signed at age 18 must be added to 40-man rosters within five seasons or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years or older have to be protected within four seasons. 

“Clubs pay $100,000 to select a player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $50,000."  

Assuming however that there will still need to be a traditional Rule V Draft then the Mets have a sizable laundry list of players who fit within the MLB regulations stated above.

Let’s have a look at the whole grouping of minor leaguers who might be protected by the Mets by moving them to the 40-man roster:

  • Pitchers: Ryan Ammons; Eli Ankeney; Justin Armbruester; Juan Arnaud; Brett Banks; Jose Chirinos; Irving Cota; Candido Cuevas; Felipe De La Cruz; Jorge De Leon; Joel Díaz; Zach Franklin; Saul Garcia; Gary Gill Hill; Cristofer Gomez; Noah Hall; Dakota Hawkins; Wyatt Hudepohl; Bryce Jenkins; Jonathan Jimenez; Gregori Louis; Ernesto Mercedes; Douglas Orellana; Cesar Rivera; Christian Rodriguez; Luis R. Rodriguez; Ben Simon; Austin Troesser; Jack Wenninger; Calvin Ziegler;
  • Catchers: Ronald Hernandez; Kevin Parada; Vincent Perozo; Chris Suero; Francisco Toledo;
  • Infielders: Ryan Clifford; Randy Guzman; Nick Lorusso; Jacob Reimer; Jefferson Rojas; D'Andre Smith; Marco Vargas;
  • Outfielders: Yohairo Cuevas; Estarling Mercado; Yonatan Henriquez

Here’s where David Stearns and his staff theoretically earn their money by making the best possible decisions on which prospects deserve to be elevated to the 40-man roster.

The most obvious one, of course, is infielder Jefferson Rojas who was raking in the minors since arriving to the Mets organization last August.  You need to keep your hands on your in-house number one player prospect.

After that you get the list of reasonably strong candidates would include Chris Suero and Marco Vargas.  Others on the list whose names jump out but whose metrics do not would include Ryan Clifford and Kevin Parada.  You could make a case for catching prospect Ronald Hernandez but since he’s not appeared above A ball it’s entirely reasonable to expose him as he’s not likely to make any club’s Major League roster for the full 2027 season.

On the pitching side of the ledger you have quite a few names but not very many that would likely tempt the other 29 ballclubs.  On the top would be newcomer Gary Gill Hill who struck out quite a few after arriving.  Then you’d have to consider protecting Jack Wenninger who still owns a minor league career ERA of 3.89.  After that there’s no one near enough to the majors and good enough to pique interest by other teams.

Next time around we’ll take a look at another aspect of the 40-man roster.  The deadline for cuts is November 17th and the Mets have quite a few choices that need to be made.  Depending on how many players the Mets want added to it will dictate how many must be removed.

11/8/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP Jack Wenninger

 


MACK – Let’s Revisit - RHSP Jack Wenninger


Jack Wenninger is a 24-year-old right-handed starting pitcher in the New York Mets’ system (born March 14, 2002, in Barrington, Illinois). He’s 6’4”, 210 lbs, bats left/throws right.

The Mets selected him in the 6th round (186th overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft out of the University of Illinois (after transferring from Murray State) and signed him for $225,000 (below slot). 

He ranks as the Mets’ No. 9 prospect per MLB Pipeline (rankings have varied between roughly No. 4–11 depending on the source and timing in 2026). He’s viewed as a potential mid-rotation or No. 4/5 starter with strong makeup, athleticism, and a workhorse profile.
Career Path and Stats
  • 2023: Limited pro debut (brief time in complex and Low-A).
  • 2024: Combined 4.30 ERA, 115 IP, 140 K across Low-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn (second-most strikeouts in the Mets system).
  • 2025: Breakout at Double-A Binghamton — 12-6, 2.92 ERA, 135.2 IP, 147 K, 1.15 WHIP in 26 starts. Eastern League Postseason All-Star. Strong underlying metrics (good K rate, solid control).
  • 2026: AAA/Syracuse - 26-G, 22-ST, 5-8, 4.54, 1.46, 115.0-IP, 40-BB, 16-WP, 140-K
He’s known for durability (high innings totals relative to other Mets prospects) and has shown the ability to miss bats while limiting hard contact at times. He could be in line for a September call-up or a look in 2027 depending on big-league needs.Repertoire / Pitch ArsenalWenninger throws from a high three-quarters/high arm slot with a loose, repeatable delivery, good extension from his frame, and solid athleticism. Velocity has ticked up with pro development and strength work (previously more low-to-mid 90s).  Key pitches (approximate velocities and characteristics based on scouting reports and tracking data):

  • Four-seam fastball (55 grade): Sits 93–96 mph (has touched upper 90s / occasional 97–98), with solid ride/induced vertical break (around 17+ inches at times). Used up in the zone; pairs well with the splitter for tunneling. Usage often ~28–34%.
  • Splitter / split-change (65 grade, best pitch): Mid-80s (roughly 82–85 mph), low-spin, heavy downward dive/fade. Excellent tunneling off the fastball; generates high whiff rates (often 40%+) vs. both lefties and righties. Primary put-away and equalizer that has driven reverse or neutral splits historically. Usage commonly 20–30%+.
  • Slider (50 grade): Mid-80s (around 84–86 mph) with snappy two-plane/gyro break and depth. Reliable secondary; preferred over the curve.
  • Sweeper: Sometimes mixed in (lower 80s range) for additional glove-side break; usage varies.
  • Sinker / two-seam: Mid-90s range, used more vs. righties for armside run/groundballs; helps diversify the fastball look.
  • Curveball (40 grade): Softer (roughly 79–83 mph), more of a change-of-pace or get-me-over offering with less usage.
He mixes the full arsenal effectively rather than relying on pure velocity, emphasizing command, sequencing, and the fastball-splitter combination. Control is average (around 50 grade); walk rates have been manageable at lower levels but rose to an excessive 68 (plus 9 hit batsmen) in 115 innings at Triple-A in 2026. 

The Mets’ pitching development has helped refine secondaries (e.g., tightening the slider, adding/using the sinker more). 

Overall

 He is a solid developmental success story as a mid-round college arm whose stuff and results have improved steadily. His ceiling is as a reliable starter if the command holds and the secondary pitches continue to play at the major-league level. 

He finished 2026 weakly. After allowing just 15 earned runs over his first 50 innings, he surrendered a bloated 43 earned runs and 12 HRs over his final 65 innings from early June forward, so he has to substantially improve that production drop off in 2027.





MACK - Three more possibilities for Mets first three picks

 


MACK – Three more possibilities for Mets first three picks

 

Derrick Pitts – OF - Cincinnati

21/years old – 6-2/200 - RHH

2026/Cincy – 231-AB, 61-K, 6-HR, 42-RBI, 17-SB, 4-A, 30-BB, .329/.423/.459/.882

All-time hits leader at Christian Brothers HS.

Offense wise, his bat has grown over his college career, but it took off when he played for the USA Collegiate National Team. Hit .500 while playing for them in Taiwan. Solid bat-to-ball skills, but currently only fringe-average game power. Doesn’t project any higher either. What he does in 2026 means a lot for when a team selects him.

Defense wise, one of the top defensive outfielders in the draft. Has exceptional range. Already has plus tools in speed, arm strength, and glove. High energy. Potential Gold Glove candidate.

Me?

First… small school means limited exposure to college’s elite pitchers. If he has limited power now against secondary pitching, it might not exist at all against teams in conferences like the SEC.

Secondly, I was surprised Pitts didn’t enter the portal and grade up to a bigger school for his junior year.

I might take a chance on his, but not with my first three picks.

 

Sebastian Wilson – OF – IMG Academy

18/years old – 6-0/195 – LHH

Instagram - @sushi.wilson31

X - @SushiWilson2027

Perfect Game grade - 10

One of the top high school bats in the draft.

Offense wise, utilizes an early toe-tap to load. Shifts weight onto back foot and unloads. Loud contact. Does have some swing-and-miss issues, but has a strong ability to fend off pitches and work deep into counts. Gets down the line quickly. 100+ mph exit velocities. 6.3-6.5 range speed.

Defense wise, ‘Sushi’ owns plus arm strength in the outfield. Also, possesses + run times out there. Scouts project him to the corners. Low-90s mph throws from the outfield.

Me?

Interesting.

He could be a great 3rd round pick, if he is still around. My first two picks are too valuable to risk drafting a high schooler.

 

Will Sanford – RHP - Oregon

21/years old – 6-0/200

2026/Oregon – 17-ST, 9-2, 3.74, 1.22, 84.1-IP, 46-BB, 126-K

Repertoire –

Fastball – 91-94 (96) – high spin and ride/carry. Plays heavy and jumps on batters, especially up in the zone. Deceptive delivery. Attacks hitter with this pitch. Upwards of 20 inches of induced vertical break with a flat approach angle at the top of the zone.

Curveball – 75-79 – 12-6 with depth and high spin (2,900 rpm). Best secondary pitch. Creates big differential against his fastball. A bigger shape with big spin rates and two-plane break. It can be an inconsistent offering at times, one that most stuff models won't fall in love with because of the lack of velocity but it still flashes above-average.

Slider – 83-85 – sharper breaking action. Continuing to refine.

Kick Change – developing this off-season.

           

Sturdy six-foot frame with some of the most metrically appealing stuff in the 2027 class. Strong arm speed. Geta down the mound well. Generates above-average extension. Has struggled with walks. Needs to continue to refine secondaries.

Me?

Another State of Oregon prospect to consider.

I am going to follow this guy in his 2026 season and see how he refines his secondaries. If he does, I would consider him in the second or third round.


Tom Brennan - Ten Mets Prospects Who Comprise My Top 31-40; 2027 MLB Team Rankings Right Now


Ten Mets Prospects Left Out Of My Top 30

Somebody’s Gotta Fill Out the 31-40. Here Are Mine.


I don’t just go along to get along when it comes to ranking prospects.

So, the late season Top 30 on the Mets website had several prospects that I excluded from my top 30. Several of the following were Mets top 30 prospects but are in my 31-40:


31. Chris Suero

He does many things above average. Speed, multi-positional.

But after playing a sizable amount of games in AA in 2025, he repeated AA in 2026, and in doing so, hit just .201 in 114 games with a high 145 Ks in his 5th pro season. I can’t soft-pedal that level of underperformance.

Had he put up those numbers in AAA, instead of AA, he’d have been in my top 30.  But his .201, and 1.3 Ks per game happened in a AA repeat. Not acceptable, even with 80 walks. 

If you only hit like that, major league pitchers won’t be giving you nearly as many free passes, if you get that far.

Simple: 

He has gotta hit a lot better and fan a lot less. Simple, but not simple.

No matter what, put him in AAA in 2027. Sink or swim. Just 23 next season.


32. Corey Collins

Most probably should be ranked HIGHER. The lefty slugger hit .238 and fanned 124 time in 111 games, not terrible, not great, but a lot of that has to do with his assiduously working out free passes. Collins got on base NINETY TIMES via walks and HBPs, giving him a fine .387 OBP. Over 162 games at that rate, he’d walk or get HBP ONE HUNDRED THIRTY ONE TIMES! Wow!

. 270/.396/.475 in the second half in a statistically significant 62 games..

Future Mets’ 1B? Possibly. He also plays LF.

Former 6th rounder in 2024, and still just 24 in 2026 (just turned 25).

2027 will be his year to bust out. He hit a respectable  .250 in 43 AA games in the second half, so he should get a lot of AAA time in 2027. 

He needs to hit better and with more power, in power-happy AAA, to really enter the MLB conversation.

He was successful stealing 75% of the time in 2026. 3 out of 4, so speed is not his game.


33. Randy Guzman 

I very much like him, and I’d have had him well up in my top 30, but injuries have limited this 21 year old slugging righty outfielder/1B. 

How much so? 

A mere 168 games over the past THREE YEARS. 

That is roughly the equivalent of one Alonso season. Durability counts. 

He has seemingly been brittle. He ended the season on the 60 day IL.

When he plays, though, he shows he is dangerous with the stick: 

His last two seasons, spanning just 147 games, 136 Ks, 34 doubles, 4 triples, 23 HRs, 106 RBIs. .291/.375/.512. Impressive, right? But, keep in mind, no time in AA yet. However…

Do THAT over a full, healthy season in 2027 and he has great potential.  

He hasn’t been a base stealer at all. Perhaps he is too honest to steal.

If Guzman isn’t durable? 

I would perhaps swap in 21 year old switch hitter Yonatan Henriquez here. He had an utterly brutal first half of 2026, hitting .154 and fanning 59 times in 39 games. What is in the water in Brooklyn? Toxic.

But, his second half of 59 games was SO much better: 

.267/.321/.475, with just 51 Ks. Of course, Brooklyn’s ultra-pitcher park stymied Yonatan to .189 at home, but .257 on the road. How would he have hit in a legitimate park?

He stole 27 bags, unlike Guzman, and adamantly refused to return any of them. 

Get YH out of Brooklyn purgatory into Binghamton heaven next season.


34. Kevin Parada 

.251/.335/.367 for the season after a miserable 12 for 73 start. Not superstar numbers but more competent ones. Still, only 38 RBIs in 356 PAs. And .220 with no HRs in 91 at bats with RISP. 

Hit .307 in 30 AAA games. A hopeful sign. KP is an enigma. Can he finally bust out in 2027?


35. Irving Cota 

Cota is a righty 22 year old, listed at 6’5”, 175. 

Irving Cota missed 3 months in 2026, but pitched to a 2.30 ERA in limited action. Through October 17 in Arizona Fall Ball , he was cooking: 

7.2 IP, one hit allowed, 12 Ks. WHAT?? Nice! 

I saw this in a recent MLB post related to Arizona Fall ball by Ben Weinrib about Cota:

 The man affectionately known as "Coffee" -- because he’s always carrying around the beverage -- has provided an energy boost to the Surprise Saguaros pitching staff. Through three Fall League outings, he has given up just one hit and he hasn't given up a run since his first frame. His latest outing was his finest yet: nine up, nine down with five strikeouts. 


The 6-foot-5 righty averaged 93 mph on his sinker and picked up six whiffs on his changeup and curveball (on seven swings). He's tied for second on the circuit with 12 K's.


Back to me: Oddly, in 31 minor league IP in 2026, he fanned just 21.

Stay healthy, and show us what you’ve got in 2027. Get those innings UP!


Remember: Pitchers whose arms don’t fall off eventually get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.


36. Daiverson Gutierrez

Hit poorly in 2026 (.198 in Brooklyn). Gotta hit better. Probably will. Why? Still only 21 for the upcoming 2027 season. Do more, and I will write more.


37. Brendan Girton

He had a truly lousy year, 1-4, 6.72 in AA, and 57 walks in 83 IP, but in a mid-October AFL game, he fanned the side with mostly fastballs, all at 95-97 MPH. So, that really solid velocity gives me real hope for him, and a sense he just had a bad season. 10th rounder in 2024, he had a 3.10 ERA in 2025. He is 25 next season, so it is giddyup time. I can see Brendan becoming a bullpen guy for the Mets at some point. Decent in the AFL.


38. Daviel Hurtado

The 21 y/o lefty put up very nice numbers, but pitched mostly in optical illusion Brooklyn. His home ERA in the pitchers’ paradise was 2.36, but was 3.57 on the road. I probably have him way too low, but let’s see how he does in Binghamton in AA first in 2027. 

Impeccable control, a rarity these days. 

Future lefty Mets reliever? Could certainly be by 2028.


39. Will Watson

I will not put a talented pitcher who somehow went 0-7, 7.05 in limited innings in 2026 in my top 30. Nope. If he pitches like that again in 2027, Will Watson agrees to change his name to Won’t Watson. Don’t do it. I like Will better.


40. Ryan Lambert

A brutal 2026 season…but in Arizona, through November 2, he threw 6 hitless relief innings and fanned 10. BREAKTHROUGH!

So, he remains in my list at # 40. But if Arizona performance is indicative, he should have been top 30.


Next up: My 41-50 dudes.


Ranking all 30 MLB rosters as the offseason gets going


Mike Petriello, writing for MLB, power-ranked the top 6 teams, as of right now, thusly:

1) Dodgers (who else?)

2) Yankees (naturally)

3) Seattle!

4) Red Sox

5) Brewers - ouch!

6) METS! 

Which shows why the Mets lust after Skubal. 

Could adding him vault the Mets to # 1?

And, of course, where did the writer rank Atlanta and Philly? 

In a tie - for # 12. SWEET!