Tom Brennan - St Lucie Met Opener Tonight; Mets’ Team RISP

18 YEAR OLD UBER PROSPECT ELIAN PENA AT SS

 

Well, the Mets’ bats remained impotent yesterday. Seems they can’t hit in cold or warm weather. A 2-1, 11 inning loss, and a 3-3 record. Only Soto is raking. Don’t look to Ron Mauricio in AAA for help…he is 3-19, with a walk.

Moving on…

Tonight, St Lucie opens, while tomorrow, Binghamton and Brooklyn are scheduled for their openers.

For St Lucie tonight, lefty Nicolas Carreno gets the starting nod.  

He is just 19, and something tells me that if he is their OD starter, we should completely ignore his 2-8, 5.60 numbers in years 2023 thru 2025. He has fanned 94 in 72 innings. He has walked a lot of batters as a 16-18 year old, so we will see if that is rounding into form at age 19 in 2026. 

Lots of SLM pitchers I am unfamiliar with.  Two “names” are draftees Cam Tilly and Conner Ware as the most notable to me. Neither has thrown an official pro inning yet, so A ball, rather than starting in the lower FCL, is a good sign.

Most notable among the team’s hitters are uber dude Elian Peña and my guy Randy Guzman in the infield. 

Simon Juan gets another chance to prove he can be a prospect contender in 2026. We fervently hope that more than one Juan in this organization can hit.

Julio Zayas is one of the catchers who has shown hitting ability prior to 2026.

Check out the SLM roster news from MILB.com for more details:

St Lucie Mets Roster

This is going to be an interesting roster.

PLAY BALL!

METS’ TEAM RISP

The Mets sure hit very well in that season opener, huh?

In the last five games, three of which went extra innings, the Mets have scored 12 runs total. A sickly 2.4 RPG.

It’s only been six games so far, but including that first game, where they scored 11 runs, the Mets are hitting a ghastly .162 with runners in scoring position. Only Cincinnati is worse. 28 teams are better.

And, in 84 plate appearances with runners in scoring position so far, the Mets have just one home run, and just 19 RBIs.

The top 15 teams, comprising the top half of all teams, are hitting nearly .300 with runners in scoring position, So this is not a league-wide problem, nor is it a situation of MLB pitchers being ahead of hitters.

Memo to self: 

Keep reminding self that it’s only six games so far.

“It’s only six games, it’s only six games, it’s only six games.”

Ahh, I feel better now, don’t you?

Paul Articulates – Speaking with Rumble Ponies players: AJ Ewing

The Binghamton Rumble Ponies held their media day on Tuesday so I had the opportunity to speak with two of their top prospects.  Today's post is the first - AJ Ewing.

AJ Ewing was drafted out of high school by the Mets in 2023 as a fourth round pick.  Ewing very quickly proved his worth as he rapidly moved up in the organization during his first two years.  He spent the last 28 games of the 2025 season with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA) and helped the team win the Eastern League Championship.  

Across three teams last year, he slashed .315/.401/.429, including .339/.371/.430 at Binghamton.  As the Mets’ number 3 prospect, he saw time with the major league team this spring, batting .381 over 21 at-bats.  He also was invited to the Spring Breakout game where he went 1 for 3.  Here is his interview:

Q: How are you feeling being back this year?

Ewing: Spring was really fun, but I am excited to play some games that have more of an edge to it.

Q: You were able to see some very competitive games on your way through the system last year.  What did you learn from the experience last year and what are you looking to bring this year?

Ewing: Those competitive games are what this game is all about.  When the game is on the line and it is coming down to the wire -  I’m just really looking forward to getting going and playing games in that type of environment.

Q: What have you been working on this off-season?

Ewing: Working on my body.  Getting in better shape to become a stronger, more explosive athlete.  Working to get better at the things I do well - making contact and running fast.

Q: You had an awesome spring – showed what you can do at the very highest level.  This year you begin at AA because the organization is stacked with talent.  What is it like to be in such a competitive environment?

Ewing: It is a lot of fun – this is what the game is all about.  Me against the pitcher, our team against their team.  I live for it, honestly.

Q: Can you talk about your spring training?  Were there things you were working on that showed up in the games?

Ewing: I think spring training was a great experience for me.  A lot of stuff I worked on in the off-season kind of showed up – hitting the ball to the pull side a little more. I went through strength camp last year and my speed numbers are up a lot.

Q: You had 13 stolen bases in 2024, then last season you had 70.  What drove this change and led to your improvement?

Ewing: It was really all about confidence.  That’s the most important thing when it comes to stealing bases.  In my first year, I was a little nervous to take off, but last spring I made a more concerted effort to just go and it built my confidence to continue.

Q: Having played with the major league team in spring training in front of bigger crowds and a TV audience, what did you learn there?  How did you learn to deal with all the noise out there?  Was there any particular player that provided good advice or took you under his wing?

Ewing: I think it is impossible to block out all the noise – you are always going to hear a little bit of it.  Honestly, though you just have to show up every day and play like you always have.  I like to talk to everyone there.  There are a lot of great personalities on the big-league team and I was able to get a little good information from everyone.

Q: You are a very versatile player who has played both outfield and infield positions.  Is there any position the organization is asking you to focus on this year?

Ewing: I’m just going to continue to try to be the best player I can be.  I will continue playing both infield and outfield this year.

I have spoken to many prospects over the years and they all possess a level of poise and self-confidence in their abilities that has led them to this level of performance.  What I see in AJ Ewing that sets him apart is this sense of competitiveness.  He wants to be in the heat of the game.  He strikes me as the guy who wants the bat in his hands with two outs in the bottom of the last inning or the guy who wants the ball hit to him when the game is on the line.  That could be the trait that makes him something special.

Alex Rubinson - Luis Robert Jr. Showing New York is not always a Pressure Cooker

New York is known as the sports media capital of the world. It is the ultimate pressure cooker in the United States. For better or worse, everything is bigger under the bright lines of New York. We have already seen the Mets biggest offseason signing, Bo Bichette, get booed three games into his tenure with the ball club. On shows across the country, many debate on whether athletes are equipped to handle the big market and how it doesn’t compare to any other market in the sports industry. 

Given all of this, it’s rare that New York can actually offer a sense of relief for a player or coach, but as we wrap up the first full week of the MLB season, that is exactly what might be transpiring for a certain player in Queens. 

From 2024-2025, outfielder Luis Robert Jr. hit .224 and .223 respectively with 14 homers in each season while playing for the Chicago White Sox. He failed to record a wins above replacement (WAR) of 3.0 in his previous two years combined. He tallied an average OPS+ of 87 in those seasons (100 is league average). The once promising five-tool prospect, who was expected to lead Chicago to the promise land for the next decade appeared to be a bust. As shown by his WAR numbers, his defense and baserunning left a lot to be desired in addition to his performance at the dish. 

Many tabbed Robert Jr. as a player who was obviously in need of a chance of scenery. Although moving onto any other organization could have come as a breath of fresh air, joining the bright lights of the big apple may have not been ideal for the centerfielder. Instead, joining the Mets might have been exactly what Robert Jr. needed. In his first week's worth of games to begin the season, Robert Jr. is hitting .316 with more walks than strikeouts. Of course, his performance has been capped off by his walkoff three-run homer on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

The stats are what’s most important and what any player will ultimately be judged by, but the biggest reason for optimism might have been what was happening between innings. After the final out was recorded in a frame, Robert Jr. appeared to pretend to race Juan Soto in from the outfield. The two weren’t going full speed by any stretch, but Robert Jr. seems to have found comfort in Queens. 

Through the first week of a season, stats are going to be abnormally high or low, but the way Robert Jr. has carried himself has been much different than what he had shown in Chicago. Winning will go a long way towards this, but it is still far from a guarantee. 

Robert Jr. is second on the team with an impressive .452 wOBA. It’s interesting to note that Francisco Alvarez (.498) is in the top seven percent in all of baseball in the same statistic. Baseball Savant has Robert Jr. in the 87th percentile in batting run value in the early going. Fans are finally getting to see the raw athleticism that Robert Jr. put on display when he was making his way through the minor leagues and even when he initially got to the show. 

Robert Jr. has also shown the defender he is more than capable of being. His 91st percentile in arm value is what will jump out immediately, but in 2025, he ranked in the 93rd percentile with seven outs above average (OAA), which will be even more valuable to the Mets for the 2026 season. OAA measures an outfielder’s range. In left field, Soto has shown who is in as a defender, so Robert Jr. being able to cover more ground and take the pressure off of Soto should help both Soto’s own defensive metrics along with the entire team’s. 

Last season, Robert Jr.’s strikeout rate (26%) nearly tripled his walk rate (just above nine percent). It’s far too early to tell if those numbers have truly changed for the better, but it has to be encouraging that he has only struck out three times to begin the season (to go along with his five walks). I don’t expect Robert Jr. to end the year with more walks than strikeouts, but if he can close the gap between the two, that will naturally raise his floor. 

If Robert Jr. finds himself on base at a higher clip, that will allow him to show off his athleticism more and be a versatile part of the Mets lineup. Having his 94th percentile sprint speed on the bases will apply more pressure to opposing pitchers and defenses. 

Robert Jr. has always had a sky-high ceiling. In 2023, he was named an All-Star and recorded a five-win season. He possessed an OPS+ of 110 or higher from 2021-2023. There is a reason the White Sox inked him to a long-term contract all the way back in 2021. With Chicago being historically bad the last few seasons, it can be easy for players to not feel as motivated even if it is the big leagues. Given Robert Jr.’s peak, there seemed to be a dark cloud hovering over him and the White Sox franchise.

Coming over to Queens has not only given the five-tool player a fresh start, but he no longer is the face of the franchise whose image will be used to sell tickets. Availability remains a major question mark, as Robert Jr. has played in more than 110 contests just once in his career. Carlos Mendoza and company need to prepare for Robert Jr. to miss time based on his track record, but in the meantime, with Robert Jr. healthy and patrolling centerfield, New York doesn’t appear to be the usual pressure cooker it’s reputation suggests, but instead, a sunny new beginning and a sigh of relief.

 

Paul Articulates – Speaking with the Rumble Ponies’ new manager

The Binghamton Rumble Ponies held their media day on Tuesday so I had the opportunity to speak with their new manager Michael Collins and two of their top prospects.

Michael Collins came to the Mets this season after spending the past eight seasons in the Houston Astros organization.  He is a former player, having spent time in both Australian baseball and in the US with the Padres.  His most recent experience was as the catching coach for the Houston Astros. 

He has a diverse coaching background which includes managing in the minor leagues and coaching the Australian WBC team in three different tournaments including the recently completed 2026 event.  

Collins spent a few weeks with the Mets in St. Lucie during spring training and a few weeks with the WBC team.  He arrived in Binghamton just a few days ago filled with enthusiasm to start the season.  Here is his interview:

Q: Coming from another top development organization (Astros), what are your first impressions of the Mets’ organization?

Collins: My first impression is that this is an incredible opportunity coming in.  I saw the success they had as an organization last year. I am excited to join.  It is very much a player-first mentality.  We are trying to develop them as individuals as well as improving them as players.  I am excited to be part of that.

Q: As a follow-up, the Mets have some very impressive technology in St. Lucie.  Have they installed anything similar here in Binghamton?

Collins: Yes.  We have quite a lot of technology available here as well.  Just about everything they have in Florida is available here though maybe not as visible.  They are constantly monitoring to help the players in any way possible.

Q: What should the people from Binghamton know about you?

Collins: One thing you should know about me is I don’t like the cold. [laughter] Born and raised in Austrailia, in the US for the last 26 years.

Q: Having seen what this team has accomplished in the last couple of years, what’s your mindset as you begin this year with a new team?

Collins: Excited!  There is a great bunch of players here on a team that had incredible success last year.  They finished off last year winning a championship, so hopefully we can get off to a good start again this year.

Q: What similarities or differences do you bring to this organization?

Collins: I don’t see too many differences, so let’s speak about the similarities.  One thing I truly believe is that the game is about the players and we try to put their best interests first and hopefully watch their careers take off.

Q: What can you tell us about the team’s approach this year?

Collins: An exciting team with some opportunities to steal some bases and also enough power to drive the ball out of the ballpark.  It looks like a well rounded team with the opportunity to win in different ways.  It is important for these players to understand that at the major league level there are lots of different ways to win a ball game.

Q: Although the roster hasn’t yet been released, it looks like there are a lot of return players and veterans that will be here judging from who is on the Syracuse roster.

Collins: Ultimately, good organizations have good players that get held back a bit, but everywhere you play there is an opportunity to showcase your skill set.

Q: Your roster should have strong starting pitching, include four of the top 20 prospects in the Mets organization right now.  Have you decided on a rotation yet and can you share it?

Collins: I can’t share it at this time.  I have not yet gotten confirmation as there are still players arriving here.  We will have to make sure everyone is here and healthy to go.  I’m not trying to hide anything, but we don’t want to jump past the release.  With all this talent, it is a very good problem to have.

My first impressions of Michael Collins are that he is very personable, very confident, and extremely enthusiastic about managing within the Mets' organization.  He has a player-first mindset, which is critical in building the relationships needed to teach young prospects how to best position themselves for success in professional baseball.  He should be a great fit for this team.

RVH: The Rotation’s First Turn – Establishing the 2026 Baseline

 

It is far too early in a 162-game season to draw definitive conclusions or make sweeping assertions about the 2026 Mets. However, one cycle through the starting rotation provides us with a critical first "peek" at the data.

After a season defined by rotation volatility, the objective for 2026 is simple: Structural Stability. We aren't looking for perfection; we are looking for a durable floor. To track this, we will be observing three primary indicators over the course of the season:

1. Pitches Per Out (PPO): A measure of economy (Benchmark: ~5.25).

2. WHIP (Traffic Control): Managing the stress on the defense.

3. GO/FO Ratio: Utilizing ground balls to induce double plays and neutralize power.

I. The First Cycle: Factual Performance (March 26–31)

Through five games, the rotation has achieved its primary directive: Length. Every starter has reached the five-inning mark, and the staff is currently averaging 5.21 PPO (roughly 15.6 pitches per inning).

Mets Rotation Tracker: The First Turn (Games 1–5)

The staff finished the first cycle with a collective 10.67 K/9 and a 3.33 ERA.

Date	Starter	Outcome	IP	BB	K	K/9	H	ER	WHIP	ERA	P/O	OPS	GO/FO
3/26	Peralta	W, 11–7	5.0	0	7	12.60	6	4	1.20	7.20	5.33	.667	3/5
3/28	Peterson	W, 4–2	5.1	2	3	5.06	6	0	1.50	0.00	4.75	.605	9/4
3/29	McLean	L, 3–4	5.0	2	8	14.40	4	2	1.20	3.60	5.60	.549	3/4
3/30	Holmes	W, 4–2	5.2	3	5	7.94	4	2	1.24	3.18	5.29	.625	10/2
3/31	Senga	L, 3–0	6.0	3	9	13.50	4	2	1.17	3.00	5.11	.507	4/5
TOT	Totals	3–2	27.0	10	32	10.67	24	10	1.26	3.33	5.21	.591	29/20

II. Initial Observations

• Inning Durability: The rotation’s ability to provide 27.0 innings in five games is a massive improvement over the early-season volatility of 2025. This 5.4-inning-per-start average effectively shields the bullpen.
  
  

• The "Precision" vs. "Power" Balance: David Peterson and Clay Holmes are providing the efficiency floor, combining for 17 ground-ball outs and three double plays. Conversely, Kodai Senga, Freddy Peralta, and Nolan McLean provide the swing-and-miss capacity, totaling 24 strikeouts in 16 innings.
  
  

• The Senga Standard: Tonight in St. Louis, Senga provided the most complete outing of the turn. By navigating 6.0 innings on 92 pitches with a .507 Opponent OPS, he demonstrated that "power" tier pitching can also be economical (5.11 PPO).

III. The Longitudinal View

We are now entering the phase of observation. We will watch for "drift"—will Peterson’s high-traffic OBP start to leak runs, or will the groundball rate keep the floor intact? Does Peralta’s 7.20 ERA begin to descend toward his respectable 1.20 WHIP?

One turn is just a baseline. We will continue to track these factual pillars as the weather warms and the season progresses. The goal is simple: Professional consistency that allows the lineup the range to win competitive games.

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Sourcing Reference

• Game 1 (Peralta): MLB Official Box Score (3/26/26).
• Game 2 (Peterson): MLB Official Box Score (3/28/26).
• Game 3 (McLean): MLB Official Box Score (3/29/26).
• Game 4 (Holmes): AP/CBS Sports Recap: "Bichette helps Mets to 4-2 victory" (3/30/26).
• Game 5 (Senga): MLB Gameday Live Feed – 6.0 IP Split (3/31/26).

• Game 5 (Senga): MLB Gameday Live Feed – 6.0 IP Split (3/31/26).