10/2/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit -RHSP - Jose Chirinos

 


 MACK – Let’s Revisit -SP - Jose Chirinos


Jose Javier Chirinos is a right-handed starting pitcher in the New York Mets’ minor league system, currently with the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones (as of mid-to-late 2026). Background and Profile
  • Born: October 16, 2004, in Los Puertos de Altagracia, Venezuela (age 21 in 2026).
  • Physical: 6'3", 170 lbs; bats/throws R/R. He has a lanky frame with a low-effort, whippy, low-three-quarters arm slot (sometimes noted for a loose resemblance to Jacob deGrom in delivery/appearance, though the stuff comparison does not hold).
  • Signed: January 15, 2022, by the Mets for a modest $10,000 bonus out of Venezuela. He has steadily progressed from the Dominican Summer League through the complex and full-season levels.
  • Prospect status: Ranked as the Mets’ No. 25 prospect by MLB Pipeline in 2026. 
  • Scouting grades (2026): Fastball 50, Slider 55, Changeup 45, Cutter 50, Control 45, Overall 40. 
  • He has a deep enough mix to project as a potential backend starter, though command/control remains a work in progress and he faces Rule 5 eligibility soon.
Career Path and PerformanceChirinos debuted in the DSL in 2022–2023 (ERAs around 4.6–4.9 with improving strikeouts). He reached stateside ball in 2024 (FCL and a brief St. Lucie appearance) with higher ERAs, then improved markedly in 2025 (combined ~3.01 ERA across FCL and Single-A St. Lucie, with solid K rates).

In 2026:

  • Strong start at Single-A St. Lucie: 9-G, 7-ST, 3-1, 2.36, 1.04, 42-IP, 48-K, 10-BB

  • High-A Brooklyn: 15-ST, 1-7, 4.00, 1.39, 72-IP, 77-K, 32-BB
He has earned recognition such as a DSL Mid-Season All-Star (2023) and occasional strong starts highlighted by Mets player development (e.g., high-K outings with low ERAs early in 2026). Pitch RepertoireChirinos throws a four-pitch mix (sometimes described with variations or an occasional curve), generally featuring:

  • Fastball (primarily two-seam/sinker, with some four-seam usage): Sits 92–95 mph (averages around 93 in recent looks), with armside run. Above-average extension helps it play up. Used roughly ~50% or as a primary pitch; more of a setup offering than a pure swing-and-miss pitch due to movement profile. Grades around average (50).
  • Cutter: 85–88 mph (mid-to-high 80s). Increased usage in 2026; gets a lot of strikes. Limited pure movement but effective when tunneled with the fastball or slider. Grades around 50.
  • Slider: Best secondary and main swing-and-miss pitch (grade 55). High-70s to low-80s, with slurvy action; he has variations including a shorter 79–81 mph version and a larger upper-70s sweeper. Good horizontal/vertical break and generates healthy whiffs, though it may need tightening against higher-level hitters.
  • Changeup: 83–86 mph (high-70s to high-80s range noted in some reports). Armside fade/run; less consistent and doesn’t always fool lefties as effectively as desired (grade 45). Velocity band can be wider than ideal.
He mixes the secondaries relatively evenly depending on feel that day, with the slider as the primary put-away pitch. Stuff metrics (e.g., from tracking sites) have generally graded near average overall. Command has improved at times (notably lower walk rates early in 2026 at Single-A) but tends to settle in the 10%+ range against better competition. 

Overall, Chirinos is a developing, projectable right-hander with a workable arsenal and improving results as he moves up. His success hinges on refining command and consistency with the secondaries against more advanced hitters. 



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Reese Kaplan -- Former NY Mets Starting Pitchers Who are FAs


One of the ongoing debates among Mets fans is the pressure of performing in New York City and the experience of various players available in free agency who either flourished or foundered at Citifield.  

With POBO David Stearns declaring the need to reinforce the starting rotation as priority number one for the theoretically existing 2027 season 

it is interesting to note that in free agency a baker’s dozen of former Mets hurlers are available to the highest bidder.  Some could make sense.  Others might not.


Former Mets Starting Pitchers Up for Bid

  • 38 year old Chris Bassitt had a very productive single season for the Mets back in 2022 when he went 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA.  That level of mid rotation effectiveness led to his free agent departure at year’s end.  He had a similar first year in Toronto bt it’s been mostly downhill as he enters the twilight of his playing career.  During 2026 he went 9-5 with a 4.59 ERA for the Orioles, so it’s not as if he would cost very much but he may not be a proper fit anymore. 
  • Paul Blackburn was not nearly as well regarded while a member of the team.  At age 33 he’s been a space filler as a starting pitcher.  He owns a ten-year losing record and a career ERA of 4.46.  Last season the Yankees converted him to full time reliever and he flourished.  For the season over 62 games he went 7-2 with a microscopic 1.66 ERA.  Some teams might feel his conversion to bullpen work was what he needed while others would look at the whole ledger of mediocrity and not want to gamble that one good year made up for nine terrible ones.  The memories are way too negative for the Mets to place him on their radar.
  • Injury plagued Griffin Canning was surprisingly decent when no one had any real knowledge of nor confidence in him when Stearns acquired him for part of the 2025 season.  His contract has a $5 million mutual option at year’s end and after a Padres 5-9 season with an ERA of 5.59 it’s unlikely he will be brought back.  He’s not a true difference maker and unless it was bargain hunting as a primary motivation he doesn’t seem to be a good fit either.
  • Now 40 year old Carlos Carrasco hasn’t had an ERA below 5.64 in the three years since hitting the road.  No thanks.
  • Clay Holmes was something of a found miracle when the Mets converted him from reliever to starter.  His injuries interrupted this transition but the numbers certainly don’t lie.  For the Mets he delivered a 3.53 ERA in 2025 and was at just 2.39 when he was dealt away in the trade deadline housecleaning.  His option for 2027 would be $12 million, a full million below his current salary.  He’s likely not going to take that paycheck and will again opt to test free agency.  Keep your interest in this guy active.
  • Frankie Montas is now 34.  He will spend his age 35 season somewhere other than Citifield. 
  • A VERY interesting and hard to sell option for next season would be a reunion with former Met and former Brewer Freddy Peralta fresh off his September Pitcher of the Month award for the Rays. Peralta likely wouldn’t want to come back to the Mets any more than Mets fans would welcome him with open arms, but he is one of the better pitchers available for people with deep pockets.   
  • A lot of people kept waiting for southpaw David Peterson to blossom into a top flight pitcher.  Finally in his walk year he was the first kicked out of the 2026 Mets clubhouse.  He finished his season with a 4.79 ERA though most of the suffering was felt by Mets fans.  For the Cubs his ERA dropped to 3.70.  He’s available to a high bidder.  We hope David Stearns has blocked his agent’s number.
  • Lefty Jose Quintana has turned in consecutive season ERAs of 3.96 and 5.44 for the Cubs and Rockies respectively.  Turning 38 next year his best days are behind him and he shouldn’t be a real consideration either. 
  • Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer is available to the highest bidder but already at age 42 he’s not going to get a megabucks annual rate nor will it be for more than a year or two.  His 2026 numbers were awful and it’s been that way for the past few years.  He’s likely a fifth starter at best at this point in his long career. No thanks.
  • Former Met and Yankee Luis Severino has a $22 million player option for his age 34 season.  Given his two consecutive years of an ERA well north of 4.00 you can bet he’s exercising that option rather than test free agency for less money.
  • Justin Verlander has announced probable retirement.  He’s had a great career but not a viable option for the Mets. 
  • Taijuan Walker is going to be 35 and fighting for a job somewhere other than in Queens.

 

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MACK - Chain Position Analysis - First Base

 


Okay... so much for catcher.

We move on to a position we didn't have to worry about for years... first base.

We have RED prospects, BLUE prospects, and ALMOST prospects.

Here we go...

RED Prospect - 

AAA/Syracuse Billy Amick (23) - a big-time surprise. His combined 38-HR and 108-RBI is large. His 161-K in 450-AB is acceptable. And his 62-BB are just icing. It seems to me that the furthest he is away from Queens in the break, and yet, the break may be the start of the MLB season.

BLUE Prospect - 

MLB - Jared Young (31) - this is your first base caretaker until Amick is deemed ready. He had 308-AB for the Mets in 2026, hitting a respectable .266, with 9-HR. He struck out only 63 time, in 308 at-bats. And I don't remember him ever embarrassing himself like others that played first this past season. He probably has no future past an Amick promotion, unless he hits like hell, forcing Amick into a DH role he has one minor league option left).

AAA Nick Lorusso (26) - Lorusso's claim to fame in 2026 was his 19-Hr for AA/Binghamton. Add to that the two he hit for AAA/Syracuse and his combined power stats were 22-HR, 65-RBI, .459-slug% and .777-OPS. The problem is there wasn't much else past these numbers. 

Lorusso needs a full season in the Cuse'. Right now, he just consistently hits all pitcher, left or right, below .250.

AA Corey Collins (24) - Collins is interesting. First, and most important, he is not a complete player yet. He's still finding his way. First... the good... 18 home runs (10 at the AA level) ... 61-RBI... AA-BA: .250... the bad? Tailed off in last 28 days (.184) ... questionable splits... against RHP: 14-HR but .234. LHP: only 4-HR but .253-BA. 

He only had 136-AA in Binghamton, so there is a lot to said to start him back up there in the spring. Yeah, Amick should start in Syracuse, and the next guy needs to play more in Brooklyn, leaving Lorusso as the odd guy out.  

A+ Randy Guzman - (21) - Guzman made a splash this past season at A/St. Lucie (208-AB, 66-K, 12-HR, 41-RBI, 28-BB, .274/.377/.514/.891, but took off after being promoted to A+ Brooklyn (28-AB, 7-K, 1-HR, 6-RBI, .393/.438/.536/.973. As expected, his HR/AB% went down at Coney. He missed a lot of games due to injury.

The bottom line here is 28 at-bats does not warrant a promotion to AA/Binghamton. And Collins is in the way anyway. Bring him back next to that roller coaster.

DSL - Jonnhan Sanchez - (19) - I'm not used to the Mets having decent bats at the DSL level... heck, I'm not used to decent pitching either. Sanchez is off to a great start: 152-AB, 3-HR, 38-RBI, 10-doubles, .309/.459/.447/.907. Splits: last 90: .255. home: .377, away: .253, August: .160. I definitely will work on a visa here and get him to Florida as soon as I can to get in the lab.


ALMOST prospect -

AAA Ryan Clifford - (23) - my, how the mighty has fallen.
 
At last year around now, we were critical of the amount of strikeouts he had and his .237 batting average; however, we were comforted with his 23-HR, 93-RBI output. This year, still a shitey number of K's but his homers have fallen to 18, his ribbys are a miserable 56, and his BA was a resounding .180. Is he still an 'almost'? I really don't think so, but I have to respect that he has done better in the past. 

Amick has obviously passed him as the #1 candidate for not only- the next first baseman, but also possibly the designated hitter. Probably others have passed him as the 2nd and 3rd candidate at first. Still, I would like to hope he can return as a DH candidate in the future.

A+/Brooklyn - Cole Mathis - (23) - had 120 at-bats this past season at the A+ level: 3-HR, 24-RBI, .225-BA. Frankly, I'm not sure I have him as an almost prospect. The only place he has professionally hit decently so far is in the fall. I do like the name though, and I followed him for his for three years in the top party school in South Carolina. Must be that.

FCL Reed Stallman - (23) - Stallman is just gettin' going and, based on the fact he turns 24 in March, he must turn on the jets. He only has 56 professional at-bats under his belt and all of them have been at the FCL level. still, he hit .318 for Mississippi State last season and those 
56-AB produced a .250-BA. Obviously, start this off as St. Lucie's starting first baseman and let's see what we got here.

Mack's spin - The addition of Amick changed everything. 

First, Pete is gone. You have to get over that if you want to analyze the Mets future at this position. I get it. Having no Alonso is like a death in the family. Cremate the dude and move on. 

My guess, by opening day 2028, there will be no more chatter on Alonso. Until then, Young is good enough to hold down the fort until Billy is ready. 

Collins and Guzman are still developing. but offer possible future help here. It might not kill the Mets to hold onto Brett Baty until this position solidifies.


Rating - B-  

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10/1/26

MACK – Let’s Revisit - C - Julio Zayas

 


MACK – Let’s Revisit - C - Julio Zayas


Julio Jorge Zayas is a New York Mets minor-league prospect, primarily a catcher who has also played first base (and briefly pitched). Key Bio
  • Born: February 16, 2006, in Pimentel, Dominican Republic (age 20 as of 2026).
  • Bats/Throws: Right/Right.
  • Height/Weight: 5'11", 190 lbs.
  • Signed: January 15, 2023, by the Mets as an international free agent (minor-league contract).
Career Path and PositionsHe began in the Dominican Summer League (DSL Mets Orange) in 2023, then moved to the Florida Complex League (FCL Mets) in 2024–2025, and was assigned to the Single-A St. Lucie Mets (Florida State League) in April 2026. 

He is listed as a catcher but has significant time at first base in 2026 (and some earlier games at 1B and 3B). 

He has also appeared in a few games as a pitcher. Hitting Stats
  • 2023 (DSL, age 17): Strong debut — .307 AVG, .885 OPS, 7 HR, 43 RBI in 49 games. Named a DSL Mid-Season All-Star.
  • 2024 (FCL): .239 AVG, .721 OPS, 3 HR.
  • 2025 (FCL): .284 AVG, .769 OPS, strong on-base skills (.400 OBP).
  • 2026 (St. Lucie, Single-A): 357-AB, 107-K (!), 11-HR, 57-RBI, 54-BB, .238/.340/.367/.707
Advanced metrics from 2026 (partial sample) show average exit velocities and barrel rates relative to the level, with a roughly average overall offensive profile for Single-A (around average wRC+/TJBat+). Defensive NotesHe has primarily caught in the lower levels (with solid but not elite caught-stealing rates in available data) while seeing increased time at first base as he moved up. Fielding percentages have been generally solid.

Zayas is a low-level prospect still developing. He has shown power potential and on-base ability since his strong DSL debut, but he is not currently among the Mets’ top-ranked prospects and remains several steps from the majors. 



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RVH — Race for Six: The Final Board

 

The regular season is over.

The race is over.

And the Mets finished inside the six.

With Sunday's loss in Washington, New York finished 74–88 and locked in the fifth-best lottery odds for the 2027 Draft.

That's a meaningful reversal from where this series last stood. On September 10, the Mets were seventh among lottery-eligible clubs, with a 39.4% chance of a top-six pick. They went 6–10 the rest of the way, and the teams around them finally started winning.

Final result: fifth seed, 62.6% chance at a top-six selection.

The Final Lottery Board

Seed

Team

Top-six odds

1

Colorado

87.6%

2

Angels

87.6%

3

Athletics

87.6%

4

Kansas City

73.0%

5

Mets

62.6%

6

Cincinnati

51.2%

7

Detroit

39.2%

8

Seattle

28.7%

9

Washington

19.9%

San Francisco and Pittsburgh are ineligible for the lottery and can't pick better than 10th.

The Mets' Odds, Pick by Pick

Pick

Odds

No. 1

8.7%

No. 2

9.3%

No. 3

10.0%

No. 4

10.9%

No. 5

11.7%

No. 6

12.0%

Top six (total)

62.6%

Outside the top six

37.4%

Notice the shape.

The odds rise with each pick. The Mets' most likely lottery outcome is sixth, not first. That's how a fifth seed behaves: fewer chances at the first draw, but more chances as the higher seeds come off the board.

Remember the Distinction

A top-six pick isn't just a better pick.

It's a protected pick.

Under the current rules, the Mets' first selection drops 10 spots because they exceeded the second CBT threshold. A lottery pick from No. 1 through No. 6 is exempt. The Mets keep it, and the 10-spot penalty shifts to their second selection.

Miss the top six, and the math turns hard.

If the Mets fall out of the lottery, their natural slot is seventh through ninth, most likely seventh (21.2%). The penalty then pushes that pick down 10 spots, to roughly 17th through 19th.

We've seen this movie. This July, the Mets' first pick fell from No. 17 to No. 27.

So the lottery isn't picking between fifth and seventh.

It's picking between a top-six pick and a high-teens pick.

The Money Follows the Pick

The protection isn't just about who the Mets can draft.

It's about how much they can spend.

Every pick in the first 10 rounds carries an assigned slot value, and those values add up to a team's bonus pool. Here's what those slots were worth in 2026:

Pick

2026 slot value

No. 1

$11,350,600

No. 2

$10,507,000

No. 3

$9,740,100

No. 4

$8,988,400

No. 5

$8,336,500

No. 6

$7,746,100

No. 17

$4,868,600

No. 18

$4,695,500

No. 19

$4,530,500

That's a swing of roughly $3 million to $7 million in the draft budget.

And it isn't limited to one player. Teams at the top of the draft often sign their first pick below slot and use the savings to buy talent later in the class. A bigger pool means more flexibility across the whole draft, not just a better first name on the board.

The Mets know the other side of that. With their penalized pick at No. 27 this July, their bonus pool was $6.73 million, 28th of 30 teams.

Weighting the slot values by this year's lottery odds, the Mets' first pick is worth roughly $7.6 million in expected slot value, compared with about $4.8 million for a non-lottery pick.

That's the real stake of this series.

Not the talent gap between pick 6 and pick 17, which reasonable people can debate.

It's whether the Mets' first selection, and the budget attached to it, is protected from a structural penalty.

Now the Asterisk

Here's the problem with everything above.

It may all be moot.

The draft lottery, the CBT pick penalty, and the bonus pool system all come from the Collective Bargaining Agreement. That agreement expires December 1.

The lottery is scheduled for December.

That means every rule that produced this board is on the table in the next negotiation: the lottery itself, its weighting, the eligibility limits, the 10-spot penalty, and the slot values that set each team's budget. Owners and players could keep the system as it is. They could change the odds. They could change how penalty picks are protected. They could restructure bonus pools. They could scrap the lottery altogether.

And if there's a lockout, even the timing of the lottery becomes an open question.

The Mets did their part. They finished fifth.

What that finish is worth will be decided at the bargaining table, not on the field.

Closing the Series

When we started the Race for Six, the question was simple: could a lost season still produce a meaningful draft asset?

The answer turned out to be yes. But it was never really about losing.

The Mets played some of the best baseball in the sport after the deadline. They slid out of the race, then back into it. They finished with better than even odds of protecting their first pick, and the budget that comes with it.

That's the best version of a lost season: the kids developed, the team competed, and the draft position held.

Now the lottery gets to decide.

Or the new CBA does.

We'll see what gets negotiated...

Sources: MLB final standings; Tankathon penalty-adjusted 2027 lottery odds; MLB Pipeline 2026 slot values and bonus pools; MLB CBA/CBT rules.

Final qualification: Odds reflect Tankathon's penalty-adjusted table, which accounts for lottery-ineligible teams. The projected post-penalty range for a non-lottery Mets pick and the expected slot value are my estimates. Slot values shown are 2026 figures; 2027 values have not been set. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026, and the lottery, its odds, the CBT pick penalty, and the bonus pool system could all change under the next agreement.


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