Open Thread - Peralta traded to the Rays

 

It was just announced that Freddy Peralta has been dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays for minor-league outfielder Aidan Smith, infielder Emilien Pitre and right-handed pitcher Gary Gill Hill.

Your thoughts on the return?

SAVAGE VIEWS – STILL BREATHING

HERE I GO AGAIN!

It’s been a couple of months since my last post and I have a few thoughts I would like to share.

THE SEASON AS INTERPRETED BY RAY

Great Scott, If we can put all Bichette aside, the Mets went on a “spending Benge” during the offseason and only have Polanco, Peralta and Jr. Roberts to show for it. And let’s not forget Williams…moves that have us all feeling a bit Baty. Raley do you get so little for big bucks. At this stage we understand the need to McLean our Holmes to bring in prospects that will be Taylor made for our future. 

Mark my words, we need to do a better job of Vientos prospects than we have in the past. The next few days will be interesting as we Weaver our way through different scenarios. One positive is the expected moves will open up roster spots for Young players such as Morabito. You can bet your Alvarez that we are on the way to better things. 

After August 3^rd, the best we can hope for is to be a Thornton the sides of playoff contenders. Heyman, even well-known sports writers have little clue on ten ways to fix this team. Soto summarize, let me enjoy a Lindor milk chocolate bar and let others worry about making us competitive next year.

DEFENDING DAVID STEARNS

It seems that the majority of Mets fans would not be unhappy if Stearns was replaced. He was a well-regarded baseball executive when he was hired away from the Brewers. During his short tenure as POBO, he is doing the job he was hired to do. Some accomplishments:

·      Streamlined the front office to a more efficient operation

·      Improved the Scouting Department

·      Incorporated advanced technological systems including state of the arts pitching and batting labs

·      More attention being paid to player developmentThere have been missteps along the way including hiring of Carlos Mendoza as manager, signing Frankie Montas and dealing away some 20 prospects for questionable returns. The farm system has regressed this year but we understand that growth is not linear. My expectation is that the Mets will have a top-rated farm system next year as the team reaps the rewards of four consecutive quality drafts plus a handful of prospects acquired in trades. Pre-season we thought we had a playoff caliber team. No regrets about losing Nimmo and McNeil. In retrospect wish we had signed Alonso, although many of us balked at giving him 5 years.This year alone the team has five rookies performing at a high level. Next year we might see another two or three joining our team. And the future looks bright as lower level players mature over the next two to three years.

In my opinion Stearns is keeper and by this time next year many of those who want him replaced will be singing his praises. Don’t forget, if he is replaced it will result in setting back the timetable.

WAIT ‘TIL NEXT YEAR

It’s been proven time and time again that the key to a strong season is pitching and defense. The starting rotation looks strong with McLean and Scott maturing and hopefully Thornton earning a role. The question remains as to who will occupy the remaining two-three slots. The guess is Tong, perhaps Manaea and a free agent or acquisition in a trade. 

The outfield is set with Soto, Ewing and Benge. The catching combo of Alvarez / Torrens is as good as any and expect Lindor and Bichette to return to career norms. Clearly the first and third base positions need to be significantly upgraded. I should mention I believe both Ewing and Benge improve markedly in year two.

To count us out will be a mistake.

Ray

August 2, 2026

Tom Brennan - July Mets Minors Highlights; Another Baffler; and Simon Juan

 

WHO IS WORTHY OF A BRIEF MENTION THESE DAYS?

July is really put up or shut up time for prospects. 

Maybe you struggled for a few months. 

Put up some gaudy July numbers, though, and you may get to change people’s opinions, etc.

Well?

WHO GOT IT DONE, DOWN ON THE FARM, IN JULY?

I am a little loose with sticking with just July here. I wanted to stray a bit, to point out the PERFORMERS, both in July and in the near term outside of July.

AAA

Nick Morabito - on base % over .400 in July, and spanning June and July, for that matter. Steals lots of bases. Rarely caught. 10 HRs.

 - waiting for a phone call.

Ronny Mauricio - hitting bombs since he returned from his reckless injury.

 - waiting for a phone call.

Nate Lavender - dominant in July, almost as dominant in June.

 - waiting for a phone call.

Jon Santucci - back-to-back strong months in AA. Just bumped to AAA!

 - he fanned 7 in 4 innings, but walked 5 in his Saturday AAA debut.

Jefry Yan - Killing hitters with Ks. In June and July, 38 Ks v. 11 BB in 17 IP.

 - waiting for a phone call.

AA

JT Schwartz - After an eternity of bad hitting in 2025 and 2026, JT hit .286/.395/.492 in 18 July games through July 28. He needs a lot more of that to change minds. But, you gotta start somewhere, and so he did. All 10 of his his HRs have come since May 19, a span of just 49 games.

 - apparently, he was moved to the Development list with a wave of hot bats arriving to the shores of Binghamton.

Corey Collins - a recent promotee from Brooklyn, he hit over .300/.430/.480 in June and July. I detect a strong pulse there.

Remember, though, that almost the entire 2026 Binghamton hitting squad has been mediocre to putrid. At the same time, 5 rusty MLB Rehabbers - Robert, Taylor, Polanco, Semien, and Lindor - went 13 for 28 in AA. 

Conclusion? Binghamton has had many bad hitters. But suddenly improved.

Pitching? I don’t like sushi, but I love Santucci. 

Dude was fine in June and July, and deservedly just bumped to AAA.

Newly acquired Billy Amick homered in his debut Saturday, and had a fine slugging July before the trade to the Mets, coming to the Mets, along with Bruin Agbayani, for A.J. Minter.

HIGH A

Mitch Voit and Daiverson Gutierrez, and Corey Collins, all swung sweet bats for Brooklyn in June and July.

Daviel Hurtado, Bryce Jenkins, and Channing Austin have dealt masterfully from the hill. Austin has moved up to AA, and been holding his own over 9 innings.

FULL A

Elian Peña, Trey Snyder, and Randy Guzman swung potent sticks when healthy. Keep a close eye on all 3. 

- Guzman was just promoted to High A, with a 7 for 17 roaring debut.

 - Snyder can’t be far behind. Slow 3 for 18 High A kick-off.

Julio Zayas gets on base, drives in runs - and catches. 

 - 122 RBIs in his first 693 pro ABs.

Antonio Jimenez (just back up to Brooklyn) hit .300 in July thru June 28.

ROOKIE

Vladi Gomez has excelled, and has just gotten re-promoted to St Lucie.

 - .322/.421/.427, 35 steals this season? OH VLADI, OH VLADA!

DSL

I will pass. Too many downright poor pitchers in the DSL to get a good read on how hitters are really doing. Seems the hitters to watch are Cleiner Ramirez, Wandy Asigen, and Jonnhan Sanchez. The first two, the Mets spent big bucks on.

ANOTHER METS ORGANIZATION PROSPECT BAFFLER

I reminded people the other day that former high-up Mets prospect Alex Ramirez hit an awful .215 in the Mets minors in 2023-25, but is hitting a resurrected .280 in AA with power this year in his new organization.

Then I mentioned ex-Mets prospect  Jeremiah Jackson in a comment.

Jackson hit .205 as he repeated AA for the Mets in 2024. 

Baltimore picks him up in 2025, and he immediately jumps 108 points to .313, then gets promoted.

In 384 MLB at bats in 2025 and 2026, in the town that Brooks Robinson built, he is hitting a highly respectable .260.

Considering these 2 “I-left-the-Mets-turned-success” stories, it leads me to ask:

WHO IN THE METS MINORS ARE THE METS NOW SCREWING UP? 

That is, if they were to move elsewhere…as 3 examples…

WILL RONNY MAURICIO GET DEALT, OR CUT, AND BECOME A 35 HR GUY?

WILL CLIFFORD AND HOUCK BECOME IMPRESSIVE CONTACT HITTERS?

(I gladly note that Houck went 6 for 12 with just 1 K in his last 3 games thru Friday. Maybe he made a needed adjustment).

And please, remember, Jake Mangum, a speedy defender who the Mets never gave a MLB sniff to, is a friggin’ THREE HUNDRED HITTER in 680 career MLB at bats, while the similarly “unsniffed” former Mets prospect Carlos Cortes is hitting .280 in 319 career MLB at bats.

That for those two Mets discards is 1,000 combined MLB at bats at a .295 batting average pace. To put that in perspective, who hits .295 anymore?

Answer: the two discards, and a few other guys. Juan Soto? Just .283.

Boy, some talent evaluators and developers in this organization, huh?

FROM DEAD IN THE WATER TO TREADING WATER

Simon Juan was an international bonus baby ($1.9 million) Mets signing a few years back, who has never put up big offensive numbers.

This year, in St Lucie, repeating the level, he did this in April and May:

APRIL: 17 games, .175/.224/.254, with 26 Ks.

MAY: 19 games, 175/.188/.333, 27 Ks.

Man, those are “dead as a doornail” numbers. Brutal. Zero pulse. Toast.

But improvement finally came:

JUNE: 20 games, .224/.244/.364, 21 Ks.  

Still weak, but gotta start somewhere, and those #s were much improved.

JULY: 16 games, .257/.379/.444, 16 Ks.

Another solid leap. If he had hit .257/.379/.444 all year, we’d feel hopeful.

2 games left in July as I write this. 

I have to say like the sharp drop in his K rate (1.50 to 1.00)in June and July.

His task, should he choose to accept it, is to accelerate the upward trend.

And the righty hitter needs to learn to hit lefties. 

7 for 47, 4 walks, 20 Ks this season. Brutal.

Just as brutal vs. lefties last year: 11 for 65, 28 Ks. 

Suggestion: Hire lefties to pitch to him. After all: 

Righties hitters need to eat lefties for lunch.

This is year 5 for the still-young, just-turned 21 year old. 

Treading water is OK. Now, learn to swim.

Tom Brennan - Trade Deadline is Monday, and Monday is Tomorrow

UNCLE STEVE, AM I THE ONLY ONE STRESSING OVER METS DEADLINES?

 

The Mets won’t be getting Tariq Skubal or Mason Miller at the trade deadline.

That acquisitive joy of getting super studs at the deadline is reserved for playoff-competitive teams. 

The Mets “OTOH” always flirt with eventual “congestive season failure”. 

The whole of the Mets team usually being less than the sum of the parts.

So, what’s it looking like so far?

A.J. Minter’s gone for 2 hitting prospects, one of whom is Benny Agbayani’s son, Bruin. 

Bruin has missed a lot of time this year with a right shoulder injury, may return soon, and is just 19. Still hasn’t hit his first pro home run, but only has 74 pro plate appearances.

What I like about him right off the bat? His bat.

It makes contact. In Full A ball this year, he fanned just 3 times in 51 PAs, while walking 9 times. That says “future major leaguer” to me.

He is a 6’2”, 185 lefty hitting infielder. He was the Twinkies’ # 29 prospect.

Billy Amick, the other acquired hitter, is 23. In AA, he had an impressive 23 HRs and 72 RBIs in 86 games. Amick hit those dingers in 379 PAs at the time of the trade, but was hitting just .217 with 108 Ks. A righty hitting 1B/3B, he was a # 21 prospect for Minnesota. 

He had his best month (.278/.389/.569) in July after a bad June. With only 722 pro plate appearances to date, who knows if this former 60th overall pick can soar from here?

Minter relieved quite well, except he was only available in < 50% of his Mets tenure due to injury. Just 36 relief outings in 1 2/3 seasons with the Metsies for the currently healthy, soon-to-be 33 year old.

RVH – Evaluating the Mets 2026 Trade Deadline Moves: Looking Beyond the Headlines

 

As the trade deadline approaches, speculation naturally centers around one question:

Who are the Mets going to trade?

I think the more interesting question is this:

What is David Stearns trying to accomplish?

Too often we judge the deadline by comparing names or debating whether one team "won" a trade. While that's entertaining, it rarely reflects what a front office is actually trying to achieve.

Every trade is an exchange of organizational assets. The objective isn't simply to acquire the best player available. It's to maximize the long-term value of the organization.

With that in mind, here's the framework I'll be using to evaluate whatever David Stearns does over the next few days.

First, classify the asset.

Not every player represents the same type of organizational asset.

Expiring Assets

These are players whose value largely disappears once the season ends.

For the Mets, that group includes Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Brooks Raley, Tyrone Taylor and Luis Robert. A.J. Minter has already been moved.

The objective is simple:

Convert a depreciating asset into future organizational value.

That value can come in several forms:

• Useful prospect capital.

• A controllable major league player.

• Payroll relief.

• Or some combination of the three.

Controllable Assets

Players such as Luke Weaver, Luis Torrens, Francisco Alvarez and Sean Manaea fall into a different category.

There is no urgency to move them.

Instead, the question becomes:

Does another organization value this player more than the Mets do?

If the answer is yes—and they're willing to pay accordingly—a deal makes sense. Otherwise, there is little reason to trade a controllable asset simply for the sake of activity.

Core Asset

For me, there is currently one true core organizational asset.

Francisco Lindor.

Every organization has one or two players whose value inside the organization exceeds any realistic trade return.

Lindor is that player.

I simply don't see him being traded unless another club presents a truly overwhelming, franchise-altering offer that unmistakably makes the Mets a better organization over both the short and long term. Those opportunities are extraordinarily rare.

The Hidden Variable: Cash Efficiency

One theory I'll be watching closely has little to do with prospects.

It has to do with cash efficiency.

The Mets have already committed significant dollars to players who are unavailable, underperforming, or simply no longer providing value commensurate with their contracts. Those dollars are sunk costs.

What Stearns can still influence is the remaining payroll commitment for 2026.

Moving expiring contracts over the next few days reduces both salary obligations and the associated Competitive Balance Tax penalties. Because the Mets remain deep into the highest luxury tax tier, every dollar removed from payroll saves substantially more than a dollar in total cash outlay.

This isn't about whether Steve Cohen can afford it.

It's about avoiding inefficient spending.

Reducing unnecessary payroll commitments helps offset some of the dead money already on the books while making future roster decisions more flexible. It may also make it easier to move on from veterans whose future value no longer justifies their remaining contracts.

Viewed through that lens, payroll relief becomes another organizational asset.

Setting Realistic Expectations

Every fan hopes for a headline prospect package.

History suggests that's unlikely.

Elite prospects rarely change organizations unless elite talent is moving the other direction. Players such as Juan Soto or Tarik Skubal command those types of returns. Most deadline deals do not.

Instead, successful organizations often acquire players who fall into more practical categories:

• Upper-level prospects with a realistic chance to contribute.

• Young players blocked within another organization.

• Players with one or two standout tools that a player development staff believes it can unlock.

• Organizational depth that fills future needs.

The goal isn't necessarily to find the next superstar.

It's to steadily improve the inventory of controllable talent throughout the organization.

The Bigger Test

In many ways, this deadline represents an important evaluation point for David Stearns.

The 2026 season has fallen well short of expectations. Whether due to injuries, roster construction, underperformance, or simple miscalculations, the organization now has an opportunity to recover value where it can.

That means making disciplined decisions on expiring assets.

It means improving cash efficiency.

It means adding useful prospect capital.

And it means creating opportunities for the next wave of players already in the organization.

Additional bullpen arms. Young starting pitchers. Ronny Mauricio. Christopher Morel. Others who deserve an opportunity to prove they belong.

Roster spots are organizational assets, too.

Sometimes the most valuable deadline move isn't the player you acquire.

It's the opportunity you create.

My Scorecard

When the deadline is over, I won't be asking whether the Mets "won" individual trades.

I'll be asking a different set of questions.

• Did they maximize the value of their expiring assets?

• Did they improve the organization's inventory of controllable talent?

• Did they improve cash efficiency?

• Did they create opportunities for younger players?

• Did they leave the organization healthier, deeper and more flexible heading into 2027?

That's the framework I'll be using over the next few days.

Now let's see what David Stearns has in mind.

Cautious Optimist - Inconvenient Truths about the Baseball Trade Deadline

This is a post for true Mets fans. 

As I see it, a true Mets fan shares two fundamental character traits revealed as follows.  

1. A true Mets fan appreciates dark humor as cathartic especially if it comes from a good place and at an appropriate time.

2. A true Mets fan is someone who has sat (or would sit ) through the entire original Star Wars Trilogy having bet on the Empire to be victorious. Indeed, would lay the same bet even upon seeing the Trilogy a second or third time.

Not because he or she wants the Empire to emerge victorious.  Quite the opposite in fact.  Our loyal Mets fan longs for Hans Solo and team to defeat the Emperor, Darth and their legion.  His bet is instead a form of emotional insurance designed to offset in part what he assumes to be his invariable and otherwise unbearable disappointment.  

And so, with this as a backdrop, I bring you today's post on the impending trade deadline.  

For reasons that will become clear, I am a 'trade deadline' cynic.  There is something about a trade deadline that triggers my dark side.

With the ever banal trigger warning that 'your mileage may vary', here I am and 

If you want it darker, I am your man.

Have you ever given serious thought to why every major sport includes a trade deadline at just about this juncture during the season?  

I have, and this is what I've come up with as the primary (not the only) explanation -- though I suspect many will disagree vehemently. 

Professional sports leagues establish a trading deadline during the season to spike interest at just that point in the season when the fans of most teams are poised to abandon all hope that their team's season will end well.  

The deadline is NOT designed to offer genuine hope for the near hopeless nor is it designed to provide preemptive rewards for the likely victors, though most trade deadlines do both -- and quite well, if disinegenously.

No, the trade deadline is designed to create energy in a flagging season in order to create revenue to offset falling attendance and cover team carrying costs until the real season -- the post season -- arrives.    

To be sure, for those diehard fans willing to believe with a capital B the trade deadline remains the last flicker of hope that a spark will ignite the team and carry it all the way to the post season.  

But not just the diehards, as the trade deadline draws the attention of even the realists among a team's fanbase.  It provides the realists who have already written off the season -- which in many cases should have occurred much earlier than it in fact does -- reason to believe that their team is taking steps to retool themselves sufficiently to keep hope alive -- if not for this year, then for the next or one of the many years thereafter.

Trade deadlines stimulate debate, fuel speculation, hope, fear and loathing, disappointment and anger -- all genuine emotions that display signs of life  -- that generate conversation, publicity and advertising revenue for a few weeks.  

If you think I am overstating the 'revenue generating' appetite that is fed by the yearly trade deadline, I beg to differ as the last month's worth of baseball publications has picked up steam accelerating story after story of possible trade scenarios.  The preferred form of transmission being one or another kind of list.

For your perusal, as Rod Sterling might have said

* The six teams that must sell at the deadline

* The ten teams that will be buyers

* The thirty teams who may or may not be buyers or sellers.

* The top 75 potential players who will change uniforms at the deadline

* The one player on every team that will change uniforms

* The General Managers who are on the hot seat at the deadline.

* The Yankees interest in Francisco Lindor that won't go away

* The Orioles are at an inflection point

* Does San Diego go big again?

* Can the Blue Jays be buyers now for next year

And it goes 'On and On.'

This is nothing compared to the outpouring from baseball insiders:

*  'Five trades I would like to see at the deadline' 

followed in a day or so by articles entitled, 

* 'Why the five trades I wanted to see happen at the deadline won't happen at the deadline (or ever)'.

The most interesting hours of the actual trade deadline occur immediately after it ends as fans and radio hosts alike wait for news that rarely comes of last minute trades that have been made but not yet been sent to the Commissioner's office as part of the official notification process.  

It's a lot like waiting for the mail in ballots to arrive and be counted, potentially shifting the results on the Original Big Board.

We now know what the Deadline is FOR, but what actually occurs up to and including the deadline?

From the point of view of the sellers, almost nothing good happens, beyond off loading expensive talent (which is not to be taken lightly). The inconvenient truth for sellers, however, is that:

 Over 70% of all prospects traded at the deadline either never make the majors or fail to accumulate a positive career WAR. 
Fewer than 7% of all minor leaguers moved in these summer deals go on to produce a major-league career value of 5 or more bWAR. 

If we assume that buyers at the deadline are purchasing major league players in return for which they send out minor league prospects (a reasonable general hypothesis that does not apply in all cases), it is fair to say that the trade deadline is basically an institutional arrangement that shifts net value from sellers (those teams that already suck) to buyers (teams that are already performing comparably better).

That my friends is what the statistics quoted above tell us.

And so we should conclude that two things happen leading up to and including the trade deadline.

1.  Revenue that would otherwise not be created fills the coffers of those within the baseball ecosystem (i.e. the pie gets larger), and

2. Baseball value is shifted from the have nots to the haves.

Given that this is essentially what happens at every trade deadline, it should come as no surprise that Baseball is universally recognized as America's pastime.  It is an institutional mechanism for increasing wealth while redistributing it from the least well off to the most well off. 

(Though even I have difficulty referring to any baseball owner as anything other than very well off :-)).

So if you are a Mets fan hoping for an infusion of potential major league talent into the farm system by offloading the likes of genuinely good major leaguers like Weaver, Taylor, Holmes or Torrens, as Graham Parker puts it,

                             'Don't Get Excited!'

What comes next

After the tradeline and its aftermath have come to a halt, the lull in the season returns for the fans of most teams, while many journalists try, usually in vain, to keep the excitement going by speculating about the impact the trades that have been made will have on the pennant races.  

Other journalists, especially those with insider information, will explain to a waiting audience why various trades did not materialize.  

After a week or so, maybe less, the writing, fantasizing and speculation will come to a close and we journalists will return to normalcy, which in the case of most of us covering particular teams consists largely in our going back and forth between lamenting the absence of action at the deadline and optimism borne out of the fact that the team's failing to do anything is a signal of just how good their minor league prospect pool is.

So what's it all about Alfie? 

Eyes and entertainment dollars.  It generates conversation, some of it interesting.  It generates hope, little of it warranted.  It generates revenue, all of it welcomed.  And if anything, it widens the gaps between the haves and the have nots.

Ironically, the 'small market team that has benefitted most by activity at the trade deadline' is the one that has most often done the least at the deadline: namely, the Brewers.

Every trade deadline the same lyric runs through my mind: "Oh Momma, can this really be the end, to be stuck inside a mobile with the Memphis Blues Again?'

And on an optimistic note

I would never leave you in a state of anticipatory dismay.  Here we are on Saturday, just a few days from the end of the trade period, and there remains so much to be optimistic about.  

And so, as the house optimist, I am here to tell you that by Monday, the Mets will make several trades by the deadline, most involving their excellent reliever corp, for minor leaguers we scamper to learn more about over the coming weeks.

Ever the futurist as well (like the guy who keeps showing up on my email feeds who 'called' NVDIA at $1.10 a dozen or so years ago -- and is now probably living somewhere on the streets of San Francisco - I am certain that Mets will also pull off the most remarkable trade at the deadline. 

Please see the link below for a short video in which I provide the names of the players involved so that you may have actionable information to employ on your Kalshi prediction market account. The video is free; no credit card information requested.  (Unnecessary of course, since once you click on to see the video I will have all the information I need to hound you mercilessly for the next year or so!) .

There is no end to many ways a sport can become a source of revenue -- directly and otherwise.

Every good story is compatible with a number of different outcomes, some of which flatly contradict one another.  

In that spirit,

I also predict that the Mets will be unable to trade Baty, Vientos, Semien, Polanco, Senga, Manaea, or Robert Jr, though they continue to entertain offers for both Mr. and Mrs. Met -- individually and as a team.  I have it on good authority that the FO is engaged in conversations with the Phillies who are looking to part ways with the now tiresome Philly Fanatic, and the Brewers, who are prepared to part ways with either a galloping bratwurst or an aging Polish sausage -- but not both.

And so dear reader, I leave you with two expressions of wisdom that have carried me through many baseball trade deadlines.

The first is owed to my onetime now sometime doppleganger, Nick Lowe, who in his first album, originally released in the UK under the title, Jesus of Cool "  and in the U.S. under an equally catchy but potentially less offensive title, "Pure Pop for Now People" perfectly described a baseball season (not by reference howeever)

"And so it goes, and so it goes, but where it's going no one knows.'

Which I quite like, but nowhere near as much as I like the even better lyric,  "If you don't know where you're going any road will take you there."

Sounds a lot like most baseball front offices.

But literally nothing can top (for me) the wisdom of the bard of bebop comedy, Lord Buckley, who reminded us in his telling of the Biblical story of Jonah and the Whale, that "When you get to it and you cannot do it, there you jolly well are, aren't you."

Enjoy the Deadline

Ambiguously speaking, Ain't Nothing Like the Real Thing

  

Reese Kaplan -- Let's Consider How They Do Whatever They Do

For a moment let’s shift away from the names of the players in question who may or may not be traded by Monday at the 6:00 PM deadline for midseason roster transactions and instead look a bit at the process itself.

For purposes of this exercise, forget baseball, it’s entertainment focus, the fight for pennants and the questions about payroll.  Instead, let’s consider the approaches that could be taken and what it means for the returns given in prospective trades.

Think for a moment about a produce market where you arrive to a bevy of tempting treats of all kinds available to the first taker at whatever high price the seller chooses to demand.  The advantage here is hard to define.  The buyer gets his choice of the best of the best but acknowledges that by doing so he’s agreeing to pay an over-market price to ensure his top choices don’t go anywhere else.

Now instead think of the buying and selling process more like residential real estate in a planned housing community.  The early buyers here often get bargain prices knowing that they will have to live with construction noise, full facilities not yet readily available and a lot of uncertainty.  By contrast the late buyers get properties fully finished, streets, parks and other amenities all ready to use but the prices have skyrocketed to pay for the move-in conveniences ready to use. 

Now let’s circle back to baseball and think a bit about the process in place.  We’ll leave out the early deal sending David Peterson over to Chicago as it is not really deadline relevant as much as the still yet-to-be-made deals will be.  Instead, let’s focus on the August 1-3 period of roster activity and how it will impact the Mets for better or worse.

In this scenario it would appear that David Stearns is more in the real estate mode of late buyers and sellers than the produce market model of being rewarded for going first.  If, for example, a team needs a healthy starting pitcher to help propel them into October baseball and the Mets are sitting on both Freddy Peralta, Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga as possibilities, the longer the buyers wait to make a deal it would seem that the higher the prices would go for these players as there is a diminished market of alternatives readily available.  

This approach could be justified for that reason alone.  You could add in relievers A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley and Huascar Brazoban for pretty much the same reasons.  Waiting on Clay Holmes is more about him proving his health before he vaults towards the top of the readily available and desirable list.  When there's very little left prices tend to get higher.

Then there are the wholly less desirable pieces who clearly no one is advocating being a part of the team’s future.  This group could include Marcus Semien, Luis Robert, Tyrone Taylor and Jorge Polanco.  You could do the “take whatever you can get” approach simply to make the change and potentially relieve payroll obligations.  Trading away pending free agent Tyrone Taylor for a prospective bag of balls is not desirable but it would be understandable.

For the other three in this list it could require extensive creativity to push transactions to happen.  One obvious route used in the past such as the summer of 2023 is to pay down future payroll obligations to entice another club to embrace a less than ideal solution at a relatively less onerous price.  This approach does not make the accountants happy in Metsville but it does open the door to moving otherwise unmovable pieces.

The other approach to take which is less often done successfully is to tie the most desired players on the roster to unwanted ones in order to make the trades actually take place.  In this case you could say to a new team, “Do you want Clay Holmes and his 2.39 ERA?  Well, you can have him but only if you accept Luis Robert as part of the trade.”  

Now for opposing clubs, a two month rental with no further obligation is not that big a burder to swallow, but for the Mets it gives them an option to rid themselves of roster underperformers by tying them at the hip to the players most desired by other clubs.  You can work this same type of exercise on any of the others in the Mets top list.

Finally, there’s the buyer’s side of things where he has to decide as the clock ticks down whether a bounty of questionable prospects is an acceptable return on whomever the other team desires in order to set up the Mets for theoretical success in the future.  With over 700 prospects moved and the VAST majority of them never cracking the majors this approach is certainly risky.  Still, making changes is in itself a public relations reward even if the returns are not guaranteed.

In the interim, we simply sit, wait and ready our analysis when actual deals take place.