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None of these is quite ready for passing judgement yet, as baseball is a game that is best evaluated over large sample sets. But it is fun to get the discussion going, as many are already projecting who will make the April roster.
Share your highs and lows in the comments.
Heading into the offseason, the New York Mets were tasked with shoring up its pitching staff in an effort to surrender fewer runs. As analytics has continued to take over baseball, it has come to the forefront that pitching isn’t the only way to keep opposing offenses off of the scoreboard. Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns made it clear when he came over to Queens that his organization was going to focus on team defense and overall run prevention.
Run prevention was a goal during Stearns’ time with the Milwaukee Brewers, and he was clearly going to emphasize it heading into the 2026 season. Run prevention was cited as one of the key reasons the franchise decided to let fan favorite Pete Alonso walk to Baltimore to suit up for the Orioles. It’s why the team willingly traded away another homegrown talent in Brandon Nimmo for an aging Marcus Semien. The team was willing to sacrifice offense in order to play a cleaner defensive brand of baseball.
In the later portion of the offseason, the Mets made a blockbuster signing that didn’t necessarily line up with the overall offseason agenda. After missing out on Kyle Tucker to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets quickly pivoted and inked Bo Bichette to a three-year deal worth $42 million annually. Bichette has never been known for his defense and now was going to be asked to play a position he had never played, third base, also known as the hot corner.
The bold move was rightfully questioned and was even thrusted into the spotlight after one of Bichette’s throws from third in the early goings of spring training was off line to Jose Rojas at first base. People are going to continue to question the decision to sign Bichette and play him at a position he has never played before. The Mets aren’t going to get the benefit of the doubt, but the move to the hot corner for the former Toronto Blue Jay might not be as strange as it appears on paper.
When the Blue Jays made the fall classic last year, Bichette was forced to move off of shortstop due to a knee injury he suffered towards the end of the regular season. Although shortstop was the position Bichette had only known, the move was destined to occur sooner or later. Last season, Bichette ranked dead last in outs above average with -13. He was tied with J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners for 37th place. As a reminder, there are only 30 MLB organizations. Since 2019, when Bichette made his debut, he was 38th out of the 41 qualifiers with a -33 outs above average at the position.
One of the most significant reasons a move off of the position was a formality was due to Bichette’s range. Unlike any other position in the infield, shortstop requires one to possess the best range skills, moving both to the left and right. With recent guidelines that have prevented teams from shifting, Bichette’s range deficiencies could no longer be masked around the diamond.
At third base, Bichette’s range will not be tested nearly to the same extent. His first step quickness will be an area he will be forced to hone in on, but his lateral skills won’t be a major area of concern. Moving over to third, his arm will be tested more than it was a shortstop. Don’t get me wrong, one needs a strong arm to play shortstop, but arm strength will be tested at a much more consistent rate when playing at third. Bichette’s arm strength may have only been 36th at the position in 2025, but that does compare favorably to other players.
Bichette averaged 82.3 MPH on his throws from last season. That ranked just below the Texas Rangers’ Josh Smith, who played over 30 games at third base last season (and also multiple contests in the outfield). Bichette’s arm tested better than the man who will be playing to his left for the upcoming year.
Lindor’s average was over a full mile-per-hour lower than Bichette. Maybe it’s due to his size, but Corey Seager is seen across the league as someone with a bazooka for an arm, yet he only averaged only just over 80 MPH on his throws. Bichette being 36th in arm strength at shortstop actually stations him as league average for the position. When transitioning over to third base, Bichette’s arm would tie Alex Bregman among third baseman and be well ahead of Cincinnati Reds’ Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is well-known for his defense, along with last year’s Mets third baseman, Brett Baty.
Fast forward to this past Tuesday, Bichette showed his instincts by making a nice bar-handed grab before firing an on-target throw to first base for the out. Sometimes we need a reminder that it’s February. Across the Grapefruit and Cactus league, there is going to be some ugly baseball and ugly plays. This goes for everyone, even among players who are stationed at the same spot they’ve been playing for over a decade. I am not trying to make an argument that Bichette will turn into a gold glover at third base.
Don’t expect any Brooks Robinson comparisons, but the hot corner fits Bichette’s skillset better than even shortstop does at this point in his career. There are going to be growing pains, but Bichette should be able to settle in and offer league average play at the position. Even if it dips slightly below the league average, the value that Bichette’s bat will provide to the lineup should do more than just offset his third base play.
When the move was made, it definitely seemed to deviate from what Stearns and company had been preaching all offseason, but the Mets are an improved defensive ballclub, and Bichette’s presence should not take away from any of that.
This series has looked
at the players that are in position to compete for a slot on that roster but were
not a lock. After discussing them in position groups in the prior five
posts, I now pull it together with my projected opening day roster.
Based upon MLB rules that
allow only 26 players on the active roster from opening day through August
31st, and my belief that the Mets will use the maximum of 13 pitchers, this is
what will be posted on the clubhouse door when the team heads towards game one
of the 2026 season.
Infielders: Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien,
Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Ronny Mauricio
Outfielders: Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr.,
Tyrone Taylor, MJ Melendez, Brett Baty
Catchers: Francisco Alvarez; Luis Torrens
Designated Hitters: Mark Vientos
Starting Pitchers: RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Nolan McLean, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Kodai Senga, LHP David Peterson
Relief Pitchers: LHP Sean Manaea, RHP Tobias Myers, RHP
Christian Scott, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Devin Williams, RHP Luke Weaver, LHP Brooks
Raley, LHP Nate Lavender
That was a tough list to finalize
this early in the spring without performance history from this year. There are some notable absences from this
roster that will be painful, last minute cuts if no one gets hurt before
opening day. As we head into March, a
little bit of March Madness bracket terminology would help:
Last four in: Mark
Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Christian Scott, Nate Lavender
First four out: Mike Tauchman,
Carson Benge, Dylan Ross, Jonah Tong
Give me your thoughts on this roster in the comments!
If we assume a successful season — specifically a 93-win campaign that likely clinches a premium Wildcard and possibly the NL East — what does the math actually require?
To answer that, we have to stop debating individual players in isolation and start examining how wins are actually distributed across a 162-game season.
Reverse-Engineering a 93-Win Season
Every MLB season breaks down into three broad “game type buckets”:
The Blowouts (~30% / 48–50 games):
Games decided by five or more runs. These preserve bullpens, inflate run differential, and usually reflect talent gaps.
The Close Calls (~30% / 48–50 games):
One-run games. Often framed as coin flips, but for elite teams, they are stress tests of pitching leverage and late-inning structure.
The Competitive Middle (~40% / 62–65 games):
Games decided by two to four runs. This is the fulcrum of the season, where roster floor, defense, and execution quietly determine outcomes.
If the Mets are serious about winning 93 games, the path runs directly through these buckets.
1. Dominating the Blowout Bucket
The Goal: 32–35 wins
The Process:
To reach 93 wins, you must win the games you should win — and win them convincingly.
The additions of Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, and Freddy Peralta aren’t just about star power or name recognition. They’re about lineup length and redundancy. The intent is to turn games that hover on the edge of competitiveness into decisive outcomes before leverage ever becomes relevant.
In recent down years, the Mets hovered around 15–20 blowout wins. The 93-win model requires pushing that number toward the mid-30s, insulating the team against inevitable cold streaks elsewhere.
Blowouts don’t just pad the standings. They reduce stress on every other bucket.
2. Tilting the One-Run “Coin Flip” (Pitching-Led)
The Goal: 23–25 wins (.600 winning percentage)
The Process:
In 2025, the Mets played 66 one-run games and won just 31 of them (.470). A 93-win team cannot allow these games to be governed by hope.
This isn’t about “beating variance.” It’s about preventing variance from dictating the season — and that burden falls primarily on pitching.
The addition of Freddy Peralta gives the Mets a starter capable of carrying narrow leads deeper into games, reducing early bullpen exposure. More broadly, a healthier starting staff changes the shape of these contests. Fewer short starts mean fewer innings asked of the bullpen before leverage truly matters.
At the back end, the Mets have layered relief options rather than relying on a single choke point. Devin Williams anchors the ninth, while Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, and Meyers form a deeper, more flexible bridge. No single arm has to be perfect; the structure absorbs off nights.
When the margin is one run, pitching depth and sequencing matter more than vibes.
3. Winning the Competitive Middle (The Season’s Fulcrum)
The Goal: 36–38 wins
The Process:
This is where seasons are quietly won and lost.
Blowouts flatter talent. One-run games test leverage. But the competitive middle reveals whether a roster has a floor.
Here, the gains come from accumulation rather than flash. Improved infield defense, more athletic outfield coverage, lineup balance from both sides, and fewer pitching breakdowns all combine to reduce self-inflicted damage. These are the games where a single extra baserunner or defensive lapse flips the outcome.
Historically, this is where Mets seasons have cracked — not loudly, but incrementally.
The 2026 roster is designed to leak less in these spots.
4. Sustaining the 162-Game Horizon
The Goal: Avoiding the second-half fade
The Process:
We’ve seen this movie before. In both 2021 and 2025, the Mets collapsed under the accumulated tax of earlier months. Wins borrowed in April and May came due in September.
A 93-win season requires a second-half winning percentage north of .540. That doesn’t come from “trying harder.” It comes from depth — across the lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen — so the roster doesn’t hollow out when the calendar turns.
Depth isn’t a luxury. It’s variance insurance.
The Takeaway
The 2026 Mets aren’t just hoping the stars align. Through the lens of the Mets Process, a 93-win season is a series of mathematical benchmarks tied to structural intent.
For the first time in the Cohen era, the roster appears designed to absorb the variance of a 162-game season rather than be broken by it.
When the season begins, we won’t just be watching for home runs or radar-gun readings. We’ll be watching the one-run games, the competitive middle, and the long horizon — the places where this model either proves durable or quietly fails.
That’s where the math will tell us the truth.
9. RHSP Will Watson
23/years
old 6-1 180
7th rd. 2024 – USC
2025 –
A/A+/AA: 28-G, 23-ST, 3-9, 2.60, 1.20,
121.1-IP, 142-K, 58-BB
GROK
-
Will
Watson is widely regarded
as one of their breakout prospects in 2025.
He signed for
$281,300, just under slot value.
Prior to USC,
Watson attended California Lutheran University and San Joaquin Delta College,
where he was drafted in the 20th round by the Seattle Mariners in 2023 but
opted to return to school.
Watson's
journey to pro ball included a solid college season at USC in 2024, where he
appeared in 16 games (9 starts), posting a 3.93 ERA over 50.1 innings with 46
strikeouts, 27 walks, and a 1.411 WHIP.
Watson
profiles primarily as a pitcher with starter potential but could transition to
relief if command issues persist. He's praised for his competitiveness,
athleticism, and ability to miss bats,
2025
Performance and Rise
Watson's
first full professional season in 2025 has been a revelation, earning him spots
on Mets top-prospect lists. He began at Single-A St. Lucie, where he dominated
with a sub-3.00 ERA and high strikeout totals, including a career-high 7 Ks in
4.1 hitless innings in his debut on April 9.
Promoted to
High-A Brooklyn in June, he continued excelling (e.g., 8 Ks in 4.2 scoreless
innings on June 13), then reached Double-A Binghamton by late summer.
Scouts call
him a "wildcard" arm with quick-rising potential, though his
fringe-average control (walks remain a hurdle) could cap him as a mid-rotation
starter or high-leverage reliever.
ETA to MLB:
2027, but aggressive promotions suggest 2026 is possible.
Pitch
Repertoire
Watson's
arsenal is deep and versatile, featuring a five-pitch mix that plays well
against both lefties and righties. He's experienced a velocity spike in pro
ball (up 2-3 mph across the board), crediting Mets development for better
extension and spin. He throws from a low-three-quarters slot with a leg kick
and long arm action, adding deception. His fastball-centric approach keeps
hitters off-balance, and he's noted that opponents "haven't been
comfortable" facing it.
Four-Seam
Fastball
94-97 mph
(avg. 95)
Rise/run
profile with elite spin (up to 2,300 RPM); explosive life up in the zone for
whiffs. Primary pitch (50-60% usage).
Plus grade;
generates swing-and-miss (often his best offering). Peaks at 97 mph.
Slider
84-87 mph
(mid-80s avg.)
Sharp, late
break with two-plane movement; pairs well with fastball for righties.
Above-average;
key for stealing strikes and Ks (recently "working really well").
20-25% usage.
Cutter
88-91 mph
(upper-80s avg.)
New addition
in 2025; hard, late cut to tunnel with fastball/slider.
Fringe-average
but improving; used as bridge pitch (10-15% usage). "Still finding the
right spots," per Watson.
Changeup
87-90 mph
(upper-80s avg.)
Tailing
action with arm-side fade; firm but flashes plus potential vs. lefties.
Above-average;
complements fastball for reverse splits. 10-15% usage.
Curveball
78-82 mph
Deeper, 12-6
break as change-of-pace; less used but adds depth.
Average;
situational for early counts or stealing strikes. <10% usage.
Strengths:
High-spin fastball and slider combo drives his 25-30% K-rate; athletic delivery
aids repeatability. Areas for growth: Command (4+ BB/9) to unlock full
potential—refining this could elevate all pitches to plus. Watson's meteoric
2025 rise—from seventh-rounder to Double-A playoff starter—marks him as a Mets
system bonus. With the organization's pitching lab, he could emerge as a
dark-horse rotation piece by 2027.
11-7-2025
Just Baseball
14. Will Watson – RHP – (Double-A)
Height/Weight:
6’1″, 185 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 7th Round (203) – NYM (2024) | ETA: 2027
Initially a
two-way player at California Lutheran, Watson shifted his focus to the mound
full time before transferring to USC where he pitched his way from the bullpen
to a starter’s role. His athleticism is evident, working down the mound well,
releasing from a roughly 5 foot height with a long arm action that can make it
difficult to consistently hit his spots.
Though his
fastball averaged 95 MPH and is released from a low slot, it seemed to be
relatively easy for hitters to stay on, with a 45% Hard Hit rate allowed and a
swinging strike rate below 8%. His best pitch is his plus slider at 85-87 MPH
that decimated right-handed hitters in 2025. His equalizer for lefties is an
above average changeup, but he will mix in a fringy cutter as well.
Watson has
big league stuff and the athleticism to dream on some more, but his command
will need to improve to fend off a move to the bullpen.
11-8-2025
Tom
Brennan/MM
13. RHP Will Watson
Very, very
promising righty. I promise.
A 22 year old
6’1” righty, with a 60 rated FB, he threw 3 brief innings of toe-dipping in
2024, then went just 3-9 in 2025, but with a dazzling 2.60 ERA and 142 Ks in
121 IP. W/L records in the minors don’t
mean a lot, as starters often get pulled after 4 innings or in the 5th, denying
them the chance to pick up a W.
In the second
half of 2025, Watson had a 2.10 ERA. Pitching at 3 levels, 18 of his 2025
innings were in his 3rd destination in Binghamton. Could very well be a 2027 Mets starter. A
“Sherlock” for a rotation spot, some might say.
12-6-2025
Angry
Mike/MM
WILL
WATSON -> Watson is
another SP who will draw a lot of attention, becuz of how his arsenal improved
across the board & his strong finish. His stuff is electric & he has a
future as a SP or RP, which is why the extra attention is based on what the
Mets decide to do.
-> Will we
see another uptick in VELO on all his pitches? Can Watson take another step
forward with his command? If both these things happen you have a potential Top
100 Prospect by season’s end.
12-15-2025
Angry
Mike/MM
Will Watson was selected in the 7th Round of the 2024 Draft out of U.S.C., after spending a couple years of eligibility honing his skills on the JUCO circuit. Watson’s assignment St. Lucie started off very well, before battling control issues during his second month, allowing an uncharacteristic 18 walks for the month of May.
The Mets still saw enough to promote him to Brooklyn in June, which is when Watson’s season really took off. Watson features an improving arsenal, that features 3 pitches above-average to plus, highlighted by a 4-seam fastball, that generates comparable I.V.B to Jonah Tong.
2025 SEASON
HIGHLIGHTS:
- 14 outings allowed ZERO ER -> pitching
into the 5th IP in 12 of them
- 18 outings allowed 3 hits or fewer -> 4
outings pitched fewer than 3 IP
- 8 outings pitched into the 5th IP or longer
-> allowed 2 or fewer hits
- 21 outings he had 4+ strikeouts
- 9 of his final 10 outings he had 5 or more
strikeouts
- 9 outings of 6+ strikeouts
- 7 outings of 7+ strikeouts
- Posted 4 months of with an ERA under 2.00
& 16+ IP
- Posted 3 months only allowing 3 or fewer runs
across 16+ IP
- Only 2 outings -> allowed more than 3
earned runs
- 6 outings
-> 23 ER |
23 IP -> 9.00
ERA
- 22 outings
-> 12 ER |
98.1 IP -> 1.10
ERA
MAY 31st GS:
1st outing of season -> pitched a career-high 81 pitches
Fastball
registered (95+) -> 6 times past the 65-pitch mark
JUNE - AUGUST
23rd OUTINGS -> Promoted to Hi-A: Brooklyn
Performed his
best facing off against toughest competition of his career
Eclipsed
previous career high in IP for a season
Showing ZERO
signs of fatigue
Showed
improved command
Fastball,
Changeup, & Slider -> all flashed above-average
Mets
increased pitch counts into the 65-87 pitches per start
1.70 ERA -> 14 outings | 63.2
IP
.199 BAA was
the lowest of his professional career over longest stretch of his professional
career
25
strikeouts -> 2 starts posted 8 strikeouts each
30% K-RATE
& 11% BB-RATE | 63.2 IP career-best for longest stretch of IP
Allowed
fewest homers per 9 IP
Obviously Peralta and Holmes are slated to be regular starters after the former’s All Star level performance and the latter’s successful transition from reliever to starter. Nolan McLean is about as sure a thing as you can write down today after his totally dominating September debut. So it would appear that three of the six spots are already nailed down.
Of course, behind these top six starting pitchers are the ones getting seasoning and health in AAA. It would appear that going into the 2026 season the Mets are in better shape pitching-wise than they were last year. Then again, that conclusion surmises health and competence. Still, the potential to be very good is indeed there.
With a re-designed core and many new players and a deep reserve of prospects, this year’s spring training will become an intriguing competition for spots on the opening day 26-man roster.
This series will take a
look at the players that are in position to compete for a slot on that roster
but are not a lock. We will look at the pros and cons of carrying them
with the MLB team when they break camp with the alternative being depth and
development pieces in the minor leagues.
Some players are very well
established as MLB regulars that are not reasonable candidates for demotion, so
for the purposes of this review the following list of players are considered
locked down on the MLB Roster:
Infielders: Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien,
Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette,
Outfielders: Juan Soto, Luis Robert Jr.,
Tyrone Taylor
Pitchers: Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean,
Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks
Raley
Catchers: Francisco Alvarez; Luis Torrens
Given this list, and MLB
rules that allow only 26 players on the active roster from opening day through
August 31st, and that a maximum of 13 pitchers can be listed among the 26
players, there will only be room to carry five more pitchers and five more position
players beyond what is listed above.
Today we will take a look at the Starting Pitchers that are vying for some of those
five “contested” spots:
Relief Pitchers on the 40-man roster:
AJ Minter, Huascar Brazoban, Luis Garcia, Dylan Ross, Bryan
Hudson, Joey Gerber, Alex Carillo, Austin Warren
AJ Minter – I am rooting for AJ Minter to make a full recovery. He is a very effective lefty out of the pen
in the late innings when he is at his best.
Unfortunately, he is going to take longer to rehab and will not be
available for the first month. At best
he will join the team in mid to late May, making his two year, $22M contract
effectively a five-month rental. By the
time he turns free agent again at the end of this season, he will be 33 years
old.
Huascar Brazoban – Brazoban returns from a UCL injury to his right elbow suffered
in August last year. If he recovers to
his previous performance standard, he is a sometimes effective, sometimes wild
arm for the mid-to-late inning bullpen cast.
Dylan Ross – I see Ross in the major leagues by 2027. He is a power arm out of the bullpen that has
been lights out in Brooklyn, then Binghamton, then Syracuse last season. He pitched to a combined 2.17 ERA with 1.15
WHIP and 80 strikeouts in 49 games. This
included a 1.69 ERA in 288 appearances at AAA!
The team was so impressed with this 6’5” 251-pound fireballer last year
that they placed him on the 40-man roster even though he didn’t yet need rule 5
protection. He could open the season in
the big leagues, especially since AJ Minter won’t be ready.
Luis Garcia – Luis Garcia is a veteran of 13 MLB seasons, most recently
with the Angels. He turned 39 in
January, so the Mets’ investment of $1.75M with incentives increasing to
possibly $3M is not going to be spent to make Syracuse better. Garcia will pitch for the big-league club or
he will be DFA’ed. Only a disastrous spring
would lead to the latter result, so I am projecting Garcia to be part of the
active roster when the regular season begins.
Garcia is a ground ball pitcher (~50%) due to his great sinker which
should synchronize nicely with the Mets’ improved infield defense.
All the rest – I don’t
see Bryan Hudson, Joey Gerber, Alex Carillo, or Austin Warren breaking camp
with the Mets. They are all guys that David
Stearns took a flyer on to add depth, and the opportunity for one of them to
make the team will come from some breakthrough modification to their mechanics from
the pitching lab data or some new pitch introduced by the pitching staff that
perfectly complements their other stuff.
What is meaningful for this group is the depth that they will have in
Syracuse.
Relief Pitchers not on the 40-man roster but with spring
training invites: RHP Adbert Alzolay, RHP Mike Baumann, RHP Nick
Burdi, RHP Daniel Duarte, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Ryan Lambert, LHP Nate
Lavender
Craig Kimbrell – Much
like Garcia, Kimbrell will pitch for the big-league club or he will be DFA’ed. He has a great history as a closer for Atlanta
and had strong seasons for San Diego and Boston after that. Since 2021 though, Kimbrell has lost some of
what made him great. His ERA and WHIP
have increased and his K rate has gone down.
A late season run with Houston made him attractive enough for the Mets
to take a chance that he has something left in the tank.
Nate Lavender – Lavender
was a favorite amongst Mack’s writers before he was lost in a rule 5 draft two
years ago. Bad for him but good for the
Mets, he didn’t meet the rule 5 requirements with Tampa, so they had to give
him back. Lavender is a lefty reliever
with great stuff and when we last saw him with the Binghamton and Syracuse
teams in 2023, he compiled a 2.98 ERA with 86 strikeouts in 54 innings
pitched. His 2024 season was curtailed
by injury, and that injury was what kept him off the field in 2025 with the
Rays, forcing his return. If his rehab
was successful, he may have a shot.
All the rest – I don’t see Adbert Alzolay, Mike Baumann, Nick Burdi, Daniel Duarte, or Ryan Lambert breaking camp with the Mets. Most of them, like Alzolay, Baumann, Burdi, and Duarte have a MLB pedigree, but a performance record that does not stand out. Once again, the opportunity for one of them to make the team will come from some breakthrough modification to their mechanics from the pitching lab data or some new pitch introduced by the pitching staff that perfectly complements their other stuff. Lambert has looked good in the minors but probably needs more time at the AA/AAA levels to build up his confidence and his repertoire before competing at the MLB level.
To summarize, the large cast of relief pitchers hoping to make the club boils down to two groups with a chance: the elder statesmen looking for a career capper (Kimbrell and Garcia) and the young bucks ready for a career opener (Ross and Lavender). Their performance over the six weeks of spring training is going to make the difference between success and failure. Room is limited on the roster, so only superb springs will get these players where they want to be.
