Righty hurler Nolan McLean had a great rookie season:
12-10, 3.16 ERA, 194 Ks, 1.17 WHIP.
But he briefly pitched EVEN BETTER in 2025:
5-1, 2.06 ERA in 48 innings.
Add both seasons together to give him a number of innings more typical of the 1960s - 1980s, and his numbers are:
17-11, 2.93, 228 innings, 251 Ks, 1.14 WHIP.
That, ladies and gents, is an ACE.
That was after just 226 minor league innings, where he was learning to pitch on the fly, and where he compiled a 3.10 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 241 Ks, with his 2025 minors ERA of 2.45.
Amazing.
Which reminds me of Jonah Tong in 2025, whose 1.43 minors ERA was a full run better than 2025 McLean’s.
Recall that in 2025, Tong was baseball’s minor league pitcher of the year.
Out of 150 minor league teams from AAA to Complex League, Tong was numero uno.
So…
Two messages today:
1) McLean is an ace. Today. Could his 2027 season be Seaver Circa 1969?
2) Don’t give up on Tong. He just might be another Mets ace in 2027.
11 comments:
McLean is not an ace.
Close but no cigar.
SP2, yes
Agree with Mack. McLean is not quite an ace. But I believe that he can still elevate his game up.
Based upon the 2026 numbers, if Tong was still a prospect I would have him listed as a tie for second. Concerns about the secondary pitches and the change from a more ground-out/strike-out pitcher to a fly-out pitcher and the number of home runs.
Was Seaver an SP-1 in 1967 on a team with a good staff? pProbably an SP-2. In 1968, Koosman was the SP-1. Seaver was probably SP-1.in 1969, Seaver was SP-1++. He progressed.
Seaver threw 251 innings in 1967. McLean has 228 innings in 2025-26. His second half ERA was 2.61.
Lastly, more runs are scored in baseball now than in 1967. The median team in 1967 scored 100 fewer runs than in 2026..and that was with giving up more unearned runs in the 60s than in 2026. The median team in 1967 hit just 114 HRs, but that jumps to 183 in 2026. Hitters nowadays are bigger and more dangerous. So, ERAs overall are higher.
Why can’t McLean move to SP-1 in 2027?
He was an SP-2 this year. I see SP-1 next year.
I think that McLean has the stuff to be an ace. His performance numbers are not there yet because he still suffers from bad innings. If he can understand what causes him to have those blow up innings and remedy it, he can take his place at the top.
Part of bad innings is facing more powerful hitters. Tough when almost everyone hits HRs these days. Very few Al Weis types.
Nothing wrong with progression
Hey!
Al hit six home runs
Al never hit the weight room, to be sure. Lots of players in the 1960s hit the gin mills, though
Agree with Paul on this. Think the term ACE isn't sufficiently well defined. McLean has the makings of a top of the rotation pitcher. True ACEs are invariably in Cy Young conversations over reasonably extended periods of time. I am not sure that we should say that Misirowoski is a potential Ace, though, with a very different arsenal of pitches than McLean, he too is likely a top of the rotation starter.
As for Tong, he is still very much a work in progress as he continues to adjust to his new release point and its impact on his pitches. He's still developing command of those pitches. And I do think he should reduce the head tilt for the obvious reason, that even if it deceives hitters, it is worse for him because his eyes capture the target on a poor and misleading angle as a result and that has to impact control. Just try it yourself throwing a ball against a wall. Notice a difference in accuracy with level eyes and with significantly unlevel eyes. He's dogged and not risking injury to the extent he did before
Speaking of which, I hoped everyone saw the consequences on display of an extreme over the top release in the better of the Megill boys last night. Lack of control, all pitches on one plane, the difficulty of commanding the curve, and I assure you, not unrelated, his inability to maintain balance through to the finish of his motion. He got the job done, but it's a struggle. Had Tong not changed his release point, I had suggested that he be a two pitch back of the bullpen pitcher. Even then it is not a good bet long term. He is a much better bet now.
And just one other note. The best over the top pitcher of all time was probably Sandy Koufax (who had a GREAT 12/6 sharp breaking curve ball to complement his fastball. But he is in the HOF because of greatness that only lasted 6 years. This is not a healthy way to throw a baseball at speed.
I have a good friend who is a golf coach in the UK and a movement specialist. He was just put in touch with someone he described as a genius baseball pitching instructor in Florida who just spent 3/4 million dollars on new materials for his academy. My friend is going to introduce him to me, and I hope to visit him sometime during the winter months and speak to him about pitching, pitching labs, the biology of biomechanics and the overall anatomy related to pitching. And maybe be able to do a short series on all of that; certainly an interview or two.
He apparently has just taken up golf himself so we can see where that leads
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