Milwaukee won 29 more games than the Mets in 2026 on an estimated payroll of roughly $142 million to New York’s $358 million. The difference extends beyond one season. Over three years, the Brewers reached October every year and won a pennant. The Mets made one postseason run and reached the National League Championship Series.
The comparison raises a practical question for New York. What did Milwaukee have across its roster that the Mets could not consistently replace when players got hurt or underperformed?
Three seasons of results
Payroll figures are October draft estimates. Postseason results are stated through the original comparison date.
Where the production came from
Milwaukee’s selected six included Jacob Misiorowski, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell and William Contreras. Together they produced 26.9 FanGraphs wins above replacement. The Mets’ selected six produced 17.1 fWAR. The cost comparison uses annual average value (AAV) for both groups, which differs from the listed 2026 salaries used for Milwaukee in Part 1.
The valuation benchmark is illustrative. Figures reflect the original draft’s rounded estimates for six players per club.
Depth and the next wave of talent
The Mets had a version of Milwaukee’s affordable core starting to emerge. Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and A.J. Ewing accounted for about 11.8 fWAR at roughly $3.1 million in the October analysis. That gives New York players it can build around at a manageable cost. It also raises the importance of the roles around them. An injury to a starter tests the quality of the next pitcher. A weak bat in a regular lineup spot tests whether the next player can improve the offense while handling the position.
Control affects how long each club can benefit. Milwaukee’s guarantee with Chourio runs through 2031 and includes club options for 2032 and 2033. The October estimate put Misiorowski under club control through 2031 and Turang through 2029.
New York has years of control over its emerging young group and long-term commitments to Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. That combination gives the Mets room to improve the supporting roster through both internal promotions and external acquisitions.
The October prospect snapshot identified five Brewers prospects graded 50 future value or higher by FanGraphs, led by Jesús Made at 65. The Mets had two at 50 or higher, Jefferson Rojas and Elian Peña. A future-value grade is a scouting estimate. The decision that matters this winter is whether a prospect is ready to cover a major-league role on the date the club needs him.
The offseason implication
Milwaukee has had more ways to replace innings and position-player production without relying on a single acquisition. It still has injury risk and uneven depth in some roles. New York has the financial capacity to buy coverage where its pipeline is thin. The immediate work is to go position by position, identify who can carry the load and decide where a dependable second option is worth paying for.
The Mets already have expensive stars and promising inexpensive players. Turning that combination into a contender requires enough dependable production between them. Part 5 looks at how much of that roster took shape under David Stearns.
16 comments:
This is embarrassing 😳
The $/fWAR comparison is stunning. It really highlights how small market (small budget) teams need to focus on value in their personnel decisions. The Mets have not had to worry as much about costs, and they have overpaid for the production they get from their roster.
We can see this playing out in real-time this week. The Brewers developed Misiorowski - the Mets are developing McLean - but the Mets will try to buy Skubal as well at top dollar per WAR (paying top of market prices for top of market player ala Soto and Lindor).
Fortunately, Cohen can afford this and it will not matter: AS LONG AS THEY WIN.
A big part of the wins disparity is that the Brewers have played many more games against weaker teams than the Mets. The Mets 47 win deficit as compared to the Brewers over the past 3 years might have entirely vanished if instead, the Mets were in the Brewers’ division, and the Brewers were in the Mets’ division. I want that to change. Rotate teams thru different divisions to eliminate the Brewers playing in a AAAA division, while the Mets play a tougher schedule, year in and year out.
Why should the Brewers spend more, when they have it so easy? They don’t have to. Because the Mets have to, they have to take more spending risks. Which is why they spend so much more.
One other point to make: the Mets have, according to the Mets top prospect list currently, Jefferson with a 55 rating, and five other guys with a 50 rating.
Great teams flourish against all or most teams
The Mets aren't currently great
The Brewers are
Pen drop
Wake me up this time next year and we will see if these guys pan out
True, the Brewers are clearly better now, even with healthy Soto and Lindor, but RVH had made a 3 year comparison.
In 2024 and 2025, the Brewers won a total of 16 more games than the Mets. Had they switched divisions for those two years, however, the Mets IMO would have won more than the Brewers.
i am not as confident in Jefferson, Pitre, and Voit as i was in Benge and Ewing, but i feel quite close on those two who have become stars to the current three prospects. i think all three will do well by mid year...if 2027 MLB starts by then.
As I was reading, I was sharing Tom’s opinion about the Pirates and Reds. The Mets had the Marlins. The Brewers had the Cubs and Cardinals (that were rebuilding) the Mets had the Phillies and the Braves. Just like in the West where the Dodgers enjoy the Giants and Rockies while having the DBacks as a pest and the Padres as formidable.
But, the Brewers became a winning team in 2018. Since then, they have tried to reach the top. The Dodgers first won in 2013, and had tried many years to reach the top. Had the Mets not had the pressure of Cohen’s five year dream, they could have rebuilt better. Instead, Polanco’s and Montas’s kept taking youngsters’ place. That has to stop. No Ty France. No one year band aid. Let your kids play somewhere besides Syracuse.
i agree. especially if there is a strike and Jefferson, Voit, and Pitre get more playing time in AAA while major leaguers walk the picket line.
i think the non-division teams the Brewers play annually are a little easier than the Mets' non division opponents, too.
My alternate solution? Each team's 2027 schedule should be determined as follows: the Mets face teams in 162 games exactly the same 2026 record as the Brewers. The Mets simply should not face a tougher schedule than the Brewers, or the White Sox, or the Twins. Hard to articulate this quickly, but totally level-set 2027 schedules based on 2026 results.
The current top Mets prospects need as much play time as they can get in 2027
We need to see some AAA dominance.
Question: can players on the 40-man play overseas or in the Mexican Leagues while there is a strike???
Please, please, don't go sign Alex Bohm to play first. That would be worse than a band-aid. A used band-aid.
didn't he have an OPS at around 600?
Jefferson has to be out on the 40 man. If there is a strike he doesn’t play.
The OPS was bad, but his OOPS was worse. "Oops, I pissed off my fans"; "Oops, I pissed off my teammates"; "Oops, I had my worst slump at the time my team needed me most".
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