The Keepers: - #15 - 3B - Jefry Marte

                15.        3B         Jefry Marte 

2-1-10: - Jefry Marte – Marte rode the prospect train of Wilmer Flores last year and proved he has a long way to go before he will be ranked again in the top 10 list. Marte makes fielding a ground ball into a contact sport. Watch for him to remain in Savannah until he gets his defense down, or until the Mets wash their hands of him.

7-12-10: - Marte is one of the… now… many 16-year olds that the Mets rush off to the States to work with in hopes of developing someone they can send to Queens as fast as IF Ruben Tejada and P Jenrry Mejia got there.

The good news was the fact that Jefry was playing next to another 16-year old, SS Wilmer Flores, that got most of the press and kept the pressure off of him.

The bad news was the fact that Jefry was playing next to another 16-year old, SS Wilmer Flores, who made him look like a second-class citizen.

Add to that the fact that Marte plays defense like an antelope in highway traffic, and, needless to say, it’s been a slow start for the prospect.

The just turned 19-year old went 3-5 Saturday night, that included two home runs, one triple and four RBIs His season stats at Savannah are modestly: .239/.319/.384/.703, 6-HR, 37-RBI, .145-ISOP, .283-BABIP.

Opinion:  Work slowly with this kid… let him finish his second season at Savannah and give him a shot at St. lucie in 2011. The Mets have to keep trying to find a position for someone that simply can’t play well in the field. Some think he will eventually move to third base while others say right field. Bottom line… no one is going to play in Citi Field that can’t play excellent defense at either position. Marte is a future trade chip in a deal that is years away.

Marte was signed as an international free agent in 2007.

In late January 2007, Baseball America listed Marte as the 27th top Mets prospect, saying: “very raw but has big power potential”

In 2008, Marte played a full season with the GCL Mets, hitting .325/.398/.532/.930 in 154 at bats, which included 14 doubles 3 triples, 4 home runs, 24 RBIs (in 44 games), and 19 errors.

2010 Forecast: Let’s face it, Marte has no future as a Mets’ third baseman, and the sooner they move him to either the outfield or first base, the sooner all of us will be able to start analyzing him at that position. Most minor league organizations don’t like to screw around with someone defensively before they get their act together offensively. Marte did neither in Savannah this year, so expect him back as a Sand Gnat, and still playing third base as a teenager.

In 2010, Marte repeated Savannah: .264/.333/.401/.735, 329-AB, 6-HR, 44-RBI, 65-K

3-31-11: - 2011 Forecast:  Hard to say at this point. Marte had a better season last year, when he played as a 19-year old. It was nowhere near prospect status, but it was better. They say he has no future as a third baseman, which I never understand why then he’s still playing there. On paper, he’s scheduled to start the 2011 season at St. Lucie. Yup… third base.

4-21-11: - We talked last night about C Francesco Pena and the possibility of him finally coming into age. Well, let’s not forget about 3B Jefry Marte, who is playing Lucy as a 20-year old. Two home runs tonight and a seasonal BA of .340. Reminded me a lot like a young, and clean, Manny Ramirez when he played in Savannah. Plays a very bad third base abd is another Met prospect projected to play somewhere other than they are playing now.

4-22-11: - What I found very interesting was the raves being broadcast by the Charlotte announcers about the defensive genius of… Jefry Marte. Yes, that’s the same guy that almost broke the all-time error total in A-Ball for an infielder… held by Derek Jeter, by the way. You have to assume they know what they are talking about, but they said his defense this year has been “pro-like”. I assume this means Marte worked on it in the off-season. Very interesting. Lots of power here with a poor defense tag. Hmm.

6-23-11: - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/futures-game/2011/2611986.html  -  Major League Baseball and Baseball America are proud to announce the rosters for the 2011 All-Star Futures Game, which will be held July 10 in Phoneix. The game features a United States-World matchup, with two 25-man rosters made up of 10 pitchers, two catchers, four corner infielders, four middle infielders and five outfielders. - Jefry Marte, 3b  Mets  High Class A
 St. Lucie (Florida State)  Dominican Republic - After taking two years to get through low Class A, Marte has shown the offensive potential that got him signed in 2007. He's also starting to tap into his raw power

7-7-11: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/7/2263375/2011-mlb-all-star-futures-game-roster-review-world-team-hitters  - Jefry Marte, 3B, New York Mets: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007. Hitting .279/.343/.398 with five homers, 28 walks, 55 strikeouts, and 10 steals in 294 at-bats for High-A St. Lucie. Scouts like his raw power and strong throwing arm, but he's error-prone with the glove and hasn't fully blossomed with the bat yet. Age 20. Major League ETA: 2014.

2012 Draft - Rising Pick - C - Josh Elander

                                        Josh Elander:

7-9-11: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6002 - Josh Elander, C/OF, TCU - A sturdy athlete with a strong, compact frame, Elander has been a promising prospect before he stepped onto Texas Christian's campus as part of the same class that included Matt Purke. He was the Horned Frogs' second leading hitter each of the past two springs, and has more power potential than his seven career collegiate home runs indicate.

7-19-11: - http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2011/6/29/2250656/early-look-at-2012#comments - Josh “Jake” Elander, TCU, 6’2 1/2 210, R/R, have seen this young man since days at the TOS event in Cary. Strong arm and durable body with some pop in his bat and power to LF, runs decent for a catcher, could be a quality catcher or backup at the ML level quickly.

10-8-11: - http://mlbdraftguide.com/1/2011/10/09/josh-elander-2012-draft-profile  - When Mike Zunino backed out of playing with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team this summer, Josh Elander was called upon to take his place.  Elander is a solid batting prospect.  He has shown good plate discipline since arriving at TCU.  While he has hit only 7 home runs in his two college seasons, there is power potential in his bat.  Elander runs well for a catcher, stealing 20 bases in 28 attempts at TCU and running a 6.78 60 in high school. Elander has, at least, average tools defensively.  His recorded pop times in high school were from 1.90-1.96. Overall, Elander is an athletic catcher with good offensive potential.  Projections have his draft position from late first round to the third round.  His showing behind the plate this year will, in large part, determine where he is drafted in June.

Baseball: - Maury Wills, TJS, Mark Lemke, WS Ratings, Intentional Walks

Maury Wills was such a longshot to make it in the Major Leagues that Topps turned down the opportunity to sign him to a $5 baseball card contract. Maury Wills is a true Los Angeles Dodgers legend. The Dodgers won their first championship in Los Angeles in Wills' first season and went on to win two more titles during his first tenure with the team (1959-1966), with Wills being the team captain from 1963-1966. Wills made the All Star Game in five separate seasons and received the very first All Star Game Most Valuable Player Award ever in 1962! That same season, Wills beat out Willie Mays to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award. In 1962, Wills also won his second Gold Glove at shortstop and set a new Modern Era (post-1900) Major League record for the most stolen bases in a single season with 104 (the first player ever to steal over 100 bases in the Modern Era). Wills' revival of the stolen base is probably his greatest legacy. Before he stole 50 bases in 1960, no National Leaguer had stolen 50 bases since 1923! Players like Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman were all inspired by Wills. However, while Wills was setting records and showing up on Most Valuable Player ballots there was one place he was conspicuously absent - packs of Topps baseball cards! Wills did not have a Topps baseball card until 1967, nearly a decade into his Major League career! For a card company that prided itself on having basically every Major Leaguer in the game, Wills was a notable exception. What makes it even more notable is why Topps did not have a Maury Wills card. You see, Topps did not feel Wills was worth paying the $5 it would have taken to sign to a baseball card contract!  http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/10/did-topps-turn-down-a-deal-on-maury-wills-because-he-was-such-a-bad-prospect.html

Tommy John was created to treat a full tear of that ligament, not a partial. But around 2000, about twenty years since the surgery was first performed, more partial tears began to be steered towards the procedure. If the procedure treated full tears so well, why not try it with a partial? The surgery now has a high rate of success (85% or better), so the invasiveness and lengthy rehab now seems worth the risk for either type of tear. Two years post-surgery, a successfully rehabbed pitcher will report at least pre-injury strength, if not better. For a pitcher approaching their mid-30s, like Lackey, that increased strength may extend their playing career. Lackey is signed with the Sox until he’s roughly 36. If everything goes right with his rehab, that gives him that best-ever strength in the year his contract runs out. http://www.sportsgirlkat.com/2011/10/26/john-lackey-boston-red-sox-tommy-john-surgery/#more-2125

Mark Lemke is the prime example of a player who came out of nowhere to lead his team offensively in the playoffs. During the 1991 season, the Braves second baseman hit a paltry .234/.305/.312. His wOBA was .279 and he managed a wRC+ of just 70. Not typically the stats of a future postseason star. But in the 1991 World Series, Lemke was the Braves’ most-potent offensive force, batting .417/.462/.708 in 24 at bats over six games. In three games he batted seventh; in the other three he batted eighth. The next most-productive Braves hitter in the Series was Terry Pendleton, who hit .367/.424/.667 in 30 at bats over seven games. Pendleton hit second in all but one World Series game; in the other, he batted third.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-napoli-stands-alone-at-the-bottom-of-the-order

Entering last night’s Game 6, the Cardinals-Rangers matchup was on pace to become the lowest-rated World Series ever. Fox Sports’s coverage averaged an 8.3 national rating through five games, according to Nielsen. The World Series in 2008 (Rays-Phillies) and 2010 (Rangers-Giants) are tied for the lowest rating (8.4). But this year’s Series is expected to avoid a low-water mark because interest tends to peak as a series runs longer. The disappointing numbers were jarring enough to have CNBC business reporter Darren Rovell take to Twitter with a poll asking why baseball has a ratings issue. (His options: “wrong teams,’’ “the broadcast team,’’ “not a baseball fan,’’ “too much competition,’’ and “late start times.’’) http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2011/10/28/lowly_world_series_wins_back_to_back_matchups_with_nfl

The problem is not that anyone watching was robbed of a dramatic hit; it's that anyone watching was robbed of the prospect of a dramatic hit. Most of watching baseball is waiting for something to happen. But the waiting's okay, because we know the waiting might be rewarded with something exciting. And then along comes an intentional walk, spoiling it for everyone. Look, the fundamental problem with the intentional walk is that no baseball players are actually involved. Sure, the batter stands there while the pitcher lobs a few plateward and the catcher catches them. But far more than anything else that happens on the field, the players are divorced from the action. http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/25/2512355/intentional-walks-the-scourge-of-the-game

Cutnpaste: - Juan Urbina, Wilmer Flores, Johan Santana, Collin McHugh, Blue Walls

10-27-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/10/mmo-top-20-mets-prospects -17-juan-urbina-lhp-exclusive-interview.html -   In his last 7 GS of 2011, Juan Urbina went 4-3 with an ERA of 4.00, giving up 36 hits in 36 IP, while striking out 34 and walking 8. Although the overall numbers weren’t so great for the year, it was clearly not a lost season for Urbina. He fought through adversity to turn the season from a negative, into a positive, and learned from the experience. Urbina, now 18, has a clean, effortless delivery and at 6’2″, shows excellent mechanics and good command. His fastball and change-up are his best pitches, though the curveball still needs refinement. If he can sharpen his breaking-ball and miss some bats with it, he can move quickly through the system

10-26-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/7132/mets-minors/a-look-into-the-future-top-shortstop-prospects   -  Wilmer Flores -  DOB: 8/6/1991  Birthplace: Valencia, Venezuela  Height: 6’3”   Weight: 175  R/R -  I know it is not fair to write off a player at the age of 19 (cough, cough, cough Nelson Cruz) but I have to. By now, Flores is supposed to be Detroit Tigers first basemen Miguel Cabrera. He’s supposed to be knocking over 20 homeruns, showing great plate discipline. But it’s just not there yet. I think Flores is not responsible for the disappointment. You can blame publications like Baseball America for over-hyping someone, as they did with Alex Escobar and Fernando Martinez. Flores had a pretty decent season at high-A St. Lucie, hitting 9 homeruns while driving in 81 runs. He hit .269, which was a bit disappointing. That’s all I really have to say about him. I hope he proves me wrong. He will not be at shortstop if he makes it to the big leagues. He’ll be in a corner outfield spot due to his lack of speed and mobility. He’ll be 19 at the start of the 2012 season, presumably back in St. Lucie. This will be a huge test to determine if he is indeed the future of the Mets.

Johan Santana: Nobody knows how healthy he is, which means he’s staying put for now. Should Santana come back and be solid and healthy in the first half, you could see the Mets trying to deal him if they aren’t in contention. Even if they were, they might pull the trigger on a trade to free up salary. This bears watching, but not until June and July.  http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/2011/10/25/mets-have-precious-few-pieces-to-trade

10-26-11: - http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/10/26/colemans-corner-mets-position-players-shining-in-arizona-sun   - At St. Lucie, Collin McHugh pitched in 9 games, making 6 starts. He went 1-2 with a 6.31 ERA while the league hit .318 against him. Not great. He was then bumped to Double AA Binghamton and again started slow. At the All-Star break, he was again 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA, giving up 39 hits in 37 innings with a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But manager Wally Backman saw something he liked in McHugh, worked with him, and he took off from there. After the Double AA All-Star break, McHugh was undefeated – 7-0 with a 1.53 ERA – yielding just 34 hits over 47 innings, with a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (54K’s-11BB). But McHugh has had his problems in Arizona. He’s 1-2 again in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance – but this time with a hefty 8.18 ERA, surrendering 18 hits in 11 innings

This morning, Matthew Cerrone reported that the Mets have finally discussed making the outfield walls blue. It makes sense; I personally think the orange foul poles clash with the mossy green outfield walls. Making the outfield walls blue could be the latest effort to Metsify Citi Field after many fans have complained that it was too reminiscent of Ebbets Field. Me? I was just happy that the Mets Hall of Fame museum wasn’t hidden anymore. Efforts have been made to pay tribute to Mets history over the past two seasons; the installation of the entrance shadows, the ’69 and ’86 teams being commemorated, and my favorite feature: the Topps baseball cards with that day’s starting lineup. Since the Mets can’t rebuild Citi Field to look like a giant blue cupcake, the least they can is make the outfield walls blue like Shea…because I miss the giant blue cupcake. http://itsallmetstome.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/the-metsification-of-citi-field

Baseball: - Johnny Bench, Patient Hitters, Mike Napoli, Jurickson Profar, More Theo

Johnny Bench is arguably the best catcher to play the game of baseball. During a 16-year career, Bench set a standard that will probably never be eclipsed. He was National League Rookie of the Year in 1968, the league’s Most Valuable Player in 1970 and 1972, and a World Series MVP in 1976. Bench also won 10 Gold Gloves as an anchor of a Cincinnati Reds team that won back-to-back World Series titles in 1975-76. The leader of The Big Red Machine, he was named to baseball’s All-Century Team in 1999. http://www2.hickoryrecord.com/sports/2011/oct/26/63-johnny-bench-still-not-bench-ar-1538937

I for one always assumed that, on average, players with higher on-base percentages (OBP) would see significantly more pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). It seemed intuitive that higher OBP was the result of walking more and that resulted from greater patience at the plate. My assumption was that variation in OBP should be explained to a large degree by P/PA. A few weeks ago I learned that isn't the case. Generally speaking, only a small percentage of the variation in OBP can be explained by P/PA. To confirm for myself, I looked at all qualified batters between 2002-2009. Sure enough, the correlation between the two metrics was .426 with an r2 of .18. Now, that's roughly 20%, but much lower than I assumed. So much for assumptions. To dig in deeper I ran some correlations between P/PA for a number of other metrics, just to get a better sense of what outcomes are driven by or related to working pitchers. Here are the results:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/10/26/2513194/are-patient-hitters-better-hitters#storyjump

Mike Napoli was drafted by the Anaheim Angels in the 17th round in 2000, from high school in Cooper City, Florida (population 27,939 in the 2000 census, median family income $78,172, part of the South Florida Metro). He was assigned to Butte in the Pioneer League after signing, but was limited to just 10 games by a back injury, hitting .231/.400/.308 in those contests. He got off to a late start again in 2001 and played 50 games in A-ball, 43 for Low-A Cedar Rapids (.232/.341/.406) and seven for High-A Rancho Cucamonga (.200/.429/.350). He wasn't really on the radar as a prospect at this point, except among the most fanatic Angels fans.  http://www.minorleagueball.com

When projecting Profar in his prime, I can’t help but see him as a better version of White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez. With Ramirez producing back-to-back 4+ WAR seasons, the sky is really the limit for Jurickson Profar considering his on base skills should be significantly improved over Ramirez. Additionally, Ramirez’ power numbers look more impressive on paper than in reality as his huge plate appearance totals add counting numbers. Profar should produce higher wOBA totals prior to his prime years with room for more. This leaves Profar a 5-6 WAR player for me leaving him a top-4 shortstop in all of baseball.  For me, the conservative approach would be to label Jurickson Profar an above average regular with multiple all-star seasons. A more aggressive assessment would leave the Rangers shortstop a franchise player worthy of building an organization around. If not for Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar would rank as the best prospect I scouted this season. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jurickson-profar-the-next-rangers-star

Epstein has earned enough accolades that I needn’t recount his qualifications here; hell, we already wrote a book about them. Suffice it to say that Theo is a top-tier talent both in his ability to evaluate and acquire talent and in his skill at instituting a self-sustaining program of player development; he’s also among the best at dealing with the media, and he’ll be sure to move quickly to get the late-adopting Cubs an equivalent to Carmen, the information management system whose development he oversaw in Boston. What’s more, if Werth was valued by Washington for his potential as a tool for recruiting player talent, then Epstein has the same significance to Chicago. His recruiting powers are paying even more immediate dividends, as Padres GM Jed Hoyer and AGM Jared McLeod will be getting the gang back together under Epstein in Chicago, with Hoyer serving as GM. The round-the-clock business of running a baseball operations department has become too demanding for any one man, so one of the most important measures of a modern GM is the quality of the co-workers with whom he chooses to work. As Epstein plays Mark Shapiro to Hoyer’s Chris Antonetti, the two will continue to add to an assortment of experienced and innovative assistants, giving the Cubs a braintrust that one day might make Epstein himself dispensable.  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15366

FLASH: - METS NAME TOM GOODWIN FIRST BASE COACH

METS NAME TOM GOODWIN FIRST BASE COACH


FLUSHING, N.Y., October 29, 2011 – The New York Mets today announced Tom Goodwin as first base coach.

Goodwin, 43, finished his fourth year with the Boston Red Sox organization last season and his third as the organization’s Minor League Outfield and Base Running Coordinator.  He coached Lowell (A) of the New York-Penn League in 2008, where the Spinners finished first with a 40-33 record. Goodwin also managed the Lewisville Lizards of the independent Continental Baseball League in 2007.

Originally drafted out of Fresno State University in the first round of the 1989 Amateur Draft by Los Angeles (NL), Goodwin played 14 seasons in the majors and finished with a .268 (1,029-3,846) lifetime batting average.  The outfielder and native of Fresno, CA played 1,288 games for the Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs.  Goodwin recorded four seasons of at least 50 steals, with a career-best 66 swipes in 1996 for Kansas City and finished his career with 369 stolen bases. From 1995-2000, he never finished lower than seventh in the American League in steals.

Goodwin won an Olympic Gold Medal in 1988 as a member of Team USA’s baseball squad.   

Mack’s 25-man: - LHSP Johan Santana

Look, let’s be serious and pragmatic at the same time. There’s a big ass contract here so we might as well give the guy a chance to pitch.

It is Johan Santana. A 50% Johan Santana is better than some of the guys this team has tried to sell us on in the last couple of years.

A lot of Mets fans thought they were going to see Santana pitch at the end of last season, but that was never in the plans. They did send him to pitch here in Savannah during their playoffs and only Savannah would punch out no additional attendance to see him start the game (no “Two For Tuesday”). The Sand Gnats actually asked him not to come back for a second game which spoke volumes to his rehab progress.

Still, as I said earlier, he is Johan Santana and, for that reason only, he’s my opening day pitcher. I mean, like, what’s the option?

My guess here is that Santana will go hot and cold during the first half of the season. I’m figuring in the 4.25 ERA range, but, he will become a trade factor once  Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia start knocking on the fall door. The Mets will eat the majority of his remaining salary and deal him off for a prospect.

Was it a great trade. Hell yes. Sure, Phil Humber showed some spunk last season and Deolis Guerra is supposedly being reborn in the minors as a reliever, but the Mets lost nothing when they obtained one of the most exciting players in the game.

Moving On Without Reyes and Wright - PART 2

Part 1 - http://tinyurl.com/FutureMetsP1

So, the 2012 season has begun. In Part 1, I talked about the offseason moves made in preparation for this year, including letting Jose Reyes leave and trading David Wright to Colorado.

The biggest focus for the team has been and is investing in as much young talent as possible. Assuming the moves in Part 1 have been made, the Mets would have high profile prospects Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Kalish, Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Brad Holt all at AAA Buffalo. Newly-acquired Nolan Arenado and Zach Wheeler would start the year at AA Binghamton.

I expect that Pomeranz and Kalish would be the first two promoted as both have already played in the majors and both help to fill areas of serious need for the Mets. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to what prospects will be ready and when. What I do believe will happen is that Pomeranz, Harvey, and Familia will all be ready to pitch in the major league rotation at some point next year, giving the Mets an abundance of pitching. I think Mejia will see time in NYC next year, but with his injury will be relegated to the pen while his arm gets healthy.

I’m counting on Reese Havens fulfilling his potential and becoming the starting 2B at some point next summer, moving Justin Turner to the bench. Ditto for Grandal replacing Josh Thole. Kalish and Nieuwenhuis are both wild cards given their injuries in 2011. I’m going to be optimistic here and say both will be healthy in the spring and both ready for a call-up mid-season. As mentioned above, Kalish gets the nod first. Finally, of the prospects I mentioned above I think Brad Holt will be up last, only getting the call towards the end of the year. I expect him to take almost all of 2012 to gain confidence in AAA. He has the talent but is new to the bullpen. He seemed to flourish last year when moved to relief, I just would not rush him to the majors. By the end of 2012 though, I think Holt, Mejia, and Brothers could all be in the bullpen together and potentially giving the Mets their own version of the 1990 Reds Nasty Boys.

Ike Davis should continue his development into a top tier 1B, providing an outstanding glove and a power bat. I expect Murphy to play average defense at 3B but also continue his hitting success. Ruben Tejada will be under a lot of scrutiny replacing Jose Reyes. My hope is that the fans realize that he is not Jose and let him be what he is. He’ll provide good defense (some might argue better than Jose), continue hitting for a decent average, get on base well, and see his power improve slightly. He'll run well but not steal bases. On Lucas Duda, I’ve written about him previously (http://tinyurl.com/dudafans) and to reiterate, I think he will continue hitting and become a .900 OPS, 30-HR, 100 RBI middle-of-the-order bat. I think his defense in the OF will suffer and he will prove to be best-suited for 1B for the long-term.

If at the deadline the Mets are out of contention and staring up at Philly, Atlanta, et. al., the team would be wise to trade Bronson Arroyo and try and rid themselves of Johan Santana and Jason Bay. With the aforementioned pitching prospects making their way up the ranks, Arroyo is an obvious choice to be dealt to a contender. Moving Santana and Bay of course assumes that both are healthy (especially Johan) and performing closer to their career norms. Given the salary owed both and their advanced age (in baseball terms at least) neither figure to be part of the next Mets playoff push. To move them, the team will likely have to get creative and eat salary. It’s even possible that assuming large portions of both contracts could net the Mets at least 2 useful prospects (1 for each)…not necessarily foundation pieces, but commodities that could prove useful as offseason trade bait to sweeten other deals.

The way to get the salary relief needed from removing Bay and Santana from the rolls is to look to contenders looking for veterans to help in a playoff run who want them cheaply. To do this, I would first offer to pay the remaining portions of their 2012 salaries. This money is already a sunk cost and I don’t see how a team would acquire either and pay them for the rest of ’12 AND ’13. Assuming 2 months remaining in the season at the time of a trade, what this means for the Mets is eating about 13.3M (Bay 5.3 + Santana 8) for 2012. It’s less than they took on in cutting Perez and Castillo in 2011. By doing this, the Mets would be in a position to ask for decent talent in return. As both are owed a total of 41.5M for 2013, the Mets can offer to take on a portion of that as well. I would offer to pay half (20.75) under the condition that these payments be made over 2 years – 2013 and 2014.

The acquiring teams might be more likely to accept such terms if the Mets increased the amount paid while taking into consideration the present value of the dollars involved as well as the fact that they (and not the Mets) would be on the hook for buying out the 2014 options on each player. For the sake of argument, let’s round the total number up to 24M, or 12M per year in 2013 and 2014 each paid to move on from Bay and Santana a year and a half early.

This might seem like a lot, but with a greatly reduced payroll in 2013 and 2014 (more on this in Part 3), $12M per year for the flexibility that comes with almost $30M in 2013 salary relief will seem like a bargain. For the teams acquiring them, Jason Bay at $8M and Santana for under $13M are a lot more attractive than at their current deals. Teams on the brink of winning could potentially be getting a bargain in adding these all-star talents ‘on the cheap’. On the flip side, if the Mets are actually in the race in 2012 and Bay and Santana are contributing, there is no harm in holding onto them and then attempting to deal them under similar conditions next offseason. I would still deal Arroyo, however.

I would expect the lineup in September to feature –

Ca – Grandal

1B – Davis

2B – Havens

3B – Murphy

SS – Tejada

OF – Kalish

OF – Nieuwenhuis/Pagan

OF – Duda

SP1 – Dickey

SP2 – Niese

SP3 – Pomeranz

SP4 – Harvey

SP5 – Familia

With Mejia recovering from injury, I would only expect him to appear out of the bullpen for the 2012 Mets. As mentioned earlier, I would also expect Holt to join Mejia and Brothers in the pen. A displaced Dillon Gee could also prove to be a very valuable reliever. You can see the team starting to come together at this point, although not complete. Arenado and Wheeler could both be September call-ups, I just don’t think they’ll see much regular playing time until 2013.

Heading into 2012, the Mets will have a ‘leaner’ approach. Although familiar names are leaving in this scenario, the development of the team’s young (and potential core) players will give fans excitement and reason to root for the Mets. When the season ends and the Mets are looking at their most pivotal offseason in years, they will be well-positioned with a solid young core to build around, only a few positional holes left to fill, and A LOT of money to spend.

In the final installment, I’ll go over the potential 2012-13 offseason moves and bring the entire picture into focus, taking a look at what the 2013 (and beyond) Mets could look like.

The Keepers: - #14 - RHSP - Domingo Tapia

            14.      SP     Domingo Tapia

9-10-10: Tapia was named the winner of the Sterling Award, as the top player in 2010 for the GCL Mets. He went 4-3, 3.45, 10-G, 25-R, 18-ER, 49-H, 37.0-IP, 10-BB, 29-K

7-5-11: - We follow prospects here and we love to report good news, but every ballplayer (even prospects) have bad days. It’s part of their maturing process. It’s also why there are so many levels in the minors. SP Domingo Tapia had a night he’d love to forget: 3.2 ip, 11 h, 9/8 r/er, 1/2 bb/k, 2 hr, 4:3:2… but shit happens, and Tapia will rebound from this four games from now.

8-9-11: - From Paul DePodesta – “We’ve actually got a lot of good arms in short season that were here before I got here that are young, young kids, but with power arms and have a chance to come quickly. Guys like (U.S. Virgin Islands native) Akeel Morris, Miller Diaz, Domingo Tapia, there are a handful of them. These are guys who are consistently throwing in the mid-90s, some of them touching high-90s. Tapia is throwing 100 mph this year. Every outing has been in the upper 90s.

54: - SP Domingo Tapia – I probably have Tapia too low. He’s making quite a name for himself this season, throwing at 100 for K-Port. 2012 will be the 5th year in the Mets system for Dom, who will play 2012 as a 21-year old. I have him starting for Savannah next season, but this is a closer in waiting. You give him one more season throwing 100+ heat, plus control on some pitch with sink, and you watch how fast this kid moves. ETA: Projected Mets closer 2014.

9-3-11: - Stock Up – SP Domingo Tapia – Brooklyn got it’s first taste of Domingo last night and they liked what they saw: 6.0-IP. 5-H, 0-R, 6-K, 0-BB, 0.00. Tapia will take his 100MPH show back to Coney Island next spring and is quickly becoming a real viable rotation option in the future.

9-25-11: - Domingo Tapia – Everybody that has seen this kid pitch gets excited real quick. He’s 20-years old, 6-4 and was throwing 100 in Brooklyn earlier this month. Stats for the season: 6-5, 3.38, 56.0-IP, 36-K, 16-BB. Needs lots of work and projects out as a future closer, but will probably start for the Cyclones in 2012.