12/28/12

In Search For An Outfielder – Philadelphia Phillies


In Search For An Outfielder – Philadelphia Phillies

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Miami Marlins – Gorkys Hernandez
Milwaukee Brewers – Khris Davis
Minnesota Twins – None
Oakland Athletics – Grant Green
New York Yankees - None
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the Philadelphia Phillies, who currently have seven (7) outfielders on their 40-man

                Domonic Brown – lefty –  ARB-1 in 2015 – MLB:  187-AB, .235
                Zach Collier – lefty –  pre-ARB -
                Tyson Gillies – lefty –  pre-ARB -
                Ender Inciarte – lefty –
                John Mayberry – righty – ARB-1 in 2014 -  MLB – 441-AB, 14-HR, 46-RBI
                Laynce Nix – lefty – $1,35mil in 2013 – FA-2014 – MLB: 114-AB, .246
                Ben Revere – lefty -  ARB-1 in 2014 –

A fair amount of people that played in the Philadelphia outfield last season are now gone.  We can talk about this team all day but they still will only have one righty in the outfield. In addition, the system is pretty lean and Brown has basically been a dud.

Newly signed Revere and Mayberry will get most of the at-bats. One of the weakest Phillies outfield in years, maybe decades.

Mets target:  None

In Search For An Outfielder – Oakland Athletics



In Search For An Outfielder – Oakland Athletics

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Miami Marlins – Gorkys Hernandez
Milwaukee Brewers – Khris Davis
Minnesota Twins – None
New York Yankees - None
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the Oakland Athletics who currently have eight (8) outfielders on their 40-man squad:

                Yoenis Cespedes – righty – $10.5mil thru 2015 – MLB, 487-AB, .292, 23-82
                Coco Crisp – switch – $7mil for 2013 – FA-2014 – MLB:  455-AB, .259
                Grant Green – righty –   AAA: 524-AB, .296, 15-HR, 75-RBI
                Shane Peterson – lefty – pre-ARB  -   AAA:  .389
                Josh Reddick – lefty –   ARB-1/2014 -  MLB:  611-AB, 32-HR, 85-RBI, .242, RF
                Seth Smith – lefty –  ARB-2 -  MLB:  383-AB, .240, 14-HR, 52-RBI
                Michael Taylor – righty –   pre-ARB -  MLB: 21-AB, AAA:  12-HR, 67-RBI, .287
                Chris Young – righty - $8.7mil through 2013 – FA-2014 – CF –

Free agent losses this off-season include Jonny Gomes Boston) and Collin Cowgill (Mets). Obviously, if someone was available who was more talented than Cowgill, he probably would have already been traded, but this is a team in transition.

2013 looks set with Cespedes, Reddick, Young, and Crisp. Their problem is Crisp  is in the last year of his contract and Young’s deal is just for 2013.

Green, Peterson, and Taylor seem all ready to make the next step.

Mets target:  Grant Green -  Green has made the conversion from SS to CF… right behind him in the system is top prospect Michael Choice. Taylor projects out as either a DH or 1Bman. If I can’t get Green, I pass on both Crisp and Young.

In Search For An Outfielder – New York Yankees


In Search For An Outfielder – New York Yankees

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Miami Marlins – Gorkys Hernandez
Milwaukee Brewers – Khris Davis
Minnesota Twins - None
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the New York Yankees, who currently have seven (7) outfielders on their 40-man squad:

                Zoilo Almonte – switch –  pre-ARB -   AA: 419-AB, 21-70
                Chris Dickerson – lefty –  ARB-1/2014 – MLB, 14-AB – AAA: 266-AB, .316
                Ramon Flores – lefty –  pre-ARB -  A+:   517-AB, .302
                Brett Gardner – lefty – $2.85mil-2013,  ARB-3 – MLB, 31-AB  -
                Curtis Granderson – lefty – $15mil-2013, FA-2014 – MLB,596-AB, 43-106
                Melky Mesa – righty –  pre-ARB -  MLB, 2-AB -  AAA: 126-AB, .230
                Ichiro Suzuki – lefty - $6.6/mil – 2013 & 2014 – MLB – 227-AB, .322

The Yankees are looking for the same thing the Mets need, a strong hitting right handed hitting outfielder.

It looks like 3B Eduardo Nunez will be the 2013 DH.

The resigning of Suzuki to a two year deal teams him up with Granderson, but the departure of Nick Swisher now has the Yankees bidding against the Mets for who is left out there.

Mets target:  None

Rey P. - The Tortoise and the Mets Merized

"Patience is bitter, but its fruit, sweet."  Jean-Jacques Rousseau

I just read a well written piece from Joe D over at Mets Merized ("Patience Has Its Price, But Striking Early Has Its Rewards") which -- sadly -- represents just more of the same hopeless sentiment from many Mets fans these days.

As such, I am once again left with no choice but to continue my crusade in hammering away at this Opus Dei, self-flagellating whoomp ass that many of you have become accustomed to under the Wilpon dynasty (pronounced, "die nasty").

I, thus, apologize for this brief interruption from your personal daily life to chastise Mets Merized:

1.  "the strategy of waiting the market out has proved futile."

Really?  Didn't the Mets just acquire the game's top catching prospect and the Blue Jays' best minor league arm (A raw talent that some scouts say might be better than Zack Wheeler's) -- pretty much untouchables to everyone else in baseball?  Everyone except the Mets, who waited out the GM meetings, waited out the winter meetings (and even waited out Thanksgiving fer chrissakes), until all that was left were teams still in need of Aces with no Cy Young award winners on the market.

Ooohhhh yesssss, my weary Mets compatriots... YOUR team... the Mets... played the market like a Milken milkin' junk bonds, extracting a pound of feathers from the Canadian Cyanocitta cristata for a classy knuckler who may or may not ever again have a magical year like 2012.

2.  "The top available power hitter that is still on the market is old friend, Scott Hairston."

Whoa there, Joe D... who says we need to get our power from the Outfield, and therefore overpay for the unimpressive power players left, like Hairston, Ross, etc.?  What?  Just to claim bragging rights about power in the Outfield?   It's about SCORING RUNS -- however way that may come about.

Sure, it's nice to have 30+ HR power in the outfield, but Hairston, et al are NOT 30+ HR guys!  And it's not like we don't have any power in the outfield... shoot... even Collin Cowgill hit a homer in the one ballpark that makes Citifield look like Fenway.  That must project out on some roto site somewhere to breaking Bond's single season record in NY!!!

3.  "Using ISO..."

In PECOTA, ISO is only one of five PPMs used in identifying a hitter's RA.

Riiiiiight... whatever that means.  


But, I ask you, Mets Merized... WHY ARE WE FOCUSING ON MAKING THE OUTFIELD THE BE ALL AND END ALL TO OUR OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION???  The Mets, so far, have power at 1B, 3B and C.  By comparison, the 2012 World Champion SF Giants had power at -- well -- let's take a quiz:

Question:  How many SF Giants hit more than 30 HRs last season?
Answer; NADA

Question:  How many SF Giants hit more than 25 HRs?
Answer:  Again-- ZIPPO

Question:  More than 15 HRs?
Answer:  Just one, Buster!

Question:  Ummm... can you repeat that?
Answer:  Surely (don't call me surely).... ONLY ONE SF GIANT HIT MORE THAN 15 HOME RUNS LAST YEAR -- BUSTER POSEY,

and the TOP power threat in their outfield was a roided up papi chulo with... get ready for this... 11 HOME RUNS!!!

Question:  So how the %@#$& did they win a World Series Championship???

Answer:  Taking liberty with a famous quote:  "It's the PITCHING, stupid!"




4.  "while we upgraded the catcher with a top prospect who has yet to taste the majors, it did cost the Mets their staff ace and the most elite pitcher in the organization."

Ummm... isn't that all one and the same:  R.A. Dickey?  And was Dickey really the most "elite" pitcher in their organization?  I guess it depends on how you define "elite'" but most scouts will move forward building around the pure, "elite" stuff of Harvey, Wheeler and Syndegaard.

5.  "Frank Wren, the GM of the Braves, announced to fans a near identical list of offseason objectives for the 2013 season. His mission was to add a catcher, an outfielder and another reliable bullpen arm. Before the end of November he added Gerald Laird, B.J. Upton and traded for Jordan Walden. Mission accomplished."

Last I checked, Frankie the Brave actually had to GIVE UP (i.e., overpay) money AND players in return for the guys mentioned:

Laird:  a 33 year old slap hitting backup catcher at $3 million.


Upton:  an overrated, strikeout-king wannabe (164, 161 and 169 Ks from 2010-2012) whose batting average for the past 3 seasons were .237, .243 and .246 -- all for grand price of $76 million 

Walden: trading Tommy Hanson-- Three years after welcoming him to the Major Leagues as baseball’s top pitching prospect, albeit with velocity issues of late, for a right-handed setup man who Scioscia never put back as the team closer post-injury despite the team's desperate need for one-- instead going outside the organization for Ernesto Frieri.   

7.  "I haven’t rendered a judgement yet on Alderson’s offseason – with about four weeks remaining, it’s still too early for that."

EXACTLY!!!

8.  "In the end it validates what I said back in September and that was to say that fans shouldn’t put any credence into the dog and pony show we heard on WFAN"

This comes right after No. 7 and the line "But unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat in the next few weeks, based on Alderson’s stated goals and objectives for this offseason, his final grade for this offseason may not be a passing one."

So, in typical Mets fashion, Sandy is deemed a failure before judgment day even arrives! 

9.  "never believe anything an Ivy League lawyer says when his lips are moving."

Come on Joe... just "Ivy League" lawyers?


10.  "The reality is that the 2013 team will most likely lose more games than either the 2011 and 2012 teams."

Yowza!  Clearly, Joe D and the rest of Mets Merized have never read that great masterpiece of fine literature for our generation and the many generations to come,  "Remind Me Again Why 2013 Will Be A 'Lost' Mets Season"

11.  "They’ve lost their best pitcher, and for now, last season’s second best slugger is gone too and has yet to be replaced."

Let me tell ya something, Joe D... if all our hopes and prayers fall on Hairston as our 2d best power hitter, then we Mets fans will truly be "BAH FUNGOO!"  

The sentiment right back at me.

Until next time...

Rey P.


12/27/12

Draft 13 – Top HS RHP, Trevor Williams, Draft Trends, SEC Tourney, Pre-Season All-Americans

Draft 13 –  Top HS RHP, Trevor Williams, Draft Trends, SEC Tourney, Pre-Season All-Americans



Q (Mike) - Who do you view as the top right-handed high school pitcher in the 2013 draft class?

David Rawnsley - I think you ask 30 scouting directors that and you'll get at least 10 different answers. PG has Kohl Stewart ranked the highest, but Jordan Sheffield and Carlos Salazar probably have more arm strength. Dustin Driver and Casey Shane don't throw as hard but are much more polished. Personally, it's not going to shock me if Shane is the top guy, if not in June, then in about 3-5 years.


Jeff Sullivan‏ @JSully12 - Jordan Sheffield- RHP, Tullahoma (TN) HS. Committed to Vanderbilt University 

The rest of the post...  http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2012/12/26/draft-13-top-hs-rhp-trevor-williams-draft-trends-sec-tourney-pre-season-all-americans/

BPN - 2013 Cincinnati Reds Top 15 Prospects


1. Billy Hamilton – OF (Last Year’s Rank: 3)The fastest player in baseball, Hamilton is more than just a burner. He is an old-school base stealing threat that could steal 100 bases a year in the Major Leagues. His speed is absolutely jaw dropping. Beyond his speed, Hamilton has improved his hitting approach and overall offensive ability, giving him an improved chance to actually utilize his speed on the bases. His move to the outfield prior to the AFL was a good one and could accelerate his arrival in the big leagues.

2. Robert Stephenson – RHP (6)Stephenson represents a lottery ticket that the Reds could cash in as a frontline starter. The Reds first round pick in 2011, Stephenson blew through rookie ball in 2012 and survived a trial by fire in the Midwest League as a 19-year old. He has a mid-90s fastball that he can run up to triple digits at times, giving him at least one dominating pitch. Both his breaking ball and change-up, along with his command and control, need improvement, but the raw materials are there to craft a big time pitching prospect.

3. Daniel Corcino – RHP (2)I ranked Corcino aggressively last year and he came through with quality development in 2012, giving credence to my belief in his raw tools. His mechanics still aren’t pretty and his control can be an issue at times, but he owns an easy plus fastball and two secondary pitches with a chance to become above-average offerings down the line. Corcino has the ceiling of a number three starter and he should be in the mix for a big-league job in 2014.

4. Nick Travieso – RHP (NR)
While some amateur scouts aren’t completely sold on Travieso’s long term starting potential, it is hard to ignore what he brings to the table with little pitching experience. His fastball gets up to 94-95 mph during his starts and his slider made significant improvements throughout his senior season. There is little in the way of a change-up at this time but given his inexperience, some scouts are willing to give him some time to show what he can develop.

5. Tony Cingrani – LHP (13)I admit I was low on Cingrani heading into the 2012 season, and while I have moved him up in my rankings, I’m still not buying the long term profile as a starting pitcher. His fastball and change-up are both plus pitches and the change-up can be devastating at times, and he commands both pitches well. His profile as a starting pitcher falls apart when looking at his breaking ball; a below-average pitch that has made little progress. Cingrani can dominate in the late innings and the Reds may allow him to do just that in 2013.

The Rest of the list...  http://baseballprospectnation.com/2012/12/19/2013-cincinnati-reds-top-15-prospects/

In Search For An Outfielder – Minnesota Twins


In Search For An Outfielder – Minnesota Twins

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Miami Marlins – Gorkys Hernandez
Milwaukee Brewers – Khris Davis
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the Minnesota Twins, who have  only five (5) outfielders on their current 40-man roster:

                Oswaldo Arcia – lefty – pre-ARB -  AA: .328
                Joe Benson – righty –  pre-ARB -   AAA:  .179, AA: .184
                Aaron Hicks – switch –  pre-ARB – AA: 472-AB, 13/61
                Darin Mastroianni – righty –  pre-ARB – MLB, 163-AB, .252
        Josh Willingham – righty - $7mil per year through 2014 – MLB, 519-AB, .260, 35/110

This is a young team dominated by one contract, C Joe Mauer.

Both Ben Revere (Phillies) and Denard Span (Nats) are gone. On the surface, the 2013 Twins outfield seem to be suffering the same fate as the Mets. Willingham will anchor at LF, but the ret is up for grabs between the four remaining members of the 40-man.

Mets target:  Don’t be surprised if the Twins aren’t out there bidding against the Mets right now for what’s left in the outfield market - None

In Search For An Outfielder – Milwaukee Brewers


In Search For An Outfielder – Milwaukee Brewers

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Miami Marlins – Gorkys Hernandez
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the Milwaukee Brewers who need to make some reductions to their eight (8) outfielders on the 40-man:

                Norichika Aoki – lefty –  $1.25/mil 2013, FA-2014 – MLB, 520-AB, .288
                Ryan Braun – righty –  $20mil thru 2017 – LF – MLB, 598-AB, 41/112
                Khris Davis – righty –
                Caleb Gindl – lefty – pre-ARB -
                Carlos Gomez – righty –  2014-FA -
                Corey Hart – righty –  $10.334mil in 2013, FA-2014 – RF – MLB, 562-AB, 30/83
                Josh Prince – righty –  AA: 505-AB, .251
                Logan Schafer – lefty -  pre-ARB – MLB, 23-AB, .319

Braun isn’t going anywhere for years.

Hart will play 2013 as a Brewer and then hit the FA market.

You can rule out the lefties, Aoki, Gindle, and Schafer.

Prince needs another year under his belt, Davis finished the season at the AAA level (.310), and Gomez… well, we’ve done that before.

Mets target:   Khris Davis… 7th round pick in 2009 out of Cal State Fullerton… leftfielder… good power… career .914 OPS… 2-12: hit .383 at AA, .310 at AAA… ready.

In Search For An Outfielder – Miami Marlins


In Search For An Outfielder – Miami Marlins

So far, we have identified the following outfielders as possible targets for the Mets:

                Atlanta – Reed Johnson
                Arizona – A.J. Pollock
Baltimore – Nolan Reimold
                Boston – Jerry Sands
                Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson
Chicago White Sox - Dayan Viciedo
Cincinnati – Chris Heisey
                Cleveland – Thomas Neal -
                Colorado – Dexter Fowler
Detroit – none
Kansas City – none
Los Angeles Angels – Mark Trumbo
Los Angeles Dodgers – Alex Castellanos
Pittsburgh – Jose Tabata

We now move on to the Miami Marlins, who have 11 (whew) outfielders on their 40-man. One is named Giancarlo… now, all we have to do is figure out who the other four that they will keep on their 25-man when the season begins:

                Chris Coghlan – lefty –  ARB-1 in 2014 – MLB, 93-AB, .140 – AAA: 317-AB, .284
   Gorkys Hernandez – righty – 0.107yrs ML serv – MLB: 156-AB, .192 – AAA: 237-AB, .257
                Kyle Jensen – righty –  2012:  AA – 445-AB, 24-HR, 84-RBI
          Kevin Mattison – lefty –  0.008yrs ML serv – MLB: 5-AB, .000 – AAA: 482-AB, 13/41
                Logan Morrison – lefty –  (also 1B) – ARB-1 in 2014 – MLB, 296-AB, 11, 36, - 1B
                Marcell Ozuna – righty –   A+:  489-AB, 24/95
                Bryan Peterson – lefty –  ARB-1 in 2015 – MLB: 241-AB, .272
            Juan Pierre – lefty –  $1.6mil/2013, then FA in 2014 – MLB, Phil, 394-AB, .307 – LF 
                Justin Ruggiano – righty –  ARB-1 in 2014 – MLB, 288-AB, .313 - CF
                Alfredo Silverio – righty –  AA: 533-AB, 16/85
                Giancarlo Stanton – righty – ARB-1 in 2014 – MLB, 449-AB, 37/86 – RF

This is a tough one to figure out. First, I’m going to assume that Morrison is going to platoon at first base with Joe Mahoney. That leaves your starting outfield as Stanton, Ruggiano, and Pierre, here under a one year contract.

This leaves you Coghlan, Hernandez, Mattison, and Peterson to fill out the two available slots (three lefties).

Silverio, Ozuna and Jensen have some developing to do.

It seems to me that ex-prospect Hernandez continues to be odd-man out.

Mets target:  Gorkys Hernandez – Miami is his 4th team… made it to the MLB last season… 132-AB with Miami: .212…  best year: 2011:  AAA – Indianapolis:  .283/.348/.392/.740… primarily CF… excellent speed…