1/31/14

Mack's Morning Report - 1-31-14 - Prospect Elevation, John Lannan, Phillies Steamer, Cameron-Chat




Word I’m getting is that the Mets are going to accelerate their prospect progress throughout the chain. In the past, you had to wait your turn regardless of talent. As I understand, that’s going to change, starting with the Savannah 25-man.
1B Dominic Smith, and starting pitchers Chris Flexen and Robert Whalen are rumored to jump to A-ball. Flexen and Whelan look to be joined by Robert Gsellman, John Gant, and Miller Diaz in the rotation. The Mets are also considering promoting 2013 3rd round draft pick Casey Meisner (GCL: 1-3, 3.06) to Savannah.

Meisner is one of the very raw, extremely talented high school stars that the Mets drafted last year. Draft experts told me that they were highly impressed with the choices the Mets made. Matt Eddy particularly told me that he thought the Mets had the best draft in baseball.

Kids like Meisner, 1B Smith, P Andrew Church, CF Ivan Wilson, and SS Luis Guillorme all project as pro-level talent someday. We’re going to keep a special look at these guys as they go into the season. I expect the rest of them to remain in extended camp come April; however, the Mets do have one pressing problem they are going to have to deal with before the season starts.

Both SS Gavin Cecchini and Amed Rosario have two things in common. They are not ready for A+ ball but, at the same time, they have progressed past Brookly and the other rookie ball teams. You can’t assign both of these guys to Savannah and take away reps from the best two shortstop prospects in the system. One of these guys has to move on the St. Lucie ahead of schedule and, if it is true that guys like Flexen and Whelan are moving up a couple of levels, so should one of the shortstops.



Recent free agent signee, SP John Lannan, seems quite serious about winning the SP5 out of camp. One thing I particularly like that Sandy Alderson is doing is bringing in certain amount of ‘local boys’ in with minor league contracts and an invite to camp. Long Beach’s Lannon, and Edison, New Jersey UT Anthony Seratelli are perfect examples of taking advantage of the extra adrenalin that can be generated when a player get to run on the field of the team he grew up rooting for. Smart move by Sandy.


For some reason, Terry Collins has decided to stir up the shit again, just when Alderson has learned to stop doing it. Now, as I understand, he is telling people that Eric Young Jr. is his centerfielder, not Juan Lagares. Is this all necessary right now? There sure is an awful lot of drama for a team that never finishes in second place or beyond.

And now, we end the day with Alderson telling reporters that Wilmer Flores will be considered to return to SS in spring training.

Excuse my french, but I’m getting ready sick and tired of all this mind fucking this spring.


The Mets’ owners appear to be on the verge of finally putting the team’s financial problems behind them, The Post has learned.
Cash-strapped Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz, who faced perhaps an insurmountable spring principal payment on their $250 million loan, are close to refinancing the note, sources said.
“This will be oversubscribed,” a source considering investing in the Bank of America refinancing said.
The re-fi — the biggest off-field hurdle the team faced this off-season — will likely close in February or March, the source said.
   http://nypost.com/2014/01/30/new-loan-could-end-mets-money-problems/ 


Steamer Projects: Philadelphia Phillies Prospects - 


#NameAgePOSPABB%K%BABIPwRC+BsROffDef*WAR
1Maikel Franco213B5504.5%13.9%.280970-221.9
10Tommy Joseph22C4505.5%19.8%.267810-1081.4
9Cesar Hernandez242B/CF5505.9%16.0%.31985-1-911.0
7Aaron Altherr23OF5504.9%25.4%.271530-29-2-1.4
8Roman Quinn21SS5504.5%21.3%.24740-1-376-1.4
3J.P. Crawford19SS5504.6%15.9%.235380-396-1.5
11Andrew Knapp22C4504.1%23.2%.213200-418-1.9
6Carlos Tocci18CF5503.4%18.4%.237310-432-2.4
12Dylan Cozens20RF5504.6%23.9%.221310-43-6-3.2

#NameAgeHandIPK%BB%kwERAkwERA-WAR
5Severino Gonzalez21RHP15018.4%7.5%4.001031.6
15Adam Morgan24LHP15018.1%9.1%4.231091.2
2Jesse Biddle22LHP15023.3%14.6%4.271101.2
14Shane Watson20RHP15010.8%8.4%5.02130-0.1


Cameron-Chat –

Comment From Insert Clever Name Here - Draft-pick valuation seems hard. Do we have any sense of what a second-round pick is “worth”. As in, what deal for Drew would make sense for the Mets, given the pick it would cost?


Dave Cameron: It depends where in the second round it is. The pool money is worth more than the pick itself, and the amount varies by where the pick is. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-chat-12914/

Eno-Chat –

Comment From GrandyMan - Hey Eno, what’s Curtis Granderson worth in Otto points?

Eno Sarris: By steamer, $10 or so. Could be more though.

Comment From Isaac - Daniel Murphy was in a group with Goldy, Hosmer, Cutch, and Trout as guys that had hit >.285, 10, 75, 75, 10 in 2013. Meaningful?


Eno Sarris: No, those cutoffs too random. Also, his steals should regress this year.

1/30/14

Draft 14 - A Quick Look - RHP - Jeff Hoffman - East Carolina



       Jeff Hoffman
6-9-13  -  16.Jeff Hoffman, RHP (East Carolina): The righty has shown a strong low-to-mid 90s fastball, and two potentially-plus off-speed pitches. Doesn’t strikeout as many as the other big college arms though (7.06 K/9 IP). http://www.minorleaguerundown.com/2013/06/09/2014-mlb-draft-top-30-prospects/

6-9-13  - 10. Seattle Mariners — Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - The 6’-4”, 190-pound right-hander is a workhorse who could have a Jonathan Gray-like rise next season with continued development on his curveball and change-up, both of which are solid offerings right now. His fastball is a plus pitch already and touches 97 mph. Over 15 starts this season, he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings. His 7.3 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has, and he maintains velocity deep in games. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-no-time-like-the-present/34008#Vj5KQGPZZT1XUyhx.99

6-10-13 -  Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - Hoffman was one of the most impressive pitchers on the Cape last summer.  He has 3 pitches that all grade out above average.  His fastball gets above 95. http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/06/10/2014-mlb-draft-early-college-names-to-know/

6-13-13  -  10. Seattle Mariners — Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - The 6’-4”, 190 pound right-hander is a workhorse who could have a Jonathan Gray-like rise next season with continued development on his curveball and change-up, both of which are solid offering right now. His fastball is a plus pitch already and touches 97 mph. Over 15 starts this season, he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings. His 7.3 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has and he maintains velocity deep in games. http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2013/06/2014-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-no-time-like-the-present-2513748.html?currentSplittedPage=2

7-17-13 - Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd  - Hyannis/East Carolina 2014 RHP Jeff Hoffman working 94-97 in the first inning in front of a loaded scouting section.
Jeff Hoffman is a 6’4″, 185 pound right-handed starter from Latham, NY. He plays collegiatly for the East Carolina Pirates and for the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in the Cape Cod League. I have seen him pitch three times this season, the first of which was at beautiful Clark-LeClair Stadium in Greenville, NC when the ECU Pirates opposed the University of Central Florida Golden Knights. On 5/16/2013, Jeff threw 8 innings, surrendered 6 hits, walked 6, struck out 5, and allowed 2 runs. The next two outings were on 7/4/2013 and 7/17/2013 during some Cape Cod League Baseball action at McKeon Park in Barnstable, MA. On July 4th, Hoffman went 6 innings, allowed 2 earned runs, 5 hits, 1 walk, and struck-out 8. On July 17th, he was even more impressive. That day, his final line was 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1BB, and 11 K. http://bullpenbanter.com/jeff-hoffman-the-ace-of-the-cape/ e-up that is more of an out pitch. His command can be shaky at times as he is still learning how to be a pitcher instead of just running his overpowering fastball. Over 15 starts this year, he had a 4.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 109 K/48 BB over 95.1 innings. If he works on his command the way Jonathan Gray did this year, as well as refine his off-speed stuff, he could challenge Beede and Rodon for the top pick. http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2013/06/2014-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-no-time-like-the-present-2513748.html?currentSplittedPage=2  

8-14-13 – Through The Fence – Top 50 Prospects – 5. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - The 6’-4”, 200-pound right-hander was dominate at the Cape Cod League this year. Over 24.1 innings, he had 33 K/5 BB and allowed 20 hits for Hyannis. His fastball can touch 98 mph, and both his curveball and change-up are solid offerings and getting better. Over 15 starts as a sophomore, he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings. His 7.3 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has, and he maintains velocity deep in games. We all saw Jonathan Gray rocket up draft boards this past year, and Hoffman could enjoy the same ride.  http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-top-50-prospects/36463#mwWwsFxSUZy7YC5V.99

9-1-13 - Jim Callis – 2. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, East Carolina - Starred in Cape Cod League last two summers with mid-90s fastball, big-breaking curve.

9-4-13 – Mack’s Mock Draft v1.0 – 9 – Twins – RHP   Jeff Hoffman – East Carolina – 6-4 control finesse pitcher (7.06 K/9 IP) who simply gets the job done working the corners with his 92-95, 97 fastball and two + off-speed pitches. 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings last season.  Had a big summer in the Cape Cod League and a lot of scouts are predicting a Jonathan Gray-like rise in the rankings for him once the season starts. I already have him there.

9-10-13 – Top Arms in 2013 Cape Cod League - Jeff Hoffman 6-4/183, Hyannis Harborhawks 24.1 IP, 33K, 3.70 ERA: FB 93-97 CB 78-82 CH 86-89-  Hoffman has put himself in the discussion of top 5 picks for next year’s draft. His FB is thrown with downward plane and flashes late bore. His CB is tight with depth in the zone and late break. His CH is firm but has run. Other than one outing, he dominated CCBL line-ups. http://bullpenbanter.com/2013-all-cape-team-pitchers 
/  
9-27-13 - Jim Callis - The 2014 Draft is a solid group that impresses scouts more than the 2012 and 2013 talent pools. College pitching is always a prized commodity, and there's plenty behind Rodon, starting with right-handers Jeff Hoffman (East Carolina) and Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt). There's more velocity this year in the high school ranks, with righty Tyler Kolek (Shepherd, Texas, HS) leading the way with a consistent upper-90s fastball. The pitchers stand out more than the position players, though there are plenty of intriguing bats. Catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson (Rancho Bernardo HS, San Diego) and shortstop Jacob Gatewood (Clovis, Calif., HS) offer plenty of power, while Trea Turner (North Carolina State) has uncommon speed and is a rare collegian who should be able to play shortstop in the Majors. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130927&content_id=61864804&c_id=

9-29-13 – XMLBScout – 10.)RHP, Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina, 6'4 190, nice easy delivery with fb that reaches 95, most are 91-92 with life and boring action in on RHH, cb and change still coming along, both could be used to get outs in pro ball currently but need improvement at the ML level to be effective, appears to have enough stamina and strength to be a starter but has a loose enough arm that he could be effective best out of the bullpen. Definite one to watch for 2014, 1-3 round projection, for me 4-7 round seems fair. http://xmlbscout.angelfire.com/ 

9-30-13 – TTF Mock 2.0 - 4. Chicago Cubs — Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina   With Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Albert Almora and Jorge Soler leading the way, the Cubs have some outstanding offensive potential coming through the system at a rapid pace. By selecting Hoffman here, they can hopefully add that ace in the rotation they so desperately need. The 6’-4”, 200-pound right-hander was dominate at the Cape Cod League this year. Over 24.1 innings, he had 33 K/5 BB and allowed 20 hits for Hyannis. His fastball can touch 98 mph, and both his curveball and change-up are solid offerings and getting better. Over 15 starts as a sophomore, he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings. His 7.3 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has, and he maintains velocity deep in games. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-draft-order-set/38280#5E3F5j1jWOgE69bJ.99 

10-6-13 – Kendall Rogers/PG – College Prospects - 2. Jeff Hoffman, rhp,  East Carolina (Drafted: Never) - There’s always that prospect who takes a massive step forward during the summer. Last summer, it was Mississippi State outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who parlayed a strong summer and spring into a Padres first-round pick. Now, it’s likely Hoffman, who elevated his status at the Cape Cod League by sitting 94-97, and up to 98, with his fastball, which had exploding life. Hoffman also showed a good 80-82 curveball throughout the summer. If Hoffman is consistent in the spring, it’s not out of the question that he could be the first overall pick in the MLB draft. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9081
10-9-13 – Early Pick for Cubs - Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - Carlos Rodon is left off the 2014 MLB draft list because the only way he falls out of the top three is if he has an injury or decides to give up the sport altogether — neither of which I hope happens. Jeff Hoffman, a 6’-4” right-hander, impressed some scouts so much in the Cape Cod League that some have put him in the discussion for 1-1 with Rodon. With more than 24.1 innings, he had 33 K/5 BB and showed off his great stuff, headlined by a mid-90s fastball and the makings of a plus curveball that sits in the 80-84 mph range. Hoffman also adds an above-average change-up and solid slider, giving him a quality four-pitch mix. His command still needs to be a little more consistent but he shows a smooth, effortless delivery so the mechanics are there. At 185 pounds, there is still projection left and he could actually gain more velocity as he fills out. It is no secret that the Cubs organization lacks starting pitching depth and, if Hoffman is still on the board for the 2014 MLB draft, he could be a huge addition to one of the best farm systems in baseball. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-early-targets-chicago-cubs-fourth-overall-pick/38723

10-16-13 – Kevin Gallo on Jeff Hoffman - Fastball: Has a plus FB that sits in the mid-90s with excellent tailing action. Secondary Pitches: Hoffman has an above average to plus Curveball closer to plus. CB sits around 80mph with a 1 to 7 hard biting break. He looks to be an out pitch at the Major League Level. Change up: His Changeup is average but doesn’t use it very much. It sits in the high 80s but shows good tailing and arm action. I have been told his Changeup has improved but I can only go off what I have seen. Command: He works good command of his FB and CB but didn’t see enough of his CU to get an idea of it.  Summary: Hoffman as show the tools to be the #1 pick in next year’s draft but Rondon is going to be difficult to overtake. He also has room to gain muscle and develop. He has the pieces to be a pure #1 and if his changeup has improved he could become an elite pitcher http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2013/10/guest-post-scouting-report-on-jeff-hoffman/

10-15-13 – Baseball America - 2. Jeff Hoffman, rhp, East Carolina: His stuff isn’t far off from Rodon’s, but he hasn’t performed to a comparable level (6.8 K/9 in two seasons). http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-draft-top-50-october-2013-carlos-rodon/

10-18-13 – Matt Garroich – Jeff Hoffman of East Carolina is a righty that has frontline potential and three plus pitch potential. He would be the kind of guy who would be in discussions for the top pick in any draft, so he should be in this draft as well, even with Rodon in it. I don't want to oversell Hoffman at this point because his stuff has always been better than his results but his summer on Cape Cod was simply dominant. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/10/18/4851030/2014-mlb-draft-atlantic-region-college-discussion

11-3-13 – Baseball America - East Carolina’s scout day was held Friday night, which gave in-state scouts a look at righthander Jeff Hoffman, who ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Cape Cod League this summer. Hoffman dominated with Cape with sharpened stuff that produced 12 strikeouts per nine and a 6.6 strikeout-walk ratio. Hoffman sat 93-96 mph with his fastball through two innings and did not throw a fastball below 94 in his second inning. He has a loose, easy arm action and the ball jumps out of his hand with downhill plane and minimal effort from a three-quarters slot. Hoffman largely pitched off his fastball. http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/east-carolina-scout-day-jeff-hoffman/

11-4-13 – MLB Draft Insider - Top 14 for ’14: College Pitchers - 2. Jeff Hoffman / RHP / East Carolina – He doesn’t have Rodon’s track record, but Hoffman was as good — if not better — than any collegiate pitcher this summer, occasionally hitting 97 on the gun with a plus-plus curve and a change that also flashed plus. http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/11/top-14-for-14-college-pitchers/

   11-27-13 – Big League Futures Top 25 Poll –  3 Jeff Hoffman    RHP East Carolina http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/11/26/mlb-draft-top-25-prospects-poll/

B/R – 11-21-13 - 2. Miami Marlins: Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - A 6’4”, 183-pound right-hander, Jeff Hoffman has a very projectable frame that will allow him to add considerable strength, especially to his lower half, as he develops. Throwing on a consistent downhill plane, Hoffman will usually sit in the 92-97 mph range with his fastball and more toward the high end of that range when he’s at his best. While he does a decent job of working the pitch to both sides of the plate, his overall command leaves room for improvement. In terms of his secondary arsenal, Hoffman features a plus curveball in the 78-83 mph range with tight, top-to-bottom rotation and late downer bite. The offering has plus-plus potential at maturity. Hoffman also throws a mid-80s slider that already grades as at least an average offering when on, though it’s less consistent than the true curveball. The right-hander has a changeup with average fading action that should develop into another weapon during his rise to the major leagues. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1860341-2014-mlb-mock-draft-early-first-round-projections-for-all-30-teams/page/10

12-9-13 – Pine Tar Press  -  6- RHP Tyler Beede Vanderbilt 5/23/93- He turned down the Blue Jays (21st overall) out of HS and has become a dominant collegiate for Vandy winning 14 games as a sophomore. He has 3 solid pitches with a 92-94 fastball and a very good curve and change. He still has question marks with overall command. (Cubs @ 4) http://pinetarpress.com/early-look-2014-mlb-draft/

1-3-14 – TTF Baseball - 3. Chicago Whit Sox — Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina - Since Kenny Williams took over in 2000, the White Sox have selected a college player in the first round 13 of 17 times. Eight of those have been pitchers. He would have his pick of a couple here but I say he would go with Hoffman, a 6’-4”, 200 pound right-hander who has been rocketing up draft boards since dominating the Cape Cod League. Over 24.1 innings, he had 33 K/5 BB and allowed 20 hits for Hyannis. His fastball can touch 98 mph, and both his curveball and change-up are solid offerings, and getting better. Over 15 starts as a sophomore, he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 84 K/39 BB over 109.2 innings. His 7.2 innings-per-start show the kind of stamina he has, and he maintains velocity deep in games. A strong showing his junior season could propel him in talks for the number-one spot. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-2/40753#ppGUqI6CbWFvzsPf.99


1-20-14 – PG Preseason College All-Americans - Starting Pitcher - Jeff Hoffman, East Carolina - 2013 Stats: 3.20 ERA, 109 2/3 IP, 84 K, 39 BB, .243 OPP BA - Though it remains a long shot in the eyes of many, Hoffman is one pitcher who could unseat Rodon as the top overall pick in next summer’s MLB draft. Hoffman, a 6-foot-4, 192-pounder, has elite stuff, and coach Billy Godwin feels like he has a chance to put all the puzzle pieces together once and for all this spring. Hoffman has a fastball anywhere from 94-97, with the ability to touch 98, while he possesses a good low-80s curveball and developing low-80s changeup. Perhaps no pitcher includes as much intrigue entering the spring as Hoffman. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9294

Draft 14 – Michael Gettys, Branden Kelliher, Alex Verdugo, Dylan Cease

B/R – 11-21-13 - 7. Philadelphia Phillies: Michael Gettys, OF/RHP, Gainesville HS (Ga.) - Even though he’s capable of pumping low-90s fastballs off the mound, Michael Gettys' most realistic future is as a center fielder. Possessing plenty of strength at 6’2”, 200 pounds, Gettys is one of the top runners in the 2014 draft class, showcasing plus-plus speed on both sides of the ball.  At the dish, the right-handed hitter has shown improved bat speed over the summer and is expected to offer at least average power at maturity. His secondary skills and pitch recognition are both raw but figure to improve as he continues to gain experience.  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1860341-2014-mlb-mock-draft-early-first-round-projections-for-all-30-teams/page/10

11-21-13 – BA Top 100 High School Players - 85 Branden Kelliher RHP R/R 5-10 170 Lake Stevens (Wash.) HS Oregon http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2014-high-school-top-100-with-commitments/

12-10-13 – TTF – Top 50 HS Players - 22. Alex Verdugo, LHP/OF, Sahuaro HS (AZ) - One of the better two-way talents available in the 2014 MLB draft, the 6’-1” left-hander has a tough decision on his hands as he excels as both a hitter and pitcher. He can touch 93 mph with his fastball and also adds solid secondaries in a mid-70s curveball and an upper-70s change-up. He has great bat speed and shows raw power. Over 93 at bats as a junior, he hit .484 with seven home runs, stole 24 bases and drew 25 walks to just three strikeouts. On the mound, he struck out 130 over 65 innings. Committed to Arizona State. http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-top-50/40532#zz88YJZTOG8iEa1Z.99

12-9-13 – Pine Tar Press  -  22- RHP Dylan Cease Milton HS (Vanderbilt Commit) He is the second hardest throwing arm in his HS class. Unlike the first (Tyler Kolek) he doesn’t have the big body one traditionally thinks of as having that much power. But, the 6’2 175 pounder has plenty of arm speed and a loose, easy arm that explodes towards the plate. He is one of several big time commits for Vanderbilt and they usually do not lose players to the MLB draft. He threw 94-96 at PG National with a change at 81 and hard slider at 77. ( Moves out of first round-signability, Red Sox selection) http://pinetarpress.com/early-look-2014-mlb-draft/

Fangraphs - Top Colorado Rockies Prospects




AgeGGSIPHHRK/9BB/9ERAFIP
222828149.29698.603.131.803.23
The Year in Review: A supplemental first round draft pick from 2012, Butler has moved quickly through the Rockies’ system. He played at three levels in 2013: Low-A, High-A and Double-A. He spent the majority of the year in A-ball and made 22 starts between the two levels. Combined between all three levels, Butler struck out 143 batters in 149.2 innings and induced ground-ball outs at a high rate.
The Scouting Report: Butler made huge strides with his secondary stuff in 2013 and projects to now have three solid weapons with his mid-to-upper-90s fastball, changeup and slider — all of which feature a lot of movement. He also has a curveball that lags behind his other offerings. Along with swing-and-miss stuff, Butler’s ground-ball tendencies make him an ideal pitcher for Colorado.
The Year Ahead: After making just six starts at the Double-A level in 2013, the Virginia native should return to that level in 2014. Like prospect-mate Jonathan Gray, Butler could be in the Majors in the second half of the season.
The Career Outlook: Butler has come a long way in a short period of time and, if everything clicks, he could slot in nicely right alongside Gray for a formidable one-two punch.

AgeGGSIPHHRK/9BB/9ERAFIP
219937.125012.291.931.931.19
The Year in Review: The third overall selection in the 2013 amateur draft, Gray made nine starts after turning pro and stuck out 51 batters in 37.1 innings of work. He also showed above-average control with just eight walks. After beginning his career in the Advanced Rookie league, Gray finished the season with five High-A ball starts and batters hit just .128 against him.
The Scouting Report: Gray has overpowering velocity on his heater, which sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and can hit triple digits. His slider is his second-best offering and it can be overpowering. His changeup is still a work-in-progress and is inconsistent. To survive pitching half his games in Colorado, Gray may want to focus a little bit more on working down in the zone and inducing more ground-ball outs.
The Year Ahead: Gray’s strong start to his career, as well as his pedigree, could convince the organization to start him out in Double-A in 2014 — assuming he looks good in the spring. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Gray in the Rockies’ big league starting rotation by the end of August.
The Career Outlook: The University of Oklahoma alum has a chance to develop into a No. 1 starter if he can develop a reliable third offering to his repertoire.

AgePAH2BHRBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGwOBA
19421140282.275.310.425.335
The Year in Review: Dahl had a nightmare 2013 season. The 10th overall draft pick in the 2012 amateur draft received an opening day assignment to Low-A ball but that was quickly overturned and he was demoted to extended spring training for disciplinary reasons. He then returned to that level in late April but appeared in just 10 games in ’13 thanks to a torn hamstring.
The Scouting Report: Dahl is a rare true five-tool talent. He makes excellent contact and has an advanced feel for hitting. He could eventually hit 20+ home runs but is still learning to tap into his left-handed pop on a consistent basis. He is an above-average runner, which helps him play an excellent center field and he also has a strong arm.
The Year Ahead: Dahl will no doubt return to Low-A ball and look to put his disastrous ’13 season behind him. He posted a 1.048 OPS during his debut season in 2012 so the raw talent is definitely there; he just needs to find a way to channel his energies in an effect manner on the baseball diamond.
The Career Outlook: The Alabama native will turn 20 in early April so time is still on his side. He has the talent to be an outstanding big league outfielder if he can continue to mature both on and off the field.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-10-prospects-colorado-rockies/   

Future Sox - Top White Sox Prospects - 2014


1. Jose Abreu, 1B     [NEW]
  • Signed from Cuba (via Haiti, DR) this offseason
The White Sox beat out numerous other teams to sign Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu this offseason to a 6-year, $68M contract.  The about-to-be 27 year old first baseman has torn up Cuban league pitching, as displayed in this video game-like stat line from his 2010-2011 Serie Nacional campaign: .453/.597/.986, 33 HR in 66 games.  But what do those cartoonish numbers translate to in major league baseball?  A formula developed by Baseball Prospectus writer Clay Davenport tries to apply some science to the translation, and was pretty accurate on Yasiel Puig.  Abreu's Davenport projection: .321/.446/.660, which is in the territory of Frank Thomas in his prime.  That seems outlandish, but the picture it paints is that his ceiling could be very high.  Abreu rates 70 to 80 on the power scale, and at 6'2" and 250 pounds he's a big man who is purely a 1B or DH.  There is no speed there, and reports on his defense are mixed and sparse.  Early reports from the Sox' recent mini-camp for young players were very positive.  Abreu is the White Sox 1B of the present and future and is unlikely to see the Sox minor league system.  For an in-depth look at Abreu's look at the plate, see this detailed Fangraphs GIF-based deconstruction.
2. Erik Johnson, RHP     [Previous Rank: 1st, -1]
  • Drafted 2nd Round in 2011
Johnson falls out the #1 slot due only to the presence of Abreu, and remains the best internally raised prospect in the White Sox system.  Much as he did the previous year, the right-hander blew through minor leaguer hitters at two levels in 2013.  In 14 games for Birmingham (AA) he posted a 2.23 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .189 BAA, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 14 starts.  Then promoted to Charlotte (AAA), he gave up even fewer runs and struck out yet more batters: 1.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .209 BAA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.9 K/9.  That earned Erik a promotion to the majors, a scant 2+ years after being drafted.  In 5 starts for the White Sox, Johnson kept the earned runs down (3.25 ERA) and the walks under control (3.6 BB/9), but he gave up some hits (.281 BAA) and the strikeouts came down (5.9 K/9).  This Cal product's success rests with a low to mid 90's four-seamer, two-seamer, a plus slider, above average change and a curveball.  If you want a deeper look into his approach, read our interview with him here.  Johnson is virtually assured a rotation spot in Chicago to open 2014.
3. Matt Davidson, 3B     [NEW]
  • Drafted 1st Round Supplemental (35th overall) in 2009
Acquired in December in exchange for closer Addison Reed, Davidson immediately jumps to near the top of the list.  This third baseman's plus power is obvious in the 20+ home runs in each of the past three seasons, and in 2012 he was named by Baseball America as the best power hitter in the Diamondbacks organization and best power prospect in the Southern League (AA).  An ability to draw walks (and a knack for getting hit by pitches) has allowed him to compile a .351 OBP in the minors with a .268 average.  Last season after putting up a .280/.350/.481 line at AAA Reno (in the notoriously hitter-friendly PCL), Davidson was promoted to MLB and put up a .237/.333/.434 line in 87 plate appearances, but he also struck out 24 times.  Therein lies one of the two question marks with this prospect - will he make enough contact to use that power?  After posting a reasonable K/PA rate in 2012 at AA (21.9%), the rate spiked to 26.8% in AAA last season and 27.6% in that short MLB stint.  The other question with Davidson is about his defensive work at the hot corner, where scouts have noted improvement in footwork but still have concerns about the glove.  Matt will be battling Conor Gillaspie for the starting 3B job in Chicago come spring, but could end up in AAA Charlotte (at least to start) for his age 23 season.
the rest of the list...

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2014/01/top-white-sox-prospects-2014-pre-season-top-25/

UPDATE - Sandy on Flores Playing SS


“I don’t think we’d rule it out. Why should we? I think we have to see how Spring Training plays out for him — is there going to be a spot for him in the lineup? Is there not? Is he going to be a bench player for us? Is he going to go to Las Vegas?”


Sometimes I think if you ask Alderson a question about, let's say, Zack Wheeler, working as a flipper of hamburgers, he would say,  'hey, we don't rule out anything... "

Nothing against Flores, but he proved over a three year period that his legs were too slow to play shortstop. That was in A-ball. Why would the major league level be easier than that.

God, I wish the season would start.


How the Mets ended up 8th in payroll and 23rd in Wins since 2009 pt. 1



DYSFUNCTION JUNCTION (Symbolic how all three are looking different directions)

 
From Dave Schoenfield of ESPN ranking payroll and wins 2009-2013:

23. New York Mets: 374 wins (tie), $606.9 million (8th)

Matt Harvey's injury has allowed the Mets to sell 2014 as another rebuilding year, although they did sign free-agent outfielders Curtis Granderson and Chris Young and starter Bartolo Colon. The Mets have one playoff appearance in the past 13 years. I'm guessing it will be one in 14.


The team is 8th in payroll and 23rd in wins since 2009. Think about that for a minute. That is a subpar R.O.I. in any business. It spreads across two regimes and half a decade. This includes the contracts of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Jason Bay, and David Wright—the bulk of monies doled out went to those five.  

After the “Mad” money went away and the brakes effectively pulled on spending or signing big dollar Free Agents between the Bay and Granderson deals, the Mets still end up among the 10 highest payrolls in MLB over those five years. 

Looking back you really can't argue with the money spent on those fab five. Santana? He was the top pitcher in the AL when they traded for him and you can’t predict injuries. Bay? At the time the Mets were lauded for both the signing and the price. 

But what about how they spent payroll on the next level of players on the team from 2009-2013? Well, let’s look at each year and see where the capital was going for supporting cast who made $5 million or more a year.

Despite the collapses of  '07 and '08 the Mets were riding high coming into 2009. Their Shea farewell season led the NL in attendance with over 4 million clicking through the turnstiles. Citi Field opened for business in '09 and inaugural seasons at new ballparks always give a spike to attendance. The Shake Shack would be rockin' and the Mets would be winnin'! Well, ermm, not exactly. Attendance tumbled to $3.1 million (5th in the NL) and along with it the Mets fortunes.

2009
Carlos Delgado $12
Oliver Perez $12
Francisco Rodriguez $8.5 million
Billy Wagner $8 million
Brian Schneider $4.9 million
Luis Castillo $6 million
J.J. Putz $5.5 million

Delgado and Wagner could’ve been included with the five above because they were core members of the team but 2009 were their final Met seasons so their overall 5-year impact was minimal. In 2009 the team spent $22 million on three closers, including one who was injured and another slotted into a set up role. What’s really shocking though is that Oliver Perez made as much as Carlos Delgado. I’ll repeat that-Oliver Perez made as much as Carlos Delgado in 2009 and more than Reyes, Wagner, or Wright.

Combine that with the $6 million you’re paying Castillo plus the $4.9 million invested in Schneider and there’s almost $23 million going to three below replacement value players. The trade for Schneider was a head-scratcher in the first place and it goes without saying that we overpaid badly on Perez as well as Castillo-inexplicably bidding against ourselves on the former.

K-Rod’s contract made sense at the time and despite questions about Putz’s health pre-trade you can’t predict injuries so that money spent is mostly defensible. The three-way deal to acquire Putz, however, was not. The Mets could’ve really used Endy Chavez, Joe Smith and Jason Vargas over the next few seasons. Especially Smith, he is a top reliever and pitched well with the Mets. This isn’t a hindsight being 20/20 deal either because Jeremy Reed and Sean Green were worthless even before putting on the orange and blue. But hey, at least it gave the Mets three closers including the injured Wagner.

Speaking of Billy the Kid-Why on earth did the Mets keep him? Even Wagner didn’t think it would make good business sense to roster him and guarantee $8 million in 2009. The Mets got all of 1 inning out of Wagner for that $8 mil. So adding this to the terrible three mentioned above you now have $31 million of your payroll being wasted. The crazy thing is that after paying him to do nothing all season Minaya trades Wagner to the Bosox for Chris “The Animal” Carter and Eddie Lora. Career minor leaguers are always a better return than an extra first round draft pick right? The irony is that the Mets did this because they didn’t want to pay anymore first-round draft picks. Yet they had no trouble paying $8 million to an idle Wagner and $12 million to Oliver “Freaking” Perez.  

Mets record in 2009 70-92





2010
Oliver Perez $12 million
Jason Bay $8.6 million
Luis Castillo $6.25 million
Jeff Francoeur $5 million

Johan’s $20 million and Bay’s salary have been added along with raises for Beltran, K-Rod, Wright and Reyes.  Yet in 2010, even after adding Bay and Santana, the Mets payroll dropped 10.31% from $142 million to $127 million. This also means Perez’s deal became an even bigger albatross while injuries and underperformance tarnished Bay’s debut season at Citi Field (it would get worse though-much worse). Castillo and Francoeur gobbled up $11.25 million of payroll while doing next to nothing on the field. In fact the unholy trinity of Castillo, Francoeur and Perez accounted for $23 million of wasted Met dollars. Add that to 2009’s black hole a.k.a. Perez, Castillo, Schneider and it’s $54 million over two years spent on wasted salaries. Granted the Mets didn’t give up much (Ryan Church) for Francoeur but thanks to a hot performance, after being acquired from Atlanta in 2009, the Front Office thought he was their long-unsolved answer to their RF problem. They were wrong.

One of the Mets biggest problems during their 2005-2008 run was an inability to flank Beltran with decent corner options. They sure tried though: Shawn Green, Moises Alou, Xavier Nady, Ryan Church…hell, in 2009 they even trotted out 40 year old Gary Sheffield for LF duties. Their failed attempts at shoring up the corner OF spot contributed greatly to the failures of 2007-2008 and continue to be a problem today. It’s also a large reason why they signed Jason Bay. A move that made sense at the time-that is if you thought 2009 was an anomaly and the team was still just a couple players away from contention. That was not the case. Instead of challenging for the pennant the Mets brought home their second consecutive 90-loss season. A two win improvement over 2009!

Citi Field attendance however, tumbled again. In year two the Mets fell below 3 million for the first time since 2005. The 2.559 million represented a 47% attendance drop in two seasons! The Mets were experiencing the exact opposite of the "new stadium effect". This compounded with a spiraling payroll as well as everything associated with the Madoff ponzi scheme scandal were making things a mess in Metsland. Needless to say it was time for Ch-ch-changes. They would come. Quickly.

 Mets record in 2010 72-90

(Part 2 will pick up with the arrival of Alderson and Co.)