When you sit around and shoot the breeze with fellow Mets fans, there's no single topic that is an exclusive focus of the group. Everyone knows the front office and missing manager are all vacancies thus far unaddressed. The anorexic-thin starting rotation will get plenty of attention.
The big decisions regarding who plays second base will also occupy quite a few rounds of beverages. However, there's one area where very few people are expending energy and that is the outfield.
As a refresher, the Mets went into last season between injuries with a combination mostly of Dom Smith in left, Brandon Nimmo in center and Michael Conforto in right. No one seemed fully satisfied with this alignment and Smith earned himself few fans with his below average output for the season. Most are advocating you deal him away for the proverbial bag of balls.
Nimmo probably won a few more fans given his higher-than-usual batting average. Conforto has already declared he's not looking for a QO to keep him in New York.
So, going into the 2022 season you are penciling in Brandon Nimmo to play one of those three outfield positions. After that it's a mystery. If Smith is wearing another uniform and Conforto follows his agent's advice to do the same, then the club has a great mystery to solve.
Kevin Pillar is going to be back as his two-year deal signed for 2021 contained a $6.5 million guarantee for two seasons combined. While his comeback after the broken nose was the stuff to endear him to fans for his grit, the fact is he had a pretty rotten year. He hit .231 while on a pace for 150+ strikeouts for the season. On run productivity he was much better with 15 HRs and 42 RBIs in about a half-year's worth of ABs, but he's not jumping out as someone who must be a starter.
Jeff McNeil may be in that outfield mix as well with Robinson Cano, possibly Javy Baez, possibly Jonathan Villar, J.D. Davis and Luis Guillorme all vying for innings on the infield. Since McNeil already has 151 games in the outfield in his major league career. By comparison, he has 182 at 2nd base. With the logjam of others behind the pitcher on the infield, outfield may indeed become McNeil's home.
After that it's pretty unclear who would be in the outfield mix. Khalil Lee was flat out awful in his 2021 Mets brief appearance. He was only up 18 times, registering just a single hit and striking out in 13 of those plate appearances. Ugh!
However, in AAA Lee seemed to get it together. His numbers there were far more respectable. The strikeouts were still high with 115 in under 300 ABs, but he hit .274 with 14 HRs and 37 RBIs while playing stellar defense in center field.
He wasn't stealing bases with reckless abandon as he did in 2019 for a full season with the Kansas City AA affiliate when he pilfered 53. For the Syracuse Mets he only stole 14. Speed is not something that goes to sleep, so it was perhaps a year of adjusting to his new team and new league at a new level.
After Lee, it's pretty dismal. The Mets are talking about moving some of their hotter infield prospects to the outfield, but that's not going to help in the 2022 season. So unless you are looking for some combination of Nimmo, McNeil, Pillar and Lee, the Mets are likely going to have to look to the trade market or free agent list to find someone who is a more slugging type of outfielder.
For the trade side, that's always a matter of who is willing to part with whom and who the Mets are willing to send out of town to make it happen. That speculation could go on all day, examining 29 other major and minor league rosters as well as foreign players looking to move into the North American-based Major Leagues. In the past the Mets were almost always out on foreign ballplayers, but that could change under Steve Cohen and his new management team's roster-building approach.
On the free agent side, that list is somewhat known already. You have folks like:
Left Fielders:
- Mark Canha (Age 33, 4.3 WAR)
- Kyle Schwarber (Age 29, 3.4 WAR) -- mutual option
- Eddie Rosario (Age 30, 1.9 WAR)
- Tommy Pham (Age 34, 1.4 WAR)
- Andrew McCutchen (Age 35, 1.0 WAR) -- club option
- Corey Dickerson (Age 33, 0.8 WAR)
- Jurickson Profar (Age 29, 0.6 WAR) -- can opt out
- Joc Pederson (Age 30, 0.5 WAR) -- mutual option
Center Fielders:
- Starling Marte (Age 33, 6.7 WAR)
- Chris Taylor (Age 31, 4.5 WAR)
Right Fielders:
- Nick Castellanos (Age 30 4.5 WAR) -- can opt out
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Age 31, 3.6 WAR) -- mutual option
- Michael Conforto (Age 29, 2.9 WAR)
- Adam Duvall (Age 33, 2.9 WAR) -- mutual option
- Charlie Blackmon (Age 35, 2.3 WAR) -- player option
There are indeed some attractive options out there, most of whom have exceeded what Michael Conforto did this past wasted season. If I asked everyone to predict which of the outfielders had the best output, I would be willing to bet not a single answer would have been Sterling Marte.
He is interesting because at age 33 now he's hitting the years where his speed becomes something less of a weapon, but you can't argue with his .289 career batting average and modest power as additional weapons to accompany his once stellar defense in centerfield. Nowadays you might find him instead in a corner.
If you look at Marte's current deal, he's finishing up a deal that paid him $12.5 million. He'll get a bump but not a mega $20+ million bump given his age. Compare that to what Conforto expects to get, what Schwarber would look to get and what NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario will hope to get.
One thing the Mets might look to do is bring in a stopgap older outfielder who can give them 1+ years of respectable performance like Corey Dickerson. He's not hitting for as much power as in the past, but he's still a respected hitter. In 2021 he earned $8.75 million and probably is looking at the same or less in 2022.
Andrew McCutchen is 35 now and won't cost much for a one-year deal. His batting average was Conforto-like this past season, but he hit 27 HRs and drove in 80. He has a $15 million salary if the Phillies retain him or a $3 million buyout.
Of course, all of this speculation is just that until the Mets settle their front office and field manager situations. Still, for as little attention as folks have paid the outfield quandary, it appears there are options out there that could indeed help.
