Open Thread – Playoff Roster

The race is too tight to call, but the upcoming series with the Atlanta Braves will likely decide who wins the NL East.  Everyone is getting geared up for those big games, but must still focus on the task at hand, which is to beat lesser teams this week and the week following the Atlanta series.  So while the team preps for their games, let the readers prep for the post-season.  We will run two “open threads” – one today before the Braves series and one next week after the series.  It will be fun to see if the choices change based on what happens in Atlanta.

Who should be on the playoff roster?  There is no question about the starters and the first couple of reserves.  So let’s just consider the following guys as “in”:

Fielders: Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso, McNeil, Escobar, Canha, Guillorme.

Catchers: Nido, McCann

DH: Vogelbach

Pitchers: Scherzer, deGrom, Bassitt, Carrasco, Walker, Lugo, Ottavino, Diaz

In the 2022 MLB playoffs, teams must submit a 26-man roster prior to each series which must include 13 pitchers.  The roster can be different for each series.

There are eleven position players listed above, leaving two slots to fill.  Candidates include:

Rostered: Darrin Ruf, Tyler Naquin, Terrance Gore, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty(IL) Dom Smith, Kahlil Lee, Michael Perez,

Others, like Francisco Alvarez, Nick Plummer, Travis Jankowski, and Daniel Palka were not on the 40-man roster or 60-day IL on August 31st and therefore could only be added through a special exception process.

There are eight pitchers listed above, leaving five slots to fill.  Candidates include:

Mychal Givens(IL), Trevor May, Drew Smith, Tylor Megill, David Petersen, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Stephen Nogosek, Yoan Lopez, Tommy Hunter(IL), Alex Claudio, Jose Butto, Bryce Montez de Oca(IL).

So weigh in now with your choices; who are your three position players and five pitchers to add?

2023 Draft Prospect - RHP - Chance Mako

 

Chance Mako 

RHP          East Rowan, Salisbury, NC 

 

7-26-22 - 2023 MLB DRAFT - TOP 100 HIGH SCHOOL PROSPECTS - 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-38awn  

32 RHP

Chance Mako

East Rowan, Salisbury, NC 

Standing at the top of a very good North Carolina State 2023 recruiting class is the imposing, high-waisted 6-foot-5-inch frame of Mako. An abundance of projection sounds out with this profile led by an above-average fastball/slider combo. Fastball will live in the low-90s with explosive life at the top of the zone and plenty more velocity to project. Slider could be close to, if not a plus pitch already in the high-70s with consistent shape and an innate feel to spin. (RPMs north of 2800). Will absolutely fill the zone up with both pitches while missing plenty of bats. Changeup still a work in progress, but hard not to be bullish on the upside that Mako offers.

 

Tom Brennan - How Did The 2022 Mets Draftees Do, & 3 Questions For You to Answer

The Mets' # 1 pick in 2021, Kumar Rocker, still has not started his minor league career, just in case you didn't know.  

Maybe in 2023, who knows.

I know I need not remind you that Wyatt Young, 15th rounder from 2021, hit .370 last year in his debut cameo.  This year? Got on base 195 times in 122 games in AA and AAA.  Not sure what made me bring him up, since I never do.   And no one else does, either.  

Also from 2021's draft, 4th rounder righty Dom Hamel and 10th rounder lefty Keyshawn Askew also had terrific 2022 seasons.

What, though, about our 2022 Mets draftees? 

How'd they do? 

Round, position, bonus and stats are reflected.  Not a ton of games, but 2022 play gives a sense of who might be real good going forward.

1 (11): Kevin Parada, C, college: $5,019,735.   Feared.  11 for 40 with 12 walks in the regular season, 8 RBIs anyway.  Playoffs? 6 for 15, 2 walks. Looks like the bat of a future star.  Fielding? 3 for 11 in caught stealing, 3 passed balls, no errors.

1 (14): Jett Williams, SS, high school: $3.9 million.  8 for 32, double, triple, HR, 4 walks, 6 steals, HBP 3 times, 2 sac flies, just 6 Ks in 41 PAs.   A regular variety show, one I look forward to when the sequel comes out in spring 2023.  I hear Jett is getting filled up with rocket fuel for 2023.

2 (52): Blade Tidwell, RHP, college: $1,850,000. Pitched great - 5 outings, 9.1 IP, 11 Ks, 1.93 in the regular season, then 9.2 scoreless innings in the St Lucie playoffs, with 5 hits, 2 walks, and 13 Ks.  

2C (75): Nick Morabito, OF, high school: $1,000,000.  Rough debut.  2 for 22, with 14 Ks.  But he's young (and a millionaire).

3 (90): Brandon Sproat, RHP, college: Did not sign (Bum!)

4 (119): Jacob Reimer, 3B, high school: $775,000. 6 for 23, with a HR and seven RBIs!

5 (149): D'Andre Smith, SS, college: $379,400. 11 for 50, but 4 for 16 in the St Lucie playoffs.

6 (179): Tyler Stuart, RHP, college: $200,000.  He gave up 4 earned runs in 3.2 IP, but fanned 7.  Two hit batsmen and 3 walks allowed.

7 (209): Jonah Tong, RHP, high school: $226,000. Did not pitch in 2022.

8 (239): Dylan Tebrake, RHP, college: $146,430. Four outings, 4.2 IP, 8 Ks, no earned runs.  Nice.

9 (269): Chase Estep, 3B, college: $125,000.  Just .218 but also 14 walks in 25 games.  Four doubles, 4 HRs (most for any 2022 Mets draftee).  Two for 12 with 3 walks in the playoffs.

10 (299): Zebulon Vermillion, RHP, college: $20,000.  Just one scoreless inning. Hope he more than doubles his workload in 2023.

11 (329): Rhylan Thomas, OF, college: $180,000. .208 on 10 for 48, 2 RBIs, but his 8 walks gave him a .333 OBP. And 1 for 5 in post-season play.

12 (359): Paul Gervase, RHP, college: $170,000.  The 6'10" Gervase got into 8 regular season games, 11.1 IP, 16 Ks, 5.56 ERA.  

But, in the post-season, two outings, 5  IP, 2 H, 4 Ks - nice, and 10 outings?  Heavily used in his debut season.

13 (389): Dylan Ross, RHP, college: Amount unannounced. The lad did not get into a game.  

14 (419): Cameron Foster, RHP, college: Amount unannounced. The lad did not get into a game.

15 (449): Jackson Jaha, 3B, high school: Did not sign (Bum!)
 

16 (479): Jimmy Loper RHP, college: Amount unannounced.  The lad did not get into a 2022 game.

17 (509): Connor Brandon, RHP, college: $200,000. In FCL, 2 IP, 1 walk, 1 BB, 1 K, no runs. Let's go....Connor.

18 (539): Chris Santiago, RHP, college: $125,000.  3 outings, 3 hitless innings, 3 walks, 2 Ks, no runs in the FCL.

19 (569): Jackson Lovich, SS, HS:  Did not sign (Bum!) 

20 (599): Eli Ankeney, LHP, college: $100,000. 3.1 IP in FCL...no runs, no walks, no hits, 6 Ks in 3 outings.  

So, there you have it.

I look forward to much more from them in 2023.

THREE BIG QUESTIONS FOR YOU:

1) RUF VS. VIENTOS 

Vientos shakes the welcome-to-the-bigs jitters with strong games on Friday and Saturday, and in 8 plate appearances, has a single, double, HR, and 2 walks. So, with a lefty going again on Sunday, they…sit Vientos…and start the 4 for 44 veteran Ruf instead.  Mets had 19 hits, but Ruf went 0-4 and ended the day 4 for his last 48, with 4 hits and 2 RBIs over the last 44 days.  Really?

  a) Who would you have put in the lineup Sunday? (Me? Vientos 100%).

2) Jake went 1-2, with a no-decision against 3 of the worst teams in baseball over a 4 start stretch.

  a) What do you think about that failure at a key juncture, against decidedly inferior opponents? (Me? He lacks Max’s ferocity.)

3) Pete Alonso has 128 RBIs, a new Mets record.  An astonishing 23 HRs and 72 RBIs in 77 road games, just 16 HRs and 56 RBIs in 76 home games.  Lindor has 14/57 on the road, 11/46 at home.

  a) Should Citifield fences be moved in to accommodate these phenomenal Mets' sluggers, to allow them to rightfully push their numbers to Ruthian heights? (Me? Yes.  Moving the fences in is a no-brainer).  As far as Alonso is concerned, it took the Mets 14 seasons to have their first 100 RBI season (Staub - 1975 - 105 RBIs), and finally, another mediocre all-time team record (124 RBIs) gets toppled.  Previously, Pete crushed the awful 41 HR team record by hitting 53 in 2019.  Love that Pete.

2023 Draft Prospect - RHP/1B - Bryce Eldridge

Bryce Eldridge 

RHP/1B

 

9-18-22 - Matt Collier @reillocity 

ICYMI, Bryce Eldridge went to the plate ZERO times during the 4 intrasquad games of USA 18U Training Camp that trimmed the 40 invitees to 20 World Cup rosterees. He pitched in relief twice well enough to win a spot via that route, then became squad's first baseman by default. 

                                    WBSC @WBSC 

                                Congratulations to Bryce Eldridge on winning the                                         MVP Award!

9-15-22 -    Nathan Rode @NathanRode 

Oh mama... Bryce Eldridge just cleared the batter's eye. 107 mph and 449 feet. Team USA is on the board. 6-2. 

                    Matt Collier @reillocity

USA 18U Intrasquad Trials G2 

6’7” Bryce Eldridge pitched 7th (final) inning, pairing 93-94 mph armside fastball w/ 81-83 big breaker. Here are pitches 6-17 (2 swinging K around a bat-shattering 5-3 GO) after a 5th-pitch Ball 4 hit leadoff man (yes, fastball to RHB). https://t.co/aobCUpp5mZ  

John Nolan  @John_G_Nolan 

Remember the name Bryce Eldridge 

The 6-foot-7, 17-year-old first baseman / pitcher from Virginia, who’s committed to play next year for Alabama, hit the longest home run I’ve ever called at any level 

 

9-13-22 - Perfect Game Florida @Florida_PG 

Bryce Eldridge ('23 VA) has been up to 95 on the bump, but has just as much intriguing upside w/ the bat. Barrel skills & obvious power projection to 6'7" frame.  https://t.co/ZWQputYVFE 

Mike's Mets - The Crossroads

 

By Mike Steffanos

Whether or not Jacob deGrom elects to return after this season, the Mets' future still looks great.

As I watched the New York Mets drop Saturday's contest in Oakland, the more hopeless the game became, the more my mind drifted to other thoughts. Watching Jacob deGrom struggle brought me back to the early years of my baseball fandom. Specifically, I recalled how it felt watching the great Tom Seaver occasionally toss up a stinker. Actually, that was even tougher because I was a kid and truly worshipped Seaver as a hero. There's nothing tougher than a kid witnessing a hero unmasked as a mere mortal. Hell, I still felt some of that seeing deGrom battered around by a bunch of palookas, and I'm in my 60s now. But that's baseball.

Seeing Jacob deGrom looking vulnerable and quite imperfect was a reminder that he is a human and subject to the same forces that define life for all of us. It also points out that deGrom, who will pitch at age 35 next season, is not a no-brainer for the large contract he will surely receive from the Mets or some other club. And don't get me wrong, I am not reading more into a bad performance than it should merit. Even the greatest baseball players have suffered performances that they would rather forget. But anyone that signs deGrom after this season will fully understand the risk involved.

The risks in signing deGrom start with the risk of injury. I understand that the stress reaction in his scapula this spring was a fluke. Still, thanks to the long rehab from that injury, deGrom has 10 starts this season with only 9 games left to be played. Jake only made 15 starts last year and 12 in the pandemic season. He's made less than 40 starts in the past three seasons. It really remains to be determined just how many starts he's capable of making going forward.

Also, 35 is old for a pitcher, particularly a power pitcher. Sure, there are other great pitchers who have thrived in their late 30s because they've been willing to make changes to their game. The Astros' Justin Verlander and our own Max Scherzer are two examples of that. But they are notable exceptions to the rule. You could make a case for Jake being a good candidate for that — great athlete, didn't pitch a lot as a youngster, only just over 1,300 MLB innings — but the risk is high for a pitcher his age nonetheless.

Age is the one certainty to rob any great athlete of his greatness. Tom Seaver was 32 when the Mets traded him. He had some decent years with the Reds. He won 21 games that season, 7 with the Mets and 14 with the Reds. It was the 5th time in his career he accomplished that, but it was also the last time. Seaver was 108-92 with a 3.49 ERA after that point. He was good, but never again great.

Willie Mays is inarguably one of the greatest ballplayers of all time. His last full year with the Giants was 1971 when he was 40 years old. In 537 PA, Mays slashed .271/.425/.482, good for an OPS+ of 158 in an era still dominated by pitchers. He was still pretty good the following year after being traded to New York, with an OPS+ of 145 over 242 PA with the Mets. But it was still obvious that he was approaching the finish line. Mays was a shadow of the player he once was when he hung it up in 1973. His greatness held off time for quite a while, but time always wins in the end. It will eventually catch up to Verlander and Scherzer, just as surely as it will with Jacob deGrom.

You can't wander through any scattered corner of the internet without coming across rumors that Jacob deGrom will be leaving the Mets for Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or the Texas Rangers. While deGrom has kept his thoughts to himself other than acknowledging that he will opt out, there's no shortage of those willing to prognosticate into that vacuum. They know very well it baits Mets fans to read about deGrom departing at the end of this season.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Mack - Prospect Report

 9-23-22 - PG - https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=21278&s=03 - 

Dennis Helwig (2023, Mokena, Ill.) a 6-foot-7 right-handed pitcher with an intriguing present three-pitch mix. Up to 92 with the fastball this weekend, with additional analytical characteristics that help the pitch play beyond the velocity. Hides the baseball well, gets well above-average extension out front and the pitch comes in on a deceptive downhill plane with movement. Threw the changeup and slider in advantage counts for quality pitches. Over 70 percent strikes in the outing this weekend. Really impressive at Kernels with plenty more to come. Committed to Notre Dame.

 

9-23-22 - Ben Badler @BenBadler 

No. 2 pitcher in the new 2023 draft rankings, Wake Forest RHP Rhett Lowder. 

First team All-American up to 97 mph, a ton of swing-and-miss on his changeup.

 

9-20-22 - WBSC @WBSC 

The defining moment for the U-18 Baseball World Cup Champions. 

Christian Rodriguez relieved after the suspension in No-Out and bases loaded situation and didn't accept any run to keep USA in the game. 

The definition of clutch performance. 

 

9-20-22 - Jheremy Brown @JBrownPG 

Yesterday @JMAC_PG & I released our Top 20 Prospect List from the NECBL, led by GT Baseball LHP Camron Hill who took his game to the next level this summer & should be an impact arm this spring. 

 

9-20-22 - NECBL Top Prospects - https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=21258  

No. 1 Prospect, 2021: Travis Honeyman, OF, Ocean State (Boston College) 

 

9-19-22 - 9-19-22 - Florida Paces Nation with Three Top-20 College Prospects - https://floridagators.com/news/2022/9/20/baseball-florida-paces-nation-with-three-top-20-college-prospects -

 

2. Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee

While there's some debate about the top position player in the college class, Dollander is clearly the best pitcher. In his first season at Tennessee after transferring from Georgia Southern, he captured SEC pitcher of the year honors by going 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and a 108/13 K/BB ratio in 79 innings. He throws strikes with four pitches, the best of which are a mid-90s fastball that reaches 99 mph with carry and a mid-80s slider that touches 91.

 

9-9-22 - 2023 OVERALL RANKINGS UPDATE

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/2023-Overall-Rankings-Update-7531924608?s=03 

 

COLIN HOUCK SS / 3B / PARKVIEW, GA / 2023

Rankings  STATERANK: 2 / POS: 2 OVERALLRANK: 14 / POS: 4

Houck’s status as a 3-star quarterback made him a high profile dual-sport target for many schools, but his stellar showing this summer might ultimately steer him towards focussing all of his attention on the diamond in the future. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound shortstop checks plenty of boxes on the diamond thanks to his elite athleticism (6.6-runner, 90 mph across). His ability to impact the baseball from the right side with effortless power is what is sure to excite MLB scouts along with a poised demeanor and innate ability to slow the game down while playing fast. Houck committed to Mississippi State at the end of the summer. 

 

9-7-22 -  Top 20 high school prospects for '23 Draft

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-high-school-draft-prospects-2023 - 

11. Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian HS (Fla.)

Soto checks off a lot of boxes, from his 6-foot-5 athletic frame to his stuff to the fact he’ll still be 17 at next year’s Draft. His fastball is already 94-98 mph with glimpses of excellent command. He’ll flash a plus slider and a very good splitter he calls a changeup. 

 

2022 Florida Top Prospect Games -

https://www.perfectgame.org/events/Showcases/TopProspectList.aspx?event=53252&s=03 - 

Keeton Burroughs  SS - 2023 - Odessa, FL

Uncommitted

Burroughs impressed both on the dirt and at the plate on the weekend. The feeds were clean and the throws were accurate from short stop. His direct path and loose hands in the box allowed him to show off his line drive approach during BP and in game.

Paul Articulates – Close the deal

As the New York Mets close in on a division championship, leading the Braves by 1.5 games with 8 to play and both teams having clinched at least a wild card, it is worth a peak into how the upcoming weeks may play out.

There are four National League teams that are locks for the playoffs (Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Cardinals) and three (Padres, Phillies, Brewers) fighting for the last two spots.  The Dodgers and the NL East winner will start with a bye while the other four teams will face off in three game series hosted by the team with the best seed.  That will be followed by a five game NLDS and then a seven game NLCS series to qualify a team for the World Series.  

The numbers 1, 2, and 3 seeds are the division winners so the NL East runner-up will become a 4 seed even if they finish with a better record than the Cardinals. The 4 seed is then on a collision course with the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Against the seven teams contending for the six playoff spots, the Mets have had very favorable results.  They have accumulated a record of 38 wins and 23 losses, outscoring their opponents 277-253 with three games left to play against the Braves.

The Mets are 9-7 against the Braves so far

The Mets were 4-3 against the Dodgers this season

The Mets were 5-2 against the Cardinals this season

The Mets were 2-4 against the Padres this season

The Mets were 14-5 against the Phillies this season

The Mets had a winning record against potential playoff teams in every month this year except July when they only played the three game series in San Diego, losing two of three.

All this amounts to nothing but a confidence builder heading into October, as you win in the playoffs or go home.  So what are the chances for the Mets to win in October (and November)?  They have proven that they can play against the good teams from the aforementioned statistics.  They have a solid pitching rotation with two of the best pitchers in baseball that can be a decisive advantage in a playoff series whether it is 3, 5, or 7 games.  They have a fairly healthy roster, with fewer injury issues than most of their competition.  The only thing they don’t have right now that is necessary for a run at the title is momentum – they have continued to win the games necessary to stay ahead of the Braves, but have also lost some head-scratching games against bad teams.  

Here’s how their NL competitors are stacking up:

The Dodgers continue to win a lot of games, winning six series in September, but only sweeping one (Giants).  Pitchers Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Daniel Hudson, and Blake Trienen are on the injured list while their starting position players are all fairly healthy.  Probably the biggest piece of adversity they face is the recent demotion of Craig Kimbrel from closer.  He has been ineffective in that role and manager Dave Roberts has chosen to use a “closer by committee“approach.  That’s pretty dangerous going into the tight games that playoff series typically feature.

The Braves are showing some cracks, as starter and rookie of the year candidate Spencer Strider has now been placed on the 15-day IL with oblique soreness.  Pitcher Mike Sikora ended his comeback from a long bout with injuries when he was recently shut down for the season.  Meanwhile on the field, Ozzie Albies broke his finger one day after coming off the IL and he is now down for at least the regular season.  Ronald Acuna has been missing games recently, as he may have been activated too soon from a variety of lower body injuries.  Matt Olsen is in a prolonged slump, Kelly Jansen is blowing saves, and the incredibly hot Braves seem to be cooling off recently.

The Cardinals have had a solid month of September, expanding their lead in the NL Central division, but against potential playoff teams, they have gone 3-5 this month.  St. Louis may be the healthiest of the playoff teams, as only lightly-used pitcher Drew VerHagen and Left Fielder Tyler O’Neill are on the injured list.  We all know about the resurgence of Albert Pujols in the second half, and the pitching seems to be very solid.  The Cards do not have a closer problem like the Dodgers and Braves, as Ryan Helsey is sporting a 1.32 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.

The Padres are in good shape to make the playoffs although they have probably been the biggest MLB disappointment in the 2nd half as they continued to load up on star caliber players at the trade deadline but could not translate that into a winning surge.  The Padres are 21 games behind the Dodgers in the West and are clinging to the second wild card by 1½ games over the Phillies.  One of the big trades back in July sent the Padres closer Taylor Rogers to the Brewers for Josh Hader.  Hader had been a dominant left-handed pitcher for years, but upon arriving in San Diego he failed to perform, losing his closer role.  Meanwhile, Juan Soto has not played like the generational player that everyone coveted and acquisitions Josh Bell and Brandon Drury also have not impressed.  They still have a dangerous team, but just can’t find the mojo.

The Phillies are up and down lately, struggling to find some momentum.  They are 10-11 in September, but that included a five-game winning streak and a five-game losing streak.  The Mets dominated the season series against the Phillies 14-5, but most of those games were in the first half of the year.  Bryce Harper is back in the lineup and most of the lineup is healthy with the exception of their bullpen.  Brad Hand and Corey Knebel are both on the IL.

The Brewers are 13-11 in September and are also struggling to find some momentum, though they have recently recovered against the Reds.  They have a losing record against all of the potential playoff teams, and if they didn’t have six of their remaining eight games against the Marlins and D-Backs, I would write them off as a playoff team.

So here we are in the stretch run, with 8 games to go and the Mets with a slight lead against the suddenly vulnerable Braves.  Their three games series this coming weekend will be a pivotal match-up as it will likely determine who gets a first-round bye and who has to face the Dodgers and who faces the Cardinals.  The Mets seem to have many factors in their favors when considering team health, starting pitching, and their closer.  However, history has shown that the team that makes it through the playoff gauntlet and succeeds in the World Series is often the team that is “on a run”.  The Mets can build that kind of momentum with some big wins in Atlanta coming up so they are going to have to put their best forward.  Let’s go Mets!

Reese Kaplan -- You May Not Recognize the 2023 Mets Roster

With eight games left on the schedule the Mets need to decide what went right and what went wrong during this 2022 season.  Obviously the starting pitching, when healthy, was quite good.  Keeping them healthy is not really an issue as it may turn out that the existing rotation is gone with the close of the season.  It appears that the potential impending free agent opportunity for pitchers with good stat sheets on a winning ballclub means a payday potential that might indeed be too tempting for players to ignore.

Then there is the bullpen which has been mostly horrific due to injuries and slow recoveries.  Look down the list past Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino and it appears that there will be quite a few players that contributed to the relief pitching malaise.  Some of them won't be here at year's end, some shouldn't be here and some may be worth retaining.  

How would the Mets have fared without Joely Rodriguez, Tommy Hunter, Chasen Shreve, Adonis Medina, Trevor May, Mychal Givens and others?  Some arms are incompletes like Drew Smith, Tylor Megill and David Peterson.  Some are sure free agents like starter wannabe Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. 

Take a look at the curious case of Adam Ottavino.  Overall he has had a terrific season for the Mets (despite his recent hiccup along with all other pitchers against Oakland).  He is 5-3 with a 2.10 ERA over 61 games with a 1.000 WHIP and nearly a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At just $4 million for his age 36 season, the Mets couldn't have asked for more.  The question becomes how much is he worth at age 37 and onward?  

I could surely see him getting the kind of contract Trevor May commanded for his two injury-plagued and mediocre years in Queens.  With the many others slated to leave it's better to hang onto someone who proved what he can do in New York.  Seth Lugo earned just $2.925 million for his efforts so surely at age 32 he's going to try to cash in big time.  

On the offensive side of the ledger you have to be very happy with what production you received from Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil.  Mark Canha's power was down but the RBIs were there and the batting average is up.  He's a keeper.  Eduardo Escobar mostly struggled but should finish the year in the 20+ HR range with 65+ RBIs.  It's under what they wanted but the hot late season surge suggests that he might be decent value in 2023.  The catchers are still an offensive mess and Francisco Alvarez is not yet ready for a full time gig.  

The player the Mets really need to analyze big time is Brandon Nimmo.  Yes, he's an on-base machine and for the 2022 season he's been uncharacteristically healthy, appearing in 143 of 153 games with power and RBIs.  The defense has taken a big step forward from barely adequate to solid.  The question is how much is he worth?  

Right now he's earning $7 million as he approaches free agency in his age 30 season.  For comparison's sake, Starling Marte was signed at age 33 for $15.75 million in year one of a four year deal that pays $20.75 million for each of the next three seasons.  He averages 5.0 WAR per 162 games whereas Nimmo is at 4.4 over the same metric.  

That would suggest Nimmo is worth perhaps $15 million per season, below what Marte makes despite being younger.  Injury history should also suppress his value.  He may simply look to sell himself to the highest bidder, in which case the Mets need to find a new player to stand between Canha and Marte.  

The other position that's hard to read is DH.  Needless to say, the Mets did not get out of Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf the aggregate performance they expected.  Brett Baty obviously started off with a bang over the fence in his first AB then struggled before getting hurt.  

Mark Vientos struggled but of late seems to be slowly adjusting to a higher level of pitching.  It is indeed possible the Mets might want to obtain a high value DH for the future going forward which would render some of their younger players as trade bait.  

On the whole, you have to be happy with what the Mets accomplished on the field, enjoying a postseason berth for the first time since 2016.  Bringing in Buck Showalter and spending Steve Cohen's money has helped deliver competitiveness when the club was mostly sleepwalking through the past several seasons.  Do expect a lot of new faces for 2023 out of roster construction necessity.  

Tom Brennan - Fragility and Supposed Greatness

The Greats Bring the Hammer Down

I sincerely and truly was about to write that “Mets fan should take it for granted that, when healthy, the duo of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer may be the GOAT, the greatest of all time.”

But, facing the worst hitting home team in baseball in many years, Oakland, with a chance to bring the hammer down, and to keep the lead over the Braves at 2.5 games as another game passed from the calendar…with a 3-0 first inning lead Saturday, Jake…choked.

Is it sacrilegious to say that?

The adulated man has just a .594 career win %. Pretty good…but not great.  Rick Reed had a better win %.

The man who receives virtually universal adulation has started 208 MLB games and won just 82 of them. That’s under 40%. Against under .500 teams, he wins roughly 65% of his decisions and 46 of his 105 starts. 

Compare to Max, who has won nearly 74% of his decisions against sub .500 teams (117-42). And, I have very little doubt, above 80% against <.500’s since he truly became Max at age 27 (before 2012, he was just 36-35). 

Max has a killer instinct that Koufax had. Jake does not. Sorry, that’s my take. Koufax was 31-4 against the lowly Mets and Astros. Oakland is lowly, but Jake couldn’t get it done.

The Cubs are lowly, too. On Sept 13, Jake lost to them, too. Against weak hitting Pittsburgh, also lowly, on Sept 18, he was freaky good for 5, with 13 Ks, only to cough up the 3-0 lead by allowing 3 sixth inning runs in a game ultimately won by the Mets with a late surge, 7-3, where JDG got an ND. 

That’s 3 times he couldn’t get it done, in the Sept stretch run, vs. lousy teams.

In 2015’s World Series, after the Mets lost game 1 to the underdog Royals, Jake lost game 2, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings in a must-win game.  Choked.

Cue in the excuses…he’s coming off injury…he’s fragile, etc. I reply, he lacks a hammer in his toolbox.

That’s all I have to say. Hope this didn’t make you choke on your breakfast.