Tom Brennan: Why Not a Killer Pen, & Use Megill, Peterson, Butto, Joey, & Vasil as Back-End Starters?

I even got "Dynamo Dom" Hamel in this article.

Warren Spahn may have averaged 280 innings a season for a stretch of nearly 2 decades, but starters today no longer throw 300 innings.

Or, for that matter, 200 innings. (Just 5 MLB starters in fact reached 200 IP; those 5 averaged just 205 IP).

Safe to say that many rotation starters these days don't throw 150 innings.

Mets? 

Workhorse Kodai Senga in 2023 threw 166 innings (40th highest in the majors, but had he thrown 180 innings, just 14 more, he'd have been tied for 24th most). 

He was followed by towering Tylor Megill at 126 innings.

Starters? In restaurants, they're called appetizers.

Those are usually consumed in a flash.  So are many starters' starts.

If that is the case, why not seek a killer pen instead, and go entirely with in-house starters?

Let the in-house starters try to keep you in the game for 5 innings, followed by a pen party, with a pen led by these 6?

Diaz, Hader, Ottavino, Robertson, Raley, and Smith?

Can we assume for a moment (humor me, please) that we get some reasonable durability out of Senga, Quintana and Severino?

And now you have the decent back end arm of Adrian Houser, too.  That's 4 starters. and likely 550 innings or so covered.

My take beyond that?  

I like Megill for 5 innings; "4-0 in 2023" Joey for 6 innings; Peterson (once healed) for 5-6 innings.  

(When they don't start, they can replicate swing man Trevor Williams and relieve.)

I am not as convinced about Senor Butto, but he pleasantly surprised me in 2023, and maybe he will do so again in 2024.

(Note: MLB Trade Rumors estimates Hader at a lofty 6 years, $110 million, with Texas seemingly the most interested.  If not him, what about 34 year old free agent reliever Hector Neris, who was excellent in 2023?  

Also, Adam Ottavino opted out from the Mets after the season because of Buck/Billy turmoil, lack of clarity on Mets' plans for 2024 success, and Stearns' lack of guarantees on not trading him mid-season, so I am guessing Ottavino may be reluctant to sign up with my grand plan. 

Which brings me to...

Mike Vasil??  

Yeah, I know Vasil's 5.30 ERA in AAA last year was unsightly, but keep in mind they used the tighter computerized strike zone in 2023 in AAA.  

Here's an example of how it affected him.  

Vasil walked just 8 batters in 51 AA innings in 2023.

But Vasil walked 38 in 73 innings in AAA in 2023. 

Was it the tighter AAA robot zone that caused the spike in walks?  Probably.  In fact, most likely.

Yes, Vasil's AAA ERA was fairly ugly, but it is an AVERAGE. Its ugliness was due in large part to two very bad outings in early September, in which he went 6.2 innings and allowed 11 earned runs.  

Without those 2 stinkers, his AAA ERA was a decent 4.36, in a league where (undoubtedly due to the robot zone) ERAs were very high.  

In fact, the median team ERA in the International League in "robot 2023" was a PCL-like 5.08, and the median walks per 9 innings were 4.76. 

The year prior, when non-robot umps called balls and strikes, pitchers fared much better: the median team ERA was a far lower 4.60, and the median walks per 9 were just 3.98.

Last I checked, while some major league umps may be real stiffs, they are human, not robots. 

Right after the duo of early September stinkers, Vasil had his final 2 FINE outings of 2023, in which he allowed 6 hits and 3 earned runs in 10 innings while fanning EIGHTEEN.  

Bums don't fan 18 in 10 innings, folks.  Agreed?

SO...why shouldn't Mike Vasil be ready to be a decent, cheap starter in the big leagues fairly soon?  Say, by June? 

The day after writing this about Vasil, I saw Anthony DiComo write this about "the" Mets prospect to watch:

Mets: RHP Mike Vasil
For a team in need of all the pitching help it can get, Vasil (Mets' No. 9 prospect per MLB Pipeline) is of particular interest. 

The organization’s eighth-round Draft pick in 2021, Vasil thrived in his first taste of the upper Minors last season, producing a 3.71 ERA over 10 starts at Double-A Binghamton. 

Although Vasil struggled a bit following a midseason promotion to Triple-A Syracuse, he still profiles as the pitching prospect most likely to make a significant impact with the big league club in 2024. 

With a strong spring, he could position himself to debut during the first half of the season.

Great minds think alike (well, his mind seems great, anyway).

Continuing on with my article:

Dom Hamel may not be far behind - consider what this intrepid reporter breathlessly reported to you in late September:

Against the hard-hitting Somerset Yanks in the AA playoffs, Hamel went 7.2 innings, allowed 3 hits, no runs, and recorded 8 Ks. 

That was after his prior 3 starts, in which he threw 14 scoreless and fanned 24. 

Brilliant 4 game stretch. 

THAT is nasty late season pitching in AA by Hamel.

Of course, pudding lovers are fairly unanimous that Christian Scott had a My-T-Fine season in 2023, even better than that of Hamel.

And Joander Suarez had a miniscule 1.98 ERA from July to season's end, AND fanned many...137 in 108 innings last season....

As my friend Rodney tells me, Suarez seems to get no respect, no respect at all.

So, to recap:

Using in-house starters only would accomplish one big thing: 

SAVE LARGE CARGO SHIPS FULL OF MOOLAH BOOLAH!

Use the unspent dough not on big ticket starters, but instead on building a killer pen, by adding Hader, Robertson, AND Ottavino.

Then let's fervently hope that Nate the Great Lavender and Mighty Tall Paul Gervase emerge from the minors to give them two more solid pen arms in 2024, to join a few of the other recently acquired but unnamed-here relievers (you can look their names up if so inclined, in Reese's fine article earlier today) who have pitched in the majors already with varying degrees of competence.

What, you ask, did lefty Nate and righty Paul combine to do in minors relief in 2023?  

Killed it, frankly, I'd say - but you be the judge:

182 Ks in 111 IP ("sit down, sucker"), 2.50 ERA, 8-5, 14 saves.

So...

Why not roll with this "in-house starters with a killer pen" plan, rather than paying exorbitant multiple millions for veteran starters who might reach their "old-guys-get-hurt expiration date" before the end of spring training, which Quintana almost did in 2023 and Cookie and (to a lesser degree) Justin pretty much did?  

Heck, look at time lost due to health woes of former Mets Jakey Breaky and Max (oh, my aching back!) Scherzer. 

When it comes to my ballplayers? 

I prefer the young and agile... 

....to the old and fragile.

As I see it...Vets? 

They belong in Animal Hospitals. Woof Woof. (OR "RUF RUF")

If you enjoyed this message, bark loudly.  But...wish as you might, I'm not quite done.

Apparently, the Mets' post-Yama focus is not on budget buster starters with high risk of failure, an area of failure in which the Mets tend to specialize.

So, instead thinking shorter and cheaper, the Post reported that the Mets have real interest in a guy who did THIS in the second half of 2023:

2-10, 7.13, 24 HRs allowed in 72 innings. 

Repeat after me: AH-OO-GAH!

"WHO..ON..EARTH..IS..THAT?" is what I guess you're thinking. 

That "WHO?" is Lucas Giolito, whose fastball, I read, had slowed a bit last year and who had to deal with the distractions of getting divorced last year and being traded twice, too, to the Angels and Guardians, with whom he was 2-9, ERA around 7.00.

He did have a solid first half of season, but still allowed a whopping 41 HRs in 2023 and was 3-11, 6.07 in road games in 2023 (even though over his career, he is a better road than home pitcher).  He has allowed 166 HRs in his career in 1,013 innings, quite a high rate.

He has thrown very little in his career in Queens. But the innings he did throw in Queens weren't pretty.

In 7.1 career innings in Citifield, his ERA is 14.73 with 5 HRs allowed.  Not encouraging.  

If they sign him, should they move the fences back to the original Citifield dimensions?  That would help hold down the HRs quite a bit.

Maybe a fresh start in Queens would revive him. Maybe. Sometimes, players rebound.  If the Mets do sign him, hopefully it would be at reasonable cost and just one year.

If not, might the Mets not be better off rushing Mike Vasil a bit?  Maybe.  

Or using Butto as a starter?  Perhaps.

Or 4-0, 2.89 Joey?  Uhh, yeah.

Or...passing on the towering Gio and looking elsewhere at the starter free agent lesser-tier market?  We'll see what Mr. Stearns has up his sleeves.

P.S. Let's not forget Bryce Montes de Oca, throwing perhaps the nastiest pitch in baseball history with his two foot reverse break on a 102 MPH fastball, viewable on Tik Tok, which I don't use.  Mr. Nasty may be ready again in mid-2024.

Reese Kaplan -- The Holidays are Over. Where are Our Gifts?

OK, the Christmas holiday has come and gone...Yoshinobu Yamamoto is not a Met.  So what is Plan B?

To read a great many accounts, the Mets are disinterested in both Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and World Series Champion Jordan Montgomery.  Part of the rationale is age.  

Both pitchers are north of 30 and would be looking for 5 year plus deals which may be good in the beginning but likely would not in the end.  Part of the issue is inconsistency.  

Snell has had his share of on-again/off-again seasons in the majors.  Montgomery has recently come to a strong past couple of seasons but for his career he's been at best a 3rd starter.  Now having finished on top he's going to be looking for first starter money.  

Finally, there's the issue of draft pick compensation due to other teams if you sign someone who has turned down a Qualifying Offer.

Now for a team that gave $86 million plus to two starting pitchers last season plus the return of Carlos Carrasco, you would think these financial implications are not that big a deal.  After all, if you were willing to set a record level payroll with record level penalty fees to the league and finished well below .500, why all of the sudden is spending more like something out of the Wilpon days?  

For fans and media, the Mets team philosophical approach on filling the roster is somewhere between incredulous and hostile.

Of course, the Mets need a lot more than more starting pitching.  It is indeed possible they could go into 2024 with the group of Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill and Jose Butto (with David Peterson as a long term resource currently in the recovery room).  That approach would be the polar extreme and likely not going to happen.  

Butto has not proven himself in the long term.  Lucchesi has had some health issues.  Megill hasn't delivered consistency and you have the health of Luis Severino to consider as well.  

They recently added Adrian Houser by way of trade, but he's a career 4.00 pitcher with mediocre control and not much strikeout ability which could account for his sub-.500 record.  That's not exactly a group with spares the caliber of Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt nor Marcus Stroman. 

For as much neglect as the starting rotation has received, it likely pales next to the restructuring of the bullpen.  Here the Mets have been far more active than they have in the starting pitching market, but to what end?   After you get past closer Edwin Diaz and southpaw Brooks Raley, your next man up is Drew Smith who faltered quite a bit in 2023.  

After that it's a rehash of returning pitchers who have never delivered on a full season basis like Grant Hartwig, Sean Reid-Foley, Reed Garrett, Phil Bickford and Josh Walker.  Then they supplemented this laundry list of would be relievers by adding Austin Adams, Jorge Lopez and Yohan Ramirez.  

Hmmm...there isn't an Adam Ottavino nor David Robertson caliber pitcher in this entire group.

For folks gnashing their teeth over pitching, it gets even worse when it comes to offense.  

Yes, the club apparently is planning to let some of the kids be the first round of attack on the daily lineup with Brett Baty projected to start at 3rd base and Mark Vientos probably leading the charge as a DH while Ronny Mauricio does injury rehab.  The additions to the roster include Joey Wendle, Zack Short, Cooper Hummel and Tyrone Taylor.  They would join the return of D.J. Stewart.  

Take a quick glance at the free agent list of available players and you're struck by the fact that Cody Bellinger, J.D. Martinez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Amed Rosario, Justin Turner, Rhys Hoskins, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham and others are still available for dollars and no player resources.  

Don't take it as a gross criticism of Joey Wendle et al who have been added to the roster, but you'd think it's probably well past time to begin looking to either short term deals for higher caliber major league players who are a bit older or longer deals for ones who are younger.

Let's not even get started on the subject of trades.  It's not to put down the likes of Tyrone Taylor, but you have to wonder if anyone on the other 29 ballclubs wants any of the Mets organization players to provide in return someone ready to help in the starting lineup?  Right now the Mets are light on hitters either due to experience or health.  

Recently I went around and around with some friends about the new wave of players coming up through the minors which is indeed a very good thing, but it does start appearing as if they're waiting for both development and ascension of this group as well as the stellar projected roster of free agents in 2025.  What does that mean for 2024?  

Let's hope David Stearns knows, but for now we don't see even a matching offense for 2023 nor an equal number of highly credible starting pitchers.  Granted, they did not all remain healthy nor do as expected, but what can we expect from the folks currently taking up 36 spots on the 40 man roster?

Let's start the New Year off with a bang (and not just from fireworks).

Tom Brennan: Updated Retrospective on Mets’ 2015 Draft

 

Hope you all had a wonderful, calorie-filled Christmas.  

Seems Santa isn't the only one making the rounds...

I've been hearing that several folks, including my nephew and his wife, got a visit from the COVID Fairy (no, not Anthony Fauci, from the bug).  We stopped by another relative's home and 2 were sick upstairs and others were hacking downstairs.  So please be aware, and if someone is hacking near you, step out of the batter's box and call a time out.

Continuing my updated retrospective Mets draft series…I thought it would be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5 in years 2005 through 2021, how those draftees panned out, and which of them (and which from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

I've been doing these retrospectives a year at a time.

Today?  

The Mets' 2015 Draft.

Gosh, the first 5 rounds of 2015's draft were DREADFUL in terms of the real purpose of drafts, which is to help the mother ship Mets at some point!

Round 1 - pass!  We didn't get to play in any reindeer games.

The prior two years' 1st round grabs were Dom Smith and Michael Conforto, but you need a first round pick to get 1st round quality.  

The Mets didn't keep theirs. The loss of this one? 

It was due to them getting David Wright's buddy Michael Cuddyer from Colorado, who hit .330+ in two straight years in hitters' paradise Colorado, but just .259 in his one (final) Mets season, as an achy mid-30s vet.  

The aging Cuddyer hit an inflated .322 in games played in Coors Field, but .275 everywhere else.  I wonder if the Wilpons grasped the Coors Effect?  Cuddyer was a very rare bird...skiiped the 2nd year of his 2 year Mets deal and retred after his fading year # 1.

But....losing that first round pick for Cuddyer? 

Dumb…de…dumb…dumb.

I wonder if they might have grabbed 24th overall Walker Buehler with that pick if they had skipped signing Cuddyer and kept the selection. Before losing 2022 and 2023 to TJS, Walker was 46-16, and Buehler is returning to the Dodgers for 2024.

Round 2 - Desmond Lindsay - he never got it going when he wasn't hurt - and he was hurt an awful lot.  Hit about .175 in roughly 110 at bats in 2019 and 2021.  Used up all his sick days. 

873 minor league ABs, 302 Ks.

Nice try.  But a terrible pick.

Round 3 - Max Wotell - briefly showed promise, then got hurt. 3-6, 6.81 in 74 minor league innings.  Interestingly, he was part of the Mets' trade to acquire Jay Bruce. Since the Mets couldn't keep this Max, they made up for it a bit by signing Max Scherzer.

Bust pick, that the Mets at least got some value for via trade

Round 4 - David Thompson - he was simply injured too often, hampering any effort to build on early minors success.  A career .507 slug % and a fine RBI guy - he knocked in 95 in just 116 games in 2016.  But just 1,823 at bats in total from 2015-21, and only 218 games from 2017 thru 2021.  But there are a lot of "what-if" guys who never make it.  

Health matters.  His baseball health was lousy.

Not a terrible pick for the 4th round. But not a successful one, either.  

Ultimately, if a 4th rounder fails to make it, I guess the pick is a bust.

Round 5 - Tom Szapucki - drafted out of Fragile High School, he turned out to be more fragile than glass. Briefly, in the majors with SFG, the Szapper looked a tad promising. End result?

Bust pick. 

He did, however, help the Mets trade for Darin Ruf. 

OK, THAT MAKES THE SZAPPER A DOUBLE BUST PICK.

After Round 5?  Pat Mazeika went in the 8th round, and picked the right position, catcher, to make it to the big leagues in a marginal way. 

For a selection as low as the 8th round, the choice of Patty Lad was (I guess) a decent pick. 

A round later, Kevin Kaczmarski was drafted.  A decent hitter with limited power, akin to Eric Campbell, KK only had a walk in 5 plate appearances in the majors.  Years of minor league effort, just one walk, no hits.  Worth it?  I dunno.  You'd have to ask him.

While many minor league 9th rounders never make it, going 0-4 with a walk in your career is not a quality pick.

2015 was simply a dreadful draft year, stifled by injuries.  

“Urine-poor.”  

Or something more colloquial in that regard.

When it comes to draft picks, it certainly seems the Mets over the years have had more busts than a lengthy burlesque show.

2016?  

My next article, friends. 

Coming soon to a web page near you.

BUT BEFORE I GO...MINOR NEWS FLASH!

On Christmas, joyous news came! The Mets inked Chad Smith to a minor league deal.  

In his MLB career, he is 1-3, 7.11 in 31 innings.  

Pitched poorly in AAA this season, too, so basically, this signing seems to be non-news. 

Rumor has it he considered Miami, but he heard about the problem Florida had with Hanging Chads in the 2000 presidential election and decided another state made more sense. 

Please assume he is a minor league piece only unless he experiences some sort of significant upgrade.  

Numbers over time paint a picture.  He paints, it seems, like Hunter Biden.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to all of our readers and Mets fans!  

Last season seemed like a lump of coal in the stocking with Edwin Diaz’ injury, a dismal fourth place finish, a $101M luxury tax bill, and then having to watch players in the World Series that were on our club earlier in the year.  We certainly deserved better than that but the team played hard and Steve Cohen did many of the right things to build this franchise into a future contender.  That earned the team a spot on Santa’s “nice” list this year, so we are eagerly looking forward to a season of over achievement in 2024.

Along those lines, I have some Christmas wishes for the Mets:

1. I wish for the Mets to find some diamonds in the rough that will become solid starting pitchers to fill out a rotation behind Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.  Maybe it is Adrian Houser, Joey Lucchesi, or any one of the prospects that performed well in the minors – if any one of them steps up it will be a gift to a struggling starting staff.

2. I wish for the Mets to secure a DH that will bring honor to the term “hitter”.  In recent years, the term “designated” has been the operative word in DH…as in Designated For Assignment.

3. I wish for the Mets to have the luck of the Irish in all contests against the Los Angeles Dodgers this season.  The Dodgers may have spent billions to acquire all the top free agents this offseason, but that doesn’t always translate to ‘unbeatable’ on the diamond.  The Mets and their former $43M pitchers can attest to that.  So this year, may all the bounces go the Mets’ way for a sweep of the billionaires. 

4. I wish health and success to all of the Mets’ stellar prospects, so they may reach their potential and create a pipeline of talent that builds a winner from within.

5. I wish a nice, healthy (but affordable) extension to Pete Alonso so he can play out his years in a Mets uniform setting all sorts of power records along the way.  A White Christmas is the perfect time to reward the Polar Bear!

6. And finally, the Mack’s Mets staff wishes health and happiness upon all Mets fans! They have lived through so many disappointments but still remain loyal to the Orange & Blue.  Let’s go Mets!

Reese Kaplan -- What Mets Fans Will Unwrap in the Near Future

Baseball Prospectus just released their new list of the Mets' Top Ten Prospects, many of whom were not there as recently as this time in 2022.  Those mid year trades surely loaded up the top of farm system future, though all is not a guarantee to success.  Fully half of this list is the result of payroll clearing done by former GM Billy Eppler last season in July.

1. Vaulting all the way to number one is tiny, speedy and surprisingly home run capable Jett Williams.  Obviously the name alone deserves to be on a big league diamond, but after starting off as a shortstop where he would have been blocked by Francisco Lindor, he shifted many of his games to center field where the club most definitely has more of a need.  When you look at the 20 year old's output you are immediately struck by the stolen bases.  Between three leagues in 2023 he totaled 45 base thefts in just over 400 ABs.  The next number that catches your eye is the 104 walks.  Obviously pitchers have a tougher time finding the strike zone on a 5'6" hitter, but he's obviously got a good eye as well.  Despite his size, he still managed to hit 13 home runs.  Imagine having him leading off and patrolling center field at Citifield perhaps as soon as 2025.
2. Now we start on the first of the acquisitions.  Drew Gilbert is another diminutive player who has spent time at all three outfield positions.  The 23 year old got as high as AA this past season where he hit .289 with 18 HRs and a dozen stolen bases.  He likely will increase to the 20 HR level as he matures more and could find himself as a replacement for Starling Marte when his contract ends.  
3. Also arriving at the trade deadline was Luisangel Acuna.  His brother, superstar Ronald Acuna, Jr., has already secured a Rookie of the Year, multiple All Star appearances, a Silver Slugger and an MVP.  The Mets can only hope that his DNA is in Luisangel as well.  In 2023 the younger Acuna made it to AA and hit .294 with 57 stolen bases as well as 9 long balls.  He's another in the small size set the Mets have at the top three standing at just 5'8".  He struggled a bit in Binghamton after arriving, so he may start the season there and move up to Syracuse once he proves mastery of the AA level.  
4. Also arriving in July was the first big man, 6'3" and 200 pound corner outfielder and first baseman, Ryan Clifford.  This lefty swinger is just 19 years old and combined on three teams last year to hit .262 with 24 HRs and 81 RBIs in around 400 ABs.  He's showing some major run production talent at a very young age.  This year he's likely to advance to Binghamton to start the season as he's showing some serious capability and they probably want to see how he responds to more polished pitching than he's faced in the Rookie, A and A+ levels.
5. Even bigger at 6'4" and 215 pounds is right handed pitcher Christian Scott who soared up the prospect list this past season.  How good was he?  Well, after being promoted to Binghamton the 24 year old pitched to a 4-3 record over a dozen starts with a 2.47 ERA.  He struck out 77 batters in 62 innings pitched while walking just 8.  He may start the year again in AA but expect a quick promotion to Syracuse given his age vs. the competition.  The Mets will want to see if he's for real against better hitters.  Any way you slice it, you can't over emphasize the better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio nor the unbelievable WHIP of just 0.839.  Hats off to the scouting department for selecting him in the 2021 draft.
6. As part of the David Robertson trade, the Mets received a pair of teenagers who were highly regarded.  One of them has already hit this top ten list and as a former resident of El Paso, TX  I have a soft place in my heart for anyone from the neighboring state of Chihuahua, Mexico which I could see easily from my office window as it was walking distance from downtown.  That is where Vargas is from and apparently the environment agreed with him.  Through four teams since joining professional baseball he has been pretty impressive.  His batting average is .296, he's stolen 27 bases and even managed to hit a handful of home runs.  As he matures and adds muscle he would likely produce more runs.  
7. Tommy Pham's short but productive tenure with the Mets netted them a high schooler whose future is rosy indeed.  Across three teams as a 16 year old has up 167 times.  That's roughly one third of a season's output what he did was incredible.  Extrapolate that over a full season and you would have a .291 average to go with 9 HRs, 99 RBIs and 57 stolen bases.  As an infielder those numbers are electric and now that he's a ripe old age of 17 the Mets hope he can proceed productively as he ascends the ladder towards Citifield.  
8. No one needs an introduction to former top of the heap prospect Ronny Mauricio.  His status has dropped a bit since then but 2024 was going to be his first full big league year until just recently he went down overseas with season ending surgery just like Edwin Diaz wound up missing all of 2023.  The only thing accomplished for the Mets was being given the opportunity to see if Brett Baty and Mark Vientos can produce at the highest level after having had done poorly in extended looks in 2023.
9. A little bit surprising on this list was 2023 draft pick Colin Houck who at the tender age of just 18 did not look like a first rounder.  In his brief trial in pro ball he hit just .241 with no home runs, 4 RBIs and no stolen bases.  He did get 7 walks to balance out his 29 swinging ABs, but you can't draw any definitive conclusions after someone with less than 2 weeks on his resume.  If he's as good as the Mets suspected when they chose him, then the output from the many other offensive minor league players must be decidedly worse.
10. Rounding out the top ten is another pitcher, Mike Vasil whose potential still exceeds his professional delivery.  He made it as high as Syracuse last season and has been playing in the Mets farm system since 2021 when he three seven innings for the Florida Complex League affiliate with a season ending ERA of 1.29.  He split the following year at age 22 across three teams and the ERA shot up to a still decent 3.53 combined.  Then came his work last season that included stops in Binghamton and Syracuse for a combined 26 starts.  The strikeout numbers are good with 138 in 124 innings, but it gets less impressive in other aspects of his metrics.  His walk numbers were a bit high in AAA as was his ERA that soared up to 5.35 over his 16 Syracuse starts.  He's likely returning there in 2024 to see if he can regain better command.

So there you have it -- ten gift wrapped youngsters to enjoy unwrapping at some point in the future when they're all ready to make their New York Mets major league debut.

From all of us here at Mack's Mets, enjoy your holidays!

Tom Brennan - Updated Retrospective on Mets 2014 Draft

 

I thought it might be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5, how they panned out, and which of them (including those from beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

Not to get too anciently historical, I thought I’d start at 2012 and work forward to 2022, a year at a time.

Today?  

The Mets' 2014 Draft: 

The first round brought us Michael Conforto 10th overall.  Mets' leadership was popping champagne corks when he (to their surprise and delight) slipped down to # 10 for them.  A very solid if not quite elite 10th overall pick, with 147 career homers and a 16.3 WAR so far.

HOWEVER…

Drafted a mere 3 picks after MC Hammer was All Star Trea Turner, whom Mack frequently touted as a guy to draft prior to that year’s draft. 

Trea has 33 career WAR, essentially twice that of Conforto. 

That dampens my enthusiasm over the “gleeful” Conforto pick.

Round 2 - no pick.  No pick = no fun.

Round 3 - Milton Ramos - a bust pick.  I mean really...Milton Ramos??

.241/.290/.315 in the minors.

Like so many Mets picks, he hit around .240 in the minors without power. He'd have made a fine pick several rounds later, but not the 3ed round. 

At the time, he was touted in the draft listings, I saw somewhere as high as 34th overall, and another example that the draft is a crap shoot.

Mack's take at the time was this:

Milton Ramos may be a very special player and could easily turn out to be the most talented shortstop in the Mets organization. This was a stroke of genius on draft day, who shouldn’t have been around when the 84^th pick came up. He was easily one of the top 50 ballplayers available for the draft that year.  

But…is Ramos going to be another in a serious of excellent defensive Mets shortstop prospects who get their bats knocked out of their hands by quality pitching?

Mack was right - it is hard to tell, especially for real young kids, and yes, he mostly got bats knocked out of his hands thereafter.

Round 4 had Eudor Garcia, who seemed to be an emerging hitter of some promise, but PEDs made him short-lived and submerging.  A solid .282 in 940 career ABs with 131 RBIs - then, suddenly, poof, gone.

Call his selection what you want. I'll call it: Bust pick.

Round 5 - Josh Prevost - the 6'7" pitcher was big and bad - but "bad" in a bad way, not a good way.  

Bust pick.

The only other 2014 pick that made the bigs was the traded Brad Wieck, a very tall (6'8"), very high strikeout pitcher with control issues.  He was a PTBNL in the deal that brought the Mets big hat bust wild slinger Alex Torres.  Big Brad has 89 Ks and 24 walks in 59 innings in the majors, after 459 Ks in 326 innings in the minors.  Nasty. But TJS got him; perhaps he will resurface post-surgery at age 32 in 2024. He also lost some serious time due to the following:

"(The Cubs) transferred lefty Brad Wieck from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, per a club announcement. Wieck, who is sidelined by an irregular heartbeat, will undergo an ablation procedure in an effort to address the issue, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. He had a similar procedure performed in February 2020."

I hope he makes a big comeback.

All in all, quite a terrible draft for the Mets, after the “all-too-obvious” Conforto selection. Which, compared to Trea Turner, turned out to be a less-than-optimal pick, especially since he was a huge obstacle to the Mets while playing for years with his drafting team, the Nationals.

Next up?  The 2015 Mets Draft Post-Mortem.

CABBAGE, LOTS OF CABBAGE:

From the NY Post: 

The Mets will pay a record luxury tax of $100.7 million, according to the AP, which obtained the numbers from MLB.

My Spin - Arriving DSL players

 

The Mets seemed to have had a decent return from the kids playing in the DSL league last year.

It's impossible to confirm at this point if they all will come stateside this year, but we need to review the names and early accomplishments of these guys that could produce huge benefits before the decade runs out.

Here they are:

SP Franklin Gomez - 

maybe the creme of the crop here. Gomez is a 6-0/185 LHSP that will pitch 2024 as a 19 year.old.

His 2023 DSL stats were impressive:

13-G  9-ST  5-4  2.66  1.07

50.2 IP  71-K

DSL ranking:

    #1 2.45 FIP

    #1 .202 xWOBA

    #2 38.1 CWS%

    #4 25.3 K/BB%

Did play in one game for St. Lucie late in the season.

SP Lucas Gordillo - 

6-0/180 that will pitch 2024 as a 22 year old. 2023 was his first pro season.

2023 for DSL Mets:

13--G 2-2  1.21  37.1-IP  55-K

Age a big factor here.

SP Franyel Diaz - 

6-7/210 that will play 2024 as a 19 year old. All I have on him is his 2023 DSL stat line:

12-G  10-ST  2-2  3.00  1.33

45--IP  54-K

C Julio Zayas - 

Zayes is s C/3B/1B that stands 5-11/190 and will play 2024 as an 18 year old. 

Much has been written about the heralded catcher the Mets have signed out of Latin America, but this is not one of them.

Zayas came out of nowhere to put up an excellent stat line:

176-AB  7-HR  43-RBI

307/.368/.517/.885

It will be interesting to see where he opens up in the spring and if he can continue to put up these kind of numbers.

OF Christopher Larez -

Larez is a SS/2B out of the D/R that stand 6-1/190 and will play 2024 as a 19 year old.

He was suspended during the 2023 season for PEDs. Up to then, he had 84-AB  1-HR  13-RBI

274/.351/.405/.755

He has been rated as having 5-tool potential and had a rating of 55-hit and 50-run/arm/field

OF Jeremy Rodriguez -

 this could be a big one.

Rodriguez came to the Mets last year in exchange for Tommy Pham.

He also is from the D/R and stands 6-0/170. He will play 2024 as an 18 year old.

He was the top international pick by Arizona a year back, who wrote him a check for 1.2mil.

He hit only .246 in 122-AB last season for their DSL team, but immediately came out of the gate for the DSL-METS, going 45-AB  1-HR  15-RBI  .422/.536/.771/1.247.

I do expect him to be in Florida come the spring. 

OF Branny De Oleo - 

D.O. is a 19 year old Dominican that stands 6-1/155.

Scouts clocked him with a 6.97 60-yard dash and a 92-mph throw to first.

2023 was his first pro season and he impressed;

166-AB  3-HR  25-RBI

313/.403/.476/.879

OF Jeffry Rosa - 

Truly the big dark horse on the DSL squad last season.

Rosa is a 6-1/190 20-year old Dominican that plays all three outfield positions.

2023 was his second DSL season and he led the league with 15 home runs.

But that wasn't his biggest accomplishment. 

He did that in only 148 AT BATS.

He also severely cut back his previous high strikeout rate.

Full line;

148-AB  15-HR  39- RBI

.277/.400/.669/1.069

OF Anthony Baptist - 

this is the 5th outfielder I am featuring in this post.

Obviously only three can start for the FCL Mets so this list is fluid.

Will say this. The signing bonus money given Baptist puts him high on the list, even though his 2023 season (very slow start) was fair at best:

MLB.com said this about him prior to his signing:

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

One of the fastest players in the class, Baptist is also one of the most exciting.

He’s expected to start in center field and stay at the position as he develops, primarily because of his speed, but also because he has the potential to be an above-average defender. He can chase balls down in the outfield and like all prospects his age, he is working on fine-tuning his routes and angles.

The hope is that his speed -- he has been consistently clocked at 6.1 seconds in the 60-yard-timed run -- will also come into play on the bases and he can develop into a base-stealer in the future. When you consider his emerging bat-to-ball skills and overall athleticism, he could slot in near the top of the lineup.

He trains with Pedro ”Nube” Nivar, a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program, in the Dominican Republic

OF Heriberto Rincon -

Yes,,, another outfielder.

In 2023, the 19 year old Domincan Rincon went :

.301/.398/.374/.772

155-AB 1-HR 21-RBI 

Perfect Game said this about him prior to his signing:

Heriberto Rincon is a 2022 OF with a 6-1 155 lb. frame from Santo Domingo, NC who attends Haras Nacionales. Large, athletic frame with present strength proportioned well throughout which plays well on all phases of his game. Ran a 7.03 60-yard dash. primary outfield, moves well to the ball, shows big arm strength and carry, excellent arm speed and works on top of the ball very nicely, arm plays and actions project well moving forward, 93 mph best throw. Right-handed hitter, begins with a balanced and open stance with a high hand set and back elbow at the plate. Easy barrel speed with a long path through the zone, loose and athletic stroke overall. Generates easy back spin off of the barrel to pull side gap, low effort stroke with present juice and more to come down the road. Intriguing tools on both sides of the ball. Named to the South Dominican Republic Top Prospect List.

My guess us none of these kids start off for St. Lucie.

That means the younger ones will probably repeat DSL come late spring.

Happy Birthday to Ray Savage

 

Happy Birthday to a long time contributor to Mack's Mets: Ray Savage.

Read some of his work here:

Tom Brennan - Updated Retrospective on Mets 2013 Draft

  

I thought it might be fun to look back and see who got drafted by the Mets in rounds 1 thru 5, how they panned out, and which of them (and those from rounds beyond round 5) made it to the dance. 

I thought I’d start at 2012 and work forward towards 2022 from there, a year at a time.

Today?  The Mets' 2013 Draft 

1st Round - Dominic Smith - two years ago, I wrote that the "Jury is still out on whether Smith was a good first round pick or not.  If he reverts to 2020 form, absolutely.  If not, he reverts to Lucas Duda.  Fangraphs expects him to do modestly better in 2022 than he did in 2021; let's hope for Smith's sake, he does even better."

Well, he didn't get better.  738 at bats the past 2 seasons, just 63 RBIs.

A lot of at bats for a mediocre player with a career 1.1 WAR.

Conclusion: 

Busted first round pick.

2nd Round - Andrew Church - he'd struggle, show promise, struggle some more, show promise...but the righty hurler never made the majors.  When he went 7-4, 2.92 in A ball in 2016, I thought he was on his way.  Ultimately, though?  30-33, 4.93 in minors, no inning in majors.

Bad pick.

3rd Round - Ivan Wilson - the Mets opted to go with a stud athlete, hoping they could fix the strikeout hole in his swing.  They couldn't.  Athletic, but at draft time, I read he had contact issues.  I wonder if that deficiency was sufficiently taken into account by the Mets' drafting experts.  His last season in low A, he hit .197 with 80 Ks in 236 PAs.

Bad pick.

3rd Round - Casey Meisner - he got traded away by the Mets.  After showing some promise in the minors, especially his 13-5, 2.45 season in 2015, he had a rough 2019.  Hasn't played since in the minors.

Bad pick.

4th Round - LJ Mazzilli - What were they thinking?  Fine if you draft him, but maybe do so in the 7th to 10th round, not in the 4th round. Minors career ended in 2018, at .265. 

Bad pick for round 4.  If he was selected in rounds 8 thru 10, that would have been OK.

5th Round - Jared King - another failed pick - career .240 , less than a HR every 100 ABs in the minors.  Not sure what they expected from this 5th round pick - I'd have drafted power instead, or another arm.

Typically mediocre pick.

Miserable Mets selection effort, results-wise, on rounds 1 thru 5.

They improved in Rounds 10 thru 12, nabbing a trio of major leaguers.

Luis Guillorme, Tylor Bashlor, and a wise pick in round 12 with Jeff McNeil.

Luis has been a decent fill in, but is not at all a big run producer, despite being a glove wizard; he has put up a modest 2.9 career WAR. 

Bashlor failed, ultimately, at 0-6, 5.78. 

McNeil thankfully has won a batting title and compiled 19.2 WAR. 

Drafting Jeff McNeil almost made it a decent draft, but it was still a weak draft overall.

Next up?  2014.