MACK - MY Sunday Observations

 

Good morning.

Today, we shift from defense to pitcher injuries. Major League Baseball recently issued a 62-page study where they observed and documented pitcher injuries.

Pitchers that were targets were ones that had both higher velocity and overall talent while exerting maximum effort more often, both in-game and in non-game situations.

( https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43026688/mlb-study-identifies-factors-rise-pitching-injuries ) -

Over 200 experts were interviewed for this study. They included:      

Former professional pitchers, orthopedic surgeons, athletic trainers, club officials, biomechanists, player agents, amateur baseball stakeholders, and other experts in pitcher development.

You walk away from this study with the following results:      

1.     Chasing velocity is the No. 1 contributing factor to pitching injuries

2.     Tracking pitchers during the season was easy to do

3.     Doing the same during the off-season wasn’t

4.     Injuries spike during the spring, leading to speculation that not many pitchers come to camp properly prepared for the next season

5.     Another off-season concern is pitchers that overwork themselves, specifically working on new pitches.

6.     Regarding speed, the average increase in fastball velocity has completely paralleled the increased incidence of injury

7.     Concern for including horizontal and vertical break and spin rate makes one wonder how much new obsession there is to analytics.

8.     Major league pitchers didn’t seem to take these issues seriously and risked injuries using dangerous pitches because they thought that the reward of using those pitches totally outweighed any risks.

9.     This same kind of dangerous pitching happened in the minors.

10. The belief is pitching at a major league level throws all the concern for injuries in the trash bin.

11. Pitchers that know they won’t pitch many innings tend to use maximum effort, leading to future injuries.

12. Moreover, reduced usage could contribute to injuries.

13. Found a trend that minor league pitchers were not properly prepared for the rigors of a major league grind (workload,  innings limits, more rest between appearances).

14. Minor league pitchers are not being properly exposed to ‘back-to-back’ performances.

15. There seems to be a deemphasis of concern for cardiovascular and endurance training for pitchers.

16. Instead, the training is more in the form of "power-and strength-focused training".

17. There is too much heavy lifting and far less anaerobic training than in the past.

18. Pitcher injury history can be a predictor for future injury.

19. More players are becoming susceptible to another injury as they climb the amateur and professional ranks.

20. Pitchers out of the draft have been pitching year-round. Early round pitchers have been doing this for three years. The wear and tear on their pitching arms starts there, not in the majors.

21. It is inconclusive if the recent rules changes contribute less or more towards injuries.

22. There is no evidence that the new pitch count is a factor here; however, slowing the game down may contribute to more injuries since the pitcher has more time to focus to throwing at maximum effort pitch after pitch.

23. Early season or spring training injured list placements points to the pitch clock having little to do with injuries.

24. COVID may have had a lasting impact on pitchers.

25. Changes in training routines may have helped spike injuries over the past three seasons.

26. Regarding surgeries, there are “incorrect perceptions" of surgery may provide a false sense of security for players.

27. Pitchers might be willing to risk it all, thinking surgery can always create an opportunity to come back as strong, or even more.

28. This is especially true when it comes to Tommy John Surgery. Pitchers seem to be willing to sacrifice their elbows because of their belief that this procedure can fix it, especially quicker than in the past.

29. The addition of the new internal brace doesn’t seem to be helping.

30. Fact – 20% of pitchers that have TJS never make it back.

31. Emphasis on speed or addition of junk pitches, at an early age, contributes to youth injuries.

32. People get stronger… ligaments don’t.

33. Youth pitchers actually rip the bone off their elbow due to the growth plate being weaker than the ligament.

 

Jerry Blevins        @jerryblevins

This is the main reason why I never started doing the newest training for velocity. I knew I could pitch MLB level with my velocity and have minimal arm issues. I was worried that if I added velocity, my body couldn’t maintain a 162-game season.

 

Me?

This is a lot to take in. It’s great to see that this is being studied. Now, you are going to have to find some young pitcher and tell him he no longer can throw as hard as he can.

How many years have I been harping on this? Chasing velo and middle field defense.

Did you ever wonder if a pitcher can’t keep up his speed into the third time around the lineup, how in the hell is he supposed to keep it up after thirty years old?

Sure there are many exceptions, but the fact remains that there is a sizable percentage of young pitchers that do nothing more than attempt to hit the 100 mark, simply burn out in less than five years.

One of my favorite pitches was a fairly fast one that a pitcher would thrown towards the body of the batter, but at the last few moments it would come back into the edges of the zone. Totally unhittable. Always called a strike. Mike Pelfrey used to throw it early on in his career.

I have no idea how fact it went… maybe 90… but it could have been 60 and it still wouldn’t have been able to be hit.

Look at Roki Sasaki. He throws two pitches… fast and faster.

So far he has missed more than half of the 2023 season to an oblique injury (throwing only 91 innings), missed most of the 2024 season with a right arm injury (threw only 111 innings), and had his velocity drop from 98.9 to 96.9.

And yet the baseball world now considers him the second coming of Bob Gibson.

Sometimes I see very little of the game I grew up with.

 

Analytic Facts –

Luisangel Acuña.

Had a max exit velo of 109.8 in 2024 on 136 ML pitches.

Actually ticked up from his 109.6 in the minors in 2024

Below average O-Swing%

Tripled his AAA barrel% up to 9.1% with the Mets.

95th percentile sprint speed

Put up 3 full OAA at SS/2B in limited defensive time

 Jett Williams

Looked like one of the best batters in the minors, though it was a minimal 112 pitch role.

Had one of the lowest chase rates in all of MiLB (O-Swing%)

But also one of the lowest in-zone swing rates (Z-Swing%).

26.7% walk rate

.533 OBP

Nolan McLean

BA had him rated with a 130 stuff+ on his slider, the best in any NL arms.

Overall stuff+ mark of 113 ranks him 2^nd behind Philly RHP Moises Chace (119).

2024 slider at 85.1 with average 2,900-rpm and 14” glove-side movement.

 

Monday brought an early morning pre-Christmas eve present.

32-year old LHSP Sean Manaea signed a new contract with the Mets… 3-years, $75mil in total

We don’t have to spend any time discussing his stat line. We know this guy.

Me?

1.     Manaea immediately slots into the SP2 role, behind Kodai Senga

2.     Going forward, I show the following rotations:

a.     Starting five: Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes

b.     SP6-8 candidates: Tyler Megill, Griffin Canning, and Paul Blackburn (I would slot Canning into the SP6 and use him as a long man, move Megill also to the pen, and have Blackburn as my SP1 in AAA-Syracuse)

3.     Great clubhouse guy

4.     Best friends with Frankie Montas

5.     Nothing to dislike here

 

Lastly…

I didn’t expect to write about Pete Alonso this week, but I can’t stay away from what I am feeling about this right now.

I’m assuming the rumored offer of 3yr/$90mil is accurate. Let’s also assume Boras’s desire to secure a contract for his client that lasts into the next decade is also true. It’s hard for me to believe any team is going to pay someone this long that is basically a one-dimensional player. And… he didn’t even do that well last season.

The 2025 Mets will be the Lindor/Soto Mets, with Vientos rising. These are the star bats on this team.

Don’t get me wrong. I love what Alonso has done for this team and I’d love to have him back next season but hold steady with the three-year offer.

Right now, Alonso’s future with this team may be being determined with all these rumored additions of new third basemen. And let’s not forget the rumors of the Mets desire to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or the development of top 5 prospect Ryan Clifford.

There are long term options to solve the need for a first basemen into the 2030’s.

Tom Brennan: How to Determine a Possible Mets’ Vlad Jr Contract

COULD VLAD JR BE A PETE ALONSO UPGRADE?

LOOKING AHEAD…

Toronto recently made Vlad Jr an offer of a roughly $340 million extension over 10 years, which VJG considers far too low.

Guerrero is an interesting person to gauge, as most MLB hitters don’t have a former major leaguer as a father, and his father Vlad Sr is in point of fact not just any hitter, but a Hall of Famer.  

Vlad Sr was excellent throughout his career, but was not very good in his age 34 year. Then, he had a strong bounce back year with 115 RBIs at age 35, and subsequently played a final year at age 36, where he hit .290 but with just 13 HRs and 63 RBIs in 145 games.

So, if I were the Mets next off season, I’d see Vlad Jr as realistically finished, or in major decline, by the time he turns 37, so I would offer him 10 years, $500 million, and hope that is enough.  

That would cover his age 27-36 seasons.

Vlad Jr is a first baseman, while his daddy was a fine outfielder with a cannon for an arm, making him more valuable as a position player than his 1B son, which is not meant to denigrate his son, who is excellent. 

But Vlad Sr was also a greater hitter than Vlad Jr, hitting .318 in his career vs. his son’s .288 current career average.

Vlad Jr is not Juan Soto, either, who walks far more than VJ does, so it seems he should not be paid as much as Soto.

Toronto may well make him an offer he can’t refuse. But, if not….

Just some looking ahead thoughts. 

What do you think of the chances of Vlad Jr becoming a Met?

Me? I’d sure love to see him team up with Soto, Lindor, and Vientos.

Thunderous.

Reese Kaplan -- Jim Bowden Offers Up 9 Point List to Get Sasaki

Every now and then baseball influencers and executives actually do provide some key information that other teams need to hear and react accordingly.  In today’s case it is baseball professional executive Jim Bowden who has done a little bit of everything from GM role to broadcaster offering up some information about what it will take to sign Roki Sasaki to his first American contract.  The list contains nine points many of which seem to parallel some of the strengths of the New York Mets.  I’ll highlight what Bowden said and then offer up a quick analysis on how the Mets meet each of the criteria.

1. The major league team’s chances of winning in the short and long term — It would seem that the Mets having come within 2 games of making it to the World Series in 2024 would count on the short term side.  For long term the club is in the process of transitioning away from some veterans who are not performing at their best anymore to make room for additional younger players.
2. Strength of the farm system for promoting players and/or acquiring players via trades — The Mets farm system has vastly improved over where it has been in the past though the jury is still out on how well some of the higher rated prospects will fare when they reach the majors.  Still, it seems the team is on point here.
3. Financial resources to be competitive at all levels — A look at the Juan Soto contract ought to be a crystal clear answer here
4. The pitching room, including the veteran pitchers on their staffs. As well as the pitching coaches that he’d work with. Also, the plan they have in place for him to get better right away — Apparently word has filtered out that Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner made quite an impression on Sasaki and his agent. 
5. The analytics and technology the organization will make available to maximize his talents — The new pitching lab would seem to be an example of how the club is looking to help pitchers become even better than they already are.
6. Geography. Selling the home city, from its culture to restaurants to communities to the ballpark to the club’s spring training home — Here the New York Mets (and Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers) all have a relatively easy sell given how large their home environments are and the multitude of cultural resources available to newly crowned multi-millionaires.
7. The translators and support staff the team will provide to help him on and off the field — Given the scandal around Shoehei Ohtani’s translator gambling away his boss’ money and the impression current Met Kodai Senga has about his team, the Mets would seem to fare well here.
8. Getting a few of the team leaders to attend a recruiting meeting with the owner, general manager, manager, and pitching coaches — Now here it is interesting.  While Juan Soto might be the big fish in the pond, he is a newcomer.  What the Mets need to do here is to integrate current multi-year players like Francisco Lindor and Edwin Diaz to help reinforce what the front office and Carlos Mendoza do for the presentation to Sasaki’s representative team.  Bringing in David Wright in this regard would help as well.
9. Demonstrating how the organization functions as a family and how they’ll take care of his family — Just dredge up the recent headlines about how the Yankees treated Juan Soto’s family to reinforce how different the Mets are in this regard. 

While there is no guarantee that Roki Sasaki will come to the Mets, it would seem they are ahead of the Yankees in Bowden’s highlighted list and even have the one non-club scandal with a Dodger translator for their biggest star.  I don’t expect the Mets to land Sasaki but it’s nice to know there was no struggling with this list.

 

Tom Brennan: A Crazy First Base Idea?

Joey Meneses Photo: Joe Glorioso

I had a crazy idea…not the first time, you’re quick to think.

“There he goes again….ORDERLY?  ORDERLY? He’s off his meds.”

Anyway…My crazy thought?

Instead of signing Pete, focus on getting Vlad Jr next off season.

Not so crazy. 

But then…what to do for first base for 2025?

How about buying a killer pen and getting weirdly creative at first base?

Last I looked, for all his slugging prowess, Pete Alonso does not have a lot of Wins Above Replacement. Just 2.6 last year, playing almost every game.

So, why not splurge on a killer pen, to avoid blown games, and get weirdly creative at first base? How?

A Jesse Winker and Joey Meneses platoon.

Jesse has never played first base in the majors. Well, he has played 13 errorless games at first base in the minors. How hard could it be?

Jesse would be the lefty hitter in the platoon.

Lifetime against righties, he is .276/.379/.462. Would you take that at first base? I would.

Meneses? He is a natural first baseman. He seemed to have declined in 2024, but maybe it was just an off year. He was great in 2022 and very solid in 2023.

Lifetime vs. lefties in MLB, he is .277/.328/.434. And hitting well in winter ball.

So, if the duo adhered to those career norms, you’d roughly get .270/.350/.445 at first base. Nice.

Let’s be more conservative: .260/.340/.430.  Still good.

Last year, Pete was .240/.330/.460. And fanned an increasing amount, at 172 times. Just 2.6 WAR, too, playing almost every game. Might he fan 190 times in 2025?  I dunno.

If we could sign Pete on a one year deal at age 30, I would still do that in a heartbeat. But he won’t do one year.

Give him 4-5 years? Huge risk of buying his decline seasons. And no Vlad.

Benefit of not signing Pete is saving roughly $20 million in net salary (not to mention additional taxes) that could be saved or deployed elsewhere.

“No Pete” might help them keep team salary low enough to keep from dreadfully sliding 10 slots on their first round pick, too.

The risk, of course, for Winker/Meneses at first base is they significantly underperform the above .270/.350/.445 projections. Ouch.

But, if that happened in April and May, perhaps a rebooted Mauricio or McNeil could man 3rd base and Mark Vientos shift to 1B starting around Memorial Day.

And we get an extra lethal arm or two for the pen with the Pete $$. 

The pen that even with Edwin back was only 17th in MLB in 2024 with a 4.03 ERA. The most productive pen in baseball last year was Cleveland’s, and they had a 2.57 ERA while going 42-12, with an excellent 77% save rate.  How many more wins did their pen produce than the METS’ pen? My guess is: a lot more wins.

Thoughts on this approach?

Lastly, I thought for a second about JD Martinez, being the platoon hitter at first base against lefties. He is in fact, a much better hit her career wise as a righty hitting lefties. Probably would be able to re-sign him cheaply, too.But, remarkably, he has never played first base in his long career, so scratch that one.

Reese Kaplan -- Pickings Are Slim for Who is the 2025 DH

While most of the news these days is about the Mets somewhat reinforced starting rotation and the on-again/off-again prospect of returning Pete Alonso to Queens, there’s another area in which the club has made precious little progress.  Who is going to be the Designated Hitter?

Now bear in mind that ever since the National League implemented the DH role back in 2022, the Mets haven’t exactly had anyone deliver stand out results.  Kindly disregard failed options like Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf and other AAAA types.  In theory upgrading to Jesse Winker and proven DH J.D. Martinez was on paper a huge step forward, but their combined efforts still fell short of what had been hoped.

Going into 2025 neither Winker nor Martinez are on the Mets roster, there is no first baseman, no full time capable center fielder and no backup infielders.  For today we’ll gloss over the as yet to be constructed bullpen and simply focus on who might get that role for the club moving forward.

In House Options

Starling Marte is expensive trade bait and will cost the Mets probably half or more of his salary to get someone to accept him in trade.  If David Stearns can’t find another team interested in that kind of transaction, then he’s your default DH as he has been an All Star, has 20 HR power when healthy and 40+ stolen base capability.  With his declining outfield defense and his problems avoiding the IL the DH role might turn out to be suitable for a 36 year old veteran.

Mark Vientos put together a magical 2024 season offensively.  Defensively, well, his hitting made up for some of his shortcomings.  While most feel that the DH role should belong to senior ballplayers, if instead you allow Vientos to concentrate exclusively on improving his hitting to the next level, then the Mets might have someone in the mold of Edgar Martinez (though it would take a lot of stellar seasons to draw a parallel). 

Not to be forgotten, you also have Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio as well

Top of the Free Agent Class

Teoscar Hernandez was an expensive one-year option for the Dodgers in the outfield but they sure got their money’s worth.  In 2024 Hernandez hit .272 with 33 HRs, 99 RBIs and even a dozen stolen bases.  Though he’s always been an outfielder, he might relish taking on the bat-only role but understand he earned over $24 million last year.  He’s going to want multiple years at an increase in pay.

Anthony Santander has always been on the periphery of being a great player, but he chose his free agent walk year to demonstrate how good he can be.  In 2024 he hit just .235 but clubbed 44 HRs and drove in 102.  That was done for the relatively modest price of $11.7 million.  He’ll get a bump in pay for sure but not likely in the Hernandez range.  (And for those who weren’t noticing, those run production numbers would beat out a certain Polar Bear).  As a switch hitter you would only need one DH, not a platoon.

Retreads

J.D. Martinez did not have an awful year in 2024 but it was no match for what he did in 2023.  He finished the season with a .235 average, 16 HRs and 69 RBIs.  The numbers are not great but also not typical of what he can do.  His run production was delivered playing about 80% of the time.

Jesse Winker was a late season arrival who chose to put together some of his most memorable play during the drive towards the NLCS.  His offensive numbers were very similar to what Martinez provided with the addition of some stolen bases achieved for Washington before coming to New York.  If combined you could get 30 HRs and 90 RBIs in a platoon it would not be bad, but there’s no guarantee it would happen.

More Make-Do Free Agents

Jurickson Profar has been a top prospect for a long time but never really seemed to live up to the projected potential.  However, in 2024 for the Padres he hit .280 with 24 HRs, 85 RBIs and 10 stolen bases.  The switch hitter is going to play 2025 at age 32.  His numbers suggest a bit more power than Marte with less speed, but considering he played 2024 for a salary of just $1 million, he could be a low priced option if they find a taker for Marte.

Gleyber Torres is a man for whom the role of DH was created.  He can hit.  No one has ever questioned that but his defense is at best a work in progress.  So if you take him off the field and say just focus on your batting skills, he could be an interesting find.  In 2024 he hit 15 HRs and drove in 63 while hitting .257.  In his best ever year he knocked 38 HRs and drove in 90 while hitting .278.  A change of scenery deal for the currently 27 year old poor infielder could make for an interesting long term DH solution.  Besides, how nice would it be to have Torres perform alongside another ex-Yankee playing right field?

The other options for DH would have to come via trade, but that’s another topic for another day.

Paul Articulates - Christmas Wishes from Mack's Mets

It is the day after Christmas, the first full day of Hanukkah, and Boxing Day.  This is certainly a time to celebrate, and to generously bestow gifts upon our friends, family, and loved ones.  

So with that spirit in mind, the writers from Mack's Mets would like to thank all of you for reading our posts and providing such great feedback in the comments.

We love the Mets, we love our readers, and as we read in Savage Views on Christmas Eve, we love Steve Cohen for providing the gift of Soto to all the Mets fans that are wishing for the team to make it to the top.

But there are other wishes that need to be fulfilled, and this is the place to check our list.

For David Stearns, we wish for the wisdom to make good choices on all the upcoming player personnel decisions.  He still has several to go and they can shape the destiny of the team.

For Pete Alonso, we wish for the opportunity to set the all-time home run record for the Mets.

For Jeremy Hefner, we wish for a deep and talented bullpen and an injury free starting rotation.

For those returning from an injury filled season like Kodai Senga, Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams, and more we wish for a healthy run in 2025.

For Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty, we wish for a shorter, more compact swing that covers the plate and showers home runs upon the Mets faithful.

There are others on our list that are not members of the New York Mets, but have important wishes as well - our writers.

For Tom Brennan, we wish for shorter, closer fences in Citi Field.

For Reese Kaplan, we wish for a SNY feed on local Singapore TV.

For Ray of Savage Views, we wish for a full season of unquestionable managerial decisions that lead to many Mets victories.

For Remember1969, we wish for a time machine to easily jump back and research Mets history.

And for our beloved Mack and his family we wish for a healthy 2025!

Enjoy the holidays everyone!  It is only 58 days to the first spring training game!

Tom Brennan: Surprising Steamers Stuff; Roster Is Reforming; There Once Was a Guy

Picture of a Steamer…FULL STEAM AHEAD!

So the Mets, on December 18 or thereabouts, as I write this, agreed to sign pitcher Griffin Canning.  So I did what I like to do: 

See what Steamers (Fangraphs) projects him to do in 2025, after his high innings and high  5.16 ERA with the Angelinos in 2024.

Well, the “steam team” had him pegged at 129 MLB innings for 2025 and a much better, and not-so-bad, 4.22 ERA.

So I looked to compare him to leaky Paul Blackburn. 

Steamers projects Paul with a high 4.66 ERA, giving him an Adrian Houser feel, if you catch my drift.

Tylor Megill, you ask?  A 3.77 ERA projected for 2025. Nothing shabby about that. So get off the big fella’s back.

How does that compare to ace Kodai Senga?  

Darned close…at 3.79. That is “Ace Kodai” with a small a.

Dandy David Peterson (oft referred to as “my ace”)? A dandy 3.71 ERA.

Garrett Crochet, whom the Mets failed to trade for? 168 IP, 3.02 ERA. 

 - Just thought I would throw that in there.

Sean Manaea, who was up for grabs, and grabbed by the Metsies once more?

 - Steamers sees regression, to a 4.01 ERA. Ugh. May they be WRONG.

I project Manaea at a better 3.50.

Compare Manaea to newly acquired Clay Holmes, who Steamers had down for 2025 at 144 innings, 3.52 ERA. Yeah!

Jose Butto? 3.86 ERA, 62 innings, but no starts, as per Steamers for 2025.

Back to Griffin Canning. His career stats reveal a few things:

Far better starter (results-wise) at home. Lousy road W-L record.

He had 7 VERY BAD starts in 2024, in which he allowed 47 runs in 33 IP.

In all his other starts, 139 innings, much better at just 58 total runs.  

So, cut down the number of bad starts, to four, let’s say, and you have a much better pitcher.

He fanned a lot fewer batters per IP in 2024 than in 2023. Why? Dunno.

He allowed a high 31 HRs in 172 IP, so spacious Citi Field ought to help there.

So, I say:

Get Canning in Hefner’s gain-of-function pitch lab, and fix him real good.

So that he can Terminate more opposing sluggers.

ROSTER REFORMING…

Like the T2 Terminator machine in the Terminator 2 movie, the Mets roster had to melt down at the start of the post-season, and then re-form.

It is almost fully reformed. When it is, it will be extremely dangerous, and resilient.

Other teams will run screaming in fear.

Finally…

THERE ONCE WAS A GUY…

…who, in his ages 25-28 years for a non-Mets team hit .284, averaging 38 doubles, 7 triples, 25 HRs, 102 RBIs and 99 runs.

Very solid numbers.  Fairly close to Juan Soto numbers.

This person, this “guy”, Bobby Bonilla, then became a NY Met. 

Not terrible as a Met was the former Pirate, but disappointing to many.

Of course, Soto is a much better OBP guy than Bonilla was, has more HR power, and will start his Mets career 3 years younger than Bobby Bo started his Mets tenure.

Still, it reminds you that Soto will need to continue to perform at extremely high levels to justify that gargantuan contract. His past numbers don’t count, but his Mets numbers sure will.

So…

Help Soto out, Uncle Steve.

Move the fences in. 

We want to see “WOW” stats from him. 

And a few more cheap homers will help boost his stats to WOW status.

Lastly, a touching Christmas photo I saw on Facebook:

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offseason Roster Bullet List Number Four

Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster.  These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office.  

They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice.  Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt.  We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.

For those folks who celebrate at this time of the year, happy holidays!  It’s been a busy week with Sean Manaea coming back to the Mets and Griffin Canning getting a Mets paycheck as well, yet no substantial bullpen improvements, outfield resolution nor identification of a DH for 2025 has been done.  Let’s take a look at what’s  been in the media.

Major League Trade Possibilities

• Luis Castillo’s name keeps coming up again and again.  The Mariners are not as flush with money as some teams and the big salary due to Castillo would free up quite a bit of capital if he was moved elsewhere.  The Mets have had two stories attributed in the media regarding Castillo.  One has them centering a trade around prospect Drew Gilbert who was one of the haul of minor leaguers the Mets obtained during their own 2023 sell off of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.  He’s a stiff price to pay, but it’s clear you have to give to get.  In that deal the Mets might want the Mariners to pay down some of the nearly $100 million still due Castillo for the next four years.  The other rumor was perhaps even harder to swallow.  It had the Mets sending Mark Vientos to Seattle for Castillo and no kick in on the pitcher’s salary.
• A somewhat surprising story arose suggesting that the Milwaukee Brewers would be interested in acquiring Brett Baty as they have a huge infield hole to fill with Willy Adames now off to San Francisco.  Given Baty’s weak numbers in multiple tries in the major leagues it’s not likely going to net much of a return but the article cited the Brew Crew’s need to return again to the NL Central title without the budget to retain people they’ve recently lost in free agency or in trade. Baty is a wildcard who wouldn’t require much player personnel sacrifice and his former number one prospect ranking suggests he may actually be better than he has shown.
• Multiple sources have reported that the Mets would be willing to pay down the final year of Starling Marte’s contract to entice another club into taking a flyer on him staying healthy as he plays at age 36.  He is still capable of stealing bases but his outfield defense has migrated from well above average to nearly Todd Hundley quality out there.
• The Nolan Arenado to the Mets trade prospect simply won’t go away.  The players has turned down a prospective deal to the Astros and is expected to refuse another club interested in his services.  With the Pete Alonso situation still unresolved the Mets are looking at various ways to replace some of his offense while improving their defense.  The issue here again is pay rate and might require St. Louis to pay down some of his remaining pay to get a club seriously interested in the now Cardinal becoming a part of their own team for 2025. 

Available Free Agent Rumors

• Some folks have assigned numbers of 6 years for a total of $144 million to obtain ex Astro Alex Bregman.  That number is likely a lower AAV than what would be paid to Pete Alonso, but not by that much.  The improved defense would be welcome but it would also require seeing Mark Vientos attempting to master 1st base after struggling often at 3rd base. 
• Relief stud Tanner Scott is still out there for the top bidder.  Some have suggested the Mets build a lefty/righty 8th/9th inning duo between he and Edwin Diaz.  Aside from the abbreviated 2020 season during which Scott finished with a 1.31 ERA for the Orioles, he didn’t start to do it in back-to-back years until 2023 and 2024.  For the Marlins he went 9-5 over 74 games with a 2.31 ERA, collecting a dozen saves.  The following year split between the Marlins and Padres he totaled 9-6 with 22 saves and an era dropping to 1.75.  Not having posted the huge 40 save type seasons, he’s suited to a complementary role much like David Robertson.  His salary ending his last season was for $5.7 million and while he’ll look for a substantial increase it may not be in the 8 figure range that Robertson would command.
• It’s been suggested that Andrew Heaney could be a viable option for the Mets to pursue.  Given his career numbers you’d probably wonder why.  The big lefthander has a career losing record with a 4.46 ERA while showing decent control.  His ending salary in Texas was $13 million and while he might dip a bit in his now age 34 upcoming season, he doesn’t appear significantly better than other Mets current assets like Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill or Griffin Canning and would cost quite a bit more. 
• One pitcher David Stearns should know well is non-tendered Hoby Milner formerly of the Brewers.  The southpaw is turning 34 for the 2025 season but has shown himself to be a credible middle reliever.  For the past three seasons for the Brewers he pitched over 200 bullpen innings with a 3.44 ERA and a record of 10-5.  He limits the number of baserunners by giving up few hits and showing excellent control.  The Brewers felt he was not worth the money they would have to pay him for the upcoming year and let him go.  His ending salary was just a hair of $2 million.  He’s someone who should be on the Mets’ radar.
• The long time Texas Rangers reliever Jose Leclerc is on the open market.  Though he holds a losing record for his career, he also possesses a 3.27 career ERA.  Earning $6.25 million which was a minor $250,000 raise over his previous year, Leclerc likely felt he was due more.  Unfortunately he had a poor 2024 season with a 6-5 record, a 4.32 ERA and his usual poor control in the 4.0 Walks per 9 IP number.  On the plus side the Ks jumped to over 12 for the same 9 IP.  It’s possible to bring him on board probably for around the same pay rate if offered for 3 seasons.  However, you have to know what you’re getting with the 31 year old righthander.
• While many have already penciled in Starling Marte as a possible DH to take him out of the defensive game where he’s not doing especially well and to preserve his increasingly fragile health, this week more than one rumor surfaced about the Mets repeating the end of 2024 solution of a platoon shared between J.D. Martinez and Jesse Winker.  Together they would cost quite a bit for better than average production but how much better is still very much an open question.