MACK - IN FOCUS - Clay Holmes, Carlos Mendoza, ABS challenge system, Adrian de la Rosa, Farm System Rank, Nolan McLean, Dylan Ross, Tom Tango, Gil Hodges

 

Pitch Profiler                                     @pitchprofiler

Clay Holmes DEMANDS October baseball in Queens

Mets Mailbag

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6653579/2025/09/23/mets-mailbag-meltdown-pete-alonso/

Is Carlos Mendoza in trouble? Two years is not a lot of time for a new manager, but would this team have shown more fight with someone else? And who is responsible for the defensive lapses? — Alex W.

Tim: Two years has been plenty of time for Mets managers lately, no? Mickey Callaway, Luis Rojas and Buck Showalter all got two years; Carlos Beltrán got two months.

That said, it would be uncharacteristic of Stearns to move on from Mendoza this quickly. Certainly, some of the shine has come off Mendoza this season, as he’s been unable to generate the same kind of turnaround he pulled off last summer.

Has Mendoza made some in-game moves I disagree with? Of course. He’s a major-league manager in 2025; they all have. But he’s not the tactical liability that Callaway was (among other things). He hasn’t lost the clubhouse the way Rojas did in 2021. I know Stearns doesn’t view him as an uneasy philosophical fit, the way he did with Showalter after 2023.

When MLB adopts ABS challenge system next season who benefits and who loses?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6656787/2025/09/24/major-league-baseball-abs-system-reaction-impact/

No major league catcher is better at framing pitches and coaxing borderline strike calls than Patrick Bailey.

Bailey has turned pitch framing into its own art form. It’s the reason he’s viewed as a valuable major leaguer, even though the .222 hitter has been one of the least productive offensive players in the league this season.

So you might imagine what Bailey thinks of the automated ball-strike (ABS) challenge system that Major League Baseball’s competition committee approved on Tuesday for the 2026 season.

“I think it’s a bummer for catchers across the league,” Bailey said. “But I don’t think it’s going to take away the value of framing. You still have to get calls and keep strikes (as) strikes. At the end of the day, I still think it’s going to be really valuable to know the zone.”

For Bailey and other pitch-framing savants, the saving grace is that MLB isn’t going full robot. Rather than use high-speed cameras to automate all balls and strikes, which was among the systems tested at the Triple A level when ABS experimentation began in 2022, the league will implement the challenge-based system it used in selected spring training ballparks earlier this year.

Teams will receive two challenges per game. Following a pitch, a challenge can be implemented by the catcher, batter or pitcher involved in the play. They must immediately signify their intent by tapping the top of their head. Successful challenges will be replenished. For extra-inning games, teams that have exhausted their challenges will receive an extra one per inning.

Mets Prospect Group                     @bkfan09

Adrian de la Rosa (C) will sign officially with the Mets on January 15, 2026

 

Final MLB Farm System Rankings of 2025 After September Call-Ups

https://bleacherreport.com/embedded/articles/25252624-final-mlb-farm-system-rankings-2025-after-september-call-ups?_branch_match_id=1408222371212362866&utm_medium=share_sheet&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXTyrSSywo0MvJzMvWd3VxzXZzjIqKDE%2ByrytKTUstKsrMS49PKsovL04tsnXOKMrPTQUAiB0wJjkAAAA%3D

4. New York Mets (Preseason Rank: 14)

Top 10 Prospects

1. RHP Nolan McLean (Tier 1)

2. RHP Jonah Tong (Tier 2)

3. OF Carson Benge (Tier 2)

4. SS Jett Williams (Tier 2)

5. RHP Brandon Sproat (Tier 4)

6. OF A.J. Ewing (Tier 4)

7. 3B Jacob Reimer (Tier 4)

8. SS Elian Peña (Tier 4)

9. 1B Ryan Clifford (Tier 4)

10. RHP Jack Wenninger (Tier 5)

Right-hander Brandon Sproat was the headliner in the Mets system when the season started, with Jonah Tong (No. 8) and Nolan McLean (No. 9) slotted as Tier 4 prospects near the bottom of the top 10 list. Now that trio represents the future of the Mets starting staff.

Those three impact arms, alongside breakout performances from Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing and Jacob Reimer have vaulted this system into the top five.

 

Ernest Dove                       @ernestdove

Nolan McLean BB/9

College - 5.3/9

Minor leagues - 3.7/9

MLB - 3.0/9

Brooklyn Cyclones                           @BKCyclones

Dylan Ross began the 2025 season as a member of the Cyclones and has been called up to join the Mets today.

In just 140 days he will go from Brooklyn to the bigs.

Amazin.  Starts.  Here.

 Tangotiger                @tangotiger

Players who contribute the most on the defensive side, naturally mostly C, SS, CF...

 Jim Koenigsberger                          @Jimfrombaseball

"Gil Hodges was a gentleman. He commanded respect. He knew the game inside out. He was always three steps ahead of the other manager" Jerry Koosman

"Gil brought what we as young athletes, professional athletes, were missing, which was  the understanding of the definition of professionalism.

Gil Hodges taught me more about being a big leaguer than anyone else in my life"

Tom Seaver

"The later it got, the better a pitcher Nolan Ryan was going to be."

Gil Hodges

"The first thing my Dad did with the Mets, was teach them that it's not okay to lose"

Gil Hodges Jr.

Gil Hodges popularized the five-man rotation, which became a baseball industry standard. Hodges did so to protect and develop young pitchers such as Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Jerry Koosman, Tug McGraw, all of whom were between 21 and 25  years old when Hodges joined the Mets.

Those four pitchers threw a combined 85 seasons in the major leagues.

Hodges, Koosman, Seaver, Ryan

MACK - MY SUNDAY OBSERVATIONS - #3 DSL Prospect, Selling Alonso, Outside Pitches Called Strikes, Roberto Pena, Carlos Mendoza, Jett Williams, Pete Alonso, 30/30, Nolan McLean

 

Mets Prospect Group       @bkfan09         DSL TOP 10

3.            IF            Yunior Amparo

Yunior Amparo is an 18-year-old shortstop in the New York Mets’ minor league system, signed out of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, in August 2024.

Born on September 18, 2006, he stands at 6'0" and weighs 170 pounds, batting and throwing right-handed.

He’s played 2025 for the DSL Mets Orange and Blue, rookie affiliates in the Dominican Summer League (DSL).

Combined two teams:    173-PA, only 24-K, 4-HR, 17-RBI, 16-SB, .312/,428/.475/.903

In his first professional season, Amparo has shown promise as a righty-swinging shortstop with a compact, athletic frame and quick-twitch ability.

His defensive skills stand out, with plus arm strength and the ability to make plays to his left and right with ease.

At the plate, he’s demonstrated competitive at-bats and the ability to make loud contact, while his speed makes him a threat on the bases.

Amparo is considered a rising prospect, with some analysts suggesting he could outshine Elian Peña, the headliner of the Mets’ recent international class. His performance in the DSL has drawn attention, particularly for his defensive versatility and potential to develop into a pest at the top of a lineup. While he’s not yet ranked among the Mets’ top prospects, his early impression in 2025 has put him on the radar for future consideration. He’s far from the majors, likely years away, but his skill set suggests a bright future if he continues to develop.

Mets Mailbag

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6653579/2025/09/23/mets-mailbag-meltdown-pete-alonso/

Will the Mets’ missing the playoffs make moving on from Alonso an easier sell for Stearns to Steve Cohen and the fans citing the core needs to change? — Louis S.

Will: Maybe. But Alonso hasn’t been the problem. If I am Cohen and I am looking at the contracts for Alonso and Juan Soto — just individually — I don’t have much regret over the money for either of them; they did their jobs. (Could you imagine if someone rattled off Alonso’s and Soto’s numbers at the start of the season and then said the Mets would be a bubble team with a week left?) Now, viewing the deals within the context of this season? It might be a different story. The Mets are worse without Alonso. Whether to re-sign him or not boils down to length of contract.

Thomas Nestico                               @TJStats

Most Outside Pitches Called Strikes

 Francys Romero                               @francysromeroFR

Cuban RHP Roberto Peña (18) agreed with the New York Mets, per source.

It is still unknown whether the official signing will occur before December 15 or during the next international signing period.

Cuban U-15 National team member in 2022. FB: 93, CH: 83, SK: 90.

 

Carlos Mendoza's seat predicted to be hot in 2026 for Mets, but not now

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/new-york-mets/news/carlos-mendozas-seat-predicted-be-hot-2026-mets-not-now/ede6d578bfcd6a8719711dfb

Mets' Carlos Mendoza will be under fire in 2026

However, FanSided’s Tim Boyle doesn't believe that's the case, and instead, thinks that Mendoza's seat will just be hot next year.

“Just about everything about this Mets season has happened in reverse. Our feelings about Mendoza are on that same list. Fans will want someone to take the blame with the team currently out of playoff positioning. You can’t fire the players.

“For a team that has lacked an intangible fire to come from behind late or even follow the basic fundamentals of running, hitting, throwing, and catching lately, it’s the manager who’ll receive the brunt of the blame. Fair or not, it should make Mendoza feel like he’s sitting on a 1980s playground slide to begin next year,” he wrote.

This is New York at the end of the day, and with Steve Cohen looking to win games as much as anyone, especially with the money he's spent, it wouldn't be too surprising to see them make a move if that's what he believes is right.

 

Mets top prospect considered trade candidate amid historic collapse

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/new-york-mets/news/mets-prospect-considered-trade-candidate-historic-collapse/63bea4d1132ad3ae18b96942

Will the Mets trade a top prospect?Outside of t

hat, guys like Jett Williams are expected to be significant parts of the future in New York.

However, Eric Cole threw some cold water on that, naming him one of six players who could be traded during the offseason.

“Whether the Mets make the playoffs or not, it is clear that New York has to regroup a bit and make some changes to their roster that spending crazy amount of money can't somehow solve. Williams is a really intriguing prospect that can really run and has shown a surprising amount of power.

“However, his lack of size is somewhat problematic for his long-term projection and with some other young players in the talent pipeline, trading Williams could allow their front office to swing a big move that the free agent market doesn't yet possess viable alternatives to,” he wrote.

Williams is an intriguing prospect who had plenty of success during the 2025 campaign. He hit .261 in 572 PAs, including 17 home runs.

Moving him in a trade might not be the best idea, but considering where the Mets stand as an organization, it might be better to go out and get a proven veteran.

That's ultimately what David Stearns will have to consider this winter.

Updated 2025 MLB Free Agent Predictions on Top Stars Available

https://bleacherreport.com/embedded/articles/25253129-updated-2025-mlb-free-agent-predictions-top-stars-available?_branch_match_id=1408222371212362866&utm_medium=share_sheet&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXTyrSSywo0MvJzMvWz6%2FI9spMT3KNDE%2ByrytKTUstKsrMS49PKsovL04tsnXOKMrPTQUAdb3iNjkAAAA%3D

Pete Alonso, First Baseman, New York Mets

Alonso is currently signed to a two-year deal with the Mets that carries an opt-out clause, one the Polar Bear is almost certain to exercise this off-season. The 30-year-old first baseman is hitting .271 with 37 home runs, 123 RBI, and an OPS of .866, all while on a relatively low $27 million per-year deal.

He will opt out and look for a better contract, be that with the Mets or elsewhere. He is on the older side, and is a right hander at first, but he has come through in the biggest moments of the season for New York, including a walk-off home run that halted a disastrous eight-game skid late in the season.

Synonymous with the Mets since his arrival in 2019, it would feel rather wrong for Alonso to call anywhere but Queens home, even if he would be a fit in Boston or San Francisco and would almost certainly get big offers from either of those two clubs.

Alonso has already expressed his desire to stay in the Big Apple. Considering the two sides were able to come to an agreement last year, and the Mets have the money to finish any deal they want, the former Florida Gator staying put feels like the eventual outcome.

Prediction: Alonso stays in New York

Soto, Lindor join Strawberry and Johnson in Mets history books

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/new-york-mets/news/soto-lindor-join-strawberry-and-johnson-mets-history-books/f3ff737b3ba42a0ac00d92f7

The New York Mets remain in the thick of the National League wild-card race with three games left in the regular season. After an 8-2 victory last night against the Chicago Cubs, they hold a one-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds and a two-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the league’s final playoff spot.

Amid the race, Mets sluggers Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto made team history. With Lindor’s 30th home run of the season coming last night, both Soto and Lindor have reached 30-30 seasons. It marks only the second time in franchise history that teammates have recorded at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same year, following Darryl Strawberry and Howard Johnson in 1987.

That year, Strawberry finished with 39 home runs and 36 stolen bases while Johnson had 36 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Currently, Lindor sits at 30 home runs and 31 stolen bases, while Soto has 43 homers and 36 steals.

 

Mets Prospect Group                     @bkfan09

With the 2026 IFA List  Just Out .. Here is a list of Some Top Names For 2027, And The Teams They Are Connected To..

 

Thomas Nestico                               @TJStats

Daily tjStuff+ Leaders  -  2025-09-25  -  Min. 50 Pitches

1) Braxton Ashcraft - 107

2) Drew Rasmussen - 105

3) Nolan McLean – 105

Just Baseball - 2026 MLB Draft – Top 50 College Prospects - #36-40

 

2026 MLB Draft – Top 50 College Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb-draft/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/#entry-135444

36. Ethan Kleinschmit – LHP

HT/WT: 6’3/200 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Oregon State | Hometown: Mount Angel, OR | Projected Age: 21.2

Starting at Linn-Benton CC, Kleinschmit crossed the Willamette River and enrolled at Oregon State, becoming a key piece to their rotation and helping the Beavers return to Omaha in 2025.

He has the makings of a legitimate backend starter with improving command and great pitch shapes, even if he doesn’t throw particularly hard yet. It’s a strong frame with proportionate strength to his body, though he’s rather projectable with length to his limbs, and it’s an easy delivery down the mound with whippy arm speed.

Kleinschmit routinely sits in the low-90s, reaching back for 94-95 MPH in shorter bursts, but the pitch plays up thanks to the riding life it possesses. He averages close to twenty inches of carry on his fastball with over ten inches of run mixed in. It’s a pitch that has played well on the top rail, and any added velocity will help its value.

His upper-70s/low-80s sweeper has the chance to be a diabolical offering with more power. Kleinschmit averages over seventeen inches of sweeping life on the offering, adding/subtracting depth at times to play with shape. He can keep it down in the zone consistently and get hitters to swing over the top. His change-up was not utilized a ton last season, and he struggled to zone it at times, but there’s considerable vertical separation compared to the fastball, plus there’s significant tumbling action late in its life.

Adding a bit more polish to the profile should work magic for Kleinschmit, who looks to be something of a Michael McGreevy-type of arm. He’ll have plenty of suitors, and he should have a big role for the Beavers in 2026.

 

37. Mulivai Levu – 1B

HT/WT: 6’1/205 | Bat/Throw: L/R | School: UCLA | Hometown: Huntington Beach, CA | Projected Age: 21.11

A big part of UCLA’s young core, Levu has been a consistent force for the Bruins across his two years on campus. He’s hit at every stop in college, which includes trips to Omaha, the Northwoods, and USA Collegiate Trials.

He’s a bulky prospect with good size and strength, though it’s his below-average speed and arm strength that limit him to first base. With that said, the bat is a solid one.

Levu stays compact in his operation, maintaining an even stance and a high handset, utilizing the entire field to his advantage. It’s an adjustable swing with excellent bat-to-ball skills and tight turns to the baseball, especially on the inner half, though he does hit the ball on the ground more than you’d like. He can be beaten by upper-end velocity, as well. Levu’s approach is very aggressive, swinging nearly 50% of the time and having a chase rate near 30%, but it hasn’t hampered him much.

His power is squarely average overall, though his contact quality is best to his pull-side. He’ll let the ball travel and lace it to the opposite field, but it plays best to right field when he can turn and burn on pitches. He’ll need to lift the ball more and show more patience, but it’s hard to find a more consistent bat on the West Coast.

While he is landlocked at first base, Levu does show good lateral movement and can move around the bag well. He’ll be a serviceable defender at the position. Expect Levu to play a significant role once again for the Bruins in 2026.

 

38. Jack Natili – C

HT/WT: 6’3/198 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Cincinnati | Hometown: Venetia, PA | Projected Age: 21.4

Natili spent his first year in college baseball at Rutgers, where he put together a solid freshman campaign for the Scarlet Knights. However, he hopped into the portal and ventured to Cincinnati, where he broke out and played a big role for the Bearcats in 2025, leading them back to a tournament appearance.

He’s a tall, physical athlete behind the plate with a power-oriented game on the field. Natili stands slightly crouched from the right side of the dish, utilizing an open front leg and a subtle leg kick to trigger the operation.

His ability to generate a tight coil in his core and separate the hips and shoulders is impressive. It’s loud bat speed with quick hands, punishing the baseball consistently with a heavy barrel and above-average power. This does come with a good amount of swing-and-miss, however. His swing can get long, and he’ll struggle to adjust to velocity and spin alike, but he stays within the zone at a respectable clip and doesn’t chase a ton.

He’ll need to work on the overall contact skills moving forward, especially once he reaches the upper levels of the minor leagues with more advanced stuff.

Behind the plate, Natili has a plus arm, and he likes to show it off regularly, though he’ll need some more polish in other facets of his game. His lateral mobility isn’t the greatest, which affects his ability to block wild pitches, though he can get out of the crouch well. His receiving is a work in progress, as well. With that said, his arm strength should keep him behind the dish, especially if the actions improve.

 

39. Jason DeCaro – RHP

HT/WT: 6’5/230 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: North Carolina | Hometown: North Port, NY | Projected Age: 20.2

Once a member of the 2024 draft class, DeCaro reclassified into the 2023 class, but ultimately found himself in Chapel Hill. Since getting to campus, he’s been a consistent force in their rotation, making 34 starts for the Tar Heels to the tune of a 3.80 ERA.

DeCaro has physicality to his frame at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, though there’s some projection remaining, and he’s a solid mover down the mound. There’s a lot to like with his arsenal, though there are some rough edges to iron out. It’s an arsenal that is deep, but it does lack power.

He has hit 97 MPH with the heater, although he’ll typically pitch it around 91-94 MPH in most outings, with significant running life out of his hand. It’s a two-seam shape that does possess a flat approach angle on the top rail, but his extension is subpar, and he’ll pull the heater at times. He may wind up needing to separate the heater into two distinct shapes to help his effectiveness at the next level.

He spins the ball extremely well with his breakers, consistently getting to 3,000 RPMs, though they both lack sufficient power. His low-80s slider is more of a pure sweeper, but the mid-70s curveball flashes more potential with good bite and two-plane tilt. His best secondary is his low-80s change-up that features significant tumble, throwing it with conviction and tunneling well off the heater.

His command can waver at times, mainly because of a bucket step in his delivery that caused him to fall out of line. He’ll need to clean that up, as well as add more power to his arsenal to fulfill his potential. If there’s anything that helps his cause, he projects to be 20.2 years old on draft day, which is nearly unheard of.

It’s a high-floor profile presently, but there’s untapped upside here.

 

40. Trey Beard – LHP

HT/WT: 6’2/185 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Florida State | Hometown: Dunedin, FL | Projected Age: 21.9

Funky lefties, you just can’t quit on them. That’s a saying that describes Beard perfectly. It’s funky, it’s weird, and it has gotten significant results in college, especially in 2025. Beard struck out 118 batters in 86 innings for the Owls before traveling up to Tallahassee to join Florida State for his draft-eligible season.

Beard employs a very deceptive operation on the bump, contorting his body to generate the towering release height. His release hovers just south of seven feet, which is impressive considering his 6-foot-2 stature on the bump.

Given how high his release is, he generates a ton of carry on his fastball, averaging north of twenty inches. He doesn’t throw hard, maintaining 88-92 MPH with the ability to reach 94 MPH, but batters chase it above the zone routinely. It’s unique, albeit Beard’s short stride and steep angle can hamper the value.

His mid-70s change-up is truly diabolical, an easy plus offering with significant velocity separation. Beard is confident in floating it into the zone consistently, and hitters struggle to pick it up. His low-80s slider takes advantage of the vertical plane, too. It’s more of a bullet slider, but the angle allows it to play up. The same happens with his mid-70s curveball, which has bigger depth.

He can lose his release at times, causing inconsistent command, which will be something to watch for at Florida State.

It’s truly one of the most unique profiles in the country, and it’s a high-probability starting profile, too.

Tom Brennan - Say What You Want ‘Bout Them, But…

 

TYLOR MEGILL WAS ONE OF MANY WHO CRUMBLED

Anyone can point out flaws in the seasons of Messrs. Soto, Lindor, Alonso, Diaz, and Nimmo if they looked hard enough.

“So-and-so hit mostly solo HRs, so-and-so hit poorly with 2 outs and RISP. That guy can’t hold friggin’ runners on.”

“Yada Yada, Blah Blah, Blah.”

Here is what I KNOW:

Those five boys come to PLAY!

While so many other important players got hurt for major stretches, or hit or pitched like spit, these guys kept the season from crumbling in a heap. And almost never missed a single game.  A combined 11 games in total.

In other words, 157 games thru Tuesday, and those 4 averaged 154 games played.

Beyond those four, a MIGHTY MESSED UP METS MASH UNIT.

Manaea misses half a season.  Montas misses half a season, and then falls apart.  Minter blows up. Alvarez gets hurt and misses time. Senga crumbles. Canning misses the last 60% of the season, and declares that his least-favorite Greek god is Achilles.  Megill’s arm blows up, making it 5 crumbled starters.  Siri missed almost the entire season, and I wish he missed the whole thing.  

Garrett has great heart, but has off-and-on elbow issues.  Tyler Zuber gave the Mets two non-quality innings - a true innings eater.  Mauricio wasn’t physically ready for months.  David Peterson went from Ace to Joker overnight.

Nicky Madrigal? He didn’t even make it to March.

I’m sure I left some other part-timers out.  You know who you are.

Many have hit or pitched in a quite mediocre fashion, and failed to earn a lot of playing time.  So…

Soto, Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo - their cost per game is a lot.  

They get paid huge amounts. So huge.

Their cost per game played, though, is not excessive. Because they are the indestructible core.

And Diaz has been great.  (Hey.  They were gonna steal second anyway).

27th, AND TRYING HARDER

Going into Friday’s game, the Mets were 27th in team ERA at 5.13. Despite the addition of ERA-excellent McLean.

August? 6th worst at 4.97  ERA.

EXPLAINS EVERYTHING.

Except this: the teams with the 4 worst ERAs in September, one of which is the Mets, are a combined 28-66.  

No playoffs? That will be why.

THEY HAD THE “BABY REVEAL” LAST NIGHT

Women have Baby Reveal parties. Is it going to be a boy or a girl?  

If boys win, and girls don’t in my analogy, well, I guess we Mets fans are having a bouncing baby girl!

A 6-2 loss to a superior Marlins team, remarkably with six rookies in their line up.

The Mets’ team ERA over the past two months exceeds 5.00.  

STOP JUMPING TO CONCLUSIONS!

“Man, do you see how Drew Gilbert is suddenly hitting? 3 HRs.”

Stop jumping to conclusions!  

Thru Thursday, he is 5 for his last 45, with 2 RBIs.

“Dominic Smith hitting in the mid .280s?  Get him back!” 

Stop jumping to conclusions! 

The speedy Smith went on the IL a few weeks ago with a hamstring pull.

“Ryan Helsley?  Cut him!” 

Stop jumping to conclusions! 

Through Thursday, last 5 outings, 6 IP, SCORELESS.

One more….Baty before August was meh! 

Stop jumping to conclusions! 

August and September, 41 for 132 (.311), with 7 HRs. Dang!

OK, Aone more…Cedric has NOT been the Entertainer…but Al Weis wasn’t one either - until he was.  So…Stop jumping to conclusions! 

If the Mets make the playoffs, how players do from Day 1 until the playoffs end is what ultimately counts. 

So, stop jumping to conclusions. You may only have to wait until the season ends Sunday, though, to solidify your conclusions.

MINOR LEAGUE UPDATE:

Everyone’s gone home.

Some, I understand, have off-season blue collar jobs - crypto mining.

Playing at Citi Field?  You are playing on Rare Earth.

Reese Kaplan -- Will it End Badly or End Well?

Here we are during the final three games of the 2025 regular season for the Mets.  Going into the Marlins series the Mets held a razor thin one game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final wildcard berth.  While no one can predict what will happen by the time the Sunday game ends, the fact is that the control over the October postseason dream belongs entirely to the Mets. 

So let’s take a brief look at two different scenarios.  What happens if the Mets fold over the weekend while the Reds prosper?  How would they react to the season ending on a down note?

Then there is the other way to ascertain as well.  The Mets have had a wild season with two very prolonged months of slumps and yet still have the ability to eliminate the competition from entering the drive to a possible World Series appearance.  What happens if they hang on and make it to October baseball?

The Bad

You can easily recite things that have gone wrong for the Mets this season between health, poor performance and the wildly disappearing pitching staff.  The offense has been up and down, at times looking solid with four leading batters truly scalding the ball while other times it appears a two run deficit is entirely insurmountable.

On the health side, there’s not a whole lot to blame here.  Injuries happen and it seems that this franchise has gotten more than its fair share.  They’ve lost multiple starting pitchers and various position players for more of the season than they have played.  Yes, you can point to the coaching and development staff for potentially insufficient preparation for the players or you can write it off to bad luck. 

For the offense, the Mets have a lot of hard decisions to make if they win or lose this weekend.  They have Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos competing for two positions (three if you count DH as an option).  Behind them you have Jett Williams not far from making his major league debut.

The other infield position to evaluate at length is first base.  Pete Alonso has been highly productive and remarkably healthy during his Mets career.  He’s going to want a long term deal at a high AAV.  The Mets need to decide if they missed out on the postseason whether it makes sense to invest $30+ million per year for the next 4+ years in Alonso or if they reinvest those funds by spreading them around to address multiple other needs.

The outfield isn’t a much clearer situation.  Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto are the corner guys both in the midst of long term contracts.  There is no center fielder who deserves to start 150+ games in 2026 unless Carson Benge is somehow between an abbreviated AAA trial and winter ball can rally for an early arrival.  Starling Marte is a free agent at year’s end.  Jose Siri is already gone.  Cedric Mullins is a free agent.  Tyrone Taylor should be back but as a 4th outfielder, not as a starter. 

Then there is the pitching.  Even the seemingly invincible rookie Nolan McLean looked entirely human when he gave up five runs to the Cubs as the Mets closed out that series taking 2 out of 3.  Of course, he also whiffed 11 in 5+ innings of work, so it was not exactly a horrific outing. 

The rest of the staff is, well, a bit of a gamble.  You’ve seen good days from Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and David Peterson in the past.  In the present, however, they have been vulnerable.  Throw in the other two rookies — Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat — and you have to scratch your head wondering how far the starting staff could take the Mets in their quest to close out the season.

The Good

If the Mets indeed make it to the playoffs there will be both celebrations and a plethora of huge sighs of relief when it appeared for much of June and August that the team wasn’t even going to play .500 ball.  How far they go is unpredictable because you don’t know which Mets team is going to take the field.

Going into 2026 with an October game appearance the Mets will continue to work through the who will stay and who will go debates.  Mark Vientos’ defense has him pegged as a DH or perhaps even a first baseman if the team loses out on Pete Alonso.  Brett Baty finished stronger than he started though his bottom of the order run production still runs behind that of Vientos.  The other infielders have been placeholders at best (including Jeff McNeil). 

The outfield is even worse and unless you’re banking on Carson Benge then the club is going to have to make trades or find free agents available to stand between Nimmo and Soto.  Right now there are no easy answers but it may be that some of the prospects may turn into trade bait to find a center fielder and a second backup outfielder.

As DH the Mets have tried and failed with players as poor as Daniel Vogelbach and as previously successful as J.D. Martinez yet no one really stuck at the slot.  Going forward will it be Vientos or do they need to shop around?

The pitching is the real Achilles heel for the club.  In the rotation you’re already without Tylor Megill and Frankie Montas for 2026.  The speed bumps experienced by Tong and Sproat suggest they may or may not be ready for prime time.  Christian Scott in in rehab throwing in September and should be ready when Opening Day arrives.  He pitched to a 3.19 minor league ERA before his major league efforts were nearly 1.5 runs worse. 

Then there are the returning veterans.  David Peterson has been on an express downhill slide for the second half of the year after being dominant in 2024.  The club really has to think long and hard about how much faith they have in him.

Clay Holmes started off very well but he too has scuffled a bit at year’s end which might be nothing more than arm fatigue.  They do have him back for next year but they will again need to evaluate whether he’s more valuable as a starter or a reliever.

Speaking of the bullpen, how deep are Steve Cohen’s pockets to retain opt-out eligible Edwin Diaz?  If he does leave doe it make Clay Holmes the closer by default?  No one else in the current pen who is not a free agent seems likely.  Some latecomers such as Dylan Ross could be interesting but have not yet been tested at the big league level.

Reese Kaplan -- What Happens When the POBO Chooses Badly?

Pitch Profiler                     @pitchprofiler

Nolan McLean with a tough start, but leaves with the Mets up and their playoff hopes still alive

Given the many less than stellar people the Mets have had in their front office the acquisition of David Stearns felt like they had made a major step forward.  During his first year as the President of Baseball Operations the Mets finished the regular season with a winning record of 81-76.  Five games over .500 is not going to win a pennant but it was parallel to the team he inherited after the 2023 season that also ended with an identical 81-76 record.  Thus far they are 81 -76 again with 4 games left to play.  Are we seeing a pattern?

During this offseason the Mets were very much in the headlines for their public solicitation of Juan Soto.  We all saw the many stories, the competitors and despite the unbelievable number it took to land the young superstar everyone celebrated that the Mets were turning themselves into a real team with a very strong core of players.

Unfortunately, that transaction may stand out as Stearns’ sole highlight for the year.  Really?  With a wildcard playoff spot within grasp you’d think his many personnel moves would have made a major positive impact.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Let’s take a look.

• Paul Blackburn was a somewhat strange transaction when it took place in 2024 and he did nothing to justify it since coming to New York.  Granted, he has had health issues, but his pitching was bad enough that he earned a DFA.
• Ryan Helsley was a top-of-the-crop closer for the St. Louis Cardinals.  His acquisition on paper seemed like a smart move but until his last 4-5 appearances he has been not mediocre but awful.  Given that he’s a rental and will become a free agent at year’s end, this move has been a spectacular failure.
• Clay Holmes was brought in to transition from quality reliever to solid starter.  For the most part it seemed like a good move but as the year wore on perhaps it was the extra innings on his arm.  Lately he’s been adequate at best as his ERA rose from below 3.00 during the early part of the year to 3.69 as they play their final week of the regular season.  A 70 inning pitcher has thus far thrown 158 with more to follow.  The wear and tear may be at play here but considering how bad the rest of the starting pitching has been he’s already a decent acquisition.
• Sean Manaea started the year injured and when he returned he went quickly from solid starter to “Oh no!”  He was banished to the pen recently but it’s been announced he and Clay Holmes are reversing their combined efforts for one of the upcoming games.  If he can emulate the 2024 version then the signing was a good one.  If not then it wasn’t.
• A.J. Minter pitched like the outstanding reliever he had always been before an injury ended his season prematurely.  This was a solid deal but didn’t work out as had been hoped. 
• Frankie Montas was the ultimate “Huh?” kind of reaction when his signing was announced.  He has not been a solid pitcher throughout his career.  Yet for some reason Stearns felt it was wise to offer up $34 million for two years and he pitched even worse than many anticipated.  Now he’s gone for 2026 due to surgery.
• Cedric Mullins was a one-time surprising home run hitter with great base running ability and stellar defense in center field.  With both Jose Siri and Tyrone Taylor ailing it seemed that finding a center fielder was a smart move but not necessarily this one.  Mullins was a cheap solution but also coming off consecutive years batting just .233 and .234.  With the Mets he’s at just .218.  He will be gone as a free agent at year’s end.
• Tyler Rogers had a few brief hiccups upon his arrival to the Mets but he righted his ship and is pitching to a 2.16 ERA for the Mets which is actually worse than the 1.80 he was throwing for the Giants.  This trade was indeed a good one. 
• Jose Siri was just DFA’d by Stearns after missing most of the year healing from a broken tibia.  Like Mullins, he was a guy who struggled to be over the Mendoza line and could only be praised for his defense, speed and occasional home run power.
• Gregory Soto was another puzzling acquisition in July.  He hasn’t been a good pitcher since making the All Star team for the second time in 2022.  In the three years since then he’s been backsliding badly.  With the Mets he’s pitching to a 4.15 ERA and sporting a WHIP of nearly 1.6 runners per inning pitched.  Thankfully he is also a free agent at year’s end.
• Jesse Winker returning was a mixed reaction by fans.  Yes, his passion for the game was a good thing but his health kept him off the field more than he was on it.  For the year he has a single home run in 70 ABs and a .229 batting average.  He too is a free agent at year’s end.
• Then there are the myriad of AAAA players for the field and for the mound that have not added up to anything positive.

So if you go through this list you get big applause for Juan Soto, modest praise for Tyler Rogers and Clay Holmes, then a whole lot of nothing from the others.  While I respect the ability David Stearns has, whether or not he’s constructing the roster properly is still very much a question that’s up in the air.

MACK - MY FRIDAY OBSERVATIONS - Francisco Alvarez, What If?, Win Probability, Jonah Tong

 

Francisco Alvarez proves he can be that guy

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6657014/2025/09/24/francisco-alvarez-mets-cubs-home-run/

Throughout a season that featured more ups and downs than the world’s best roller coaster, the Mets could’ve used someone with more of an edge. An emotional player. Someone who speaks out. Someone who turns things up. How about the guy with “the best” tattooed across his neck? The guy playing with a broken pinky and bum thumb? The guy who stops and stares after hitting a critical home run when every game means everything for the Mets’ playoff hopes.

A couple of Alvarez’s teammates used the same word when describing the moment: electric.

“That’s who he is,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We feed off that. Guys love it. As a team, we need that. We need that spark. We need that energy. For him to do it at that moment, we all felt it in the dugout. He’s special.”

 

Each MLB Team's Biggest 'What-if?' of 2025 Season

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25251158-each-mlb-teams-biggest-what-if-2025-season

New York Mets: What if their veteran starters performed better down the stretch?

If the Mets ultimately miss the postseason, many things will be second-guessed in New York. The biggest question will be whether the president of baseball operations, David Stearns, devoted enough resources to veteran starting pitching.

Sean Manaea was one of baseball's best pitchers in the second half of the 2024 season, ultimately earning him a three-year, $75 million deal in free agency. But Manaea didn't make his 2025 season debut until July, and now has a 5.40 ERA across 55 innings pitched.

David Peterson was an All-Star for the Mets in 2025, but has a 5.71 ERA since appearing in the Midsummer Classic.

Clay Holmes has a 4.70 ERA in the second half, as opposed to a 3.31 ERA in 19 first-half starts. That was predictable considering this is his first year as a starter, so he's likely gassed by this point in the season.

Kodai Senga accepted an option to Triple-A after posting a 6.56 ERA in eight post-All-Star Break starts. He's got a 5.40 ERA over his first three starts for Triple-A Syracuse.

It's great to have exciting young starters with Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, but this time of the year, you need multiple veteran stoppers. Carlos Mendoza hasn't been able to lean on those types of arms.

Mets Analytics                  @MetsAnalytics

Most win probability added in a season by a reliever, Mets history:

445% Armando Benitez 2002

403% Randy Myers 1988

360% Edwin Díaz 2022

358% Edwin Díaz 2025

350% Jeurys Familia 2015

342% Billy Wagner 2006

338% Jesse Orosco 1983

330% Armando Benitez 2001

310% Armando Benitez 2000

306% Roger McDowell 1985

304% Seth Lugo 2019

 

Which of these aces will be MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year?

https://www.mlb.com/news/milb-pitching-prospect-of-the-year-award-finalists-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets (No. 4/MLB No. 43)

Age: 22

Double-A: 8-5 W-L, 1.59 ERA, 20 G, 102 IP, 50 H, 2 HR, 44 BB, 162 K, .143 AVG, 0.92 WHIP

Triple-A: 2-0 W-L, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 11 2/3 IP, 8 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 17 K, .190 AVG, 0.94 WHIP

Total: 10-5 W-L, 1.43 ERA, 22 G, 113 2/3 IP, 58 H, 2 HR, 47 BB, 179 K, .148 AVG, 0.92 WHIP

Tong moved from Canada to Georgia for his high school senior season in 2022 before turning pro and didn't do much in his pro debut the following year. He placed fifth in the Minor Leagues with a 34.2 percent strikeout rate in 2024, then became the first pitcher to lead the Minors in ERA and strikeouts in the same season since they restructured in 1963 into the system we know today. He also topped the Minors in average-against, strikeout rate (40.5 percent) and strikeout minus walk rate (29.9 percent).

Called up to the Mets in late August, Tong operates from an extremely deceptive delivery with an over-the-top arm slot and quality extension, leading to persistent Tim Lincecum comparisons. His mid-90s fastball has tremendous carry and pairs well with his down-breaking upper-70s curveball, while his fading mid-80s Vulcan changeup has become a weapon this season.

John From Albany: 10 Years Ago - Mets Clinch NL East, 9/26/2015

NY Post Back Page 9/26/2015

2015, the last year the Mets made the World Series.  This daily post will detail the game by game journey to the Fall Classic.

Year: 2015; Game #155; Saturday;  Sep 26, NYM 10 @ CIN; 2; boxscore;   WP: Harvey; LP: Lamb; Time: 02:57; DAY; Attendance: 32,293; Record: 88-67; Standings: 1; Games up/behind: up 8.5; W; 

Curtis Granderson RF: 2 for 4; HR; 2 runs; 1 RBI; 1 walk; 2 Ks; David Wright 3B: 1 for 3; HR; 2 runs; 3 RBIs; 2 walks; 1 K; Yoenis Céspedes CF-LF: 1 for 5; GDP; 1 K; Daniel Murphy 2B: 2 for 4; 2B; 2 runs; 1 walk; Travis d'Arnaud C: 1 for 4; 1 run; 1 walk; Lucas Duda 1B: 1 for 3; HR,GDP; 2 runs; 4 RBIs; 2 walks; Michael Cuddyer LF: 1 for 4; 2B; 2 RBIs; 1 K; Juan Lagares CF: 0 for 0; Wilmer Flores SS: 0 for 4; 1 K; Rubén Tejada SS: 0 for 0; Matt Harvey P: 0 for 3; 2 Ks; Kelly Johnson PH: 1 for 1; 1 run; Matt Harvey, W (13-7): 6.2 innings; 2 runs; 2 ERs; 9 hits; 6 Ks; Addison Reed: 0.1 inning; no runs; 1 hit; Tyler Clippard: 1 inning; no runs; 1 hit; 1 walk; 1 K; Jeurys Familia: 1 inning; no runs; 2 hits; 1 K; 

NY Post: The wait is over: The Mets are the NL East champions. "The idea of a first-place finish, which seemed like such a pipe dream for the Mets when the season began, became a reality at 7:08 p.m. on Saturday when Jeurys Familia struck out Jay Bruce to start the on-field celebration...The Mets beat the Reds 10-2 at Great American Ball Park to win the NL East title and end a nine-year playoff drought. Only fittingly, David Wright — the only holdover from the 2006 playoff team — sealed it with a three-run homer in the ninth."

NY Post: Mets secure 1st postseason berth since 2006 behind Lucas Duda's grand slam. "Duda sparked a warm-up celebration with his first career slam in the first inning off left-hander John Lamb (1-4). Duda had a pair of three-run homers on Friday night. The slam gave him three homers in five at-bats with 10 RBIs. Curtis Granderson added a solo shot, and Wright put it away in the ninth with his fourth homer since returning from the back injury."

Mike Vaccaro NY Post: Is this real? Mets’ stunning fairy tale nearly unbelievable. "Let’s face it: In real life, the season probably ends on the soggy afternoon of July 30, when they lost a soul-crushing game to the Padres, when they fell three games behind the Nats, when they fell to 52-50 and had one foot on the edge of the season and the other dangling into the abyss...Cespedes showed up the next day, he started spraying line drives all across the National League, and the Mets started to play with the fury and the fervor of a team unwilling to let the season scamper away from them. They swept the Nats. The would go 36-17 from that day to this one, would pick up 11 ½ games on DC."

Anthony DiComo MLB.com: "It's a long time coming," Wright said. He paused as teammate Bartolo Colon grabbed the back of his T-shirt, poured a few ounces of beer down his back, and snapped the shirt back into place. "We deserve this. The fans deserve it. The city of New York deserves it. I'm glad we could deliver for them."

NL East Standings 9/26/2015

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
NYM	88	67	.568	--	665	593	.552
WSN	79	75	.513	8.5	684	616	.548
MIA	68	87	.439	20.0	583	644	.455
ATL	62	93	.400	26.0	552	747	.365
PHI	58	97	.374	30.0	585	782	.370

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/26/2015.