Tom Brennan: Mets All Time HBP Leaders

Sometimes, as Kevin Pillar once found out, HBPs can be downright dangerous

Saw the chart below on Baseball Reference.  

It just, I dunno, it just kinda hit me.  How so?

Current roster Mets are ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 8th in Mets career HBPs.  What is interesting is none of those 4 is in the top 10 in Mets plate appearances.  David Wright was up 6,872 times as a Met, #1 in PAs, yet was plunked just 45 times, or once every 153 times up.  

Alonso, on the other hand, has been plunked 85 times in 3,607 PAs (1 every 42 times up).  Nimmo 80 HBPs in 3713 PAs, or once every 46 PAs.

This is a disruptive injury risk to the team. My offhand guess is that once in every 25 HBPs, a guy ends up on the IL. 

Pitchers need to see their hitters being targeted and retaliate, to protect.  

If a cop is giving out tickets visibly, many drivers slow down. 

If our pitchers nail opposing hitters in retaliation, the Mets' hitters' HBP rate should drop, too.

Of course, there are a few players who want to be HBP to drive up their OBP, such as Ron Hunt after he left the Mets, and Mark Canha.  A risky strategy, but one that can work for a player come contract time, if he manages to avoid long injuries from HBP.  If Mark Canha got hit at only a league average rate, his OBP would drop and likely his salary would, too. 

Anyway, here's the chart:

Hit By Pitch
1.	Pete Alonso	85
2.	Brandon Nimmo	80
3.	Jeff McNeil	77
4.	Michael Conforto	50
5.	Lucas Duda	48
6.	David Wright	45
7.	Ron Hunt	41
8.	Cleon Jones	39
	Francisco Lindor	39
10.	Mark Canha	37
	Cliff Floyd	37

Reese Kaplan -- Just Like Chris Bassitt, Luis We Hardly Knew You

With all of the over-the-top harangues regarding the pros and cons of obtaining Juan Soto in free agency as well as a secondary deluge of Corbin Burnes debate, there have been a great many other free agent diatribes regarding Max Fried, Blake Snell and others. 

Somehow lost in this mix is the state of the Mets starting rotation now with the news this week dropping that the questionable QO to Luis Severino is not going to be accepted as the big man is looking to obtain a greater windfall in multiple years rather than a huge push in 2025 alone.  

Hmmm…well, on the plus side, refusing the QO does leave the Mets with a draft pick from the obtaining team.  On the minus side it leaves them with Kodai Senga, David Peterson, maybe Tylor Megill and maybe Jose Butto as a starting rotation.  

Severino was an interesting first year gamble for David Stearns.  He came in at a price that was by standards today a reasonable $13 million.  While he was not the strikeout type of pitcher he sometimes showed with the Yankees, he reinvented himself as a pitcher who used the entire plate and for the most part could be expected to deliver 6 quality innings per start.  

When the word came down that the Mets were offering him a $20 million plus QO, it was a little confusing as his 3.91 suggested he was a decent 3rd or 4th starter but was being offered second starter money.  In a way I was like David Stearns hoping that he would grasp a multiyear deal elsewhere instead of taking the high 2025 salary from New York with no guarantees beyond this upcoming season.  

Now, to be fair, we hear a lot of reporting this time of the year which should be classified as fiction, yet the story seems to have wings and if he leaves I don’t think anyone will shed too many tears (particularly not Tylor Megill).  The Mets need pitching in the worst way and after a hopefully healthy Senga and continued health from David Peterson it’s a whole lot of uncertainty.  

For now it would appear there are many lower level pitching possibilities out there like Walker Buehler, ex-Met Jose Quintana and others who could fill in some of the holes in the rotation assuming that one of the big guns may or may not be added to fill out the top of the starting five.  

While everyone is indeed focused on pitching, let’s not forget the outfield dearth that needs to be addressed, the DH slot which is non-existent right now, the Pete Alonso contract and a multitude of relief pitchers who need to be wearing orange and blue when the season begins.

The important baseball dates have been given.  Decisions need to be made about tenders vs. non-tenders, accepting or declining QOs by free agents and the upcoming Winter Meetings when the general managers roll up their sleeves to get serious about trade possibilities and free agent signings.  For now it’s still mostly uncertainty, but the windfall of payroll dollars for the upcoming season leaves most fans and media somewhat enthusiastic.  

Remember 1969 - Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 6

November 19, 2024

 Today’s Birthdays

I will continue the birthday theme since I don’t have much of anything new to add to the hot stove conversation at this point.    There are just two Mets with birthdays on November 19:  Michael Tonkin and Francisco Alvarez.   Since I don’t see any way Michael Tonkin would generate much conversation, I’ll wish him a Happy Birthday and then ignore him for the rest of the article.    Let’s talk about our current starting catcher who is turning 23 today.   

 

I’m going to turn this into a reader comment interactive piece by posing a few questions:

 

a  a)    What will Francisco’s season be like in 2025?   And extrapolate that out to a career – what will his stat sheet look like when he is all done?  

    b)    He is under team control through the 2028 season with arbitration eligibility in 2026.   What path should the Mets take with his contract? 

 As long as I am here, I’ll take the first stab:

 (1)    I am optimistic that he had a learning year in 2024 and he will be the hitter we have all been wishing for in 2025.  Depending on who they get to protect him in the order (Soto?   Alonso?),  I am thinking .260/30 to 35 homers/90 RBI is a good target.  For his career, I think perhaps Yadier Molina or Salvador Perez might be a good comp for a floor with Pudge Rodriguez or Mike Piazza being a (big) stretch as the ceiling.   I seriously doubt he could get to Pudge numbers (68.7 bWAR and .292 lifetime BA) but he is just turning 23 today  😊

     (2)   I think with a good start to 2025, a 6 or 8 year buyout of his arbitration years and a few years of his late twenties would be a nice all-star break deal.   I don’t think he’ll get a Tatis type 14 year deal as a catcher. 

 

Comment away with your projections for the now 23 year old!   Happy Birthday Francisco!

 

 

SAVAGE VIEWS – RUMORS AND SPECULATION

The Hot Stove League is underway and the Mets are supposedly in the running for every free agent since Steve Cohen has unlimited funds to spend. I’m going to guess that when all is said and done, the team will make prudent decisions to keep the team under the salary cap.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Speculation is that Juan Soto will sign with one of the Red Sox, Yankees or Mets, with the Mets being the favorite. Recently, someone posted that Judge was a better player than Soto. While both are potential Hall of Famers, Soto is by far the more impactful player. Look no further than the past World Series performances of both. 

Adding Soto to the Mets roster automatically makes them betting favorites to challenge the Dodgers for the top spot. Alonso could then be retained, under a reasonable contract, to form a starting lineup that would be second to none. However, I have never been in favor of long-term contracts and believe they eventually become an albatross around your neck.

RUMORS

The rotation for 2025 is a big question mark at this point with only Peterson and Senga signed for next year. I would love to have Scott Manaea re-signed as SP3. He has shown the ability to be a top of the rotation arm. Corbin Burnes or Max Fried would look good in a Mets uniform with Burnes as my preferred choice for SP1.

Recent news has the Mets making an offer to Yusei Kikuchi, an intriguing lefty who could fill the SP5 role. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

SPECULATION

The Mets have several prospects that would interest other teams if they decide to go the trade route. The one getting the most circulation is trading some combination of Jett Williams, Rony Mauricio, Blade Tidwell and Brett Baty for Garrett Crochet. 

In my humble opinion, giving up top prospects for Crochet would be insane. Why would you give away your future when there is so much talent available through free agency? The Mets are currently one of the oldest teams in MLB. It’s time to make room for the prospects ready to graduate.

Ray

November 19, 2024

 

MACK – Tuesday Morning Observations

 

Ken Rosenthal                    Ken_Rosenthal

Right-hander Justin Jarvis has signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers, source tells The Athletic. Jarvis, a fifth-round pick of the Brewers in 2018, was traded to the Mets for Mark Canha in 2023. He split last season between AA and AAA, working as a starter and reliever.

 

Mike Mayer            @mikemayer22

The Mets have signed outfielder Rafael Ortega to a minor league deal. He gets an invite to major league camp.

Ortega played in 47 games for the 2023 Mets.

Mike Mayer                        @mikemayer22

Betting odds to land Corbin Burnes via DraftKings:

+450 Mets

+500 Red Sox

+550 Cubs

+600 Orioles

+750 Padres

+750 Any other team

+800 Dodgers

+850 Giants

+900 Tigers

+1000 Yankees

+1100 D-backs

+1500 Astros

 

New York Porch Sports                @nyporchsport

The Savannah Bananas requested a meeting with Juan Soto.

“They’re real players in this,” Jon Herman reported on his podcast.

 

Spotrac                     @spotrac

Per an AP MLB report, the Yankees will gain about $15M in additional revenue this coming season per their agreement to allow the #Rays to play their home games at Steinbrenner Field.

 

            Matt Weyrich                      @ByMattWeyrich

Largest salaries on the Rays’ payroll for next season:

1. New York Yankees ($15M)

T-2. Brandon Lowe ($10.5M)

T-2. Jeffrey Springs ($10.5M)

4. Yandy Díaz ($10M)

5. Pete Fairbanks ($3.817M)

 

National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum                      @baseballhall

The Year of the Pitcher was the year of Bob Gibson, who was named NL MVP OTD in 1968.

Over his last 25 starts of the season, he logged 23 complete games with 13 shutouts. In that stretch, he never worked fewer than eight innings per start.

 

Jim Koenigsberger            @Jimfrombaseball

 

"How can a guy win a game if you don't give  him any runs?"

"Philadelphia fans would boo funerals, an Easter egg hunt, a parade of armless war vets, and the Liberty Bell."

“Right now I feel that I’ve got my feet on the ground as far as my head is concerned.”

Bo Belinsky

 

"No one hit the ball harder than Frank Howard. He was the strongest I ever saw. I saw him hit a line drive off Whitey Ford at the stadium that Whitey actually jumped for, it was hit that low. It ended up  hitting the speakers behind the monuments in dead center. I told Whitey, later that it was lucky he didn't catch it because it would have drug him to death."

Mickey Mantle

 

As Hank Aaron came to the plate in the 1957 WS, Yogi tried to distract him by saying: “Henry, you’re holding your bat wrong. You’re supposed to hold it so you can read the trademark. You're gonna break that bat. You've got to to be able to read the label."

23 year old Hank Aaron calmly replied.

"Didn't come up here to read"

Aaron hit .322 that season

 

"There are some guys you go hitless against and it doesn’t bother you. What you tell yourself is, 'Well, I got a piece of him', or at least 'I fouled one off'. But this guy makes you go 0-for-4 & you feel humiliated. He doesn’t give you a single thing. He strips you naked right there in public. Trying to hit that thing he throws is like trying to hit dead weight"

Orioles Paul Blair on Vida Blue, 1971

39 starts, 24-8 record, 1.82 ERA, 24 complete games, eight shutouts, 301 strikeouts, 88 walks in 312 innings pitched.

 

“We have trouble because we have so many Negro & Spanish-speaking  players on this team. They are just not able to perform up to the white  ball player, when it comes to mental alertness. You can’t make most Negro & Spanish players have the pride in their team that you can get from white players.”

Mgr. Alvin Dark to Stan Isaacs of "Newsday",`64

Ernest Dove on YouTube: Why It's Time Mets Trade Prospects

Mets Prospect Guru, Ernest Dove, talks about why it's time the Mets trade Prospects on YouTube.  

For more of Ernest's wisdom and lots of great Mets Prospect Videos subscribe to Ernest's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ernestdove.

You can watch on YouTube or below.

Reese Kaplan -- Less Soto Scribble and Time for Action

Some folks are patient, waiting in the wings with a slow heartbeat and shallow breathing, making themselves into a low key yet sustainable weapon when it comes to winning a battle.  Others are like vintage Mike Tyson (prior to this past weekend’s embarrassing debacle at age 58), charging in with guns blazing and hoping to catch opponents off guard with the explosive and unexpected depth charge obliterating things in the very first round.  Then there are folks in between who can be patient — to a point.  They can be decisive — to a point.  They can adjust their game play based upon circumstances at hand.

These differentiation come to mind when it comes to the the many hunters attempting to bag the biggest prize in the baseball off season frontier in Juan Soto.  To hear the media folks tell it the in-person meetings this past week with the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets seem to show that this pursuit is in high gear between these three teams while others that have been mentioned in the baseball guesswork like San Francisco, Houston and Toronto, well, it would seem that you tend to convince your fans you were after the best of the best but wound up with a huge swing and miss.

Regarding the New York Mets, let’s get a little bit more attuned to analyzing the three levels at which they themselves can appreciate gaining Soto, accept the high prices for Soto and starting the excuse making for missing out on Soto.  All of these scenarios is entirely possible, but first what is it that you’d be getting?

Juan Soto made his major league debut as a rookie with the Washington Nationals at the ripe old age of 19 by playing in 116 games, finishing his rookie season with a .292 batting average, slugging 22 HRs, driving in 70 runs with a 46 game deficit compared to his competitors.  In 2019 he played in 150 games and while the batting average dipped to “just” .282, he upped the run production numbers to 34 HRs and 110 RBIs.  To streamline things a bit, he’s now finished 7 seasons in major league baseball before hitting free agency.  He is averaging .285 per 162 games with 35 HRs and 102 RBIs.  All of these numbers are outstanding (as well as annual WAR of 6.3).  However, the one that really jumps out is his reversal of youthful aggression where strikeouts outweighed patience at the plate.  Now he’s average more walks than strikeouts per season by a wide margin.  Perhaps that’s why his one year in the Bronx resulted in his highest ever HR total with 41, and continued run production with 109 RBIs. 

On the down side, the annual 6.3 WAR is reduced by his less than stellar defensive play in the outfield.  At this age he’s likely going to roam around in right for the next many years but he most definitely has a long term transition to DH in his future.  Mets fans well know what it’s like to stomach substandard defense in exchange for incredible offense.  Think Mike Piazza.

Win Soto At Any Cost

This approach is as much about accounting as it is about winning ballgames.  There’s no question that if healthy, Soto is annually going to be in the game’s top 5 offensive players.  There’s no reason to believe that magnitude of offense would suffer in Queens.  So think about Shohei Ohtani’s contract, rather than his ability on the field.  The Dodgers did seem to come at the negotiations not just with the $700 million number, but they had him sign major deferrals of that money in order to free up current capital to use to build out the rest of the roster needs.  Towards that end it may be that Steve Cohen is not simply going to wave the biggest checkbook, but that he’s also going to emulate how to run a business.

Swallow Hard and Give Him What He Wants

Soto’s agent is Scott Boras.  The top player agent is never one to volunteer leaving money on the table.  His compensation is based upon a percentage of whatever he can get for his client.  Consequently no matter what Steve Cohen offers to Juan Soto, Boras’ job is to say it’s not enough.  Unlike the Wilpons and others who preceded them, you get the feeling that Steve Cohen will keep upping the ante beyond a comfortable level if indeed he feels that Soto will become the cornerstone of the franchise for the rest of his baseball career.  People won’t be happy if the annual rate crosses the $55 million range but they would accept it as a business necessity.  Word leaked out over the weekend that the Mets offer to Soto is $660 million.  Boras probably wants $701 million or more to get bragging rights for salary.

Hold the Line And Plan Accordingly

Here’s where real baseball becomes a bit more like a fantasy game than the real one.  If you have a finite limit to what you can afford to allocate to a single player, realize that his new deal capturing perhaps 30-35% of your annual payroll makes it very difficult to respond to other roster needs.  Instead of spending say $52 million per year on Soto (deferred or not), what if you obtained two $26 million players to help with pitching and offense, thus reducing the risk of one injury taking out the entire planned 12-14 years of Soto productivity.  The Mets are assuredly working already on multiple roster permutations both with and without Soto (just as they are doing with and without Alonso, with and without Manaea, and with and without Severino).  In this scenario you have to be very sure of your likelihood of obtaining multiple others whose overall WAR would exceed what you’d get alone from Soto plus fringe players you’re left being able to afford.

Right now the decision to be made by Soto and Boras is most definitely holding up other contract offers to other players from being made, so count me among the crowd hoping to have it wrapped up by Thanksgiving.  Still, the longer it takes the higher the numbers are likely to go, so I wouldn’t bet on it happening until closer to Christmas.

2025 Draft Prospect - RHP - Riley Orr - Vermont State

 

Brian Recca (@brian_recca) posted at 10:30 AM on Wed, Oct 09, 2024:

RHP Riley Orr

GR | '25 eligible

6'1-200

Some really good looking sliders here. Orr was getting spin rates consistently in the 2,900-3000+ rpm range. Was also 90-92 t93 with his fastball, showing solid command to his arm side.

https://castletonsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/riley-orr/9806 -

2023: Appeared in 11 games, starting 10 … Went 4-5 on the mound, leading the Spartans with a 3.56 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts … Held opponents to .245 batting average … Posted seven shutout innings with career-high 14 punchouts against MUW (3/11) … Pitched 8.0 scoreless frames while fanning 10 at Fisher (3/18) … All-LEC Third Team selection … Named LEC Pitcher of the Week three times in a row (3/6, 3/13, 3/20).

2022: Posted 3-6 record in 14 games, making a team-high 10 starts ... Pitched first complete game against Plymouth State (4/23) ... Finished second on the team with 39 strikeouts

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=736771 –

2020 Fall Gulf Coast Showcase 

Riley Orr is a 2022 C/OF with a 6-1 165 lb. frame from Maryville, TN who attends Maryville. Slender young athletic build with lots of room to get stronger. Right handed hitter, hits from a spread stance with a leg pull back load, well timed in his shift, polished hitter who has a feel for the barrel and works gap to gap, will continue to improve his bat speed and power potential with additional strength. 

7.42 runner in the sixty, sets up in a narrow stance behind the plate, two-step transition coming out of his stance to throw the ball, long arm action in back, makes accurate throws with good raw arm strength and carry, can continue to improve defensively with continued improvements in his fundamentals.

2025 Draft Prospect - RHP - Blake Gillespie - Charlotte. -

 

Aaron Fitt                 @aaronfitt

Like what I'm seeing early on from Charlotte RHP Blake Gillespie, a transfer from Georgia, who fans 2 in a 1-2-3 first, with command of a 92-94 fastball, firm but effective changeup and good slider. Nice addition for 49ers.

 

https://www.redandblack.com/sports/who-s-in-and-who-s-out-georgia-baseball-2024-transfer-portal-tracker/article_143d73aa-2f2f-11ef-a44b-0f5abf1cd9a6.html -

Blake Gillespie (RHP, Charlotte): Gillespie is entering his third year of eligibility from Lucan, Ontario, Canada. He finished his two seasons at Georgia with a 13.74 ERA across 17 appearances.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=737980 –

2020 Southeast Top Prospect Games 

Blake Gillespie is a 2022 SS/RHP with a 6-0 165 lb. frame from Lucan, ON who attends Medway Secondary. Medium frame with a lean build proving to have plenty of room to fill out physically down the road. Ran a smooth 6.70 second sixty yard dash. Primary Shortstop, great first step as he shows range laterally. Confident in the glove as he scooped it and worked urgently into transfers. Arm strength showing in a big way as he threw it 92 mph across the diamond. 

Secondary Right-Handed Pitcher, worked with a fast paced motion and pace as he filled up the zone, proving to be efficient. Released from a high three-quarter slot and worked both sides of the dish with the fastball. Was up to 89 mph as it jumped out of hand. Flashed a plus changeup as well that faded late and proved to be a swing and miss pitch. Sawed batters off and projects in a big way on the mound. Switch Hitter, from the left-side, open front side to start. 

Toe lift to stride as he throws hands as the baseball with a linear swing path. Found barrels consistently and sprayed it to all fields. From the right-side, pinched front knee as he glides into stride with a higher leg lift. Looked to pull the baseball as he attacked the top half of the baseball. Was quick out of the box and utilized his speed on paths with smart reads.