6/9/14

Stephen Guilbert - Late Round Draft Picks, Two Agreements, and the Mets Overall 2014 Draft

The Mets completed their 2014 draft by selecting some projectable high school arms and up-the-middle athletes in the late rounds, much as they have the past three drafts under Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta. However, this draft shares little else in common with their other drafts.

Early in this draft, the Mets focused on power. Lots of it. From first overall pick OF Michael Conforto to community college slugger and likely 1st baseman Eudor Garcia-Pacheco and Florida slugging 1st baseman Dash Winningham in the 4th and 8th rounds, respectively, the preference appears to be power first, other skills later. This varies from previous drafts where multiple skills, defense, and speed were valued higher. Other than power, tall collegiate pitchers seemed to be a favorite in the first dozen rounds as well.

The reason I am not thrilled about this draft is that it seems to me that the Mets drafted for need rather than take the best player on the board. Whatever you think about Conforto specifically for the first pick, in later rounds there were better players on the board. Signability and slot come into play much more, however, past the first couple picks. Let's take a look at who they got on days two and three:


The pick I really like early is Ramos, a shortstop who many stated with confidence is the best defender in the entire draft. While most agree his bat lags far behind, a number of scouts also spoke highly about his projection as a hitter with some pop and an ability to be an average hitter. He seems like a slightly better version of SS Luis Guillorme and I am a big fan of players like that. 

The other pick early I really like is Tyler Moore, a catcher from LSU who has already agreed in principle to a contract to play baseball for the Mets. He will receive $280,000 as a signing bonus, above the $254,300 slot recommendation for that pick. The $25,700 extra (along with whatever surplus that will be needed for other over-slot picks) will probably mostly come from college senior Prevost and old college junior Weick, who should sign for well under slot. 

The other thing to notice is the average height--especially of the pitchers--taken in the first 15 rounds. 

I know little about the rest of the draft picks in the draft as the Mets went a completely direction as I would have at nearly every pick. One I do like is 16th-rounder Joel Huertas, a big and strong lefty from Puerto Rico: 



You figure a lot of the youngsters late in the draft will be over-slot guys and the rest of the college seniors will help work against the surplus of money spent. This should average out to something right around average slot for the entire draft. 

Notice the ten straight high-schoolers taken rounds 31-40. The Mets have done a good job getting players to sign on the dotted line in the past three drafts, but my guess is that the Mets are hoping 3-4 of those ten sign, including Tristian Gray and Jon Teaney, both strong prospects who will cost well over the $100,000 to forego college. 

Players already signed: 

RHP Josh Prevost (rumored)- 5th round
Tyler Moore (confirmed)- 6th round, $280,000 (slot- $254,300)

The Twitter rumor has RHP Provost at $280,000 as well which would be will under the $339,600 recommendation for the 145th pick slot in which they selected the local righty. 

Comment below. 

--SG


6 comments:

Anonymous said...

The big draft pick is in the 28th round keaton mckinney . Big rhp ranked in top 100 , wants big money... cross your fingers

Stephen Guilbert said...

For sure. I put the odds of signing him at <1% but it could happen. Definitely keeping fingers crossed but I don't see him or Bonfield signing and certainly not both. I just don't think we have the pool allocation for that. I could see us getting a few of those last ten, though. Bonfield grew up in Jersey and played ball there...I wonder if a local scout has known about him for a while and has a connection there..

Stephen Guilbert said...

Could help with the sign if we need it.

Tom Brennan said...

Organization needs bats - at some point we have to figure a way to become an above-average team again.

I think the emphasis on power guys will mean fences come in further. You invest in power, make their skill sets conducive to success.

Tom Brennan said...

We already have him, so this is a purely hypothetical question, but I wonder where Akeel Morris would have gone in this draft if he were a college guy? High first rounder?

Stephen Guilbert said...

Not sure...if he were a reliever and a successful one, perhaps late first or early second. But he'd be thrust to double-A..not low-A. tough comp...so I'd have to say well past the first 50 picks, imo